🌟 Bitcoin Makes History with Dual Milestones! 🚀
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses recent developments in the Bitcoin market, highlighting two historic milestones: the demand from accumulation addresses exceeding miner supply for the first time and the ATR model showing no sell signals for 25 weeks, a record. It also touches on macroeconomic factors like CPI data and its impact on markets, institutional investments in Bitcoin, and the upcoming launch of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong. The speaker emphasizes the strength of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge despite market volatility.
Takeaways
- 📈 Bitcoin's recent price volatility is part of its nature, and despite short-term fluctuations, it remains a significant focus for investors and institutions.
- 💹 The CPI data release indicating rising inflation has had a mixed impact on the markets, with some sectors like S&P 500 experiencing a downturn, while Bitcoin momentarily fell but quickly rebounded.
- 🏦 Institutions continue to show strong interest in Bitcoin, with reports of BlackRock and Fidelity increasing their Bitcoin holdings, signaling a positive long-term outlook.
- 🌏 Hong Kong is set to approve Bitcoin ETFs, further legitimizing and expanding the cryptocurrency market, with the first ETF expected to be trading soon.
- 📉 Grayscale Investments has seen a significant outflow of Bitcoin, but this is seen as a temporary phase, with the market expected to stabilize as demand remains strong.
- 🔒 70% of Bitcoin is held for over a year, indicating a strong presence of long-term investors and a healthy market structure.
- 📊 The ATR model, which has historically been accurate 91.67% of the time, has not given a sell signal for Bitcoin for 25 weeks, an unprecedented streak in its history dating back to 2010.
- 🚀 Demand from accumulation addresses is exceeding the supply from miners, a historic first that suggests an increasingly bullish market for Bitcoin.
- 💡 The current market dynamics, including diminishing supply and increasing demand, set the stage for a potentially explosive growth in Bitcoin's value.
- 🌐 Despite some skepticism from entities like Deutsche Bank, the overall trend points to a positive future for Bitcoin, with major institutional investments and regulatory developments supporting its growth.
Q & A
What are the two historic Bitcoin milestones mentioned in the transcript?
-The two historic Bitcoin milestones mentioned are the demand from accumulation addresses exceeding the supply from miners for the first time in history, and the ATR model showing Bitcoin going 25 weeks without a sell signal, which is also a first in its history.
How has the recent CPI data release impacted the markets and Bitcoin?
-The recent CPI data release showed a year-over-year increase of 3.8%, higher than the forecast of 3.7%, which has caused the markets to tank, including a temporary drop in Bitcoin's price. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded as it is considered an inflation hedge.
What is the significance of Hong Kong potentially approving Bitcoin ETFs?
-The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is significant as it would make the city one of the first to offer such financial products, potentially attracting more institutional investment and increasing the legitimacy and accessibility of Bitcoin for a broader investor base.
What does the report from Signal Advisers indicate about institutional interest in Bitcoin?
-The report from Signal Advisers indicates that institutional interest in Bitcoin is growing, as they own 20,571 shares of BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF, suggesting that more firms are investing in Bitcoin as they see it as a valuable asset.
Why is the fact that 70% of Bitcoin is held for over a year considered positive for the market?
-The fact that 70% of Bitcoin is held for over a year indicates a strong presence of long-term investors, which is generally seen as a positive sign for the market's stability and growth, as it suggests a belief in the asset's long-term value.
What is the significance of the recent spot ETF volume being near an all-time high?
-The spot ETF volume being near an all-time high indicates increased demand and interest in Bitcoin, as spot ETFs allow investors to trade the actual Bitcoin asset directly, rather than through futures contracts, which can be more volatile.
What does the Deutsche Bank report suggest about the future of Bitcoin?
-The Deutsche Bank report suggests a divided opinion on Bitcoin's future, with one-third of respondents expecting the price to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year. However, the report also highlights that the asset is still early in its adoption and that many are looking for serious alpha in the market.
How does the Bank of England launching an Instagram account relate to Bitcoin?
-The Bank of England launching an Instagram account is seen as a signal to buy Bitcoin by some, as it is viewed as a traditional financial institution adapting to modern, more social media-oriented platforms, which could be interpreted as a sign of increasing acceptance and integration of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world.
What is the significance of the ATR model's 25-week streak without a sell signal for Bitcoin?
-The 25-week streak without a sell signal from the ATR model, which is known to be correct 91.67% of the time, indicates a strong bullish trend for Bitcoin. This is historically unprecedented and suggests a continued positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
What is the current status of Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings?
-Grayscale has experienced a significant reduction in its Bitcoin holdings, having bled over 303,000 Bitcoin. This is expected to continue with an estimated 100,000 more Bitcoin potentially being sold off in the next three months.
