What Ukraine means for America and vice versa | On The Record

Summary

This transcript from a TVP World segment discusses the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. elections on Europe, specifically Poland and the region's security in the face of Russian aggression. The speakers debate whether a Kamala Harris presidency would ensure stability, continuing Biden's policies, while Donald Trump's possible return raises concerns over unpredictability and his softer stance toward Russia. The discussion touches on Ukraine, NATO, and the importance of U.S. involvement in maintaining transatlantic unity. The role of Polish-American voters and Trump's foreign policy approach are also explored.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The upcoming U.S. election is one of the most consequential in recent history, with a significant focus on foreign policy and implications for Europe and Poland.
• 🌍 Europe, especially Poland, is concerned about the future of transatlantic unity, with foreign policy being a central topic in the U.S. election.
• 🇺🇸 Kamala Harris is seen as a candidate likely to continue Biden's stable foreign policies, while Donald Trump is viewed as a disruptive force who may change the global order.
• 🇵🇱 Poland and the Baltic states are concerned about potential Russian aggression if Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine, with fears that he could target these regions next.
• 🛡️ Trump is perceived as more sympathetic to Putin and less supportive of Ukraine, which worries many in Europe who see U.S. support as crucial for regional security.
• 📊 Polish-American voters, particularly in the Midwest, may lean towards Kamala Harris, given her recognition of Poland's importance and policies favorable to European security.
• 🤝 Poland might benefit diplomatically from its relationship with both Trump and the Democratic Party, positioning it well regardless of the election outcome.
• ⚖️ A Trump presidency could bring unpredictability in foreign policy, potentially shifting the balance in how the U.S. engages with NATO, Ukraine, and global security.
• 💬 Trump's transactional view of foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and Russia, is seen as risky, potentially weakening Western alliances and emboldening autocrats.
• 🕊️ The possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with a third-party mediator like China or India potentially playing a role, but the U.S. election outcome could greatly impact this process.

Q & A

What is the significance of the upcoming US elections for Europe and Poland?

The upcoming US elections are considered highly consequential for Europe and Poland due to the potential for significant changes in foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia and the stability of transatlantic unity.

How does the perception of Kamala Harris' potential presidency impact Europe?

Kamala Harris is perceived as likely to continue President Biden's policies, which have been seen as positive for Europe, suggesting a stable foreign policy approach in contrast to the perceived chaos associated with a potential Trump presidency.

What are the concerns regarding a potential Trump presidency's impact on foreign policy?

There are concerns that a Trump presidency would bring unpredictable changes to foreign policy, potentially harming transatlantic unity and benefiting Russia's interests, as suggested by his past comments and attitudes.

What is the role of Polish Americans in the upcoming US elections?

Polish Americans, with significant populations in the Midwest and Pennsylvania, could play a crucial role in the elections. However, their voting patterns are similar to typical Americans, and they are likely to vote based on broader issues rather than solely their links to Poland.

How does the current US policy towards Ukraine align with European interests?

The current US policy, which supports Ukraine against Russian aggression, aligns with European interests as it is seen as a strategic move to prevent further expansion by Russia into Europe, particularly towards Poland and the Baltic states.

What are the implications of Trump's comments on Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky?

Trump's comments reflect a transactional view of Ukraine and its president, potentially indicating a willingness to make deals that could be detrimental to Ukraine's interests, such as accepting Russia's territorial gains.

How might a change in US administration affect Poland's diplomatic relations?

A change in US administration could affect Poland's diplomatic relations, as Poland maintains close ties with both Trump and the current US administration. However, Poland's position as sympathetic to both US political camps is seen as advantageous.

What is the importance of a consistent and predictable US foreign policy for Europe?

A consistent and predictable US foreign policy is valued for maintaining strong bilateral ties and ensuring stability in relations. However, the current situation with Russia's aggression has already introduced instability, making the need for a robust policy towards Ukraine crucial.

What are the potential dangers of an inconsistent US foreign policy under a Trump presidency?

An inconsistent US foreign policy could bring instability and unpredictability, which are detrimental to international security, particularly concerning NATO allies and countries like Ukraine that rely on the US for support against Russian aggression.

