Explained | The Stock Market | FULL EPISODE | Netflix
Summary
TLDRThis script explores the disconnect between the booming stock market and the stagnation of the American economy, questioning the true measure of prosperity. It delves into the history and mechanics of stock markets, the shift from public to shareholder-focused corporations, and the impact on jobs, wages, and inequality. The narrative challenges the prevailing belief that a rising market equates to a healthy economy, highlighting the need for long-term sustainability over short-term gains.
Takeaways
- 📊 The stock market is often seen as an indicator of the economy's health, but it doesn't always reflect the actual growth of the economy or the average American's financial situation.
- 🏛 The stock market's historical performance has been mostly positive, with a significant increase in value over the past 40 years, yet wages and the average family's net worth have not seen the same growth.
- 🍋 The script uses a lemonade stand analogy to explain the concept of an IPO, where investors can buy shares of a company and potentially benefit from its growth and dividends.
- 🌐 The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are two major stock exchanges in the U.S., with the former being traditional and the latter focusing on tech companies and operating electronically.
- 📈 Stock market indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average provide a simplified view of the market's performance by aggregating the prices of multiple shares into a single number.
- 🏭 In the past, large corporations were often controlled by a single shareholder, but the shift towards public trading allowed for faster growth and a more democratic investment approach.
- 💡 The stock market can drive companies to make good decisions to increase their share price, which can benefit shareholders, but it can also lead to short-term focus at the expense of long-term growth and sustainability.
- 📉 Stock market bubbles, like the Dot Com bubble, can lead to significant economic downturns when they burst, affecting not just investors but the broader economy as well.
- 💼 Milton Friedman's philosophy that corporations should focus solely on maximizing shareholder profits has influenced corporate behavior, often at the expense of other stakeholders.
- 💰 The focus on short-term profits has led companies to prioritize share buy-backs and dividends over investments in growth, innovation, and employee wages.
- 🌍 Stock markets can be a force for good by driving companies to innovate and grow, but they can also exacerbate inequality and economic instability if not properly regulated and managed.
Q & A
Why is the stock market often considered an indicator of the economy's health?
-The stock market is often seen as a barometer of the economy's health because it reflects the collective value of companies and investor confidence. When stock prices rise, it suggests that investors believe these companies will be profitable in the future, which can indicate economic prosperity.
What is an IPO and how does it relate to the stock market?
-An IPO, or Initial Public Offering, is the process by which a private company goes public by offering its shares to be traded on a stock exchange. It relates to the stock market as it allows the public to invest in the company, which can increase the company's capital and potentially its stock price.
How do dividends play a role in the stock market?
-Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits. They play a role in the stock market by providing a return on investment to shareholders, which can influence the demand for a company's stock.
What is the difference between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ index?
-The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks the stock performance of 30 large companies considered representative of the market, while the NASDAQ index is an electronic marketplace that focuses on technology companies and tracks over 3,000 companies.
Why might a company choose to buy back its own shares?
-A company might choose to buy back its own shares to increase the value of remaining shares, improve financial ratios, or to make the company less attractive to potential acquirers. It can also be a way to return capital to shareholders.
How did the stock market contribute to the growth of the American middle class?
-The stock market contributed to the growth of the American middle class by providing investment opportunities that were not just limited to the wealthy. As public corporations grew and shared their success through dividends and increased stock values, average Americans could build wealth and enjoy a higher standard of living.
What is value investing, and why is Warren Buffett known for it?
-Value investing is an investment strategy that involves selecting stocks that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic value. Warren Buffett is known for this strategy because he has achieved significant success and wealth by investing in undervalued companies with strong fundamentals.
What is the concept of 'beauty contest game' as related to stock market investing?
-The 'beauty contest game' is a concept introduced by John Maynard Keynes to describe a situation where investors do not necessarily invest based on their own judgment of a company's value, but rather on what they believe the market consensus will be, similar to guessing which faces the crowd will find most attractive in a newspaper contest.
How can stock market bubbles impact the economy when they burst?
-When stock market bubbles burst, it can lead to significant economic downturns. Investors lose money, which can lead to reduced spending and investment. Companies may go bankrupt, jobs are lost, and the overall economy can enter a recession.
What is the philosophy of Milton Friedman regarding the purpose of a corporation?
-Milton Friedman believed that the primary responsibility of a corporation is to generate profits for its shareholders. He argued against the idea of corporate social responsibility, stating that businesses should focus solely on maximizing returns for their investors.
How has the focus on shareholder value potentially led to negative consequences for stakeholders?
