Harry Enten: Women voters are fueling Kamala Harris’ polling surge
Summary
TLDREl guion del video analiza cómo Kamala Harris ha cambiado la dinámica de la carrera presidencial debido a su creciente ventaja entre votantes femeninos. Aunque la brecha de género existía con Biden, Harris ha ampliado su ventaja entre mujeres en votaciones nacionales e incluso en estados clave como Pennsylvania, Michigan y Wisconsin. La estrategia de Trump, enfocándose en ataques personales y evitando conferencias de prensa de Harris, no parece ser efectiva, y Harris se prepara para su discurso económico, enfatizando en reducir costos y hacer la vida más asequible para los trabajadores estadounidenses.
Takeaways
- 📊 La encuesta nacional muestra un cambio significativo en la brecha de género con la nominación de Kamala Harris, lo que podría ser un factor determinante en las elecciones.
- 🔍 Los votantes femeninos están apoyando a Harris con una ventaja de 11 puntos, una mejora notable desde la ventaja de 4 puntos que tenía Biden.
- 🏳️ El apoyo de los hombres no ha cambiado, manteniendo una ventaja de 9 puntos para Donald Trump tanto contra Biden como contra Harris.
- 🗺️ En los estados clave, como Pennsylvania, Michigan y Wisconsin, Harris mejora la ventaja de Biden entre las mujeres, pero no logra cambiar la preferencia de los hombres.
- 📈 La brecha de género en los estados de la Gran Lagosa es históricamente amplia, con Harris obteniendo un margen de 17 puntos entre las mujeres, más que Clinton en 2016.
- 💰 El precio de la vida ha aumentado un 20% desde febrero de 2020, lo que afecta la economía personal de las personas y es un tema central en la campaña de Harris.
- 🏠 Harris enfatizará en su discurso sobre la economía la necesidad de reducir los costos de la vivienda mediante la construcción de más viviendas accesibles.
- 🤔 Se cuestiona si los cambios en las preferencias de las mujeres son debido al género de Harris o a su programa político.
- 🗣️ Trump ha utilizado conferencias de prensa para realizar ataques personales contra Harris, lo que podría ser una estrategia para provocar respuestas imprevistas.
- 📉 Las conferencias de prensa de Trump parecen no estar ayudando a su campaña, ya que ha perdido apoyo en las encuestas tras eventos recientes.
- 🕊️ La estrategia de Harris de no realizar conferencias de prensa no improvisadas podría ser una táctica para evitar errores y mantener un mensaje coherente.
Q & A
¿Qué cambio significativo se ha observado en las encuestas tras la nominación de Kamala Harris para la presidencia?
-Se ha observado un aumento significativo en el margen de género, con una mayor ventaja de Harris entre las mujeres, lo que ha dado un vuelco en las encuestas a su favor.
¿Cuál es la principal razón por la que Kamala Harris está ganando en las encuestas según el script?
-La principal razón es el aumento en el margen de género, con un aumento considerable del apoyo femenino hacia el ticket democrático.
¿Cómo ha cambiado el patrón de voto entre los hombres en las encuestas nacionales tras el cambio de candidato a Kamala Harris?
-Según el script, los hombres no han cambiado sus patrones de voto; mantienen una ventaja de nueve puntos a favor de Donald Trump.
¿En qué puntos el margen de género entre los votantes femeninos ha cambiado con la nominación de Kamala Harris en comparación con Joe Biden?
-Con Joe Biden, tenían una ventaja de cuatro puntos entre las mujeres, pero con Kamala Harris, esta ventaja se ha incrementado a once puntos.
¿Cómo se compara el margen de género de Kamala Harris con el de Hillary Clinton en los estados clave de los Grandes Lagos en años anteriores?
-Kamala Harris está obteniendo un margen de 17 puntos entre las mujeres votantes, lo que es más que los 11 puntos de Hillary Clinton en 2016 y los 13 puntos en 2020.
¿Qué estrategia ha utilizado el equipo de Kamala Harris para destacar su posición económica en su discurso principal?
