Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels: The True Cost of Energy
Summary
TLDRDieses Video skizziert die Kosten der verschiedenen Energiequellen, indem es den Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) berechnet und durch einen Rennwagen-Analogien erklärt. Es vergleicht erneuerbare Energien wie Solar- und Windenergie mit fossilen Brennstoffen wie Kohle und Gas. Es zeigt, dass trotz der niedrigen LCOE-Werte von Solar und Wind für fossile Brennstoffe wie Kohle und Gas zusätzliche Kosten wie Finanzierungs- und Brennstoffkosten die Gesamtkosten erhöhen können. Der Fokus liegt auf der Wichtigkeit, die Verfügbarkeit und der tatsächlichen Nutzungszeit der Energie zu berücksichtigen, um ein vollständiges Bild der Kosten zu erhalten.
Takeaways
- 🔋 Die günstigste Energiequelle hängt nicht von einem Faktor allein ab, sondern muss durch den Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) berechnet werden, um die Gesamtkosten zu vergleichen.
- 💰 Der LCOE berücksichtigt die gesamten Kosten, einschließlich der Anlage- und Betriebskosten, sowie die Lebensdauer der Energieanlage.
- 🏭 Die Kapitalkosten für 500 Megawatt nameplate-Kapazität sind für Solarpanelanlagen am günstigsten, gefolgt von Verbundgas und Windkraft, wobei Kohlekraftwerke am teuersten sind.
- ⚡ Die Leistungsfaktoren variieren je nach Energiequelle: Kohle hat den höchsten, Solar den niedrigsten, während Gas und Windkraft mittlere Werte aufweisen.
- 🌞 Solarenergie erfordert im Vergleich mehr Kapazität, um den gleichen Energieertrag wie Kohle zu erreichen, insbesondere wenn man die Lebensdauer und den Leistungsfaktor berücksichtigt.
- 🏁 Nach Berücksichtigung von Kapitalkosten und Leistungsfaktor liegt Solarenergie immer noch als kostengünstigste Option vor, gefolgt von Gas und Windkraft, wobei Kohle sich durch höheren Leistungsfaktor und längere Lebensdauer verbessert.
- 💸 Finanzierungskosten sind entscheidend für den LCOE und können die Kosten verdoppeln. Erneuerbare Projekte haben oft bessere Finanzierungsbedingungen als Kohleprojekte.
- 🛢 Die Brennstoffkosten für fossile Brennstoffe wie Gas und Kohle sind ein wichtiger Faktor im LCOE und können stark schwanken, insbesondere bei Gas, das an Preisschwankungen betroffen ist.
- 🛠 Betriebs- und Wartungskosten variieren ebenfalls und haben einen Einfluss auf den LCOE. Solarenergie hat hier die geringsten Kosten, gefolgt von Gas, während Wind- und Kohlekraftwerke höhere Kosten haben.
- 🏁 Nach Einbeziehung aller Kostenfaktoren liegen 2021 Solarenergie und Windenergie als kostengünstigste Energiequellen vor, während fossile Brennstoffe deutlich hinterherhinken.
- 📉 Der LCOE ist ein wertvolles Instrument zur Kostenvergleichbarkeit verschiedener Technologien, aber er kann die Verfügbarkeit und den tatsächlichen Wert der Energie zu bestimmten Zeiten nicht vollständig berücksichtigen.
- 🔄 Die zunehmende Integration von erneuerbaren Energien in das Stromnetz macht die Verfügbarkeit der Energie zu einem wichtigeren Faktor, und der Value Adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) könnte ein besseres Bild der tatsächlichen Wertschöpfung liefern.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptgrund, warum einige Menschen sagen, dass die Effizienz von Windkraftanlagen weniger wichtig ist?
-Einige Menschen argumentieren, dass die Effizienz von Windkraftanlagen weniger wichtig ist, weil der Wind kostenlos ist und die Kosten für die Stromerzeugung daher nicht direkt von der Effizienz abhängen.
