Nightly Scan 09/27 + First Week October Outlook

Summary

The speaker discusses their successful stock and options trades, particularly focusing on TSM, AMD, and SHOP. They express regret for not capitalizing fully on TSM's potential but highlight their substantial gains on AMD and SHOP. The speaker also shares their trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of patience and conviction. They review their current positions and future trade plans, including watching for specific price levels and potential market movements.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker feels great and had a successful trading day, with multiple positions yielding over 200% returns.
• 📈 TSM (TSMC) options mentioned had the potential to earn six figures but were trimmed early after an initial loss, resulting in a significant gain nonetheless.
• 💹 AMD had a strong upward movement, and the speaker anticipates a continued rise, possibly to the 175 level, with a pullback to 162 being an area of interest.
• 📊 The speaker discusses a strategy of taking profits on long-dated calls and rolling into shorter-dated contracts for more aggressive moves after resistance levels are broken.
• 🛍 MU (Micron Technology) had a significant earnings-related gap up, and the speaker is looking for a pullback to add to positions, targeting the 130 call level.
• 📉 The speaker took profits on SHOP (Shopify) after a large move up and is looking for a pullback to around 7705 to add again, with an eye on the 835 resistance level.
• 🌐 The overall market is discussed, with a potential window of weakness until October 7th, suggesting a possible pullback and the opportunity to buy dips.
• 📅 Upcoming economic events like PCE and non-farm payrolls are highlighted, which may influence market movements, particularly in the first week of October.
• 🚀 The speaker took a position in SMCI ahead of its stock split, expecting a potential pop based on a fair value gap and recent price action.
• ⏰ Patience and conviction in trading strategies are emphasized, with the speaker noting the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and sticking to a plan.

Q & A

What was the speaker's strategy with TSM 180 calls for October 18th?

The speaker had a strategy to buy TSM 180 calls for October 18th at a low price, expecting the contracts to go as low as 1.2. They planned to average down their cost to around 200-220 if the price broke support at 168-165, but the contracts never reached their desired entry point.

How did the speaker's AMD position perform?

The speaker's AMD position performed well, with the stock price breaking above a certain resistance level. They took profits by trimming almost all of their position, leaving only one contract. They expected the stock to continue moving up to 175 and were looking for a pullback to re-enter the position.

What was the speaker's view on MU after earnings?

The speaker viewed MU positively after earnings, noting that the stock gapped up significantly and held above a certain level post-earnings, which they considered a good sign. They were looking to roll into 130 calls again but wanted to wait for the contracts to cool down and implied volatility to decrease.

What was the speaker's strategy for SHOP stock?

The speaker was waiting for a pullback in SHOP stock to add to their position. They mentioned a specific level, 7705, as the prime area to add on a pullback. They were targeting a move up to fill a gap around 90-91.

How did the speaker feel about QQQ and what was their strategy?

The speaker had a positive view on QQQ, having taken a position that went up 70%. They expected QQQ to continue its upward trajectory and were looking for a move up to 493. Their strategy was to take profits and roll to shorter dated contracts for more aggressive moves.

What was the speaker's experience with CROWD stock?

The speaker did not provide specific details about their experience with CROWD stock in the script, but they mentioned it as one of their primary focuses along with INTC and FSLR.

What was the speaker's take on the market's potential weakness in the first week of October?

The speaker anticipated a potential weakness in the market during the first week of October due to a lack of flows supporting the market. They suggested this could lead to a selloff, which they would view as an opportunity to buy the dip.

What economic indicators was the speaker going to watch for in the upcoming week?

The speaker planned to watch for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and non-farm payrolls as economic indicators in the upcoming week.

What was the speaker's strategy for INTC and FSLR?

The speaker was looking to take positions in INTC and FSLR. For INTC, they were waiting for the stock to either get above 2459 or pull back to 2194. For FSLR, they were considering taking calls for October 18th or even stretching to the 300 call, depending on how the stock reacted to the PCE data.

What did the speaker mean by 'fair value gap' in the context of SMCI?

The speaker referred to a 'fair value gap' in SMCI as a significant price imbalance that occurred due to a probe announcement before a stock split. They believed that if the stock could confirm above a certain level, it could pop back up to 471, representing a substantial potential gain.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Gains and Trading Strategies

The speaker discusses their positive trading day, highlighting significant gains from positions on TSM and AMD stocks. They express regret at not maximizing profits from TSM, which could have yielded over six figures. They also mention trimming most of their AMD position but are optimistic about potential future gains. The speaker outlines their trading strategy, which involves buying calls at lower prices and selling when stocks break through resistance levels. They also discuss their focus on other stocks like INTC, FSLR, and QQQ, and their anticipation of adding Tesla to their watchlist.

