"THE FED WILL ONLY CUT 0.25%" — NOT 0.50% 😭😭

Summary

In diesem Video diskutiert der Host die bevorstehende Entscheidung der Federal Reserve über die Zinssenkung und argumentiert, dass es wahrscheinlicher ist, dass nur um 25 Basispunkte gesenkt wird, obwohl der Markt und viele Analysten eher eine 50-Basispunkt-Ssenkung erwarten. Er präsentiert seine Argumente basierend auf aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten und analysiert die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, Rohstoffe und Devisen. Darüber hinaus wird auch über ein ungewöhnliches militärisches Vorgehen Israels gegen die Hisbollah gesprochen, das die Region weiter destabilisieren könnte.

Takeaways

• 📉 Die Märkte handeln gemischt, bevor der Bundes储备系统 eine der bedeutendsten Zinssenkungen in vielen Jahren verkündet.
• 🤔 Es gibt große Unsicherheit darüber, ob der FED-Chef Jerome Powell bei der Zinssenkung klein angeht oder großzügig handelt.
• 🗣 Der Sprecher vertritt die Meinung, dass es ratsam ist, nur um 25 Basispunkte zu senken, nicht die von vielen erwartete 50 Basispunkte.
• 📈 Die Aktienmärkte haben vor der Entscheidung des Bundes储备系统 anlegt und die S&P 500 erreichte kurzfristig neue Höchststände.
• 💥 Es wird diskutiert, dass die Inflation gefährlich werden könnte, wenn die Senkung um 50 Basispunkte zu schnell erfolgt, aber ein hartes Landen könnte aufkommen, wenn die Reaktion zu langsam ist.
• 📊 Die wirtschaftlichen Daten wie Einzelhandelsverkauf und Industrieproduktion zeigen, dass die Wirtschaft sich noch nicht im freien Fall befindet.
• 💭 Es wird spekuliert, dass politische Faktoren eine Rolle spielen könnten, da eine Senkung um 50 Basispunkte kurz vor einer Wahl möglicherweise als politisches Signal interpretiert werden könnte.
• 📊 Die Diskussion um die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren und die Möglichkeit eines sanften Landens führt zu der Überlegung, dass eine vorsichtigere Herangehensweise angebracht sein könnte.
• 🔄 Es wird erwartet, dass die Zinssenkung Auswirkungen auf alle Märkte haben wird, einschließlich der Rohstoffmärkte und der realen Wirtschaft.
• 💡 Die Analyse schließt mit der Vorhersage, dass die FED wahrscheinlich mit einer moderaten Senkung von 25 Basispunkten beginnt, was dann auf den Märkten unterschiedlich rezipiert werden könnte.

Q & A

Woran erwartet der Markt sich vor der bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung der Föderation?

Der Markt erwartet entweder eine Zinssenkung um 25 Basispunkte oder um 50 Basispunkte, wobei die Meinungen geteilt sind.

Warum könnte die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senken?

Es könnte aus politischen Gründen oder um die Inflation nicht zu stark anzutreiben und gleichzeitig die Risiken einer schweren Rezession gering zu halten.

Was könnte passieren, wenn die Föderation um 50 Basispunkte senkt?

Dies könnte das Risiko einer erneuten Inflationsschub erhöhen, aber das Risiko einer schweren Rezession verringern.

Wie könnte die Aktienmärkte auf eine Zinssenkung reagieren?

Es könnte zu einer Volatilität aufwärts und abwärts kommen, abhängig von der Höhe der Senkung und der wirtschaftlichen Aussichten.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Wirtschaftsdaten für die Entscheidung der Föderation?

Aktuelle Daten wie steigende Einzelhandelszahlen und Industrieproduktion deuten darauf hin, dass die Wirtschaft sich nicht in einer Rezession befindet und dies könnte die Entscheidung der Föderation beeinflussen.

Was ist die Meinung des Sprechers über die wahrscheinliche Zinssenkung?

Der Sprecher ist der Meinung, dass es wahrscheinlicher ist, dass die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senkt, obwohl er zugeben würde, wenn die Föderation um 50 Basispunkte senkt.

Welche Rolle spielen geopolitische Faktoren wie der Konflikt zwischen Israel und Hezbollah für die Märkte?

Der Konflikt könnte einen geopolitischen Risikopreis in Gold und möglicherweise auch in Öl schaffen, was die Märkte beeinflussen kann.

