What Ukraine means for America and vice versa | On The Record
Summary
TLDRThis transcript from a TVP World segment discusses the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on Europe, specifically Poland and the region's security in the face of Russian aggression. The speakers debate whether a Kamala Harris presidency would ensure stability, continuing Biden's policies, while Donald Trump's possible return raises concerns over unpredictability and his softer stance toward Russia. The discussion touches on Ukraine, NATO, and the importance of U.S. involvement in maintaining transatlantic unity. The role of Polish-American voters and Trump's foreign policy approach are also explored.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ The upcoming U.S. election is one of the most consequential in recent history, with a significant focus on foreign policy and implications for Europe and Poland.
- 🌍 Europe, especially Poland, is concerned about the future of transatlantic unity, with foreign policy being a central topic in the U.S. election.
- 🇺🇸 Kamala Harris is seen as a candidate likely to continue Biden's stable foreign policies, while Donald Trump is viewed as a disruptive force who may change the global order.
- 🇵🇱 Poland and the Baltic states are concerned about potential Russian aggression if Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine, with fears that he could target these regions next.
- 🛡️ Trump is perceived as more sympathetic to Putin and less supportive of Ukraine, which worries many in Europe who see U.S. support as crucial for regional security.
- 📊 Polish-American voters, particularly in the Midwest, may lean towards Kamala Harris, given her recognition of Poland's importance and policies favorable to European security.
- 🤝 Poland might benefit diplomatically from its relationship with both Trump and the Democratic Party, positioning it well regardless of the election outcome.
- ⚖️ A Trump presidency could bring unpredictability in foreign policy, potentially shifting the balance in how the U.S. engages with NATO, Ukraine, and global security.
- 💬 Trump's transactional view of foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and Russia, is seen as risky, potentially weakening Western alliances and emboldening autocrats.
- 🕊️ The possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with a third-party mediator like China or India potentially playing a role, but the U.S. election outcome could greatly impact this process.
Q & A
What is the significance of the upcoming US elections for Europe and Poland?
-The upcoming US elections are considered highly consequential for Europe and Poland due to the potential for significant changes in foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia and the stability of transatlantic unity.
How does the perception of Kamala Harris' potential presidency impact Europe?
-Kamala Harris is perceived as likely to continue President Biden's policies, which have been seen as positive for Europe, suggesting a stable foreign policy approach in contrast to the perceived chaos associated with a potential Trump presidency.
What are the concerns regarding a potential Trump presidency's impact on foreign policy?
-There are concerns that a Trump presidency would bring unpredictable changes to foreign policy, potentially harming transatlantic unity and benefiting Russia's interests, as suggested by his past comments and attitudes.
What is the role of Polish Americans in the upcoming US elections?
-Polish Americans, with significant populations in the Midwest and Pennsylvania, could play a crucial role in the elections. However, their voting patterns are similar to typical Americans, and they are likely to vote based on broader issues rather than solely their links to Poland.
How does the current US policy towards Ukraine align with European interests?
-The current US policy, which supports Ukraine against Russian aggression, aligns with European interests as it is seen as a strategic move to prevent further expansion by Russia into Europe, particularly towards Poland and the Baltic states.
What are the implications of Trump's comments on Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky?
-Trump's comments reflect a transactional view of Ukraine and its president, potentially indicating a willingness to make deals that could be detrimental to Ukraine's interests, such as accepting Russia's territorial gains.
How might a change in US administration affect Poland's diplomatic relations?
-A change in US administration could affect Poland's diplomatic relations, as Poland maintains close ties with both Trump and the current US administration. However, Poland's position as sympathetic to both US political camps is seen as advantageous.
What is the importance of a consistent and predictable US foreign policy for Europe?
-A consistent and predictable US foreign policy is valued for maintaining strong bilateral ties and ensuring stability in relations. However, the current situation with Russia's aggression has already introduced instability, making the need for a robust policy towards Ukraine crucial.
What are the potential dangers of an inconsistent US foreign policy under a Trump presidency?
-An inconsistent US foreign policy could bring instability and unpredictability, which are detrimental to international security, particularly concerning NATO allies and countries like Ukraine that rely on the US for support against Russian aggression.
How does the script suggest Europe should prepare for a potential Trump presidency?
-The script implies that Europe should prepare by having a clear strategy towards Russia and considering various diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation, given the unpredictability and potential friendliness of a Trump presidency towards Putin.
What is the role of the US in mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine according to the script?