Was ist der Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) und warum ist er wichtig?
-Der Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) ist eine Methode zur Berechnung der Gesamtkosten der Energieerzeugung über die Lebensdauer eines Generators. Er ist wichtig, weil er verschiedene Faktoren wie Installationskosten, Wartungskosten und Brennstoffkosten kombiniert und so einen Vergleich zwischen verschiedenen Energietechnologien ermöglicht.
Welche Energietechnologie hat laut dem Skript die niedrigsten Anfangsinvestitionskosten für 500 Megawatt Kapazität?
-Laut dem Skript haben Solarpaneele die niedrigsten Anfangsinvestitionskosten für 500 Megawatt Kapazität.
Warum können Solaranlagen trotz niedrigerer Investitionskosten eine höhere Gesamtlebensdauerkosten haben als Kohlekraftwerke?
-Solaranlagen haben eine niedrigere Kapazitätsfaktorrate und eine kürzere Lebensdauer als Kohlekraftwerke, was bedeutet, dass mehr Solaranlagen installiert werden müssen, um die gleiche Gesamtenergiemenge über ihre Lebensdauer zu erzeugen.
Wie beeinflussen Finanzierungskosten den LCOE von Energietechnologien?
-Finanzierungskosten können den LCOE erheblich beeinflussen, da sie die Gesamtkosten eines Projekts verdoppeln können. Erneuerbare Energieprojekte erhalten oft günstigere Finanzierungskonditionen als fossile Brennstoffe, was ihre Kosten weiter senkt.
Welche zusätzlichen Kosten haben fossile Brennstoffe, die erneuerbare Energien nicht haben?
-Fossile Brennstoffe haben zusätzliche Brennstoffkosten, die bei der Berechnung des LCOE berücksichtigt werden müssen. Diese Kosten können je nach Marktpreisen stark schwanken.
Warum sind Betriebs- und Wartungskosten (O&M) bei der Berechnung des LCOE wichtig?
-Betriebs- und Wartungskosten (O&M) sind wichtig, weil sie jährliche Fixkosten darstellen, die unabhängig von der erzeugten Energiemenge anfallen. Diese Kosten müssen zur Berechnung des Gesamtkosten pro Megawattstunde hinzugefügt werden.
Was ist das Value Adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) und wie unterscheidet es sich vom traditionellen LCOE?
-Das Value Adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) berücksichtigt nicht nur die Kosten der Energieerzeugung, sondern auch den Wert der Energie zum Zeitpunkt der Erzeugung. Es reflektiert die Marktpreise und die Verfügbarkeit der Energie und bietet somit eine realistischere Bewertung der Energietechnologien.
Wie beeinflusst die steigende Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien wie Solar und Wind die Energiepreise und -verfügbarkeit?
-Die steigende Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien kann zu einem Überangebot zu bestimmten Zeiten führen, was die Energiepreise senkt oder sogar zu negativen Preisen führt. Dies erhöht den Bedarf an Energiespeichern, um die Versorgungssicherheit zu gewährleisten.
Welche anderen Werte neben den Kosten sollten bei der Auswahl von Energietechnologien berücksichtigt werden?
-Neben den Kosten sollten auch Faktoren wie CO2-Emissionen, Biodiversität, Landschaftsbeeinträchtigung, lokale Arbeitsplätze und gesundheitliche Auswirkungen durch Partikelverschmutzung berücksichtigt werden.
Outlines
🌟 Energiekostenvergleich
Dieses Absatz behandelt die Frage nach der günstigsten Energiequelle, indem es verschiedene Faktoren wie Installationskosten, Betriebsstetigkeit und Wartungskosten vergleicht. Es wird auf die Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) eingegangen, eine Methode, um die Gesamtkosten der Energieproduktion zu berechnen. Der Autor verwendet eine Rennwagen-Metapher, um die LCOE-Formel zu erklären und vergleicht verschiedene Technologien wie Kohle, Gas, Solar und Windenergie. Die Ausgangspositionen basieren auf den Kapitalkosten für 500 Megawatt Nameplate-Kapazität.
