You Won’t Believe What TOM LEE Thinks Will happen NEXT!
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, the host discusses the pivotal moment for traders and investors in 2024, highlighting key market indicators and significant upcoming events. They reference Tom Lee's data, which suggests a 100% record on market predictions, and delve into dark pool transactions and options flows. The video also touches on the US dollar's movements, commodity market improvements, and central bank decisions, particularly from the Federal Reserve. The host provides insights into market trends, including gold and utilities, and speculates on the market's direction in the coming months, inviting viewers to share their perspectives on the market's future.
Takeaways
- 📈 The market is at a critical juncture with key resistance levels being tested before major announcements.
- 📊 Fun Strp Tom Lee has a 100% record on his predictions for the market's performance over the next two weeks.
- 💸 Dark pool transactions and options flows are being closely watched as they could indicate market sentiment.
- 💵 The US dollar seems to be frontloading a short, which might affect other markets.
- 📉 Historically, September has been a negative month for the market, with an average return of -9%.
- 📊 There's a strong correlation between the market's performance in the first half of September and the rest of the month.
- 📅 The upcoming central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve, could have dramatic implications for various markets.
- 📊 The advance decline line shows improving market breadth, which is a positive sign.
- 💼 There's a potential for a market shift as large traders are making significant transactions, possibly indicating a move to the negative side.
- 🔍 The market is closely watching the 5640 level on the S&P, as it could be a key point for future market direction.
- 🚀 Gold and metal sectors are showing positive signs, possibly due to lower oil prices improving profit margins.
Q & A
What is the significance of the current market situation according to the video?
-The current market situation is significant as it precedes major announcements from central banks, which could have dramatic implications for metals, currencies, stock markets, and crypto.
What does the video suggest about the market's behavior before major announcements?
-The video suggests that markets tend to find key resistance and major trade levels right before major announcements, indicating a period of high importance for traders and investors.
What is Tom Lee's record on market predictions mentioned in the video?
-Tom Lee has a 100% record on the numbers he's bringing to the table, particularly regarding his predictions for the market's behavior in the upcoming weeks.
What are the key events in October that the video highlights for market watchers?
-The video highlights free events in Melbourne and Sydney, Australia in October, which are significant for community engagement and market discussions.
What does the video suggest about the market's performance over the next 1 to 3 months?
-The video suggests that markets will make a decision over the next 1 to 3 months on whether they are on a recession path or a non-recession path.
What is the 'Kangaroo Market' mentioned in the video, and what does it imply for the market structure?
-The 'Kangaroo Market' refers to a market that is expected to make a significant move, either up or down, after a period of consolidation. It implies that the market structure is at a critical point where it could move in a decisive direction.
What does the video say about the historical performance of markets in September, particularly in years with a negative start?
-The video states that historically, when the first four days of September are down, the average return over September has generally been -9%, suggesting a trend towards a negative September.
What are the key levels the video discusses for the S&P 500 index?
-The video discusses key levels of 5515 and 5640 for the S&P 500 index, with 5515 being a potential support level and 5640 being a resistance level that could lead to further upward movement.
What does the video suggest about the relationship between the US dollar and market volatility?
-The video suggests that the US dollar seems to be frontloading a short, which could imply that market volatility is expected to increase, especially with the US dollar weakening ahead of significant events.
What commodities are highlighted in the video as showing potential for improvement?
-The video highlights commodities such as gold, copper, and oil as showing potential for improvement, with gold production being at its lowest in over 20 years and oil potentially bottoming out.
What is the video's stance on the potential market movement after the FOMC announcement?
-The video suggests that the market's movement after the FOMC announcement will be very important, as it could indicate whether the market is heading towards a recession or a non-recession path, with significant implications for future trading decisions.
