What Does THIS Mean for Stocks?
Summary
TLDRDer Skript bietet eine umfassende Analyse der aktuellen Aktienmarktsituation mit einem Schwerpunkt auf dem erneuten Anstieg der Aktien und der historischen Volatilität. Es diskutiert die Parallelen zur Bull-Trap der 90er Jahre und die Kaufaktivitäten von großen Investoren, insbesondere bei Walmart. Zudem werden positive Wirtschaftsdaten, wie steigende Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenansprüche, sowie die Einstellung von Goldman Sachs gegenüber Bitcoin thematisiert. Der VIX-Index und seine ungewöhnliche Vertiefung werden ebenso betrachtet wie die langfristigen Auswirkungen auf den Markt und die Bedeutung der künstlichen Intelligenz für Produktivitätssteigerungen in Unternehmen wie Walmart.
Takeaways
- 📈 Aktienmarkt steigt wieder an, zeigt aber extreme Volatilität, vergleichbar mit den 90er Jahren oder könnte es ein Bull Trap sein.
- 🛒 Große Investoren kaufen, Walmart erreicht neue Allzeithochstände, während Gesundheitsnotstand ausgerufen wird.
- 📉 Retail-Umsätze steigen, Arbeitslosenansprüche fallen, Goldman Sachs investiert in Bitcoin.
- 📊 VIX-Index zeigt einen historischen Rückgang, was auf eine schnelle Marktwiederherstellung hindeutet.
- 💹 Alle Wachstumssektoren und Risikomaßnahmen sind grün, außer Bitcoin, der nicht an der Rally teilnimmt.
- 📊 VIX-Crush hat in der Vergangenheit fast immer zu einem Anstieg des Marktes ein Jahr später geführt.
- 📉 Volatilitäts-Risiko-Prämie zeigt, dass der Markt erwartet, dass Volatilität in der Zukunft sinkt.
- 🚀 NASDAQ und Russell 2 zeigen Anzeichen für eine Erholung, aber es gibt noch Arbeit zu leisten.
- 🛍️ Positive Nachrichten wie gestiegene Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenzahlen trösten den Markt.
- 🤖 Walmart nutzt künstliche Intelligenz, um Produktivität zu steigern und Kosten zu sparen.
- 🌐 Weltgesundheitsorganisation erklärt wegen Pocken eine globale Gesundheitsnotstand, aber der Fokus liegt auf den positiven Wirtschaftsdaten.
Q & A
Was passiert in der Aktienmarkt-Analyse, die im Skript erwähnt wird?
-Der Aktienmarkt hat erneut stark zugelegt, und es wird diskutiert, ob die historische Volatilität ein Zeichen für eine Bull Trap oder eine ähnliche Situation wie in den 90er Jahren ist.
Was bedeutet 'Volatilität Crush' und warum ist es im Skript wichtig?
-Ein 'Volatilität Crush' bezieht sich auf eine plötzliche Verringerung der Volatilität, die im Skript als bemerkenswert und historisch einzigartig beschrieben wird, da sie in nur acht Handelssitzungen stattfand.
Was ist der Zusammenhang zwischen dem VIX-Index und der Realisierten Volatilität?
-Der VIX-Index repräsentiert die durchschnittliche implizite Volatilität von S&P 500 Index-Optionen für den nächsten Monat, während die Realisierte Volatilität die tatsächliche Volatilität des Marktes ist. Im Skript wird darauf hingewiesen, dass ein großer Crush im Volatilität Risiko-Premium, also der Unterschied zwischen VIX und Realisierter Volatilität, oft ein guter Tailwind für Optionen-Dealer ist.
Welche Rolle spielt die Aktienrückkehr von Walmart in der Diskussion im Skript?
-Walmarts Aktienrückkehr wird als ein Beispiel für positive Entwicklungen im Markt genannt, da das Unternehmen neue Rekorde und因其超过预期的销售额而达到历史新高。
Was ist die Bedeutung der von Goldman Sachs durchgeführten Bitcoin-Investitionen?
-Goldman Sachs' Einstieg in den Bitcoin-Markt zeigt, dass auch traditionelle Finanzinstitute an der Akzeptanz und Investition in Kryptowährungen interessiert sind, was als Struktureller Tailwind für die Krypto-Welt angesehen wird.
Was sind die Hauptfaktoren, die zu den positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt beigetragen haben?
