Bears Sound Smart, Bulls Make Money..

Summary

In this financial analysis video, the host discusses the current stock market rally, dismissing 'bear porn' and fear-based headlines predicting market crashes. He emphasizes the importance of a diversified portfolio and a long-term bullish approach, highlighting opportunities in AI, fintech, and undervalued international markets. The host also touches on economic indicators, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the impact of political events on the market.

Takeaways

• 📈 The stock market is experiencing a rally with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, indicating a strong bull market.
• 🐻 The term 'bear porn' is used to describe sensationalist headlines predicting market crashes, which can influence viewers' mindsets and decision-making.
• 📊 Content creators and media sometimes exploit fear and anger for clicks and views, which can lead to missed opportunities in the market.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of diversification and staying invested through market fluctuations rather than attempting to time the market.
• 💰 The historical performance of short sellers and bears is highlighted, showing that even the most successful can face significant challenges and losses.
• 🚀 The potential of AI and technology investments is mentioned, with the speaker noting early advocacy for these sectors that later saw substantial growth.
• 🌐 The speaker plans to focus on optimistic market opportunities and avoid fear-mongering, despite acknowledging it may lead to less online popularity.
• 📉 The speaker discusses the risks of shorting stocks, comparing them to long-term trends that are difficult to fight, such as the expansion of the stock market over time.
• 🏁 The importance of having an ownership mindset and accumulation strategy for long-term wealth building is underscored, rather than trying to sidestep market downturns.
• 📊 The speaker's new stock pick service is introduced, which aims to grow a new account into a million dollars in under 10 years through a disciplined, trend-following strategy.
• 🔮 Upcoming economic indicators such as CPI inflation reports are highlighted as potentially significant for market direction, with expectations of a soft report possibly leading to interest rate cuts.

Q & A

What is the current state of the stock market according to the video script?

The stock market is experiencing a rally, with the S&P 500 reaching 5633 new all-time highs, and market sentiment is bullish with most indices and stock sectors above their long-term 200-day moving averages.

What does the term 'bear porn' refer to in the context of the video?

'Bear porn' refers to sensationalist headlines and content that predict imminent market crashes, aiming to incite fear and attract viewership, but potentially leading to poor investment decisions.

What is the speaker's view on the effectiveness of fear-based content in influencing viewers?

The speaker believes that while fear-based content, or 'bear porn,' attracts attention and clicks, it can negatively affect viewers' mindsets and lead to missed investment opportunities.

What is the speaker's opinion on the long-term trend of the stock market?

The speaker is optimistic about the long-term trend of the stock market, suggesting that despite market fluctuations, the overall trend has been upward over time, making it unwise to fight against this trend as a 'perma bear'.

What is the significance of the upcoming CPI report mentioned in the video?

The CPI report is significant as it may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. A soft report could signal a continued drop in inflation, potentially leading to rate cuts and impacting the stock market.

What is the speaker's stance on diversification in a portfolio?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of diversification to decrease portfolio volatility and drawdowns, suggesting that investors should not be completely out of the market but rather spread investments across different asset classes.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential of the AI market?

The speaker suggests that AI is shaping up to be the next bull market, highlighting the potential for significant growth and investment opportunities in this sector.

What is the speaker's view on short selling as an investment strategy?

The speaker acknowledges the difficulty and risks associated with short selling, citing examples of even the most successful short sellers facing challenges, and suggests that it is not a sustainable long-term strategy for wealth building.

What is the speaker's approach to the content of his channel going forward?

The speaker plans to focus more on being optimistic, searching for opportunities in the market, and sharing what is working, rather than focusing on fear-based content.

What investment opportunities does the speaker highlight outside of the US market?

The speaker highlights opportunities in markets such as Brazil, with its potential for value and high dividend yields, as well as commodities like silver and uranium, which may offer bullish formations.

What is the speaker's perspective on the current political climate and its impact on the market?

The speaker mentions the potential impact of the US presidential race on the market, suggesting that political developments and the perceived likelihood of certain candidates can influence market sentiment and investment decisions.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Rally and Bear Market Misconceptions

The speaker discusses the ongoing bull market, highlighting the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and the market's green across the board. They emphasize the importance of diversification and a long-term perspective, criticizing fear-driven 'bear porn' and the negative impact of such content on decision-making. The speaker also mentions specific market commentators who predict market crashes that do not materialize, pointing out the futility of trying to time the market and the historical outperformance of a long-term bullish approach.

05:01

💼 Diversification and the Folly of Market Timing

This paragraph focuses on the speaker's commitment to market participation and diversification to mitigate risks and reduce portfolio volatility. They argue against the idea of completely exiting the market during downturns, using examples of successful investors like Warren Buffett who have thrived by staying invested through various market cycles. The speaker also touches on the historical performance of the stock market over time, emphasizing the power of reinvesting dividends and the detrimental effects of shorting stocks or holding cash long-term against market trends.

