Hedge Funds Dumping, But Is This the Perfect Setup?

Summary

Der heutige Finanzmarkt zeigt eine Abnahme vor der Rede von Jackson Hall. Handelt es sich um einen Anstieg zu neuen Rekordhöhen oder um einen plötzlichen Rückgang? Der Olpreis hat sich erholt, und Samsung Sila hat einen Durchbruch erzielt. Die Aktienmärkte erwarten große Bewegungen, und die Rede von J. Pal könnte die Richtung bestimmen. Die Wichtigkeit der Zinspolitik und die Auswirkungen auf Währung, Rohstoffe und Technologieaktien werden diskutiert, während der Fokus auch auf den wirtschaftlichen Hintergrund und die langfristigen Auswirkungen liegt.

Takeaways

• 📉 Aktienmarkt ist vor der Rede von Jackson Hall im Abwärtsgang – es wird diskutiert, ob wir neue Rekordhöhen erreichen oder ob es zu einem plötzlichen Marktrückgang kommt.
• 🕯️ Ein 'bearish engulfing candle' auf dem Aktienmarkt deutet auf einen möglichen Trendwechsel hin, da der Markt nach oben geöffnet wurde, aber unter dem vorherigen Tiefenstand geschlossen wurde.
• 📊 Gewerkschaftsdaten zeigen, dass große Technologieunternehmen wie NVIDIA und Tesla stark zurückgegangen sind, was auf eine Schwächung des Sektors hindeutet.
• 💬 Die Rede von Jackson Hole ist eine historische Gelegenheit für die FED, um Weisungen für ihre zukünftige Geldpolitik zu geben, und wird heftige Marktreaktionen hervorrufen.
• 🔄 Die FED hat seit Juli letzten Jahres keine Aktionen mehr ergriffen – die Märkte erwarten, dass sie in naher Zukunft mit der Senkung der Zinssätze beginnen wird.
• 🗳️ Es wird erwartet, dass die FED vor den Wahlen keine 'Rug Pull' durchführt und stattdessen eine moderate Sprache einnimmt, um den Markt nicht zu beeinflussen.
• 📈 Einige Analysten sind der Meinung, dass die FED zu sehr auf Daten angewiesen ist und eine vorbeugende Zinssenkung vor einer möglichen Rezession durchführen sollte.
• 💰 Die heutige Wirtschaft hat viel Bargeld, das aufgrund von COVID-19 von der Regierung geschaffen wurde, was zu einer erhöhten Attraktivität für Dividendenaktien führen könnte.
• 🏘️ Die US-amerikanische Immobilienmarktrückt sich nach oben, während der kanadische und australische Markt als überbewertet angesehen wird.
• 📊 Die Inflation ist in den Bereichen für Verpflegung und Bedarfsartikeln noch hoch, während der Diskrepanzanteil gesunken ist, was auf eine Kürzung der Verbraucherausgaben hinweist.
• 📈 Die Aktien der 'Mega cap Tech'-Firmen haben in diesem Quartal weniger als der Rest des S&P 500 aufgeholt, was auf eine Rotation in den Märkten hindeutet.

Q & A

Was ist der Hauptinhalt des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?

Der Bericht konzentriert sich auf die bevorstehenden Aktionen der Federal Reserve, die Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, die Aussage von Jackson Hall und die mögliche Reaktion des Marktes auf die bevorstehende Geldpolitik.

Was ist ein 'bearish engulfing candle' und warum ist es wichtig?

Ein 'bearish engulfing candle' ist ein technisches Analysemuster, das auf einem Gap nach oben beginnt, dann unter den Low des vorherigen Tages endet. Es wird oft als Zeichen für einen bevorstehenden Marktrückgang interpretiert.

Was könnte die Rede von Jackson Hall bedeuten für die Geldpolitik?

Jackson Hall nutzt traditionell seine Rede zur Jackson Hole-Konferenz, um die Geldpolitik der Federal Reserve zu diskutieren. Dies könnte neue Weichen für die Zinssenkungen oder -erhöhungen geben.

Was sind die Auswirkungen eines 'bearish engulfing candle' auf den S&P 500 in der Vergangenheit?

Historisch hat ein 'bearish engulfing candle' oft zu einem Rückgang des S&P 500 geführt, wie im Mai, April und Juli des letzten Jahres beobachtet wurde.

Wie könnte die bevorstehende Rede von Jackson Hall den Aktienmarkt beeinflussen?

Die Rede könnte den Markt beeinflussen, je nachdem, ob Jackson Hall Signale für eine lockerere oder strengere Geldpolitik gibt, was die Zinsen senken oder erhöhen könnte.

