Biden Administration in Panic Mode as This Just Crashed 50%
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the Biden Administration's concerns over the US economy, particularly the impact of the Fed's rate decisions on economic growth. It highlights the recent ISM data, which, despite showing slight expansion in manufacturing, indicates underlying issues such as continuing job cuts and shrinking order backlogs. The video also explores the relationship between the US dollar, Fed policy, and manufacturing activity, suggesting that a strong dollar could potentially lead to rate cuts. Additionally, it features Power Metals Corp, a Canadian mining company with potential for significant stock growth, emphasizing the importance of conducting personal research before investing.
Takeaways
- 📉 The Biden Administration is reportedly in a state of panic due to a significant economic indicator's decline.
- 💹 The US economy faces potential devastation if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates as expected.
- 🤔 There is uncertainty regarding whether President Biden can maintain his position before the upcoming elections if the economy does not improve.
- 📈 The June Fed rate cut odds have dipped below 50% following strong ISM data, which is a setback for the Biden administration's plans.
- 🏭 US manufacturing has slightly expanded but this comes after 16 consecutive months of contraction, signaling underlying issues.
- 📊 New orders for manufacturers are critical and although there is a slight increase, employment figures suggest ongoing layoffs.
- 🔄 The backlog of orders continues to contract, which may lead to further workforce reductions in the manufacturing sector.
- 📈 Retailer inventories are high, but this does not necessarily indicate a healthy economy or demand.
- 💼 The labor market is a key factor to watch, as continued claims rising may indicate a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
- 🌐 Rising oil and raw material costs, along with increased transportation rates, are contributing to higher production costs for manufacturers.
- 💲 The strength of the US dollar could potentially influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, offering a glimmer of hope for the Biden administration.
Q & A
What is the main concern for the Biden Administration mentioned in the transcript?
-The main concern for the Biden Administration mentioned is the potential negative impact on the US economy due to the Fed rate cut odds dropping below 50% after strong ISM data, which could be problematic for their plans before the November elections.
How does the transcript suggest the market reacted to the June Fed rate cut odds dipping below 50%?
-The transcript suggests that the market reacted by adjusting the fed easing expectations for the year, with swap contracts pricing in fewer than 65 basis points, indicating a reduced likelihood of multiple rate cuts before the elections.
What was the significance of the ISM manufacturing PMI for March according to the transcript?
-The ISM manufacturing PMI for March was significant because it exceeded all estimates in the Bloomberg survey, leading to a market reaction where bond yields increased and the possibility of a Fed rate cut was questioned.
What does the transcript imply about the current state of the US manufacturing sector?
-The transcript implies that the US manufacturing sector has been through a challenging period, with contraction for 16 consecutive months, and while there is a slight expansion indicated by the PMI of 50.3, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to factors such as a backlog of orders contraction and employment issues.
How does the transcript connect the state of the US labor market to the performance of the manufacturing sector?
-The transcript connects the US labor market to the manufacturing sector by suggesting that continued job cuts and a potential slowdown in new orders could be a result of a lack of demand and high labor costs, which could lead to a decline in manufacturing activity.
What is the potential implication of the bond market's reaction to the Fed's rate policy?
-The bond market's reaction suggests that rates may stay higher for longer, which could indicate a belief that the Fed has not fully addressed the economic challenges and that the economy may not be as resilient as suggested by some data points.
What does the transcript suggest about the role of consumer spending in the US economy?
-The transcript suggests that consumer spending plays a critical role in the US economy, with total compensation trends influencing manufacturing activity. If consumers do not have the money or access to credit, they will not spend, which can lead to a decline in new orders and manufacturing activity.
How does the transcript discuss the impact of rising costs on manufacturers and consumers?
-The transcript discusses that rising costs, such as oil and raw material prices, along with increased transportation rates, have led to higher producer prices. However, it also notes that manufacturers raising their prices does not guarantee that consumers will be willing or able to pay more, which could lead to a decrease in demand.
What is the significance of the yield curve inversion mentioned in the transcript?
-The yield curve inversion, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, is typically seen as a warning sign of an impending economic downturn or recession. The transcript suggests that this inversion is not yet over and that the manufacturing sector could face further challenges.
What hope does the transcript offer for a potential Fed rate cut?
-The transcript suggests that a rising dollar could potentially lead to a slowdown in the US economy that might prompt the Fed to cut rates. This is seen as a potential hope for the Biden Administration and a factor that could provide some relief before the elections.
