"THE FED WILL ONLY CUT 0.25%" — NOT 0.50% 😭😭
Summary
TLDRIn diesem Video diskutiert der Host die bevorstehende Entscheidung der Federal Reserve über die Zinssenkung und argumentiert, dass es wahrscheinlicher ist, dass nur um 25 Basispunkte gesenkt wird, obwohl der Markt und viele Analysten eher eine 50-Basispunkt-Ssenkung erwarten. Er präsentiert seine Argumente basierend auf aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten und analysiert die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, Rohstoffe und Devisen. Darüber hinaus wird auch über ein ungewöhnliches militärisches Vorgehen Israels gegen die Hisbollah gesprochen, das die Region weiter destabilisieren könnte.
Takeaways
- 📉 Die Märkte handeln gemischt, bevor der Bundes储备系统 eine der bedeutendsten Zinssenkungen in vielen Jahren verkündet.
- 🤔 Es gibt große Unsicherheit darüber, ob der FED-Chef Jerome Powell bei der Zinssenkung klein angeht oder großzügig handelt.
- 🗣 Der Sprecher vertritt die Meinung, dass es ratsam ist, nur um 25 Basispunkte zu senken, nicht die von vielen erwartete 50 Basispunkte.
- 📈 Die Aktienmärkte haben vor der Entscheidung des Bundes储备系统 anlegt und die S&P 500 erreichte kurzfristig neue Höchststände.
- 💥 Es wird diskutiert, dass die Inflation gefährlich werden könnte, wenn die Senkung um 50 Basispunkte zu schnell erfolgt, aber ein hartes Landen könnte aufkommen, wenn die Reaktion zu langsam ist.
- 📊 Die wirtschaftlichen Daten wie Einzelhandelsverkauf und Industrieproduktion zeigen, dass die Wirtschaft sich noch nicht im freien Fall befindet.
- 💭 Es wird spekuliert, dass politische Faktoren eine Rolle spielen könnten, da eine Senkung um 50 Basispunkte kurz vor einer Wahl möglicherweise als politisches Signal interpretiert werden könnte.
- 📊 Die Diskussion um die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren und die Möglichkeit eines sanften Landens führt zu der Überlegung, dass eine vorsichtigere Herangehensweise angebracht sein könnte.
- 🔄 Es wird erwartet, dass die Zinssenkung Auswirkungen auf alle Märkte haben wird, einschließlich der Rohstoffmärkte und der realen Wirtschaft.
- 💡 Die Analyse schließt mit der Vorhersage, dass die FED wahrscheinlich mit einer moderaten Senkung von 25 Basispunkten beginnt, was dann auf den Märkten unterschiedlich rezipiert werden könnte.
Q & A
Woran erwartet der Markt sich vor der bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung der Föderation?
-Der Markt erwartet entweder eine Zinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte oder um 50 Basispunkte, wobei die Meinungen geteilt sind.
Warum könnte die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senken?
-Es könnte aus politischen Gründen oder um die Inflation nicht zu stark anzutreiben und gleichzeitig die Risiken einer schweren Rezession gering zu halten.
Was könnte passieren, wenn die Föderation um 50 Basispunkte senkt?
-Dies könnte das Risiko einer erneuten Inflationsschub erhöhen, aber das Risiko einer schweren Rezession verringern.
Wie könnte die Aktienmärkte auf eine Zinssenkung reagieren?
-Es könnte zu einer Volatilität aufwärts und abwärts kommen, abhängig von der Höhe der Senkung und der wirtschaftlichen Aussichten.
Was bedeuten die aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten für die Entscheidung der Föderation?
-Aktuelle Daten wie steigende Einzelhandelszahlen und Industrieproduktion deuten darauf hin, dass die Wirtschaft sich nicht in einer Rezession befindet und dies könnte die Entscheidung der Föderation beeinflussen.
Was ist die Meinung des Sprechers über die wahrscheinliche Zinssenkung?
-Der Sprecher ist der Meinung, dass es wahrscheinlicher ist, dass die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senkt, obwohl er zugeben würde, wenn die Föderation um 50 Basispunkte senkt.
Welche Rolle spielen geopolitische Faktoren wie der Konflikt zwischen Israel und Hezbollah für die Märkte?
-Der Konflikt könnte einen geopolitischen Risikopreis in Gold und möglicherweise auch in Öl schaffen, was die Märkte beeinflussen kann.
