一口气了解全球经济 (下) | 我是怎么分析经济问题的
Summary
TLDR在本期视频中,主讲人继续探讨全球经济展望,重点关注了过去两年中美国和欧洲的经济情况。美国经济显示出令人费解的稳定性,尽管面临诸多问题,如债务和商业房地产的挑战,但消费驱动的经济增长和政府对供应端的刺激措施似乎有效抑制了预期中的衰退。相比之下,欧洲经济显得无力,尤其是德国,面临高利率和能源危机的双重打击,导致经济增长乏力。视频最后,主讲人分享了自己分析经济展望时的方法论和思维框架,并通过具体数据和政策分析,为观众提供了一个清晰的经济状况总览。
Takeaways
- 🇺🇸 美国经济在2023年表现出稳健的增长,GDP增长约2.5%,通胀率从高点的9%下降到不足4%,失业率保持在历史低位以下4%,工资增长强劲约5%,股市因生成式AI的帮助而上涨近30%。
- 📉 2022年布隆伯格报道,经济学家给出美国100%会陷入短期衰退的概率,然而2023年的数据显示美国经济稳如老狗,甚至颠覆了菲利普斯曲线。
- 🛍️ 美国消费者对利率的敏感度降低,加之之前的低利率环境下的大规模刺激措施和贷款需求的释放,使得加息对经济的影响有限。
- 💰 美国居民在疫情前的低利率环境和经济发展势头强劲中积累了额外储蓄,加之政府疫情期间的财政补贴,使得即便面临利率上升和物价上涨,消费者仍能保持消费水平。
- 🏗️ 美国政府的财政刺激政策,包括基础设施投资刺激,继续发挥效果,助推经济增长。
- 🏦 美国面临的潜在风险包括商业房地产市场的不确定性和政府债务问题,这些问题可能对未来经济稳定构成威胁。
- 🇪🇺 欧洲经济在2023年增长缓慢,GDP增长仅0.4%,面临能源危机和供应链问题的挑战,尤其是德国经济受到重创。
- 🔋 德国面临的挑战包括高利率、财政紧缩、能源危机和汽车行业的电气化冲击,这些因素共同导致其经济衰退。
- 💡 观察经济时,可以从GDP、CPI和失业率这三个基本指标入手,进而深入分析政府的财政政策、中央银行的货币政策以及重要资产价格等,构建起完整的经济分析框架。
- 📊 分析经济问题时,应从主要矛盾和关键因素出发,避免陷入细节而忽视了问题的核心。
Q & A
为什么2022年经济学家给美国经济100%的衰退概率?
-因为在2022年末,美国面临高通胀、快速加息、经济紧缩、能源危机、供应链短缺和股市下跌约20%等问题,这些因素使得市场普遍悲观,认为美国经济必将进入衰退。
2023年美国经济为何能保持稳定?
-尽管面临众多问题和风险,但美国经济在2023年表现出意外的稳定,主要得益于强劲的消费驱动、工资增长、股市上涨和通胀的降低。美国的消费者支出持续强劲,帮助抵消了加息和其他宏观经济挑战的影响。
美国消费为何如此强劲?
-美国消费者对利率变化的敏感度降低,疫情期间的大规模财政刺激措施和低利率环境下的储蓄积累,以及一些政府的财政刺激政策仍在发挥作用,共同推动了美国的消费强劲。
为什么即使面临加息,2023年美国的GDP和就业率仍然保持强劲?
-美国的强劲消费驱动了经济增长,加之供应侧的恢复和政府对供应侧的刺激,帮助缓解了加息对经济增长和就业的潜在负面影响。
2023年通胀为何下降?
-通胀下降主要是由于供应侧的恢复,包括能源和供应链问题的缓解,以及美国政府将刺激措施从需求侧转向供应侧,强化供应链和基础设施,从而帮助降低了通胀。
2023年,哪些因素对美国经济构成了潜在风险?
-美国经济面临的潜在风险包括政府债务问题的持续加剧、商业房地产市场的不稳定,以及高息环境下商业地产贷款到期可能导致的金融市场风险。
美国的消费数据为何在加息期间依然强劲?
-美国的消费数据强劲主要是由于消费者的额外储蓄、对利率变化的低敏感度,以及政府财政刺激政策的延续效应。
2024年美国经济增长预测是多少?
-国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测美国2024年经济增长为2.1%,世界银行预测为1.6%。
2023年欧洲经济为何表现不佳?