Was sind die Erwartungen für die Reaktion des Marktes auf die Rede von Jackson Hall?

Der Markt erwartet, dass die Rede von Jackson Hall Weichen für die zukünftige Geldpolitik geben wird. Eine moderate Sprache könnte den Markt beruhigen, während eine zu lockere oder strenge Haltung zu Schwankungen führen kann.

Was ist der aktuelle Stand des VIX-Index und was bedeuten die Zahlen?

Der VIX-Index liegt aktuell bei 17,5, was auf eine steigende Marktvolatilität hindeutet. Er ist im Vergleich zum Anfang der Woche, als er bei etwa 14 lag, gestiegen.

Wie wirkt sich die Aussage von Jackson Hall möglicherweise auf die Währung und den Rohstoffsektor aus?

Eine moderate oder lockere Haltung von Jackson Hall könnte zu einer Schwächung des US-Dollar führen, was wiederum den Rohstoffsektor, insbesondere Gold und Silber, positiv beeinflussen könnte.

Was ist der Einfluss des bevorstehenden FED-Schnittstellens auf Anleger mit Bargeld?

Für Anleger mit Bargeld könnte es sinnvoll sein, Zinsen von bis zu 5% für so lange wie möglich zu sichern, da mit einer Zinssenkung durch die FED rechnet.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Rohstoffpreise und die FED-Politik für die langfristigen Investoren?

Für langfristige Investoren könnten Rohstoffe wie Gold und Silber, die mit dem US-Dollar korrelieren, attraktive Optionen sein, insbesondere wenn mit einer weiteren Erweiterung des US-Dollar-Vorrats durch die FED gerechnet wird.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Aktienrückgang und Vorhersagen für zukünftige Marktbewegungen

Dieser Absatz behandelt den aktuellen Rückgang der Aktienmärkte und analysiert, ob wir zu neuen Rekordhöhen aufbrechen oder einen 'Rug Pull' bevorstehen. Es wird auf die historischen Auswirkungen von 'bearish engulfing candles' eingegangen, die auf dem S&P 500 beobachtet wurden, und wie diese in der Vergangenheit zu Marktrückgängen geführt haben. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung der Rede von Jackson Hole hingewiesen, die für die zukünftige monetäre Politik als Leitlinie dienen könnte. Der Absatz erwähnt auch die Schwächung bestimmter Sektoren, wie z.B. der Energiesektor, und die Aktivitäten von Insidern und Hedgefonds in bestimmten Aktien, insbesondere NVIDIA und Tesla.

05:00

📈 Analyse der Marktvolatilität und der Bedeutung von Jackson Hole

Dieser Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Volatilität im Aktienmarkt und die Erwartungen vor der Rede von Jay Powell auf der Jackson Hole Konferenz. Es wird diskutiert, wie die Märkte auf die Aussagen reagieren könnten und welche Auswirkungen verschiedene Standpunkte von Powell - entweder dovisch oder hawkisch - auf die Märkte haben könnten. Es wird auch auf die historische Tendenz eingegangen, dass der Markt nach der Konferenz positiv reagiert, aber auch die Möglichkeit besteht, dass er stark schwankt. Des Weiteren werden die langfristigen Auswirkungen von Zinssenkungen auf den Aktienmarkt und die Bedenken hinsichtlich der wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren diskutiert.

10:01

🏢 Wirtschaftliche Analyse und Vorhersagen für Immobilienmärkte

In diesem Absatz werden verschiedene wirtschaftliche Aspekte diskutiert, einschließlich der Relevanz von Zinssänkungen für Sparer und Gläubiger, der Auswirkungen von Steuern auf die Wirtschaft und die Rolle der Regierung bei der Einführung neuer Steuern. Es wird auch auf die Entwicklung des US-Dollar und seine Bedeutung für globale Investoren eingegangen. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Diskussion über die Rolle von Immobilienmärkten in verschiedenen Ländern und wie sie sich in den letzten Jahrzehnten entwickelt haben, insbesondere in Bezug auf Preisentwicklungen und Schulden.

15:02

📊 Technischer Marktanalyse und Einblicke in Hedge-Fund-Aktivitäten

Dieser Absatz bietet eine technische Analyse des Aktienmarktes und der verschiedenen Sektoren, insbesondere der Technologiesektor, und wie sie sich im Vergleich zu anderen Teilen des Marktes verhalten. Es werden Daten und Forschung von Goldman Sachs zur Hedge-Fund-Aktivität diskutiert, einschließlich ihrer Verkäufe von Aktien, insbesondere in der Technologiebranche, und wie sie sich zu High-Dividend-Aktien wie Energie, Versorgungsunternehmen und Rats neigen. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Diskussion über die Bedeutung von Unternehmensinsider-Verkäufen und die Auswirkungen auf den Markt.