05:02

💹 AMD and MU's Market Performance

The speaker analyzes AMD's stock performance, noting its potential for a pullback after a significant rise. They discuss their strategy of waiting for a pullback to a specific price point before considering new trades. The conversation also covers MU's earnings and the stock's reaction, highlighting the importance of maintaining a strong price level post-earnings. The speaker shares their approach to trading options, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic planning.

10:03

📊 SHOP and CROWD's Trading Outlook

The speaker provides an update on SHOP, discussing the possibility of a pullback to a key support level and their strategy for adding positions if the price holds. They also mention CROWD, focusing on the importance of not trading impulsively and allowing the market to 'marinate' to get a clearer picture. The speaker emphasizes the potential for significant price movements in SHOP and CROWD, suggesting a strategic approach to entering and exiting trades.

15:03

🚀 TSM's Trading Experience and Learnings

The speaker reflects on their trading experience with TSM, detailing the challenges and lessons learned. They discuss the importance of being lenient with trades, especially when dealing with technical indicators like EMAs. The conversation also touches on the potential for TSM to continue its upward trajectory, with the speaker outlining their expectations and the criteria they use to evaluate trade success.

20:04

🌐 Market Analysis and Upcoming Predictions

The speaker offers a broader market analysis, discussing various stocks and their potential movements. They mention First Solar and INTC, providing specific price points and strategies for trading these stocks. The speaker also shares their thoughts on market trends, upcoming economic reports, and their impact on trading. They emphasize the importance of patience and strategic planning in capitalizing on market opportunities.

25:05

📉 Reflecting on Market Volatility and Strategy

The speaker summarizes their trading week, reflecting on the market's volatility and the importance of having a solid trading strategy. They discuss the potential for market weakness in the upcoming week and the opportunities this may present for buying dips. The conversation also covers the speaker's personal trading experiences, including a significant gain from a single trade. They conclude by emphasizing the value of patience and conviction in trading.

Keywords

💡TSM

TSM refers to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, a key player in the semiconductor industry. In the video, the speaker discusses their experience with TSM's options trading, particularly the 180 calls for October 18th. The keyword is central to the video's theme of stock and options trading, as it exemplifies the speaker's trading strategy and the potential for significant gains or losses.

💡Calls

In the context of options trading, 'calls' refer to the contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a specified price before a certain date. The speaker mentions TSM 180 calls, indicating a specific type of call option they were trading. This keyword is integral to understanding the video's focus on leveraging options for profit.

💡Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are concepts used in technical analysis to identify price levels where the stock price is likely to pause or reverse. The speaker discusses these levels in relation to TSM's stock price, indicating a break below support at 168-165, which is a significant event impacting their trade strategy.

💡AMD

AMD is mentioned as another stock the speaker is trading. It stands for Advanced Micro Devices, a major semiconductor company. The speaker talks about their positions in AMD, indicating a break above a certain price level, which is a positive sign for the stock's upward movement. This keyword is relevant to the video's theme of stock trading and market analysis.

💡Pullback

A pullback refers to a temporary drop in the price of a stock after a period of increase. The speaker anticipates a pullback in AMD's stock price as an opportunity to add to their position, illustrating the concept's importance in the video's discussion of trading strategies.

💡MU

MU stands for Micron Technology, a company involved in semiconductor devices. The speaker discusses MU's earnings report and the subsequent stock price movement, using it as an example of how to manage trades following significant corporate events. This keyword is crucial for understanding the video's exploration of earnings impact on stock prices.

💡Gap Up

A gap up occurs when the opening price of a stock is higher than the previous day's closing price, often due to market optimism. The speaker mentions a gap up in relation to MU's stock, indicating strong market sentiment post-earnings. This term is vital for understanding the video's analysis of stock price movements.

💡QQQ

QQQ refers to the Invesco QQQ Trust, an ETF that tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index. The speaker discusses trading QQQ, emphasizing a significant move in the ETF's price. This keyword is important for grasping the video's broader examination of market trends beyond individual stocks.

💡Trade Plan

A trade plan is a strategy outlining a trader's entry and exit points, stop losses, and profit targets. The speaker mentions having a trade plan for TSM, which played out as anticipated, underscoring the importance of planning in successful trading. This keyword is central to the video's advocacy for structured trading approaches.

💡EMA

EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average, a type of average that places greater weight on recent prices, thus reacting more significantly to recent price changes than a simple moving average. The speaker refers to EMAs in the context of anticipating a pullback in AMD's stock, highlighting the video's use of technical indicators to forecast price movements.