How does the script suggest Europe should prepare for a potential Trump presidency?

The script implies that Europe should prepare by having a clear strategy towards Russia and considering various diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation, given the unpredictability and potential friendliness of a Trump presidency towards Putin.

What is the role of the US in mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine according to the script?

The script suggests that the US, being directly involved in the conflict through its support for Ukraine, may not be the best candidate to mediate peace. Instead, it proposes the need for a third party, such as China or India, to facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Outlines

00:00

🎤 Election Stakes: U.S. and Its Impact on Europe

The host, Aaron Dman, introduces the upcoming U.S. election, highlighting its importance for Europe, especially Poland. Kamala Harris is seen as a potential stabilizing force, while Donald Trump’s return is feared to disrupt the global order. The conversation focuses on how the U.S. election could reshape the future of transatlantic relations, with foreign policy playing a key role.

05:01

🌍 Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Europe's Concerns

Martin Batki, a Polish MP, and Magdalena Yakubova, a policy analyst, discuss the differing foreign policy approaches of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Batki suggests that a Harris win would maintain stability, whereas a Trump victory could bring chaos, especially regarding Ukraine. Yakubova expresses concern over Trump’s policies, stressing that Eastern Europe benefits greatly from the current transatlantic relationship.

10:02

🗳️ The Polish-American Vote and Its Influence

Yakubova notes that Polish-Americans largely vote similarly to other Americans, but Harris may gain more support due to her attention to Poland in her campaign. The discussion then shifts to the close ties between Poland and both U.S. candidates, with Batki expressing relief that Polish President Duda didn’t directly support Trump’s campaign, as it could have strained relations if the opposite side won.

15:03

⚖️ Foreign Policy: Stability vs. Instability

Batki emphasizes the importance of consistent foreign policy, especially given the instability caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While current U.S. policies have been beneficial, a potential Trump presidency could introduce unpredictability, which is dangerous for Europe. Yakubova and Batki agree that Europe should prepare for any changes, but it's hard to predict Trump's exact approach toward Russia and NATO.

20:07

🛡️ The Role of the U.S. in Global Security

The conversation explores the idea of the U.S. as a guarantor of global security. Batki criticizes Trump’s inconsistent foreign policy, fearing it could destabilize NATO, which is crucial for Polish and European security. Yakubova suggests that other global players like China or India might step in if the U.S. loses its leadership role, but the West must be prepared for any shifts in global power dynamics.

Keywords

💡US Elections

The video focuses on the upcoming US elections, describing them as 'one of the most consequential' in recent history. The discussion revolves around the potential outcomes depending on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins, with significant implications for US foreign policy, particularly in relation to Europe and Poland.

💡Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris, the current Vice President of the United States, is portrayed as a candidate who would bring stability in US foreign policy, particularly toward Europe and Ukraine. The video highlights her stance on defending Ukraine from Russian aggression, suggesting that her leadership could help maintain strong transatlantic ties.

💡Donald Trump

Donald Trump, the former President and candidate in the upcoming US elections, is characterized as a disruptive figure in foreign policy. The video contrasts Trump’s potential return to power with Harris, suggesting his policies could introduce instability, especially regarding NATO and US support for Ukraine, with Trump being perceived as sympathetic to Russia and Vladimir Putin.

💡Foreign Policy

Foreign policy is central to the discussion in the video, particularly regarding how the US elections might shift relations with Europe and its stance on the Ukraine conflict. The script debates whether a Trump or Harris administration would alter the US's approach to NATO, transatlantic alliances, and involvement in Ukraine's defense.

💡Poland

Poland is frequently mentioned as a key player in the European region, especially in relation to its ties with the US. The video touches on Poland's strategic importance in NATO, its close relationship with both Democratic and Republican leaders, and its concerns over US foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine.

💡Ukraine Conflict

The war in Ukraine is a major focus of the video, with discussions centered on the potential consequences of the US election for ongoing support to Ukraine. Kamala Harris is described as a strong supporter of Ukraine, while Trump's stance is seen as more conciliatory towards Russia, with concerns that his policies might undermine Ukraine’s defense efforts.