-欧洲经济在2023年增长缓慢(0.4%),主要受到2022年能源危机的重创,高利率和财政紧缩的影响,以及消费者倾向于储蓄而非消费的行为。
为什么说德国经济是欧洲最具代表性的负面案例?
-德国经济受到能源危机、汽车行业的挑战以及对俄罗斯天然气的依赖削弱等问题的严重影响,导致其在2023年表现不佳,经济收缩0.3%,成为欧洲经济增长率排名中的低位之一。
Outlines
🌍全球经济展望:美国篇
本段讨论了美国经济在过去两年的表现与经济学家的预期相悖,如何展现出异常的稳定性。尽管面对2022年经济学家对美国经济100%进入短期衰退的预测,2023年的数据显示美国经济不仅稳定,还出人意料地繁荣,包括GDP增长2.5%,通货膨胀率从高点9%下降到4%以下,以及失业率保持在历史低位。同时,股市因为生成式AI的帮助而大幅上涨。然而,也存在着一些问题,例如美国政府的债务问题和商业地产的挑战。
🏠美国经济面临的挑战与消费者行为
讨论了美国面对经济挑战时的消费者行为,解释了为何尽管面临利率上升和经济不确定性,美国消费者的消费依然强劲。原因包括低利率环境下的高额储蓄释放、额外储蓄的消耗、以及美国政府的财政刺激政策仍在发挥作用。尽管存在各种经济风险,如房地产市场的冷却和商业地产问题,但消费驱动的经济增长模式仍在持续,反映出美国消费者对利率变化的低敏感性和持续的消费动力。
🌆美国商业地产风险与债务问题
深入探讨了美国商业地产作为当前美国经济面临的最大风险之一,详细分析了由于疫情导致的远程工作趋势对商业地产需求的影响,以及随之而来的商业地产价格下跌和相关贷款问题。同时,提及了美国政府长期面临的债务问题,以及持续的利率上升可能对政府债务成本的影响,展现了这些问题对美国经济未来的潜在威胁。
🇪🇺欧洲经济展望:挑战与机遇
对欧洲经济在2023年的表现进行了回顾,指出其增长乏力,但避免了衰退。尤其聚焦于德国,作为受能源危机重创最严重的国家之一,其经济收缩明显,面临着高利率和财政紧缩的挑战。此外,探讨了欧洲各国普遍的消费者行为,即倾向于储蓄而非消费,以及由此带来的经济增长缓慢。分析了能源危机、汽车工业的挑战等因素对德国及其他欧洲国家经济的影响,指出欧洲经济的根本问题在于创新不足和人口老龄化。
📈经济分析框架与知识树
介绍了作者分析经济时的方法论,即通过建立“知识树”来理解复杂的经济现象。强调了经济、价格和就业这三个基本因素的重要性,并指出了财富差距作为一个被经济学家忽视但对人们生活非常重要的因素。通过细化到次级数据(如PMI、核心通胀率、零售销售等),结合政府的财政政策和中央银行的货币政策,形成了一个从宏观到微观,从关键点到细节的分析框架。同时,强调了在处理复杂经济问题时,要能够抓住主要矛盾,避免陷入细节中无法自拔。
🤝观众互动与结论
在视频的最后,鼓励观众分享自己对于视频主题或其他经济现象的看法和理解,以促进交流和讨论。同时,强调了moomoo平台在宏观数据收集和公司财务报告方面的价值,认为这能帮助用户简化复杂问题,寻找主要矛盾。最后,作者希望通过这两期视频,帮助观众更好地理解全球经济,建立起查看这个世界的视角和分析框架。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡GDP增长
💡通货膨胀率
💡失业率
💡货币政策
💡商业房地产
💡财政刺激政策
💡供应链
💡利率敏感性
💡能源危机
💡政府债务
Highlights
Introduction to the global economy outlook, continuing from discussing Japan's troubles and India's strength to the situation in the United States and Europe.
Analysis of the US economy's inexplicable stability despite predictions of recession, showcasing strong GDP growth, reduced inflation, and low unemployment rates in 2023.
Examination of the factors driving the strong US consumption, including low interest rate sensitivity, excess savings, and government fiscal stimulus policies.
Discussion on how the US managed to reduce inflation through supply side recovery and government subsidies, challenging the effectiveness of Fed's interest rate hikes.
Insight into the potential risks facing the US economy, focusing on commercial real estate challenges and the government's escalating debt problem.
Exploration of the European economy's struggle, particularly Germany's recession, the energy crisis, and challenges in the automotive industry.