-The focus on shareholder value can lead to short-term thinking, where companies prioritize actions that boost stock prices immediately, such as cost-cutting and stock buybacks, over long-term investments in innovation, employee welfare, and community development, which can ultimately harm the company and the economy in the long run.
What is the role of stockholders in influencing a company's behavior and values?
-Stockholders, through their investment and voting power, can influence a company's behavior by advocating for practices that align with their values. They can push for companies to consider the interests of all stakeholders, including employees, customers, and the environment, not just maximizing profits for shareholders.
Outlines
📊 Stock Market and Economic Illusion
This paragraph delves into the common misconception that a thriving stock market is synonymous with a prosperous economy. It highlights the U.S. stock market's impressive performance over nearly 40 years, with record highs and significant gains in value. However, it contrasts this with the reality of stagnant wages and the average American family's net worth, which has yet to recover from the Great Recession. The paragraph questions what the stock market truly measures and uses the analogy of a lemonade stand to explain the concept of IPOs, stocks, and dividends, emphasizing the disconnect between market performance and the broader economy's health.
🌐 The Evolution of the Stock Market and Its Impact
This section explores the evolution of the stock market from a platform dominated by a few wealthy individuals to a public arena where average Americans could invest and potentially grow wealth. It discusses the rise of public corporations in the 20th century, which allowed for rapid growth and innovation, and their role in creating shared prosperity post-World War II. The paragraph also touches on the investment strategies of value investors like Warren Buffett and the concept of index funds, which spread investment across multiple companies to reduce risk. It also introduces the idea that stock prices are driven by popular narratives rather than the intrinsic value of companies, leading to speculative bubbles and economic instability.
💸 The Consequences of Short-Term Market Focus
This paragraph examines the shift in corporate philosophy from long-term growth and stakeholder value to short-term profits and shareholder returns, as advocated by economist Milton Friedman. It details how this shift has led to practices such as stock buybacks and dividend payouts, which can artificially inflate stock prices but at the expense of long-term investments in the company. The narrative illustrates the negative consequences of this approach, including job losses, factory closures, and wage stagnation, which ultimately harm the economy and society while benefiting a select few investors.
📉 The Paradox of Prosperity and Inequality
The final paragraph addresses the paradox of a booming stock market coexisting with economic inequality and the decline of middle-class participation in the market. It points out that while stock prices have soared, so has income inequality, with fewer Americans benefiting from market gains. The section argues that stock markets have the potential to be a force for good, allowing shareholders to influence corporate behavior and promote sustainable practices that benefit society. It calls for a reevaluation of values and a focus on long-term sustainability over short-term profits.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Stock Market
💡IPO (Initial Public Offering)
💡NASDAQ
💡Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow)
💡S&P 500
💡Dividends
💡Stock Buy-Back
💡Shareholder
💡Value Investing
💡Stock Market Bubble
💡Economic Inequality
Highlights
The stock market is often perceived as an indicator of the economy's health, with record highs suggesting prosperity.
Despite the stock market's growth, wages and the average American family's net worth have not seen proportional gains.
The stock market measures the value of companies through the buying and selling of shares, reflecting investor sentiment rather than actual business performance.
IPOs, like Jill's lemonade stand example, allow businesses to grow by selling shares to the public, which can also benefit investors through dividends.
The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are key platforms for trading shares in major companies, with indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones providing an overview of market performance.
Historically, public corporations have contributed to the American middle class's growth and have been seen as beneficial to society.
Warren Buffett's value investing approach and recommendation to invest in S&P 500 index funds for long-term growth are highlighted.
John Maynard Keynes' beauty contest analogy illustrates the influence of popular belief on stock prices rather than intrinsic company value.
Stock market bubbles, like the Dot Com boom and bust, demonstrate the potential for economic instability and job losses when these bubbles burst.
Milton Friedman's philosophy that corporations exist primarily to maximize shareholder profits has significantly influenced corporate behavior.
The focus on short-term profits, driven by shareholder value, can lead to practices detrimental to long-term economic health, such as layoffs and factory closures.
The widening gap between CEO and worker pay reflects the increasing inequality in wealth distribution as the stock market grows.
The decline in the number of Americans invested in the stock market corresponds with rising economic inequality.
Stockholders have the potential to influence corporate behavior towards more socially responsible practices for long-term sustainability.
Despite current trends, stock markets offer opportunities for broader public participation and can drive companies towards positive societal impacts.
The transcript emphasizes the need for a balance between short-term shareholder value and long-term stakeholder interests for a healthier economy.
