BULLISH NVIDA EARNINGS. BEARISH STOCK MARKET REACTION.
Summary
TLDRIn the video script, Jason Shapiro from Crowded Market Report discusses the challenging market conditions on Thursday, May 23rd, 2024. Despite Nvidia's strong performance with increased dividends, a stock split, and earnings and revenue beats, the overall market was disappointing. Risk assets like silver and copper suffered, leading to speculation that the market is realizing the Federal Reserve won't cut rates soon. This could impact assets that benefit from lower interest rate expectations. The day might be pivotal, as it could mark a shift in market sentiment regarding recession and rate cuts, similar to a previous influential day that signaled the end of recession fears.
Takeaways
- 📉 The speaker, Jason Shapiro, acknowledges that it's hard to put a positive spin on the market's performance on May 23rd, 2024.
- 🚀 Despite Nvidia delivering on all fronts with a dividend increase, stock split, and beating on earnings and revenue, the overall market performed poorly.
- 🐻 The speaker speculates that the day could potentially be a 'bear trap', a situation where the market dips before rebounding, but it's too early to tell.
- 📊 Risk assets like silver and copper were hit hard, with silver experiencing a significant two-day decline and copper also suffering.
- 💡 The market might be realizing that interest rates won't be cut soon, which could affect assets that have been benefiting from the expectation of lower rates.
- 🤔 There's a Catch-22 situation where asset prices rising reduces the chance of rate cuts, while falling prices might make rate cuts more likely.
- 📈 The speaker mentions that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which many people are heavily invested in, did not wait for Nvidia's positive news and started declining days ago.
- 📉 The Dow Jones experienced a notable drop, with a significant point loss over a few days, which could be a sign of a larger market trend.
- 🔮 The speaker suggests that May 23rd could be an important day in market history, similar to a previous significant day that marked a shift in market sentiment.
- 🤷♂️ There's uncertainty about whether the current market situation is just a temporary dip or the start of a more significant downturn.
- 👀 The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market's reaction to see if this day turns out to be a pivotal one in the market's trajectory.
Q & A
What is the date mentioned in the video script?
-Thursday, May 23rd, 2024.
Who is the speaker in the video script?
-Jason Shapiro.
What company is Jason Shapiro discussing in the context of the stock market?
-Nvidia.
What positive actions did Nvidia take according to the script?
-Nvidia increased dividends, performed a stock split, beat on earnings, and exceeded revenue expectations.
What is the general sentiment of the stock market according to Jason Shapiro's analysis?
-The stock market is performing poorly, with the exception of Nvidia.
What is a 'bear trap' in the context of the stock market?
-A bear trap is a situation where the market appears to be in a downtrend, but then reverses and moves higher, often trapping those who sold or shorted the market.
Which assets are mentioned as being affected by the market's performance?
-Silver, copper, and gold are mentioned as assets that have been hit hard.
What is the potential implication of the market's performance on interest rates according to the script?
-The market might be realizing that the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest rates soon, which could affect assets that benefit from lower interest rates.
What is the 'Catch 22' situation Jason Shapiro refers to in the context of interest rates and asset prices?
-The 'Catch 22' situation refers to the dilemma where asset prices going up reduce the chance of rate cuts, while asset prices going down might increase the chance of rate cuts.
What significant event in the past did Jason Shapiro mention as a possible turning point for the market?
-A powerful day a couple of months ago when the market decided that there would be no more recession and that everything was going to move forward.
What is the potential significance of the current day's market performance according to Jason Shapiro?
-The current day could be an important day that marks a change in the market's direction, possibly becoming a 'trigger day' similar to the significant day mentioned a few months ago.
What is the performance of the Dow compared to the NASDAQ as mentioned in the script?
-The Dow, which many people are long on, did not wait for Nvidia's announcement and has been down for a couple of days, while the NASDAQ made new highs right into the Nvidia announcement before reversing.
What is the potential outcome Jason Shapiro is considering for the market after the current day's performance?
-He is considering the possibility that the market might have entered a bear trap, or that it might be a significant turning point leading to new highs or further declines.
Outlines
📉 Dismal Market Performance Despite Nvidia's Success
In this paragraph, Jason Shapiro from Crowded Market Report addresses the challenging market conditions on Thursday, May 23rd, 2024. Despite Nvidia's positive earnings report, which included a dividend increase, stock split, and exceeding expectations on earnings and revenue, the overall market performed poorly. Jason speculates whether this could be a bear trap, a situation where the market drops sharply but then recovers, which is a common occurrence. He also discusses the impact on other risk assets like silver and copper, which have been hit hard recently, suggesting that the market may be starting to realize that interest rates are not likely to be cut soon. This could spell trouble for assets that have been benefiting from the expectation of lower interest rates, such as metals and the stock market. Jason also mentions the potential significance of this day in the market's trajectory, comparing it to a previous pivotal day that marked a shift in market sentiment regarding the recession.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bear Trap
💡Nvidia
💡Stock Market
💡Earnings
💡Revenue
💡Interest Rates
💡Risk Assets
💡Overbought
💡Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow)
💡NASDAQ
💡Recession
Highlights
Today is a difficult day to put a positive spin on the stock market's performance.