🏁 Die Auswirkungen von Kapital- und Finanzierungskosten
In diesem Absatz werden die Auswirkungen von Kapital- und Finanzierungskosten auf die LCOE diskutiert. Es wird betont, dass die Kapitalkosten verdoppelt werden können, wenn man die Kapitalrückgewinnung über 20 Jahre berücksichtigt. Es wird auch darauf hingewiesen, dass erneuerbare Energieprojekte im Vergleich zu Kohleprojekten günstigere Finanzierungsbedingungen erhalten, was die LCOE für Kohle erhöht. Nach dem Einbeziehen dieser Kosten überholt Gas die Solarenergie im Rennen.
💨 Die Rolle von Brennstoffkosten
Der Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Bedeutung der Brennstoffkosten für fossile Brennstoffe im Vergleich zu erneuerbaren Energien, bei denen der 'Brennstoff' kostenlos ist. Es wird erklärt, wie man die Brennstoffkosten in die LCOE-Formel einbezieht und wie die Schwankungen von Brennstoffpreisen, insbesondere für Gas, die LCOE beeinflussen können. Nach dem Einbeziehen dieser Kosten führen Solar- und Windenergie im Rennen, während Kohle und Gas hinterherliegen.
🛠 Betriebs- und Wartungskosten
In diesem Absatz werden die Betriebs- und Wartungskosten (O&M) für verschiedene Energiegeneratoren erörtert. Es wird hervorgehoben, dass Solarenergie die geringsten Kosten in dieser Kategorie hat, gefolgt von Gas, während Wind- und Kohlekraft mehr Wartung erfordern und somit höhere Kosten verursachen. Nach dem Einbeziehen dieser Kosten als letztendlichen LCOE-Bestandteil zeigt sich, dass Solarenergie und Windenergie vor fossilen Brennstoffen liegen.
🔄 Herausforderungen der Energieübergang und Werte
Der letzte Absatz reflektiert über die Herausforderungen des Energieübergangs hinaus über die reinen Kostenaspekte. Es wird betont, dass die Verfügbarkeit von Energie und die Integration von erneuerbaren Energien in das Netz wichtig sind, insbesondere als der Anteil an veränderlichen erneuerbaren Energien zunimmt. Der Begriff des value adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) wird eingeführt, der den Wert der Energie in Abhängigkeit zu ihrer Produktionszeit berücksichtigt. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung anderer Werte wie CO2-Emissionen, Biodiversität, lokale Arbeitsplätze und Gesundheit hingewiesen, die bei der Entscheidung über die bevorzugte Energiequelle berücksichtigt werden sollten.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Energiequelle
💡Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
💡Kohlekraftwerk
💡Gaskraftwerk
💡Solarpanel
💡Windturbine
💡Kapitalkosten
💡Finanzierungskosten
💡Brennstoffkosten
💡Betriebs- und Wartungskosten
💡Energiespeicherung
Highlights
LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) is a standard way to combine various cost factors of energy sources to get a single number for the overall cost of energy.
Utility-scale solar panels are the cheapest in terms of capital cost for 500 megawatts of nameplate capacity.
Coal power plants have the highest capacity factor at 66%, meaning they operate closer to their nameplate capacity more consistently.
Combined cycle gas plants have an average capacity factor of 50%, while peaking gas plants operate at around 10% capacity.
Offshore wind turbines can achieve capacity factors over 50%, though their equipment and other costs are higher compared to onshore wind.
Financing costs can double the capital cost of energy projects, and renewables often attract more favorable financing terms due to being less risky investments.
The fuel cost for coal and gas power plants significantly impacts their LCOE, with recent spikes in gas prices highlighting this volatility.
Solar and wind energy have no fuel costs, giving them an advantage in the LCOE race, especially when fossil fuel prices are high.
Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs vary, with solar having the lowest, followed by gas, and then wind and coal having higher O&M costs.
In 2021, solar comes out as the cheapest energy source according to the LCOE calculation, followed by wind, with fossil fuels trailing behind.
The LCOE does not fully capture the complexity of energy costs, as it doesn't account for the availability of electricity at different times.
Value-adjusted LCOE (VALCOE) considers both the cost and the value of electricity at the time of production, providing a more complete picture.
Gas turbines, despite having a high cost per megawatt hour, are valuable for their ability to generate electricity on demand, especially during peak times.
The rise of energy storage solutions, like batteries, will help balance the supply and demand, smoothing out price fluctuations and enhancing the value of renewable energy.
There are other important values to consider beyond cost, such as CO2 emissions, biodiversity, health impacts, and local job creation.
Transcripts
What do you think is the best energy source? and what I really
mean is what's the cheapest?
So gas power plants are pretty cheap to install,
coal power plants can run fairly constantly,
solar panels don't need much maintenance.
And the huge wind turbines that are popping up in greater
numbers every year are very efficient.
So I make a lot of videos about renewable energy and wind
turbines especially. And I often talk about efficiency and ways
to improve it. And every time I do that, I get dozens of totally
reasonable comments to the effect of "who cares about
efficiency when the wind is literally free." And then the
commenter will suggest that the more relevant topic is the cost
of the generator, or how many you can fit in a certain area,
or which has the lowest maintenance cost, basically,
which is the best and ultimately, which is the
cheapest energy.
So I want to make this video to address all of these concerns.
It isn't actually very useful to compare just one or another of
these factors without considering them all together.
And there is a standard way to combine all of these important
things. And that's by calculating the levelized cost
of energy LCOE. That will give you a single number for the
overall cost of energy. So then you can compare different
technologies with each other. LCOE is calculated using this
equation. And I've actually heard that some people don't
find equations that exciting. So for those few people who don't
find equations, very exciting, I'm going to use a race car
analogy to explain it today.
So this method of analysis was basically invented by Lazard,
and their latest version of the analysis has just come out in
this very exciting report. So we can use their up to date figures
to see how the cost of energy compares for renewables versus
fossil fuels.
Alright, so let's go to the race. We're on our way to the
start line. And we've got coal gas, solar and offshore wind
ready to go and the grid positions will be determined by
how much the generators cost. So let's say 500 megawatts,
including the equipment cost and everything else that you need to
pay to transport, install and connect to the grid. 500
megawatts worth of utility scale solar panels is the cheapest of
the four so it gets pole position. Second is combined
cycle gas closely followed by onshore wind and coal power
comes in most expensive, by a really long way actually at over
$3 billion. So the capital cost for 500 megawatts of nameplate
capacity gives us our starting grid, but the real race hasn't
even started yet, because it's not the capacity that you know,
that we use.
When we get our electricity bills, we don't buy watts, or
kilowatts or megawatts. Those are instantaneous measurements
of power, kind of like how fast water is coming out of the hose.
When we buy electricity, or we buy a megawatt hours on a
household scale kilowatt hours, which is energy, more like how
many buckets of water. So to calculate the cost per megawatt
hour, we need to know how many megawatt hours the generator
will produce over their lifetime. How many buckets of
energy if you like.
To calculate the cost of energy, we need to divide the total
production over the generator's lifetime by its cost. And the
lifetimes typically vary between 20 and 40 years for the
generator types were comparing. if they were running 24/7 at
100% of their nameplate capacity, then you would get 4.4
million megawatt hours each year of their operating lifetime. But
no generator operates that much. solar doesn't work at night or
on cloudy days. Wind turbines don't turn when there's no wind,
coal and gas power plants ramp up and down depending on demand
and all kinds of generator have a little downtime for sheduled
and unexpected maintenance. If we look at the average figures
in the latest LCOE report, we see coal with the highest
capacity factor at 66% and solar with the lowest at 23%. So to
compare those, you would need three times as much solar
capacity as coal to get the same output. And because the coal
plant last longer to 40 years for coal versus 30 for solar,
overall, you'd need about four times as much solar panels to
get the same total amount of energy over their life as one
one coal power plant.