20:04

📈 Zoom-Analyse und Vorhersagen für zukünftige Marktbewegungen

In diesem letzten Absatz wird der Fokus auf die Zoom-Video-Aktie gelegt, die aufgrund besserer als erwarteter Ergebnisse und einer Anhebung der Umsatzprognose für das nächste Finanzjahr an Wert gewonnen hat. Es wird auf die langfristigen Trends und die Beurteilung der Fairness des Unternehmenswertes eingegangen, sowie auf die Bedeutung von Contrarian-Signalen, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Aktionen von Investoren wie Kathy Wood. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Vorhersage für die Reaktion des Marktes auf die bevorstehende Rede von Jay Powell und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf verschiedene Finanzinstrumente.

Keywords

💡Bearish engulfing candle

Ein 'Bearish engulfing candle' ist ein Chartmuster, das auf dem Aktienmarkt als Zeichen für eine mögliche Trendumkehr nach unten interpretiert wird. Es entsteht, wenn ein längerer grüner (oder rotierender) Zeitraum gefolgt wird von einem kürzeren, aber tiefer endenden roten Zeitraum, der den unteren und oberen Bereich des vorherigen grünen Zeitraums überschreitet. Im Video wird dieses Muster als Hinweis auf mögliche Marktrückläufe diskutiert, da es in der Vergangenheit zu solchen Rückläufen geführt hat.

💡Jackson Hole speech

Die 'Jackson Hole speech' ist eine jährliche Rede, die von der Federal Reserve gehalten wird und die für ihre Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte bekannt ist. Sie wird in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, stattfinden und bietet der FED eine Gelegenheit, ihre Geldpolitik zu diskutieren. Im Video wird die Rede als wichtiges Ereignis erwähnt, das die Märkte beeinflussen könnte, insbesondere wenn es um die Diskussion über zukünftige Zinssenkungen geht.

💡Volatility

Volatilität beschreibt die Stabilität oder Unregelmäßigkeit der Preisbewegungen auf dem Finanzmarkt. Ein hoher Volatilitätswert bedeutet, dass die Preise stärker schwanken können. Im Video wird die Volatilität als ein wichtiger Faktor diskutiert, der die Marktbewegungen beeinflusst und als Anzeichen für die bevorstehenden Marktveränderungen nach der Rede von J. Pal angesehen wird.

💡Mega cap Tech

Mega cap Tech bezieht sich auf große Technologieunternehmen, die normalerweise einen Marktwert von über 200 Milliarden US-Dollar haben. Im Video wird die Abwertung dieser Technologieriesen als Teil der Marktbewegungen diskutiert, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Aktionärs- und Hedgefondsverkaufstätigkeiten.

💡Insiders selling

Insiderverkauf bezieht sich auf den Verkauf von Aktien durch Insider einer Firma, wie zum Beispiel Manager oder大股东, die oft ein Zeichen für eine pessimistische Haltung gegenüber der zukünftigen Entwicklung des Unternehmens sind. Im Video wird die Verkaufstätigkeit von Insidern bei bestimmten Technologieunternehmen als ein Indikator für eine mögliche Marktabwertung diskutiert.

💡Fed's monetary policy

Die Geldpolitik der FED (Federal Reserve) umfasst die Maßnahmen, die diese zentrale Bank ergreift, um die Wirtschaft zu steuern, in der Regel durch die Einstellung der Zinssätze und die Regulierung des Geldversorgungsvolumens. Im Video wird die bevorstehende Rede von J. Pal als eine Gelegenheit betrachtet, um die zukünftige FED-Geldpolitik und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Märkte zu diskutieren.

💡Easing cycle

Ein Lockerungszyklus ('Easing cycle') bezieht sich auf eine Phase der Geldpolitik, in der die Zentralbank die Zinssätze senkt oder andere Maßnahmen ergreift, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln. Im Video wird spekuliert, ob die FED in einen solchen Zyklus eintreten wird und wie dies die Märkte beeinflussen könnte.

💡Rug pull

Ein 'Rug pull' ist eine Metapher für eine plötzliche und unerwartete Marktbewegung, die oft erscheint, wenn ein großer Aktionär seine Positionen plötzlich veräußert und den Markt in eine andere Richtung treibt. Im Video wird dies als eine mögliche Reaktion des Marktes auf die Rede von J. Pal beschrieben, falls diese unerwartete Ankündigungen enthält.