Transcripts
[bell rings]
I've always wondered myself,
why do we have to hear this every night, what the stock market is doing.
Seventy record closing highs so far...
[woman] Blasting through a ceiling In a record-setting IPO.
-Investors who've been riding the wave... -[narrator] When the market's booming,
we're made to believe the economy is booming.
And in America, the stock market has been mostly booming for almost 40 years,
[man] As the stock market goes, so goes the wealth
and the health of the American economy.
What the market is telling us is that we are on the road to prosperity.
...a sky-rocketing stock market, and that benefits everyone.
The stock market has gained almost three trillion dollars in value
since the election.
[narrator] But if you add up all the goods and services bought and sold in the US,
the actual economy, that number isn't growing as quickly as it used to.
Wages have hardly budged in decades
and the average American family's net worth
still hasn't recovered from the Great Recession.
So what exactly is the stock market measuring?
[man] The barometer of America's prosperity has been the stock exchange.
Look at the Dow, it's currently up by...
The NASDAQ finally hit 5,000.
Investors are salivating...
-Dividends! -[man] A new kind of gold rush...
We are all watching this global economic expansion...
We are now in historic territory...
A stock buy-back...
[woman] It's a fundamentally psychopathic philosophy.
[crowd applauding]
[narrator] To understand what stock markets are measuring,
it helps to imagine a very simple business like a lemonade stand.
-Jill is killing it. -[Jill] But I'm thinking bigger.
I tried to get a loan, but the bank said it was too risky.
The rich investors weren't buying.
[narrator] Jill has another option.
She can go public, giving anyone who wants to,
-the chance to invest in her business... -[clamoring]
...through something called an initial public offering or IPO.
Investors pay a certain amount, say a dollar, to own a small part
or share of Jill's business.
Jill sells a bunch of shares.
[Jill] And I grow my lemonade empire!
[narrator] Right, Jill can put that money towards opening new lemonade stands,
which means more profits.
Jill can put some of those profits towards developing new products.
She can also give some of that money back to her investors.
These are called dividends.
She doesn't have to do this, but it does help get people excited
about her company and more likely to buy her stock,
like Sam. He was sick on IPO day, but he thinks...
[Sam] Jill is the smartest girl in the whole world,
and I know this lemonade stand thing is gonna be huge.
[narrator] So he offers to buy some shares from one of the original investors
for twice what she paid for them.
He's thinking...
[narrator] That's the stock market.
It's people buying and selling tiny pieces of companies,
based on how much they think those pieces will be worth in the future.
Except in real life,
it's happening thousands of times a second, all over the world.
There are stock markets everywhere,
but the New York Stock Exchange is the big kahuna.
It's been around since 1792,
when 24 stockbrokers put on their finest short pants and top hats
and got together under a buttonwood tree on Wall Street in New York City.
Today, it's where shares in big traditional companies like IBM
and GE are traded.
The NASDAQ is the cooler younger brother.
It was born in 1971 and doesn't have a physical location.
All the trading happens electronically.
That's where you find tech companies like Apple and Facebook.
So, in America if you want to know how the stock market is doing,
you want to know how both these exchanges are doing.
That's where indexes come in.
They take a whole bunch of share prices and transform them into one clean number.
The S&P 500 tracks 500
of the largest companies on both exchanges,
While the Dow is a lot more exclusive.
It only follows the 30 companies it considers the most important.
In 2015, it booted out AT&T and replaced it with Apple.
The Dow and S&P are big American indexes, but other countries have their own indexes
to measure their stock markets.
The German stock index, Dax...
[woman] London's FTSE 100 index...
The Nikkei index...
[woman] The Shanghai index...
[narrator] Today, many of the world's biggest companies are publicly traded,
but that wasn't always the case.
One guy, and it was almost always a guy, used to call all the shots.
Big corporations of the 1900s, most of them at that time
had a single shareholder like Andrew Carnegie,
Vanderbilt.
Rockefeller.
They really exercised very tight control over these businesses.
This all began to change in the beginning of the 20th century.
We start to see the rise of companies like General Motors
and General Electric and RCA.
[narrator] Companies discovered what Jill discovered,
that if you allow the public to buy shares, you can grow a lot faster.
Shareholders want to make money.
So if the CEO makes a really bad decision,
they'll start selling their shares, which will drive the price down.
The opposite is also true. The possibility of a future payout
encourages people to invest in risky new ideas.
That's the whole idea of the stock market as a force for good.
It drives companies to make good decisions,
so they have more money to give back to shareholders
and more money to grow and create jobs, and that's good for everybody.