Was könnte die Reaktion des Marktes auf eine Zinssenkung von 25 Basispunkten sein?
-Der Markt könnte enttäuscht reagieren, wenn er auf eine stärkere Senkung gespekuliert hat, was zu einer kurzfristigen Marktturbulenz führen kann.
Wie stehen die Chancen für eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft?
-Obwohl es Unsicherheiten gibt, gibt es immer noch die Möglichkeit einer 'weichen Landung', was die Entscheidungen der Föderation beeinflussen könnte.
Was sind die langfristigen Auswirkungen einer Zinssenkung auf Anleger?
-Langfristig könnte eine Zinssenkung zu niedrigeren Renditen für Anleger führen, insbesondere wenn die Werte hoch sind und zukünftige Wachstumsaussichten eingeschränkt sind.
Outlines
📉 Analyse der bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung der Föderation
Der erste Absatz spricht über die bevorstehende Entscheidung der Federal Reserve über die Zinssenkung. Der Sprecher diskutiert, ob die Föderation mit 25 oder 50 Basispunkten zinssen soll und gibt seine Meinung, dass es nur um 25 Basispunkte gehen wird. Er erwähnt, dass der Aktienmarkt unentschieden ist und dass es viele Unsicherheiten gibt. Der Sprecher will zeigen, was der Aktienmarkt nach der Zinsentscheidung tun könnte und analysiert auch die möglichen Auswirkungen von Israels Angriffen auf Hezollah.
📈 Wirtschaftliche Daten und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Zinspolitik
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf wirtschaftliche Daten wie den Einzelhandelsumsatz und die Industrieproduktion, die besser als erwartet sind. Der Sprecher argumentiert, dass diese Daten darauf hindeuten, dass die Wirtschaft sich nicht im Moment in einer Rezession befindet und dass die Föderation daher weniger drastische Maßnahmen ergreifen könnte. Er erwähnt auch, dass einige Analysten und Finanzinstitute eine Zinssenkung um 50 Basispunkte erwarten, aber er vertritt die Meinung, dass eine sanftere Annäherung mit 25 Basispunkten angebrachter wäre.
💹 Perspektiven für Anleger vor der Zinsentscheidung
Der dritte Absatz behandelt die möglichen Handelsstrategien für Anleger vor der Zinsentscheidung. Der Sprecher erwähnt, dass einige Investoren kurzfristige Staatsanleihen kaufen, um von einer möglichen Zinssenkung zu profitieren. Er diskutiert auch die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, wenn die Föderation 25 oder 50 Basispunkte senkt, und erwähnt historische Daten, die zeigen, wie der Markt in der Vergangenheit auf Zinssenkungen reagiert hat.
🌐 Auswirkungen globaler politischer Ereignisse auf die Märkte
In diesem Absatz spricht der Sprecher über die Auswirkungen globaler Ereignisse wie der angeblichen israelischen Attacke auf Hezollah auf die Finanzmärkte. Er diskutiert, wie solche Ereignisse die Preise von Rohstoffen und Währungen beeinflussen können und erwähnt auch, wie sich die Währung des Yen verhält, was auf eine Schwächung des US-Dollars hindeutet. Der Sprecher geht auch auf die möglichen Auswirkungen einer Eskalation des Konflikts in der Region ein.
💼 Persönliche Ansichten zum bevorstehenden Zinsbeschluss
Der fünfte Absatz ist eine persönliche Stellungnahme des Sprechers zur bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung. Er gibt seine Überzeugung wieder, dass die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senken wird, und diskutiert die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, die seine Ansicht unterstützen. Der Sprecher erwähnt auch, dass er bereit ist, sich gegebenenfalls geirrt zu haben und dass er die Meinung anderer Respektiert.
👋 Abschließende Bemerkungen vor dem Fed-Beschluss
Der letzte Absatz ist ein Abschiedskommentar des Sprechers, der darauf hinweist, dass der Tag der Zinsentscheidung der Föderation nahe ist. Er lädt die Zuschauer ein, die Ergebnisse der Entscheidung zu verfolgen und teilt mit, dass er sich freut, die Auswirkungen auf den Markt mit ihnen zu analysieren.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Zinssatz
💡Basispunkte
💡Inflation
💡Recession
💡Handelskonflikt
💡Währung
💡Rohstoffe
💡Börse
💡Liquidität
💡Politische Unsicherheit
Highlights
Stocks trade mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market uncertainty is at a record high with the most significant interest rate call in years.
