TEDxWarwick - John Kay - Obliquity: How Complex Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly

Summary

The transcript explores the concept of 'obliquity,' which posits that complex goals are often better achieved indirectly. Using examples from geography, space exploration, and business, it illustrates how direct paths can lead to failure, such as ICI's decline due to an overemphasis on shareholder value. The speaker argues that true objectives are often complicated and that decision-making should embrace uncertainty. Historical perspectives, including insights from John Stuart Mill and the distinction between foxes and hedgehogs, emphasize the importance of flexibility and indirect strategies in navigating life's complexities.

Takeaways

• 🌊 The Pacific Ocean is accessed from the Atlantic via the Panama Canal, demonstrating the concept of obliquity, where indirect paths can be more effective.
• 🚀 Space missions, like NASA's journey to Mercury, require complex trajectories rather than direct routes, illustrating that indirect approaches often yield better results.
• 📈 The shift in corporate goals from broad objectives to shareholder value maximization can lead to failure, as seen in the case of ICI.
• 💰 Bear Stearns' motto of making 'nothing but money' highlights how a singular focus on profit can be detrimental in the long run.
• 🔬 Sir James Black's experience in drug research exemplifies that pursuing complex goals indirectly can lead to greater success.
• 🧐 John Stuart Mill's writings emphasize that happiness often comes from focusing on objectives other than oneself, supporting the idea of obliquity.
• 🏛️ Modernism in architecture reflects a direct approach that fails to consider the complex social dynamics of human interaction.
• 🌍 Defining goals can be complicated, and our understanding evolves as we work through them, as seen with the UN's Human Development Index.
• ❓ The world is filled with uncertainties; distinguishing known unknowns from true unknowns helps navigate complex situations.
• 🦊 Adopting a fox-like mindset, which embraces eclectic knowledge and adaptability, is crucial for making effective decisions in unpredictable environments.

Q & A

What is the main concept discussed in the transcript?

The main concept discussed is 'obliquity,' which suggests that complex goals are often best achieved indirectly rather than through direct pursuit.

How does the speaker illustrate the concept of obliquity using geography?

The speaker explains that to travel from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, one should take the Panama Canal route, which is indirect, rather than going straight west.

What example does the speaker provide from space exploration?

The speaker mentions NASA's mission to Mercury, where the spacecraft had to take a complex route, traveling five billion miles instead of the direct 50 million miles, to successfully reach its destination.

What did the shift in ICI's business objectives signify?

ICI shifted its objectives from serving customers and responsible practices to maximizing shareholder value, which ultimately led to its decline and dissolution as a company.

How does the speaker relate the idea of obliquity to happiness?

The speaker references John Stuart Mill's notion that happiness is best attained by focusing on other objectives rather than making happiness the direct goal.

What critique does the speaker offer regarding modernist architecture?

The speaker critiques modernist architecture for oversimplifying complex human interactions by creating buildings that function merely as 'machines for living,' which neglects social needs.

What challenge does the speaker identify in defining objectives?

The speaker points out that defining objectives is complicated and that the process of working through them can reveal what they actually are.

How does Donald Rumsfeld's quote contribute to the discussion on uncertainty?

Rumsfeld's quote differentiates between known unknowns and unknown unknowns, highlighting the unpredictability and complexity of the future, which aligns with the need for an oblique approach.

What is the significance of the story about the London Underground?

The story illustrates how relying solely on simplified models, like the Tube map, can lead to inefficient decisions; understanding the broader context is essential to navigating complex situations effectively.

What advice does Benjamin Franklin provide for making decisions?

Benjamin Franklin suggests creating a list of pros and cons to evaluate decisions, although the speaker notes that people often rationalize decisions they have already made.

What distinction does the speaker make between foxes and hedgehogs?

The speaker uses the fox and hedgehog metaphor to describe personality types: foxes are pragmatic and flexible, while hedgehogs focus on a single, overarching idea, emphasizing the need for adaptability in a complex world.