Highlighting the importance of consumption as a key driver for economic growth, contrasting US spending habits with those in Europe and Japan.
A look at the implications of high interest rates on the housing market and the significant risk posed by the commercial real estate sector in the US.
Insights into the role of technological advancements and the stock market's performance, particularly the impact of generative AI, on the economy.
Presentation of the methodology for analyzing the economic outlook of countries, including the importance of a 'knowledge tree' for understanding complex economic relationships.
Examination of the central bank policies, interest rate adjustments, and their impact on economic indicators like GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates.
Discussion on the significance of fiscal stimulus, infrastructure investment, and supply-side reforms in mitigating inflation and stimulating economic growth.
Analysis of global economic trends, with a focus on the contrasting economic performances of the G7 countries.
Reflection on the unpredictability of economic trends and the challenge of forecasting in the face of geopolitical risks and market dynamics.
Final thoughts on the need for innovative approaches to economic analysis and the value of engaging with diverse perspectives to understand global economic complexities.
Transcripts
Hello, you must have been waiting for a long time
Today we'll continue with global economy outlook
In the last episode, we talked about Japan’s troubles and India’s strength.
In this episode, we will continue to talk about
the situation in the United States and Europe in the past two years.
At the end of the video
I'll share with you
some ideas and methodologies when I
look at the economic outlook of these countries
I will give you a brief peek at
my little knowledge tree.
Okay, without further ado, let’s first look at the United States
First, let me show you a comparison.
We'll take 2019 before the pandemic as a benchmark and
take a look at the GDP growth of the G7 countries.
It is very obvious that
the United States is far behind others
and the ones at the bottom
unsurprisingly, are Germany and United Kingdom
To sum up
US economy in one word
it might be words like strong, stable etc
but I would sum it up as
inexplicable
Why do I say this?
Saying that their economy is stable, which is normal
but it is inexplicably stable
So stable that it subverted the understanding of many economists
I'm not exaggerating
Look at this
Bloomberg's article in 2022
Economists have given a 100% probability
that the United States will fall into a short-term recession.
If you look at the US 2023 data
it is as steady as an old dog
even subverted the Phillips Curve
even the market was confused
It's like there is a person
if I punch him,
he doesn't get angry or fight back or scold me.
Instead, he treats me even better
It's just so inexplicable
So today let’s explore
what’s going on with this
First, as usual,
let’s take an overview of the U.S. economy.
In 2023, U.S. GDP growth is about 2.5%.
Inflation dropped from it's high point of 9%
to less than 4%.
The unemployment rate remained at a historical position of below 4%.
Wage growth remained very strong while
remaining around 5%.
The stock market rose by nearly 30% with the help of generative AI.
The central bank began to shrink its balance sheet and preparing to stop hiking up interest rates.
It was expected that things will start to return to normal in 2024.
However, at the same time, there are actually quite a lot of problems.
For example, the debt problem of the U.S. government,
which keeps breaking through the ceiling
the commercial real estate problem that you may often hear about.
We will talk about it in a moment
First, let's go back to
the 2022 Bloomberg report just now
Let's take a look at why the market expected that
US would 100% fall into recession.
Look at what the state of the US was at the end of 2022.
Inflation was flying in the sky, the Fed was raising interest rates rapidly.
economy is tightening,
and the world is facing an energy crisis, supply chain shortages,
and the U.S. stock market has fallen by about 20%.
Geopolitical risks are still very high
and more
Looking at this situation
who would be optimistic about the U.S. economy?
So everyone says it is 100% in recession
It was considered a bonus question at the time.
Then at the beginning of 2023,
not only did many banks in US collapsed
also the collapse of Credit Suisse,
which actually confirmed everyone’s expectations for the United States.
Although it was very turbulent
but the market had a certain feeling that
what should happen has happened
Who would have thought that
the US economy would suddenly change its course
The crisis in the banking industry did not spread to the real economy
and inflation also went down on its own.
Some may think that it's reasonable
that inflation has gone down
After all, the Fed is raising interest rates like crazy
but if you look at the GDP and employment rate of the US
they are still very strong
so it's amazing that it
hasn't been so affected by the interest rate hikes.
Actually, the problems and risks we just mentioned
are still there,
but there is a powerful force here
carrying all the burden
like wild horse
and pulling the GDP of the US forward.
This wild horse is
consumption
It's very strange
that Americans are really capable when it comes to spending money.
You should know that
although an economy is very complex
we talked about exports, chips and mortgages all day long
but in fact the most important
and most powerful engine
is actually the consumption of each of us.