-The script suggests that the US, being directly involved in the conflict through its support for Ukraine, may not be the best candidate to mediate peace. Instead, it proposes the need for a third party, such as China or India, to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Outlines
🎤 Election Stakes: U.S. and Its Impact on Europe
The host, Aaron Dman, introduces the upcoming U.S. election, highlighting its importance for Europe, especially Poland. Kamala Harris is seen as a potential stabilizing force, while Donald Trump’s return is feared to disrupt the global order. The conversation focuses on how the U.S. election could reshape the future of transatlantic relations, with foreign policy playing a key role.
🌍 Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Europe's Concerns
Martin Batki, a Polish MP, and Magdalena Yakubova, a policy analyst, discuss the differing foreign policy approaches of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Batki suggests that a Harris win would maintain stability, whereas a Trump victory could bring chaos, especially regarding Ukraine. Yakubova expresses concern over Trump’s policies, stressing that Eastern Europe benefits greatly from the current transatlantic relationship.
🗳️ The Polish-American Vote and Its Influence
Yakubova notes that Polish-Americans largely vote similarly to other Americans, but Harris may gain more support due to her attention to Poland in her campaign. The discussion then shifts to the close ties between Poland and both U.S. candidates, with Batki expressing relief that Polish President Duda didn’t directly support Trump’s campaign, as it could have strained relations if the opposite side won.
⚖️ Foreign Policy: Stability vs. Instability
Batki emphasizes the importance of consistent foreign policy, especially given the instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While current U.S. policies have been beneficial, a potential Trump presidency could introduce unpredictability, which is dangerous for Europe. Yakubova and Batki agree that Europe should prepare for any changes, but it's hard to predict Trump's exact approach toward Russia and NATO.
🛡️ The Role of the U.S. in Global Security
The conversation explores the idea of the U.S. as a guarantor of global security. Batki criticizes Trump’s inconsistent foreign policy, fearing it could destabilize NATO, which is crucial for Polish and European security. Yakubova suggests that other global players like China or India might step in if the U.S. loses its leadership role, but the West must be prepared for any shifts in global power dynamics.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡US Elections
💡Kamala Harris
💡Donald Trump
💡Foreign Policy
💡Poland
💡Ukraine Conflict
💡Vladimir Putin
💡Transatlantic Unity
💡NATO
💡Polish-Americans
Highlights
Aaron Darman hosts the show discussing the upcoming US election and its impact on Europe and Poland.
Kamala Harris is seen as a potential stabilizer in global uncertainty.
Donald Trump is portrayed as a potential disruptor to foreign policy norms.
Poland's foreign policy is a central topic in the US election debate.
Martin Batki, a Polish MP, discusses the potential outcomes of the US election for Poland.
Magdalena Yakubov, a policy analyst, shares her views on the election's implications for Europe.
Concerns are raised over the future of transatlantic unity post-election.
Batki suggests a Trump presidency could be a danger to the current favorable policies towards Europe.
Yakubov agrees with Harris's warning that Putin could target Poland and the Baltic states.
The importance of US support for Ukraine is emphasized by both guests.
Polish Americans' voting patterns are discussed, with a prediction that they may lean towards Harris.
Batki considers the potential benefits for Poland of President Duda's relationship with Trump.
The show debates the value of consistent vs. unpredictable foreign policy.
Yakubov expresses concern over Trump's attitude towards Putin and its global implications.
The discussion touches on Trump's past comments on withdrawing the US from NATO.
Zelensky's recent visit to the US and its strategic importance are analyzed.
The potential impact of the US election on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is considered.