💡PCE

PCE could refer to Personal Consumption Expenditures, which measure the total amount of goods and services purchased by consumers. The speaker anticipates PCE data as a potential market catalyst, demonstrating the video's consideration of economic indicators' influence on trading decisions.

Highlights

The speaker expresses optimism about their trading performance and feels great about recent outcomes.

Mentions a missed opportunity to make over six figures from TSM 180 calls for October 18th.

Discusses TSM's support breaking at 168-165 but not reaching the desired area to add contracts.

AMD positions went over 200% and the speaker trimmed almost all of them, leaving only one contract.

MU lotos trade resulted in a remarkable gap up, moving from entry to a high of 32%.

The speaker did not get a full position on MU lotos but still considers it a win.

QQQ was swung with a successful trade, closing at a high of 493.

The speaker had one of their best trading days with multiple positions going extreme percents.

CROWD is the only trade that's currently drawn down, but a quick overview is provided.

The speaker reaffirms the importance of having a trade plan and seeing it play out despite doubts.

Net gain for the day was about $25,000, but the speaker believes they could have made more.

The speaker outlines their primary focuses for future trades: QQQ, MU, SHOP, CROWD, AMD, INTC, and FSLR.

AMD is discussed as a lagging semi-name with potential for a pullback to 162.

MU is compared to SHOP in terms of trading patterns and potential for future gains.

SHOP is viewed as not yet actionable for new entries or additions, with a preference for a pullback to 7705.

The speaker talks about the potential of a window of weakness until October 7th in the market.

FSLR is considered for a potential trade based on a volume range profile and upcoming PCE event.

INTC is watched for a move above 2459 or a pullback to 2194, with an If-This-Then-That trading strategy.

SMCI is discussed as a weird trade taken due to an upcoming split and probe.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and conviction in trading.

QQQ is briefly discussed with a simple trade plan of basing at 488 and marking up to 497.

