Eurasia Group's Bremmer on US-China Relations, Israel
Summary
TLDRIan Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, emphasizing that these issues are not new and are influenced by U.S. election politics. He highlights China's attempts to attract foreign investment despite economic struggles. Bremmer also addresses the close relationship between China and Russia, expressing greater concern over Russia's ties with North Korea and Iran. Additionally, the discussion touches on U.S. domestic politics, focusing on a recent bill to support Israel militarily, and the challenges President Biden faces in balancing international relations and domestic opinions, particularly among young voters.
Takeaways
- 😟 The U.S. has been raising tariffs on China for several administrations, indicating ongoing trade tensions.
- 👥 Despite the tariffs, China continues to engage with American CEOs to prevent capital flight and maintain foreign investment.
- 🏛️ The upcoming U.S. election is influencing President Biden's stance on China, with significant tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports.
- 🌐 Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, pledging cooperation against U.S. containment efforts.
- 💣 Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran are more concerning due to weapons and technology exchanges.
- 🇨🇳 The China-Russia relationship remains limited, with no significant progress on financial transactions or energy projects.
- 🇮🇱 The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to expedite weapon shipments to Israel, facing opposition in the Senate.
- 🔫 Senator Lindsey Graham criticized delays in weapon shipments to Israel, emphasizing their necessity for precision attacks.
- 🤔 President Biden faces pressure from both Republicans and Democrats over his stance on Israel, affecting his political position.
- 🎓 Columbia University graduation was marked by student protests supporting Palestinians, reflecting broader societal conflicts.
Q & A
What is Ian Bremmer's opinion on whether the situation with China and the U.S. marks the beginning of a trade war?
-Ian Bremmer does not consider it the beginning of a trade war, noting that the U.S. has been raising tariffs on China for several administrations and that there is still significant engagement between the two countries.
Why are Chinese leaders engaging in a 'charm offensive' with American CEOs?
-Chinese leaders are engaging in a 'charm offensive' with American CEOs because their economy is underperforming, and they want to avoid chasing away foreign direct investment and prevent more capital flight.
How has the upcoming U.S. election influenced Biden's stance on tariffs against China?
-The upcoming U.S. election has influenced Biden to respond to political pressure to be tougher on China by implementing tariffs, including 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports to the U.S.
What concerns does Ian Bremmer express about the relationship between Russia, North Korea, and Iran?
-Ian Bremmer is more worried about Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran, as these countries are supplying Russia with weapons and technology in return for support, making them significant 'chaos actors' on the global stage.
Did the recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin result in significant policy breakthroughs?
-No, Ian Bremmer did not see any significant policy breakthroughs from the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, particularly in areas like financial transactions or the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
What bill did the U.S. House of Representatives recently pass concerning military support to Israel?
-The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill to stop the Biden administration from delaying weapon shipments to Israel and compelling the administration to provide weapon support to Israel.
What is Senator Lindsey Graham's stance on the delayed weapons shipments to Israel?
-Senator Lindsey Graham supports delivering the delayed weapons to Israel, emphasizing that the bombs are necessary to target tunnels used by militants.
Why is Biden facing pressure regarding his stance on the Israeli conflict?
-Biden is facing pressure because the Israeli conflict has lasted longer than expected, and he is losing support from both Republicans and centrist Democrats for trying to pressure Israel, as well as from left-wing Democrats for being too supportive of Israel.
What specific challenges did Ian Bremmer face when speaking at Columbia University amidst the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
-Ian Bremmer faced a challenging context with significant student solidarity for Palestinians, including flags and calls for divestment, but noted that students were willing to listen and engage respectfully during his speech.
How does Ian Bremmer describe the students' stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at Columbia University?
-Ian Bremmer describes the students as young people who feel that Palestinians are dispossessed and want to do something about it. He emphasizes that students are not supporting Hamas but are concerned about social justice issues.
Outlines
📈 Ongoing Trade Tensions with China
Ian Bremmer discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, noting that increased tariffs have been a longstanding issue across multiple administrations. Despite China's economic challenges and its efforts to attract foreign investment, the U.S. continues to push for tougher measures, especially in light of political pressures during election time. Bremmer also highlights the substantial tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports as a response to domestic demands for a firmer stance on China.
🤝 China's Diplomatic Moves with Russia
Kailey Leinz and Ian Bremmer analyze the implications of the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the meeting featured warm rhetoric and criticism of the U.S., Bremmer points out that there were no significant breakthroughs in financial transactions or infrastructure projects between the two countries. He expresses greater concern over Putin's alliances with North Korea and Iran, noting the exchange of weapons and technology among these nations and their shared interest in undermining U.S. global influence.