Transcripts
[Music]
good evening and welcome to on the
record I'm Aaron dman filling in for
Adam
yaser in just over a month America goes
to the polls in what is shaping up to be
one of the most consequential us
elections in recent history on one hand
there are hopes carela Harris would
deliver stability at a time of global
and domestic uncertainty on the other
Donald Trump is being vaunted as the
former president who plans to tear up
the rule book once again for Europe and
Poland foreign policy is at the heart of
this debate so how will November's
election change the game for the region
on the record Europe maintains it will
keep a strong relationship with the US
regardless of what happens but off the
Record it's clear serious concerns
remain over the future of transatlantic
Unity now the election campaign has been
in full flight this week and again
Poland was a Hot Topic let's take a
listen history has shown us if we allow
aggressors like Putin to take land with
impunity they keep going and Putin could
set its sights on Poland the Baltic
states and other NATO allies the United
States cannot and should not isolate
ourselves from the rest of the world
isolation is not
insolation so then the United States
supports Ukraine not out of Charity but
because it is in our strategic interest
we will continue to provide the security
assistance Ukraine needs to succeed on
the
battlefield here to discuss all of this
right here in the studio is Martin batki
current polish MP of the Civic Coalition
a liberal and Centrist party the biggest
of the ruling Block in Poland and former
polish ambassador to Canada good evening
good evening and also joining me is
Magdalena yakubova who is a vice
president at the rubla foundation and
has previously served as the Director of
operations at the US Think Tank Center
for European policy analyst thank you
for taking the time good evening happy
to be here Mr batki I want to start with
you the perception is that carela Harris
will provide a stable foreign policy
response while Donald Trump equals chaos
is it as simple as that and does that
mean Europe is desperate for Harris
win I would say it's a little bit
simplistic uh view but yes uh I presume
that if Kamala Harris wins she will um
continue most of uh President Biden's
policies which were generally very
positive to Europe and especially to our
region whereas um for sure
um former president Trump if he wins
will deliver a change as well as in uh
foreign policy as well as in uh in
domestic uh
policies uh and change is always um
uh a danger if the previous policy is
quite all right which I think the the
Biden's policy is quite all right so is
a potential Trump change a
danger it might be because what we heard
especially in his running mates uh Mr
V's speech and proposal for uh so-called
peace in Ukraine is
basically uh a surrender to two main uh
Putin's demands which is uh I Putin
Russia keep all the lands I conquered
and secondly and maybe even more
importantly for us uh Ukraine will never
join uh Western structures European
union and NATO that's that's basically
uh delivering Putin his
goals Magdalen just on the last day as
we heard in that intro CA Harris has
again warned that Vladimir Putin could
quote set his sights on Poland and the
Baltic states if he is allowed to win in
Ukraine is she right is that what you
make of of what's happening in the
region too I I very much agree with um
Miss Harris uh regarding that idea that
if Putin is not stopped he will go even
further and take advantage of a weaker
spots of of the West so um that's very
much possible and the threat would
definitely grow uh if the peace talks or
uh or if there's any progress in the War
uh in the battlefield in Ukraine do you
agree with um Mr bat's comments that
there might be a danger with the Trump
presidency when it comes to the war in
Ukraine but also for the
region of course uh we had Vis Secret
inside that uh that I represent here is
we we see that there is a a difference
in the attitude uh uh between the
candidates of course Mr Trump I'm not
saying that he's bringing chaos but the
policies as uh as Mr bosski also
confirmed will be different there will
be a change and the policy now ongoing
Democrats uh policies towards the region
is quite favorable and we benefit a lot
on this transatlantic bond that we saw
far or have if if this is Poland or if
these are other countries in the region
both the btic Baltic states or Romania
we all are in the same basket of being
in a in a strong bond with uh with the
US uh
Partners I want to ask you about the
number of polls in the US too because
there are a lot of them 8.8 million
polish Americans about 3 million in the
midwest 800,000 in Pennsylvania what do
you think will be top of mind for them
when voting given their links to Poland
and the
region the links to Poland they don't
change much of their attitude uh in in
many researches that have been done the
their uh type of the way they vote is
very similar to the typical Americans uh
um voting right they they share the same
problems they share the same uh
successes uh in politics have the same
similar idea however they are it's easy
to to foresee how they vote uh therefore
I think that um Kamala Harris would
benefit a little more from uh from votes
from polish uh minorities do you think
she'll she'll get
it uh I I think she would get those
votes because uh because she is at least
very um she's mentioning Poland this is
this is important for polls whom so far
have been IGN ignored in a sense uh in
terms of uh of
Elections uh and now this is very
important the the difference in between
the votes between the candidates is so
narrow that every vote counts Mr bazazi
could the argument be made that Poland
