How Elon Musk thinks | Walter Isaacson and Lex Fridman
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the visual thinking patterns of innovators like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, and Da Vinci, highlighting their ability to visualize complex problems and solutions. It emphasizes Musk's hands-on approach to product and manufacturing design, his focus on end-to-end control, and his ambitious ventures in AI and self-driving cars. The narrative also touches on the importance of risk-taking and iterative learning in innovation, contrasting the current risk-averse culture with the adventurous spirit that built America.
Takeaways
- 😎 Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, and Da Vinci are all considered visual thinkers who were able to visualize complex problems and solutions.
- 🤔 These individuals may have had slight developmental handicaps early in life, such as dyslexia or delayed speech, which could have contributed to their reliance on visual thinking.
- 🔧 Musk's approach to product development involves visualizing the manufacturing process and the physics of engineering, often simplifying designs by removing unnecessary parts.
- 🚗 In 2018, Musk questioned the necessity of certain manufacturing steps, like the number of bolts used in a Tesla car, demonstrating his hands-on approach to visual problem-solving.
- 🛠️ Musk emphasizes end-to-end control in product development, from design to manufacturing, which he believes is essential for innovation.
- 🔄 He has shifted strategies over time, such as moving from outsourcing to in-house production and from rules-based to AI-based systems for Tesla's autopilot.
- 🚀 Musk's ventures, like Tesla and SpaceX, are driven by a vision that evolves and adapts as new insights and technologies emerge.
- 🛑 He is not afraid to take risks and learn from failures, as seen with the early rocket launches that exploded before achieving success.
- 🌐 The development of real-world AI, like Tesla's autopilot, is a significant focus for Musk, as it has broader implications for AI systems understanding the world.
- 🔮 Looking ahead, Musk's legacy may be defined by his contributions to real-world AI and robotics, potentially surpassing his impact on the car and space industries.
Q & A
What commonality is suggested among Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, and Da Vinci in terms of their thinking style?
-They are all suggested to be visual thinkers, possibly due to slight handicaps in their early years, which might have enhanced their visual thinking abilities.
How did Elon Musk's visual thinking impact the design of the Raptor engine's heat shield?
-Musk questioned the necessity of the design and visualized improvements, leading to modifications that could potentially trim or eliminate parts of the heat shield.
What example is given to illustrate Musk's attention to detail in manufacturing?
-Musk questioned the need for six bolts in a car chassis, visualizing that four would suffice, which was later proven correct after testing.
Why is end-to-end control considered important for innovation according to the transcript?
-End-to-end control allows for a holistic understanding from the physics to the software, enabling comprehensive innovation and avoiding the pitfalls of outsourcing manufacturing.
How did Steve Jobs demonstrate end-to-end control in Apple's products?
-Jobs ensured that Apple's hardware worked exclusively with Apple software, creating a seamless and curated user experience.
What was the initial manufacturing strategy for Tesla and how did Musk change it?
-Initially, Tesla outsourced many manufacturing processes. Musk later changed this by acquiring a factory and bringing all aspects of production in-house for better control.
Why did Musk decide to develop Tesla's autopilot system in-house?
-Musk aimed for an end-to-end approach, which included building the autopilot system in-house to have full control over the technology and innovation.
What is the significance of the shift from rules-based to AI-based systems in Tesla's full self-driving development?
-The shift signifies a move towards artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is more adaptable and scalable than a system reliant on hardcoded rules.
How does the transcript describe the iterative process in innovation?
-Innovation is described as a process of confidently exploring with a vision, being willing to adjust when encountering obstacles, and learning from failures.
What is the importance of risk-taking in innovation as mentioned in the transcript?
-Risk-taking is essential for innovation as it allows for the discovery of new ideas and the willingness to fail and learn, which is contrasted with a risk-averse approach that can stifle innovation.
What future legacy is Elon Musk expected to leave behind in the field of AI, according to the transcript?
-Musk is expected to be remembered for his contributions to real-world AI, particularly through projects like Optimus the robot and Tesla's full self-driving technology.