💡Vladimir Putin

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is portrayed as an aggressor in the video, with references to his invasion of Ukraine and ambitions to extend his influence in Europe, potentially targeting countries like Poland. The script debates the dangers of Trump’s favorable attitude toward Putin, which contrasts with Harris's commitment to countering Russian aggression.

💡Transatlantic Unity

Transatlantic unity refers to the close cooperation between the US and European countries, particularly through NATO. The video discusses how the outcome of the US elections might affect this unity, with Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy posing a potential threat to the alliance, while Harris is seen as someone who would maintain strong ties with Europe.

💡NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is mentioned as a critical element of the security alliance between the US and Europe. The video explores the concern that a Trump presidency might weaken US commitments to NATO, whereas a Harris victory would likely continue the current support for the alliance, particularly in defending against Russian aggression.

💡Polish-Americans

The script highlights the significant population of Polish-Americans, especially in key states like Pennsylvania, and discusses how their voting patterns might influence the outcome of the US elections. The relationship between the US and Poland, and Harris's mentions of Poland, are noted as potential factors that could sway their votes.

Highlights

Aaron Darman hosts the show discussing the upcoming US election and its impact on Europe and Poland.

Kamala Harris is seen as a potential stabilizer in global uncertainty.

Donald Trump is portrayed as a potential disruptor to foreign policy norms.

Poland's foreign policy is a central topic in the US election debate.

Martin Batki, a Polish MP, discusses the potential outcomes of the US election for Poland.

Magdalena Yakubov, a policy analyst, shares her views on the election's implications for Europe.

Concerns are raised over the future of transatlantic unity post-election.

Batki suggests a Trump presidency could be a danger to the current favorable policies towards Europe.

Yakubov agrees with Harris's warning that Putin could target Poland and the Baltic states.

The importance of US support for Ukraine is emphasized by both guests.

Polish Americans' voting patterns are discussed, with a prediction that they may lean towards Harris.

Batki considers the potential benefits for Poland of President Duda's relationship with Trump.

The show debates the value of consistent vs. unpredictable foreign policy.

Yakubov expresses concern over Trump's attitude towards Putin and its global implications.

The discussion touches on Trump's past comments on withdrawing the US from NATO.

Zelensky's recent visit to the US and its strategic importance are analyzed.

The potential impact of the US election on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is considered.

Transcripts

[Music]