Was könnte die Reaktion des Marktes auf eine Zinssenkung von 25 Basispunkten sein?

Der Markt könnte enttäuscht reagieren, wenn er auf eine stärkere Senkung gespekuliert hat, was zu einer kurzfristigen Marktturbulenz führen kann.

Wie stehen die Chancen für eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft?

Obwohl es Unsicherheiten gibt, gibt es immer noch die Möglichkeit einer 'weichen Landung', was die Entscheidungen der Föderation beeinflussen könnte.

Was sind die langfristigen Auswirkungen einer Zinssenkung auf Anleger?

Langfristig könnte eine Zinssenkung zu niedrigeren Renditen für Anleger führen, insbesondere wenn die Werte hoch sind und zukünftige Wachstumsaussichten eingeschränkt sind.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Analyse der bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung der Föderation

Der erste Absatz spricht über die bevorstehende Entscheidung der Federal Reserve über die Zinssenkung. Der Sprecher diskutiert, ob die Föderation mit 25 oder 50 Basispunkten zinssen soll und gibt seine Meinung, dass es nur um 25 Basispunkte gehen wird. Er erwähnt, dass der Aktienmarkt unentschieden ist und dass es viele Unsicherheiten gibt. Der Sprecher will zeigen, was der Aktienmarkt nach der Zinsentscheidung tun könnte und analysiert auch die möglichen Auswirkungen von Israels Angriffen auf Hezollah.

05:01

📈 Wirtschaftliche Daten und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Zinspolitik

Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf wirtschaftliche Daten wie den Einzelhandelsumsatz und die Industrieproduktion, die besser als erwartet sind. Der Sprecher argumentiert, dass diese Daten darauf hindeuten, dass die Wirtschaft sich nicht im Moment in einer Rezession befindet und dass die Föderation daher weniger drastische Maßnahmen ergreifen könnte. Er erwähnt auch, dass einige Analysten und Finanzinstitute eine Zinssenkung um 50 Basispunkte erwarten, aber er vertritt die Meinung, dass eine sanftere Annäherung mit 25 Basispunkten angebrachter wäre.

10:02

💹 Perspektiven für Anleger vor der Zinsentscheidung

Der dritte Absatz behandelt die möglichen Handelsstrategien für Anleger vor der Zinsentscheidung. Der Sprecher erwähnt, dass einige Investoren kurzfristige Staatsanleihen kaufen, um von einer möglichen Zinssenkung zu profitieren. Er diskutiert auch die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt, wenn die Föderation 25 oder 50 Basispunkte senkt, und erwähnt historische Daten, die zeigen, wie der Markt in der Vergangenheit auf Zinssenkungen reagiert hat.

15:03

🌐 Auswirkungen globaler politischer Ereignisse auf die Märkte

In diesem Absatz spricht der Sprecher über die Auswirkungen globaler Ereignisse wie der angeblichen israelischen Attacke auf Hezollah auf die Finanzmärkte. Er diskutiert, wie solche Ereignisse die Preise von Rohstoffen und Währungen beeinflussen können und erwähnt auch, wie sich die Währung des Yen verhält, was auf eine Schwächung des US-Dollars hindeutet. Der Sprecher geht auch auf die möglichen Auswirkungen einer Eskalation des Konflikts in der Region ein.

20:03

💼 Persönliche Ansichten zum bevorstehenden Zinsbeschluss

Der fünfte Absatz ist eine persönliche Stellungnahme des Sprechers zur bevorstehenden Zinsentscheidung. Er gibt seine Überzeugung wieder, dass die Föderation nur um 25 Basispunkte senken wird, und diskutiert die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, die seine Ansicht unterstützen. Der Sprecher erwähnt auch, dass er bereit ist, sich gegebenenfalls geirrt zu haben und dass er die Meinung anderer Respektiert.

25:05

👋 Abschließende Bemerkungen vor dem Fed-Beschluss

Der letzte Absatz ist ein Abschiedskommentar des Sprechers, der darauf hinweist, dass der Tag der Zinsentscheidung der Föderation nahe ist. Er lädt die Zuschauer ein, die Ergebnisse der Entscheidung zu verfolgen und teilt mit, dass er sich freut, die Auswirkungen auf den Markt mit ihnen zu analysieren.