Outlines
🤖 Visual Thinking and Innovation
The paragraph discusses the visual thinking patterns of influential figures like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, and Da Vinci. It suggests that these individuals, despite potential early developmental challenges, leveraged their visual thinking to innovate. Elon Musk's approach to problem-solving in manufacturing and product development is highlighted, where he visualizes improvements in design and manufacturing processes. The narrative also touches on the importance of end-to-end control in innovation, exemplified by Musk's insistence on in-house production and his attention to detail in manufacturing, which is seen as a departure from the outsourcing trend in America. The summary also points out the significance of understanding both the physics of a product and its software, which Musk achieves by placing designers next to assembly lines.
🚗 The Evolution of Tesla's Autopilot
This paragraph delves into the evolution of Tesla's autopilot system, emphasizing the shift from reliance on various sensors to a vision-centric approach. It discusses Musk's decision to eliminate radar in favor of a camera-based system, driven by a first-principles philosophy that if humans can drive with visual input alone, so can autonomous vehicles. The summary also addresses the challenges and skepticism faced by this approach, as well as Musk's ambitious vision for a future with robo-taxis and fully self-driving cars without steering wheels or pedals. The paragraph further illustrates Musk's iterative innovation process, where he is willing to change course based on new insights, such as moving from rule-based to AI-based systems for full self-driving capabilities.
🌟 The Future of AI and Embodied Systems
The final paragraph speculates on the future legacy of Elon Musk, suggesting that his contributions to real-world AI, through projects like the Optimus robot and self-driving cars, may be more significant than his impact on the automotive industry. It highlights the importance of iterative learning and risk-taking in innovation, contrasting the cautious approach of established entities with the adventurous spirit of Musk. The summary argues for a balance between risk and innovation, advocating for a culture that supports both. It also underscores the potential of Tesla's AI developments to transform not just transportation but also robotics and energy sectors, reflecting a broader vision for the integration of AI in various aspects of life and industry.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Visual Thinking
💡End-to-End Control
💡First Principles
💡Manufacturing Innovation
💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)
💡Risk-Taking
💡Iterative Brain Cycles
💡Real World AI
💡Optimus Robot
💡Innovation
💡Outsourcing
Highlights
Visual thinking as a commonality among innovators like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Einstein, and Da Vinci.
The potential impact of slight handicaps in childhood on developing visual thinking skills.
Elon Musk's ability to visualize material science and engineering problems in real-time.
Anecdote of Musk challenging the necessity of six bolts in a Tesla car's manufacturing process.
The importance of end-to-end control in innovation, exemplified by Steve Jobs' approach to Apple products.
Musk's early involvement in Tesla's manufacturing, emphasizing in-house production.
The significance of first principles in Musk's approach to problem-solving and innovation.
Musk's vision for a future with self-driving cars based on vision-only systems, despite industry skepticism.
The shift from rules-based to AI-based systems in Tesla's Full Self-Driving development.
Musk's ambitious vision for Tesla as not just a car company but an AI and robotics company.
The necessity of risk-taking and iterative learning in the innovation process.
Cultural shifts from risk-taking to risk-avoidance in modern innovation environments.
The potential for real-world AI to be Musk's most significant legacy, beyond space travel.
The comparison between large language models and the 'Holy Grail' of real-world AI.
The evolution of Tesla's autopilot system as a stepping stone towards broader AI applications.
Musk's iterative approach to innovation, adjusting strategies based on new insights and challenges.