What is the significance of the upcoming 'having' event mentioned in the transcript?
-The 'having' event is a reference to an anticipated price increase of Bitcoin following a significant event or milestone. The speaker expects this event to occur within nine days and suggests that it will lead to a significant rise in Bitcoin's price.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin's Rocky Road and Historic Milestones
The speaker begins by acknowledging the recent volatility in the Bitcoin market, describing it as a 'rocky road.' Despite this, they express excitement about two historic milestones related to Bitcoin that have never been seen before. The discussion then shifts to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its impact on the market, highlighting that although the government's measurement methods are questionable, market trends are influenced by such data. The speaker also mentions the rebound of Bitcoin after a brief dip, emphasizing its role as an inflation hedge. Furthermore, they touch upon the increasing interest of institutions in Bitcoin, with specific mention of Hong Kong's upcoming crypto regulations and the growing influence of Grayscale and other firms in the Bitcoin ETF space.
🌐 Global Developments and Bitcoin ETFs
This paragraph delves into global financial developments, particularly focusing on the first Bitcoin ETF approval in Hong Kong and the anticipation of trading commencing shortly after. The speaker emphasizes the urgency of Hong Kong's regulatory body to approve these ETFs and the potential influx of capital from the region. The narrative then shifts to discuss Grayscale's current position, noting the significant outflow of Bitcoin from the fund. Despite this, the speaker remains optimistic, highlighting the strong demand for Bitcoin and the zero outflow days experienced by Fidelity and Grayscale, indicating a robust investor interest. The paragraph also covers the long-term holding trends in Bitcoin wallets, the anticipation of more institutional investments, and the positive outlook for Bitcoin's price despite market fluctuations.
📊 Market Analysis and Investor Sentiment
The speaker provides an analysis of the ETF flows, highlighting the recent trends and the impact of institutional buying on the Bitcoin market. They discuss the role of BlackRock and Grayscale in the ETF space, and how their actions affect the overall market sentiment. The paragraph also includes a discussion on the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the implications of such a move on the market, particularly how it could lead to increased investment in risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the speaker mentions the Bank of England's new Instagram account as a signal for potential investors. The paragraph concludes with a look at the historic demand for Bitcoin, which is now exceeding the supply from miners, indicating a bullish market ahead.
🚀 Unprecedented Demand and Bitcoin's Future
In the final paragraph, the speaker discusses the unprecedented demand for Bitcoin, as evidenced by the new demand from accumulation addresses surpassing the supply from miners. They highlight this as a historic event and predict a parabolic increase in Bitcoin's value. The speaker reiterates the theme of diminishing supply and increasing adoption, which they believe will lead to a spectacular bull market for Bitcoin. They also mention the ATR model, which has not given a sell signal for 25 weeks, a historic duration, and suggest that this model, with a high accuracy rate, indicates a strong upward trend for Bitcoin. The speaker concludes by dismissing the bearish predictions from some financial institutions and reiterates the positive outlook for Bitcoin, especially considering the upcoming events and the interest from major players like Hong Kong and China.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡CPI
💡ETFs
💡Inflation
💡Hong Kong
💡Grayscale
💡Deutsche Bank
💡Fidelity
💡Macro
💡Accumulation Addresses
💡ATR Model
Highlights
Bitcoin's recent price volatility is part of its nature, offering buying opportunities.
Two historic Bitcoin milestones are being discussed, which have never been seen before.
CPI data release and its impact on markets, including Bitcoin, is a topic of discussion.
Institutions are doubling down on Bitcoin, with reports of SEC owning shares in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.
Hong Kong is expected to approve Bitcoin ETFs, potentially impacting the market.
Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings are under 40%, indicating a significant shift in the market.
70% of Bitcoin is held for over a year, showing long-term investor commitment.
BlackRock and Fidelity have accumulated a large amount of Bitcoin with no outflows.
Deutsche Bank's survey suggests分歧 on Bitcoin's future value, with some expecting a drop below $20,000.
The potential for interest rate cuts and their impact on cash value, leading to increased demand for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge, despite market fluctuations.
The significance of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and its potential impact on price.
The Bank of England launching an Instagram account, seen as a signal for Bitcoin investment.
ETF flows and their influence on Bitcoin's price, with a focus on BlackRock and Grayscale.
Demand from accumulation addresses exceeding miner supply for the first time in Bitcoin's history.
The ATR model indicates a continuation of the Bitcoin bull market with no sell signals for 25 weeks.