Debate on whether the Fed will start with a small cut or go big with a larger interest rate reduction.
Opinion that the Fed might only cut rates by 25 basis points instead of the anticipated 50 basis points.
Potential stock market reactions to different interest rate cut scenarios.
Bitcoin's movement and its possible correlation with the anticipated interest rate decision.
Israel's unusual targeting of Hezbollah with exploding pages, a new tactic in warfare.
Analysis of the impact on commodity markets due to geopolitical events.
Discussion on the timing and size of the Fed's rate cut in the context of the upcoming election.
Economic indicators suggesting a soft landing for the economy rather than a hard recession.
The potential political implications of the Fed's decision and its timing before the election.
Market expectations and the probabilities of a 25 or 50 basis points rate cut according to fed fund futures.
Arguments for starting with a smaller rate cut to manage both inflation and recession risks.
Implications of the rate cut on retail sales, industrial production, and GDP forecasts.
The potential market reaction if the Fed only cuts rates by 25 basis points versus the expected 50.
Historical precedents and market behavior following past Fed rate cuts.
Strategic positioning in bonds and stocks ahead of the rate decision and its potential outcomes.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their influence on gold and oil prices.
The influence of technological advancements in warfare and their potential impact on global markets.
Analysis of the current state of the world's richest individuals and the sectors they represent.
Reflection on the economic trends affecting younger generations and their implications for the future.
Transcripts
coming up today stocks trade mixed ahead
of the biggest interest rate call in
years with the most Market uncertainty
on record is Jay going to start small or
go big why I disagree with the market
and think he's only going to cut 25
basis points what could happen to the
stock market afterwards did Bitcoin just
front run the move Israel targets he
with exploding pages and all the knock
on effects to commodity markets and much
more you don't want to miss this one
guys let's
[Music]
go and here we are guys on rate cut Eve
Federal Reserves set to release their
decision 2: p.m. eastern time tomorrow
then we'll get the presser 30 minutes
later early this morning looked like the
market was front running that move ging
up quite big futures are up over 1% with
S&P 500 trading quite poetic and just
finding new all-time highs by only one
point before reversing later on in the
day and stick with me today cuz I'm
going to make a case to you why I think
JP power will only cut by 0.25% tomorrow
not the widely anticipated
0.5% that the market and many others are
actually calling for and I know few of
you watching this now are calling for a
50 basis point cut which you may indeed
be right however like I said I'm going
to tell you why I think Jay will cut 25
basis points or at least why he should
cut 25 basis points quite a political
football he's got in his hand right now
right in front of the election along
with the stock market sitting right at
all-time highs I'm also going to show
you what the stock market could do in
response to the rate Cuts tomorrow and
going forward also going to show you the
really unusual way Israel just targeted
Hezbollah something we've never really
seen before and as usual perform some
technical technical analysis all across
key markets to give you the bird's eyee
view of everything that's happening
going in to this really big data M as
investors large and small position
themselves ahead of this new easing
cycle cost of capital in America just
about to come down and this has big
implications and knock on effects all
across markets and into the real economy
with consumers as well and so this is
got to be one of the most highly
anticipated Fed rate decisions I've seen
in years and years tomorrow but I'd say
almost equal amount of people on either
side of the fence of how big they're
going to go 25 basis points or 50 basis
points there's definitely strong
arguments to be made both ways in fact
just looking at the implied
probabilities from fed fund Futures
going into this they are the most
uncertain of what's going to happen on
record I'd say J pal and even his team
have probably had some uncertainty over
the last couple of weeks deciding what
to do it's really a fine balance if they
go 50 basis points they risk reigniting
inflation however they bring down the
risks of a severe recession or do they
start small and reduce the risks of
inflation however may increase the risks
of a severity of a recession if they
don't move quick enough markets can move
quickly and they don't meet again for
almost 2 months later on the 7th of
November and they definitely don't want
to have to do an emergency rate cut
before then if economic data starts
falling off the cliff so he's really in
between a rock and a hard place and
maybe a 50 basis point cut is the path
of least regret if the jobs Market were
to significantly soften over the coming
month or two cuz he doesn't want to have
egg on his face if he start small and
then things start really taking a turn
for the worse and plenty of people in
the industry are saying the FED is
already behind the curve like Jeffrey