10:01

🌐 Global Investment Opportunities Amidst Market Volatility

The speaker explores various global investment opportunities, suggesting that investors should not confine themselves to the US market alone. They discuss the potential of investing in undervalued markets like Brazil, as well as other uncorrelated assets such as silver and junior gold miners. The paragraph also mentions the speaker's new stock pick service, which aims to demonstrate wealth-building through disciplined investing in diverse assets.

15:03

📊 Q2 Earnings Season and Market Fundamentals

This section delves into the Q2 earnings season, noting that early reports from the S&P 500 companies are exceeding expectations. The speaker anticipates further increases in corporate profit margins and discusses the role of corporate buybacks and the dominance of American tech companies in driving the bull market. They also compare the performance of the US and European stock markets, attributing the disparity to differences in innovation and economic policies.

20:05

📉 Market Volatility and the Search for Undervalued Sectors

The speaker examines current market volatility and the potential for a market correction, referencing historical data and the VIX Index to argue that low volatility often precedes good market performance. They identify small-cap stocks and sectors like personal electronics and home improvement as areas that may offer opportunities for upside, suggesting a shift in focus from large-cap tech to these undervalued areas.

25:05

🏦 JP Morgan's Market Insights and the Fed's Dilemma

This paragraph discusses JP Morgan's insights on overlooked areas of the stock market with potential for growth, such as personal electronics, communications, and home improvement. The speaker also comments on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress, speculating on the potential for interest rate cuts and the implications for various market sectors.

🕊️ Inflation Outlook and the Presidential Race

The speaker concludes with an outlook on upcoming inflation data and its potential impact on the market, suggesting that a soft report could signal further interest rate cuts. They also touch on the US presidential race, mentioning calls for President Biden to step down and speculating on potential candidates. The paragraph ends with a reminder of the speaker's stock pick service and an invitation for viewers to join the journey towards building a million-dollar portfolio.

Keywords

💡Bear Market

A bear market is characterized by a prolonged period of falling prices and negative sentiment in the market. In the video, the speaker uses the term to contrast with the current 'bull market' conditions, where the S&P 500 is hitting new all-time highs, indicating a positive sentiment and upward trend in stock prices.

💡Diversification

Diversification refers to the strategy of spreading investments across various financial instruments, industries, or asset classes to minimize risk. The speaker emphasizes the importance of diversification for surviving and thriving in any market environment, suggesting that it can help decrease portfolio volatility and drawdowns.

💡Fear-Based Content

Fear-based content, or 'bear porn' as mentioned in the script, is media that capitalizes on viewers' fears, often predicting market crashes or financial doom. The speaker criticizes this type of content for its negative impact on viewers' mindsets and decision-making, contrasting it with a more optimistic and opportunity-focused approach.

💡Short Selling

Short selling is an investment strategy where an investor borrows a security and sells it on the market, with the expectation that the price will drop, allowing them to buy it back at a lower price and profit from the difference. The video discusses the risks and challenges of short selling, using examples like Melvin Capital and Hindenberg research to illustrate the potential pitfalls.

💡Bull Market

A bull market is an opposite of a bear market, marked by rising prices and positive sentiment. The script mentions the bull market in the context of the stock market hitting new highs and the speaker's preference for focusing on opportunities within such a market environment.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video discusses the upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) report and its potential impact on market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy, highlighting its importance for investors.

💡Dividends

Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits. The speaker mentions the power of reinvesting dividends as a strategy for wealth accumulation over time, contrasting it with short-term trading strategies.

💡Asset Classes

Asset classes refer to the categories of investments, such as stocks, bonds, cash equivalents, real estate, and commodities. The video script talks about diversifying across different asset classes to mitigate risk and tap into various market opportunities.

💡Trend Following

Trend following is a trading strategy that involves making investments based on the direction of the market trend, typically buying when the market is going up and selling when it is going down. The speaker advocates for trend following in combination with diversification as a strategy for long-term investment success.

💡Recession

A recession is a period of negative economic growth that lasts for at least two consecutive quarters of a fiscal year. The script mentions the possibility of a recession and how the speaker's investment strategy is designed to navigate through such economic downturns without completely exiting the market.

💡Stock Pick Service

A stock pick service provides recommendations on which stocks to buy or sell, often based on specific strategies or market analysis. The speaker introduces their new stock pick service, which aims to grow a new trading account into a million dollars in under 10 years by focusing on both technical and fundamental analysis.

Highlights

Stock market rally with S&P 500 reaching 5633 new all-time highs, indicating a strong bull market.

Discussion on the impact of 'bear porn' and fear-inducing headlines on investment decision-making.