Transcripts
hello everybody Welcome in this one it's
been it's been a rocky road over the
past couple of days with Bitcoin but
that's what Bitcoin does today we're
going to uncover two historic Bitcoin
Milestones that the world has never seen
before and you've never seen it before
because it's Unique content that's what
we do here but first we got to talk
about the CPI shocks to talk about oil
got to talk about some institutions
doubling down what else do we got uh
Hong Kong is coming crypto practor
chiropractor in the house at grayscale
how they're under 40% already how 70% of
Bitcoin is locked Deutsche Bank some
dreams and some crazy charts at the very
end so make sure you stay tuned for that
and uh once of all thank you pancake
Panda and thank you to the mods in the
chat let's jump in and make sure I got
everything working and shout out to
patreon we have dark glass patreon
member here the info has made me more
money Way Beyond Way Beyond the course
of the subscription thank you so much
dark class for being part of the family
Bitcoin only playlist is here excuse me
talking too much um and what's crazy T
minus 9 days 6 hours 17 minutes to go
and people are saying 20th of April Etc
well if you go to the official Bitcoin
having clock the block clock this is Max
Shane's personal clock here for double
verification one week 2 days 11 hours so
this is about four or five hours
different to the previous one but
again it's going to be crazy that'll be
Circa Friday as I promised as well a
couple weeks ago Friday it'll be a
Friday and it'll be an exciting Friday
wherever you are in the world now
breaking news let's do get the macro
stuff out of the way cuz the reason do
this is because of macro macro and
crypto are completely integrated uh this
is from markets and
Mayhem us CPI data was released but who
really cares because the government
doesn't know how to measure stuff anyway
but anyway markets do look at it you can
see that the actual CPI year of year is
3 and a half% they forecast at 3.4%
previous at 3.2% that means the trend is
going up that scares the markets
year-over-year actual 3.8% forecast 3.7
% and month of a month 0.4% forecast
0.3% again 0.1% Delta across all the
measurements and it doesn't matter how
you measure it because the way they
measure it is looking back about a year
of data not accurate data today so again
it's all silliness but the markets did
respond markets tanked S&P 500 fell
people wondering why well we like that
because that gives us a chance to buy
but the crazy thing is Right Bitcoin
fell too but only briefly and then
rebounded because they're probably
wicking out some leverage Longs but
remember everybody irony is not lost on
me okay inflation prints hot Bitcoin
goes down okay Bitcoin is the inflation
hedge has been since the beginning of
time even though people say it doesn't
really work at that it has been for a
long time and and always will be because
it's hard it doesn't debase and this is
what drives CPI this is what drives
inflation gasoline prices 40% of the CPI
is driven by gasoline fuel because
everything is made of fuel Plastics
water bottles tires on cars the stuff to
get around it's all there anyway this is
a funny funny tweet as well from Bitcoin
Monger so let me get the straet you are
selling the greatest inflation hedge
that ever existed after inflation comes
in hotter than expected again it makes
no
sense but there's a few things in this
video that will make no sense either but
we understand how to interpret the
signals and the data and that's what we
do here now let's talk about this more
institutions are in another one just
came in literally an hour ago less but
uh signal advisers reports that with the
SEC that they own
20571 shares of Black Rock Spot Bitcoin
ETF and there's a lot more coming ladies
and gentlemen not just them every day
because we're past that 90-day window
which I covered last week more firms are
going to come in okay this is early
early we're going up from here but
there's more guess who else is coming
and has a lot more money than some of
these firms Hong Kong this from Bitcoin
archive and bitcoin news Hong Kong to
approve Bitcoin ETFs next week from
Reuters and Hong Kong's sfc to approve
the first Bitcoin ETF by April 15th
that's 5 days from now and it looks like
they will be trading two weeks later on
the stock exchange per 10-cent news
so obviously Hong Kong has a sense of
urgency they know they need to be in
before the having which is the 19th or
20th of April and they're going to do
that when they start trading I don't
know but they will need to be seated so
the way these funds work is they buy
their bags and Advance when they know
it's cheap so they can issue shares
after the fact expect Hong Kong money to
flow in if it's not already in the next
5 days that's how it works now another
crazy news too grayscale is now under
40% compared to all the nine new ETFs of
the total bag and this is from the
Block they are now bleeding bleeding so
fast and I know people are frustrated
they saying
how come this just keeps on bleeding
they've lost half their
Bitcoin and I'll say it again and I hope
people get this because I've said it a
hundred times but people still
forget I don't know why but here it is
okay in simple
terms I thought half maybe 40% of gbtc
was all the speculators that did the
cash and carry trade back in 2020
sometimes even before what that meant
was they could
literally uh buy Bitcoin
spot and sell the Bitcoin shares until
the shares went under water instead of