Because if you spend one dollar, others will earn one dollar, right?
It might just be one dollar but
the economic gears will start to move.
Having such strong consumption in the US
drives Europe and Japan in jealousy.
For the past decades
they used up all tricks in the sleeve but still can't bring consumption up
Everyone just doesn't spend money.
The United States is just the opposite. x
it doesn't matter how much you raise the interest rates
Everyone still buys things aggressively.
Look at the consumption data of the United States.
It doesn't look like there's an interest rate hike
There's only a dip during pandemic
and after that it still goes up
it's like being drawn with a ruler.
And the retail data,
they don't drop even a little
What are people buying?
Actually its services are declining
It is similar in every country during pandemic
But in the US there's a strong growth of
something called Durable Goods
Durable Goods
such as electronic products,
fitness equipment, bicycles, etc.
Why do you think it is?
Why is it that depsite
the Fed raised interest rates to such a rate
U.S. consumption is still rushing forward like a stubborn donkey,
no, like a wild horse keeps moving up
To be honest,
I'm not exactly sure too.
Even the market does not have a consistent explanation.
After all,
economists have predicted a 100% recession before
now they are being slapped in the face
so they can only look for some small reasons,
which may more or less have some
impact on stimulating consumption and stimulating the economy.
But as for which is the main reason,
I think it is up to everyone to make their own judgment.
I will first give three explanations that I think may be more reliable.
The first reason
is because currently, consumers in the US
have very low sensitivity to interest rates.
What does that mean?
Because the US did not directly raise interest rates this time.
Before this rate increase,
in response to the pandemic,
there was a wave of large-scale stimulus measures and interest rate cuts.
Therefore, many companies and individuals
borrowed with loans under such
low interest rate environment
Many of my friends in the United States
took out loans to buy houses in that low interest rate environment.
Actually it
greatly released the demand for loans in the economy.
After that, the Fed increase interest rates, right?
Anyway, the mortgage is already locked,
raising interest rates actually has nothing to do with me.
I still pay those mortgages every month.
This is the so-called reduction of interest rate sensitivity.
It actually comes from the interest rate falling first and then rising.
The rise after that
was because
everyone had hedged and locked it up,
so the impact of raising interest rates on the entire economy was not that big
More or less like that
Let’s skip the minor details.
The second explanation towards Americans high consumption
is because they are consuming their
extra savings.
Before the pandemic
US had been in low interest rate environment
the momentum of economic development was also very strong.
This actually gave everyone
a lot of extra savings in their hands.
At the beginning of the pandemic,
the U.S. government focused on spending money on subsidies for everyone,
so that made everyone had more money.
So after the interest rate hike,
although there were difficulties and prices increased
but because everyone still had money,
they could still maintain the original consumption level
This is why many economists
predicted that in 2024
the consumption momentum in the US will not be as strong
You can see from this graph
that the money in everyone's hands has actually
been consumed.
In fact, the Fed has also published many articles
to discuss the issue of additional savings.
It also feels that
this thing is persuasive
but not strong.
The third explanation
is that some of the US government's fiscal stimulus policies
including infrastructure stimulus
are still having an effect.
This is relatively intuitive.
In addition, there are some explanations such as
artificial intelligence has activated the market,
and the rise in stock prices has brought about wealth effects
There are also changes in everyone's psychology.
After the pandemic, people figured out that just spend as you like
and many more.
In short, the rise of US consumption has driven up GDP.
Yes
this question is not over yet, think about it slowly
the Fed raising interest rates
if it does not strongly suppress demand
then the rate hike
which ought to play its part that is
suppressing economy
did not work.
This explains why the demand is strong
but the inflation rate still drop.
It ’s interesting to see the problems
are connected one by one.
What is the reason for this?
The most important thing that brings down the inflation rate
is not demand or the Fed
it is supply
Let’s take a look at how this round of inflation started
On the one hand, it’s a problem on the demand side, right?
The government prints money for everyone,
and everyone’s demand starts strong. Consumption leads to rising prices
But at the same time, part of the reason
is caused by insufficient supply on the supply side.
For example, the oil crisis
The shortage of chips in 2022
and various supply chain problems
led to rising prices
So why did inflation drop in 2023?
It's not because the demand has cooled down,
but because the supply side has recovered.
Everyone has returned to normal.
It’s time to get back to work
When inflation rises,
the U.S. government also very reasonably changed
the original stimulus on the demand side
to the current stimulus on the supply side.
Originally they give money directly to consumers,
but now it has turned into subsidising and stimulating factories and companies.