Nvidia performed exceptionally well with a dividend increase, stock split, and beating on earnings and revenue.
Despite Nvidia's good performance, the overall market was not favorable.
The possibility of a bear trap in the stock market is mentioned, suggesting a potential market recovery.
Risk assets like silver and copper have been hit hard recently.
Silver experienced a significant two-day decline.
There is speculation that the market is starting to realize that interest rates will not be cut soon.
Assets that benefit from lower interest rates, such as metals and the stock market, may face challenges.
The market is in a Catch 22 situation regarding interest rates and asset performance.
The speaker suggests that today might be an important day in the market's trajectory.
A comparison is made to a previous significant market day that changed investor sentiment.
NASDAQ made new highs but then experienced a reversal on the day of Nvidia's announcement.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average did not wait for Nvidia's announcement and started declining days prior.
The Dow Jones experienced a significant drop, suggesting potential market instability.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of today's market performance and its potential impact.
A closing remark expressing hope for the well-being of listeners and a promise to provide further updates.
Transcripts
hello today is Thursday May 23rd 2024
I'm Jason shapir with crowded
marketreport
domcom so today very hard to put a
positive spin on anything that happened
today okay
um I've been talking for a few weeks
about the fact that I don't wouldn't
want to short the stock market pre
Nvidia okay Nvidia came out gave you
everything you wanted dividend
increase stock split beat on earnings
beat on Revenue increased
uh uh what they think's going to happen
next quarter and all that and Nvidia did
just fine um but the rest of the market
was complete crap okay so um it's really
tough to put a positive spin on that now
could it be a bear trap of course it
could be a bear trap we see bear traps
all the time the stock market this could
be another one um you can't call it a
bear trap now but it's only in
retrospect that we know but um just not
a good day you know in anything and the
other risk assets um which I've been
pointing out are very crowd obviously
like silver I mean got hit pretty badly
two days in a row now copper you know
also and yesterday when these things got
hit um look at Silver you know the
two-day move is pretty bad bad copper
you know yesterday when these things got
hit I heard a lot of people say oh it
was just a one day thing to work off
some overbought stuff well it tried to
rebound a little bit and it just failed
things could closed pretty much on lows
gold got hit so I think that today may
be something that we're going to look
back on and say this was the
day when the market finally started to
realize that the fit ain't cutting rates
anytime soon um and assets that are
benefiting from the thought process that
interest rates would be
lower um like the metals like the stock
market
um could have trouble going forward
because if the market starts to conclude
definitively that they the next move
might be up um then I think these assets
are going to have a problem and and it's
funny because obviously the more these
assets go up the less chance they can
cut rates if the more they go down then
they maybe could cut rates so we're back
in that sort of Catch 22 situation but
we're a long way from at that point of
where they could cut rates cuz assets
have come down because assets have down
for one day right so I don't think we're
there yet
um hard to make a an argument today that
there was anything that good that went
on and it's possible today was an
important day you know there was an
important day a couple months ago that I
mentioned a few times about it was a
powerful day and it became the day I
thought that everybody decided
that
um no more recession and it's it's all
sort of systems going and that was
somewhere in here right um and now I
think today might be another one of
these trigger days that actually where
things might have changed a little bit
so let's see if that's true let's see if
this ends up just being a big bear trap
again and tomorrow it just rips and we
make new highs again we'll see but you
know it's interesting because even in
light of the fact of saying okay don't
short stocks until in
you know comes out well the NASDAQ did
in fact make new highs right into the
Nvidia announcement and then had this
reversal day today but the Dow which is
where people are most long because
they're chasing as I've spoken about
before Industrials and energy and and
all that stuff the Dow didn't wait for
NVIDIA the da was off a
ties already um two days ago 3 days ago
and then today it just kind of had a
collapse a thousand thousand points off
at time now in what 4 days not a ton but
it's a couple percent you know th000
points on 40,000 you know is what 2 and
a half% in a few days um it's a
start might also be the end we don't
know we'll see but anyway that's kind of
my thoughts um on today and I wanted to
put this out there because I think it
the potential for being a important day
is definitely there all right hope
everybody's doing doing okay and uh we
will talk again soon thank you
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