Jamaica's Economic Growth & Vision 2030 Objectives | TVJ Smile Jamaica
Summary
TLDRThe discussion centers on Jamaica's progress towards its Vision 2030 goals, with financial economist Dr. Adrian Stokes evaluating the nation's economic growth and challenges. Despite a reported 5.7% economic growth in Q2 2024, only 17% of Vision 2030 targets have been met, signaling the need for recalibration. Dr. Stokes emphasizes the importance of human capital development, addressing declining productivity, brain drain, and the role of education and training. He also highlights national security, healthcare, and economic policy as key pillars for achieving sustainable growth, while advocating for more realistic, short-term goals.
Takeaways
- 📈 The Jamaican economy grew by 5.7% in Q2, driven primarily by the services sector.
- 🎯 Only 17% of the Vision 2030 goals have been achieved, with around 79% of the targets not being met.
- 🤔 The progress toward Vision 2030 may need recalibration, potentially extending the timeline to 2040 or 2050.
- 😷 COVID-19 was not the primary factor hindering the success of Vision 2030; broader issues with execution and overly ambitious goals are to blame.
- 🎓 A key recommendation is to focus on human capital development, emphasizing education and training to drive economic growth.
- 🚶♂️ The brain drain is exacerbating Jamaica’s human capital crisis, as skilled workers are leaving the country.
- 🛡️ National security and human capital are seen as pillars for Jamaica’s future development, given the country’s high crime rates and limited resources.
- 🏥 Health care investment and improvements in the standard of care are also necessary for Jamaica’s progress.
- 🏦 Strengthening the macroeconomy with sustainable policies is essential for continued growth and stability.
- 🤝 To succeed, Jamaica needs more realistic goals, potentially narrowing the focus to key areas like human capital, security, health, and economic sustainability, with bipartisan political support.
Q & A
What is the reported economic growth for Jamaica in Q2, according to the PIOJ?
-The economy grew by 5.7% in Q2, with the services industry leading the growth.
What is Vision 2030, and how is it currently progressing?
-Vision 2030 is Jamaica's national development plan aimed at creating a prosperous economy. However, the plan has only achieved a 17% success rate so far, with 79% of its initiatives not being met.
What are some factors contributing to Jamaica’s economic growth?
-Economic growth was driven by an improvement in the services sector, largely due to the relaxation or removal of COVID-19 measures.
What challenges are Jamaica facing in terms of economic growth?
-Jamaica is facing challenges such as geopolitical tensions driving up commodity prices, local interest rate hikes by the Bank of Jamaica, and the ongoing impact of COVID-19.
Did COVID-19 significantly impact Jamaica’s progress on Vision 2030?
-While COVID-19 did have an impact, it cannot be solely blamed for the slow progress of Vision 2030, as only a 17% success rate has been achieved since its launch.
What recommendations were made for improving Jamaica’s progress toward Vision 2030?
-Dr. Adrian Stokes recommended narrowing the focus of the national development plan to more realistic goals, with an emphasis on human capital development, security, health, and the macroeconomy.
Why is human capital development critical for Jamaica’s future economic growth?
-Human capital development, which includes improving skills and education, is essential for inclusive economic growth. Without it, Jamaica faces a crisis in labor productivity and the continued challenge of a brain drain.
What is the definition of human capital, and how can it be developed?
-Human capital refers to the economic value of a person’s skill set and experience. It can be developed through improvements in education and training.
How is the brain drain affecting Jamaica’s human capital development?
-The brain drain, where skilled individuals leave the country, exacerbates Jamaica’s human capital crisis by reducing the number of skilled workers available to drive economic growth.
What pillars did Dr. Stokes suggest focusing on to achieve sustainable development in Jamaica?
-Dr. Stokes suggested focusing on four main pillars: human capital development, national security, health, and the macroeconomy.
Outlines
📈 Is Jamaica on Track for Vision 2030?
The host welcomes Dr. Adrian Stokes, financial economist and vice president of PSOJ, to discuss Jamaica's Vision 2030 and its alignment with recent economic growth. While Jamaica saw a 5.7% growth in Q2, Dr. Stokes questions if Vision 2030 is achievable within the timeframe. He highlights that only 17% of Vision 2030's targets have been met, and 79% are off track. He warns that challenges, including geopolitical tensions and local economic issues, may push the realization of Vision 2030 much further, possibly to 2040 or 2050.
📉 Overshooting or Misjudging Vision 2030?
The conversation deepens as Dr. Stokes critiques the ambition behind Vision 2030, pointing out that achieving only 17% of its goals cannot be entirely blamed on COVID-19. He explains that both public and private sectors struggle with execution and suggests that Vision 2030 may have been too broad and grandiose for Jamaica’s capacity. Dr. Stokes emphasizes the need for clearer, more specific goals to increase the likelihood of success, particularly in human capital development and economic improvement.