They also passed various bills
such as the "Infrastructure Investment and Job Act"
"Inflation Reduction Act", "Chip and Science Act", etc.
Anyway, it is strengthening supply strengthens infrastructure
So did you notice that
the Fed raising interest rates,
it may not be the most critical reason for suppressing inflation.
Instead, it may be that the U.S. government
provides some reform subsidies to the supply side
that suppress inflation.
Maybe even if
the U.S. government does nothing,
just resumes production normally after the pandemic.
Everyone get back to work
the inflation may automatically come down
The wonderful thing about the economy
actually lies in how these factors link with each other
or intricate relationship between them.
Actually some investment platforms
we can follow these key economic data
to help us judge the economic situation
For example, the global Chinese-friendly one-stop trading platform
moomoo
has key indicators of financial data.
We talked about
the key data and policies of the US
moomoo can receive the news rapidly
and can directly compare historical data and expectations
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In addition to macro data and company's financial report,
moomoo also has excellent financial report snapshots
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For example, NVIDIA
just by one swipe
you can know that its focus is on the growth of data center business.
moomoo is also very useful for
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For example, Pelosi, who is highly discussed by everyone
you can directly see her positions
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those of you who are interested can get it there.
Let’s go back to the United States.
Next, let’s take a look at
some of the biggest potential risks
or hidden dangers faced by the U.S. economy.
The first is real estate.
If you look at the breakdown of the US economy over the past two years
the most disappointing is real estate investment.
This is actually very easy to understand.
30-year loan interest rate,
was at 3% in 2021
now it's 7%
Such a big change in interest rates
will definitely cool down the housing market.
However, in terms of personal real estate,
it actually does not have the biggest impact.
After all, the demand is there and housing prices have not dropped.
The biggest problem is probably the biggest risk that the US cannot avoid in the past year.
We often hear that
the biggest risk that US cannot avoid
is commercial real estate.
Why is that?
It’s not just a matter of high interest rates.
Because of the pandemic,
many people may have discovered that
working from home is actually not bad
and this has greatly reduced the market demand for commercial real estate
Moreover, it is very likely
an irreversible structural change from bottom up
This has led to the rapid decline in commercial real estate prices.
Look at the change in commercial real estate prices
every time the Fed raises interest rates.
This time, the decline is the most obvious.
Since the interest rate hikes,
commercial real estate prices has fallen by more than 10%.
Some high-end office buildings in places
like Manhattan and Los Angeles
have even been sold at half-price clearance sales.
Let me tell you, this is not
as simple as just the owner losing a little money
because these commercial properties
carry huge sums of loans behind them.
and a quarter of these loans
will mature within the next two years.
At such a high interest rate,
if demand continues to drop off a cliff,
banks or financial intermediaries
holding these collaterals
may be facing huge losses,
and may even explode.
In other words, these commercial properties
have tied themselves to the entire financial market
through bank loans or leverage of
securitisation instruments such as MBS.
If it collapse
it is likely to spread quickly to the entire market
or even the world.
On the surface these banks
especially small banks may seem calm
but actually their balance sheets
have begun to seriously deteriorate
How much has it actually deteriorated?
What will happen next?
What measures will the Federal Reserve take?
We can only wait and see what happens.
In the long run,
the U.S. government still has a potentially huge risk.
It can be said that its biggest long-term problem
is its debt problem
In fact, it is not just the United States,
governments globally
are facing the same problem
Repeated rises in interest rates
may cause the government's debt costs to continue to rise.
In the short term, you may not feel that this problem is big.
Governments such as the United States and Japan
still can afford to pay the interest
but it’s unsustainable.
You can't have the government go and borrow money
to settle whatever problems arise in the economy.
Like the United States, they have actually tried
to limit their debt expansion through bipartisan games,
government shutdowns, etc.
but it seems that the effect is not very good at the moment.
As for this issue, it is not very urgent.
For the government,
it is more just words and
to actually implement it
how to specifically reduce expenditures
In short term it seems like there's always
more urgent things that need to be stimulated and that need to spend money
These problems in the United States
whether it is government debt or commercial real estate,
are actually quite deep problems
we briefly touched on them today
and will discuss them in detail if we have the opportunity.
This is the general outlook of the U.S. economy.
Because the chain we just mentioned is relatively long,
let me sort it out for you.
We talked about how it might fall into recession,
but it did not
reason being
the consumption is strong.
So why is consumption strong?
We talked about few reasons
but why can inflation fall despite strong consumption/.