-Harris ha enfocado en recordar cuánto mejor es la economía hoy en día en comparación con cuando asumieron el cargo y en presentar su agenda para seguir creando crecimiento y oportunidades.
¿Qué es lo que Simon Rosenberg sugiere que Kamala Harris deba hacer en su discurso económico para diferenciarse de Joe Biden?
-Rosenberg sugiere que Harris debe enfocarse en la reducción de costos y hacer que la vida sea más asequible para las personas trabajadoras, con un énfasis en la vivienda y la reducción de los costos de la vivienda.
¿Qué críticas ha hecho Lance Travers a las políticas económicas propuestas por Kamala Harris en su discurso?
-Travers criticó las propuestas de Harris como 'controles de precios de estilo soviético', sugiriendo que estas políticas de intervención gubernamental en los precios de alimentos y medicamentos no funcionan y son similares a las de la era de los 70.
¿Cómo ha sido la estrategia de Donald Trump en sus conferencias de prensa recientes según el script?
-Trump ha utilizado sus conferencias de prensa para realizar ataques personales y destacar los altos precios de la vida, esperando provocar a Harris a aparecer en público sin guion para comparación.
¿Qué ha sido la respuesta de Kamala Harris a las conferencias de prensa de Donald Trump y las críticas personales?
-Según el script, Harris no ha tomado la provocación y no ha aparecido en conferencias de prensa sin guion, manteniéndose al margen de las respuestas imprevistas.
¿Qué reveló la investigación de CNN sobre el proyecto 2025 y cómo se relaciona con la agenda de Donald Trump?
-La investigación de CNN mostró un video secretamente grabado de uno de los arquitectos del proyecto 2025, quien también fue miembro del gabinete de Trump y director del equipo de la RNC que reescribió la plataforma oficial del partido. Aunque Trump dice no saber nada del proyecto, el video sugiere una conexión más directa.
Outlines
🔍 Análisis del vacío de género tras el cambio de candidato
Este párrafo analiza cómo la incorporación de Kamala Harris en la presidencia ha afectado la brecha de género entre los votantes. Se destaca que, a pesar de que los hombres no han cambiado su preferencia, las mujeres están apoyando en mayor medida a Harris, lo que se refleja en un aumento de la brecha de género en su favor. La discusión señala que esta tendencia es similar tanto a nivel nacional como en los estados clave, lo que sugiere un cambio significativo en la dinámica electoral.
📊 Impacto económico y propuestas de Kamala Harris
En este segmento, se discuten las consecuencias económicas del Inflation Reduction Act y las propuestas de Kamala Harris para abordar la situación económica actual. Se menciona que, aunque algunos de los planes de Harris son similares a las propuestas de la campaña de Trump, hay preocupaciones sobre la implementación de controles de precios 'a la soviética'. Además, se resalta la estrategia de Trump de realizar conferencias de prensa para desafiar a Harris a aparecer en público y su resistencia a hacer lo mismo.
🗣️ Debate sobre la estrategia de campaña y el proyecto 2025
Este párrafo presenta un debate entre dos analistas políticos sobre la estrategia de campaña de Kamala Harris y el misterioso proyecto 2025. Mientras uno argumenta que las conferencias de prensa de Trump podrían estar perjudicando su campaña, el otro sugiere que la reticencia de Harris a realizar dichas conferencias es problemática para la democracia. Además, se cuestiona la afirmación de Trump de no conocer el proyecto 2025, sugiriendo que su agenda política es coherente con los objetivos de dicho proyecto.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Kamala Harris
💡brecha de género
💡encuestas nacionales
💡estados clave
💡Inflación
💡economía
💡discurso de política
💡votantes
💡Project 2025
💡conferencias de prensa
Highlights
Kamala Harris is gaining in the polls due to a significant gender gap among voters.
National polls show a nine-point advantage for Donald Trump among men and a four-point advantage for Joe Biden among women, which has shifted to an 11-point advantage for Harris.
The gender gap is working in favor of Kamala Harris, with women voters flocking to the Democratic ticket.
In swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the gender gap is even more pronounced, with Harris up by 17 points among women voters.
Kamala Harris is performing significantly better among women voters compared to Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton in previous elections.
Harris's economic policy speech focuses on creating growth and opportunity, emphasizing not just getting by but getting ahead.
Harris proposes lowering costs and making life more affordable for working people, with a particular emphasis on housing affordability.
Critics argue that the Inflation Reduction Act signed by Biden and Harris has contributed to a 20% increase in prices, negatively impacting personal economies.
Trump's campaign accuses Harris of proposing 'Soviet-style' price controls, which they claim will not work.
Trump's press conferences are seen as an attempt to pressure Harris into more unscripted appearances where she might stumble.
Harris has not yet committed to an unscripted press conference, which some see as a missed opportunity for transparency and engagement with voters.
Trump's recent performance in the polls has dropped, with Harris now leading in all battleground states.
The Trump campaign is undergoing a shake-up with a new team to try to change the election's trajectory.
A secretly recorded video implicates a former Trump cabinet member in Project 2025, which Trump has denied knowing about.
The debate over Project 2025 raises questions about transparency and the Trump administration's involvement in political strategies.
Harris's lead in the polls and the gender gap are attributed to her appeal among women voters and her economic policy proposals.
Transcripts
with Kamala Harris at
the top of the ticket.
The presidential race has reset,
but how much has it reset
in terms of the gender gap among voters?
That is what our Harry Enten
has been looking at for you.
This morning.
And he's here with us now.
So set the scene.
How are men and women
responding to Harris?
What's the big reason
why Harris is gaining in the polls?
Yeah. All right, it's the gender gap.
It's something we've spoken
about in politics
for a long period of time,
and we're really seeing it here.
All right.
Let's take a look at the national polls
versus Democrat versus Trump margin.
And I want to point out
this is average across
the same pollsters.
Look at Biden versus Trump.
Women and men.
What we see as the gender gap is working.
And Donald Trump's
advantage yields a nine point
advantage among men against Joe Biden
and Joe Biden.
Only how to vote four point advantage
among women.
But take a look.
Now look at how the race has changed.
Instead of having a four point advantage
among women as Biden, good
look at Harris has advantage.
It leaps up to 11 points.
In fact,
men haven't changed their voting patterns
at all, at least in the national polls.
A nine point advantage
for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden,
a nine point
advantage against Kamala Harris.
What has occurred is women
voters are flocking
to the Democratic ticket.
Look at that.
Look at that.
Four points versus 11 points.
That is the reason that Kamala Harris
has turned this race around.
You said this is nationally, right?
This is nationally.
What about in swing states?
What's going on in the swing states.
So let's take a look at those Great Lakes
battleground states
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
This is among registered voters.
What do we see here?
It's a very similar picture.
Biden versus Trump women.
Biden has a little bit
a larger advantage
in those Great Lakes battleground states,
scoring those New York Times
going to college polls at ten points.
But again,
that surge among women,
we're seeing the same thing
in those battleground states
as we saw nationally.
Kamala Harris, up 70 points
among women men.
Very little change.
Donald Trump doing a little bit worse,
but still a very clear advantage.
But the same story in the swing states
as we see nationally,
the gender gap was working for
Donald Trump against Joe Biden.
And now it's working against him, against
Kamala Harris.
Is this the same smaller or bigger that?
Can you, like put it in context?
I mean, is it the same
that we normally see?
Yeah. All right. So let's take a look.
Let's go through time particularly here.
All right.
This is the Democrat versus
the Republican for president.
Again this of these key great Lake
battleground states
Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
2020 and 2016 are final.
These are the exit polls 2024 is now.
Look at the women margin.
Look at what's going on here.
Look how much better
Kamala Harris is doing.
Among women voters,
there was 11 points
Hillary Clinton back in 2016,
13 points in 2020.
Look at this margin now 17 points.
Interestingly the gender gap
becoming wider over time.
It's much wider this year
than what we're normally expecting
because in fact,
Donald Trump
is winning men voters by 15 points.