So gas here has a 50% capacity factor, which is average for
combined cycle gas. But peaking gas plants are run with a low
capacity factor - on average about 10%. They only run to
supply demand spikes. The Australian government is
planning to build a new gas peaker in Kurri Kurri. And it's
only expected to have a capacity of 2%. So that means it's
unexpected around on average a total of about one week per
year. And to continue digging in just to fill out the picture.
The average capacity factor given for wind is 38%. That's
for onshore wind, and there is a trend more towards offshore
wind. And this is mostly because you can get really good capacity
factors offshore over 50% is pretty normal there. But that
does come with a trade off that equipment and other costs are
higher offshore.
So combining all this once you factor in lifetime capacity
factor, we get a cost per megawatt hour based purely on
how much the equipment costs and how much electricity it will
produce in its lifetime. So let's go back to the race and we
can see things have changed a lot. Solar is still the
cheapest. But gas is now close behind, followed by wind. And
coal has caught up most of its initial handicap due to having
the highest capacity factor and the longest operating life.
So the race is really heating up. But that's just for the
capital cost. So we need to add everything else. So now we head
to the next corner, which is financing costs: how much it
costs the company to get the money it needs for the project.
Using a weighted cost of capital of 7.7%. Over a 20 year project
lifetime, the capital recovery is going to double the cost. For
longer project lifetimes, it's more. and that assumes all
energy types have access to the same rates. But in reality,
these days we're seeing coal projects having trouble
accessing good finance terms compared to renewables projects.
That's because wind and solar projects are seen as less risky
than coal and they therefore attract more favorable terms. So
you can imagine that building a new coal power plant now with an
expected 40 year lifetime. So if you're a bank that wants to lend
to that project, you need to factor in the chance that in 40
years things will change. And that coal power plant may very
well not be profitable anymore and might not be able to pay
them back.
After we add in financing costs gas has overtaken solar and
snuck into the lead. But can it stay there? Oh, what's this gas
and coal are pulling in for a pitstop they need fuel! but the
wind and sun are free, so they don't need to stop. they're
making up time.
To calculate the fuel cost per megawatt hour, we need to know
the energy content of the fuel and its cost put this into the
LCOE formula, we use the heat rate which is a slightly weird
unit, BTU per kilowatt hour. BTU is British thermal units and BTU
and kilowatt hours are both energy, just in different
systems. There are 3412 kilowatt hours in a BTU so you can divide
the heat rate by that to get the efficienc. the efficiency is
kilowatt hours of heat energy compared to kilowatt hours of
electricity that comes out of the generator. And just to
complicate things even further, the heat rate varies depending
on the quality of the fuel source. So for coal, it's
between about 8,700 12,000 normally, but sometimes can be
lower for very good quality coal. And for combined cycle
gas, it's about 6000 to 7000.
So putting that in terms of efficiency, it's around 28% of
our coal power plant and 50% for combined cycle gas. And if we
just want to compare that to the efficiency of renewable energy
sources, a good wind turbines a little over 50% efficiency and
solar panels somewhere around 20%. But as you guys like to
point out: who really cares? because the wind and the sun
come for free.
For coal and gas, though the fuel cost matters a lot.
Obviously, the price of these commodities goes up and down.
And at the time of recording this, the price of gas in Europe
was through the roof as high as 110 euros per megawatt hour a
few weeks ago, which is about 37 US dollars per million BTU -
more than 10 times its recent average of $3.45. If you add
that cost in and your LCOE for a gas generator, it just becomes
ridiculous. as unfortunately, Europeans are learning the hard
way right now. But let's just assume that will probably
eventually settle down again. So let's use average prices to
estimate how much fuel costs are going to add to the LCOE of gas
and coal power.