Critique of Harry Dent's repeated predictions of market crashes that have not materialized.

Analysis of the difficulty and risks associated with short-selling, even for experienced investors.

The importance of diversification to manage portfolio volatility and reduce drawdowns.

The historical performance of the stock market and the folly of trying to time market exits.

Warren Buffett's investment philosophy and the power of compounding reinvested dividends.

The comparison between the long-term trends of the stock market and the depreciation of cash.

Introduction of a new stock pick service with a goal to grow a new account into a million dollars in under 10 years.

The potential opportunities in uncorrelated assets like Brazilian shares, silver, and junior gold miners.

Upcoming CPI report and its significance for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

The strong performance of Q2 earnings and the expectation of increased corporate profit margins.

The comparison between the US and European stock markets and the impact of regulation on innovation.

The potential for a silver bull market following the Fed's rate cutting cycle.

The current state of the US presidential race and the implications for the economy and markets.

The importance of market breadth and the current technical indicators suggesting a possible short-term overbought condition.

The potential bullish formation in high yield corporate bonds as a sign of risk sentiment in the market.

The final call to join the new stock pick service with a special discount offer before it expires.

Transcripts

coming up today the Bears Get Wrecked

have you been a victim of bear porn a

preview of CPI tomorrow the latest from

J pal three overlooked areas of the

market Bill hang's going to prison and

the latest on the US presidential race

it's going to be a good one guys let's

[Music]