gunlock billionaire bond fund manager
saying the fed's going to cut by half a
point tomorrow in fact he thinks they're
going to cut by 125 basis points by the
end of the year we even got America's
largest bank JP Morgan sticking to their
50 basis point rate cut call saying that
the FED will do the right thing and cut
by half per. and that's what the
Market's calling for as well fed fund
Futures going into it tomorrow they're
pricing 63% chance the fed's going to
cut 50 basis points only 37% chance
they're going to go 25 however I'm going
to leave my final odds going into it
it's pretty much the opposite I'm going
to go 60 for 25 basis point cut and 40%
chance they'll go 50 basis point cut and
as many of my regular viewers know I've
been calling for a 25 basis point cut in
September for the last 3 months so I'm
going to see that call all the way
through whether I'm right or wrong and
just to be clear I'm not definitely
saying I'm going to be right that's why
I'm giving it a 60% chance I very well
could be wrong I'm also not saying you
have to agree with me I'm also
interested to hear your thoughts on this
you're welcome to post a comment below
this video and let me know if you agree
with me or disagree with me that's fine
we can have an intellectual conversation
about it and discuss the key data points
there is a lot of moving parts and
variables and so I just want to make
that clear I'm not saying I'm 100% right
as nobody is 100% right in trading and
investing and like Peter Lynch one of
the best fund managers of all time
famously said if you're right 60% of the
time in this business then you're
exceptional so let me make my case why I
think the FED will or at least should
start off with 25 basis points tomorrow
afternoon the first being retail sales
now I know this is just one data print
today however just looking at the
overall trend it's still holding up even
though I know a lot of consumers out
there are struggling just looking at the
overall Market even if it is the top 20
30% holding it up if we to believe the
numbers coming out from the Census
Bureau then retail sales increased 0.1%
in August from July and that was doing a
lot better than expectations from
economists who were actually expecting a
0.2% decrease July's Figures were also
revised upwards to 1.1 from 1% and so on
an annual basis sales Rose 2.1% not
absolutely fantastic especially when
adjust for inflation but also not
falling off a cliff either we also just
got industrial production numbers today
with it to increasing more than expected
in August however a month over month
came in at 0.8% well ahead of
expectations of 0.2% and better than the
previous read we got as well which was
actually negative and that actually
caused Goldman Sachs to increase their
Q3 GDP estimate to an annualized rate of
2.9% meaning they don't see the economy
Contracting just around the corner or
anytime soon that's quite a far way away
from the negative level it needs to be
to actually be in a recession and of
course GDP is a lagging indicator
however Goldman Sachs they're given
their tracking estimates going forward
based on a myriad of data and in fact
just looking at the Federal Reserves
Bank of Atlanta website and their GDP
now forecasting model which also gives a
forecast of GDP going forward they just
came out today increased it as well now
seen GDP growth in the third quarter
tracking at an annualized rate of 3%
even better than Goldman Sachs 2.8% and
that's up from 2.5% a week ago so in
other words GDP estimates are tracking
up not down they see the economy
expanding and so even though there is
definitely some softness in the jobs
Market unemployment rate is curling
upwards the fact is it's still well
within the fed's Mandate under 5%
inflation's not actually on a headline
print CPI down at the lower twos just
yet we just crossed three recently
credit markets are not freezing up highi
old bonds are actually breaking out to
52e highs suggesting they're looking
forward to lower interest rates while
the economy still holds up and I know
it's against consensus however there is
still a chance of continued soft Landing
scenario and just looking at the economy
overall key indicators and for my last
point the FED wants to be apolitical Jay
says politics doesn't play into his
decision- making however I think he
might be actually worried if he does go
50 basis points it looks like a really
political move right in front of the
election and could send the wrong signal
to the economy and to the market that
the fed's really worried about things
falling off a cliff here and starting
with 50 basis points could also be an
admission that he waited too long and
starting bigs usually reserved for when
things are really melting away like we
saw in the the GFC we s off the tech
Bubble Burst I mean we got the stock
market and the real estate market
sitting at all-time highs nothing wrong
in the credit markets unemployment rate
4.2% last CPI print in the high twos and
then Senators like Elizabeth Warren are
screaming out for a 75 basis point cut I
don't think so he's probably best to
leave some ammo in the bag so if things
do get bad he's got more basis points to
work with then he can come out with a
big cut however there's no need for an
emergency order to scramble right now in
my opinion I'm just speaking for what I
see and if I were J pal I would start