good evening and welcome to on the

record I'm Aaron dman filling in for

Adam

yaser in just over a month America goes

to the polls in what is shaping up to be

one of the most consequential us

elections in recent history on one hand

there are hopes carela Harris would

deliver stability at a time of global

and domestic uncertainty on the other

Donald Trump is being vaunted as the

former president who plans to tear up

the rule book once again for Europe and

Poland foreign policy is at the heart of

this debate so how will November's

election change the game for the region

on the record Europe maintains it will

keep a strong relationship with the US

regardless of what happens but off the

Record it's clear serious concerns

remain over the future of transatlantic

Unity now the election campaign has been

in full flight this week and again

Poland was a Hot Topic let's take a

listen history has shown us if we allow

aggressors like Putin to take land with

impunity they keep going and Putin could

set its sights on Poland the Baltic

states and other NATO allies the United

States cannot and should not isolate

ourselves from the rest of the world

isolation is not

insolation so then the United States

supports Ukraine not out of Charity but

because it is in our strategic interest

we will continue to provide the security

assistance Ukraine needs to succeed on

the

battlefield here to discuss all of this

right here in the studio is Martin batki

current polish MP of the Civic Coalition

a liberal and Centrist party the biggest

of the ruling Block in Poland and former

polish ambassador to Canada good evening

good evening and also joining me is

Magdalena yakubova who is a vice

president at the rubla foundation and

has previously served as the Director of

operations at the US Think Tank Center

for European policy analyst thank you

for taking the time good evening happy

to be here Mr batki I want to start with

you the perception is that carela Harris

will provide a stable foreign policy

response while Donald Trump equals chaos

is it as simple as that and does that

mean Europe is desperate for Harris

win I would say it's a little bit

simplistic uh view but yes uh I presume

that if Kamala Harris wins she will um

continue most of uh President Biden's

policies which were generally very

positive to Europe and especially to our

region whereas um for sure

um former president Trump if he wins

will deliver a change as well as in uh

foreign policy as well as in uh in

domestic uh

policies uh and change is always um

uh a danger if the previous policy is

quite all right which I think the the

Biden's policy is quite all right so is

a potential Trump change a

danger it might be because what we heard

especially in his running mates uh Mr

V's speech and proposal for uh so-called

peace in Ukraine is

basically uh a surrender to two main uh

Putin's demands which is uh I Putin

Russia keep all the lands I conquered

and secondly and maybe even more

importantly for us uh Ukraine will never

join uh Western structures European

union and NATO that's that's basically

uh delivering Putin his

goals Magdalen just on the last day as

we heard in that intro CA Harris has

again warned that Vladimir Putin could

quote set his sights on Poland and the

Baltic states if he is allowed to win in

Ukraine is she right is that what you

make of of what's happening in the

region too I I very much agree with um

Miss Harris uh regarding that idea that

if Putin is not stopped he will go even

further and take advantage of a weaker

spots of of the West so um that's very

much possible and the threat would

definitely grow uh if the peace talks or

uh or if there's any progress in the War

uh in the battlefield in Ukraine do you

agree with um Mr bat's comments that

there might be a danger with the Trump

presidency when it comes to the war in

Ukraine but also for the

region of course uh we had Vis Secret

inside that uh that I represent here is

we we see that there is a a difference

in the attitude uh uh between the

candidates of course Mr Trump I'm not

saying that he's bringing chaos but the

policies as uh as Mr bosski also

confirmed will be different there will

be a change and the policy now ongoing

Democrats uh policies towards the region

is quite favorable and we benefit a lot

on this transatlantic bond that we saw

far or have if if this is Poland or if

these are other countries in the region

both the btic Baltic states or Romania

we all are in the same basket of being

in a in a strong bond with uh with the

US uh

Partners I want to ask you about the

number of polls in the US too because

there are a lot of them 8.8 million

polish Americans about 3 million in the

midwest 800,000 in Pennsylvania what do

you think will be top of mind for them

when voting given their links to Poland

and the

region the links to Poland they don't

change much of their attitude uh in in

many researches that have been done the

their uh type of the way they vote is

very similar to the typical Americans uh

um voting right they they share the same

problems they share the same uh

successes uh in politics have the same

similar idea however they are it's easy

to to foresee how they vote uh therefore