-Die im Skript erwähnten positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt umfassen eine Verringerung der Arbeitslosenzahlen und eine Erhöhung der Einzelhandelsverkauf, was auf eine stabile bis wachsende Wirtschaft hindeutet.
Was ist die Beziehung zwischen den Diskussionen über Inflationsbedenken und den aktuellen Marktverhaltens?
-Obwohl Inflationsbedenken vor einigen Monaten eine der Hauptsorgen des Marktes waren, haben sich die Bedenken in den letzten Monaten auf die Möglichkeit einer bevorstehenden Rezession verschoben. Die aktuelle Marktentwicklung deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass weder die Föderalreserve noch die Aktienmärkte auf eine Rezession hinwirken.
Was bedeuten die Diskussionen über die Föderalreserve und die möglichen Zinssenkungen?
-Die Diskussionen über die Föderalreserve im Skript legen nahe, dass es möglicherweise keine dringende Notwendigkeit für eine Zinssenkung gibt, da die Wirtschaft weiterhin stark aussieht und die Inflationsrate abnimmt.
Welche Rolle spielen die Diskussionen über die globale Gesundheitsnotstand und die Pocken-Epidemie für den Markt?
-Obwohl die WHO den Pocken-Ausbruch als globalen Gesundheitsnotstand erklärt hat, deutet die Marktreaktion darauf hin, dass dies nicht als materialer Risiko betrachtet wird und die WHO möglicherweise vorsichtiger reagiert, um Kritik wie im Fall von COVID-19 zu vermeiden.
Was sind die langfristigen Trends, die im Skript als Investitionsziele für zukünftige Gewinne identifiziert werden?
-Im Skript werden langfristige Trends wie künstliche Intelligenz, saubere Energie, Cannabis, synthetische Biologie und Weltraumtechnik als Bereiche identifiziert, die langfristig von Interesse für Investoren sein könnten.
Outlines
📈 Aktienmarkt steigt erneut - Bullenfalle oder historisches Volatilitätsmaximum?
Der erste Absatz spricht über den erneuten Anstieg des Aktienmarktes und vergleicht die gegenwärtige Volatilität mit den 90er Jahren. Es wird diskutiert, ob wir uns dem Ende einer Bullenfalle nähern oder ob die Marktsituation anfangs 90er Jahre ähnelt. Es wird auf den Kauf von Aktien durch große Investoren, den Rekordhochstand von Walmart, globale Gesundheitsnotstände, steigende Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenansprüche hingewiesen. Zudem erwähnt der Autor, dass Goldman Sachs in Bitcoin investiert hat. Es wird auf die grüne Farbe des Marktes und die roten Wachstumssektoren eingegangen, was für Bullen positiv ist. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Volatilität des Marktes und dem historischen Volatilitäts-Crush der VIX, der in acht Handelssitzungen von 382 auf 15,2 gesunken ist, was einen 60%igen Verfall bedeutet. Historische Daten zeigen, dass nach einer solchen Volatilitätsreduzierung die meisten Male ein Anstieg ein Jahr später zu beobachten war. Die Diskussion um die Volatilitäts-Risikopremie und die prognostizierte zukünftige Volatilität durch den VIX-Index wird erläutert, wobei eine negative Volatilitäts-Risikopremie auftritt, wenn der Markt eine niedrigere zukünftige Volatilität erwartet.
🚀 Tech-Aktien und die Potenziale der künstlichen Intelligenz (AI)
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Entwicklung des Tech-Marktes und die Six-Day-Veränderung, bei der Tech-Aktien um über 11% gestiegen sind. Es wird diskutiert, ob dies ein bullish Zeichen ist, insbesondere nach einem scharfen Tief oder über ihrem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Der Absatz erwähnt die Beschleunigung von Unternehmensergebnissen und die wachsende US-Wirtschaft. Es wird auch auf vergangene Erfahrungen mit den Tech-Aktien in den 90er Jahren und den damaligen Fed-Chef Alan Greenspans Kommentar über die 'irrationale Begeisterung' des Marktes hingewiesen. Die Diskussion um die AI-Boom und die potenziellen Produktivitätsgewinne durch AI in Unternehmen wie Walmart wird erweitert. Der Absatz schließt mit der Aussage, dass die AI-Technologie in naher Zukunft jeden Bereich und Unternehmen erreichen wird, um Produktivität und Effizienz zu verbessern.
