Top-Rated POLLSTER Projects HARRIS Landslide VICTORY in 2024 Election
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses a significant poll by Selzer for the Kamala Harris campaign, highlighting its importance due to Selzer's A+ rating and accuracy in Iowa. The poll shows Donald Trump leading with 47%, followed by Harris at 43%, and RFK Jr. at 6%. This data, post-debate, suggests a shrinking lead for Trump and a substantial gap for Harris compared to Biden's 2020 performance. The video explores how these insights could influence the election, with a focus on the potential for Harris to win decisively based on current trends.
Takeaways
- 📊 The Selzer poll, conducted by the De Moine Register, is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting Iowa caucus outcomes.
- 🔍 Kamala Harris is currently trailing behind Donald Trump in the polls, with Trump leading at 47% and Harris at 43%.
- 🏆 Despite RFK Jr's withdrawal from the race, he still garners 6% of the vote, indicating residual support.
- ⏰ The poll's timing, post-presidential debate, is crucial as it captures voter sentiment immediately following a significant political event.
- 📉 Trump's lead has narrowed from an 8% margin in 2020 to a 4% lead in the current poll, suggesting a shift in voter dynamics.
- 📉 Harris's support is 4 percentage points lower than Biden's in the 2020 election, indicating an underperformance in comparison.
- 🗺️ The poll suggests a potential electoral shift that could impact the broader election landscape, with implications for key battleground states.
- 🌟 Harris's national polling shows a 2.8% lead, indicating a positive trend that contrasts with her performance in Iowa.
- 🔄 The shift in Iowa's political landscape, moving 4% to the left, could signal a broader trend that might affect other states.
- 🏆 The video suggests that if Harris can replicate Iowa's 4% shift nationwide, it could lead to a substantial change in voter preferences and a potential landslide victory.
Q & A
Who is the pollster mentioned in the script known for her accuracy and expertise in Iowa?
-The pollster mentioned in the script is J. Ann Selzer, who is renowned in the polling industry with an A+ rating and is regarded as one of the best pollsters in the nation, particularly for her work in Iowa.
What is the significance of the poll conducted by Selzer in the context of the Kamala Harris campaign?
-The poll conducted by Selzer is significant for the Kamala Harris campaign because it provides insights into the current political landscape in Iowa, which is a crucial state in the election. The poll's timing, coming after a major debate, captures the immediate impact of the debate on voter preferences.
What was Donald Trump's lead in Iowa according to the Selzer poll mentioned in the script?
-According to the Selzer poll mentioned in the script, Donald Trump is leading in Iowa with 47% of the vote, giving him a 4% lead over Kamala Harris who has 43%.
How does the 4% lead of Donald Trump in Iowa compare to his 2020 election performance?
-In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won Iowa by an 8% margin. The fact that his current lead has shrunk by half, to 4%, suggests a shifting dynamic in the state that could have implications for the broader election landscape.
What is the current percentage of the vote for Kamala Harris according to the Selzer poll?
-Kamala Harris follows with 43% of the vote according to the Selzer poll.
What does the script suggest about Kamala Harris's performance in Iowa compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results?
-The script suggests that Kamala Harris is significantly underperforming compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results in Iowa. Biden won Iowa by a substantial margin, and Harris's current numbers are 4 percentage points lower.
What is the implication of the poll results for the Kamala Harris campaign?
-The poll results imply that the Kamala Harris campaign needs to address the factors contributing to her underperformance in Iowa. If the election were held tomorrow, the poll suggests that Trump would win Iowa by a 4% margin, which is a notable reduction from his 2020 performance.
How does the script analyze the potential impact of a 4% shift to the left in various states on the electoral map?
-The script analyzes that a 4% shift to the left in various states could significantly reshape the electoral map, potentially turning traditionally Republican states into Democratic victories and solidifying Democratic leads in other states, which could lead to a landslide victory for Kamala Harris.
What is the forecast electoral vote count for Kamala Harris according to the script?
-The script's current forecast shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in favor of Kamala Harris, which reflects a substantial shift in the Electoral landscape due to the latest poll results.
What does the script suggest about the broader implications of the Iowa poll results for the upcoming election?
-The script suggests that the Iowa poll results indicate potential shifts in voter sentiment that could influence the upcoming election. If Kamala Harris can replicate the trend of outperforming Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the entire country, it would signify a substantial shift in voter preferences.
