This Puts Bitcoin At Risk Of Falling Into A Macro Bear Market

Summary

The video examines Bitcoin’s pullback — dipping below $90,000 for the first time since April — and questions whether liquidity expectations and fading greed signal a shift from a bull to a bear market. The presenter reviews historical yearly opens, Fed-rate and QE assumptions, and shows how the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (40 days without greed) can indicate longer-term trends. Key levels to watch include ~70–71k and a potential overbalance target near $107–108k; the speaker suggests an 18-day/$16,300 move would confirm a bullish reversal. Practical advice: follow price structure, sentiment, and overbalance rules to trade whatever trend forms.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin recently fell below $90,000 for the first time since April, marking a significant correction, with the price dropping to around $37,000.
• 😀 The crypto market has experienced 40 days without any signs of greed, which is unusual for bull markets, often indicating a shift in market sentiment.
• 😀 Historically, when Bitcoin’s price tests the opening price of the year (as it has recently done), it signals a bearish market, as seen in past cycles like 2021 and 2022.
• 😀 The bullish narrative around liquidity, driven by stimulus checks and the end of quantitative tightening (QT), has failed to materialize as expected, leading to a major correction.
• 😀 Despite expectations of quantitative easing (QE), history shows that liquidity may not immediately flow into the markets after the end of QT, prolonging market corrections.
• 😀 The fear and greed index has spent 40 days in a fear zone, signaling a potential prolonged bear market, as such sentiment is typically rare in bull markets.
• 😀 Bull markets usually exhibit sentiment swings between fear and greed, but this correction has failed to recover as quickly as usual, which is concerning for a potential long-term bear trend.
• 😀 The fear and greed index shows that during bear markets, the sentiment typically remains in the extreme fear range, with any rallies being short-lived and followed by further declines.
• 😀 For the market to shift back into a bullish trend, the fear and greed index must move into the neutral zone and stay there for an extended period, signaling a recovery in sentiment.
• 😀 A significant bull market rally needs to push past key resistance levels (like the 70k-71k range) and maintain sentiment in the greed zone for it to have lasting power.
• 😀 Past cycles suggest that failed rallies during bear markets are often followed by steep declines, with market sentiment not matching the price action, which results in missed opportunities for many traders.
• 😀 The critical price point to watch is $50k–$55k for Bitcoin, as breaking this level could confirm a prolonged bear market. If Bitcoin fails to stay above this level, the market is likely to stay in a bearish trend until further recovery in late 2026.

Q & A

What does the drop in Bitcoin's price under $90,000 signify in the context of the market?

The drop below $90,000 for Bitcoin marks the first time since April that it has fallen to such a level. This is significant as it signals a shift in market sentiment, indicating that Bitcoin has been in a correction phase for over six months, and the market has not seen greed for at least 40 days.

What does the price action for Bitcoin in 2025 suggest about its market trend?

Bitcoin's price for 2025 is negative, which is an unusual situation in a bull market. Typically, in a bull market, Bitcoin's price should not return to the opening price of the year. A test of the opening price followed by a rally to new all-time highs is the usual pattern, but this has not occurred, signaling potential weakness in the current cycle.

What role did liquidity play in the bullish narrative for Bitcoin?

Liquidity was seen as the driving force behind the bullish market narrative for months. With the end of government shutdowns, stimulus checks, and expectations of quantitative easing (QE), many believed liquidity would push Bitcoin prices higher. However, the assumption that QE would immediately drive prices up has proven incorrect, as liquidity hasn't yet fueled a major market rally.

How does the crypto fear and greed index reflect market sentiment, and what does it indicate about the current state of the market?

The crypto fear and greed index is an important tool to gauge market sentiment. For the past 40 days, the market has been in a state of extreme fear, with no signs of greed. This prolonged period without greed is unusual in a bull market, where sentiment typically fluctuates between fear and greed, signaling opportunities for rallies. The lack of greed could indicate a bear market or a significant correction.

What does a market in extreme fear mean for potential future price action?

Periods of extreme fear are often followed by market corrections, but also present buying opportunities in a bull market. However, when a market remains in extreme fear for an extended period, as it has recently with Bitcoin, it can indicate that the market is entering or already in a bear market, with rallies being short-lived.

How does the price structure from 2021 compare to the current market conditions?

In 2021, Bitcoin showed a weak rally after testing the opening price, which ultimately led to a collapse. This price structure is similar to the current market, where the price has returned to test previous lows, and the rally afterward has not been strong enough to inspire confidence in a sustained bull market.

What is the significance of the 70K-71K price level for Bitcoin's bull market?

The 70K-71K price level is a critical point for Bitcoin's bull market. If Bitcoin can maintain support above this level and rally through it, it could signal the continuation of a bull market. If the price fails to hold this level, it may indicate the transition to a bear market, with a prolonged downtrend.

What impact would a move below 50% of the current price have on Bitcoin's future prospects?

If Bitcoin falls below 50% of its current price, it would suggest a deeper correction, potentially signaling the end of the bull market. In such a scenario, the market would be more likely to experience a bear market, and the outlook for a strong rally would diminish.

What role does the fear and greed index play in predicting market transitions from bull to bear markets?

The fear and greed index plays a key role in identifying sentiment shifts. In a bull market, we typically see a back-and-forth between fear and greed. However, in a bear market, the index tends to stay predominantly in fear, with little time spent in greed. The market is considered to be transitioning from bull to bear if the sentiment remains in fear for an extended period and doesn't move back into greed.

How can overbalance in time and price help predict market trends?

Overbalance in time and price is a concept used to predict whether the market will continue in the same trend or reverse. If the market rallies past previous highs and stays there for a longer period, it may indicate a trend reversal. This is a critical tool for understanding market cycles and identifying whether a rally is sustainable or just a dead-cat bounce.