Transcripts

as always my people what's going on hope

everyone had a great day uh if you

cannot tell just by my voice I feel

great um everything played out as it

should have um a little upset right I

mean I don't know if you guys saw right

the TSM 180 calls that I had for October

uh what was it October

18th um theoretically had I added down

here right these contracts I think the

contracts one as low as like 1.2 but

they never broke really the area that I

was looking to add against it did break

that support I won't deny that which was

that 168 165 but had I added down here

into contracts that were like one uh my

average probably could have gotten down

to like 220 200 bucks uh and they ended

up moving to 800 I think today so insane

gain uh I could have made honestly over

six figures on this trade uh but it is

what it is right I mean you guys saw

that this played out today TSM I had two

positions that both went over 200% on

this uh AMD as well right remember our

ads were down here off of this uh 155

Zone we ended up breaking or kind of

stalling out at 162 but we gapped above

I still think this continues up into

175 and I'm just looking for as right I

kind of already have this drawn out

nicely um maybe some kind of pullback

here High tight flag or maybe a retest

of0 62 uh and I'll be looking to add

this again and kind of roll but uh this

ended up going I think like 70 to 90% uh

I trimmed almost all of that I only have

a contract left so I mean we'll see if I

can get the pullback ad uh what else did

I have man I feel like I had so many

things mu lotos that I ended up taking

uh remember I specified that I was just

going to take a lotos down here I wanted

to get full position down here did it

happen no I didn't get a full position

but still right a remarkable Gap

up from entry uh we moved all the way

for a high of like 30 bucks today 32%

and um yeah mean just a great great

overall win on that uh shop today um you

know still doing extremely well this

looks strong kind of holding here at the

highs of this Gap at 77 if it can pull

back obviously I would like to get some

more size on those as well but this

overall is like 50% or so uh QQQ guys we

swung this as well uh remember I took

them right here um right into the close

actually we had this hourly uh kind of

flag remember like right around here uh

I don't remember I don't really trade

Flags like that but we just had a tight

compression against uh this old lower

high here this trend line uh if I just

kind of pull it across you guys will see

it's this green line right kind of just

very nicely placed right above that low

diminishing volume low spread and then

we got a big pop all the way to uh

493 right we we ended up getting a huge

move on that those contracts went 70% I

think this is one of the best days I've

ever had in terms of multiple positions

going extreme percents like I said 200%

200% I had a three or I think mu was

like 400% shop 50% QQQ 70% um only draw

down really right now is crowd uh but I

just wanted to kind of go over this

really quickly um and there's no better

feeling than like having a a trade plan

having people doubt you um seeing

sentiment kind of go against what you

think is going to happen and then it

does exactly what you think right it

just it gives you like a nice ego boost

and and kind of reaffirms that you know

what you're doing um and like I said

guys I mean I post everything I do um I

was able to net about 25,000 today uh is

it what I wanted to get no right I mean

like I said I should have made over six

figures on this at the very least I

could have pulled like 60 to 990,000 if

I didn't trim on TSM uh but after for

that initial loss I I definitely had to

do something in terms of taking profits

and mitigating as much as I could right

but overall fantastic move uh and now

it's this is the hard part right time to

move on um these charts are done TSM

like I said last night uh is off the

list and this is kind of what I have now

with QQQ mu shop crowd AMD being primary

focuses and then secondary focuses are

INTC and

fslr um so let's just jump into some

fresh charts um I have a you know

obviously these are going to change as

well I still kind of want to add Tesla

on here uh for a potential pullback

candidate uh onto this this kind of back

here right so if we can get something

like this uh I think this is a decent

candidate remember we have that event

coming up here on the 10th of October

maybe the e8th I don't remember the

exact date so it's getting a little

risky uh but I want to start with some

of these names here right

INTC fslr AMD crowd shop uh and then mu

I just want to talk about them briefly

kind of I'm looking at uh cuz I do think

that these aren't done right I think uh

mu specifically shop specifically crowd

and AMD have plenty of room to go Intel

ton of room but I do want to take that

as a share focus and fslr is going to be

uh we'll just see this could be just

something that plays out tomorrow with

pce uh but it could be a multi-day mover

over the next week or two so let's jump

into these really quickly so let's just

start with AMD because this is one of

the lagging semi names uh and this still

looks really good uh and it pretty much

broke through everything that I wanted I

just want to see a pull back and hold

now essentially of this lower high that

kind of sent this down for the higher

low you can't ignore this spot it's 162

right and we are pushing to the top of

this uh not resistance but technically

it's our our Gap right and there's

always going to be sellers that are

trying to pin price underneath that so

like I said and you guys have seen this

multiple times whether we get a high

tight flag that ends up forming kind of

like this right against the EMAs once

those end up catching up or we could get

a pullback that's a little bit deeper

right and we end up getting that move

that I had drawn out where we end up

hitting here pull back to hold 162 and

then break into the Gap base and then go

I still think this needs to stay on

Watch and I'm going to do exactly what I

did before uh and hopefully you guys

have kind of caught this system I like

to take longer dated calls to add into

positions on Trend and then when it

breaks through right key resistance

levels and bases I'll take profits and

then I like to use those profits and