OK, because supply has increased
and strong consumption has indirectly led to strong employment.
Then we talked about its risks
including its financial products, commercial real estate, which
may come from the U.S. government debt in the long term.
Generally speaking, in 2024, the market generally predicts that
the US economic growth
will not be as strong as in 2023,
but whether it can achieve a soft landing
and avoid recession actually depends on this year.
The IMF predicts that the US economic growth will be 2.1%.
The World Bank is 1.6%.
As for the Fed’s interest rate cut rate
actually in December last year,
its official dot plot almost made it clear that
it would cut by 75 basis points in 2024
but the market just didn’t believe it.
I looked at the futures market at that time, it is expected that
the Fednwill cut interest rates by 150 basis points in 2024.
I don’t know why
Wall Street views the Fed so aggressively
As a result, when the inflation data came out in January and February this year,
it seemed that there would be a rebound,
and Wall Street immediately gave in
Sorry.
It turns out that the idea of 150 basis points was too naive.
I took it back and
the futures market immediately returned to 75 basis points.
It is roughly expected to cut interest rates three times,
which falls in the same range. This is reasonable.
It cannot be too radical, after all, this is an election year.
The Fed wants to avoid misunderstandings
that it is taking side
So in an election year, its actions are relatively cautious.
Next, let’s take a look at the European economy.
I won’t specify to each individual country
It'll be about European Union + UK
I don't know if you get this feeling that
when mentioning the European economy
it makes people feel like yawning.
So we try to get through it faster
and make you feel less sleepy
I can sum up the European economy in one word
Lifeless
Europe's GDP growth in 2023 is 0.4% (updated)
If we want to be optimistic,
we can say that it almost avoid falling into recession.
However, this is not easy.
After all, the energy crisis in 2022
actually hit Europe very hard.
The good part is that
inflation has dropped from 10% at the beginning of 2023
to just over 3% now.
Actually, part of the reason
is that the economic cooling has indeed been relatively severe,
and even if inflation has been extinguished,
the unemployment rate has remained at a historically low level.
The worst performing countries in Europe
is the former European economic engine
Germany
Let’s take a look at
the ranking of the world’s major economies in terms of growth rate in 2023.
Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.3%,
third from the bottom Netherland
fourth from the bottom, UK
fifth from the bottom, European Union as a whole
and further forward is Italy and France.
What's going on in Europe?
Actually, the problems faced by these countries are relatively similar
and Germany
is the most prominent and extreme one here.
So we'll use it as example
and talk about
what are the dilemma they are facing now.
First of all, the most basic is Europe is indeed facing high interest rates
and fiscal austerity in various countries.
After all, controlling inflation must be the first priority
Moreover unlike US, Europe does not have
inexplicably high consumption.
Actually, employment in Europe is pretty good
and even wages have risen a lot.
Europeans tend to choose to save
rather than consume.
This is also a normal reaction of the market when facing a crisis.
I feel that our market situation may not be good,
if you have money, you must save it first.
When everyone saves money and prepares for the winter,
winter will really come.
If you look carefully at Germany's consumption,
it is still reasonable, not that bad
but if you look at what it spends on
is mainly on necessities such as energy and food,
rather than heavy industry, chemical industry, etc.,
These are Germany’s strong point
When the economy cannot turn around
it will naturally face the risk of recession
There is also an energy crisis.
In fact, after 2022, the energy crisis in
most countries around the world has been basically alleviated,
but Europe has been hit really hard.
We have done a special episode before to talk about this energy crisis
Among European countries
Germany is the most dependent on Russia's natural gas
Originally
there's a pipeline that
was inserted directly into the heart of Germany.
Now it suddenly stopped.
Look at this graph
the impact was a cliff-like decline
especially in Germany
a country with very heavy industry,
chemical industry, and automobile manufacturing, etc
they are very dependent on energy.
It is not as simple as
spend money to buy some energy elsewhere.
The key is that if the energy cannot keep up,
then production capacity must be cut.
Chemical giant BASF,
have been forced to lay off 2,600 people
This is not over yet. There is also a third very big impact,
which is the automobile industry that Germany is most proud of.
Look at its two main export targets,
Europe itself and China. Actually, the demand is not very good
to make it worse
it has also been greatly impacted by the wave of electrified.
China's automobile exports have increased five-fold in three years.
Look at Germany.
Originally, the export side was facing weak demand
and now the competition is so fierce.
This has caused Germany's automobile exports to drop by 40%
compared with before the pandemic.
What pushed Germany to the altar before?