By the middle of the 20th century, the American public corporation
was proving itself one of the most effective and powerful
and beneficial organizations in the world.
[man] There's a sense of growing prosperity,
and the telephone company is a grateful participant.
[narrator] Decades after World War II, the stock market helped create the heyday
of shared American prosperity.
[man] A new era begins, make the system more democratic,
increase the flow of capital for the financing of business.
The corporation really was supposed to be a vehicle
for providing investment opportunities, not just to the very, very wealthy,
but to average Americans.
It's generating superior returns for investors.
Don't you think we ought to invest?
[Stout] Millions of secure, well-paid jobs.
It's producing innovative products that are bought around the globe.
Executives and directors viewed themselves as stewards or trustees
of great public institutions that were supposed to serve,
not just shareholders, but also bondholders,
suppliers, employees, the community.
[man] Buick has provided a stomping ground for the cowboy-and-diaper set.
And Buick's general manager, Ivan Wiles, drops in.
[man 2] Du Pont...
Modern chemistry and modern industry join hands
in serving our modern America.
[narrator] These public corporations helped build the American middle class,
and for people who knew how to play it right,
trading their stocks could build a fortune.
Like this guy.
♪ I've been working on the railroad... ♪
[narrator] Folk music is just his hobby. Mostly, he's the billionaire investor...
[both] Warren Buffett...
-Biggest Wall Street titan of them all. -America's most famous investor.
[woman] Investor Warren Buffett is worth 84 billion.
[narrator] Buffett is famous for a particular investment style.
Value investing, careful analysis of a company,
looking at their balance sheet, looking at their business.
[narrator] If you don't have time,
here's a tip from the man himself.
Buy an S&P 500 low-cost index fund.
[narrator] An index fund puts a little bit of your money
in all companies in the index.
Basically, you're hitching your wagon to the stock market.
The other option is to give your money to professional investors,
who for a fee, try to beat the stock market.
Buffett once bet a hedge fund a million dollars that over ten years,
an index fund would make more money, and he won.
Picking stocks is a hard game but there's one popular strategy.
This guy, John Maynard Keynes.
You can remember him by his epic mustache.
He came up with it. Keynes was a Nobel Prize winner
and one of the most influential economists of the 20th century,
and he noticed that newspapers would do this thing.
[Robert Shiller] They would have a full page of the newspaper dedicated
to photos of pretty faces,
and you were supposed to pick the six prettiest faces
and mark them down in rank order and mail them in to the newspaper.
[narrator] The newspaper would rank faces based on how many votes they got,
and the winner was the person whose choices matched the crowd's.
[Shiller] Let's think about that contest.
Do I really just pick what seem to me the prettiest faces?
No, I should pick what other people think are the prettiest faces.
That's kind of what happens in the stock market.
[narrator] It's not the real value of companies that drive their stock prices.
It's the most popular story people believe about those companies.
Sometimes those stories are backed up by facts.
[man] Chipotle stock has plunged more than a third.
This comes after several outbreaks, including E. coli, salmonella
and norovirus were linked to the chain.
An emissions scandal rocking Volkswagen is sending its stock into a free fall.
[narrator] But sometimes those stories are all hype.
[man] Internet companies are the hottest and most profitable investments
-in a generation. -[shouting]
They've driven the value into the stratosphere.
Lycos, Excite, Yahoo...
Those internet stocks continue their meteoric rise.
The narrative in the 1990s was
internet companies are going to dominate.
These companies shouldn't be trying to make profits.
That's a good story, which is partly right.
We do have companies like Amazon, Google.
The problem is that nobody had any way to calibrate this story.
How high should the market be?
Is it a boom without end?
[man] Has the economy changed for good?
You know something's wrong when everyone's talking about
something like this. It's a bubble, it's like a snowballing effect.
It keeps getting higher and higher. It can't go on forever.
The Dot Com Honeymoon is coming to a close in many parts of the world.
Many dot coms have become dot bombs.
[man] 300,000 tech jobs are now gone.
[man 2] It's described as nothing short of breathtaking.
A points drop never before seen on the US market.
It left traders and investors shell-shocked.
[narrator] When stock market bubbles burst,
it doesn't just hurt investors, it wreaks havoc on the whole economy.
Millions of people can lose their jobs, companies go under,
and pensions get pummeled.
But even when the stock market is up and investors are making money,
that can hurt the economy, too.
We are heading towards the most acute shortages of energy
since World War II.
[man] Motorists began lining up before dawn in hopes of getting enough gasoline
to take them through the day.
[man 2] Are you mad about the way prices have risen?