Outlines
📊 Kamala Harris' Rise in Iowa Polls: A Significant Shift
The video discusses a crucial poll from the De Moines Register conducted by the highly respected pollster J. Ann Selzer, which shows a narrowing lead for Donald Trump in Iowa with 47%, compared to Kamala Harris' 43%. This poll is significant due to its timing post-presidential debate, reflecting immediate voter sentiment. The results indicate a substantial decrease in Trump's lead compared to the 2020 election and a notable underperformance by Harris compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results. The video suggests that if these trends continue, it could signal a broader shift in voter preferences and a potential challenge to Republican strongholds.
🔍 Analyzing the Impact of Polling Trends on the 2024 Election
This segment delves into the implications of the Iowa poll on the 2024 election, highlighting the shift in voter preferences and the potential for a more competitive race. It discusses how Kamala Harris's performance in Iowa, despite initial expectations, shows a remarkable shift that could reflect a broader national trend. The video explores the possibility of Harris outperforming Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the country, which would significantly reshape the electoral map. It also speculates on how this shift could affect traditionally Republican states, turning them into potential Democratic victories, and suggests a potential landslide victory for Harris if these trends continue.
🗺️ Electoral Map Shifts and Predictions for Kamala Harris
The final paragraph focuses on the potential electoral map shifts and makes predictions based on the current polling data. It outlines how a 4% shift to the left in various states could turn traditionally Republican states into Democratic victories, and how states that were less competitive could now be in play. The video concludes with a forecast of a 319 to 219 electoral vote win for Kamala Harris, reflecting a substantial shift in the electoral landscape due to the latest poll results. The presenter expresses optimism for Harris's chances in the 2024 election based on the current trends and encourages viewers to subscribe for more content leading up to the election.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Poll
💡Kamla Harris
💡De Moine Register
💡Selzer
💡Iowa Caucus
💡Accuracy
💡Post-Debate Sentiment
💡Donald Trump
💡RFK Jr
💡Election Landscape
💡Electoral Votes
Highlights
Kamla Harris campaign discusses a significant poll that could be the best news they've received so far.
Kamla Harris is currently behind in the polls, but the Iowa poll is particularly noteworthy.
The poll is conducted by Selzer, a highly respected pollster known for her accuracy, particularly in Iowa.
Selzer's polls are highly respected because of her exclusive focus on Iowa and her remarkable history of accurate results.
The poll reveals Donald Trump leading in Iowa with 47% of the vote, followed by Kamla Harris with 43%.
The poll was conducted after the most recent presidential debate, capturing the immediate impact on voter preferences.
The results suggest a shifting dynamic in Iowa, with Trump's lead reduced by half compared to the previous election.
Kamla Harris's performance indicates she is significantly underperforming compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results.
The poll suggests that if the election were held tomorrow, Trump would win Iowa by a 4% margin.
The poll results are creating quite a stir due to the prestige of Selzer's polling.
The poll provides valuable insight into the current state of the race after a major debate.
Kamla Harris is currently leading by 2.8% in national polls.
The state's shifting political landscape and the accuracy of past polls make Iowa a focal point for understanding Harris's campaign trajectory.
Harris's rise in Iowa indicates a new option that resonates with voters across the country.
If Harris can outperform Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the entire country, it would signify a substantial shift in voter preferences.
The poll suggests a potential landslide victory if these trends continue.
The current forecast shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in favor of Harris.
The video aims to provide a detailed analysis of the poll results and their implications for the upcoming election.