💡Semi conductor ETF

Ein Halbleiter-ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) ist ein Investmentfonds, der eine Vielzahl von Aktien von Unternehmen im Bereich der Halbleiterproduktion abdeckt. Im Video wird die Performance dieses ETFs diskutiert und es wird spekuliert, ob es eine mögliche Topp-Formung zeigt, was auf eine bevorstehende Marktabwertung hindeuten könnte.

💡Silver and gold

Gold und Silber sind wertvolle Metalle, die auch als Anlagegüter und als Form von Währung fungieren können. Im Video werden diese Metalle in Bezug auf ihre Relevanz für die Wirtschaft und die Finanzmärkte diskutiert, insbesondere in Relation zu den aktuellen Marktbedingungen und der bevorstehenden Rede von J. Pal.

💡Zoom video

Zoom Video ist eine Videokonferenz-Plattform, die während der COVID-19-Pandemie an Popularität gewonnen hat. Im Video wird die Aktienperformance von Zoom analysiert, und es wird diskutiert, ob es nach der Veröffentlichung seiner Quartalszahlen einen guten Einstiegsmöglichkeit darstellt, insbesondere nach dem Verkauf der Aktien durch bestimmte Investoren.

Highlights

Stocks are lower ahead of Jackson Hole, with anticipation of a potential market impact from the speech.

A bearish engulfing candle pattern appeared, historically indicating pullbacks in the market.

Market sectors like industrials, financials, and defensive sectors remain above their 5-day moving average despite overall weakness.

Mega cap tech stocks, including NVIDIA, saw significant pullbacks, with NVIDIA dropping 3.7%.

Tesla's stock price fell by 5%, contributing to the selloff in semis and mega cap tech.

Thursdays have been the most bullish days this year, with an annualized return of 46%.

Expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance are high, with markets on edge for any hints from the Jackson Hole speech.

Historically, the S&P 500 has shown significant volatility post-Jackson Hole speeches, with potential for large market movements.

The Federal Reserve has been on hold for over a year, and the market is anticipating action on interest rates.

There is speculation about the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut to excite the market.

The possibility of the Federal Reserve staying on hold could lead to a 'rug pull' effect in the market.

Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve should be more forward-looking rather than data-dependent to avoid being too late in policy responses.

The VIX Index is creeping back up, indicating increased market volatility.

There is a significant amount of cash in money market funds, which could influence the market if interest rates change.

Zoom Video had better than expected results, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Samsung's breakthrough in solid-state batteries could increase demand for silver, potentially affecting its price.

Gold and silver are seen as insurance on wealth, with gold marching higher in an uptrend.

Federal funds futures indicate a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month by the Federal Reserve.

Transcripts

coming up today stocks lower ahead of

Jackson Hall are we about to break out

to new all-time highs or is a rug pull

incoming more volatility ahead oil

bounces back and the Breakthrough of

Samsung Sila it's a big one today guys

let's get

[Music]