selling at a discount that's what caused
a huge part of the problem in the bare
market last time around that cash and
carry trade looks like it was massive
more probably half than the actual gbtc
so of the 641 th000 Bitcoin that were in
there at the beginning of the year
probably 320,000 of them were tied to
this trade maybe even more because the
selling is too extreme to be just people
moving to a cheaper uh fund rate now I
do believe
between I don't know exactly but
probably 46 maximum will be this Cash
and Carry trade that means grayscale
will probably dump another 100,000
Bitcoin over the next 3 months
potentially they've lost over 300,000
already another 100,000 to go so we are
at the end of the most serious bleed but
we're still seeing some bad days so
beware of that but the positive news
about this is Bitcoin is absorbing it
all and ibit and Fidelity have had zero
outflow days that shows you how the
demand is so strong and
remember the Chinese are coming and
institutions are coming all right and
there's only going to be 450 Bitcoin a
day to go around there's not enough
nowhere near enough I'm working on a
separate analysis that shows you that
whole perspective in simple charts so
stay tuned for that it'll be out before
the weekend now that's the grayscale
dumpage news sorry people are upset but
remember as well all
right we are expecting a $42,000 bitcoin
price last year at the time of the
having we are basically 70,000 now we're
30,000 higher than we expected we would
be and that's all because of these
ETFs and these ETFs have sucked in a ton
of money and all the dumpage from
grayscale that is extremely positive
news when you interpret all the data now
other news too 70% of Bitcoin is now
held for one year plus despite all of
the changes there were a lot of
long-term holder wallets in this
grayscale fund which were out but still
when you look at all the wallets 70%
still hold more than one year 24% have 1
to 12 months of holding and 7% less than
1 month these are the tourists people
foaming in fooing in people didn't make
it and that's just how it is in terms of
fidelity and black rock which are the
two big players in this spot ETF you can
see here this is from hey Apollo Black
Rock and Fidelity have stacked 416,000
Bitcoin with zero days of outflow zero
okay big time that is huge just want
that to sink in for a second also spot
ETF spot volume is near an alltime high
before the ETFs were there there was a
lot of Futures action now it's a lot of
spot action which is also very very good
that impacts a lot of things too now
there some fun news that was published
in Bloomberg was a Deutsche Bank report
a survey and this is kind of interesting
it's kind of from different parts of the
world but we are so early that's the big
message here every buddy people are
divided still over Bitcoin staying power
onethird expect the largest
cryptocurrency to slide below $20,000 by
the end of the year according to
Deutsche Bank survey I would love to
see where they do these surveys um maybe
they go into a zoo and say hey throw a
dart at this survey form and see what
hits all right Bitcoin we will never see
$20,000 again I think that's 99% certain
there's always a 1% chance it could go
to zero but it's highly unlikely
especially given the money and again I
don't even want to spend any more time
with this but that is crazy maybe
somebody's hoping for that sub $20,000
Bitcoin because they missed the train
it' be nice if trains could just go in
reverse and come back and pick you up
after you miss them but that's not how
it works and what's also crazy we know
rate cuts are happening we know the FED
doesn't control CPI but State Street did
say yesterday they do believe there will
be at least four Cuts 150 basis points
this year and they do believe contrary
to most experts on Wall Street they do
believe the FED will have to cut by June
or July at the latest but when that
happens there's 6.11 trillion dollars on
the
sidelines that is record level and basic
math is interest Cuts Plus inflation
increasing means cash is trash all right
what people are going to do when they
see these rate Cuts not only will
highrisk disruptive stocks go to the
moon but this cash will come into the
market and seek Alpha which it'll go
into risk assets like Bitcoin and other
ones too so it's a perfect setup that's
what I'm basically trying to say and
thank you so much as well Bora Bora 2030
woohoo um now other breaking news for
everybody in team UK out there Bank of
England launch an Instagram account and
this is from Jordan warer who says this
is your signal to buy a
Bitcoin when when a central bank does
something crazy like this is kind of
funny so let's get into all the ETF flow
charts real quick and then we'll talk
about the two historic things that have
never happened in the history of the
world and I promise you you've never
seen this before first of all well one
of the charts definitely you've never
seen before um let's look at the ETF
flows we remember back to Orange here on
grayscale 155 million after a nasty day
the day before on Monday of 303 million
so it's half not too bad we'll check out
the trend lines in a minute but Black
Rock saved the day in taking in about
130 million but that being said we are
still negative 19 million but that did
not matter there's other people buying
Bitcoin right now it's not just these
ETFs it's people foming in people dcing
in and that's sucking up the demand real
fast because those that know the having