Keywords

💡Zinssatz

Ein Zinssatz ist der Prozentsatz, um den eine Zentralbank die Geldpolitik steuert, indem sie die Kosten für Kredite und die Belohnung für eingezahltes Geld einstellt. Im Video wird erwartet, dass die Föderation die Zinssätze senkt, was die Kosten für Kredite verringert und potenziell die Wirtschaft anregt. Der Zinssatz wird als zentrales Instrument der Geldpolitik dargestellt, das die Reaktionen auf wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten beeinflusst.

💡Basispunkte

Basispunkte sind ein Maß für die Veränderung von Zinssätzen und werden in der Regel in Hunderttel eines Prozentsatzes ausgedrückt. Im Kontext des Videos bezieht sich dies auf die mögliche Reduzierung des Zinssatzes um 25 oder 50 Basispunkte durch die Föderation. Diese Veränderungen sind von großer Bedeutung für Investoren und Unternehmen, da sie die Kosten von Krediten und die Erträge von Anlagen beeinflussen.

💡Inflation

Inflation ist der allgemeine Anstieg der Preisniveaus von Waren und Dienstleistungen in einer Wirtschaft. Im Video wird die Inflation als ein potenzielles Risiko für die Zentralbank diskutiert, das durch die Senkung der Zinssätze gesteigert werden könnte. Ein hoher Inflationswert kann die Kaufkraft des Geldes schwächen und ist ein Hauptanliegen für Zentralbanken, die die Stabilität der Währung sicherstellen möchten.

💡Recession

Eine Rezession ist eine periodische Abnahme der Wirtschaftsaktivität, die durch einen Rückgang des BIP und andere wirtschaftliche Indikatoren gekennzeichnet ist. Im Video wird die Möglichkeit einer Rezession als Argument gegen eine aggressive Zinssenkung von 50 Basispunkten angeführt. Die Befürchtung einer Rezession beeinflusst die Entscheidungen der Zentralbank über die Geldpolitik.

💡Handelskonflikt

Ein Handelskonflikt bezieht sich auf wirtschaftliche Auseinandersetzungen zwischen Ländern, die durch Zölle, Handelsbeschränkungen oder andere Handelshemmnisse gekennzeichnet sind. Im Video wird auf den potenziellen Einfluss von Handelskonflikten auf die Wirtschaft und die Notwendigkeit der Zentralbank, diese Faktoren in ihre Entscheidungen über Zinssenkungen einzubeziehen, hingewiesen.

💡Währung

Eine Währung ist ein allgemein anerkanntes Medium des Austauschs, das in einer Wirtschaft als Maßeinheit, Zahlungsmittel und Währung fungiert. Im Video wird die Stärke der Währung und deren Auswirkungen auf die Inflation und das Handelsgleichgewicht diskutiert. Eine schwache Währung kann zu Importinflation führen, während eine starke Währung die Exporte begünstigen kann.

💡Rohstoffe

Rohstoffe sind natürliche Ressourcen, die in der Wirtschaft für die Produktion von Gütern und Dienstleistungen verwendet werden. Im Video werden Rohstoffpreise und -märkte als Indikatoren für wirtschaftliche Aktivität und Inflation betrachtet. Eine Steigerung der Rohstoffpreise kann die Produktionskosten erhöhen und zu Inflation beitragen.

💡Börse

Eine Börse ist eine organisierte Marktplatz, an dem gehandelte Wertpapiere, wie Aktien und Anleihen, gehandelt werden. Im Video wird die Reaktion der Börse auf potenzielle Zinssenkungen und deren Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt diskutiert. Eine Zinssenkung kann die Wertpapierpreise beeinflussen, da sie die Kosten des Kredites für Unternehmen verringert und die Dividendenrenditen attraktiver macht.

💡Liquidität

Liquidität bezieht sich auf die Fähigkeit, Vermögenswerte schnell und ohne signifikante Verluste in Bargeld umzuwandeln. Im Video wird Liquidität als Faktor für die Reaktion auf Zinssenkungen und die daraus resultierenden Auswirkungen auf Märkte wie Bitcoin und traditionelle Anlagen diskutiert. Eine höhere Liquidität kann zu einer Erhöhung der Anlageaktivitäten und Preisbewegungen führen.

💡Politische Unsicherheit

Politische Unsicherheit kann durch Unruhen, politische Instabilität oder ungewisse politische Entscheidungen entstehen und hat Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft und die Finanzmärkte. Im Video wird die Rolle politischer Faktoren bei der Entscheidung der Zentralbank über Zinssenkungen diskutiert, insbesondere in einer Zeit nahe einer Wahl.