it and there we go again we've just done

the dreaded bearish engulfing candle

today that's where you Gap up above

yesterday's high and finish below

yesterday's low looking back at the last

few times we've done that little bit

here to start off last month and just

going back in history the last few times

we've had a bearish and golfing candle

we have seen some pullbacks a little bit

there in May again back in April bearish

and golfing S&P 500 pulled back for a

few weeks before that it was all the way

back in July last year I remember that

day vividly as well really big bearish

and golfing candle quite often see that

little retrace and then it fell over for

a few months after that and it wouldn't

be so surprising would it had a pretty

good bounce back certainly a lot of

other markets out there not so excited

about the economy around the corner but

it's not unusual after a good multi-week

run like we've just had see the market

take a few chips off the table lock in

some profits ahead of the big Jackson

Hole speech tomorrow morning which

historically JP uses as a platform to

give guidance for his monetary policy

going forward and this one's just

coinciding with kind of crunch time for

J pal it's been on hold for over a year

Now's the Time to really act have a

stick with me cuz I'll get into all that

a bit later on just looking at Market

color it wasn't a complete bearish

breadth of a day we still have

Industrials financials rats and the

defensive sectors All Above their 5day

moving average AES really got a lot of

weakness and energy that's definitely

the weakest sector at the moment and it

was actually Mega cap Tech that pulled

back the most today about 2% as a group

thanks to a pretty sizable down day for

NVIDIA of 3.7% and stick with me cuz

I'll show you what insiders have been

doing in this stock lately as well in

addition to hedge funds what they're

doing Mega cap Tech I'll share with you

some data and research also saw Tesla

come off 5% today and there's a look at

today's heat map to really visualize

that selloff especially in semis and

mega cap Tech while financials health

care and a few of the defensive sectors

actually held up there today and so we

just had a Down Thursday bearish

engulfing pattern Thursdays had been the

most bullish day so far this year

tracking at an annualized return of 46%

Friday coming in second best 34% going

into weekends is normally bullish in a

bull market and so we're all on the edge

of our seats waiting to hear exactly

what J Pal's going to say tomorrow how

doish or hawkish is he going to be what

do he think of the jobs Market what's

his view on inflation is he going to

mention the election does he see any

signs of distress with the cons Schumer

all of these things the markets want

answered so they can reprice the start

of an easing cycle and we can see a

little bit of bullish seasonality around

these Jackson Hole speeches markets can

come off going into them and at the

start of them however they can be

bullish coming out of them but they can

also swing around up and down like we

can see in this chart here going back to

the late 90 the one week post S&P 500

return after the Jackson Hall conference

can get some big up and down movements

especially like now when monetary policy

is at an inflection point which we're

most definitely at right right now like

I said the fed's been on hold since July

last year about 13 months a little bit

longer than average and so now's about

the time the markets are expecting them

to start cutting next month and just

looking back the last 10 years during

the Jackson Hole meeting over the

Thursday and Friday the average return

the S&P is slightly negative have a

slightly positive for the entire week

and so are we going to get that big

bullish rip to new all-time highs I'd

have to do it right in the face of that

bearish engulfing candle today and I'd

say that's possible if Jay gives any

hints of wanting to start big with his

easing cycle 50 basis point that could

get the market excited well whatam if he

gives a hint that there's still the

possibility he may stay on hold next

month do not think the stock market will

like that may get the classic rug pool

after this multi-week bounceback however

that is hard to see 2 months outside of

a federal election pretty sure he

doesn't want to rug pull the markets

going into that in my opinion he'd

probably love them to stay flat and I

think he'll come out with moderate

language I don't think he wants to light

the markets up get animal spirits going

possibly reignite inflation truth is the

stock market's just fine it's the real

economy that needs helping out many

consumers struggling so he may want to

balance that with indicating that he is

going to cut rates they're going to do

so cautiously but I'd be very surprised

if he indicated that they're going to

stay on hold cuz like Janet Yellen just

told him we don't see new alltime highs

tomorrow you'll be doing your printing

out of Alaska and just reading some

research out of mcar they share a

similar sentiment saying they wouldn't

be surprised by a moderate tone from pal

but doubt that it'll be very doish to

try and light the markets up they also

point out any postc convention rally in

Cala Harris's polls next week could

contribute to further US dollar

weakening as we've been seeing a lot of

lately but I'd agree with Tom Lee and

Muhammad alaran amongst others that

criticize the FED for being too data

dependent because whilst it can't be

ignored the thing is data is backward

looking where they've got to be deciding

their policy being more forward looking

and so they have the opportunity to get

in front of a potential recession and

start cutting rates now that's the whole

idea lower the cost of capital loosen

lending try and stimulate the economy

before it goes down the toilet and if

they're too data dependent it might just

be too late for them to get in front of

a recession and so if they don't cut

next month I think they'll face more

criticism for that than if they do

cutting right in front of an election

even though that's going to look bad I

think it's completely Justified however

whatever happens tomorrow whichever

direction we move could get a big day 2

3% in either direction markets will get

past it have we're still not out of the

woods just yet looking at volatility