Transcripts
you said visual thinking I wonder if
you've seen parallels of the different
styles and kinds of thinking
that uh
that
operate the minds of these people so if
uh is there parallels you see between
Elon Steve Jobs
Einstein Da Vinci specifically in how
they think I think they were all visual
thinkers perhaps coming from slight
handicaps as children meaning you know
Leonardo was left-handed a little bit
dyslexic I think
um and certainly Einstein had a career
he would repeat things he was slow in
learning to talk
um so I think visualizing helps a lot
and with Musk
I say it all the time when I'm walking
the factory lines with them or in
product development where he'll look at
say the heat shield under the Raptor
engine of a Starship booster
and they'll say why does it have to be
this way couldn't we trim it this way or
make it or even get rid of this part of
it and he can visualize the material
science there's a small anecdotes in my
book but at one point he's on the Tesla
line and they're trying to get 5 000
cars a week in 2018. it's a life or
death situation and he's looking at the
machines that are bolting something to
the chassis and he insists that Drew
Bagley uh not Drew but Lars maravi one
of his great lieutenants come
and they have to summon him and he says
why are there six bolts here
and Lars and others explain well for the
crash test or anything else the pressure
would be in this way so you have to and
they were blah blah blah blah
and he said no if you visualize it
you'll see if there's a crash it would
the force would go this way and that way
and it could be done with four bolts
now that sounds risky and they go test
and they engineer but it turns out to be
right I know that seems minor but I
could give you 500 of those where in any
given day he's
visualizing the physics of an
engineering or manufacturing problem
that sounds pretty mundane
but for me if you say what makes him
special there's a mission-driven thing I
give you a lot of reasons
but one of the reasons is he cares not
just about the design of the product but
visualizing the manufacturing and of the
product the machine that makes the
machine and that's what we failed to do
in America for the past 40 years we
Outsource so much manufacturing I don't
think you can be a good innovator if you
don't know how to make this stuff you're
designing and that's why musk puts his
designer's desk right next to the
assembly lines and the factories so that
they have to visualize what they drew as
it becomes the physical object so
understanding everything from the
physics all the way up to the to the
software it's like end to end well
having an end-to-end control is
important certainly with Steve Jobs I'm
looking at my iPhone here it's a big
deal that Hardware only works with Apple
software and for a while the iTunes
Store and only what worked you know so
he has an end to end that makes it like
a Zen Garden in Kyoto very carefully
curated but a thing of beauty
for mosque when he first was at Tesla
and before he was the CEO when he was
just the executive chairman and
basically the finance person person
funding it
they were Outsourcing everything they
were making the batteries in Japan and
the battery pack would be at some
barbecue shop in Thailand and that said
to the Lotus Factory in England to be
put into a Lotus Elise chassis and then
was a nightmare you did not have
end-to-end control of the manufacturing
process so he goes to the Other Extreme
he gets a factory in Fremont from Toyota
and he wants to do everything in his the
software in-house the painting in-house
you know the the the
uh battery he makes his own batteries
and I think that end-to-end control is
part of his personality I mean there's a
but it also what allows Tesla to be
Innovative yeah I got to see
and understand in detail one
example of that which is the development
of the brain of the car in autopilot
going from mobileye to in-house building
the autopilot system to
basically getting rid of all sensors
that are not
uh rich in data to make it AI friendly
sort of saying that we can do it all
with vision and like you said removing
some of the bolts so sometimes it's
small things but sometimes it's really
big things like getting rid of radar
well Vision only getting rid of radar is
huge and everybody's against everybody
and that's still fighting it a bit
they're still trying to do a Next
Generation some form of radar but it
gets back to the first principles you're
talking about visualizing well he starts
with the first principles and the first
principles are physics uh involve things
like well humans drive with only visual
input they don't have radar they don't
have lidar they don't have sonar and so
there is no reason in the laws of
physics that make it so that Vision only
won't be successful in creating
self-driving now that becomes an Article
of Faith to him and he gets a lot of
pushback
but now and he's by the way not been
that successful in meeting his deadlines
of getting self-driving he's way too
optimistic
but it was that first principles of get
rid of unnecessary things now you would
think lidar why not use it like why not
use a crutch it's like yeah we can do
things Vision only but when I look at
the stars at night I'll use a telescope
too
well you could use lidar but you can't
do millions of cars that way at scale at
a certain point you have to make it not
only a good product but a product that
goes to scale and you can't make it