go just look at this rally in the stock

market Bears getting absolutely crushed

here again today S&P 500 5633 new

all-time highs and Market color is

turning green across the board in fact

it's red and all the places that the

Bulls want bond yields oil energy and

the dollar Index with all indices and

stock sectors still above their

long-term 200 day moving averages so for

those of you who don't know this is

called the bull market it's not a bare

Market when we're hitting new all-time

highs and so if you want to keep being

made aware of all the opportunities out

there how to properly diversify a

portfolio and survive and thrive through

any Market environment then click the

like button on those video and that

tells the elgo to keep showing you my

videos instead of constantly having your

mind polluted with be porn and being

filled with fear and inevitably missing

out because in my opinion if you're not

making money on a day like today you're

not doing it right that's something I

want to quickly talk about on today's

show is all the be porn out there

headlines of imminent crashes filling

your mind with fear and the fact is the

content we do consume does affect us and

does play into our decision- making

especially headlines like get out now

and this guy here Harry Dent pretty well

presented he got a nice suit on he got

all the qualifications and late last

year like we hear almost every year

crash of our lifetime is coming in 2024

of course that didn't materialize

Market's up already 15% year to date and

he's already coming out and prepping for

next year stock market crashed in 2018

Crisis coming in 2025 he says now so of

course you'll eventually be right one

year then I'll tell everybody look I

told you crash was coming can go around

do some interviews sell some books or

whatever and the fact is that click

baiting of fear and imminent crashes or

what's also known as bear porn it just

works it grabs people's attention

however what's it doing to your mindset

and at the end of the day is it really

making your money cuz I think think it's

more similar to a car crash everyone

slows down to have a look it's what the

mainstream media does as well try and

sell your fear try and make you angry

try and bait you into identity Warfare

all that bad stuff for their own benefit

just like content creators they doing

all this stuff just for extra clicks and

Views and even the best and smartest

bears and hedge funds that short can

often get wiped out we saw that with

Melvin Capital who was backed by Citadel

one of the largest hedge funds in the

world had to close down as they got

caught in a short squeeze with GameStop

and even when the best short sellers in

the world make money they have a hard

time at doing it we saw that with

Hindenberg research probably the most

famous short seller there is in the

market today they targeted a Dany group

large Indian company and their short

report ended up wiping 153 billion off

their market cap but Hindenberg research

only made $4 million on the trade in

fact the most successful bear and short

seller of all time Jim chos famous for

pointing out and profiting off Enron he

actually targeted my Investment Bank

that I was working for back in 2007 he

shorted the stock I remember our CEO was

scrambling to fight his media campaign

aign actually invited him to the

headquarters which he denied he's in the

business for decades and in the last 10

years he was more long short and even

been long short didn't work out for him

2008 he was managing 6 billion at last

count it was 200 million also forcing

him to close down his firm but even in

the light of all this hard evidence most

people are just not interested in

hearing bullish optimistic opportunity

like the video I published early last

year on January 13 saying AI is shaping

up as the next bull market when pretty

much no one was talking about it as I

saw Microsoft was considering investing

into chat GPT and the Stars looked like

they were lining up for a new AI ball

this was back when Nvidia was trading at

split adjusted $15 a share it's up

almost 1,000% since then my video back

then only got 725 views basically

nothing on YouTube and the video I just

did only a couple of months ago

highlighting a little n stock with huge

potential up fintech tiger Brokers just

got a little over 1,800 views and the

Stock's up over 30% since I made that

video no one's just interested in that

stuff and just to be clear I've done

plenty of sensationalist headlines

myself and whenever I do the videos get

way more clicks and Views like this one

I did here insiders dump record amount

of stock onto retail Traders which was

factually true and because it was a

sensationalist headline I got over 6,000

views but to be clear I've never come

out and said you should be completely

out of the market as my long-term

viewers know all my personal and

retirement accounts have always been

long only any shorts I have taken have

been tactical with small amounts there

was a point last year I was taking some

more tactical shorts but like I said

it's always been with small amounts and

I've always held core long positions

across my accounts I've only taken just

a couple of tactical shorts this year

and I haven't shorted anything for a

couple of months now and so this is

something I'm going to lean into and how

I'm going to shape the click Capital

Channel going forward I'm going to focus

more on being optimistic and searching

the markets for opportunities and

showing you guys what's working out

there where's the opportunities like

I've mostly done for a while now and so

I know by being bullish and optimistic

and highlighting opportunities I just

won't be as popular online I won't get

as many clicks and Views but that's okay

with me because I actually care about my

audience and I'm just trying to do the

right thing by you guys long term and

share with you how I actually invest and

how I see things and just to be clear I

don't always get it right no one gets it

right all the time I will let you know

when I've got it wrong however I'm

always invested in the market somewhere

and like I said I'm really focused on

diversification in order to decrease

those inevitable draw downs and

volatilities and like I said I'll be

sticking it out through the next bare

Market I won't be freaking out and

jumping completely out of the market and

try to sidestep the whole thing it's

just basically impossible so you ever

see headlines from me the Market's about

to crash get out now sell everything

those content creators are just trying

to get your clicks trying to get your

views for their benefit and in my

opinion it's actually quite lame and

pretty sad to see so many people get

sucked into that but anyway that's how

it is I'm going to keep looking and

sharing the opportunities out there that