I am thoroughly discouraged and disgusted with the whole thing.
[Stout] There was a general sense of concern that something had gone wrong
in the American economy.
And eventually, the finger got pointed at the way our large public corporations
were operating and being run.
[narrator] Meet the chief finger pointer-- Milton Friedman.
An economist so famous, he was invited onto popular talk shows
to help explain his philosophy.
Did you ever have a moment of doubt about capitalism?
And whether greed's a good idea to run on?
Tell me, is there some society you know that doesn't run on greed?
[narrator] Remember the wheel? Friedman was not a fan.
He thought it should have exactly one spoke, shareholders.
In 1970, he published a blockbuster op-ed.
[Stout] The famous editorial that ran in The New York Times,
in which he said that because corporations were owned by their shareholders,
the only obligation of business was to make profits.
[narrator] Gordon Gekko's character in Wall Street
epitomizes Friedman's philosophy.
You own the company, that's right, you the stockholder,
and you are all being royally screwed over by these bureaucrats.
Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.
[narrator] And corporations took his advice.
[Stout] They start tying the top executives' pay
to share price performance.
Well, if 80% of the CEO's pay is based
on what the share price is going to do next year,
he or she is going to do their best to make sure that share price goes up.
Even if the consequences might be harmful to employees, to customers, to society,
to the environment or even to the corporation itself in the long-term.
[narrator] CEOs put more money towards things that would increase stock prices
in the short-term, like cutting costs or buying back a bunch of their own shares
to decrease the supply and artficially bump up the price.
Between 2007 and 2016, that's how companies in the S&P 500
spent more than half their earnings.
Another 39% went to their shareholders as dividends,
which didn't leave much left to raise wages or expand
or develop new products,
things that are good for the economy in the long-term.
If you have a long-term view that 100 years from now,
I still want to be a company, maybe making something different,
but I still wanna be here. So the choices that you make
in terms of investments and people and in capital are different than
if you want to make an investment and generate a return within 24 months.
[narrator] In 2012, the Wausau Paper Company was making investments
to switch its factories from making printing and writing paper
to making tissue paper.
But then a hedge fund bought up a bunch of shares
and pushed the company to cut costs instead.
Their argument would be, "We don't need to do that.
What I'd rather see you do is to increase the dividend."
As management, we disagreed with that.
We offered concessions.
We'd take a cut in pay just to leave the doors open.
[woman] Wausau Paper says it plans to close the Brokaw Mill by March 31st...
[man] Leaving about 450 people without work.
The news is devastating, not just to the workers who will lose their jobs,
but to the community of Brokaw, where the paper company got its start.
December 7th, and I'll never forget that, that's when Pearl Harbor was,
but that's the day I was burying my father,
and it's the day I lost my job.
Then the next day, I came to work, and it was just a madhouse.
You know, people just crying.
You know, "Why?" You know? And...
It was a shock.
[Hank Newell] My concern is we've evolved to this much shorter-term view
on shareholder rights,
versus a longer-term view on stakeholder responsibilities.
This is a trend that's been going on for a while
and has gotten even more powerful and important.
It's seriously threatening the ability of our corporations
to pursue the kinds of projects that lead to long-term corporate sustainability
and economic growth.
[narrator] Laying off workers, closing factories, keeping wages low.
These are things that are bad for the economy overall,
but can be great for a company's short-term profits
and that's what the stock market cares about.
The stock market got off to an impressive start...
Another record today...
A day for the record books on Wall Street...
The US economy charges ahead and so do the bulls on Wall Street.
This was a big day on Wall Street...
The S&P 500 has raced out to a new all-time high.
[narrator] As the stock market has grown, so have CEO paychecks.
In 1973, the average CEO made about 22 times more
than the average worker.
By 2016, it was 271 times more.
And as the stock market has grown bigger, fewer Americans have benefited.
The share of Americans invested in the stock market is at its lowest point
in 20 years, as the middle class dropped out.
So it's no surprise that as stock prices have gone up in the United States,
so has inequality, but it doesn't have to be this way.
Stock markets give people a chance to decide
which companies deserve to succeed, which ideas are worth a gamble.
There's something about giving people games to play.
You look at successful countries and they all have stock markets,
and countries that tried to shut them down
are coming around and instituting them now.
[narrator] Stockholders can influence how companies behave,
whose interest they take into account.
Most of us are thinking about our long-term futures.
We care about our neighbors and our children and our grandchildren.
We have values and morals and want our companies to make money
by doing things that are good for the world
and not by harming people and destroying it.
That's what most shareholders really want.
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