So where do we end up after our fossil fuel pitstop coal took a
$24 per megawatt hour hit and gas when you use average prices
$17. By the time gas and coal get back on the race course
solar and wind have gone through. And so now we have
renewables leading the race as they go to the final corner.
The homestretch of our race cars is operations and maintenance.
Each generator type has fixed maintenance cost each year, no
matter how much was generated, which is kind of like how you
still need to change the oil in a petrol car, even if you barely
ever drive it. And those fixed costs include the cost of
leasing land. And then fossil fuels also have a variable
maintenance cost per megawatt hour generated, which is kind of
like replacing the timing belt in a car every, every time you
drive 100,000 kilometers. for O&M in total solar has the
lowest cost by a long way followed by gas. And then wind
has a fair amount of maintenance required, as does coal so their
costs are higher.
And that was the last component of our LCOE calculation for each
technology. So after all that here's the chequered flag. in
2021 Solar comes in the winner followed by wind, then the
fossil fuels are actually a fairway back.
So that is LCOE by way of race car analogy. And I mentioned at
the start that the values for each of these parameters were
taken from Lazard's latest LCOE, which is version 15. That report
gives a range of values for each technology. And we use the high
case in this analysis shown by the pink dots here. You can see
in this chart the contribution that each component of LCOE made
for each technology, and if you want to play around with the
assumptions, then you can head to keynumbers.com And they have
a really good dashboard where you can play around with each
parameter and see the effect that it has including adding a
price on carbon emissions in case you think that there should
be an incentive to, you know, not treat the atmosphere like a
free public sewer.
So when I was doing a bit of sensitivity analysis on the
LCOE, I was a bit surprised actually to see how big of an
influence the financing costs have on the LCRA. And then also
the fuel cost. These two combined are probably the most
unpredictable aspects of the future LCOE. So if we see fuel
costs stay high in the future, and financing costs rising for
fossil fuels compared to renewable energy projects, then
these two things together could really dramatically widen the
growing cost advantage that renewables have over fossil
fuels.
Lazard publish an updated version of the LCA every year
and since 2015 wind and solar have been the cheapest.
in fact by now even the marginal operating costs of operating a
fossil fuel power plant, so that like assumes an older power
plant where they've already paid paid off the cost of the
capital. Even in that case, the marginal cost of fossil fuels is
higher than new build wind and solar in a lot of situations.
So that's it right, wind and solar are the cheapest and getting cheaper, end of story
energy transition solved, yeah?
If renewable energy is the cheapest, then anybody who likes
money should have already stopped building fossil fuel
power plants as soon as renewables got cheaper than
fossil fuels. But that happened six years ago. And we are
gradually using less fossil fuels. But it's certainly not
disappearing completely, yet. Why?
So it is true that wind and solar have won the race for the
cheapest electricity production. But that was pretty much just
the easy part of the energy transition. As we get more and
more variable renewable energy in the grid, that cost of energy
becomes less and less relevant. And we start to have to worry
about the availability more. And so LCOE on its own can only take
us so far, when we compare different energy sources. I used
the analogy earlier - and yeah, I know I've used like really a
lot of analogies in this video - I compared megawatt hours of
electricity to buckets of water. But there's a key flaw with that
analogy. You could put coal in buckets and wait to make
electricity with it when you want. But you can't put like
wind and solar generated electricity in a bucket for
later. you have to use it when it's made.
So super cheap, renewable electricity is great, but only
if you can use it when it's generated. If you want
electricity at night, it can't come from solar on its own. In
that way, it's not 100% relevant how cheap solar has become, it's
not the full story, there's obviously a time of use
component that we need to add to LCOE if we want to get the more
complete picture. And there is a concept to do this. It's called
Value adjusted LCOE VALCOE. And it does that by comparing not
just the cost of the electricity generated, but also its value at
the time of production.