roll to Shorter dated contracts to

Target the more aggressive kind of move

right especially once we chiseled

through resistance uh I think that once

those are absorbed you're able to kind

of then size up or not I shouldn't say

size up but take more aggressive

approaches right um so this is going to

be a big one uh either for a 162

pullback or a high tight flag like I

said against the EMAs and we can take a

look at those EMAs on the 921 we are

kind of lagging right so this is given

signs that this could be kind of like a

hangman or spinning top uh against 16980

which is that Gap and then we get that

pull back and everybody should welcome

that right there should be nothing wrong

with that um there's nothing more than I

hate and I don't hate it for like my

reasons but for you guys that will see

stuff intraday like 5 15 hourly and you

guys will see a big meltdown right on

the smaller time frame and you're like

oh man that thing looks terrible oh this

thing's dying and then you take your

eyes off of it or you'll short it when

the opportunity really or uh is baked

into the the downside being an opportune

time to buy calls right um so that's

what I'm really waiting for is a

pullback into 162 uh or a high tight

flag just letting the EMAs catch up to

this because this is a pretty extensive

move that we've seen against semis or

not against but with semis across the

board and I don't think this really

Fizzles out till we get to like 177 176

right uh so this is going to be a big

watch for me I just wanted to see how it

reacted today just to see if we got the

Gap up or what ended up happening but

this is behaving pretty

well okay with mu this was a huge win

off of earnings uh but very similar to

shop right we've talked about shop and

how this looks eerily similar maybe not

in the same sense of where support

resistance is but it do have a peg right

where we ended up gapping above uh a lot

of your resistance which was pretty much

back here right we gapped above that we

shot basically printed an inverted

hammer and then we continued through

that spot to fill this Gap I don't think

mu is exactly the same but I think it's

the same in the sense that we are now

gapping above a lower high a previous

gap which also acted as support and then

we were able to defend that today after

earnings right that's always a good sign

is once earnings happen do people take

profit in masses and are they able to

protect that Peg that power earnings Gap

or do they let it kind of Sizzle back

down into that and then collapse and

fill the Gap right uh this is obviously

a huge huge gap andan if we take it from

here to here right this I mean this was

disgusting this was a 17 almost 20% move

I doubt they're going to give that back

uh and it held very nicely right right

over the level right over 10878 we can

just round out to like 108 um so I'm

like I said I'm waiting for contracts to

kind of cool down this was a good sign

today that it kind of wicked below but

closed back above and a lot of that

volume actually came from buyers trying

to push this back Above So once again

just a couple days of like I don't know

I would just say some rest against 10878

and then I'm going to be looking to roll

obviously into those 130 calls again but

I'm going to take a little bit uh less

time on those contracts obviously if

contracts cool really nicely

um and IV comes down rather quickly uh

I'll probably still take like December

if we'll have to look at the contracts

but just kind of know that I'm looking

at the 130 call towards the end of the

year right this is still going to be a

swing trade just because of the off

chance that this does kind of sell down

kind of like crowd guys you got to think

about crowd I'll go over that here in a

second but right there was a perfect

level that had a lower high where we had

a break of structure and sometimes

things aren't perfect they seep a little

bit lower and they come to the EMAs or

maybe on a weekly candle that just ends

up being a you got to think about these

things and be a little bit lenient

that's why it's so important not to go

super heavy right away and kind of let

things marinate on The Daily weekly uh

rather than being so uh impulsive right

so just want to see this marinate here

above 10878 see what it does I'll kind

of determine the contracts from there

but just know I'm looking for a move up

into this 127 to 130 spot this should

happen rather quickly uh if Shorts kind

of were kind of caught under underwater

here it's going to happen very very

quickly where we see uh secondary phase

melt up into this 127 spot so really

important here you guys can even just

see from like a weekly perspective right

lower high this was our previous floor

really strong weekly bar now if we can

just get the close over the top I think

this just continues very very simply uh

or very very uh easily right so that's

going to be a big watch for me as well

mu above 10878 rolls into

130 okay just an update on shop um I

don't really think this is act able yet

for people that are looking to get in or

add I still have those contracts guys

and I've pretty much just been waiting

to to add on a pullback uh remember this

pullback is a really simple level it's

this Gap fill here back at

7705 ties in really nicely to the area

that it had prior uh previously rejected

I'm sorry uh and obviously this is what

pulled back it gave us that higher low

and then it started its markup again uh

remember entry for us was back here up

about 50% on these contracts that I

currently have uh but I would like to

see us get this pull back to

7705 the only issue here is this week

has been really strong this has been a

very very strong chart uh you guys can

see right the weekly open was like right

around uh what was it the open is 79

Flats right and our low of the week uh

is 7877 so barely any movement to the

downside uh you guys can see how

marginal that Wick is uh and it's just

stayed incredibly strong this week

against these highs here so there

doesn't it doesn't look like there needs

to even be a pullback if anything it

looks like it's already going to push

through this weekly High which is around

8113 uh and today's candle um maybe is

going to be what does it they had an

opportunity in my opinion for sellers to

give us that pullback here on Wednesday