That's better than he did
in 2020, in these same states.
And it's even better than he did in 2016,
or just slightly better.
But the bottom line here is Kamala
Harris is winning this race
right now, at least in these key
battleground states,
because of what she's doing.
Women voters, women voters are energized
and is the reason that Kamala Harris
turned a deficit
that Joe Biden had into a lead.
And also, just a quick
we talked about the
we do not know,
because there's a lot that goes into it
that there that this is
because she's a woman
that's just there support for her.
Correct.
We don't know that.
We don't necessarily know the reason.
We just know she's doing better.
Women voters
significantly better than Joe Biden was
and better than either
Joe Biden or Hillary
Clinton did back in 2016.
Fascinating. Great stuff here.
Thank you so much. Thank you Sarah.
All right.
For more on this, I'm
joined by Lance Traver,
former spokesperson
for Republican Governor Doug Burgum,
2024 presidential campaign
and Democratic strategist
and consultant Simon Rosenberg.
Thank you, gentlemen, for being here.
as of July 2024, prices are 20%
higher than they were
in February of 2020,
which is people say, look,
it's crushing our personal economies.
So, Simon,
what does Kamala
Harris need to do today
in her first big policy speech,
which is on the economy?
Yeah, I mean, I think she
has to remind folks
how much better
the economy is today than it was
when we came into office.
And to lay out her agenda
for how she wants to continue
to create growth and opportunity
for the American people.
Her basic phrase
about the economy is we want people
not just to get by, but to get ahead,
which I think is a very powerful way
of talking about the economy.
And today
she's spending a lot of time talking
about how she wants
to continue
to lower costs and makes life
more affordable for working people.
It's a very sensible, commonsense agenda
that she's going to be laying out today.
I think the new thing that is going to be
that's a little bit different
from what Biden had been doing,
is a big emphasis on housing
and lowering housing costs
by building more housing in America
to make housing more affordable
across the country.
I think that's going to be a really key
part of her discussion today.
Langston.
She needs to differentiate herself,
in your opinion, from from Biden.
Well, I think the first thing
we need to remember is how we got here.
And you talked about it just now.
Prices are up over 20%.
She and Joe
Biden are the reason that's here.
Today is the anniversary of the signing
of the Inflation Reduction Act,
which, as we all know,
dumped a ton of money into the economy
and lit inflation on fire.
So that's first and foremost,
this is like the arsonist
calling the fire department today.
And look,
a couple of her proposals,
no taxing on tips and
and expanding the child
tax credit
are things that the Trump campaign
has already called for.
But what's most
disconcerting to me about this
are these, like, Soviet style
price controls
that she's going to call for
an answer like,
you know, hey, the Soviets called.
They want their price controls back.
I mean, that's about the
price controls on drugs,
on food, on food.
She's going to call
for government intervention,
price controls on food.
That's something we tried in the 70s.
It didn't work. Mean the Soviets called.
They want their economic policies back.
I find that very disconcerting.
I think it's something voters
should pay attention to.
let's talk about what
Trump has been saying.
He he had a press conference yesterday.
It began,
pretty tame talking about the economy,
staying on strip.
He talked about the high price of things
again, everything from housing to food.
But he then spent a lot of time
on personal attacks. Here's some of that.
I think I'm entitled to personal attacks.
I don't have a lot of respect
for virtually 100% of the net job
creation in the last
year has gone to migrants,
but actually,
beyond the number of 100%,
it's a much higher number than that.
Kamala is reportedly proposing communist
price controls and Maduro plan
like something straight out of Venezuela.
She actually called me weird. He's weird.
She's weird in her policy,
100% of jobs has not
gone just to migrants. All right.
this seems to be a strategy
to show that he's doing press conferences
to show
that Kamala Harris
is not doing press conferences.
Axios
put it
very succinctly
this way,
that the Trump campaign is hoping
his press conferences
will goad Harris
into more unscripted
appearances and interviews,
where they believe that vice
the vice president will stumble.
So far, though,
Harris isn't taking the bait.