I see with you guys and hopefully you

can appreciate that cuz there is always

a bull market somewhere and that's not

to say there's not going to be another

recession or crash or bare Market of

course there will be however like I said

I'll never get completely out of the

market instead I seek to avoid big draw

downs and decrease portfolio volatility

through the power of diversification

across many different asset classes

coupled with Trend following not owning

any downtrending assets because the fact

is if you're a bear you're fighting

probably one of the most powerful

long-term trends that is known to exist

and that's the expansion of the stock

market over time $1,000 invested 144

years ago it's turned into over $259

million that's the long-term Trend

you're fighting as a bear and it's not

just Perma bears for those who think

they can sidestep recessions bare

markets crashes you got worse odds than

gambling because if you just missed the

10 best days of the S&P 500's

performance over the last 20 years your

average yearly return got cut almost in

half in fact if you just missed the best

40 days of the market your average

yearly returns actually go negative

again that is a huge uphill battle to

fight it's why even the smartest most

well-resourced investors in the world

cannot pull it off long term and just

looking at the best in the business

Warren Buffett and of course he's an

exceptional investor but just to

illustrate a point ever since he took

over birkshire in the mid 1960s the

stock price now is up over 2 million

per. do you really think he cares that

his portfolio and stocks took a 50% dive

in the bare market crash of 1973 and 74

you really think he's worried about a 30

40% dip when he's made over 2 million

per in his career he's the richest stock

investor ever and in fact if he hadn't

given away any shares he'd be the

richest man in the world because he's

always bought stocks he's accumulated

them he doesn't short them most you can

make from being shorts 100% but he's

bought stocks like Coca-Cola split

adjusted for7 cents back in the 80 not

to mention all the dividends and that

compounding power of reinvesting

dividends and so if you think about it

when you're long stocks you could also

think of that as being short cash

because you give up the opportunity to

earn interest on that cash and instead

you're putting your money into little

pieces of businesses on the other hand

if you're short stocks you're long cash

quite literally actually because when

you short a stock you're selling it

first the proceeds of that sale go into

your account and depending on your

broker you'll get paid interest from

that but just like that long-term chart

of the stock market and trying to go

against that by shorting stocks if

you're short stocks you're long cash and

this is the chart you're long one Us

dolls depreciated by over 86% in the

last 50 years again that's a huge amount

of headwind to fight by being a Perma

bear or staying massively short or

staying massively short with a large

percentage of your net wealth for any

extended period of time like I said

there's nothing wrong with taking some

tactical shorts maybe a pair trade or

even buying some Hedges fix calls put

options just like we buy insurance in

our real life to ensure our house to

ensure our car to ensure our health but

doesn't mean you should short the whole

thing cuz the truth is when you look at

the richest people in the world how they

got there is by having an ownership

mindset it's by having accumulation

mindset it's by swapping their dollars

for assets reinvesting the profits

reinvesting the dividends that's how you

build wealth over time not be trying to

sidestep the market with your entire

portfolio that's nuts and just to be

clear this isn't something I've just

started like I said all my personal

retirement counts have always been long

only just my short-term swing trading

I've done some shorts trades like I said

there's nothing wrong with all that the

point I'm making there's a lot of

content creators out there are trying to

clickbait you with fear and imminent

crashes for their own benefit that's

polluting your mind can't imagine how

many billions of dollars have been lost

from people staying out of the market

with their entire portfolios and I know

people will come at me and say oh Jared

you're just a Perma ball or wait for the

rug pull you'll see and of course there

will be a correction there will be a

bare Market but do you think we should

really be scared by a 20 30 40 even 50%

pullback when we can make when we can

make 500 1,000 2,000% in the long term

and we're going to get shaken out just

because of a 30 or 40% draw down so yes

I'm happy to be called the Perma bull

but I'd much rather be a Perma bull than

Perma wrong and so that's something I'm

going to focus this channel on going

forward is presenting more of the

opportunities being more optimistic

there was a lot of great things

happening out in the world there new

technologies and of course US Stock

Market is richly valued don't get me

wrong there are big macro risks out

there in fact I'd even put the chances

of a recession happening next year at

about 50 to 60% but the great thing

about the American Stock Market is it

offers exposures all around the world

different countries different asset

classes Commodities bonds and foreign

Equity ETFs that I've been highlighting

recently on this channel in particular

Brazil looking at the cape ratio here of

America the 10year PE over 33 versus

Brazil's 12 now sure America definitely

deserves a premium the question is how

much and so US stocks are likely to see

subpar returns in the next 10 years

however the great thing is that

investors we're not just limited to

investing in mega cap Tech US stocks

that's why for the last couple of weeks

on this channnel I've been highlighting

other uncorrelated assets like Brazilian

shares has been potentially cheap

looking to have technically put in a

bottom here dividend yield of 7.4% and

here we are now quickly trading back

above the 50-day vwap there's also great

opportunities another uncorrelated

markets like silver currently just below

52- we highs and looking back in history

when the FED starts its rate cutting

cycle that often coincides with the

start of a bull market in silver looking

back in the early 2000s into 2007 silver

rose 400 % again off those lows in 2008

going into 2011 quick sharp rip coming

out of Co and here we are now with fed

funds looking to have peaked out and

most likely on the cusp of getting cut

we could also be on the cusp of another

major silver bull market what could also

be a great opportunity Junior Gold

Miners looking at the spread of them

versus gold been in a 15-year long

underperformance they have it shown

signs of bottoming out and we could be

breaking Above This long-term downtrend