🛒 Einzelhandelsverkauf und Arbeitslosigkeit - Wirtschaftliche Indikatoren
Der dritte Absatz behandelt die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, einschließlich des Anstiegs des Einzelhandelsverkaufes um 1% im Juli, was über den Erwartungen von 0,3% liegt. Es wird auf die positiven Ergebnisse von Walmart und die damit verbundenen Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die fallenden wöchentlichen Arbeitslosenansprüche und die Industrieproduktion eingegangen, die niedriger als erwartet war. Der Absatz betont, dass die US-Wirtschaft stark ist, die Arbeitslosenzahlen fallen und die Verbraucher weiterhin ausgeben, was für eine Rezession spricht, die von einigen erwartet wird.
📉 Rohstoffmärkte und die Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft
In diesem Absatz werden die Schwierigkeiten im Rohstoffsektor und die Warnungen des weltweit größten Stahlherstellers vor einer kommenden Industriekrise beschrieben, die schlimmer sein könnte als die des Jahres 2008. Es wird auf die chinesischen Importe von Silber und Gold eingegangen, die einen Anstieg verzeichnen, während der Preis für Rohöl und die meisten anderen Rohstoffe in den letzten Monaten schwach blieben. Der Absatz diskutiert auch die Auswirkungen von geopolitischen Risiken auf den Goldpreis und die Rolle der Zentralbanken bei der Verwaltung von Bitcoin im Hinblick auf die bevorstehenden Wahlen in den USA.
📊 Historische Perspektiven und technische Analyse
Der fünfte und letzte Absatz präsentiert einen historischen Überblick über den Aktienmarkt und die Anwendung von technischer Analyse, die ähnliche Muster wie heute zeigt. Es wird ein Beispiel aus dem Eisenbahnboom der 1880er Jahre gegeben, um zu zeigen, wie ähnliche Muster wie heutzutage zu dem Zeitpunkt aufgetreten sind. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Betrachtung der aktuellen Marktsituation, einschließlich der Furcht vor zukünftiger Volatilität und der Bedeutung, diese zu einem niedrigen VIX-Wert zu kaufen. Es wird auf die globale Aktienatmosphäre und die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden Ereignisse in Bezug auf die FOMC-Mitglieder und die Preisbewegungen verschiedener Aktienmärkte eingegangen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Volatilität
💡VIX
💡Bull Trap
💡Walmart
💡Global Health Emergency
💡Retail Sales
💡Jobless Claims
💡Goldman Sachs
💡AI Boom
💡NASDAQ
💡Kryptowährungen
Highlights
Stocks surge higher with the biggest volatility crush in history, raising questions about market stability.
S&P 500 oscillator indicator nailed the market low, similar to April's market fear peak.
Market sectors show a green rally with the exception of Bitcoin, indicating a broad-based recovery.
VIX index records an unprecedented 8-day drop, surprising many market observers.
Historical data suggests that after a VIX crush, markets tend to be higher a year later.
Volatility risk premium indicates a potential tailwind for options dealers as the market prices in lower future volatility.
Retail sales surge and jobless claims fall, signaling a healthy consumer market and jobs landscape.
Walmart's stock hits new all-time highs following strong earnings and raised sales forecasts.
AI boom compared to the internet boom of the '90s, suggesting a long-term growth trajectory for tech stocks.
Investor caution highlighted by defensive positioning in bonds and utilities despite strong corporate earnings.
Walmart's use of AI is improving efficiency and productivity, showcasing the technology's practical business applications.
Global Health Emergency declared for monkeypox, impacting health and vaccine stocks.
Goldman Sachs enters the Bitcoin ETF market, reflecting growing Wall Street interest in cryptocurrency.
Technical analysis patterns from the 1880s railroad era show similarities to modern market movements.
Market breadth and trend analysis suggest a potential long-term bullish trend despite short-term volatility.
Geopolitical tensions and economic indicators influence commodities and currency markets.
Market anticipation of Federal Reserve actions influences short-term economic outlook and investor sentiment.