is coming real soon in those nine days
also when you look at the spot Bitcoin
ETF money flow you can see here Black
Rock up grayscale up we like those two
things to be up not not the grayscale
down so we'll see if that dump will
continue what's also interesting and if
I was a betting man which sometimes I am
I would say Fidelity is going to have a
good day today because Fidelity had two
quiet days and that rarely happens so
watch watch this now we are still a
little bit negative on the money flow
that will be positive today I'm pretty
certain of that in addition you can see
how small it is it's almost break even
it's negligible and the trend line the
trend line is now down for the flows
into the ETFs it's a quiet patch we had
a huge amount of action like in 61
trading days this thing has been out but
between day 20 and day 43 we had a ton
of money coming in including that 1.05
billion
day in one day we haven't had any big
days lately so we'll see if the the
normies figure out that this having is
coming and Bitcoin goes up after the
having in a big way we'll see if they'll
figure that out and there's not many
like nine days left what is that
what technically only seven trading days
left for this ETF as well so we'll watch
what happens and I do expect Hong Kong
to seed their bags real soon also 36
billion in the 9u ETFs massive amount of
money reminder again my target my target
into the
ETFs was 50 billion for the year we're
now nearly over two-thirds the way there
Bonkers and is 520,000 Bitcoin in these
new ETFs 266,000 in Black Rock alone
that's big 150 Plus in Fidelity etc etc
and don't discount the smaller guys like
Arc Etc they do add up quite
substantially
and our friends at grayscale have bled
over 303,000 Bitcoin and this is the
dumpage chart we're above Trend again we
got to stay above that pink purpley line
um and we were yesterday hopefully again
today and then the rest of the ETFs can
carry the water for the whole gang and
the amount of Bitcoin that left the
system yes were added to the system
yesterday was 282
Bitcoin the day before 3,100 and the day
before that 3,00 are taken out of the
system oh I forgot to check on Mr 100's
wallet bear with me one second I want
cuz he hasn't bought in 5 days and I'm
thinking hu what's going on here hold on
a
second um completely forgot to check I
check it every day and Mr 100 still has
not purchased since the 4th of April six
days ago we'll see maybe their bags are
full maybe they're waiting for a big dip
maybe they just need more cash or maybe
they took a vacation we don't know
anyway Bitcoin chart time these are the
two things that I want you to know first
of all super interesting one from crypto
Quant and new demand for Bitcoin from
accumulation addresses is now exceeding
the supply from miners for the first
time in history okay and it's about to
go parabolic the demand from permanent
holders again has absolutely smashed the
issuance and we're going to go a lot lot
higher this is what I've been talking
about for nearly a year and a half and
Shout out as well to the rational route
I've talk about diminishing Supply first
time ever we have a bull market we're
going into diminishing Supply that's
what this chart says this is another
visual of what I've been talking about
for a year and a half thank you to the
rational root as well put this chart
together that blue arrow shows you where
the actual Supply will be going the
available Supply is is going down and to
the
right and the adoption is going up and
to the right and we're going into a
having it's going to be spectacular I
promise you that okay there's very few
things in life you can be completely
sure of this is one of them for sure now
one other thing that's historic and this
model goes all the way back to the year
2010 it's the ATR model I was just
playing with it today looking at the
weekly chart for Bitcoin right never
before in the history of this chart and
I went back and analyzed it have we ever
gone 25 weeks without any sell signal
the highest ever we did before was 12
weeks this puppy on the weekly Bitcoin
chart has gone without a sell signal for
nearly half a year and this model is
right 91.67% of the time which is pretty
staggering tells you when to when to buy
and when to sell like clockwork but this
is kind of
bunkers again I always say this time is
different nearly half a year zero cell
signals and what happens if we don't get
any cell signals for the next six
months theoretically it's possible
considering the hardness of this asset
and the diminishing Supply and reminder
Hong Kong isn't even here yet China and
they are looking for serious Alpha
but you know if you're Deutsche Bank you
know it's going to 20,000 so you're
going to be just fine these clowns here
so with that everybody hope you enjoy
the show this is a stunning chart right
there I'll tweet this out later as well
and share it on patreon and walk you
through some other interesting
statistics which is Bonkers so thank you
all for coming thank you to the mods in
the chat hope you enjoyed the show today
will be I've got some development
meetings today so I will not be doing a
second video I will be working but not
on another video so thank you all for
coming thanks as well Sean donnley and
K8 and T andd Tesla she must be still
off in her birthday celebrations proba
playing golf thank you all for coming
and shout out to mob Bots and who I miss
Bora Bora 2030 of course one more time
I'll see you all later
[Music]
bye-bye
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