but the fact that we pretty much just

negated that instantly today uh we broke

underneath that low from Wednesday and

then soaked all the way back up to the

highs here uh we're starting to see a

little bit of an uptick in volume I

think pce might be what pushes it over

the edge to give us a move up into the

835 resistance and that's that Gap that

I'm targeting so I want to give you guys

kind of like the actionable setup

obviously uh if it does sell tomorrow 80

or

7705 uh is kind of the Prime area to add

in my opinion on that pullback and if it

can hold that's fantastic if not I think

there's a similar setup here to AMD in a

lot of other charts right just obviously

in my opinion you're going to be sellers

here at 835 now if it can give us that

rejection in a high tight flat FL let

the EMAs catch up I think that's an

opportunity to size in again or take a

roll on these and if people haven't

gotten an entry I think that's going to

be a good opportunity because that's

what I'm going to be doing personally

looking for another high flag off of

that 835 rejection catching this off the

EMAs and obviously you have to have the

criteria met I would like to see

decreasing spread diverging volume in

this pulling back and not really giving

up too much distance uh on that pullback

right I just want to see it very very

controlled uh and obviously not too far

away from that high things will look in

shape up pretty good in my opinion and I

I would likely take some more ads on

that and this is still the same right

I'm targeting 88 to this Gap fill here

around like 90

91 uh and yeah I think this chart will

come to fruition here rather quickly as

well uh I don't even think it's going to

take until the earning cycle I think if

anything that earning cycle might be

what sells it off now uh the market is

pretty hot so uh yeah just wanted to

jump into this one um will talk about

kind of going into QQQ and some of these

other names we do have a window of

weakness till October 7th just keep that

in mind where we don't really have any

flows that can kind of propel the market

up we've already seen that pass by and I

think this is just a squeeze that we're

seeing uh some kind of squeeze effect

from that uh but in that first week of

October we do have potential to kind of

uh pull back I would say or see some

kind of selloff um and obviously I still

view these as an opportunity to get long

on some of these dips but uh that might

happen here right I'm not trying to like

look into the future and predict the

timing of this but you know I still

think that there is going to be a little

bit of a pullback that occurs uh the

first week of October here so uh this is

going to be shop uh not the best one but

I just wanted to cover

it okay this is the one that I think

everybody's like just watching right now

which is good this is a great setup uh

but I did talk about right like and I

just said it with uh a few other charts

that things aren't always perfect right

we did have this Gap here which was our

lower high and in a picture perfect

world this pulls back we bounce right

off of this Tuesday low and we rip right

it doesn't always work like that we saw

decrease in spread here then with today

we obviously saw this kind of engulf

that Wednesday candle uh but I did say I

want to be lenient with this I took four

contracts for a reason uh not only

because I wanted to give it the ability

to bounce off the EMAs and let these

kind of catch up but also I want to give

it time to see if we can get like a

weekly close over this and see some kind

of strong Wick or indication of buyers

being able to pull it above

285 uh and then obviously as well I

think the elephant in the room is his

contracts that I'm in are a little bit

spread right the bid I think was like at

2. like one at one point which I was

able to get uh but then the ask was at

like 2.3 2.4 so it's almost a 30p point

spread which is huge if you get the

incorrect fill you just end up going at

the ask or you end up getting a market

fill when you're buying to get in uh and

somebody gets a bid fill you're already

down like 15 20% so

long story short here I'm down like 30%

28% and I know that's not the real story

of this if I get a bid fill with just

one contract that'll suck my my cost

basis down quite a bit I'll probably be

down like 19% if I get two fills right

I'm down 8% so I'm not really too

worried about this one and I'm like I

said I'm going to be lenient with this

one uh against these EMAs here I usually

don't trade EMAs uh the elephant in the

room as well is that there's a gap here

um from this open down to this close

here so there is potential maybe this

pulls down into the 21 uh either way

right I'm just going to be leaning with

this one I do think this is going to be

a winner uh but I do think that you know

maybe if we bounce off the EMAs it's

going to require one more higher low off

of that 285 spot uh but really this

starts to confirm and we'll know we're

right based off these daily weekly

closes I think this is a pretty big one

pce tomorrow might give us that push

back above 285 to 290 uh and if it you

know obviously gives us that and we are

able to pull back and hold the top of it

around 290 285 just in this General

range kind of like this right here I

think I might add one more time now that

we've already kind of tested the EMAs I

think we should be good to go if we can

just put in a higher low off 285 290 and

uh Target right away right just to kind

of give us that good feeling that we're

in the right trade is a clear harmonic

break through 29985 we could just round

that to 300 uh once it does that

actually I think I let's just take the

wick right so basically yeah we'll just

say 300 uh I would like to see us break

through that harmonically maybe give us

pull back onto that and then just

continue its trajectory up to

31675 uh 31675 I would probably take a

little bit of a trim on that maybe half

3/4s uh and then from there obviously

targeting 336 to 342 um that's The Sweet

Spot I think that's what's really going

to pay us and just think about this

right I mean this is such a easy trade

in my opinion for the potential to have

almost a 64o move right um nasty nasty

move these contracts will do very very

well um with just uh the amount of Delta