Transcripts
coming up today stocks surge higher
again but the biggest volatility Crush
in history is this like the mid 90s or
are we getting to the end of a bull trap
more stocks big investors are buying
Walmart surges to new alltime highs wh
declares a global Health Emergency
retail sales surge jobless claims fall
and Goldman Sachs gets into Bitcoin it's
another big day guys let's get
[Music]
it and just like that starting to feel
like Groundhog Day here isn't it Market
squeezing higher again looks like we are
doing that v-shaped recovery and my very
best case scenario in the S&P 500
pullback could be playing out and looks
like my S&P 500 oscillator indicator
nailed the low just like it did back in
April never feels like it when you get
there and that maximum fear moment we
had last Monday morning and just look at
the market color a wash with green and
all the growth sectors red where all the
Bulls want to see it volatility bond
yields dollar Index and inflation
expectations anything really not
participating in this everything rally
is Bitcoin and I'll get back to that a
bit later on but all stock sectors and
other risk on measures are green across
the board so surely we're not going back
to New alltime highs anytime soon right
and you can just imagine all those
people that loaded into put options last
Monday morning on that Peak fear so a
lot of those puts would be down 80 90%
by now not only the huge sharp move in
the Delta but just the absolute Crush in
the vix which has surprised a lot of
people myself included we've literally
retraced 50 points from last Monday's
high in just eight sessions something I
didn't even think was possible last
Monday I was quite confident we'd seen
the high in the vix for the year but I
was not expecting to see a 15 handle the
following Thursday and that's because we
just broke a new record and by quite a
large margin as well we'd already broken
the 5day 6 day 7day and now we've just
done that 8 day record for the biggest
percentage Crush in the vix we closed
last Monday at 382 here we are today at
15.2 that's a 60% drop in eight trading
sessions looking back in history the
last 19 times we had a big vix Crush
over eight trading sessions all but one
of them we were higher a year later
maximum fear usually a pretty good
starting point to measure returns from
like I showed you in previous data
points in the short term can get a
little muddy in the first month can
continue to see a little can continue to
see a little sideways up and down
however this time it's been a pretty
sharp v-shaped recovery and here's
another visualization just to show what
an absolute abnormality this vix Crush
has been looking back in history at vix
spikes when the vix has risen to close
above 35 as it did last Monday the index
has taken on average 170 trading session
before returning to 17.6 it's long-term
median reading and in fact in some
instances it's taken over 200 trading
days even 300 trading days we just did
it in eight another visualization of the
vix term structure using vix Futures
days to expiration here's Monday in the
green really popped up up the top we got
that backwardation where the second
month third month fourth month trade at
lower values then you can see last
Tuesday last Wednesday last Thursday and
then Friday and this week just
absolutely flattened out and in fact
we're already back to a normal state of
contango from right up the front on the
1 day then we've got the nday higher the
normal 30-day higher along with the
3month and 6 month so once again
volatility Market is back to normal
State pricing in higher volatility out
and like I've been pointing out to you
guys the last couple of days what was
really catching my eye was also the
massive crush and volatility risk
premium that's the the difference
between the VIX Index and realized
volatility so you can see even there
today the Market's still moving around
at an annualized rate of 21% however the
VIX Index which is a representation of
the average implied volatility of S&P
500 Index options over the next month
they're implying stock movement at an
annualized rate of 15% creates a
negative vrp of 5.7 and like I've
pointed out to you guys in the past
whenever we see that big Crush in vrp a
lot of the time good Tailwind for St
option dealers very good at pricing the
future with volatility they're happy to
sell premium 5 Points below where we're
actually trading in terms of volatility
they're forecasting lower volatility
around the corner I'd say a big part of
this pop we just got a string of bad
news and sediment coming into last week
and now we've kind of flipped and we've
got a number of good news especially
today on retail sales the jobs Market
Walmart earnings amongst other positive
developments so truly impressive this
bounce back NASDAQ back above it's
50-day Russell 2 still not quite there
even though it led the indices higher
today 22% pretty nice moves up on volume
Breet starting to get back up there same
with actual Brett stocks above their
50-day average and even though 52 we
highs outpaced new lows still a bit more
work to do there and it's also good to
see the 10year government bond yield
stabilizing in this support Zone as well
putting in a little bullish Divergence
on my DSI indicator don't even better
high yield bonds officially breaking out
to a new 52- we high today that is good
sign for risk on sediment and stick with
me today cuz I'll come back to bitcoin