with 25 basis points but like I said of
course I could be wrong I just think the
odds favor starting 25 basis points but
that being said of course I wouldn't be
surprised if he does go 50 I don't think
it's necessary the market and certainly
many other people are calling for it in
which they could for sure be right if he
comes out and cuts 50 basis points
tomorrow I'll be the first one to say
that I was wrong and the market and
everybody else was right however at this
stage I'm going to stick to my
contrarian View and go against the
market pricing and think you'll most
likely not byy much start off small
tomorrow so make sure you come back to
the click Capital Channel tomorrow and
you can see whether I was right or wrong
and of course you're always welcome to
let me know your opinion and how you see
things I'm always interested to hear
your thoughts on all this as well but
just looking at the price action of key
markets going into tomorrow we actually
got a little bump up in treasury yields
today which is also Telling Me Maybe the
market is second guessing its heavy odds
of a 50 basis point cut even though
we're still in a really pronounced and
Swift downtrend and yield like I said it
wouldn't be that surprising if he does
that big cuz I mean just look at that
2-year yield over the last couple of
month absolutely front run what could be
actually half of the entire easing cycle
over the next year looking at the 2-year
at 360 just bumped up a little bit there
today same with the 10year at 364 and I
guess if they only did go 25 basis
points the contrarian play may be to
actually sell bonds they might pull back
tomorrow like the rate sensitive ETF TLT
cuz like I said it could be a case of
just a massive Pyon into short-dated
bonds as no one wants to own long dated
bonds anymore you look at Warren Buffett
it's got almost 300 billion pretty much
all of it is in short dated Bond he ears
next to nothing in duration and it was
this price action that was kind of given
me the heads up that the Fed was on the
cusp of cutting and I know at first
glance this looks like the Market's
screaming out recession really deep dark
one however like I always say we can't
rule out the possibility of a continued
soft Landing either could also just be
the market pricing and inflation coming
down really swiftly which it has been of
late thanks to crude oil and that rates
are going to come down thanks to
inflation while the economy keeps on
growing and that's why we've got highy
bonds actually on a tear doing even
better than treasury cuz they're not
worried about defaults on the issuers of
these bonds they expect them to keep
paying and so if economic growth holds
up with lower rates well then that's a
great place to be for high yield bonds
especially when the starting valuation
was a dividend yield over 5% and stick
with me cuz bit later on I'm going to
show you some interesting price action
coming out in currencies and commodities
as they could also be taking a bit of a
turn going into the start of this new
easing cycle and so I'd say a big
consensus trade out there has been to
get into short-term bonds however there
may not be much meat left on the bone
unless we really go into that deep dark
recession looking back in history if we
don't get that recession then you can
expect yields to jump back up over the
next year meaning bonds will go down as
there's an inverted relationship between
bond yields and bond prices and like we
can see here in the current orange line
of bond yields going into it they've
absolutely nose dive the last 3 4 months
those getting into short-term bonds now
may be a little late to the party and
like I said all this is coming when the
S&P 500 is sitting literally at all-time
highs and it'll be interesting to see
the S&P reaction tomorrow if he does
only go 25 basis points will the market
sell off because it's been really hoping
and pricing for 50 basis points there
could definitely be some volatility up
and down on the initial reaction what
about if he goes 50 will there be a big
rip and rally like we saw in September
2007 like I said one of the most
anticipated fed calls and Market days of
the year if not quite a few years
actually Morgan Stanley lays out the
stock market's best case scenario for
this week's fed decision two areas to
buy after the cut they also said the FED
will cut rates by half a point without
triggering growth worries and that Mike
Wilson noted the bond market is acting
like the FED is behind the curve he said
defensive and quality stocks are worth
earning after the rate cut on Wednesday
he's been calling to pull away from the
AI growth trade and position more
defensively let's see if he's right this
time he also supports large caps over
small caps and that defensives tend to
outperform cyclicals fairly persistently
both before and after the cut we also
got some other research saying history
says fed interest rate Cuts sets up a
crapshoot for stock market investors and
that there's no real consistent pattern
in stock returns following Fed rate cuts
and even though we sit here looking at
historical data facts and statistics all
day like I said there's always key
differences there's never a complete
mirror and duplication of a past
scenario but nonetheless it's the best
we've got to go off and it's not a bad
idea to keep in the back of your mind