based on maps like Google Maps because
it'll never be able to you know then
drive from New Orleans to Slidell where
I want to go when it's too hot in New
Orleans uh take for example full self
Drive
he has been obsessed with what he calls
the robo taxi we're going to build the
Next Generation car without a steering
wheel
without pedals because it's going to be
full self-drive you just summon it you
won't need to drive it
well over and over again all these
people I've told you about you know
large maravi and Drew backlino and
others they're saying okay fine that
sounds really good but you know it ain't
happened yet we need to build a 25 000
Mass Market Global car that's just
normal with a steering wheel and yeah he
finally turned around a few months ago
and said let's do it and then he starts
focusing on how's the assembly line
going to work how are we going to do it
and make it the same platform for robo
taxi so you can have the same assembly
on likewise for full self Drive they
were doing it by coding hundreds of
thousands of lines of code that would
say things like if you see a red light
stop if there's a blinking light if the
two yellow lines do this does a bike
lane do this if there's a crosswalk do
that well that's really hard to do now
he's doing it through artificial
intelligence and machine learning only
fsd12 will be based on the billion or so
frames from Tesla each week of Tesla
drivers and saying what happened when a
human was in this situation what did the
human do and let's only pick the best
humans the five-star drivers or the Uber
drivers as Elon says and so that's him
changing his mind and going to first
principles but saying all right I'm even
going to change full self-driving so
there's not rules based it becomes AI
based just like chat GPT doesn't try to
answer your question who are the five
best popes or something by study chapter
by having
ingested billions of of uh pieces of
writing that people have done this will
be AI but real world done by ingesting
video sometimes it feels like he and
others they're building things in this
world successfully are basically uh
confidently exploring a dark room
with a very confident ambitious Vision
with that room actually looks like
like they're just walking straight into
the darkness there's no painful toys or
Legos on the ground I'm just going to
walk I know exactly how far the wall is
and then very quickly willing to adjust
as they run into they step on the Lego
and or their their body uh is filled
with a lot of pain what I mean by that
is there's this kind of evolution that
seems to happen where you discover
really good ideas along the way that
allow you to Pivot like to me
since you know since a few years ago
when you could see with Andre karapathi
the software 2.0 evolution of autopilot
it became obvious to me that this is not
about the car
this is about Optimus the robot
this this is like if we look back 100
years from now
the car will be remembered as a cool car
nice Transportation but the the
autopilot won't be the thing that
controls the car it would be the thing
that allows embodied AI systems to
understand the world so broadly and so
that kind of approach and it's and you
kind of stumble into it well Tesla be a
a car company
will it be an AI company will it be a
robotics company will it be a home
robotics company will be an energy
company and you kind of slowly discover
this as you confidently uh
like push forward with a vision so it's
interesting to watch that kind of
evolution as long as it's backed by this
confidence there are a couple of things
that are required for that one is being
adventurous one doesn't enter a dark
room without a flashlight and a map
unless you're a risk taker unless you're
adventurous the second is to have
iterative uh brain Cycles where you can
process information
and do a feedback loop and make it work
the third and this is what we failed to
do a lot in the United States and
perhaps around the world is when you
take risks
you have to realize you're going to blow
things up
you know first three rockets that the
Falcon rockets that must does they blow
up even Starship three and a half
minutes but then it blows up the first
time
so I think Boeing and NASA and others
have become
unwilling to enter your dark room
without knowing exactly where the exit
is and the lighted path to the exit
and the people who created America
whenever they came over you know whether
the Mayflower is refugees from the Nazis
they took a lot of risk to get here and
now I think we have more referees than
we have Risk Takers more
lawyers and regulators and others saying
you can't do that that's too risky then
people willing to innovate and you need
both I think you're also right on
50 100 years from now
what musk will be most remembered for
besides space travel
is real world AI
not just Optimus the robot but Optimus
robot and the self-driving car
uh they're they're pretty much the same
they're using
uh you know GPU clusters or Dojo tips or
whatever it may be to process real world
data we all got and you did on your
podcast quite excited about large
language model you know generative uh
predictive text AI That's fine
especially if you want to chit chat with
your chat bot
but the Holy Grail is artificial general
intelligence and the tough part of that
is real world AI
and that's where Optimus the robot or
full self Drive
or I think far ahead of anybody else
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