👩🎓 The Importance of Human Capital in Jamaica's Future
Dr. Stokes identifies human capital as the cornerstone of Jamaica's inclusive economic development. He describes a 'human capital crisis,' exacerbated by a brain drain and declining labor productivity. To build human capital, he stresses the need for improved education and training, which are essential to retaining skilled workers. Dr. Stokes argues that if Jamaica focuses on human capital, it will help address other challenges, including crime.
🔑 Narrowing Focus for National Development
In response to the host’s question on how to recalibrate Vision 2030, Dr. Stokes advocates for a more focused approach. He recommends shortening the timeline to about seven years, ensuring cross-political collaboration, and concentrating on key areas like national security, education, and economic policies. By narrowing the objectives and securing bipartisan support, Dr. Stokes believes Jamaica can achieve more sustainable progress.
🏥 Pillars for Jamaica's Development: Health and Economy
Dr. Stokes outlines the four key pillars for Jamaica's development: human capital, security, health, and the economy. He stresses the need for improved healthcare, as it is vital for overall societal well-being. Furthermore, he emphasizes the importance of sound macroeconomic policies that ensure long-term growth and stability. According to Dr. Stokes, focusing on these pillars will significantly enhance Jamaica's chances of achieving its developmental goals.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Vision 2030
💡Economic Growth
💡Human Capital
💡Services Sector
💡Geopolitical Tensions
💡Brain Drain
💡COVID-19 Pandemic
💡Security
💡National Development Plan
💡Sustainable Policies
Highlights
Dr. Adrian Stokes discusses the connection between Jamaica's economic growth and Vision 2030, with services leading the way in Q2 2024.
Despite the positive economic growth, Vision 2030 is not on track, with only 17% of its goals achieved.
Dr. Stokes emphasizes the need for recalibration, as 79% of the initiatives under Vision 2030 are not being met.
He questions whether Jamaica was too ambitious when crafting Vision 2030, especially in light of setbacks like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dr. Stokes highlights that while many blame COVID-19 for the slow progress, this does not account for the full picture of the challenges in meeting Vision 2030 targets.
He advocates for focusing on human capital development, stressing that it is essential for inclusive economic growth.
Jamaica faces a human capital crisis, with declining labor productivity due to poor human capital development.
Brain drain exacerbates the problem, as skilled individuals leave Jamaica, further weakening its human capital.
To solve this issue, Dr. Stokes emphasizes the importance of improving education and training as key drivers of human capital growth.
He criticizes the broadness of Vision 2030, suggesting the plan is difficult to communicate and implement effectively.
Stokes recommends narrowing Jamaica's developmental focus and adopting a shorter-term plan with more realistic goals, spanning seven years.
He suggests consensus building on key national issues such as security, education, and training across political lines.
National security is highlighted as another critical pillar, given Jamaica's high homicide rate, making it harder for the population to thrive.
Dr. Stokes advocates for significant investment in healthcare, noting that better health infrastructure is key to sustainable development.
He calls for macroeconomic policies that promote sustainable growth, which is essential for achieving long-term economic stability.
Transcripts
welcome back everybody so is jamaica
closer to achieving its goal of vision
2030 and how
is the reported economic growth
impacting this vision we're going to put
these questions to
financial economist and vice president
for the psoj dr adrian stokes who now
joins us via zoom good morning to you dr
stills how you doing
hi good morning how are you doing i'm
very well thank you very much asking
so our economy grew 5.7 percent this is
for q2 right june quarter services
industry leading the way that's
according to the pioj
um i want us to put us put this into
context against the background that we
hear now that vision 20 30 targets are
under review
um
first of all let me ask if you think
based on the trajectory on
if vision 2030 is looking more like
vision 20
40 or 50 or you think we're on the right
track to achieve it
well good morning again well first let
me
link the
growth the in the economy to the vision
2030 objectives
so the link is really to be seen in the
goal that the vision 23rd third goal
that speaks about a prosperous economy
and the performance that we saw during
the april the june quarter is reflective
of continued improvement in economy in
particular the services sector
and that improvement really came about
from measures that were put in place to
stem the spread of it being relaxed or
removed
and therefore we're seeing an
improvement in the the hospital the
space which is driving overall economic
growth
the
the key thing to
to really understand however is that the
economy is facing headwinds from
geopolitical tensions driving up
commodity prices
we have our own local headwinds with
interest local interest rates going up
um driven by the bank of jamaica but
overall the economy is in a better place
compared to say 2007 because we have a
much better capacity to absorb negative
shots but in terms of the specific
question in terms of the trajectory of
vision 2030. the honest answer is that
it's not going so well i think so far we
have only
17 17
uh success rate
and from what i can see from the latest
pioj
report on vision 2030
i would say approximately 79
of the initiatives are not being met and
therefore we need to recalibrate to get
on a better trajectory
wow 17 is an f
um
so
my question to you is
i remember when i was in corporate
corporate you see that scorecard i used
to have the green you know little green
for the tags that were on track you have
the amber for those that were going
along and the the red
right for if we're just not doing it
this is a big fat red
is it that we
we kind of overshot the runway in
crafting the goals
um
i know kovitov has set us back somewhat
but even with covid the time we launched
this vision 2030 campaign
so many years later it's already about
17 something else is wrong so did we
have it wrong from the start where we've
been too ambitious
excellent question because the truth is
you can't really blame
a 17
achievement or success rate on kobe it's
just not a credible response
now mind you with the best intention in