is actually in a good position when it
comes to this election I mean you've got
president Andre studa seemingly quite
close with Trump he was going to appear
uh reportedly at a rally with Trump and
then your governing Coalition on the
other side of the aisle is it a
diplomatic win-win whoever is
President you know I I think that the
the quite um close ties between
President Duda and and uh former
president Trump are not bad uh for
Polish interest because that might
soften a little bit this um um uh trade
manner of uh Trump's foreign policy uh
and it could somehow help Poland
although I think it's good that
President Duda was
not um holding um you know uh rally
political rally and election rally
together with uh uh candidate Trump
because that would be the the direct
involvement in US election campaign
which I think would would not be uh
particularly wise would you have seen
that as unacceptable from someone of his
standing as a president of a country
yeah I think it it it would be um at
least strange for you know diplomatic
standards uh and uh it would cost us I
mean
Poland uh if uh the opposite side uh
would win but uh saying that I I really
think that
uh contrary to to Ukraine which
obviously is uh very unpopular in uh
Trump circles and also with himself uh
what he stated many times uh Poland is
somehow uh sympathetic to both camps in
in the US which is good and
it's fundamentally it is good that
polish and Central Europe security is
the topic of this election this is
probably
more credit to to Mrs Harris uh she
mentioned that more often but uh it's
good that this is the topic of the US
elections between because this is the
still the only Western superpower uh
which is we we like it or not the
guarantee of our security given your
background as an ambassador I'm
interested to look into sort of the
concept of foreign policy I mean
consistent and predictable foreign
policy is often seen as this Benchmark
for strong bilateral ties keep it boring
because then everyone knows what you're
up to but do you see an environment
where the foreign policy of major
superpowers like the US for example
under a trump presidency becomes
inconsistent and unpredictable and what
does that do to the
world yeah uh you know
um the stability of relations Is a
value but Frankly Speaking since
February
2022 nothing is stable in our part of
the world because of Putin so uh when
you have actually a good policy which is
uh to help Ukraine win this war it's not
ideal policy because I for example very
much uh uh criticize the Restriction
restrictions which US imposes on use of
its uh Weaponry for
Ukraine uh but but it's a good policy u
i mean both from uh European NATO
members and especially from from us side
uh then uh changing that could
bring um instability and danger of
unknown uh future in terms of security
which always this is a bad bad sign
therefore I U strongly uh hope that
after us elections the um United States
policy toward NATO toward its allies and
toward Ukraine will change uh not much
and Magdalena just lastly for the
segment can I ask you is it even
possible for Europe to prepare itself
for someone like Trump I mean you this
is a guy who talks about Russ quote
obliterating Ukraine and is uh by his
own admission quite cozy with Vladimir
Putin can Europe be prepared for
something like that or should Europe be
worried so of course we can prepare for
that um I'm I mean many scholars think
tanks already are already ready but it's
hard it's it's hard and we don't know
right but um uh but still I think that
something that worries
um the opinion public all over the world
most is the attitude of Mr Trump towards
Mr Putin and this that this is let's say
a little friendly or uh more
transactional uh attitude is not um um
is easy to be provisioned and E easy to
be responded in a sense there are
different diplomatic also uh efforts
that can be taken in advance or later
pre-planned uh so to me a response would
be that Europe specifically the EU
countries should have the idea what to
do with Russia and in this way um help
um kind of stabilize the situation or
the attitude of Mr Trump uh and the way
he acts towards Russia now talking of
Vladimir Putin let's take a look into
the specific question of Ukraine when it
comes to the US election and how this is
all playing out on the
ground as Ukraine continues to seek
additional help from its allies the
country's President Vladimir zalinski
paid a recent visit to the state of
Pennsylvania on the sidelines of the
United Nations General
Assembly cinski is the greatest salesman
in history every time he comes into the
country he walks away with $60 billion
[Applause]
billion walks in with $60 billion he
wants them to he wants them to win this
election so
badly Trump's comments follow zelinsky's
visit to the Scranton Army ammunition
plant in
Pennsylvania Please Mr President can you
talk to us now the main goal of
zelinsky's US tour was to present his
comprehensive Victory plan to President
Biden lawmakers and international
Partners Putin has broken so many many
International norms and rules that he
want stop on his own Russia can only be
forced into peace and that is exactly
what's needed zelinsky's visit has paid
off so far late on Thursday Biden
announced a sizable security assistance
package for Ukraine right now we have to
strengthen Ukraine's position on the
battlefield and that's why today I'm
proud to announce a new $2.4 billion
package of security assistance earlier
this week the White House announced the
authorization of a new military aid
package for Ukraine war 375 million us
the package includes for the first time
a medium-range Glide bomb known as The
Joint standoff weapon compatible with
F-16 fighter