🇮🇱 U.S. Military Support to Israel
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to expedite weapon shipments to Israel, despite some Democratic opposition and the expectation that the bill won't pass the Senate. Ian Bremmer explains that the prolonged conflict in Israel has led to shifting messages from the Israeli government, putting pressure on President Biden. Biden faces criticism from both Republicans and Democrats, with calls for greater humanitarian aid for Palestinians clashing with the Israeli Prime Minister's resistance.
📊 Domestic Political Challenges for Biden
Ian Bremmer discusses the domestic political challenges President Biden faces due to his stance on Israel. Biden's support for Israel has led to discontent among young voters and protests on college campuses. Bremmer shares his experience speaking at Columbia University, noting the strong emotions and solidarity with Palestinians among students. He emphasizes the importance of honest and authentic engagement with young people, acknowledging their desire to address perceived injustices while maintaining a respectful dialogue.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Trade War
💡Tariffs
💡Foreign Direct Investment
💡Capital Flight
💡Charm Offensive
💡Election
💡North Korea and Iran
💡Sanctions
💡Humanitarian Aid
💡Two-State Solution
Highlights
Ian Bremmer discusses the long-standing trade tensions between the US and China, noting that raising tariffs has been a practice across multiple administrations.
Despite the political tensions, China is actively engaging in a charm offensive with American CEOs to attract foreign direct investment and prevent capital flight.
President Biden is responding to political pressures by implementing $18 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicle exports to the US.
Bremmer expresses more concern about Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran, highlighting the weapons and technology exchanges that support Russia's efforts in Ukraine.
The relationship between China and Russia is described as warm but limited, with no significant progress on financial transactions or infrastructure projects during Putin's visit to China.
Both China and Russia criticized the US for undermining strategic stability and imposing unilateral coercive measures, but no concrete policy breakthroughs were achieved at the summit.
The US House of Representatives passed a bill to stop the Biden administration from delaying weapon shipments to Israel, indicating bipartisan pressure for increased military support.
Senator Lindsey Graham criticizes the administration for not delivering necessary weapons to Israel, emphasizing the need for precision-guided bombs to target tunnels.
Bremmer notes the ongoing war between Israel and its adversaries, highlighting the pressure on President Biden from both Republicans and Democrats regarding US support for Israel.
The political landscape in the US is complicated by the conflict, with young voters and college campuses expressing strong opinions on the administration's policies toward Israel.
Bremmer describes his experience speaking at Columbia University's graduation, where students showed solidarity with Palestinians but remained respectful during his speech.
The graduation ceremony at Columbia University saw a significant number of students wearing Palestinian flags and calling for divestment, reflecting strong passions on campus.
Despite the protests, Bremmer observed that students were willing to listen and engage during his speech, emphasizing the importance of respecting and challenging students' views.
Bremmer emphasizes the need for honesty and authenticity when addressing students, sharing personal failings to build trust and willingness to engage.
He concludes that respecting and listening to students is essential for effective communication and challenging their perspectives, particularly in a politically charged environment.
Transcripts
AND MORE, EURASIA GROUP AND G0 FOUNDER JOE: --IAN BREMMER.
IS IT THE BEGINNING OF A TRADE WAR OR NOT?
>> OH NO. FIRST OF ALL, YOU WOULD HARDLY
CALL IT THE BEGINNING SINCE WE HAVE BEEN RAISING TARIFFS ON
CHINA FOR A COUPLE OF ADMINISTRATIONS.
ALSO BECAUSE THERE IS STILL AN AWFUL LOT OF ENGAGEMENT AND THE
CHINESE ARE STILL ENGAGED IN A CHARM OFFENSIVE WITH AMERICAN
CEOS, CEOS FROM AROUND THE WORLD BECAUSE THEIR ECONOMY IS
UNDERPERFORMING AND THEY DON'T WANT TO CHASE AWAY FOREIGN
DIRECT INVESTMENT, WHICH IS NOT DOING WELL.
THEY DON'T WANT TO SEE MORE CAPITAL FLIGHT.
HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT, IT IS AN ELECTION TIME IN THE UNITED
STATES. AND BIDEN HAS CLEARLY RESPONDED
TO THE FACT A LOT OF PEOPLE, NOT JUST SENATOR JONI ERNST,
WANT THE AMERICANS TO BE TOUGHER ON CHINA AND $18
BILLION OF TARIFFS , INCLUDING 100% TARIFFS ON CHINESE
ELECTRIC VEHICLE EXPORTS TO THE U.S., WILL HELP TO RESPOND TO
THAT POLITICAL DEMAND. KAILEY: YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN ON THE
IDEA THAT BEIJING HAS BEEN PLAYING HOST TO MANY IN
CORPORATE AMERICA. ALSO THIS WEEK, PRESIDENT XI
JINPING IS PLAYING HOST TO RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR
PUTIN AS HE MAKES A TRIP TO CHINA. PLEDGING TO INTENSIFY
COOPERATION AGAINST U.S. QUOTE UNQUOTE CONTAINMENT OF
THEIR COUNTRIES. HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT
HOW CLOSE THESE TWO ARE GETTING? >> I'M MORE WORRIED ABOUT
PUTIN'S RELATIONSHIP, WHICH TRULY IS A FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT
LIMITS WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN.