and the commodity markets first just
getting back to the stock market looking
at the Six-Day change we've seen in tech
stocks bursting up over 11% last time we
saw that in late 2022 and in Co March
2020 see these momentum bursts and when
they occur after sharp lows or above
their long-term averages quite often
it's a bullish sign big rush of money
coming back into the market I think it
may have just got a bit carried away
with a Japanese Yen recession fears Etc
as I've been saying corporate earnings
are accelerating US economy is still
growing and even though there's signs
that we could be on the verge of a
recession certainly possible fed's set
to cut rates that's more often than not
associated with contractions in the
economy however we also saw the FED cut
rates in the mid 90s multiple times a
lot of people thought even back in '95
and 96 stocks were way overvalued then
fed chairman Alan Greenspan famously
quoted the stock market has been
irrationally exuberant in 1996 stocks
went on to rally for almost another five
years fact the NASDAQ more than tripled
after he said that but one similarity we
have between now and then is we could be
in the third or fourth Innings of the AI
boom just like they were at that point
of time in the internet boom like Dan
Ives from wedbush security says could be
9:00 p.m. in the AI party that's set to
go on to 4:00 a.m. and that's certainly
possible just regardless of the stock
market looking at the actual spending on
AI the use cases and I'll show you soon
what the Walmart CEO said about AI could
actually be driving some real
productivity gains in the economy
helping to continually increase
corporate margins and there was a lot of
people back in the mid late 90s didn't
like the valuation of tech stocks they
were shorting them a lot of really smart
guys blew up doing that they were right
in the end but they were early which is
just as bad as being completely wrong
and so hypothetically if you could go
back in time to 1995 would you short
teex stocks I mean just look at that
huge rip they had over the last decade
just looking at the NASDAQ 100 index
here back in 1985 was 125 by 1995 gone
up over 5x super stretched even Alan
Green span lots of media headlines
telling us how overvalued how bad things
are feds on the cusp are cutting rates
and sure all that makes sense have a
luck the old saying goes Bears sound
smart Bulls make money and the people
that are making money back then with the
momentum Traders with the trend
followers with the True Believers
whatever you want to call it cuz the
NASDAQ index went on to appreciate for
like I said another 5 years going from
that index level of 500 back in 1995 all
the way up to 4,800 now I'm not saying
this is definitely going to happen again
nobody knows exactly what's going to
happen I'm just saying it's possible
with this AI boom and who knows it could
even be bigger over the next 5 years
anything's possible in markets and
that's why we pay attention to price
action and Trends first and foremost
doesn't matter if it's a p of a th you
can still make money you're just
obviously mindful of that so when the
structure of the market does change you
see breadth deteriorate you see signs of
a big technical top the market goes
underneath its 200 day moving averages
and it's coming from a spot of
speculative Bubble Mania huge valuations
then yes you got to be more careful and
mindful of that because the draw downs
from that spot can be very harsh just
like we saw after NASDAQ Bubble Burst
from that March 200 High all the way
down to late 2002 NASDAQ retreated 83%
and even in that time big tech companies
like Amazon were growing their revenue
they dropped even more and that was a
long bear Market average bare Market
just a bit over a year around a year and
a half that went on for a couple of
years and sure there was a lot of money
lost in that period of time cuz a lot of
people had joined the party late when
they thought we're in a new paradigm so
this same pattern could very well play
out again in today's market but just
getting back to the here and now in
today's market up until about a couple
of months ago the main concern of the
market was inflation coming back that's
kind of subsided over the last couple of
months with the new fear being we're on
the cusp of a recession however looking
at the price action a lot of markets
except for fed fund Futures and
short-term bonds just really not acting
like we're on the cusp of a recession
just as corporate earnings and a lot of
other leading economic indicators are
not suggesting that either of course
things can quickly change however for
the Here and Now most things are holding
up pretty good and for sure we could be
doing a bull trap where markets have
ripped up to new alltime highs like we
were coming into July they pull back and
then we're bouncing and you can pretty
much see that pattern on the chart S&P
500 however if we break out to new
all-time highs which I think would
surprise a lot of people that would kind
of negate that pattern and plus the
long-term Trend just hasn't even been
broken either we're also starting to see
some optimism and enthusiasm come back
into the market where good news is good
again and stocks with a hot story are
ripping up we saw that today with a
space mobile ripping up over 50% as
their inaugural launch approaches said
after the Bell that its first five
commercial satellites are on track to
launch next month and serve as the