and in fact out of all the sectors I

track Junior Gold Miners was the best

performing one today again approaching

52 week highs and the small capat minor

I just gave out to paid members this

Sunday the latest stock I just bought

that was up over 5% just today alone and

so my point is there's always

opportunities out there yes us large cap

growth stocks are richly valued are

likely to underperform going forward

however I don't think that means we

should stay completely out of the market

like I said through the power of

diversification we can invest in

uncorrelated assets that are uptrending

and can perform well even when the US

Stock Market inevitably pulls back like

at w one year and all those bears like

Harry Dent will come out and say I told

you so they'll eventually be proven

right but there's a reason why the

richest people in the world are bulls

they're not Bears they're optimistic

they're not pessimistic they see the

glasses being half full not half empty

and even though it's very early days the

brand new trading account I started for

my new stock pick service it's already

up over 5% in the first month in fact

time weighted return is up over 7%

already and for those of you who don't

know I've started a new stock pick

service with a brand new trading account

I'm going to buy $500 worth of a new

stock every Monday following my unique

trend following strategy where I follow

both the technicals and the fundamentals

holding positions on average for about 6

months winners can be held up for a year

or two all proceeds from stock sales

I'll reinvest equally back into open

positions at the start of every month so

I'm pyramiding winning positions and so

my goal is to take this brand new

account into a million doll in under 10

years and to do that I'll need to invest

about $415,000 over that 10 years make

about 585,000 in profit and I'll need to

achieve an average annual return a bit

under 18% in order to hit my goal and so

for my paid members I send out my weekly

stock pick every Sunday morning giving

all the details the day before I buy the

stock explaining in simple plain English

what the stock does and why I like them

and all the numbers you also see

screenshots of all my trades inside the

private members area everything is 100%

transparent including weekly updates on

what the account balance is and US

Dollars all performance stats along with

a monthly performance report of how the

portfolio is going along with some

commentary and so I designed this as an

educational service to demonstrate in

real-time discipline wealth building and

give giving insights to others to watch

me grow this brand new account into a

million dollars in under 10 years and

I'm quite confident I'm going to hit my

Target and so if you're interested in

joining this journey and hopping along

for the ride then click the link below

this video and take advantage of my

special launch offer to save 40% before

it expires in just a couple of days and

just to be clear this is the only time

I'm going to offer 40% discount off this

service so instead of paying $770

onetime fee for Lifetime access once you

hit the checkout just use coupon code

stock 40 that'll knock over $300 off for

you and you'll only pay $462 onetime fee

no ongoing costs for the next 10 years

that works out to only be $46 a year and

I'm happy to stack my trading membership

transparency results and pricing against

anything else out there cuz I think

you'll struggle to find this level of

transparency from anybody else like I

said they'd rather sell you some be porn

or some vague alerts or trading ideas so

if you're interested in joining me on

this journey and want to find out about

all the exciting opportunities I'm

investing in on the day before I invest

them along with receiving exit alerts on

the day before I ser giving you all my

reasons everything clear out in the open

in the private members area then visit

my website click capital. and jump on

board before I close down this sale in

just a few days okay diving back in the

daily market review we got CPI monthly

inflation report coming tomorrow

according to fund strats Tom Lee it's

going to be a big moment for the Bulls

he expects a soft report to come in that

will likely give the green light to the

FED to go ahead and cut rates maybe two

times this year as he's expecting to see

a continued drop in inflation and again

I know this is one of the most hated

guys on Wall Street fact is he's been

spot on right these last couple of years

and the fundamentals of this Market are

strong and we're just getting into Q2

earning season obviously still very

early days only had 19 companies report

so far at the S&P 500 however they're

already coming in well above Trend 84%

of them beating on estimates analysts

are expecting corporate profit margins

to increase even further going out the

rest of this year and next year and

that's been another Big Driver of this

bull market not only corporate BuyBacks

but just the largest American companies

are absolutely printing money they

dominate the global industry of tech

technology pretty important one of our

lifetimes we all use these apps around

the world and yes that is accounted for

in the stock prices obviously American

stock market's been on absolute tear

since it bottomed in March 2009 that's

also coincided with the emergence of

these big dominant companies apple with

their iPhones meta Facebook alphabet

Google Microsoft Amazon Tesla Nvidia the

list goes on so here's the comparison to

the European Stock Market ETF Fez it's

been flat since 2007 really sad case for

some reason there's just a lack of

innovation in Europe it's really

suffocated their Capital markets in my

opinion due to overregulation over

taxation socialist policies Etc and of

course this spread could converge

somewhat however I don't think you

should expect a massive convergence all

the way back down for America and all

the way back up for Europe because like

I said the American Stock Market does

deserve a premium for valuations

outperformance they make so much more

money and for example you could have

done the same thing say 100 years ago

you could look at the American Stock

Market over a 10 15 15 year period and

maybe compare that to say the stock

market in the Middle East and you might

think wellow there's a big gap between

the Middle East stock market and

American Stock Market back in 1920 1940

whatever however it still would have

paid to stay invested in the US Stock

Market cuz like Warren Buffett always

says Those Who bet against America often

go bankrupt and America's exceptionalism

could continue for many more decades to

come and so just looking at Mega cap

tech stocks the NASDAQ index there are

some similarities from the late '90s

however there are some key differences

valuations are not as crazy the big tech