How does the transcript describe the potential impact of the discussed economic factors on the stock of Power Metals Corp?
-The transcript describes Power Metals Corp as being well-positioned to take advantage of the North American battery initiative with high-grade lithium and cesium projects. It suggests that the stock could experience a significant increase in value due to market expectations and past performance.
Outlines
📉 Economic Concerns and Market Reactions
The paragraph discusses the Biden Administration's panic over a significant economic downturn, with a particular focus on how a 50% crash is affecting the US economy. The host, Steve Van Meter, highlights the administration's hope for rate cuts to stimulate the economy before the elections. The market reaction to the strong ISM data, which reduced the odds of a June Fed rate cut, is also detailed. The paragraph further explores the implications of the manufacturing PMI report and the potential misinterpretation of data by the market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges in the US economy despite signs of recovery.
📈 Retail Trends and Manufacturing Activity
This paragraph delves into the retail sector's inventory trends and their impact on manufacturing activity. It notes the slowdown in retailer order demands and the potential consequences for the manufacturing sector. The discussion includes the Philadelphia Fed General Business Activity Index and its relationship with retailer inventories. The paragraph also addresses the challenges faced by the economy due to the post-pandemic money circulation and the bond market's indication of higher rates for a longer period. The impact of personal income and spending data on the Fed's decision-making process is also highlighted.
💰 Rising Costs and Its Impact on the Economy
The paragraph focuses on the increasing costs due to higher oil and raw material prices, as well as transportation rates, and their effect on the economy. It examines the relationship between the prices paid index, treasury yields, and manufacturing sector performance. The paragraph suggests that the market's belief in higher rates may not align with the actual economic situation. It also discusses the banking sector's role in the economy, particularly how banks' tightening of lending standards affects demand and manufacturing activity. The potential for an economic crash and its implications for the Biden administration are also considered.
💸 The Role of the Dollar in Economic Stability
This paragraph explores the impact of the US dollar's strength on the economy and the potential for Fed rate cuts. It discusses how a rising dollar can lead to a decrease in US manufacturing activity due to a shift in demand to other countries. The paragraph also considers the possibility of the dollar's strength prompting the Fed to cut rates to stimulate the economy. The discussion includes the relationship between the dollar and Fed fund policy and the implications for the US economy leading up to the elections.
🚀 Investment Opportunities in Power Metals Corp
The final paragraph shifts focus to an investment opportunity with Power Metals Corp, a Canadian mining company. The host discusses the company's potential for growth, highlighting its exploration and development of cesium, lithium, and tantalum. The paragraph emphasizes the strategic location of the company's projects, experienced management team, and strong financial position. It also provides information on the company's stock performance and potential for a significant increase in value, encouraging viewers to conduct their own research before investing.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡White House panics
💡Biden Administration
💡Fed rate cut
💡ISM data
💡Manufacturing PMI
💡Economic expansion
💡Retailer inventories
💡Backlog of orders
💡Labor market
💡Yield curve
💡Power Metals Corp
Highlights
The Biden Administration is reportedly in a state of panic due to a significant economic indicator.
A key economic metric has dropped by 50%, raising concerns about its impact on the US economy.
There is speculation that President Biden may be able to maintain his position before the elections through certain economic strategies.
The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates has been identified as a problem for the Biden administration's economic plans.
ISM data indicates that the US manufacturing sector has slightly expanded, but this comes after 16 consecutive months of contraction.
New orders for manufacturers are critical and have shown a slight increase, but employment figures suggest ongoing job cuts.
Retailer inventories are near record highs, which may indicate a mismatch between inventory and consumer demand.
The backlog of orders continues to contract, which could lead to further workforce reductions in the manufacturing sector.
The labor market's resilience is being questioned as continued claims rise, potentially affecting manufacturing activity.
Total compensation trends suggest that consumers may not have the funds or access to credit to drive economic growth.
The banking sector's tightening of lending standards could further suppress demand and impact the manufacturing sector.
The yield curve inversion suggests that financial conditions are tightening, which is typically bad news for banks and the economy.
There is optimism in the manufacturing sector for the second and third quarters, but there are concerns that this may not materialize.
The rise of the US dollar could potentially lead to a slowdown in the US economy and possibly trigger a Fed rate cut.
Power Metals Corp, a Canadian mining company, is highlighted as having a potential for a significant stock price increase.
Power Metals Corp has a strategic location and is exploring high-grade lithium, cesium, and tantalum projects.
The company's stock has shown potential for rapid increases, with a historical pattern of price squeezes.