largest ever Communications arrays to be
deployed commercially in low or orbit
and this is their website here they're
kind of similar to starlink and that
they use satellites but starlink
provides complete like internet coverage
from satellites where they use them in a
more lower orbit as kind of like space
Tower communicate with mobile networks
they're looking to provide coverage all
across the globe just like Starling
especially in hard to- reach places so
it's definitely a cool story with plenty
of potential space is definitely an area
I'm interested in investing as a
long-term secular Trend along with
others like clean energy cannabis AI
synthetic biology just to name a few and
like I was saying the market just got
super excited by IT company doesn't even
really have any Revenue yet but look at
the tear it's been on this year having
started trading at $5 here we are after
hours as I speak $32 on this monster
candle today 75 million shares traded
not typically the type of moves and
stocks you see in a bare market and so
we're getting large hedge fund managers
having reported their latest moves for
the second quarter this week with their
form 13 FS getting a few more come in
after I showed you guys a bunch
yesterday seen a few of them pull out of
tech stocks some getting into Nike and
we've seen others like Paul singer
Elliot management a new 6 million share
stake in Southwest Airlines he also been
doubling down in ETD and Liberty
Broadband however what's interesting
just looking at Bank of America's Global
fund manager survey fund managers are
still really defensively positioned here
we can see that that they're overweight
bonds utilities healthare telecoms and
Staples and they're underweight rats
energy discretionary Industrials and
Tech so a lot of fund managers still
defensively positioned here like they
expect a recession even though CEOs that
run these companies are not really
expecting the same thing we got another
taste of that today on the back of
Walmart's earning stock surging a new
alltime highs after they said Us sales
Rose 4.2% year-over-year in the most
recent quarter well ahead of Wall Street
expectations of 3.5% also boosted its
forecast for fouryear sales growth to
3.75 to 4.75 up from 3 to 4 UBS retail
analyst saying Walmart is on its own
path this is less about what is
happening with the overall consumer
environment because it has been
challenging and more about Walmart so
they're saying they're a bit of an
outlier we did get weaker than expected
results from McDonald's Home Depot and
Disney but the CEO did say he's seen no
significant change in consumer spending
Trends so both core and higher income
customers continue to shop at Walmart
also interesting today thought I'd share
with you guys is what the CEO Doug
McMillan said about AI that they're
finding tangible ways to leverage
generative AI to improve the customer
member and Associate experience they're
using multiple large language models to
accurately create or improve over 850
million pieces of data in the catalog
without the use of generative AI this
work would have required nearly 100
times the current head count to complete
in the same amount of time so that's a
real material saving and productivity
boost for a non-tech company like
Walmart and so generative AI will
eventually touch every industry and
business out there to improve
productivity and efficiencies and so
this AI boom is really not going
anywhere if anything think is
accelerating and the US and tech stocks
stand to continue benefiting from that
the most and it'll spill out from other
areas from the actual Hardware being
produced into more software companies
and consumer facing apps and the back
end of businesses just like hearing
Walmart CEO report again the market was
pretty pleased with the results after it
was only a real modest beat on EPS they
like the guidance stock up 6 a half%
brand new all-time high and you know
it's election season when we've got a
new Global Health Emergency just kidding
guys but we did have the World Health
Organization just to clear a monkey pox
Global Health Emergency got some health
and vaccine stocks spiking up after the
news this is on the back of an outbreak
of the viral infection from the
Democratic Republic of Congo spread to
neighboring countries monkey is atic
disease that spreads from animals to
humans with flu likee symptoms and pus
filled lesions on the body usually mild
it can be fatal and rare cases I don't
think we're going back into Co I think
the World Health Organization after
being heavily criticized last time for
playing it down initially siding with
China I think they're a little more
sensitive and getting ahead of the curve
this time so I don't think it's a real
material risk what the Market's paying
way more attention to is the surge in
retail sales increasing 1% in July well
ahead of expectations of a 0.3 3% on an
annual basis sales Rose 2.7% junees
retail sales were revised to a 0.2%
decrease motor vehicles and parts saw
the biggest increase 3.6% and this just
came in really nicely in tandem with
Walmart's results and just helping to
lower some fears about the US economy
and consumer however it's not all that
great when you look at the long-term
average is actually 4.63% and when you
adjust it for inflation still came in
negative territory down 36% still got
inflation slightly above with those
growth and retail sales coming so the
consumers still not great just not in
dire situation at the moment and we saw