Outlines
📈 Market Analysis and Upcoming Predictions
The speaker, Tom, introduces the video by highlighting the importance of the current market situation in 2024, emphasizing the significance of the pre-announcement period. He discusses the market's performance, resistance levels, and trading activity. Tom references Tom Lee's data, which suggests a 100% accuracy in predicting market trends over the next two weeks. The video will cover topics such as dark pool transactions, options flows, and the impact of the US dollar on various markets including stocks, commodities, and crypto. The speaker also mentions upcoming free events in Melbourne and Sydney, encouraging viewers to attend.
🌐 Global Economic Indicators and Market Trends
This paragraph delves into the decisions being made by central banks worldwide, particularly the Bank of Japan, PBOC, Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve, which have significant implications for currencies, stock markets, and crypto. Goldman Sachs' data indicates a neutral market stance, which is analyzed in the context of the 'Kangaroo Market' and its potential to indicate a recession or non-recession path. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe for updates on market trends and discusses the historical performance of markets during the 'twoe' period, noting that the best period occurred in July. The paragraph also touches on Tom Lee's seasonality data, which suggests a negative trend for September if the first four days are down, and historical market performance following such patterns.
📊 Market Volatility and Sector Performance
The speaker discusses the market's late cycle, which has influenced their bullish stance on gold and utilities. He mentions the market's expectations for interest rate cuts and the potential impact on market trends. Historical data on past rate cuts is analyzed to predict future market behavior. The paragraph also covers the performance of various sectors, including metals and oil, and their potential influence on market dynamics. The speaker speculates on the market's reaction to upcoming events, such as the US elections and the volatility typically seen in October, suggesting that the market's direction will become clearer in the following months.
💹 Financial Market Insights and Upcoming Events
This paragraph provides a detailed analysis of the current state of financial markets, focusing on key levels and trends in various indices and commodities. The speaker discusses the potential for market movement based on options trading and gamma events, as well as the impact of retail sales data and the FOMC statement on market sentiment. They also touch on the performance of specific stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, and the broader market indices such as the US 2000 and the Australian market. The paragraph concludes with a reminder of upcoming events, including a seminar for viewers in Melbourne and Sydney, and encourages viewers to subscribe for further updates.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Calm before the storm
💡Resistance level
💡Dark pool transactions
💡Options flows
💡Frontloading a short
💡Recession path
💡Seasonality
💡Kangaroo Market
💡Goldman Sachs indicator
💡Volatility
Highlights
The current market situation is crucial for traders and investors, with key resistance and trade levels being identified before major announcements.
Tom Lee from Fundstrat has a 100% record on his predictions for the market's performance over the next two weeks.
The US dollar seems to be frontloading a short, while commodities and other markets are improving.
Central banks around the world, including the Bank of Japan, PBOC, Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve, are making significant decisions with implications for metals, currencies, and stock markets.
Goldman Sachs' latest data indicates a neutral market stance, which is consistent with the 'Kangaroo Market' scenario over the next 1 to 3 months.
Markets are expected to make a decision on whether they are on a recession path or a non-recession path.
Net new highs are improving, signaling a positive trend for the next 12 months based on historical data.
Tom Lee's seasonality analysis suggests a 100% track record of negative Septembers when the first four days of the month are down.
The market's reaction to a 4% move up in August indicates a potential rotation and positioning ahead of the US election.
VIX peaks usually occur in October, suggesting potential volatility ahead.
Markets rarely see tops in August, and 52% of market tops appear in December, indicating the importance of these periods.
The market believes there is a 61% chance of overall 50 basis point cuts, which could be a significant decision point.
The last four times the market saw cuts, it reacted negatively over the first 5 to 10 days, aligning with Tom Lee's predictions.
Gold production is at its lowest in over 20 years, potentially impacting the metal sector.
Oil is at a probable bottom, with a low number of long contracts often leading to spikes in oil prices over the next few months.
Dark pool transactions suggest significant market movements, with large transactions potentially indicating the direction of the market.
Options flows are strong around specific levels, indicating potential market movements based on these levels.
The US dollar's weakness is leading to a breakout in copper, which could be a significant trade opportunity.