and Gamma that you're going to yield on

these and the risk is relatively low uh

it is a little bit subjective and that's

why I said I want to be lenient I don't

have like a clear stop uh in terms of a

level it's more so just EMA based and

ideally we claim back above 285 but yeah

this is going to be a really good trade

uh I will let you guys know if I add

into this again uh I'm trying not to add

on strength though right like if this

starts to look good and starts to run uh

it's going to be hard to get a bid fill

but also you don't want to just click

buy the ask because you're going to get

those those fills that have that are 30

points higher than the current bid right

so um ideally this ends up kind of

popping and it starts to pull back into

285 290 like I said I'll be able to kind

of see using the options chart what the

uh what the the prior price was in that

General range and I'll kind of just bid

down I might bid like three to four

contracts this time to try to get to 10

to 15 uh but yeah that's kind of the

game plan here just slowly bidding in

against 285 290 and then once it starts

to break out and once we clear 300 I'm

not going to add into this again I don't

really want to add into the 300 pullback

at that point I'd rather just let my

trade do its thing uh and ideally we

kind of look like something like this

right we have a move here and we end up

kind of capturing this full play up to

like a 4.0 right that's a 4.0 risk uh

and that's kind of what we trade for

right anything over two and a half hour

is good in my book so this is what I'm

going to be looking at uh for the next

couple days just to see if we can

confirm above that spot

as for a new entry guys uh I want to go

back to First Solar um if you guys

remember we actually traded it back here

uh when it was in this tight

consolidation uh and really we ended up

having uh kind of like a flag pull back

into this progression Gap here I'm 99%

sure we caught the pop up into this

24096 spot and then I tried to roll as

it made its way back down and then it

just ended up failing uh and I took the

loss on that so win loss and then add

this crazy big move back up to that same

240 level it ended up kind of doing the

same thing where it pulled back and then

it's progressively made its way back up

to reclaim this resistance at

24096 and then Wednesday we had a nice

pop right and that led into today and

this was the area that I was targeting

it was

25357 this is a nice little resistance

here uh and we have pce tomorrow guys um

and I really think that this can trade

and I don't use this all the time I just

do it when I see imbalances like this

with prior trading action uh in like

large clusters cuz this can be a very

easy opportunity for this to kind of

move through this spot quickly right

because there's only three bars that

sold this off but there is a potential

magnet with the trading volume that took

place here so that's when I like to use

a volume range profile and there indeed

is a nice little pocket I think we can

fly through up into this 275 to 280

range uh and really kind of peak out

here uh and then from there I think you

can go to an all-time high but uh really

just depends on what pce does does

tomorrow um if it just obviously gaps up

and hits 280 I'm not going to have much

interest in this but if we can have you

know some kind of uh maybe like an open

like right around 264 and then we pull

back and hold 253 I think there's a good

opportunity to enter there right I am

going to have this on watch I'll

probably be looking at like 280 290

calls for October 18th maybe even

stretch it up to the 300 call uh if we

can just Trend and you know obviously

have some kind of uh I would say

uh what am I trying to

say I can't think of the right word guys

you guys know what I'm trying to say

right kind of like just a simple Trend

right we can Trend above 253 let's say

we end up moving all the way up to this

280 and it looks decent we can like kind

of pull back here I wouldn't mind taking

calls again right and kind of just

adding in on Trends and being able to to

trade along with that uh and Target 300

right I think this has an opportunity to

go for that high there uh but yeah just

want to see how this opens up tomorrow

uh I am going to be keeping my eyes on

this very very heavily uh and then I was

looking at INTC this didn't happen today

just kind of keep your eyes on this one

I'm still looking at this for this to

get above

2459 uh or pull back to 2194 it's an If

This Then That Type situation uh but

this is about to trigger I have my alert

set as you guys can see down here so

just kind of a waiting game with Intel

those are the two main positions that

I'm looking to take tomorrow um that's

that's really it guys I don't really

think there's anything else if you guys

were you know obviously looking at the

chat I took smci today this just felt

incredibly weird this just felt so weird

uh they have their split coming up on

Tuesday uh you have this probe that

comes out right before and it drops all

the way to the swing low and then it

sweeps the swing low and then you have a

nice amount of buyers kind of stepping

in off of that low right I mean you had

immediate absorption off of that low you

swept the low with just amount I

wouldn't say the same amount of volume

but a good amount of volume that closed

above tight spread candle rip pullback

and now look what we're holding we're

kind of holding I would say that that

previous kind of uh I don't want to say

this is an absorption candle this is a

weird this is a weird trade so that's

why I just kind of felt like I wanted to

take a position on this one admittedly I

sized in pretty heavy way heavier than I

should have uh and I was at the gym when

I did this guys I once we ended up

getting this candle here we started to

trade and consolidate against these lows

I added pretty heavy uh you guys saw I

was able to get about $1,400 on this and

I I basically took profits came down to

three contracts and we'll see where this

ends up kind of holding and opening

tomorrow um but yeah I'm just going to

basically hold this until Tuesday I want

to hold this to the split and see if

this does anything crazy you also have

to think about this is an this is a true

fair value Gap right and I don't really

talk about fair value gaps all that much