that with weekly jobless claims falling
economists were expecting 233,000 people
to file for jobless claims last week
came in 227,000 down from 234 the
previous week so that's another good
sign for the jobs Market however we saw
industrial production coming bit lower
than expectations that caused Goldman
Sachs to lower their GDP tracking for Q3
to an annualized rate of 2.4% still
pretty healthy well away from the
negative reading it would have to be if
we're already in a recession so the fact
is the US economy is still strong still
mostly employed consumers are still
spending and we're just not seeing
things fall off a cliff like a lot of
people were shouting and screaming last
Monday and those of that were out there
crying for an emergency rate cut so you
have a bit of egg on their face today as
that's starting to look more and more
like a bit of a joke and we've still got
inflation coming down we saw that with
import prices easing price of goods
coming into the economy only Rising a
low 1.6% in the 12 months ended in July
so the bond market kind of repricing all
this the yields jumping again today kind
of calming down a bit so they're still
really hanging their hat on the jobs
report we'll get in a couple of weeks
start of September also the rhetoric we
get from J pal and Jackson Hall next
Thursday and Friday as well play a key
role but we've even got one of the
biggest Bond traders in the world Pimco
saying they don't see a recession
despite that big bond market signal the
10-year 2-year still looked to being on
a path to un inverting however could
surprise us all and go back to in
inverted and continue this record long
inversion which would keep pushing out
the date of an expected recession and
looks like fed fun futures starting to
agree with me again today big material
change in their pricing they're now
saying there's a 3/4 chance the FED will
only cut 25 basis points in September
which as you guys know I've been calling
for for about 3 months now and I'd put
it at more chance they'll stay on hold
than they'll cut 50 basis points there's
no real immediate signs of pain in the
economy jobs report comes in better than
expected who knows they may stay on hold
till after the election but I still
think probably 70% chance they'll cut 25
basis points and I'd pretty much put the
other 30% that they'll stay on hold I
don't think they're going to go 50 basis
points stocks ripping up to new all-time
highs retail sales growing if
unemployment came in at 43 or 42 I mean
what's the justification to go 50 basis
points we'd have to see some real
deteriorating signs popping up soon for
that to be justified what's also good
for inflation is a very tame price of
crude oil along with most other
Commodities as well trading pretty weak
these last couple of months to get a
little bounce today doesn't seem really
worried at all about what's going on in
the Middle East probably more worried
about demand from us consumers and China
that's what's going on and Israel and
Iran's kind of taking a back seat kind
of all expecting a response from Iran by
now looks like they're not quite sure
what to do or they're building up for
something bigger Israel just dealt them
a huge Cyber attack yesterday on their
Central Bank froze their whole banking
system what looks like bit of a
preemptive attack maybe trying to Edge
them on into doing something however
their so-called supreme leader has
warned of divine wrath if Iran backs
down against Israel so they must show a
response it's just how big a response do
they give looks like they're still
unsure about have it when it comes to
War One the biggest advantages you can
have is the element of surprise for
which they have zero Israel along with
the West sitting right there at their
doorstep ready to respond the next
Second and there's a look at the price
action in crude oil just peeling back a
bit from its 50-day and gold still
hanging around all-time high even though
that jump in retail sales and soft
jobless claims showing some signs in the
US economy along with the jump up in the
bond yields could have been a reason for
gold to pull back it's still hovering up
here which I think just pricing in some
geopolitical risk also out news today is
the world's biggest steel maker warning
of a looming industry crisis that were
outpace 2008's downturn saw some really
sharp Falls and commodities back then
they were ripping going into early 08
late 07 commodity markets Emerging
Markets had a huge bull run back then
having the rebound in the Chinese
economy coming in lower than expected
construction starts falling still got a
lot of excess capacity in real estate
and that's showing up and excess steel
supplies likely to keep them overhead
pressure and iron or and other related
markets as well contrasting that as
China's importing record amount of
silver along with buying up gold taking
a sharp like Precious medals silver has
been lagging behind gold recently
however it outperformed today slapping
on almost 3% creeping back towards the
50-day vwap still holding a nice uptrend
from the start of the year but just
going out to a long-term monthly chart
on Silver Futures still well off the
highs in 2011 got up to almost $50 an
ounce so still quite a lot of catching
up to do and it's moving over to bitcoin
which is been weak last couple of weeks
correlated with the apparent rise in
Camala Harris's popularity part of the
Trump trade been unwar on small caps and