companies now are actually making really

good money compared to back then when

they weren't also that last couple of

years that price gain was absolutely

ridiculous and so markets can get really

volatile in bare markets and bottoms but

they can also get really volatile at

tops as the market goes on racing higher

huge mainstream participation stocks

swing around a lot and option dealers

will start lifting their implied

volatilities and anticipation of the

eventual correction and crash have we

just not seen that right now looking at

realized volatility in the stock market

back in 99 2000 that was 1 a half % 2%

even got up to 3 and 1/2% here we are

now just hanging around half a percent

stock market's not moving around much at

all there's the VIX Index there just

below 13 and again just looking at the

data which I always try and follow we

don't want to make data driven decisions

instead of emotional and use headlines

based decisions just looking at

historical data typically when the vix

is low the stock market will put in good

forward performances and vice versa when

the vix is high market returns can be

quite soft and so option dealers are

just pricing volatility super low even

in the short term look out to inflation

tomorrow typically CPI can get markets

moving option dealers have got the VIX

1day Index just sitting at 13 they're

not forecasting any major surprises to

come in tomorrow or any big movement in

the stock market and that's contrary to

what you'll probably see out there today

in all the video titles I'm sure you'll

see like CPI coming look out stuff like

this and who knows CPI could very well

come in hot the market could pull back

however again I'm just following data

option dealers aren't always right

however most of the time they are

another typical sign that the Market's

in a bubble and it's about to burst is

margin debt amount of people borrowing

to invest in stocks we saw that in the

late '90s we saw that in 2007 especially

have we just not seen it right now

there's not much margin debt in fact

margin debt as a percentage of the stock

market capitalization down near the low

end of the range could be a lot more

ammo out there and who knows S&P 500

could go to 10,000 but the fact is right

now and I'm seeing this all across my

social media feeds no doubt I'll have a

few people come at me today with this

the amount of people planning to

increase their Equity exposure is

getting down to lows as well so back in

late 21 near the last Market top 80% of

people planning to increase their Equity

exposure but like I've observed in my 20

years of trading and investing most

people are wrong most of the time

unfortunately that's true we can

especially see that in markets and so

I'd say right now the pain trade is

higher and there's an old sayane in the

market the maximum amount of profit is

possible through the maximum amount of

people being wrong and just to be clear

apart from some ETFs I don't really own

any large Mega cap stocks directly my

attention of late has been more on small

caps and the historic underperformance

this year versus S&P 500 we haven't seen

anything like this since 1998 the gap

between small cap and large cap

performance year to date and so I'm

positioning my portfolio more towards

small caps value stocks commodity stocks

and foreign stocks that are listed on

the New York Stock Exchange I believe

they have a better chance outperforming

large cap growth going forward and that

doesn't mean I'm avoiding Tech

altogether in fact in the new stock

picks portfolio I've got a small cap

Tech stock grind like crazy but only has

a price to earnings PE ratio of 12 and

I'll always have some tech consum brand

industrial names in there typically over

the long term they do outperform I just

don't like large cap Tech right here

just moving on we had J pal wrap up his

two-day testimony in front of Congress

Market seems to interpret it he's

getting a little doish I think he's kind

of in between a rock and a hard place I

think he may be worried that Trump's

going to win the election he's still the

possibility he may want to see how the

election plays out before he makes his

next move otherwise I still think

there's a good chance he could cut in

September the data is there to support

it many measures of inflation are

pulling back the jobs Market is

softening somewhat and just looking at

the price action in the Government Bond

2-year yield which often leads the FED

looks to have lost support and it's

holding below the support here

potentially making a new low and a

downtrend 4.62% and according to JP

Morgan there's three overlooked areas of

the stock market that have some

potential upside outside of AI we're

going to see a broadening of earnings

across the market going into the rest of

the year and next year they say some

depressed areas like personal

electronics Communications and

Enterprise May soon bounce back Rail and

parcel as automation is also expected to

increase efficiency and Home Improvement

a lot of Americans have put on pause

their home renovations held back by high

interest rates so if interest rates come

back a lot of consumers may take out Al

loone to do some Renovations as the

average us home age is increasing and

there's significant maintenance

expenditure expected to come on board

another thing I do on this channel for

you guys is let you know what the

strongest and weakest sectors and

markets are out there this definitely

plays into my thinking a lot always

start with the macro top down as a trend

follower you want to be invested in the

strongest areas of the market and so

just looking at Key sectors and their

percentage from the 52e high out in

front consumer discretionary obviously

large cap growth and Tech semiconductors

computer hardware Capital markets

Aerospace and defense financials

Consumer Staples Healthcare and Telecom

all doing really well at the moment

what's not doing well energy still a

little soft home builders pharmaceutical

internet transport and Healthcare

equipment and there's just so much cash

out there it always needs to find a home

and in fact what was one of the biggest

risks in the market last couple of years

commercial real estate the markets and

system have just swallowed up that risk

so well quite remarkable the got in

there and back stopped them before it

even blew up and wall Street's already

lining up to take advantage of that

they've got over a quar trillion

earmarked for distress commercial real

estate and they're already revamping a

lot of these building into residential

as the residential Market's still

holding up really well and some of the

most popular hedge funds are having a

good year so far got Citadel tactical up

13.7% thirdd Point 11.6 Viking 8.2

however inflation hasn't completely gone

away especially if real assets keep