what can happen what has happened what
is a range of possible outcome just
looking at the S&P 500 returns after
rate cuts on average markets lower 3
months later 1.1% higher 6 months later
by 4.4% and higher year later by 4.9%
there's a big difference between hard
cuts and soft cuts a hard cut a big cut
like 50 basis points typically
associated with a deteriorating economy
and stock market a soft cut typically
associated with a strong economy and
better stock market return and I know
this is a bit of a blurry chart but
basically this shows what happens when
the FED is cut with stocks at all-time
highs as defined by the S&P being within
2% of its all-time high looking back in
history that's happened 20 times before
straight away there's quite a bit of
volatility in the first month or two
Market can consolidate go up or down
before it really decides are we on a
growth path or are we on a recession
path however with the stock market
sitting at all-time highs going into
rate Cuts looking back in history those
20 times it's occurred a year later the
market is higher 100% of the time is
this time going to be different and like
I said there's always key differences
each and every time just got an
interesting meme posted on X today from
billionaire Mark Anderson who runs one
of the world's largest Venture Capital
firms in fact he was part of founding
Netscape first web browser for the
internet back in the early '90s he
points to key risks like World War III
which a lot of people are
underestimating how close we are to that
socialists and Jim Kramer saying he's
bullish with an annotation for his
Investments sweating on the way inside
to all this JP Morgan who's calling for
a 50 basis point cut said investors
should brace for lower stock market
returns over the next decade that older
investors May favor bonds over stocks
potentially lowering their Equity
allocations as more and more baby
boomers retire they point to current
High valuations suggesting future
returns might be lower with S&P 500's
priced to earning ratio 25% above its
35e average and that historically stock
valuations tend to revert to the mean
they said corporate growth bound to slow
down after the post-pandemic spurt we've
seen and potentially Rising corporate
taxes could stress profit margins along
with increased government antitrust
actions political instability
dollarization and other knock-on effects
from socialist policies but it's
interesting just looking at the Bank of
America Global fund manager survey along
the mag 7 Still Remains the most crowed
trade even though it is pulling back
here in the dark blue September light
blue August this year and in the gray
July also interesting we're seeing an
increase bet against China short Chinese
equities fund managers are starting to
come around to Gold slightly trimming
their positions in 2-year bonds
increasing their position in corporate
bonds and significantly pulling back
their position in the short Japanese Yen
the carry trade and we've seen that in
Yen Futures as well with the latest
positioning from cftc with the
positioning here in the gray inverted
chart level in the dollar yen in the red
in other words big speculators big money
is getting long the Japanese Yen the
anti- carry trade and as's a look at Yen
Futures as you can see pretty much gone
parabolic this last couple of months a
lot of volume coming in and just going
out to a monthly chart this is coming
off multi-year lows this Yen carry trade
on wine could still have a lot further
to go as I recently showed on the Big
Mac index Japanese yen is significantly
undervalued fundamentally it's not just
the Yen it's more of a case of a weak US
dollar because look at Euro FX Futures
as well strong signs of accumulation
uptrending and we're starting to see
some signs of accumulation potential
bottoms and moves up off those Bottoms
in commodity markets which have been
weak for a few months really helped
inflation come down there's soybean
Futures corn Futures having a bit of a
pop there's wheat trading up sugar
actually ripping up today on volume
coffee actually breaking out to new 52-
we highs the really hot cocoa trade at
the start of this year still
consolidating somewhat bit of a bump up
yesterday for cotton there's copper just
slightly ticking higher orange juice
trading up gas still really weak crude
is having a bounce the last few days
silver track back to 52 we highs and of
course we all know about gold sitting
pretty as well and so like I said it's
not just the Japanese Yen that's
strengthening it's more of a case of the
US dollar weakening is still currently
sitting at this big support level Market
looking to see whether we can Bounce
from here or will it give way and we
potentially get confirmation of a new
downtrend giving further Tailwinds to
Commodities and international stocks but
also just looking at this interesting
chart here once again from the Bank of
America and their Global fund manager
survey in the dark blue the net
percentage of them expecting a strong ER
economy in the next 12 months overlaid
in the light blue the S&P 500's
year-over-year percentage change and so
it's a little bit contrarian as usual
what most of the market thinks quite
often the opposite can happen we saw
that in late 2000 we see as people get
really pessimistic and expect a weaker
economy it's often near the lows of the
market then when they're really