Bitcoin some mainstream media polls
showing Harris out in the lead however
if if Trump wins that could cause a big
rip in Bitcoin when the market as him
along with his VP JD Vance both Pro
crypto Bitcoin now so as Wall Street
heavyweight gobin Sachs making its debut
into the spot Bitcoin ETF Market in the
second quarter purchasing almost half a
billion worth of bitcoin funds saw that
in their latest 13f we don't know if
they got into ethereum they just hit the
market last month so we won't know until
the third quarter 30 FS are filed and
and this was on the back of news from
last week Morgan Stanley allowing their
15,000 advisers to recommend Bitcoin
ETFs to their High net worth client so
every month we get more and more Wall
Street accepting crypto and investing in
it should give it a structural Tailwind
especially like I said if the market
starts pricing in a trump Vance White
House which we'll know in about 2 and a
half months there's a look at the price
action in Bitcoin falling back there a
bit today my guess is the Biden
Administration has already started off
floating some of their confiscated
Bitcoin and may use that as a bit of a
lever as well if it starts ring as I
don't think they want it raing going
into the election as that'll favor their
opposition more so they do have a bit of
Leverage here however it looks like Wall
Street is happy to come in there and
scoop them up so we'll still be looking
for this big 50,000 support level to
hold over the coming weeks and I thought
I'd share with you guys today an
interesting chart from all the way back
in 1885 before I talk about the
technical analysis patterns some of you
may already know your stock market
history the railroad era probably one of
the greatest if not the greatest bull
markets and Booms out there probably the
real first secular Trend in stock
markets it were still pretty young New
York Stock Exchange was officially
launched 1792 under the Buttonwood tree
then in the 1800s all the Industrial
Revolution railroads a big part of that
been able to move Goods all across the
country opened up new markets a lot of
new entrepreneurs and so the railroad
boom went from the 1830s all the way up
to the late 1880s kind of picked out in
the Panic of 1893 a lot of them went
bust over leverage over capacity too
much speculation etc etc so it went on
for almost 70 years that big boom
secular Trend in railroads and it's sort
of interesting to share with you guys
this chart one of the Big Railroad
stocks back then Richmond and Danville
chart starts here in June 1882 goes all
the way to December 1886 it's a weekly
chart a little spotty however you see
similar patterns that we still see to
this day you see breakups on volume then
the price consolidates coils on low
volume breaks up again on high volume
consolidates on low volume then rinses
and repeats the same pattern you see the
same thing to this day 140 years later
principles of price action technical
analysis don't change it's not a perfect
science just the best way to visualize
demand and Supply in the market and this
is a logarithmic chart so look at that
move off the low of $32 in September
1884 2 years later it's ripping up to
160 they had their huge moves bull
markets all that stuff back then it's
nothing new and I have no doubt in 140
years from now it'll still be the same
as long as humans can buy and sell
stocks there'll always be fear and perod
and Trend in financial Market that you
just don't simply see in a random string
of data and just getting back into the
charts here's a 5day relative sector
performance see Tech Head and Shoulders
leading this bounce back here along with
consumer discretionary down the bottom
rats energy and utility especially today
a real risk-on growth move out there and
like I said just look at that market
color a wash with green truly impressive
this bounce back but even more
impressive surprising a lot of us
absolute Crush in the vix volatility if
you are worried about volatility around
the corner one thing for sure it's a lot
better to buy it when the vix is at 15
versus 65 and just like I showed you
guys last Friday on the weekly charts of
e mini Futures these big hammer candle
formations just look to be playing out
as the textbooks describe them and that
looks to especially be the case in the
Nicki 225 Japanese stocks huge Spike
down massive buy the dip same with Euro
stocks and even a little bit with
Chinese stocks so wouldn't you not we're
only 120 points away from all-time highs
on the S&P 500 cash index and just
reclaimed that advancing trend line I've
had drawn in there and like I've been
saying that Peak a negative sediment
people pile into put options just set up
a big max pain trade higher here however
it could all come tumbling down if J pal
indicates to us next week in Jackson
Hall that he may think about holding
rates I don't think the stock market
would like that otherwise the economy
corporate profits all continuing to grow
price action breadth volatility bond
market dollar and even Global Bret all
indicate risk on Canada's TSX UK footsie
German Dax back above the 50 and the
Aussie 00 as well we've got some Global
Equity breath going on here that wraps
up the daily market review for this
bullish Thursday we'll see what the last
day of the week brings us and I'll break
it all down again for you guys thanks
very much for all your support and I'll
see you then cheers
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