jets now magdalina I want to start with
you now because I saw you giggle a
little bit when Donald Trump made that
comment about Vladimir zalinski being a
Salesman what does that type of comment
tell us about how Trump views Ukraine
and the war in this
region uh it's it's been a very
populistic comment that's why I was I
was so much uh giggling uh uh the truth
is like um Mr Trump sees it as um as as
a kind of a a a moment where he can be a
star and he can finish up and rule the
world and you know finish up the war
being this um this person who makes
America great again you know lead uh so
this geopolitical factor is of course in
his uh in his opinion very important to
have America or us being again like the
the the main actor of uh on the on this
world stage but um this doesn't change
the the fact that uh um Mr this attitude
is uh is very transactional and may
bring some uh not very positive uh
especially for Ukraine not very positive
outcomes now Mr batki when we look at
the election in the US and obviously
Trump makes a comment like that but as
we sit here talking about the potential
Fallout of the election all the things
that could happen in this region do you
think Americans actually care if the US
is involved in Ukraine in Europe or not
you know it's always uh the question who
you ask uh because there are those who
care and there are many those
who don't care that much of course maybe
two years ago when this fullscale war
started uh Ukraine had much more
sympathy in in us than it has now and it
was not such a partisan issue as it is
now
unfortunately now it has changed because
also of the election campaign because of
the I would say the the psychological
hostility of trump toward Ukraine which
I think dates back to to the to his
um uh consistent view that Ukraine
somehow helped uh son of President
Biden um when he uh made uh his
businesses there in in in Ukraine so the
problem with Trump is that I don't see
he has consistent world view or uh
principles of his foreign policy he's
fascinated by
Putin uh he uh likes to be with strong
leaders like Kim zun or uh other strong
men in the world it's it's
um on on the Democratic ticket
you you don't have to love what you get
but you know what you get with Trump
there will be a change how um deep of a
change we don't know but I must add one
more
thing the in the first Trump uh
Administration foreign policy was
run
by they were called calling them Elder
Statesmen those who were traditional
establishment Republicans in foreign
policy
for um decades uh General matis John
Bolton etc etc I think it it is going to
change if Trump wins because all of them
at the end of their tenure with him or
after his term um denounced him and said
that he's not
um responsible and serious uh policy
maker so I think it will be quite
difficult uh to predict a bunch of
people who will run US security and
foreign policy which again as we
mentioned before brings a factor of
instability to the table which is not
good you mentioned that Trump likes to
Get Cozy with strongman Kim jongan in
North Korea for example uh and and her
breth Magdalena said the word autocrats
do you believe that someone like Kim
Jong-un like Vladimir Putin is an
autocrat you know some say that Trump
wants to um please Putin with the
outcome of the Ukraine war to take him
back from Alliance with China which of
course is geopolitically the main uh
World rival for for us I don't believe
this is the case I believe that in
Trump's um uh world view this is just oh
I will I will bring peace at all costs
and concentrate on foreign policy if
Trump has any foreign policy instincts
this is I don't care about the world uh
he he want it it is on the record from
his former advisers he wanted to
withdraw or contemplated to withdraw us
from from NATO for us with our
geostrategic um geography
under the long shadow of Russia it's
it's dangerous yes or no is Vladimir
Putin an
autocrat of course of course Magdalena I
want to ask you about this renewed talk
about peace so to try and get Russia and
Ukraine at the same table Russia doesn't
seem to want to come to the table now
where too next from here does the US
play a role in mediating that peace and
does the US election then impact what
that role looks like because Trump and
CA Harris have such different views
where do we go from here
it's a it's a difficult uh question now
who would be the because we need the
third party right who would push uh Mr
Putin to to sit down at this table to
who would make sure that uh Mr zalinski
has this feeling that he can really
negotiate in the sense that there is a a
a pool of of solutions that can be taken
at the table so we need this third party
party and that would not probably be us
this is because us is engaged in the um
in the in the war this is the NATO of
course Alliance uh that that is involved
uh so um admittedly there are a few
candidates China wants to be one of
those uh which is also not uh not the
best idea but um but also um such a such
a country as as India has its uh reasons
to to play a role in this um in this
let's
say play of uh of uh of
geopolitical um
um connections right so hopefully there
will be we will agree finally and uh and
find a a global so partner that uh that
could gather this uh this round table
where we can sit down and talk um it is
important and now very crucial to have
Mr Putin at that table not to repeat the
I'm sorry to say a failure from
Switzerland um in in June a long road to
come magdalina yakobov and matchin batki
thank you again for your time thank you
thank you and good night and that's on
the record for tonight thank you for
watching us here on TVP world I'm Aaron
Darman goodbye for now
[Music]
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