Gold and silver are showing positive trends, with key resistance levels identified for potential profit-taking.
The market is at a key resistance level, with potential for extreme volatility around the corner.
Bitcoin is back at a level where buyers are expected to come in, with October being seasonally strong for the cryptocurrency.
Transcripts
the Calm before the storm possibly the
most important time for Traders and
investors in 2024 is now upon us and of
course what a Market's doing well
they're finding key resistance and a
major trade level right before the
announcement so what did fun strp Tom
Lee data say about the upcoming next two
weeks well as it turns out he's got 100%
record on the numbers that he's bringing
to us and in today's video we'll talk
about that along with the dark poool
transactions and of course options flows
also the US dollar seems to be
frontloading a short meanwhile
Commodities and other markets are
improving that and more coming up let's
talk stocks Commodities and cryptos
together right now guys see you on the
other
side well welcome back everybody to The
Daily Show my name is Tom in today's
video we'll be talking about some
massive transactions and of course we'll
be talking about some data that will
blow your mind just a quick Community
announcement if you're from Melbourne
Australia or Sydney make sure to check
out our free events in October they're
going to be amazing it's going to be
awesome to meet so many of you out there
and the Melbourne event is starting to
fill up so make sure to check it out
links in the description down below
let's jump into the data though because
of course this week is big and we mean
big big because central banks around the
world are making huge decisions
particularly the bank of Japan pboc Bank
of England and of course the Federal
Reserve on Wednesday now this has
dramatic implications when it comes to
medals it comes to currencies and of
course stock mark markets including also
crypto and we know that markets tend to
come in a certain way but according to
Goldman Sachs latest data it looks like
their indicator is showing neutrality
and that makes sense in some ways when
we consider the Kangaroo Market that
we're in over the next 1 to 3 months
markets will make a DEC decision are we
on the recession path or the non-
recession path for the market structure
and I encourage you if it's your first
time here to the channel subscribe
because it is going to be an amazing
time trying to work this one out and
figure out whether we're going into a
deep and dark recession faster than we
already do suspect let's talk about net
new highs because they're improving and
you can see here that this is a good
sign if you look at the next 12 months
based on annual history 99.4% and 68.7%
of the time when we get this type of
breadth Improvement it does lead into
usually good period median twoe returns
as we know this is the worst twoe period
of the Year take a snapshot of this one
because you may want to remember the
best twoe period of the year which
happened again this year which is July
the first half and it's a great one to
have we've got it over Linked In Our ex
comments in uh Twitter or whatever we
call it now let's talk about fun Strat
Tom Lee's seasonality though and why he
believes that it's a 100% track record
or at least the data believes that's
100% track record of having a negative
September when we see the first four
days of the month end up down and that's
of course what we've seen now I'm going
to read a couple of charts charts here
I'm going to read the dates 31 33 this
is 1900s 34 37 44 46 87 2001 2008 and
2015 so these are all the years that
we've had this the average return over
September has generally been -9% from
the start to the back and that basically
means that we could be going back into
the Kangaroo Market and remember where
we find ourselves in the kangaroo market
right now is at the resistance right at
the top and as you'll see there's some
dark poool transactions coming through
which may suggest that people are
already positioning potentially to the
negative side but let's not get too
negative right now because we know that
when we had a 4mon run up into August
that's never been the top we also need
to remember that when we see things like
we did last week which was going from a
NE 4% the week before to a positive 4%
which we suspected this all has that
implication of showing us that the
breadth the rotation of the street is
starting to happen under underneath
ahead of this us election and speaking
of us elections we still may not be out
of the volatility just yet did you know
that vix Peaks usually in October and
although this year I don't think it's
going to Peak as we saw 65 in August
that would also make sense though
because August is most likely the low
remember we mentioned kangaroo style
Market well that is kind of the way this
tends to play out and October is still
going to be a volatile event because we