ripping we still got Freight and

shipping Rising that could affect

retailers affect Imports stuff like that

and for sure inflation is still a big

risk however you can turn that risk into

Opportunity by positioning some of your

portfolio into commodity and we've got

oil seeming to find its footing here

today we've got crude supplies coming

down for a second straight week which is

suggesting increase in demand which is

bullish current Administration has been

doing their best to keep the price oil

down however the Market's been quite

defiant and resilient there's crude oil

today putting in a hammer candle

formation holding above $82 a barrel

there's gold continuing its monthl long

consolidation but I'd still still say

holding a bullish formation here one of

the best performing Global assets year

to date Silvera still holding a bullish

formation as well with agricultural

Commodities being a little bit soft of

late but uranium having a really good

bounce back today on strong volume it's

another commodity I am very bullish on

long term moving on inFamous hedge fund

manager Bill hang of Archos Capital just

found guilty financial fraud dripping

Banks and Prime Brokers making huge

leverage bets in the stock market he

added all billions of dollars Greg got

the better of him playing games in the

market Tak on way more leverage than all

the banks knew he had altogether and so

now he could be potentially spending the

rest of his life locked up in a Cell

moving on the US presidential race more

and more people coming out calling for

Biden to step down even people on his

side of the fence like George Clooney

bunch of other Hollywood elitists thr a

big fundraiser just a month ago now

George clone's come out said he made a

mistake said he wasn't even the Joe

Biden of 2020 he was all the same man we

witnessed at the debate so you know

things are bad for Biden when even

Hollywood elitists are coming out and

speaking against him and we' even got

Nancy Pelosi longtime Democrat saying

she's encouraging him to make decision

because time is running short which is

pretty much an indication she's not

backing him and she has strong influence

it's been reported that Aussie Osborne

has been in talk with MSNBC and will be

interpreting for Joe Biden at the

upcoming presidential debate that's just

a joke guys it's fake news but it's

actually hard to know these days what's

actually parody and what's really real

what is real is the record amount of

unlawful border crossings that was

kicked off the start of 2021 when Biden

took office and changed all the rules

and this could actually be part of the

reason why the US economy has been

holding up a lot better than the rest of

the world the last couple of years most

likely contributed to a lot of inflation

as well however now the administration

is just looking to fix things as they go

into the election but I'd say it's too

little too late as most Americans have

CAU on to this Trump's already lining up

Camila Harris to be his opponent

switching his Focus from Sleepy crooked

Joe Biden to laughing Cam and it appears

betting markets have flip-flopped again

now putting Harris back in the lead

after those latest remarks from George

CL and Pelosi and so I'd agree with

these odds as well I think she is a

front runner and just how mind-blowing

it would be if Biden stayed in and he

somehow won again and we still can't

rule out the possibility of Nome

entering the race as well in which I'd

think he'd have a much better chance

than Biden as the mainstream media could

throw him a big party and give him a

honeymoon period that could carry

through to the election however a lot of

people view Nome As Americans version of

Justin Trudeau there's a look at you

economic C today didn't get anything

really major out just crude and gas

supplies pulling back tomorrow's the big

one inflation rate month over month

expected to grow 0.11% year-over-year

3.1% going into Friday PPI consumer

sediment survey VI greed index hopping

back into the greed zone for the first

time in a long time being in neutral and

fear for a long time still don't have

the best Market breadth out there but

other measures of fear and greed are

hitting extremes and it's true in the

short term we are a little technically

overboard here Market is a bit stretched

like I always say really strong

short-term price action bodess well for

the medium-term as markets don't

typically crash when they're making

all-time highs typically they roll over

first underneath the 50-day vwap then it

kind of turns into a waterfall but like

I've been saying you shouldn't position

your whole wealth portfolio in life just

waiting for that once in a decade event

that's pretty much over in a couple of

months and it often presents as a great

opportunity to add more funds back into

the market actually looking at fed fund

Futures going into CPI tomorrow 73.3%

chance we're going to see a cut in

September we'll be paying close

attention to these numbers tomorrow see

how interest rate markets are pricing

the probability of cut and I'd say if

CPI even comes in line or a little soft

we may start seeing increased

probabilities of a cut come later this

month if not in almost certainty in

September I'll also be paying attention

to the price action in High Yield

Corporate bonds kind of shaping up a bit

here holding in this really long

consolidation all year and one could

argue this is a bit of a bullish

formation what's been happening all year

in high yield bonds this could turn out

to be a base for a new breakout and this

is a key measure of risk sediment in the

market these are bonds which represent

debt to more risky companies companies

that don't have the strongest balance B

sheets typically smaller companies

investors demand a higher yield to

compensate for that risk and so if they

break out to new yearly highs again

that's bullish for risk sentiment and

markets that's not a bearish sign and

other sectors too like financials

looking a bit bullish on the chart and

utilities starting to creep back as well

normally a defensive sector I think

they're a massive beneficiary of the

knock-on effects of the AI boom and this

could continue for utilities for a few

more years yet with one of my favorite

utility companies in the renewable

energy space long-term viewers know I'm

long-term bullish clean energy next a

energy coming out of Florida having a

really good year so far looking to creep

back above the 50-day vwap all right

guys that's all I've got for you today

thanks very much for tuning in and for

anybody else who's thinking about

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few days other than that I'll be back

again tomorrow night to break down CPI

inflation and see what sort of price

action we get from that along with

everything else thanks very much and

I'll see you again then cheers