Partitioning Syria. HTS is a shadow

Summary

In this video, Alexander discusses the ongoing collapse of Syria, with various foreign powers carving up the country. Israel is extending its control over the Golan Heights, Turkey is fighting Kurdish forces in the north, and HTS is forming a shadow government without real military strength. The US, under Blinken, is attempting to navigate these complex tensions, but there's little hope for meaningful progress. The future of Damascus looks bleak, with the city potentially becoming a no-man’s land amidst a tragic breakdown of state institutions and escalating regional conflicts.

Takeaways

• 😀 Syria has collapsed, with no functioning government, police force, or state institutions.
• 🇮🇱 Israel has seized significant land in Syria, including the Golan Heights, and is likely to announce formal annexation soon.
• 🇹🇷 Turkey controls much of northern Syria, focusing on eliminating Kurdish forces backed by the U.S.
• 🇺🇸 The U.S. is maintaining support for Kurdish forces in Syria, despite the ongoing conflict with Turkey.
• 💥 The situation in Syria is described as a 'progressive collapse' of state institutions, leading to widespread chaos.
• 🏴 HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) has declared an interim government, but lacks the military power to confront foreign forces in the region.
• 🌍 The U.S., Turkey, Russia, and Israel are all establishing their own spheres of influence in Syria, further fragmenting the country.
• 💔 The conflict in Syria has led to the destruction of state structures, with widespread looting and the release of prisoners, including violent criminals.
• 💡 Blinken's visit to Turkey aims to address tensions between Turkish forces and U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, but his influence is in doubt.
• 🤔 Despite the rhetoric, any potential agreements or resolutions during Blinken's meeting with Turkish officials are unlikely to lead to significant change.
• 🌐 Syria's sovereignty has effectively been lost as foreign powers control key territories, and the country is now divided into regions of foreign influence.

Q & A

What is the current situation in Syria according to the transcript?

The situation in Syria is described as a collapse, with the country experiencing the breakdown of state institutions, disintegrating governance, and the partitioning of territory among foreign powers like Israel, Turkey, the U.S., and Russia.

Why is HTS not engaging in conflict with major powers such as Israel, the U.S., or Turkey?

HTS is described as lacking the military strength to engage with these powers. The group is seen as more of a shadow organization, with no real force to challenge the foreign powers operating in Syria.

How are foreign powers influencing Syria's current situation?

Foreign powers, including Israel, Turkey, the U.S., and Russia, are carving up Syria into spheres of influence. The U.S. is backing Kurdish forces, Turkey is focused on suppressing them, and Israel is expanding its control over the Golan Heights, with Russia reinforcing its military presence in the country.

What is the fate of Damascus as mentioned in the transcript?

Damascus is expected to become a no-man's land, potentially falling under the control of warlords. The city, once the capital of Syria, is likely to experience significant destruction, including the looting of its museums and archaeological sites.

What role does Blinken play in the current diplomacy over Syria?

Blinken is attempting to negotiate with Turkey regarding the situation in Syria, but his efforts are seen as ineffective. His diplomatic approach is unlikely to lead to any meaningful agreements due to the complexity of the situation and his perceived lack of competence.

Why is the Kurdish issue so critical for Turkey in Syria?

The Kurdish issue is existential for Turkey, as it fears the empowerment of Kurdish forces in Syria could lead to further separatist movements within its own borders. Erdogan has repeatedly stated that preventing Kurdish autonomy in Syria is a red line for Turkey.

How is the U.S. managing its involvement with the Kurdish forces in Syria?

The U.S. is trying to support Kurdish forces in Syria but is caught between its alliance with the Kurds and Turkey's strong opposition to them. The U.S. aims to prevent the Kurds from being pushed out of key areas while maintaining its strategic relationship with Turkey.

What does the transcript suggest about Blinken's upcoming meeting with Turkish officials?

The transcript suggests that Blinken's meeting with Turkish officials is unlikely to produce any substantial results. It implies that Blinken is not seen as a strong negotiator, and the talks may revolve around vague declarations rather than concrete agreements.

What are the prospects for a Kurdish state in Syria?

The transcript suggests that the U.S. cannot push for a Kurdish state in Syria due to Turkey’s opposition, which would cross Erdogan's red lines. Any such move would be highly contentious and unfeasible under the current geopolitical conditions.

What is the current state of the Syrian military and its impact on the situation?

The Syrian military is described as fragmented, with a lack of centralized control. The U.S. is reportedly trying to acquire military material from Syria's army to send to Ukraine, but the collapse of Syria's state institutions has made the military ineffective, and local factions are no longer able to maintain control.