still in the middle of the most volatile

period of the year in the stock market

and just looking back in history at

average volatility during election years

we are right here seasonality suggests

volatility goes higher over the next 2

months heading into the election before

it Peaks out just the election and like

a lot of newss events the market gets

worried going into it whatever the

result is it accepts then it calms down

and that's typically a low volatile

period in the market end of year start

of year and here we are on the VIX Index

today we're already creeping back up

17.5 kind of unbelievable it's on a 14

handle to start the week off and staying

even more elevated is volatility or

volatility and we're getting a bit of a

bounce back up and volatility risk

premium still negative territory I'll be

keeping an eye on this if we go back

into positive territory that's option

dealers forecasting more volatility

around the corner than what we're

actually getting in the market but

implied correlation still low 12% still

a lot of dispersion out there in the

stock market but also bond market

volatility and commodity Market

volatility still at reasonably firm

levels as well and so just looking back

at the last two August months we got

they finished lower even worse for

September the last four septembers we

had finished lower with three of them

above 5% as well but just stepping back

a bit and just looking at the amount of

cash out there there's just so much just

exploded after Co looking at total net

assets and money market funds you can

see back in January 2009 ran up for

quite a few years even throughout that

tough time 0708 peaked out just below 4

trillion and that was pretty much the

low in the stock market March 2009 cash

fell off went invested into the market

started already building in 2019 then we

got Co just absolutely exploded thanks

to the government just printing and

handing so much out it's gone from 3 A2

trillion to 6.2 trillion and if that

starts earning a lot less interest and

we don't get a recession then all those

stocks yielding four 5% many of them

Blue Chips been around for many decades

they're going to start looking a lot

more appealing to all those cashed up

Boomers you like to chase yield and

don't want to see their monthly payments

drop too much either we always see a lot

of charts of credit card debt exploding

in the state and it's true it's gone up

a lot in dollar terms now above $1

trillion however with a lot of stats

it's not a bad idea to adjust them for

inflation look at the real number that's

still actually well off highs from back

in 2008 when adjusted for inflation in

fact just looking at household debt to

disposable income as a percentage the US

is actually quite conservative 97%

Australia and Canada on the other hand

both of whom have had a love affair with

real estate for many decades 184% 175%

levered to the gills every third

person's a property investor and for

many people all they've known for the

past 2030 years is ever increasing

housing prices thanks to the secular

bull market in bonds that's when

interest rates peaked in the early 1980s

which I'm sure some of you watching this

may remember a lot of people couldn't

even imagine having a mortgage at 15%

these days however that's what it was

back in the early 80s like I said the

bond market went into a circular bull

for the next 40 years with yields

consistently dropping that's a huge

Tailwind for residential real estate

where the cost of capital has a huge

impact not to mention pro-investment

policies interest rate deductibles Easy

Loans based on Equity etc etc and we can

see that in plenty of data just how

overvalued Canadian and Australian real

estate has become along with New Zealand

and to a lesser extent the United

Kingdom and the United States Canada's

in adjusted house prices over the last

20 years looking at Canada's home price

to rent ratio deviation from the

historical average it's up there with

New Zealand Norway Belgium and Australia

with actual contractions in Germany and

Japan and there's a visualization of

just how expensive Australian real

estate has got inflation adjusted so the

multiple of the average house price

versus the average household income has

exploded at all-time highs in other

words housing affordability at alltime

lows but like I said a lot of people in

the market have been investing in it

this period here and they've been

condition to believe that that's normal

and should continue on for Infinity so

even though household debt in the states

is not all that bad we do have we do

have a rise in 4 closures on commercial

property commercial real estate still

not out of the woods the markets are

just not pricing in any Tower risk at

all cuz the fed's pretty much already

gotten there and back stopped at all in

fact a lot of private Equity is using

this as an opportunity to buy up a lot

of these properties really cheap

renovate them into residential property

if they can turn commercial offices into

residential Apartments they can unlock a

lot of value good news is we do have inl

coming down overall just not in

Necessities in the red line here

non-discretionary year-over-year percent

change in pce still on a high three

handle whilst the discretionary

component now down at a low 1.1 that's

the consumer really pulling back on

things they don't need but there's still

that inflation there in Staples and so

it looks very likely we're going into a

rate cutting cycle and looking back in

history at the S&P 500 year-over-year

change in the blue and red here plus 20

plus 40 - 20 - 40 and then the FED funds

rate in the black line you can see the

market quite often pulls back when the

FED funds rate drop doesn't happen all

the time like in the early 1980 interest

rates had significant drops pretty much

over the Whole Decade stock market

didn't really do more than a 20%

pullback same in the mid 90s where had

significant drops in the interest rates

in the early '90s and in the mid 90s as

well stock market pretty much held up

for the Whole Decade the early 2000s

definitely had a pretty lengthy bare

Market same with 0809 can't even really

call Co a bare Market barely shows up on

the chart there there's 2022 and so it

looks like interest rates are about to

come down again and there is a good

chance we can see the market pull back

during that time cuz the fact is S&P 500