know Vick's term structure is proving
towards that so what happens here over
the next month going to be very
important did you know also that it's
very rare that not only do we see tops
in August in general but also that we
see almost all the tops of markets in
December 52% of the time tops appearing
in those periods days on NASDAQ being
down over one then closing above two we
just saw these reads over last week and
we know that when we get this on the
NASDAQ and the S&P it does still have a
positive correlation to the next 12
months and this could be a bit of a hint
we've seen breadth Improvement remember
the average there was
9.6% and we've got here
12.2% as the average when we see similar
signals as that huge move on the S&P
last week so don't necessarily go oh wow
we're going into recession everything's
dead and everything's gone now we kind
of feel like it's the end of the market
cycle and that means we're in what we
call late cycle it's part of the reason
we've been so bullish on gold and
utilities this year and guess what
they've been doing really nicely now the
the market believes there is a 61% odd
of overall 50 basis point Cuts now I
actually ped you guys and you said that
it was 70% chance of a 25 basis point
cut so this is going to be a big time
and we know that as we see this easing
we will find out whether we're also
following the recession path which is
huge amounts of cuts that are consistent
or the non- recession path which often
means quite a few Cuts then
stabilization or The Terminal rate that
we end up hitting now the market at the
moment seems split between this decision
and it seems like we're going in the
middling Zone with around 200 basis
points of cuts being possible over the
next 2 years and this will be an
important factor because we know that
markets tend to freak out if the FED is
freaking out and the 50 basis point cut
could suggest that they're not very sure
of how good the economy really is let's
let look at the last four times we've
seen Cuts though 25 basis point cuts are
here 50 basis point cuts are here in all
four of the most recent reads that we
have they went down over the first 5
days the first 10 days in the 25 basis
point Cuts remained negative as well so
this could fill into Tom Le's kind of
100% stat there where if we have 4 days
of bad September we tend up tend to lead
into an end up negative for September
and that we probably will see volatility
based on history in the past which will
then end up making a big decision
whether that's up or down now i' be
interested to know what your comment is
down below are you bullish or bearish on
the next 3 months in markets considering
we've got one month of pretty much
volatility left maybe two and then we'll
make a big decision on markets whether
we're prepared to go super bullish over
the next 12 months and continue in the
AI bubble I'd be interested to know your
comments but let us know down below and
we will be following this structure so
make sure to subscribe now I want to
grow into gold we love gold here on the
channel this year but we also know that
it's only during certain times you want
to hold gold have a look at this chart
Barrack gold annual gold production is
the lowest it's been in over 20 years
that's pretty wild also when you think
about gold and metal starting to run
again could they be running because oil
is getting cheaper Gold's not cheap to
get out of the ground copper and silver
often in open pits sometimes in projects
well they're benefiting from this lower
oil and in fact it could go into their
profit overlays so you can see here that
profit is actually starting to uptick
and in fact I believe the metal sector
may have some of the best cash flow in
the markets right now so maybe Wall
Street started to sniff this out and
move into it over the last week we also
know though that oil is at a probable
bottom when it comes to everyone being
so negative on it whenever we've seen
this low number of overall long
contracts we've tended to see spikes in
oil over the next coming months so this
is a very interesting point here into
the election and of course as I've said
all year and I continue to state is
particularly very sensitive to the
elections because there's a lot at stake
this year and people are trying to
manipulate it each and every way let's
go over to dark poool transactions
speaking of manipulation let's talk
about this one two times leverage coin
fund big transaction came in here now
the biggest on record and of course last
time we saw a big one it led into a sell
could this one be a buy very interesting
point for crypto and obviously coin
finding some possible buyers there we'
also got a couple of positions starting
to and I would expect over the next 24
hours big positions to start to appear
ahead of the fomc so stay tuned for that
I'm excited to get that video out to you
I will be doing it earlier plus we'll
put some into the newsletter as well so
make sure to sign up for that links in
