China miscounted its population, now the economy is in crisis | If You're Listening

Summary

This video explores the long-term consequences of China's one-child policy, implemented to curb population growth. While successful in reducing births, it led to a shrinking workforce and an aging population. The policy's fallout is evident in the country's property market, where a surplus of unsold apartments now threatens the economy. With fewer births and an economic slowdown, China faces a demographic crisis, exacerbating global challenges like declining demand for materials such as iron ore. The video delves into how these factors are reshaping China’s future and its economic standing.

Takeaways

• 😀 Thousands of people in Kunming gathered to witness the demolition of 15 high-rise buildings, a symbol of China's growing real estate crisis.
• 😀 China's property market is in a severe downturn, driven by a demographic shift and the collapse of overleveraged property developers.
• 😀 The One-Child Policy, implemented in 1979, drastically reduced China's birthrate and has led to a shrinking workforce and an aging population.
• 😀 The policy’s initial goal was to control population growth, but it has resulted in a demographic crisis with fewer young people entering the workforce.
• 😀 China's real estate industry, once booming, is now facing massive debt due to the overproduction of apartments that there aren’t enough people to fill.
• 😀 The country’s property market is overbuilt, with many apartments vacant, as there are fewer people to buy them due to declining population growth.
• 😀 In the 1980s and 1990s, China’s population skewed male due to a preference for sons, leading to millions of bachelors and an imbalanced gender ratio.
• 😀 The Chinese government realized the dangers of its population policies by 2010, recognizing that a shrinking working-age population would soon lead to economic stagnation.
• 😀 By 2016, China experienced a brief rise in birth rates after relaxing the One-Child Policy, but the increase was short-lived due to high living costs and economic pressures.
• 😀 The One-Child Policy’s unintended consequences are felt across sectors, from real estate to labor shortages, and are now contributing to China's economic slowdown.

Q & A

What was the significance of the demolition of 15 high-rise buildings in Kunming?

The demolition of the 15 high-rise buildings in Kunming symbolized the larger issue of China's overbuilding in the real estate sector. These buildings had remained unfinished for seven years due to the bankruptcy of the developer, representing the collapse of an unsustainable property boom in China.

Why is China's real estate boom considered unsustainable?

China's real estate boom is considered unsustainable because of a combination of factors: a large number of vacant apartments, rising property prices, and developers' excessive debt. Additionally, the country is facing a declining population and birth rate, meaning fewer people are available to live in these properties.

How did China's one-child policy contribute to the current demographic and economic challenges?

The one-child policy, which was introduced in the late 1970s to control population growth, resulted in a generation of only children. As these individuals grow older, China is facing an aging population, leading to a shrinking workforce and a higher economic dependency ratio. The policy also skewed the gender balance, contributing to social and economic issues.

What was David Attenborough's role in revealing China's one-child policy?

David Attenborough played a key role in revealing China's one-child policy during a televised meeting with Deng Xiaoping in 1979. Attenborough asked China’s leader about population control, and Deng confirmed the policy, making it one of the first public acknowledgments of the policy.

What were the consequences of the one-child policy in terms of family dynamics?

The one-child policy led to a generation of 'little emperors,' as single children grew up without siblings. This also resulted in a skewed male-to-female ratio due to sex-selective practices, which have left millions of Chinese men struggling to find marriage partners. This demographic imbalance has had far-reaching social and economic effects.

Why did the Chinese government initially implement the one-child policy?

The one-child policy was implemented to control China's rapidly growing population, which was seen as a threat to the country’s development. The government sought to curb population growth to improve economic productivity and prevent social and environmental strains.

How did the Chinese government manage the enforcement of the one-child policy?

The Chinese government enforced the one-child policy through strict regulations, including mandatory marriage age, birth permits, and monitoring citizens' reproductive status. Penalties for breaking the rules included loss of work permits, housing restrictions, and forced sterilizations.

How did the Chinese government attempt to reverse the one-child policy in recent years?

In 2013, the Chinese government began relaxing the one-child policy by allowing couples to have a second child if either parent was an only child. Eventually, in 2016, the policy was fully abolished, but this did not result in a significant increase in birth rates, as many couples cited financial and housing constraints.

What impact did China's declining birth rate have on the property sector?

China's declining birth rate has led to fewer young people entering the workforce and buying homes. As a result, developers who had been building for an imagined future population now face an oversupply of properties with few buyers, leading to financial instability and a crisis in the property sector.

How does the collapse of China's property sector impact the global economy?

The collapse of China's property sector has global ramifications, particularly for countries like Australia that rely on exports of materials such as iron ore. As property development slows, demand for building materials drops, causing a decline in iron ore prices and potentially affecting economies that depend on these exports.