valuation isn't all that cheap sitting

here in the mid-20s looking back in

history whenever the market is trading

around this valuation the subsequent

10-year return it's pretty much flat and

it was interesting today to see Mega cap

Tech pull back a lot more than the rest

of the market and we're actually

currently tracking this quarter for the

rest of the S&P 500 to outperform the

Magnificent 7 for the first time you can

see in the dark blue the mag 7

performance q12 23 huge outperformance

just like Q2 last year even when the

market dipped mag 7 held up better then

started off this year really strong how

we did see that rotation last month into

small caps even though it's pulled back

a little bit the rest of the market

still holding up better so far this

quarter than those big tech stocks and

just looking at some research from

Goldman Sachs out there today on what

hedge funds are doing this month in

August especially since the 5th of

August when we got that Vic 65 event

they've actually been net sellers of

stocks especially in the US selling

large cap stocks with tech stocks being

the most sold sector shorts been led by

semis big de grossing out of consumer

stocks they're still buying small caps

and they're actually gravitating towards

buying more High dividend stocks such as

energy utilities and rats being the most

net bought kind of similar to what I'm

doing myself I'm leaning towards buying

more defensive companies with solid

balance sheets better to withstand a

recession and I'm being pretty careful

around the tech and growth stocks as

well and you know it's interesting to

see hedge funds selling a lot of tech

stocks cuz we've been seeing the tech

company inside is offload a lot of late

as well looking at Jensen hang he sold

over $800 million worth of his own

shares just in the last couple of months

alone which is not really a bullish

thing and I mean just look at that one-

monthly chart of Nvidia what a rise it's

had just over the last 2 years

definitely looks stretched it's

definitely consolidating somewhat

reversal signals on the monthly chart

could be setting up a bit of a bearish

Divergence on the DSi if this bearish

engulfing holds but like I said they

report next Wednesday night and who

knows if they do break out to new

all-time highs surprise a lot of people

it's definitely in the face of all that

hedge fund and corporate Insider selling

there's a look at the semiconductor ETF

as well even though we had a nice bounce

back from August 5th this could still be

a topping formation at play as well just

getting on to the macro we did see

weekly jbless claims Edge a little

higher today coming in at 232,000 just

up 2,000 a little bit from what

economists had been forecasting showing

the jobs Market still softening a little

bit but not too bad especially when you

look at this chart here of the 4-we

average of initial jbless claims as a

percentage of the workforce still pretty

low is turning up however after what we

saw yesterday it's hard to know what to

believe out there whole medeia and

Market ke so much off these jobs figures

released each month and we find out a

year later oops they were wrong by 30%

nothing to see here so it's okay for the

government to report their figures to us

wrong by 30% however what happens to us

if we report our figures in income and

business wrong to them by 30% we'll

literally get locked up in a cage so if

interest rates are about to be cut

that's going to affect everyone that has

savings accounts money market funds if

you're a cashed up Boomer anywhere you

can lock in 5% for as long as possible

may not be a bad idea according to this

article cuz whilst it's impossible to

predict interest rate for an extended

period of time say the odds do favor

them going lower over the coming year

and so like those with mortgages or

getting into the market sometimes it's

not a bad idea to fix half and leave the

other half floating as a way to kind of

diversify your interest rate risk cuz

the 2-year bond yield that's already at

4% so if you're going to buy government

bonds directly they're already maret in

lower interest rates but whatever

country you're in CD term deposit

whatever they call it anything that can

be locked in close to 5% may not be a

bad deal here and any account that

offers tax advantages good idea as well

if you can get yield with a low tax rate

that always helps and speaking of taxes

post came up in my feed today from Zero

Hedge who are normally quite cynical

that a good point today based on all

this talk out there of the government

potentially introducing an unrealized

capital gains tax on the very wealthy

that is if their $100 million portfolio

is up 20% one year given a $20 million

unrealized gain they'll get a tax bill

on that however like Zero Hedge points

out the rich will find loopholes and or

leave the US like we've seen plenty of

times in history when government's

trying to do that the rich just move

country or at least for their residency

status then the threshold would drop to

100 million 50 20 10 and eventually

everyone and whilst a lot of people

might write that off as zeroedge just

being overly cynical they do actually

have a good point based on history a lot

of people might be surprised to know

there wasn't always an income tax and

I'm not just speaking about America but

but pretty much everything I say applies

to all Western countries it's all very

similar so up until 1913 Americans kept

all of their earnings there was no

personal income tax but America still

had great infrastructure standard of

living education Healthcare all of that

stuff and I think a lot of people will

be surprised to know that pretty much

all taxes are introduced at first in a

really small way often just on the

wealthy or the rich that's how the

government kind of sells it just a small

tax on a small amount of people and

that's why most of the people voting

don't care cuz it doesn't affect them

right there and then and that's what

they did back in 1913 the personal

income tax was just introduced to Target

the wealthy and the marginal tax rates

started at 1% went up to 7% in fact

looking at inflation adjusted dollar

amounts even going back to 2015 not even

using this year we know how much

inflation we've had since then you would

have had to earn about half a million

dollar before you started paying your 1%