Transcripts
hey everyone welcome back to the channel
today we're discussing what might be the
most significant poll of the month for
the kamla Harris campaign seriously this
could be the best news they've received
so far although kamla Harris is
currently behind in the polls this isn't
just any Iowa poll it's particularly
noteworthy so stay tuned as we break
down why this poll is such a big deal
and what it could mean for her campaign
moving forward this poll is from the De
Moine register condu Ed by the legendary
and Selzer who is renowned in the
polling industry with an A+ rating
Selzer is regarded as one of the best
pollsters in the nation she has an
exceptional track record for accuracy
particularly in Iowa which is her
specialty and seler's polls are highly
respected because she exclusively
focuses on Iowa and has a remarkable
history of getting results spot on she
conducts polls for the Iowa caucus and
releases them the night before the
caucus which adds to the excitement and
anticipation around her findings seler's
polling is rarely seen because it is
both costly and highly accurate which is
why it Garners so much attention when
she does release results her ability to
consistently deliver precise predictions
has established her reputation as a top
tier pollster this particular poll is
significant not only because of the
credibility of the pollster but also due
to its timing and the context it
provides the latest poll conducted by
Selzer Reve reveal some noteworthy
insights into the current political
landscape according to this poll Donald
Trump is leading in Iowa with 47% of the
vote kamla Harris follows with 43% and
RFK Jr despite his withdrawal from the
race still manages to capture 6% of the
vote this data is crucial as it reflects
the post- debate sentiment among voters
giving a snapshot of how recent
political events might be influencing
public opinion one key point to consider
is that this poll was conducted after
the most recent presidential debate this
timing is significant because it
captures the immediate impact of the
debate on voter preferences the results
are creating quite a stir which is
expected given The Prestige of szer
polling the interactions and discussions
around this poll are skyrocketing
indicating that people are paying close
attention to its findings Donald Trump's
lead of 4% in Iowa is particularly
noteworthy in the 2020 election
Trump won Iowa by an 8% margin the fact
that his current lead has shrunk by half
compared to the previous election is a
critical detail this suggests a shifting
dynamic in the state that could have
implications for the broader election
landscape kamla Harris's performance in
this poll is also striking she is not
merely underperforming compared to Joe
Biden's 2020 results she is
significantly falling short Biden won
Iowa by a substantial margin in 2020 and
Harris's current numbers are not just
slightly below his they are 4 percentage
points lower this is a substantial Gap
and indicates that she is not achieving
the level of support that Biden did in
the last election the implications of
these findings are considerable if the
election were held tomorrow this poll
suggests that Trump would win Iowa by a
4% margin this is a notable reduction
from his 2020 performance but it still
represents a lead for the kamla Harris
campaign this this data is a clear
signal that they need to address the
factors contributing to her
underperformance in Iowa in summary this
poll from and Selzer highlights a
significant moment in the political
landscape the fact that Selzer a
pollster known for her accuracy and
expertise is reporting a 4% lead for
Trump in Iowa with Harris trailing and
RFK Jr still garnering a notable
percentage adds weight to the analysis
the results are especially relevant
considering the timing coming after a
major debate and provide valuable
insight into the current state of the
race this poll underscores the
challenges facing the comma Harris
campaign and signals potential shifts in
voter sentiment that could influence the
upcoming election I truly believe kamla
haris has the potential to win
decisively and recent pollings suggests
this could indeed be the case we'll
cover all the details in this in video
but first let's contextualize the
numbers in the 2020 election Donald
Trump won Iowa by a margin of
8.2% however he's now performing 4%
worse in the state compared to his 2020
results this indicates a notable shift
towards the left in Iowa which could be
a significant factor for the upcoming
election to give you more context let's
look back at the 2020 Iowa polling
landscape one Democratic pollster had
Joe Biden leading by just one point
among the various polls conducted the De
Moine registers and szer poll stood out
for its accuracy they predicted Trump
would win by seven points just to point
off the actual 8.2% margin this poll was
notably close to the final results
reflecting a reliable trend for the 2024
Republican Iowa caucus in seler's poll
was also quite accurate though there
were minor discrepancies regarding
candidates like Nikki Haley and Ronda
santis their predictions were generally
on point demonstrating their strong
track record in Iowa polling in 2022
they accurately projected Chuck
grassley's win underscoring their
credibility despite kamla Harris's
recent surge in National polls where she
was ahead by 0.2% today Iowa's Dynamics
remain critical the state's shifting
political landscape and the accuracy of
past polls make it a focal point for
understanding the potential trajectory
of Harris's campaign we'll delve deeper
into what these Trends mean for the
upcoming election and how they could
influence the overall race stay tuned as
we explore these insights further kamla
Harris is currently leading by
