BITCOIN: THE CYCLE-ENDING SIGNAL WE WANT IS UNFOLDING

Summary

This video provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s market trends and technical levels, including key resistance points, the impact of USDT dominance, and the potential for price movement in the coming months. The speaker highlights the importance of the '3-day rule' for trend analysis, suggesting Bitcoin could face short-term consolidation but remains in a strong long-term position. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP show relative strength and may outperform Bitcoin in the short run. Viewers are advised to follow chart patterns and ignore seasonal biases in market narratives.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin's key resistance levels are at $100K and $102,500, with a recent rejection at $100K on December 21st and 26th. Short-term stability could lead to a retest of these levels.
• 😀 The 3-day rule is a powerful tool for predicting price action. Bitcoin is currently in the longest correction since breaking out from $74K, suggesting potential for future gains.
• 😀 A break above $100K with strong exchange volume would signal bullish strength for Bitcoin, while a lack of volume could lead to a shakier move upwards.
• 😀 If Bitcoin fails to break through $100K, it may retest the $91K support level, with stronger support found at $85K-$87K.
• 😀 USDT dominance (Tether's market share) has been rejected at the 50% level, which could indicate a potential decrease in dominance and a shift of capital back into Bitcoin and other altcoins.
• 😀 Ethereum (ETH) is showing relative strength with solid support at $3,300. A close above $3,500 would position ETH for potential upward movement, with $3,600 as a key breakout level.
• 😀 Solana (SOL) has successfully broken past the $202 resistance and is in a strong uptrend. The next key resistance levels to watch are $211 and $230.
• 😀 XRP is currently consolidating around the $2.40 mark, with key support at $1.90. If it drops further, $1.70 is a reasonable target before a potential rebound.
• 😀 Patience is key in this market. While Q1 may historically be green, it's essential to follow the current trend rather than relying on narratives or expectations.
• 😀 Bitcoin remains in a strong position above its previous top of $73K-$74K, suggesting continued potential for growth in the coming months, even if it takes time to play out.
• 😀 The altcoins (Ethereum, Solana, XRP) are in strong positions and could outperform Bitcoin if the broader market breaks higher, especially if they maintain key support levels.

Q & A

What is the significance of the $100,000 to $102,500 resistance level for Bitcoin?

The $100,000 to $102,500 resistance level is a critical point for Bitcoin's price movement. Bitcoin has been rejected at this level twice in December (21st and 26th), and its ability to break and hold above this range could signal further bullish momentum. A consolidation above this level would be a sign of strength for Bitcoin to potentially target the $108K range.

What does the '3-day rule' refer to in Bitcoin technical analysis?

The '3-day rule' refers to tracking the closing price of Bitcoin on a 3-day chart. The rule suggests that if Bitcoin closes consistently above a certain level over three days, it can signal bullish strength, while prolonged periods below a key level can indicate a correction. This technique helps in identifying trends and potential reversals.

Why is it important to focus on the charts and not external narratives like 'quarter 1 must be green'?

Focusing on the charts is important because they reflect the actual market conditions and price action. External narratives, like the belief that 'quarter 1 must be green', are speculative and may not align with the reality of market trends. By adhering to technical analysis, traders can make more informed decisions based on data rather than assumptions.

What are the key support levels for Bitcoin in this correction phase?

Bitcoin's key support levels during this correction phase are around $91,000 and $85,000 to $87,000. If Bitcoin fails to maintain these levels, it could signal further downside, but if it holds and consolidates above them, it could be in a strong position for a potential rally.

How does the dominance of USDT (Tether) impact Bitcoin and altcoins?

The dominance of USDT (Tether) plays a key role in the flow of capital between Bitcoin and altcoins. When USDT dominance decreases, it generally means that more money is flowing into Bitcoin and altcoins, which could fuel bullish trends. Conversely, an increase in USDT dominance often signals that capital is being moved out of altcoins and Bitcoin, potentially leading to price stagnation or declines.

What is the current status of Ethereum (ETH) in terms of its price support and potential for growth?

Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong support around $3,300, with higher lows forming. If ETH remains above $3,500, it is likely to remain in a strong position for future price appreciation. A close above $3,600 would be a bullish signal for ETH, potentially paving the way for further gains.

What is the outlook for Solana (SOL) and its potential price movement?

Solana (SOL) has shown strong performance after breaking the $202 level, and it has continued to form higher highs and higher lows. The next key resistance level is at $211, and if SOL surpasses this, it may aim for $230. Solana is in a strong position as it has not broken below previous lows and continues to consolidate at higher levels.

How is XRP performing in the market, and what are the critical price levels to watch?

XRP is consolidating around the $240 level, which is a significant 50% retracement level. The price is still above the $190 support level, but if it breaks below that, it could test the $170 range. However, if XRP manages to hold above $240, it may see upward movement in line with broader market trends.

What is the significance of the $91,000 and $85,000 support levels for Bitcoin in terms of market behavior?

The $91,000 and $85,000 levels are critical support zones for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin falls below these levels, it may signal a further downtrend or deeper correction. However, if Bitcoin holds above these levels and continues to form higher lows, it would indicate a strong foundation for a potential rally in the future.

What are the expectations for Bitcoin's price movement in the next few months, and when might we see a breakout?

The expectation is that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate for the next few months, with potential movements upward into February or March. As long as Bitcoin remains above its key support levels (like $73K–$74K), the market is expected to maintain a strong position. The breakout could occur in the coming months, particularly as Bitcoin approaches key resistance zones.