HE'S GETTING A LOT OF WEAPONS FROM THEM HE'S USING AGAINST
NATO WEAPONS A UKRAINE. AND HE'S GIVING THEM A LOT OF
TECHNOLOGY. THESE ARE COUNTRIES THAT ARE
TRULY CHAOS ACTORS, ROGUES. THEY WANT THE U.S.
TO FAIL ON THE GLOBAL STAGE. THE CHINA RELATIONSHIP WITH
RUSSIA IS WARM AND IT IS GETTING A LITTLE FRIENDLIER.
BUT THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT LIMITS.
ON THIS TRIP I DID NOT SEE ANY PROGRESS ON THE DISRUPTION OF
FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN RUSSIAN EXPORTERS AND CHINESE
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS BECAUSE THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO
AVOID THOSE AMERICAN SANCTIONS. I DID NOT SEE ANY PROGRESS ON
THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE POWER I'VE SAID.
-- SIBERIA TWO POWER GAS LINE. THEY HAVE BEEN DRAGGING THEIR
FEET ON IT. THERE WAS A LOT OF VERY WARM
RHETORIC BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES AND THEY BOTH
CRITICIZED THE UNITED STATES AS A COUNTRY THAT IS TRYING TO
UNDERMINE STRATEGIC STABILITY AND CONFISCATE FOREIGN ASSETS
AND PROPERTY AND PUT UNILATERAL COERCIVE MEASURES ON EXPORT
CONTROLS, DIRECTING TRADE BARRIERS.
ALL OF THAT STUFF WAS -- IT SOUNDS GOOD FROM THE RUSSIAN
AND CHINESE PERSPECTIVE, BUT IF YOU HAD BEEN EXPECTING THAT
THERE WAS GOING TO BE A CONCRETE POLICY BREAKTHROUGH,
WATER THE DELIVERABLES THAT CAME FROM THIS SUMMIT?
I DON'T SEE ANY DELIVERABLES. JOE:
A POINT IN YOUR EXPERTISE TO AMERICA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH
ISRAEL. WITH A NEW WRINKLE TODAY, THE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ACTUALLY PUSHED THROUGH A BILL,
AS WAS EXPECTED, THAT WOULD STOP THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION
DELAYING WEAPON SHIPMENTS ONE COMPELLING THE ADMINISTRATION
TO PROVIDE WEAPON SUPPORT TO ISRAEL.
14 DEMOCRATS SPLIT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE TO VOTE FOR THIS.
WE ARE HEARING THIS WON'T SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY IN THE SENATE.
BUT A LOT OF SENATORS ARE UPSET ABOUT IT, INCLUDING LINDSEY
GRAHAM FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. HE SAID THIS EARLIER ON CAPITOL
HILL ABOUT THE ARMS SHIPMENT TO ISRAEL THE ADMINISTRATION PUT
ON HOLD.
>> THERE IS CHARGES OF WEAPONS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN DELIVERED
THAT NEED TO BE DELIVERED.
THE 2000 POUND BOMBS ARE NECESSARY TO HIT TUNNELS THAT
THE COWARDS ARE HIDING IN. THEY ARE DEEP IN THE GROUND,
THEY NEED THESE BOMBS THAT WILL BE PRECISION GUIDED WITHIN A 10
FOOT RADIUS TO GO DOWN AND GET THE TUNNELS.
GIVE THEM THE BOMBS. JOE: IS LINDSEY GRAHAM RIGHT?
>> THE ISRAELIS WERE TELLING THE UNITED STATES THIS WAR WAS
GOING TO BE OVER IN A MATTER OF A COUPLE OF MONTHS AT THE
BEGINNING. IT HAS BEEN SEVEN MONTHS AND
THEY ARE STILL NOT CLOSE TO THE END.
IN THAT REGARD, THE MESSAGING FROM THE ISRAELI WAR CABINET
HAS BEEN CHANGING A LOT OVER TIME. THIS IS PUTTING A LOT OF
PRESSURE ON BIDEN, HE'S LOSING A LOT OF SUPPORT FROM NOT ONLY
THE REPUBLICANS, BUT FROM DEMOCRATS.
HE'S LOSING FROM DEMOCRATS IN THE CENTER AND ON THE RIGHT FOR
TRYING TO PUT ANY PRESSURE ON THE ISRAELI WAR CABINET IN THE
FIGHT IN RUSSIA, WHICH EVERYONE EXPECTS IS COMING.