2.8% marking a notable gain in National
polls her increased standing across the
country and in key Battleground States
is clear but her progress in Iowa is
especially striking initially I didn't
expect her to make significant gains in
Iowa compared to Joe Biden Biden being a
moderate and an older white male had a
certain appeal to rural voters that
Harris as a more Progressive and
historically significant
African-American woman might not match
in these areas at the start of the race
I debated whether to classify Iowa as a
safe Republican state or one where Trump
would be likely to win by a significant
margin around 15 points given that
context kamla Harris being only four
points behind demonstrates a remarkable
shift this isn't just about Regional
variations it highlights a broader
National Trend Harris's rise is
indicative of a new option that
resonates with voters across the country
in the 2020 election Trump won Iowa by
8.2% comparing this to the current
scenario where Harris is Just 4 Points
behind it underscores a significant
change to further illustrate this
consider the poll from June 17th shortly
after a debate where Trump was leading
Biden by a substantial 18 points in Iowa
now now with Harris as the Democratic
nominee Trump's lead has been reduced to
just four points this dramatic shift in
the poll results reflects a considerable
turnaround in the race this development
raises an intriguing question could
kamla Harris replicate this trend
Nationwide if she can outperform Biden's
2020 margins by 4% across the entire
country it would signify a substantial
shift in voter preferences it's
noteworthy that while Iowa's movement to
the left was unex expected other states
like Michigan and Pennsylvania might
Trend even more significantly towards
the left with Harris as the nominee the
fact that Iowa is moving 4% to the left
with Harris a candidate who initially
seemed less likely to perform well in
rural States suggest a broader Trend
that could impact the overall election
landscape if Harris can achieve similar
gains in other states it could reshape
the electoral map and poses serious
challenge to Republican strongholds this
evolving Dynamic High ites the potential
for a more competitive race in the
coming election how would this shift
look on the national electoral map to
assess the impact we consider not just
the seven key Battleground States but
also include places like Iowa Ohio Texas
and Florida which were less competitive
until this recent surprising poll
emerged let's explore the scenario where
every state shifts 4% to the left based
on current results for instance in
Michigan where Biden won by 2.8% % a 4%
shift would extend his margin to 6.8%
turning it into a likely Democratic
State Nevada would see a similar
transformation becoming a likely
Democratic State as well Pennsylvania a
crucial state which Biden won by just
1.2% would see a 4% shift turning it
into a likely Harris Victory with a 5.2%
margin a significant change Wisconsin
which Biden won by
0.6% and Georgia where he won by
0.2% would both see margins increasing
to 4.6% and
4.2% respectively making them lean
Democratic Arizona where Biden won by
0.3% would shift to a 4.3% margin also
leaning Democratic North Carolina which
Trump won by
1.3% would shift 4% to the left giving
Harris a three-point lead making it a
lean Democratic state with these shifts
Harris would already secure 319
electoral votes surpassing the necessary
majority examining more traditionally
Republican states Florida which Trump
won by
3.4% would shift to a Harris win by
0.6% a tilt margin although Harris is
already winning the election this 30
electoral vote gain is significant Texas
where Trump won by
5.6% would narrow to a 1.6% margin for
Harris
turning it into a lean Democratic State
this would force the Trump campaign to
defend a state previously considered
secure finally Iowa and Ohio which Trump
won by substantial margins would both
shift to a fourpoint margin in favor of
Harris reflecting the broader shift
across the electoral map we're seeing a
shift where two more states are moving
from lean Republican to either likely or
safe Democratic this is exactly the
opposite of what Republicans would hope
for additionally States like Virginia
Minnesota New Mexico and New Hampshire
traditionally Democratic and not core
Battlegrounds are becoming nearly safe
for Democrats these states which require
some effort but aren't major
Battlegrounds are now solidifying for
the Democrats Alaska is also moving to
the likely Democratic column several
other states are shifting to the likely
Democratic category including South
Carolina Indiana Missouri Kansas Montana
and Nebraska's First District this broad
shift suggests a potential Landslide
Victory if these Trends continue given
the recent debate and the positive data
from Selzer Iowa poll I genuinely
believe kamla Harris could win by a
significant margin in 2024 this belief
is based on the current trends and
polling data even though Harris isn't
projected to win Florida my prediction
is that Harris will secure every state
that Biden won in 2020 and potentially
add North Carolina to her list of
Victories to sum up my current forecast
shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in
favor of Harris this projection reflects
a substantial shift in the Electoral
landscape due to the latest poll results
this is a major development and it
changes the Dynamics of the race
considerably thank you for watching this
video If you enjoyed the content Please
Subscribe below as I'm aiming to reach
10,000 subscribers before election day
your support would be greatly
appreciated thanks again for tuning in
and I'll see you in the next video
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