Highlights

Stocks trade mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Market uncertainty is at a record high with the most significant interest rate call in years.

Debate on whether the Fed will start with a small cut or go big with a larger interest rate reduction.

Opinion that the Fed might only cut rates by 25 basis points instead of the anticipated 50 basis points.

Potential stock market reactions to different interest rate cut scenarios.

Bitcoin's movement and its possible correlation with the anticipated interest rate decision.

Israel's unusual targeting of Hezbollah with exploding pages, a new tactic in warfare.

Analysis of the impact on commodity markets due to geopolitical events.

Discussion on the timing and size of the Fed's rate cut in the context of the upcoming election.

Economic indicators suggesting a soft landing for the economy rather than a hard recession.

The potential political implications of the Fed's decision and its timing before the election.

Market expectations and the probabilities of a 25 or 50 basis points rate cut according to fed fund futures.

Arguments for starting with a smaller rate cut to manage both inflation and recession risks.

Implications of the rate cut on retail sales, industrial production, and GDP forecasts.

The potential market reaction if the Fed only cuts rates by 25 basis points versus the expected 50.

Historical precedents and market behavior following past Fed rate cuts.

Strategic positioning in bonds and stocks ahead of the rate decision and its potential outcomes.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their influence on gold and oil prices.

The influence of technological advancements in warfare and their potential impact on global markets.

Analysis of the current state of the world's richest individuals and the sectors they represent.

Reflection on the economic trends affecting younger generations and their implications for the future.

Transcripts

coming up today stocks trade mixed ahead

of the biggest interest rate call in

years with the most Market uncertainty

on record is Jay going to start small or

go big why I disagree with the market

and think he's only going to cut 25

basis points what could happen to the

stock market afterwards did Bitcoin just

front run the move Israel targets he

with exploding pages and all the knock

on effects to commodity markets and much

more you don't want to miss this one

guys let's

[Music]