All right,
so are these pressures
doing what he intends for them to do?
Lance?
Taylor. No.
If you know what
two press conferences
he's done in the last week,
how many has she done? Zero.
They won't even commit
to doing one by the end of August.
And I think that's a travesty
for the voters in this country.
But she is not stepping out
and taking questions
from reporters unscripted,
not in front of a teleprompter,
not with a scheduled list
of reporters to call on.
I mean, we're 80
some days out of an election,
and we have a presidential candidate
who isn't willing to
step in front of the media
and answer questions.
What does that tell you
in terms of what they're doing now?
Look, I get it.
I get the play
and what they're trying to do,
but at one point,
this honeymoon is going to come
to an end.
Post Labor Day,
voters are going to start keying in,
and I think they're really going to start
looking at these candidates
closely, their economic policies
and where they stand.
So I'm not sure the strategy can play out
post Labor Day for sure.
But Lance points out to in all Simon.
But when you watch these
press conferences
and the way that they go,
do they help Trump or is it backfiring?
No, I mean, Donald Trump's
performance in the last
few weeks have been
some of the most disastrous events
that we've seen in modern American
political history.
I mean, he's dropped six points
in the polls in the last few weeks.
Kamala Harris now has a lead
in all the battleground states.
we are
you know, the election has changed,
and I think it's changed in part
because the with Biden struggles
now not being in the
in the news every day,
we've gotten to see a lot more
about Donald Trump.
And it's been scary stuff.
I mean, some of the stuff
he said yesterday
reminded us
of how fundamentally unfit
and unwell he is.
And so
I do think this has been
a really rough patch
for the Trump campaign.
I think the JD Vance pick
was also something
that's dragging them down,
and somehow
they've got to change
the fundamental dynamic of this race.
They're bringing in a whole new team
to try to shake things up.
Now, we've learned yesterday
and they need to do that
because right now we're winning
and they're losing.
And if they don't somehow
fundamentally change
the trajectory of this election,
they're going to lose the election.
I got to ask you about this investigation
that was done here at CNN, showing
the secretly recorded video
of one of the architects of project 2025.
He's also a former cabinet member
for the Trump administration
and the director of the RNC team
that rewrote the party's,
official platform.
Trump says
he doesn't know anything
about project 2025.
He said that publicly several times.
But here is what one of the architects
of project 2025 said about it.
Notwithstanding,
I expect to be here
ten more times from the rally.
The president,
you know,
distancing himself
from the left's
boogeyman, a project 2025.
Yeah.
and you're not worried about that?
I worry about it.
And so I see
what he's doing is just very, very,
conscious, distancing himself
from my brand.
He's very supportive of what we do, and,
and know that we have an all
manner of things that we do that's,
you know, even unrelated to project 2025.
This is all about politics.
He says at one point,
Simon, I mean,
how does Trump keep saying
he doesn't know anything about this?
I mean, his agenda is project 2025.
There is no
he can
try all day to distance himself from it.
But what he's laid out in Simon Lands,
do you agree with that?
That is the same agenda.
Simon. You made this.
This.
You know, quip that it is about 2025
and his agenda is. Lance, do you agree?
Look, the president says he
doesn't know anything about 2025.
We take him at his word.
The media lets Kamala Harris walk back
every single one of her positions
every day.
So I think we should take
the president at his word.
But he doesn't know anything about it.
All right.
Simon Rosenberg and Lance Trevor,
thank you both
so much for talking through this with me.
Appreciate it.
تصفح المزيد من مقاطع الفيديو ذات الصلة
Las campañas presidenciales en Estados Unidos están a toda marcha
¿Puede HARRIS ganar a TRUMP? - VisualPolitik
Trump Gets RUDE AWAKENING as his ENTIRE LIFE COLLAPSES
The optics and strategy of the Harris-Trump debate | The Listening Post
Harris y Trump proponen eliminar los impuestos a las propinas si son presidentes
Las noticias de la mañana, martes 10 de septiembre de 2024 | Noticias Telemundo
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)