Adu Saham Kapal, TMAS vs SMDR, Siapa yang Terbaik?

Summary

In this 'Head to Head' episode on the 'mikir duit' YouTube channel, Surya compares two shipping stocks, SMDR and TEMAS, within the same sector. The video explores their financial performances, with both showing a decline in Q1 2024. TEMAS is investing in new ships and port services, while SMDR is impacted more by international freight rates. Both companies face challenges, but SMDR seems more affected by global fluctuations. The video concludes with a valuation analysis, suggesting TEMAS is overpriced and SMDR offers better value, considering future growth prospects.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video introduces a new playlist called 'Head to Head' on the 'mikir duit' YouTube channel, comparing two stocks in the same sector.
• 📈 The stocks being compared are SMDR and TEMAS, both related to shipping and logistics.
• 🚢 The performance of these stocks is closely tied to international container freight rates and demand for shipping containers.
• 📉 TEMAS has been experiencing a financial downturn, with a 3.78% decrease in revenue in Q1 2024 and a 43% decrease in net profit.
• 🔄 TEMAS is investing in new ships and port services, expecting improvements in performance from 2025 onwards.
• 💰 TEMAS is also exploring environmentally friendly energy transportation as a new business venture.
• 📊 SMDR's performance mirrors TEMAS, with a 24.69% decrease in revenue in Q1 2024, mainly due to a drop in shipping services.
• 💹 SMDR plans to invest heavily in new ships and has already spent a significant amount on this initiative, expecting to see results in the near future.
• 🌐 SMDR's performance is more impacted by global freight rate fluctuations, especially after adding new routes in the Middle East.
• 💼 Both companies have manageable debt levels and potential for further investment in capital expenditure.
• 💡 The valuation of TEMAS's stock is considered expensive as of July 12, 2024, while SMDR's stock is seen as undervalued with potential for growth.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the new 'Head to Head' playlist on the 'mikir duit' YouTube channel?

The main theme of the 'Head to Head' playlist is to compare two stocks in the same sector and provide an analysis on which one is more attractive according to the channel's perspective.

What are the two companies being compared in the video script?

The two companies being compared are SMDR (Semen Indonesia) and TEMAS (Tunas Melayu Samudera).

What is the connection between the rise in shipping container prices and the sentiment towards shipping and logistics stocks like SMDR and TEMAS?

The rise in shipping container prices is usually closely related to the increase in container freight rates or the cost of international container packaging. If these prices rise, it becomes a positive sentiment towards shipping and logistics companies, as it indicates an increase in demand for shipping containers.

How does the increase in international container shipping rates affect the performance of SMDR and TEMAS?

The increase in international container shipping rates significantly impacts the performance of SMDR and TEMAS, as it can be a sign of increased demand for shipping container services. However, TEMAS might be less affected as most of its market is domestic, while SMDR could be more impacted due to its larger international shipping fleet.

What is TEMAS's business model according to the script?

TEMAS operates in two main business areas: shipping services related to container ships and port services for unloading and loading operations.

What was the financial performance of TEMAS in the first quarter of 2024?

In the first quarter of 2024, TEMAS continued to experience a downward trend in financial performance, with a decrease in revenue by 3.78% to 1.07 trillion and a profit of 16.57 billion from a previous loss of 21 billion.

What are TEMAS's plans for capital expenditure in the current year?

TEMAS has planned capital expenditure of around Rp1.3 trillion for the year, which will be used to purchase 8 new ships with a capacity of 400 to 600 TEUs. 30% of this capital expenditure will come from internal cash, and the rest from loans.

What is the potential growth area for TEMAS in the near future?

TEMAS has the potential for growth in its port unloading and loading services, as it has recently won a 20-year tender for the Tanjung Priok Container Terminal, which will start operating from December 2, 2024.

What is the current valuation of TEMAS's stock as of July 12, 2024?

As of July 12, 2024, the stock price of TEMAS is considered expensive, with a fair value estimated to be around 157, and the discounted cash flow value is around 145.

What is the financial performance of SMDR in the first quarter of 2024?

In the first quarter of 2024, SMDR's financial performance also continued to decline, with a decrease in revenue by 24.69% to 156 million USD, mainly due to a drop in the shipping business sector.

What is SMDR's plan for capital expenditure and fleet expansion?

SMDR has planned to spend 280 million USD for capital expenditure to add 12 ships to its fleet. The company has already invested around 100 million USD in purchasing ships and is considering issuing bonds to finance the remaining expenditure.

What is the potential impact of the increase in freight rates on SMDR's performance?

The increase in freight rates is expected to have a significant impact on SMDR's performance, especially considering the company's management has added shipping routes to the Middle East during the Red Sea conflict, which has improved its performance compared to previous estimates.

What is the current valuation of SMDR's stock as of July 12, 2024?

As of July 12, 2024, the stock price of SMDR is considered undervalued, with a fair value estimated to be around 503, and the discounted cash flow value could reach up to 1000, assuming a return to positive growth in performance by 2025.

Which company would you prefer between TEMAS and SMDR based on the script's analysis?

The script suggests a preference for SMDR due to its undervalued stock price and potential for growth, although it also acknowledges the attractiveness of TEMAS's business model and recent tender win.