go and here we are guys on rate cut Eve

Federal Reserves set to release their

decision 2: p.m. eastern time tomorrow

then we'll get the presser 30 minutes

later early this morning looked like the

market was front running that move ging

up quite big futures are up over 1% with

S&P 500 trading quite poetic and just

finding new all-time highs by only one

point before reversing later on in the

day and stick with me today cuz I'm

going to make a case to you why I think

JP power will only cut by 0.25% tomorrow

not the widely anticipated

0.5% that the market and many others are

actually calling for and I know few of

you watching this now are calling for a

50 basis point cut which you may indeed

be right however like I said I'm going

to tell you why I think Jay will cut 25

basis points or at least why he should

cut 25 basis points quite a political

football he's got in his hand right now

right in front of the election along

with the stock market sitting right at

all-time highs I'm also going to show

you what the stock market could do in

response to the rate Cuts tomorrow and

going forward also going to show you the

really unusual way Israel just targeted

Hezbollah something we've never really

seen before and as usual perform some

technical technical analysis all across

key markets to give you the bird's eyee

view of everything that's happening

going in to this really big data M as

investors large and small position

themselves ahead of this new easing

cycle cost of capital in America just

about to come down and this has big

implications and knock on effects all

across markets and into the real economy

with consumers as well and so this is

got to be one of the most highly

anticipated Fed rate decisions I've seen

in years and years tomorrow but I'd say

almost equal amount of people on either

side of the fence of how big they're

going to go 25 basis points or 50 basis

points there's definitely strong

arguments to be made both ways in fact

just looking at the implied

probabilities from fed fund Futures

going into this they are the most

uncertain of what's going to happen on

record I'd say J pal and even his team

have probably had some uncertainty over

the last couple of weeks deciding what

to do it's really a fine balance if they

go 50 basis points they risk reigniting

inflation however they bring down the

risks of a severe recession or do they

start small and reduce the risks of

inflation however may increase the risks

of a severity of a recession if they

don't move quick enough markets can move

quickly and they don't meet again for

almost 2 months later on the 7th of

November and they definitely don't want

to have to do an emergency rate cut

before then if economic data starts

falling off the cliff so he's really in

between a rock and a hard place and

maybe a 50 basis point cut is the path

of least regret if the jobs Market were

to significantly soften over the coming

month or two cuz he doesn't want to have

egg on his face if he start small and

then things start really taking a turn

for the worse and plenty of people in

the industry are saying the FED is

already behind the curve like Jeffrey

gunlock billionaire bond fund manager

saying the fed's going to cut by half a

point tomorrow in fact he thinks they're

going to cut by 125 basis points by the

end of the year we even got America's

largest bank JP Morgan sticking to their

50 basis point rate cut call saying that

the FED will do the right thing and cut

by half per. and that's what the

Market's calling for as well fed fund

Futures going into it tomorrow they're

pricing 63% chance the fed's going to

cut 50 basis points only 37% chance

they're going to go 25 however I'm going

to leave my final odds going into it

it's pretty much the opposite I'm going

to go 60 for 25 basis point cut and 40%

chance they'll go 50 basis point cut and

as many of my regular viewers know I've

been calling for a 25 basis point cut in

September for the last 3 months so I'm

going to see that call all the way

through whether I'm right or wrong and

just to be clear I'm not definitely

saying I'm going to be right that's why

I'm giving it a 60% chance I very well

could be wrong I'm also not saying you

have to agree with me I'm also

interested to hear your thoughts on this

you're welcome to post a comment below

this video and let me know if you agree

with me or disagree with me that's fine

we can have an intellectual conversation

about it and discuss the key data points

there is a lot of moving parts and

variables and so I just want to make

that clear I'm not saying I'm 100% right

as nobody is 100% right in trading and

investing and like Peter Lynch one of

the best fund managers of all time

famously said if you're right 60% of the

time in this business then you're

exceptional so let me make my case why I

think the FED will or at least should

start off with 25 basis points tomorrow

afternoon the first being retail sales

now I know this is just one data print

today however just looking at the

overall trend it's still holding up even

though I know a lot of consumers out

there are struggling just looking at the

overall Market even if it is the top 20

30% holding it up if we to believe the

numbers coming out from the Census

Bureau then retail sales increased 0.1%

in August from July and that was doing a

lot better than expectations from

economists who were actually expecting a

0.2% decrease July's Figures were also

revised upwards to 1.1 from 1% and so on

an annual basis sales Rose 2.1% not

absolutely fantastic especially when

adjust for inflation but also not

falling off a cliff either we also just

got industrial production numbers today

with it to increasing more than expected

in August however a month over month

came in at 0.8% well ahead of

expectations of 0.2% and better than the

previous read we got as well which was

actually negative and that actually

caused Goldman Sachs to increase their

Q3 GDP estimate to an annualized rate of

2.9% meaning they don't see the economy

Contracting just around the corner or

anytime soon that's quite a far way away

from the negative level it needs to be

to actually be in a recession and of

course GDP is a lagging indicator

however Goldman Sachs they're given

their tracking estimates going forward

based on a myriad of data and in fact

just looking at the Federal Reserves

Bank of Atlanta website and their GDP

now forecasting model which also gives a