optimistic on expecting a stronger
economy the market can then pull back
and we really saw that in mid late 2022
there was really palpable pessimism in
the market lows F manager overall are
still really pessimistic especially when
it comes to China fact we're at
multi-year lows the amount of people
expecting a stronger Chinese economy
also interesting today to see a pop up
in Bitcoin really a bit of a political
football now it's acting like gold
anticipating a lot of rate environment
is beneficial for these anti- Fiat
currencies with it maybe pricing in a 50
basis point cut today maybe getting a
little excited and so I'd say Bitcoin is
more linked to liquidity and siment and
risk on kind of regimes in the market
than gold we've seen a lot of
correlation with Bitcoin the NASDAQ meme
stocks over last couple of years and so
if we do get that continued soft Landing
with rate cuts that could be maybe even
more beneficial to bitcoin instead of
gold even after adjusting for beta as
bitcoin's obviously a lot more volatile
than gold and just moving on to
something I've also just heard about
just hitting the news wise Hezbollah
accuses Israel as thousands hurt and
unusual pag blasts at least eight people
have been killed and a huge
2,750 have been injured as Israelis
Target the militant group of Hezbollah
and their key members causing pages to
belong to to them of actually just
blowing up right in their pocket or as
they hold it and just looking at some
social commentary coming out from this
attack from the open source intelligence
monitor if this attack was committed by
Israel it is beyond unprecedented and it
totally changes how asymmetric and
unconventional warfare will take place
across the middle east in the future we
also got open source Intel this is
possibly the largest military attack in
history with the least civilian damage
with them also going on to say a
Hezbollah intelligence official has
stated that the encrypted Pages were set
to beep beep several times before then
exploding near the head or abdomen of
the victim with the explosion believed
now to have originated from within the
lithium battery of the pager with
another person saying Israel managing to
hack Hezbollah Pages which the
terrorists used to communicate and avoid
being tracked as they got rid of all
their mobile phones as Israel was using
them to track and strike key officials
they all went under pages and
simultaneously explode all of them is
one of the baddest ass counterterrorism
moves of all time even billionaire hedge
fund manager chiming in on it saying go
going forward terorists will no longer
use devices that have chips and lithium
batteries that should be a hit to their
productivity and Effectiveness with the
intelligence monitor also going on if
this doesn't lead to fullscale war
between Israel and Hezbollah I don't
think anything ever will and so what a
clever way for the Israelis to attack
their enemy a lot of people
underestimate how technologically savvy
the Israelis are Head and Shoulders
above anyone else in the region and
they've just proven that once again
today with their precise and targeted
attack current admin's really hoping
things are cool down there going into
the election but once again the Israelis
are not willing to back down and this is
probably what's keeping a bit of a
geopolitical premium in gold and maybe
coming a little bit back to oil as this
still has the potential to blow up into
a fullscale regional War America still
has a record amount of military Assets
in the region ready to respond to a
large scale attack from Iran and all
definitely seems to have found support
on those mid-60s level which looking at
the weekly chart is a key area where the
market has turned a number of times
before we saw that early last year and
so before these Commodities bounce back
and the FED does cut by 50 basis points
we're just setting up for Resurgence and
inflation next year and in fact the 50
basis point cut would actually benefit
me the most in my portfolio probably
just the stock market in general but
also the potential Resurgence of
inflation popping up Commodities
weakening the US dollar that helps
International stocks which I'm also
invested in so don't get me wrong I
won't be upset if the FED cuts by 50
basis points I'm just going off the data
and giving you my honest opinion that I
think they'll most likely Go 25 and
there's a look at that agricultural
commodity fund actually tracking up to
52 we highs as well so surely I think J
Pal's got to be mindful of the risks to
inflation coming back that he has to
balance out with trying to get in front
of a potential recession like I said the
economy is not really diving off a cliff
right here and now there's no real
present emergency he started off the
whole rate hiking cycle with 25 basis
points why can't he start off easing the
same he didn't even blink in the
regional banking crisis early last year
as well looked like things were falling
off a cliff he actually kept on hiking
Shan that he does have some guts to stay
the path and like I said maybe it's just
the market really pricing and low
inflation and let's not forget no
markets right 100% of the time even
government bonds can be wrong we can see
Swift repricing and that's how you get
big moves in the market all markets are
pretty much trying to price in what's
around the corner 3 months out 6 months