AND HE'S LOSING A LOT OF SUPPORT ON THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT
FOR BEING AS CLOSE TO ISRAEL AND SUPPORTING ISRAEL AS HE HAS.
IT IS A HORRIBLE POSITION FOR BIDEN TO BE IN.
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FACT THE WAR IS GOING TO CONTINUE AND
THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER, ANY TIME BIDEN SAYS WE NEED MORE
HUMANITARIAN AID FOR THE PALESTINIANS, OR WE NEED A TWO
STATE SOLUTION, OR WE NEED YOU NOT TO ATTACK ROFF, EVERY TIME
THE PRIME MINISTER RESPONDS TO HIS STRONGEST ALLY PROVIDING
HIM MOST OF HIS MILITARY SUPPORT SAYING I'M NOT GOING TO
LISTEN TO YOU. THAT MAKES THE PRESIDENT LOOK
VERY WEAK ON THIS GLOBAL STAGE. KAILEY:
ESPECIALLY NOT JUST THE GLOBAL STAGE TO CONSIDER, BUT THE
DOMESTIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UPSET IN
TERMS OF VOTER VIEWS. YOUNG VOTERS, ESPECIALLY ON
CAMPUSES, WITH THE WAY THE ADMINISTRATION HAS CONDUCTED
ITS POLICY AROUND ISRAEL. HENCE THE PROTESTS ON COLLEGE
CAMPUSES AS WELL AS COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY.
YOU SPOKE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF
INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS GRADUATION THIS PAST
WEEKEND. YOU TALKED ABOUT THE PROTESTS.
>> I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT DOING GOOD AND SOLVING
PROBLEMS ARE YOUR GOALS.
AND YET, YOU ARE LEAVING A CAMPUS THAT HAS BEEN RIPPED
APART BY AN INTRACTABLE PROBLEM OF OUR SOCIETIES IN CONFLICT.
>> YOU CLEARLY GAVE THAT ADDRESS ADD AN INCREDIBLY TENSE
MOMENT. WHAT WAS IT LIKE TO GIVE IT?
>> IT WAS THE CONTEXT -- THE CONTEXT WAS CHALLENGING.
THERE WOULD BE A SOLID 15% OR 20% OF GRADUATING STUDENTS
WEARING IT IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE PALESTINIANS, HAD
PALESTINIAN FLAGS THEY BROUGHT
ONTO THE STAGE AND/OR HAD CALLS FOR DIVESTMENT A LITTLE WRAPPED
UP DIPLOMA TYPES THAT THEY WERE HANDING TO THE DEAN CONFERRING
THEIR CERTIFICATES TO THEM.
THIS WAS A HOT ISSUE, AND THERE WERE STRONG PASSIONS.
NOT ONE STUDENT TURNED THEIR BACK, NOT ONE STUDENT LEFT THE
CEREMONY, EVERYBODY APPLAUDED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SPEECH.
I HEARD SOME CHANTING, I HEARD SOME DISRUPTIONS, ALMOST AS IF
THERE WAS A FIGHT IN THE BAR, LIKE I'M GETTING THERE.
I HEAR YOU, I'M WITH YOU. GIVE ME A SECOND.
I WILL GET THERE. AND TO THEIR CREDIT, THEY DID.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SPEECH, YOU CAN SEE THEM WILLING TO
LISTEN AND ENGAGE. THAT HAS BEEN MY EXPERIENCE
WITH MY STUDENTS ALL YEAR LONG. THAT HAS BEEN MY EXPERIENCE ON
THE COLUMBIA CAMPUS. YOU CAN WATCH THE HEADLINES AND
SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF CRAZY PEOPLE THAT WILL GIVE YOU THE
HEADLINE YOU WANT TO PROMOTE THAT SAYS THEY SUPPORT HAMAS.
THESE STUDENTS DON'T SUPPORT HAMAS, NOT AT ALL.
THE STUDENTS ARE YOUNG PEOPLE THAT FEEL LIKE THERE ARE A
BUNCH OF DISPOSSESSED PEOPLE GETTING THE SHORT END OF THE
STICK. THEY WANT TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
IT. STUDENTS ALWAYS HAVE. IF YOU RESPECT THEM AND
LISTENING TO THEM, YOU CAN ALSO CHALLENGE THEM.
IT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL IF YOU'RE GOING TO CHALLENGE
STUDENTS YOU WILL BE HONEST AND AUTHENTIC WITH THEM AND TALK
ABOUT YOUR FAILINGS AND WHAT YOU HAVE NOT DONE RIGHT
YOURSELF BEFORE THEY GIVE YOU ANY WILLINGNESS TO PAY
ATTENTION. I THINK THAT IS THE HARDEST
THING FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE TO DO RIGHT NOW. KAILEY: INDEED.
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