I think that um Kamala Harris would

benefit a little more from uh from votes

from polish uh minorities do you think

she'll she'll get

it uh I I think she would get those

votes because uh because she is at least

very um she's mentioning Poland this is

this is important for polls whom so far

have been IGN ignored in a sense uh in

terms of uh of

Elections uh and now this is very

important the the difference in between

the votes between the candidates is so

narrow that every vote counts Mr bazazi

could the argument be made that Poland

is actually in a good position when it

comes to this election I mean you've got

president Andre studa seemingly quite

close with Trump he was going to appear

uh reportedly at a rally with Trump and

then your governing Coalition on the

other side of the aisle is it a

diplomatic win-win whoever is

President you know I I think that the

the quite um close ties between

President Duda and and uh former

president Trump are not bad uh for

Polish interest because that might

soften a little bit this um um uh trade

manner of uh Trump's foreign policy uh

and it could somehow help Poland

although I think it's good that

President Duda was

not um holding um you know uh rally

political rally and election rally

together with uh uh candidate Trump

because that would be the the direct

involvement in US election campaign

which I think would would not be uh

particularly wise would you have seen

that as unacceptable from someone of his

standing as a president of a country

yeah I think it it it would be um at

least strange for you know diplomatic

standards uh and uh it would cost us I

mean

Poland uh if uh the opposite side uh

would win but uh saying that I I really

think that

uh contrary to to Ukraine which

obviously is uh very unpopular in uh

Trump circles and also with himself uh

what he stated many times uh Poland is

somehow uh sympathetic to both camps in

in the US which is good and

it's fundamentally it is good that

polish and Central Europe security is

the topic of this election this is

probably

more credit to to Mrs Harris uh she

mentioned that more often but uh it's

good that this is the topic of the US

elections between because this is the

still the only Western superpower uh

which is we we like it or not the

guarantee of our security given your

background as an ambassador I'm

interested to look into sort of the

concept of foreign policy I mean

consistent and predictable foreign

policy is often seen as this Benchmark

for strong bilateral ties keep it boring

because then everyone knows what you're

up to but do you see an environment

where the foreign policy of major

superpowers like the US for example

under a trump presidency becomes

inconsistent and unpredictable and what

does that do to the

world yeah uh you know

um the stability of relations Is a

value but Frankly Speaking since

February

2022 nothing is stable in our part of

the world because of Putin so uh when

you have actually a good policy which is

uh to help Ukraine win this war it's not

ideal policy because I for example very

much uh uh criticize the Restriction

restrictions which US imposes on use of

its uh Weaponry for

Ukraine uh but but it's a good policy u

i mean both from uh European NATO

members and especially from from us side

uh then uh changing that could

bring um instability and danger of

unknown uh future in terms of security

which always this is a bad bad sign

therefore I U strongly uh hope that

after us elections the um United States

policy toward NATO toward its allies and

toward Ukraine will change uh not much

and Magdalena just lastly for the

segment can I ask you is it even

possible for Europe to prepare itself

for someone like Trump I mean you this

is a guy who talks about Russ quote

obliterating Ukraine and is uh by his

own admission quite cozy with Vladimir

Putin can Europe be prepared for

something like that or should Europe be

worried so of course we can prepare for

that um I'm I mean many scholars think

tanks already are already ready but it's

hard it's it's hard and we don't know

right but um uh but still I think that

something that worries

um the opinion public all over the world

most is the attitude of Mr Trump towards

Mr Putin and this that this is let's say

a little friendly or uh more

transactional uh attitude is not um um

is easy to be provisioned and E easy to

be responded in a sense there are

different diplomatic also uh efforts

that can be taken in advance or later

pre-planned uh so to me a response would

be that Europe specifically the EU

countries should have the idea what to

do with Russia and in this way um help

um kind of stabilize the situation or

the attitude of Mr Trump uh and the way

he acts towards Russia now talking of

Vladimir Putin let's take a look into

the specific question of Ukraine when it

comes to the US election and how this is

all playing out on the

ground as Ukraine continues to seek

additional help from its allies the

country's President Vladimir zalinski

paid a recent visit to the state of

Pennsylvania on the sidelines of the

United Nations General

Assembly cinski is the greatest salesman

in history every time he comes into the

country he walks away with $60 billion

[Applause]