out 12 months out however if what
materializes is different than what's
priced that's how you get those big
moves in the market the repricing
because one of these markets is wrong is
it High Yield Corporate bonds are we
already in a recession like Jeffrey
gunlock says cuz if so these should then
fall off a cliff just like they did back
in 2008 how your bonds got smashed and
so once again I'm hard pressed to find
any decent article to do with gold
across Financial media and this isn't
just a conspiracy of mine it's actually
backed up by data looking at a chart
here over the last 7 years price of gold
here in Blue Line as we all know sitting
at all-time highs however in the white
bars here is the amount of stories
across media about gold and it's
interesting isn't it currently sitting
near multi-year lows almost like an
inverse relationship gold was flat a lot
of the media was talking about it
however in general since early 2021
that's been downtrending the media is
talking less and less about gold these
last couple of years than prior to that
whereas it should be at all-time highs
big key market like gold breaking out
the media should be all over it like a
rash however not so much and another
bullish thing for a lot of commodity
markets is we're getting big Divergence
in the price of oil and these commodity
cuz a lot of miners use a lot of oil to
dig all their minerals and metals out of
the ground really energy intensive
operations so when you've got oil coming
down which pulls down a lot of things
the cost of digging goes down while the
price you can sell your Goods at goes up
that just increases profit margins and
so hopefully Ai and increased oil supply
keeps the price of oil really low for
years ahead while the infinite supply of
US Dollars helps to propel other
Commodities higher and higher that's
just going to further increase mining
margins and as they're coming off
multi-decade lows and valuation metrics
that just adds to my bullish thesis for
being invested in Commodities going
forward and just rounding out my market
market analysis today with a bit of
insight on the world's richest men seen
a big jump up lately of Larry Allison
from Oracle the guy's looking really
good for 80 years old at the top of his
game he owns a lot of Tesla shares he's
been a big believer in Elon Musk for a
long time and of course he founded the
number one database company in the world
Oracle getting in on the AI boom been a
large beneficiary of the cloud and his
stock ripping up to all-time highs
making him the fourth richest person in
the world only after Elon Musk Jeff
Bezos Mark Zuckerberg got Bernard ANL of
Louis faton Gates andama mic Larry Page
Sergio Brin alphabet Google Warren
Buffett Amano ortiga big retailer coming
out of Spain Muk shambani energy
conglomerate out of India Dell still up
there Jim Walton of Walmart coming in
number 15 Jensen hang Nvidia all worth
above 100 billion interesting out of the
top 15 richest men 10 of them come from
the technology sector also interesting
quite a few of these companies were only
created in the last 20 30 years look at
Mark Zuckerberg he only came onto the
market bit over 10 years ago
unfortunately I can't present the same
prosperity for younger people even
though over the last 20 30 years we've
seen the biggest expansion in capital
markets stock market real estate the 1%
never been as Rich the federal
government never spent as much never
been in as much debt Federal Reserve
never printed as much money all of that
stuff highly inflated the pie just not
for everybody and we can see that in the
share of us 30-y olds and again this is
not just in America this is largely
across the West you'll see the same
Trends who are living on their own going
down meaning they're still living with
their parents and looking over the last
40 years the percent that have ever
mared married now below half less and
less Millennials having children now
getting down to the low 30s 30y olds and
a percent that own their own home also
down towards 30% so have we seen the
bottom in these Trends or are they going
to keep going down towards zero while
the top 1% keep going up to 100 and will
something eventually break and cause
this to reverse or are we going to keep
living with corporate and government
socialism and capitalism for the rest of
us all right guys that pretty much wraps
it up for today on the eve of the First
Rate cut in this new easing cycle J
power going to start small 25 basis
points or is he going to go big with 50
basis points I've made it clear what my
opinion is unlike others I won't sit on
the fence and play it safe I'm going to
put my neck out there take the
contrarian bet go against the market go
against JP Morgan go against
billionaires Jeffrey gunlock and I'm
going to say 25 basis points of course I
could be wrong I'll be the first to
admit it tomorrow if I am however at
this stage I think the odds slightly
favor 25 basis points you're welcome to
disagree with me and offer some
constructive criticism let me know what
your thoughts are why you think they may
go 50 or why you may think they'll go 25
like I do thanks again for watching
click capital and I look forward to
diving in and breaking down all the
action and moves we get out of markets
tomorrow it's going to be a good one
guys I'll see you then cheers
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