the world execution is hard not just the
public sector but also in the private
sector many countries will lag in their
developmental goals and that's what
we're seeing with vision 2030
and and so what many countries have done
and even in the in the private sector
from a corporate planning perspective
we tend to make goals smarter in the
sense that they are more specific
measures
realistic and timely in other words
they're not as grandiose are broad as
vision 2030 and with making the the
goals more let's call it realistic
right the goal is more realistic then
you tend to find that it is first of all
easier to communicate to the population
what we're doing and you will stand a
better chance of achieving a better
success rate on the overall
developmental objective so think you are
you ask a good question in terms of
whether or not the the focus is just way
too broad and given the country's
limited capacity
uh
you know whether or not we we have
taken on more than we can really execute
as a country yeah because we have to
look at it doc i mean um
when we look at or investment really in
human capital isn't that
uh a big thing that we need to right now
be focusing on if we want to move
forward and try to basically catch up
no absolutely and that would be my
recommendation i would say as a country
that we focus on human capital
development
right the the first thing to realize is
that human capital is the base on which
inclusive economic development will rely
on
right
it is
almost impossible
for our country to be developed
with low levels of human capital that
we're seeing right now
and in fact i would say that the country
faces a human capital crisis
we have had
uh
declining productivity in jamaica and
the reason why we have had decline in
labor productivity is because our human
capital development our formation is low
and and so
we need to invest we need to focus on
driving up our human capital and i
believe
i'm sorry to jump in because when you
say human capital i want you to just
explain that to the layman a little bit
um you know if we're developing it for
the future of jamaica what does that
look like one and two
if you need to build it you need the
people to develop and the people are
leaving
many of them so we how do we invest
in human capital when a lot of the
humans here are looking to
well certainly within a particular
demographic that's important to the
future of jamaica's development
yes well first let's just give a working
definition of human capital it is really
the
economic value of your skill set or your
experience and on your skills right if
we could place a value on it that's what
we would call or that's what we're
calling your human capital
right now how do you develop it
um there are there are many
many approaches but it really boils down
to the two major things right
improvement in training and education
those are prerequisites to improve
your human capital right and
you spoke just now about the brain drain
and
what is happening is that
with low human capital
a brain drain as significant as ours is
exacerbating the problem that the
country faces absolutely because it
means that we're losing our skilled
people and therefore
the human capital formation is being
and i would say
we have a crisis on our hands that we
must deal with urgently as a country and
so
wild vision 2030 is a good document it
has really nice objectives
from a communication perspective i
always find it very very hard to
comprehend to be honest with you just
too many things going on in vision 2030.
and therefore i would narrow my focus
around defining what human capital is
for the jamaican people
and
for everyone to understand that human
capital is really about building up the
individual building up jamaicans and i
believe if we can have that as a focus
then
it is so pervasive
or i should say it runs across all the
developmental goals you cannot achieve
or you cannot develop your country
without developing your people yeah and
it also impacts things like crime and
and
yeah
so what do we do doc
we're going to focus on it what do we do
do we readjust
the goals
or push back a date to say as simone
said vision 2040.
so
i would get out of this
broad very broad national developmental
plan
right i would
focus our or i would narrow the
objective
of the country's developmental
objectives first and foremost i would
move to a shorter time period
right vision 2030 was over many many
years right i would narrow the focus to
about seven years and i and i say seven
years to ensure that it cuts across
political cycles
right and i would also
try and build consensus on some key
national security
and also training and education um
initiatives right invite the opposition
to to get consensus on these things
because
security is also a key component of
human development it's hard for people
to to develop in a society where you can
lose your life uh at any moment so that
was my next question to you actually
because human capital development is one
pillar that you you've spoken about and
we have to build the rest on other
pillars if you're saying we need to
distill it and drill it down to the key
things that will help move us forward
with a with the third highest homicide
in rate in the world second highest in
brainery and third house in homicide
security has to be one of the pillars as
well so you say human capital is one
security is one if there were two other
pillars on which you could build
this this foundation for making it
happen what would they be
i would definitely say um health
we need to invest more in health care
right we need to improve the standard of
care in the country and and so that that
is something that
i believe
is also of in need of urgent attention
so so that's very very important and
also the the other thing to
to focus on
is the
economy right so i would say health
the
human capital bit in terms of training
and developing growth
and education
national security is one and the the big
focus as well would be on on the macro
economy and and ensuring that we have
policies that are sustainable and and
that our economy can continue to improve
from strength to strength excellent yeah
great insight so much to consider yeah
so much to consider thank you so much dr
adrian stokes for joining us this
morning financial economist and vice
president for psoj thank you sir thanks
dr stokes 17 everybody oh boy mercy
relocating to live in jamaica would you
want to after you hear that i think
there's some people who do many people
as a matter of fact who want to come
here to help make the situation better
we're going to talk about that after
this break
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