And this chart from the IEA shows how the value of different
energy technologies will change as we increase the proportion of
variable renewable generation up to 50%. So when there's a lot of
solar power in an electricity grid, it all comes on at a
similar time, if you know the solar panels are near each
other, leading to an oversupply at those times, and therefore
lower and sometimes even negative prices. The cost of
that solar energy calculated with LCOE is very low. But the
amount of energy that the solar panel owner can get for that
energy is also low. So the value adjusted LCOE reflects that.
And at the other end of the spectrum, we have gas turbines,
which have a high cost per megawatt hour, but the operators
can choose when to turn them on. So they'll only generate at
times when wholesale prices are fairly high, which might be
because there's not that much wind or solar available, or you
know, maybe a coal power plant exploded or something like that.
So they don't operate all that much. But when they do they get
paid well, so they have a high value adjusted LCOE.
It's worth noting that this infrequent operation also means
that their greenhouse gas emissions are reduced relative
to if they were operating with a high capacity factor. So that's
one reason why I think we'll probably see gas turbines
continue to fill gaps in wind and solar generation well into
the future and you know, then gradually reducing as other
energy storage options come on board like batteries.
And I'm not that worried about it. I'm not that worried about
the emissions from new gas generator like the Australian
Government Kurri Kurri one. If it's only used a tiny bit, then
it will only release a tiny amount of emissions. So it might
be a big waste of public money, but at least it won't have that
much of a climate impact.
So value adjusted LCOE, it adds something, but it's still not
telling the full picture because it projects into the future
based on today's operating environment. In reality, no
one's going to be investing in more solar farms if they're
mainly working during periods where there's negative
electricity prices. But if we continue to see a lot of
negative prices on sunny days, followed by price spikes in the
evenings and that's the basis of this duck curve chart, which
you've probably seen before. If this persists, well then
batteries and other forms of energy storage are gonna start
to look pretty attractive to investors who want to do a
little energy arbitrage.
They'll get paid to charge their batteries on sunny days and then
get paid even more to sell that power back in the evenings. So
the more storage we get online, the less price extremes we'll
see smoothing out that famous duck curve a bit. And meaning
that the real value adjusted LCA when we reach 50%, variable
renewable generation, it will probably look really different
to how it's predicted to now. If you want to hear more about
these kinds of changes in the energy system, then check out
this video I made with renewable energy finance experts, and
podcasters, Laurent and Gerard earlier this year.
And if you want to support the channel to make more videos like
this, then you can join the engineering with Rosie Patreon
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the future of the channel.
I just wanted to pop back in because while I was editing this
video, I could tell that there was a bit of a gap. And I knew I
knew I would get comments telling me that dollars are not
the only value that's relevant here. And I definitely agree
with that.
So I wanted to mention that whilst we've been really focused
on the cost, bringing the cost of renewable energy down over
the last decade, which is a great thing. Obviously, there
are other values that are important. There is also the
value of not emitting co2 into the atmosphere, which I did
mention briefly. But I also just want to add, there's a bunch of
other factors I didn't mention earlier, like biodiversity,
having uninterrupted views, having local jobs, health
impacts from particulate pollution, all of these things,
and many more are relevant to which energy source we choose.
And I don't really think we've done a great job at making
conscious decisions about which of these we value as
communities. And it's something that I hope that's gonna we're
going to get better out over the next decades, I'd really like to
see sensible discussions about the trade offs that we need to
make between all of these factors since you know, no
technology is impact free. and waiting for a perfect energy
technology to come along is just going to guarantee climate
catastrophe because it's just never going to happen.
Anyway, that's pretty off topic, maybe something for another day.
I just want to finish by giving a big thanks to John Poljak, the
founder of key numbers, he did all the calculations for this
analysis. And he also picked up in a draft I showed him what
would have been an embarrassing mistake in one of the figures.
And he was the one who suggested the racing analogy. So thanks,
John, for making this video more interesting and more accurate.
And thanks to you all for watching. I'll see you in the
next video.
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