anymore but this is a true imbalance

candle that happened right so if we can

really confirm

above this right here and there's a

reason it rejected right and we'll we'll

use our our red lines here so everything

kind of looks

clean right here right this is all a

fair value Gap I think that this can pop

back to 471 if I'm being real uh got to

do something like this where we flag

here POP hold and then start to just

Trend all the way up uh but yeah I think

we can definitely have a nice move here

going into that split and even post

split which is why I grabbed the October

18th um wor case scenario right we end

up selling under 382 I would likely

close out of this one and I there was a

someone in the chat today ston Le he's

been here forever uh I had kind of the

same level here right that this sells

Back Down Under 382 I think this can go

to

357 which is this previous previous uh

high before the major breakout that

really sent smci onto the map uh and

dude there what better place to take

calls man I I really do think that this

could be a good opportunity even with

some light size and just kind of having

that headline might have scared a lot of

people off a lot of people um usually

get fearful around that kind of stuff

and dude those are some of your best

trades even if it's light siiz so I felt

like there was a good opportunity to get

in this one we'll see what we end up

doing but if we can get that pop man I

mean this is a nasty nasty recovery my

average is right around the bottom of

this white line uh if we can get that

move man up to that fair value Gap

that's 83 bucks it's 21% on the

underline that'll be disgusting um so

that's why I took that

uh if you guys were curious um and yeah

I mean if you guys didn't want to

stomach that you guys didn't want to

take it it's not that big of a deal

nobody's forcing you guys to do anything

so uh just saw an opportunity seized it

while I did or while I could uh we'll

see what ends up happening with that but

uh yeah next week as well um let's just

kind of talk about this I did say right

that first week of each month there's

really not any flows it's usually two

weeks after the Opex so this will go

into October 7th where we have no flows

to be able to support the market doesn't

mean things can't like consolidate but

there is an opportunity for the market

to not be able to battle against any

downside pressures right so uh what

better week than our famous famous uh

Fed chair pal right on Monday I just saw

that but uh I was going to talk mainly

about jolts as well as non-farm payrolls

right we have non-farm payrolls and

jolts next week typically during these

weeks we'll see an enog form right so

maybe like a gap up on Monday I don't

want to get too far into that but we

typically see an nwg and a distribution

back into the nwg or we see an

accumulation into that or uh again I'm

going to try to word this right way we

see a gap up and a distribution back

into the Gap that that's below it or

right we'll end up seeing a gap down an

accumulation and a mark back up to the

Gap above right sorry that was like a

mouthful I had to think about that one

but uh yeah I think that we could see

the that window of weakness really take

effect uh on the first week of October

uh and then obviously after that I would

be looking to buy the dip after that o

this this October 6th week right so

hopefully we see a selloff next week

that would be nice to be able to kind of

reset some of these charts and and get

in on some of these pullbacks that I've

been waiting for uh and I would just

trade a little bit carefully next week I

would pay attention to the nwag i' would

be paying attention to uh you guys have

trady ticks I would definitely be using

that to be looking at the dark poool uh

orders that come through at the end each

day or at the beginning of each day as

well they do pop up I'll be looking at

those pre-market prints uh but yeah

that's all I wanted to kind of go over

today um hopefully this isn't too

lengthy I'll try to edit it all together

but um yeah that's pretty much it guys

QQQ oh I didn't touch on QQQ feel like

this is a simple one right I mean we

obviously broke above into this Gap here

at

488 uh pretty simple I would just like

to see it kind of Base here and then

obviously mark up to

497 um I did start a couple contracts

into the close here this looked all

right right we ended up filling the

overnight Gap up uh right around here

with these hourly candles tight spread

pop and then we're able to get another

tight spread uh on the final two hours

of trading above 48 and that is why I

took that so maybe a nice pop here this

is uh maybe from pce that ends up

getting us a move to that 497 and then

that trade will be done right and then

I'll be able to kind of sit back and

then really just watch the market next

week and see if there's any uh some dips

that look good uh but that's pretty PR

much it guys that's all I wanted to go

over thank you once again hopefully you

guys did well uh I know it was a lot of

waiting around in August um andan it

might have felt like it was a waste of

time but I mean you guys saw some of

these moves man uh I made basically

everything that I lost on TSM and then

some right but had I not stopped out of

that guys and had I just kind of stuck

to my convictions on that I would have

made a whole year of trading and and

literally just by waiting in two trades

over the period of one month I think it

was 20 days that it took for the for TSM

to work out and some of the other trades

so uh there's a lot of power in being

patient and a lot of power and having

conviction and just sticking to a few

charts and hopefully that proved it um a

lot of the people that cancelled that

didn't like what I was doing and wanted

to get the dopamine Rush of trading

extremely volatile stuff and and look at

new stuff each day uh they're all back

so it's kind of funny how it works uh it

is what it is guys but uh I'm always

going to do what I feel is right for

myself and my account if you guys want

to follow it's up to you like I said

this is never Financial advice I just

kind of log my trades and just talk man

I like I like kind of going over the

stuff and showing you guys the art of

trading so that's going to be it guys

love you guys I'll see you guys uh

tomorrow bright early