tax and you'd have to earn 12 million

for you to pay 6% tax here we are 110

years later and look how this personal

income tax has progressed no longer

starts at today's equivalent of half a

million starts right away 10% not 1% and

then if you make over half a million 37%

of everything you make goes straight to

the government and this is not including

your goods and services tax amongst

dozens of other taxes all governments

slap on us and so if we don't all speak

out against this and push back against

it and vote differently and guess what

they're going to keep on doing taxing us

more bigger government they control more

of society's capital and don't ever let

a politician tell you that weakening

your own home country's current currency

is a good thing that is unless you want

to go the path of Venezuela or Zimbabwe

or some other Banana Republic you want

to keep your currency strong as that's

what your wealth is denominated in and

if the US dollar becomes too weak a lot

of big investors around the world may

begin to abandon it and it just adds

weight to the bricks country mission of

dollarization so reducing US Government

debt is key to upholding the value of

the US dollar and allowing the US to

retain their Global Currency Reserve

status which gives them a huge advantage

and there's a look at the dollar Index

Futures today like I said a bit

shortterm oversold here getting some

reversal signals and even though the

dollar bounced today we still got a bit

of a bounce in crude oil as well which

is not a bad thing to see crude find

support at these levels just like the

10e is as well something else I'm

looking for to find support and so it

appears to be more sideways action in

the oil Market if it really loses $70 a

barrel that's the market saying it

doesn't see much consumer demand just

around the corner just like if the

tenure started trading below 370 that's

4 in really low rates for a long time

did see a little bit of a pullback in

the gold market today it's been getting

a lot of attention of late it be

surprising to have a little pullback

here and maybe just few chips off the

table going into J pal tomorrow we could

get some movement across all financial

markets tomorrow pretty much everyone's

expecting him to come in doish it's just

how doish he will be if he came in

hawkish that would be a rug pool which

could also rug pool gold which is

looking forward to lower rates as well

and there's a look at gold Futures still

marching higher in a well- defined

uptrend here and you could kind of think

of gold is like Insurance on your wealth

when you're long gold you're short the

US dollar and there's a remarkable

correlation between the supply of the US

dollar and the price of gold and since

we've seen an explosion in the supply of

US dollars since 2020 it's really hard

to see gold diverging too much from that

in the medium term especially with

foreign central banks gobbling it up now

too and just like gold its younger

brother silver has a lot of industrial

uses it isn't just nice to hold and look

at and where is jewelry it's also used a

lot in the Solar sector and we've just

had a breakthrough coming from Samsung

and their research of solid state

batteries which could massively increase

the demand for silver and send the price

higher Market already in a supply

deficit and so this is to do with the EV

industry Samsung solid state batteries

promise an impressive 600 mile range on

a single charge and a lifespan of 20

years these batteries can charge in just

9 minutes which is one of the big

hurdles with EV adoption people hate

waiting so long for them to constantly

recharge these batteries nearly twice as

denon's current mainstream EV batteries

and they reduce the risk of fire making

them safer so who knows the industry May

be scratching the surface with what's

possible with silver and gold as well

they are really unique materials and

since there is only so much gold and

silver out there and a huge

underinvestment over the last decade

this is just another Tailwind precious

medal and there's a look at the price of

silver not as strong as gold as of late

but still having a pretty good 2024 up

about 30% what also had a good day today

was Zoom favored from the co period

jumped on better than expected results

for the second quarter lift their foure

guidance revenue for fiscal 2025 they

think will be around 4.6 billion they

just landed their largest new contract

Santa deal ever Revenue rose 2.1% from a

year earlier and there's a look at the

daily chart on Zoom pretty solid candle

there today up almost 133% being pretty

weak this year and it's gone out to a

monthly chart look at that bull market

in Co ripped straight up out of February

2020 $75 a share got up to almost 600

before it completely crashed 90% however

we could be nearing the end of a stage

one accumulation just looking at my

fundamental chart here here Revenue cash

flows and EPS estimates all trending up

it's very rare to see a high growth

stock like zoom undervalued on my fair

value indicator as well and at 21

billion market cap I think it's actually

a really reasonable valuation for Zoom

video and we just got news Kathy Wood

just dumped all of our shares as well

which I consider a pretty good

contrarian signal she hadd been long for

the last couple of years took another

massive loss for all our investors

however I think it could be a good risk

reward here on Zoom video for a one or

twoyear hold and so I'll keep an eye on

this one going forward as well okay so

just wrap things up going into tomorrow

there's fed fun Futures last look before

Jay speaks at 10: a.m. tomorrow morning

75% chance they think the FED will cut

25 basis points next month and we're

going to see how these swing around

tomorrow after we hear from J pal I'll

also be paying attention to the action

in the 2-year government bond yield

currently at 4% going into tomorrow

tenure at 385 high yield bonds sitting

at the top of their range the dollar at

the bottom of its range Bitcoin above

60,000 gold above 2500 crude at 73 a

barrel and the S&P 500 at 5570 after we

did a bearish engulfing today the balls

and Jay's caught let's see what we hear

tomorrow and the Market's reaction

should be a real interesting one thanks

for sticking with me today guys and I

look forward to breaking it all down for

you on the big day tomorrow cheers