forecast of GDP going forward they just

came out today increased it as well now

seen GDP growth in the third quarter

tracking at an annualized rate of 3%

even better than Goldman Sachs 2.8% and

that's up from 2.5% a week ago so in

other words GDP estimates are tracking

up not down they see the economy

expanding and so even though there is

definitely some softness in the jobs

Market unemployment rate is curling

upwards the fact is it's still well

within the fed's Mandate under 5%

inflation's not actually on a headline

print CPI down at the lower twos just

yet we just crossed three recently

credit markets are not freezing up highi

old bonds are actually breaking out to

52e highs suggesting they're looking

forward to lower interest rates while

the economy still holds up and I know

it's against consensus however there is

still a chance of continued soft Landing

scenario and just looking at the economy

overall key indicators and for my last

point the FED wants to be apolitical Jay

says politics doesn't play into his

decision- making however I think he

might be actually worried if he does go

50 basis points it looks like a really

political move right in front of the

election and could send the wrong signal

to the economy and to the market that

the fed's really worried about things

falling off a cliff here and starting

with 50 basis points could also be an

admission that he waited too long and

starting bigs usually reserved for when

things are really melting away like we

saw in the the GFC we s off the tech

Bubble Burst I mean we got the stock

market and the real estate market

sitting at all-time highs nothing wrong

in the credit markets unemployment rate

4.2% last CPI print in the high twos and

then Senators like Elizabeth Warren are

screaming out for a 75 basis point cut I

don't think so he's probably best to

leave some ammo in the bag so if things

do get bad he's got more basis points to

work with then he can come out with a

big cut however there's no need for an

emergency order to scramble right now in

my opinion I'm just speaking for what I

see and if I were J pal I would start

with 25 basis points but like I said of

course I could be wrong I just think the

odds favor starting 25 basis points but

that being said of course I wouldn't be

surprised if he does go 50 I don't think

it's necessary the market and certainly

many other people are calling for it in

which they could for sure be right if he

comes out and cuts 50 basis points

tomorrow I'll be the first one to say

that I was wrong and the market and

everybody else was right however at this

stage I'm going to stick to my

contrarian View and go against the

market pricing and think you'll most

likely not byy much start off small

tomorrow so make sure you come back to

the click Capital Channel tomorrow and

you can see whether I was right or wrong

and of course you're always welcome to

let me know your opinion and how you see

things I'm always interested to hear

your thoughts on all this as well but

just looking at the price action of key

markets going into tomorrow we actually

got a little bump up in treasury yields

today which is also Telling Me Maybe the

market is second guessing its heavy odds

of a 50 basis point cut even though

we're still in a really pronounced and

Swift downtrend and yield like I said it

wouldn't be that surprising if he does

that big cuz I mean just look at that

2-year yield over the last couple of

month absolutely front run what could be

actually half of the entire easing cycle

over the next year looking at the 2-year

at 360 just bumped up a little bit there

today same with the 10year at 364 and I

guess if they only did go 25 basis

points the contrarian play may be to

actually sell bonds they might pull back

tomorrow like the rate sensitive ETF TLT

cuz like I said it could be a case of

just a massive Pyon into short-dated

bonds as no one wants to own long dated

bonds anymore you look at Warren Buffett

it's got almost 300 billion pretty much

all of it is in short dated Bond he ears

next to nothing in duration and it was

this price action that was kind of given

me the heads up that the Fed was on the

cusp of cutting and I know at first

glance this looks like the Market's

screaming out recession really deep dark

one however like I always say we can't

rule out the possibility of a continued

soft Landing either could also just be

the market pricing and inflation coming

down really swiftly which it has been of

late thanks to crude oil and that rates

are going to come down thanks to

inflation while the economy keeps on

growing and that's why we've got highy

bonds actually on a tear doing even

better than treasury cuz they're not

worried about defaults on the issuers of

these bonds they expect them to keep

paying and so if economic growth holds

up with lower rates well then that's a

great place to be for high yield bonds

especially when the starting valuation

was a dividend yield over 5% and stick

with me cuz bit later on I'm going to

show you some interesting price action

coming out in currencies and commodities

as they could also be taking a bit of a

turn going into the start of this new

easing cycle and so I'd say a big

consensus trade out there has been to

get into short-term bonds however there

may not be much meat left on the bone

unless we really go into that deep dark

recession looking back in history if we

don't get that recession then you can

expect yields to jump back up over the

next year meaning bonds will go down as

there's an inverted relationship between

bond yields and bond prices and like we

can see here in the current orange line

of bond yields going into it they've

absolutely nose dive the last 3 4 months

those getting into short-term bonds now

may be a little late to the party and

like I said all this is coming when the

S&P 500 is sitting literally at all-time

highs and it'll be interesting to see

the S&P reaction tomorrow if he does

only go 25 basis points will the market

sell off because it's been really hoping

and pricing for 50 basis points there

could definitely be some volatility up

and down on the initial reaction what

about if he goes 50 will there be a big

rip and rally like we saw in September

2007 like I said one of the most

anticipated fed calls and Market days of

the year if not quite a few years

actually Morgan Stanley lays out the

stock market's best case scenario for

this week's fed decision two areas to

buy after the cut they also said the FED