the pin comment down below it's going to
be a very big event so we have a big
dark poool transaction in a short Q fund
and a short S&P fund appearing right at
this most traded level I would say
someone's trying to go short that
doesn't mean it's a solic ation to go do
it but just to give you an example when
we started to see stacking on this point
for Google the other day guess what that
was the low for Google and it's since
started recovering so sometimes these
big transactions can tell us a little
bit about what the biggest Traders are
doing and they can help us make better
informed decisions along with our price
action remember price action is
ultimately one of the key reads that we
must have last 24 hours we saw energy we
saw financials we saw defensive start to
come through we obviously know the last
5 days has been driven by medals mining
gold and these kind of upticks and we've
started to see this appear of course in
the charts earlier when it comes to
advance decline line that continues up
which shows us breadth is improving in
the 500 stocks but of course it's being
led by small ones so that means the
market can't go up as much but we're
basically trading right around the most
traded Zone with Delta being neutralized
over the two days leading in when we
look at the Futures Market we know the
two key levels we're watching we do end
up getting a sell could come down to the
5515 remember this level in a moment and
of course if we get a buy and we go
through 5640 which we know is key then
we could be pushing into the 5680 line
and that makes a bit of sense when we
look at the options and I think this is
options related let's have a look here
at 5640 positive gammer event both the
Tuesday and the Wednesday are filled
with 5640 5630 calls this is a huge deal
5655 obviously starting to become a big
put level and that's something we'll be
watching but if we do manage to take
5640 markets are in the positivity stage
at the moment so although we know we're
at a key potential bearish Zone we got
to remember the trend is still up and
the gamma is still positive especially
through those areas now remember I said
remember 55 15 well that's because if we
look at the end of the week the options
flow seems to be very strong around 5500
5520 for puts so they will be key levels
ctas no surprises we know they're all
buying across the board at the moment
oil silver NASDAQ S&P they were behind
now they've started to buy back in and
momentum funds are starting to get back
into these flows when it comes to Tesla
we know there's only one level 230 230
into 250 250 into 2 280 these are the
key kind of flow zones at the moment but
we're looking for a 230 plus close
ideally 232 Plus close to get that
started so Tesla's at res at this stage
Nvidia gets a little bit more
interesting 110 being the key put 120
being the key call resistance and
surprisingly 113 here you can see
starting to get a lot of trade on it so
we're in positive gamma on Nvidia one to
watch let's move over now to the general
broad markets we'll kind of start here
with the US doll Yen this is going to be
one that I bring up in the next video
because of course people are starting to
freak out about it it's become that
possible you know new low my goodness we
need to see volatility all over the
place we will go through the big trade
transactions because people went from
one extreme to the other extreme on this
we'll report on that over the next 24
hours another one that people have asked
about is treasuries what do we think
about treasuries and we'll add
treasuries on the chart here and you'll
see that they're breaking to the upside
now this is kind of pointing towards 108
but as I've often said I don't think
treasuries are a trade they're more of
an investment or multi-month decision
and there is a lot of volume in these I
think treasuries will have an incredible
volatile day over the next 12 months
because everyone's levered them super
long and that always has me wondering I
don't think it's a great time to be
super levered in treasuries that's just
my opinion we'll see how it plays out
volatility of the volatility is showing
we're still elevated so obviously we
have to expect volatility to potentially
Spike into Wednesday and we know the US
dollar has weakened ahead of the event
suggesting that we could be open to a
995 and under parody shoot by the dollar
at the moment the dollar is really weak
we've known that for quite a few days
we've been talking about it for a while
now and uh yeah it'll be an interesting
one to see how it plays but the the
moment the dollar is weak and that
dollar weakness is also leading into
copper breaking out congrats anyone
that's been in this of course this is an
absolute day trading masterclass special
this a very replicable trade guys
multiple trades actually here in Copper
and we're looking towards this possibly
actually getting towards a 460 or 450
read so it looks like metals are backing