billion walks in with $60 billion he

wants them to he wants them to win this

election so

badly Trump's comments follow zelinsky's

visit to the Scranton Army ammunition

plant in

Pennsylvania Please Mr President can you

talk to us now the main goal of

zelinsky's US tour was to present his

comprehensive Victory plan to President

Biden lawmakers and international

Partners Putin has broken so many many

International norms and rules that he

want stop on his own Russia can only be

forced into peace and that is exactly

what's needed zelinsky's visit has paid

off so far late on Thursday Biden

announced a sizable security assistance

package for Ukraine right now we have to

strengthen Ukraine's position on the

battlefield and that's why today I'm

proud to announce a new $2.4 billion

package of security assistance earlier

this week the White House announced the

authorization of a new military aid

package for Ukraine war 375 million us

the package includes for the first time

a medium-range Glide bomb known as The

Joint standoff weapon compatible with

F-16 fighter

jets now magdalina I want to start with

you now because I saw you giggle a

little bit when Donald Trump made that

comment about Vladimir zalinski being a

Salesman what does that type of comment

tell us about how Trump views Ukraine

and the war in this

region uh it's it's been a very

populistic comment that's why I was I

was so much uh giggling uh uh the truth

is like um Mr Trump sees it as um as as

a kind of a a a moment where he can be a

star and he can finish up and rule the

world and you know finish up the war

being this um this person who makes

America great again you know lead uh so

this geopolitical factor is of course in

his uh in his opinion very important to

have America or us being again like the

the the main actor of uh on the on this

world stage but um this doesn't change

the the fact that uh um Mr this attitude

is uh is very transactional and may

bring some uh not very positive uh

especially for Ukraine not very positive

outcomes now Mr batki when we look at

the election in the US and obviously

Trump makes a comment like that but as

we sit here talking about the potential

Fallout of the election all the things

that could happen in this region do you

think Americans actually care if the US

is involved in Ukraine in Europe or not

you know it's always uh the question who

you ask uh because there are those who

care and there are many those

who don't care that much of course maybe

two years ago when this fullscale war

started uh Ukraine had much more

sympathy in in us than it has now and it

was not such a partisan issue as it is

now

unfortunately now it has changed because

also of the election campaign because of

the I would say the the psychological

hostility of trump toward Ukraine which

I think dates back to to the to his

um uh consistent view that Ukraine

somehow helped uh son of President

Biden um when he uh made uh his

businesses there in in in Ukraine so the

problem with Trump is that I don't see

he has consistent world view or uh

principles of his foreign policy he's

fascinated by

Putin uh he uh likes to be with strong

leaders like Kim zun or uh other strong

men in the world it's it's

um on on the Democratic ticket

you you don't have to love what you get

but you know what you get with Trump

there will be a change how um deep of a

change we don't know but I must add one

more

thing the in the first Trump uh

Administration foreign policy was

run

by they were called calling them Elder

Statesmen those who were traditional

establishment Republicans in foreign

policy

for um decades uh General matis John

Bolton etc etc I think it it is going to

change if Trump wins because all of them

at the end of their tenure with him or

after his term um denounced him and said

that he's not

um responsible and serious uh policy

maker so I think it will be quite

difficult uh to predict a bunch of

people who will run US security and

foreign policy which again as we

mentioned before brings a factor of

instability to the table which is not

good you mentioned that Trump likes to

Get Cozy with strongman Kim jongan in

North Korea for example uh and and her

breth Magdalena said the word autocrats

do you believe that someone like Kim

Jong-un like Vladimir Putin is an

autocrat you know some say that Trump

wants to um please Putin with the

outcome of the Ukraine war to take him

back from Alliance with China which of

course is geopolitically the main uh

World rival for for us I don't believe

this is the case I believe that in

Trump's um uh world view this is just oh

I will I will bring peace at all costs

and concentrate on foreign policy if

Trump has any foreign policy instincts

this is I don't care about the world uh

he he want it it is on the record from

his former advisers he wanted to

withdraw or contemplated to withdraw us

from from NATO for us with our

geostrategic um geography

under the long shadow of Russia it's

it's dangerous yes or no is Vladimir

Putin an

autocrat of course of course Magdalena I

want to ask you about this renewed talk

about peace so to try and get Russia and

Ukraine at the same table Russia doesn't

seem to want to come to the table now

where too next from here does the US

play a role in mediating that peace and

does the US election then impact what

that role looks like because Trump and

CA Harris have such different views

where do we go from here

it's a it's a difficult uh question now

who would be the because we need the

third party right who would push uh Mr

Putin to to sit down at this table to

who would make sure that uh Mr zalinski

has this feeling that he can really

negotiate in the sense that there is a a

a pool of of solutions that can be taken

at the table so we need this third party

party and that would not probably be us

this is because us is engaged in the um

in the in the war this is the NATO of

course Alliance uh that that is involved

uh so um admittedly there are a few

candidates China wants to be one of

those uh which is also not uh not the

best idea but um but also um such a such

a country as as India has its uh reasons

to to play a role in this um in this

let's

say play of uh of uh of

geopolitical um

um connections right so hopefully there

will be we will agree finally and uh and

find a a global so partner that uh that

could gather this uh this round table

where we can sit down and talk um it is

important and now very crucial to have

Mr Putin at that table not to repeat the

I'm sorry to say a failure from

Switzerland um in in June a long road to

come magdalina yakobov and matchin batki

thank you again for your time thank you

thank you and good night and that's on

the record for tonight thank you for

watching us here on TVP world I'm Aaron

Darman goodbye for now

[Music]