Almost unlimited demand of global industrial product,
cheap energy, tight globalisation
but these factors have almost all reversed in the past two years.
It is unavoidable that Germany goes into recession
And I think this is purely my personal opinion.
The German government is really very
self-disciplined.
Note that I put this self-discipline in quotation marks.
It does not mean that everyone goes to bed early and gets up early every day to exercise
but that it is very self-disciplined in terms of financial policy
and has very strict self-requirements.
They don't borrow money unless when desperate, they don't invest.
Under normal circumstances,
when facing such a large-scale global impact,
the government should take up the banner and
make targeted investments to actively stimulate.
However, Germany does not do it
Their government debt to GDP
lay still at around 50%-60%, doesn't move much
It feels a bit like
everyone is driving
over in the United States and Japan, they are soaring and flying.
meanwhile in Germany, you're so slow that you're about to stop.
not only that you are pressing on brake and pulling hand brake
Time to time, they may adjust the seat belt or something.
This kind of self-discipline is indeed a good thing in the long term.
But in the short term, you will feel that there is a lack of flexibility,
which will cause Germany to fall into short-term pain.
Actually, the fundamental of the European economy, including the German economy,
is not a day or two
If we extend this timeline a little longer
and compare the GDP of the EU and the United States,
you will find that before the financial crisis, they were still clinging on to each other
After the financial crisis, they broke apart.
It cannot be said that the United States threw the EU away.
It's the European Union that's just lying there.
On the surface,
we can say it's the European debt crisis, inflation, etc.
But the fundamental reason is actually the innovation and system,
the aging population, etc.
To be honest, I've researched these issues for a long time
I thought it was meaningless
Let's not waste our brain cell
leave this problem to the Europeans
to figure out a solution slowly.
In 2024, the EU predicts that GDP will increase by 0.9%
and inflation will be controlled at 3%
which is probably better than in 2023
but not much.
Fundamental problems
are definitely not that easy to solve in a short while.
So if you look at the European economy,
it makes sense to say that it is lifeless.
Well, we have spent a lot of effort
and 20,000 words
to have a general overview of the global economy
I don’t know how everyone feels.
I hope you won’t feel particularly bored.
Anyway, I tried my best.
To be honest, when I read those reports before,
it really gave me a headache.
They were very obscure and boring
It’s not human language at all.
I basically have to stand up and rest for a while after reading a page
Those of you who make it through here, here comes your bonus
Let’s briefly talk about
how I look these countries
and how to understand their complicated economy.
Last year I made a video
to talk to you about how to learn
and think about the importance of building a knowledge tree.
Today is a good case study.
I think those who can listen to it
even if you have never studied economics before
you can get it.
Let's look at the paradigm for looking at this economic issue.
On the fundamental level, we look at 3 things
the economy, prices, and employment,
which generally correspond to the three most common economic indicators
GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate
So generally the central bank or the goal of the government
to put it bluntly,
is to make these three figures look better.
What is reflected behind it
is that its economy is generally not too bad.
I think there is another one that may be very important to people's livelihood
but many economists are not particularly concerned about
that is the wealth gap.
The ones mentioned are first-level factors,
which are a trunk of the big economic tree.
So if you look at
every country and every economy
we mentioned just now
we actually mainly look at these three things
These are actually like an ultimate indicator.
It's like saying what score you got
in the final exam.
Once you know what score you got, you will definitely have to go back and look up
why I failed, which question did I get wrong?
This is equivalent to
looking at secondary data to find out the reasons,
there may be more subdivided data
such as PMI, core inflation
wage growth, retail sales, etc.
This will have different emphasis
in different countries and periods.
For example, in the United States
focus on the employment data
they look at Nonfarm Payrolls
later the market focus on inflation
But if you just look at CPI, there might be too many interference
so you have to dig deeper
to see whether it is rental housing, oil, or food.
These subdivided economic data
are used to measure the economy.
Only then will you know that you may have made more mistakes in this area.
Now let’s think about how to change
So how to change?
You look at the government’s fiscal policy , including
the central bank’s monetary policy.
combine with some major asset prices,
such as stocks, treasury bonds, real estate, foreign exchange, etc.,
to form such a set of analysis frameworks.
The complexity lies in
the connections among these data
Therefore, the more professional people may be, the more detailed they will look
At the fundamental layer it is simple
Let me repeat it: Economic, prices and employment
It is actually top-down
primary to secondary
from key points to details analysis framework.
Does it sound simple?
Is it that simple?
That’s right, it's that simple.