a little bit of a way and that's being
reflected in the Chinese market as well
us oil picking up daily 20 sits around
7150 mean reversion sits around
7560 that's probably what most people
are gunning for when it comes for the
Bulls they're going to be looking
towards this level and we'll continue to
watch and see whether oil keeps
recovering but as we suspected last week
we saw the signs of recovery and so far
so good in terms of oil making this
little bit of an upshoot there probably
is a reaction trade off that which we'll
update soon what about gold big swing
through the uh massive coil congrats
gold gold buyers you're probably feeling
pretty good 2600 soft psychological res
and the technical res about 2628 so it
still looks pretty good and even if it
pulls back to like 2510 probably still
buyers around there silver improving as
well key First Take profit
3120 second TP 3460 so yeah very nice on
Silver basically an inverse Head and
Shoulders here great move and yeah for
now it's doing quite well check out
silver gold ratio in our previous video
as well we went through that quite
interesting stuff Tesla 232 plus
breakout close and then we start to move
towards 250 and then possibly even 280
got to remember this is an inverse Head
and Shoulders pattern and if it does
break out could be quite an aggressive
positive gamma move Nvidia is a bit
tough we know 110 we know 120 and we
also know that semiconductors are
probably giving us the better chart
right now the Gap fi res seems to be
about 242 they recovered after selling
through the session this did a bit
better than Nvidia we'll see whether it
can start to improve HSI as we mentioned
before China has been recovering this is
fully replicable style position as well
congrats to people that have been in
this particularly this little um uh 172
level was a very nice pickup through the
beginning of the session and that's
really rebounding on further stim hopes
and obviously the potential of as well
as medals improving across the board
they're quite linked we'll keep watching
this Market but uh this is really just
also a bit of a kind of History lesson
in how recessions often bottom off
remember the the actual news sentiment
is horrible for this so you're following
price action more than you're following
sentiment sentiment is just disgusting
in in everything that you read about
China right now let's move over to Oz
200 when it comes to the market breaking
up well this is a good Market if we can
get energy through and we can get Metals
improving this is basically financials
medals and Mining stuff so yeah new
all-time highs and we expect the Aussie
market to continue to potenti
potentially push higher us 2000 stuck in
the middle of the Zone I'd like to see
2220 sink over the next 24 hours after
retail sales maybe that really heavy
spend on credit cards in the back to
school kind of season is going to push
that level and obviously where the
buyers are is probably around 2100
realistically or this most traded zone
qes are at res my favorite kind of
projection here would be to see
something like this occur through
September into October that' be pretty
sweet we are at resistance this is a
very key trend line we're at the Gap Fi
we're at the most traded Zone I don't
blame a bear trying to attempt here but
you've got to be careful extreme
volatility could be just around the
corner so we have to expect that when it
comes to bitcoin we're back at that kind
of where we should see buyers come back
in 573 to 565 I'd like to see this block
find a bid we do know we're in an
overall downward Trend at the moment on
the higher time frames obviously October
is seasonally strong for Bitcoin and
it's a very very interesting time for
crypto it's been struggling all year so
is it finally time to turn the corner
and start to catch up to Gold maybe it
is with the news ahead we're only really
looking at two things at the moment
retail sales yes there's CAD CPI as well
which may tell us something who knows if
it moves the market and then the fomc
statement remember the press conference
is what matters and that's 2:30 p.m. so
that'll tell us a little bit about
future guidance as well potentially
Drome power loves to use all the tools
in his garage all right guys it's a big
couple of days make sure to subscribe to
the channel make sure to check out our
newsletter as well new one coming out
after the close tomorrow so sign up for
that and again a reminder for anyone in
Melbourne and Sydney that wants to come
out say hello to us we're giving a great
seminar some excellent tips in there as
well make sure to sign up links in the
description down below Melbourne event
is starting to fill up Sydney event
there's a tab underneath for you to sign
up your interest on that and I would
love to see you there it's been
fantastic time let's continue at it next
3 months super important to markets bye
for now
Weitere ähnliche Videos ansehen
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)