Investors are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions regarding Power Metals Corp.
Transcripts
the White House panics I'm your host
Steve Van Meter and thanks for joining
me today and our lead story The Biden
Administration is in full panic mode is
this just crashed by 50% we'll show you
why this is so worrisome for the Biden
Administration and how it will actually
end up devastating the US economy but is
there some hope that President Biden can
hang on to before the elections we'll
show you what that is plus we have a
sponsor Today Show we'd like to welcome
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the OTC under symbol
pwrmf and on the tsxv under symbol pwm
they're one of Canada's Premier mining
companies and I'm going to show you an
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this this an incredible setup stay tuned
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for more information now let's H to
Bloomberg where he picked today's story
up with the had line the June Fed rate
cut odds dip below 50% after strong ISM
data and this is a huge problem for the
Biden administration because they have
been talking about how the economy needs
rate Cuts this is a big victory if they
can get to Fed to cut rates maybe two or
three times before the November
elections this would be huge for them
but based on this data today well it
takes off the table we'll show you what
the market reaction here but this is not
the news of Biden Administration wanted
the problem is it's going to end up
devastating the US economy but maybe
maybe there's a little hope we'll show
you what that is but let's continue on
as the amount of fed easing priced into
swap contracts for this year dropped to
fewer than 65 basis points lesson fed
policy makers themselves have forecast
after the ISA manufacturing for March
exceeded all estimates in the Bloomberg
survey Economist a bom Market itself
here in soon which the two to 30e yields
Rose by at least 10 basis points on the
day and actually extended that since
this article was printed among their
biggest daily increases this year as a
market said wait a minute maybe we have
this wrong maybe rates aren't high
enough maybe they need to go back up
maybe the FED nailed this soft landing
and we are at a new normal and race that
is highly unlikely but let's take a look
at that ISM report and see what the
market reacted to because here you can
see the manufacturing PMI came in at
50.3 now the way you read this is
anything over 50 denotes an expansion
over the prior month anything under 50
is a contraction over the prior month so
in this case at 50.3 what's it telling
us is a US manufacturing centor only
ever so slightly expanded over last
month but that isn't the big deal it's
because this happened after con
Contracting for 16 consecutive months
that's the issue and demand now remains
at the early stages of the recovery
which is what the mark Market believes
would clear signs of improving
conditions I'm going to show you why
that that isn't the case at all and the
Market's Mis reacting to the data here
but what matters is everyone thinks that
the US economy has now gotten through
the worst part and that the beginning of
this you know new expansion is starting
and the evidences in the manufacturing
sector when we dig into the data we'll
find out that's not the case at all but
let's take a look at the glance report
here you can see that 50.3 number but as
you drill down a little bit here's the
real excitement is in new orders at
51.4 now you may remember we talk about
how new orders is absolutely critical
that you need to see an increase in that
so 51.4 you know we get an increase over
last month would had a very slight
contraction look at this employment
though and things since where it stops
to add up because the prior month it was
45.9 now it's a 47 indicating that
manufacturers are still cutting
employees just slight
but we dig deeper and customers are
saying well they don't have enough
inventory and that really doesn't make a
lot of sense because retailer
inventories are sitting near record
highs what this may actually mean is
they have the wrong inventory that is
the problem but look at this the backlog
of orders continues to contract this is
something that of course the market
isn't really paying attention to because
at some point if you eat away through
your backlogs and you don't have enough
new orders to support your existing
Workforce well then what happens is
exactly what that report said is you
continue to trim workers and that is
dangerous let's talk about what's going
on with the retailers here if we have
retailer inventories now we don't have
the ism data we're pulling this from the
Fred databases from the St Louis fed but
we do have the Philly fed General
business activity index which is a pulse
of the manufacturing sector and this is
wonderful because the data goes back a
very long ways now when we take retailer
inventories we put that in red
put it on a year-over-year rate of
change and you'll notice it doesn't get
Negative now until it reaches underneath
that green line and right now retailer
inventories are expanding just at a
slower Pace the issue here is you notice
that as retailer inventor start to come
down on a year-over-year rate of change
well so does of course General
manufacturing activity and that's what's
key here because we see retailers their
order demands slow down at time when
manufacturing here is starting again to
give be indication that we've got some
green shoots that we've gotten to the
worst and the FED did indeed engineer
The Impossible but did they well not
quite as the ice report feeds into the
narrative coming out of last week
whereby the economy's resilience enables
a fed to be patient and that's just it
the FED did the fastest rate hiking
cycle in history and they didn't break
the economy well at least not yet