Although it sounds simple
it has been really helpful for me to understand the economies
of these countries in the past two years.
Sometimes when you see that the details are very complicated,
it is easy to get confused.
So what should you do at this time?
pull it out and jump to the upperlevel
so you don't get caught up in the details
and can find the main contradiction.
If you don't have such a framework of economic data
then when you read news report
about consumption rate, savings rate
and the youth unemployment rate
you may feel that there is a lot of information input
but your mind may go blank in the end.
You may not be able to remember anything.
Once you form such a basic framework,
even if you have no economic foundation,
your knowledge framework
will become more and more complete
every time you listen to the news and
every time you watch Lin's video
Instead of a bunch of
bits and pieces of details that you can't remember
When you have this primary and secondary framework,
it will actually help you find the main problems and main contradictions.
It's akin to when you get test result that says you failed
After the analysis,
you may have a general conclusion.
For example,
You didn't learn linear algebra well
or was too slow in answering the questions.
These attributions
are your reasonable attempts to find some main contradictions
But if you tell me that I failed this time
because I get the third question wrong,
how do you explain the remaining twenty-seven questions?
This is a matter of not grasping the priority.
You may think this is too simple
Who would make such a mistake?
Actually when it comes to some very complex
economic issues and economic systems,
you may not be so good at judging
the weight between various factors.
For example,
if I analyse that the sharp rise in the Indian stock market
make investors happy which ignite economy growth
This analysis may sound logical at first glance
but in fact,
because the proportion of investors in India is very low,
some data say it is 5%,
and some data say it may be more than ten percent
In short, it is relatively niche.
it does have a certain driving effect
but its weight is too small
so generally it is not the main factor.
If we change to another country,
such as the United States, it is possible
because the United States
is a country with the financial market as its financing center.
You see, everyone’s pension funds are placed in it
A conservative estimate is probably more than half of the population invested in stocks
For example,
if I say that ASML’s revenue surge
has led the development of the Dutch economy growth
many people will think it makes sense.
Think about it, ASML
has monopolise on high-end lithography in the world.
Of course it is the engine of Netherland's economy.
Does it push the growth?
It definitely did
but the main factor for Netherland economic growth
is not ASML
Look at its stock price
in 2023 , it is indeed very good.
But the economy of the Netherlands is miserable.
Didn’t we just look at the 2023 GDP growth ranking?
The Netherlands is ranked ahead of Germany and third from the bottom
It is a country with a GDP of more than trillions.
Factors such as sluggish real estate and
weak consumption
are actually far greater than a performing ASML.
It's like if I say
Moutai's good performance has promoted China's economy,
you may think it's a bit ridiculous after listening to this.
That's how it is
So you see
when analysing complex issues such as the economy,
it is not just establishing a logical chain and that the story sounds interesting.
The stock market soar and led to Indian economic growth
ASML lift the GDP of the Netherlands.
These chains are all reasonable
but they are not the main problem.
Why do people sometimes say in the comments that
Lin’s explanation
is very simple and easy to understand,
but I may be a bit boastful,
but I really
don’t to come up with a bunch of information and a bunch of data
and slap it in your face
For example, in this episode
I can actually put all the points in this research report
about what affect the Indian economy
and factors that affect the development of US
and listed all of them out
Saves me the time
But you may be confused at the end.
I try my best
to tell you these not so important details
Saying which part you don't need to know
clarify the main part
sorting out the main ideas
are the most difficult thing in writing the draft.
What I want to convey in the video
may not be about the operation of the Fed,
or the twenty algorithms to calculate inflation
and the messy operations of shorting stocks
but the common underlying logic behind them.
The underlying logic of the Fed’s economic decision-making,
the underlying logic of the linkage between inflation and the economy
or those messy short selling methods
There is a set of underlying logic behind it.
It may not be correct,
but it is indeed the outcome of
my research and thinking process.
So you see
actually moomoo's macro data collection and company financial reports
are quite valuable.
Why?
Just like the knowledge tree we just talked about,
it doesn't just pile all the information on you in one go
but it combed through it and summarise it logically
it also filter out some key and core data
to help you simplify the complex and find the main contradiction
moomoo also keeps giving out bonuses
Sounds great right?
I will leave the details of the bonuses in the comment section.
We have talked a lot.
I just hope that these two videos can be helpful for everyone
to understand the world or
help you to establish how to look at this world.
If you have your own opinions, thoughts
or understandings towards the topics
or countries mentioned in these two episodes
You can splurge your heart out in the comment.
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