because one of the challenges as will
show you is the issue comes underneath
is that there was a ton of money and
from the pandemic still sosing around
the economy we know that that go has
gone away but not entirely but every
month it passes a little more and a
little more evaporates and yet the
economy isn't growing fast enough to for
what is to come and for the bond market
that means rates are going to stay
higher for longer that was a reaction of
course in the bond market suggesting
well the FED indeed has this right but
really they don't and here you can see
the general business activity index it's
against Federal fund rate and what it
shows us is in fact the FED should have
already been cutting rates because many
people look at the Consumer Price Index
because the FED tells them to it says
that inflation matters now the FED
really cares about lending they really
care about manufacturing they really
care about the employment sector but
this time they ignored it well and it
appears based on the data that they got
it right but remember we look at the
Philly fed data and even though the ism
was in contraction for 16 months
straight we see that this popped up and
verted so maybe this is a oneoff month
it's part of a bigger Trend we'll find
out but what's supporting the Market's
view here as a Fed got it right it
developments included a personal income
and spending data for February that
showed consumption remains rather strong
while progress toward lower inflation is
stalled out subsquently pal reiterated
that the FED wants to be more confident
inflation Trend before cutting rates
which we know will indeed happen at some
point and that strong labor market
conditions means there's no urgency that
is until of course the US Labor Market
starts to unwind and that's what's
critical in that ISM data it says hey
look we are still slightly laying off
people why is that because the backlog
of orders continue to get worked down
there's not going to be a lot of work
left for these people we need new order
growth to Surge in a huge huge way and
one of the reasons this new order book
is not going to continue going higher
has everything to do with total
compensation if consumers don't have the
money and they don't have access to
credit well they're not going to spend
here we see it's average hourly earnings
multiplied by average weekly hours of
production of nonsupervisory employees
that in red shown on a year-over-year
rate of change again to the Philly fed
General manufacturing diffusion index
and what do we see where the red line
goes manufacturing follows and it makes
perfect sense now you do get some
transitory pieces where while
manufacturing activity surges and then
it comes crashing down as of course
consumers don't have the money to spend
and you see now that the trend in total
compensation is lower but everyone's
starting to look ahead and say wait a
minute maybe the second half this year
everything comes out maybe these
political Elites were right and we need
to get ahead of this before we actually
don't have the capacity to meet demand
but look at this March employment data
which is coming this Friday is expected
to show the slowest pace of job creation
in several month though the US
unemployment rate remains at
historically low levels under 4 % the
reality is the labor Market's going to
cause some problems here as well again
we look at the current General activity
index for the Philly fed the man pulse
of the manufacturing sector there but
let's look at the labor market now
continued claims shown in red and what
happens as continued claims rise it
makes sense that manufacturing activity
Falls and this is real simple because as
people go on unemployment and
particularly St employment not only do
they have less money but they lose hope
that the econom is going to turn around
so they're spending declines that means
new orders go down and when new orders
fall eventually General manufacturing
activity Falls what the market is
suggesting here is that we plateaued
that perhaps the cycle of rising
continued claims is it it caps out
around 1.8 million I don't think that's
how it plays out I believe this number
is going to go higher because what we
need to see is it start to come down in
a big way but a common theme among both
surveys was that of soing prices is from
zero hedge as S&P Global noted that
higher oil and raw material cost plus
increased Transportation rates
reportedly added the cost Burns at the
end of the first quarter now what was
the driver behind that well we know that
West Texas intermediate crude oil prices
went up that caused gasoline prices to
go up and that means producer prices in
this case indeed go up and the impact of
rising labor cost was mentioned as a
factor of pushing up selling price at a
number of Manufacturers but just because
manufacturers raise their prices well
doesn't mean consumers are going to pay
for it at all but the market believes
well they have the money let's take a
look at this because when we talk about
yields in prices paid there's a very
strong relationship between these
diffusion indices and of course what
Market rates are on treasuries here we
knowe we have the prices paid index here
still at Philadelphia with the
manufacturing sector against 10year
treasury as shown in Red so you see
slowdowns in the manufacturing sector
match declines in treasury yields and
this makes really perfect sense when you
think about it because if demand's going
down in a debt-based economy what does
that tell you about rates it simply
means they're too high and how do you
spur of course people to go out and
borrow money and finance well certainly
not higher rates it's actually lower rat
so the interest rates then tend to fall
but notably this cycle No One Believes
that here you can see prices paid
continues to head down ISM saying well
wait a minute not exactly how that's
working but what the market believes is
that not only are rates not high enough
that they just are going to stay
elevated for some time what's going to
happen if indeed the bond market is
right here at some level that these
higher rates are really going to bite in
demand and at some point maybe in the
months to come we're going to see a huge
crash in the economic data now this
would be the worst case scenario for the
Biden administration because we know
that never have we seen a president
running for a second term get reelected
during recession that would be the the
worst thing that could happen but will
that something save this well I'll show
you what that is here in a bit because
again we talk about the probabilities
that the market is right here and then
indeed we are seeing what looks like
that soft Landing or no Landing scenario
play out as the economy emerges and we
can see this in the banking sector if we
look at the net percentage of domestic
Banks tightening commercial industrial
loans to firms of all sizes and these
are the money creators in the economy
again we're going to look at this
against the general a diffusion index
for the Philly fed again the
manufacturing sector and when banks are
on that tightening lending standards
well demand goes down we see it happen
in the manufacturing sector but what
everyone's excited about is that maybe
we're coming to the end of the cycle
unless we're actually not and there's
strong evidence that we're not there yet
and we can see that indeed in the yield
curve now this is where you take the
10year and you subtra the subtract the
two-year treasury Y and anytime it's
under that hor Al black line shows an
inversion well when you have inversions
what follows that is yields come down
now many people think well that's
wonderful that's great news for the
economy it's terrible news for the banks
because it means financial conditions
are tightening and now let's take a look
at what happens with that Philly fed
index to show us that indeed this cycle
is not over yet because when the curve
starts to steepen and rates fall what
happens manufacturing sector falls off
an absolute Cliff you see that happen
over and over suggesting that we aren't
out of the woods yet at all we need to
see of course rates normalize and that
doesn't happen until the FED brings
short-term rates down enough that the
curve gets un inverted they're not going
to do that at least there's no immediate
plans maybe as early as as the summer
based on the ism data again this is
dangerous news for the economy which
tells us that what we're seeing in this
datea this month is not an actual
representation of where the US economy
is headed and that is a problem and you
see that in this hope and kind of in the
data here these are some of the
responses expecting to see orders and
production pick up for the second
quarter again everyone's buying into the
second half narrative as suppliers are
working with us to help drive cost down
which will help improve the margin for
the rest of the year there's another one
demand remains soft but optimism is high
that orders are well just on the horizon
expectations are strong for that second
quarter and continue to experience a
softness in the industrial sector there
is an optimism that order activity will
increase in the late second quarter and
how about this business activity is up
but many manufacturers are anticipating
Better Business in the second quarter
and much better in the third quarter the
is question here is what if that doesn't
materialize and everybody is running on
hope that they're just cranking out new
orders and getting trying to fill up
shelves and the chance that the economy
turns around well that would be a huge
huge problem but there there something
that could stall at the manufacturing
sector here in the US that could indeed
give the Biden Administration some hope
for some Fed rate cuts and yes it is
it's called The Almighty dollar as Fed
rate cut push back puts the Dollar on
track for a quarterly gain now mind you
when the market believes the FED is
either going to keep rates up or perhaps
even raise rates further which even
though we see e economic activity
picking up here in the ism data Highland
likely would see the FED respond with
higher rates but that tells Market
participants because again they believe
the correlated to Fed fed fund policy
that means the dollars got to go up and
hawkish remarks from the FED Governor
Christopher Waller added the speculation
and the central bank is in well no hurry
to loosen policy and will lag others in
pivoting to rate cuts that drove traders
to pair bets that the FED will start
easing in June and help Drive the Euro
below $18 per dollar for the first time
in a month and if you take a look at the
federal funds rate against nominal
dollar well you have virtually no
relationship here even though everyone
thinks there is one but what we do know
is there are cases where a rising dollar
does indeed get the FED to cut now the
question may be why does that happen
well let's take a look at the general
activity index again coming back to the
Philly fed and what happens when the
dollar goes up other currencies that are
tied to the dollar which is well
virtually everything well they go down
and that means of course people look to
other places for manufacturing and
demand so you see periods where the
dollar is rising usually leavs to a
decline in US manufacturing activity and
so maybe the one hope that the Biden
Administration has here that could ease
some of their Panic well that would be a
rising dollar so it's enough slowdown in
the US economy where it gets the FED to
cut hopefully before the elections the
challenge I think I'd love to know what
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I'm Steve Van berer thanks for watching
thanks for being fans bye
now
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