will cut rates by half a point without

triggering growth worries and that Mike

Wilson noted the bond market is acting

like the FED is behind the curve he said

defensive and quality stocks are worth

earning after the rate cut on Wednesday

he's been calling to pull away from the

AI growth trade and position more

defensively let's see if he's right this

time he also supports large caps over

small caps and that defensives tend to

outperform cyclicals fairly persistently

both before and after the cut we also

got some other research saying history

says fed interest rate Cuts sets up a

crapshoot for stock market investors and

that there's no real consistent pattern

in stock returns following Fed rate cuts

and even though we sit here looking at

historical data facts and statistics all

day like I said there's always key

differences there's never a complete

mirror and duplication of a past

scenario but nonetheless it's the best

we've got to go off and it's not a bad

idea to keep in the back of your mind

what can happen what has happened what

is a range of possible outcome just

looking at the S&P 500 returns after

rate cuts on average markets lower 3

months later 1.1% higher 6 months later

by 4.4% and higher year later by 4.9%

there's a big difference between hard

cuts and soft cuts a hard cut a big cut

like 50 basis points typically

associated with a deteriorating economy

and stock market a soft cut typically

associated with a strong economy and

better stock market return and I know

this is a bit of a blurry chart but

basically this shows what happens when

the FED is cut with stocks at all-time

highs as defined by the S&P being within

2% of its all-time high looking back in

history that's happened 20 times before

straight away there's quite a bit of

volatility in the first month or two

Market can consolidate go up or down

before it really decides are we on a

growth path or are we on a recession

path however with the stock market

sitting at all-time highs going into

rate Cuts looking back in history those

20 times it's occurred a year later the

market is higher 100% of the time is

this time going to be different and like

I said there's always key differences

each and every time just got an

interesting meme posted on X today from

billionaire Mark Anderson who runs one

of the world's largest Venture Capital

firms in fact he was part of founding

Netscape first web browser for the

internet back in the early '90s he

points to key risks like World War III

which a lot of people are

underestimating how close we are to that

socialists and Jim Kramer saying he's

bullish with an annotation for his

Investments sweating on the way inside

to all this JP Morgan who's calling for

a 50 basis point cut said investors

should brace for lower stock market

returns over the next decade that older

investors May favor bonds over stocks

potentially lowering their Equity

allocations as more and more baby

boomers retire they point to current

High valuations suggesting future

returns might be lower with S&P 500's

priced to earning ratio 25% above its

35e average and that historically stock

valuations tend to revert to the mean

they said corporate growth bound to slow

down after the post-pandemic spurt we've

seen and potentially Rising corporate

taxes could stress profit margins along

with increased government antitrust

actions political instability

dollarization and other knock-on effects

from socialist policies but it's

interesting just looking at the Bank of

America Global fund manager survey along

the mag 7 Still Remains the most crowed

trade even though it is pulling back

here in the dark blue September light

blue August this year and in the gray

July also interesting we're seeing an

increase bet against China short Chinese

equities fund managers are starting to

come around to Gold slightly trimming

their positions in 2-year bonds

increasing their position in corporate

bonds and significantly pulling back

their position in the short Japanese Yen

the carry trade and we've seen that in

Yen Futures as well with the latest

positioning from cftc with the

positioning here in the gray inverted

chart level in the dollar yen in the red

in other words big speculators big money

is getting long the Japanese Yen the

anti- carry trade and as's a look at Yen

Futures as you can see pretty much gone

parabolic this last couple of months a

lot of volume coming in and just going

out to a monthly chart this is coming

off multi-year lows this Yen carry trade

on wine could still have a lot further

to go as I recently showed on the Big

Mac index Japanese yen is significantly

undervalued fundamentally it's not just

the Yen it's more of a case of a weak US

dollar because look at Euro FX Futures

as well strong signs of accumulation

uptrending and we're starting to see

some signs of accumulation potential

bottoms and moves up off those Bottoms

in commodity markets which have been

weak for a few months really helped

inflation come down there's soybean

Futures corn Futures having a bit of a

pop there's wheat trading up sugar

actually ripping up today on volume

coffee actually breaking out to new 52-

we highs the really hot cocoa trade at

the start of this year still

consolidating somewhat bit of a bump up

yesterday for cotton there's copper just

slightly ticking higher orange juice

trading up gas still really weak crude

is having a bounce the last few days

silver track back to 52 we highs and of

course we all know about gold sitting

pretty as well and so like I said it's

not just the Japanese Yen that's

strengthening it's more of a case of the

US dollar weakening is still currently

sitting at this big support level Market

looking to see whether we can Bounce

from here or will it give way and we

potentially get confirmation of a new

downtrend giving further Tailwinds to

Commodities and international stocks but

also just looking at this interesting

chart here once again from the Bank of

America and their Global fund manager

survey in the dark blue the net

percentage of them expecting a strong ER

economy in the next 12 months overlaid

in the light blue the S&P 500's

year-over-year percentage change and so

it's a little bit contrarian as usual

what most of the market thinks quite

often the opposite can happen we saw

that in late 2000 we see as people get

really pessimistic and expect a weaker

economy it's often near the lows of the

market then when they're really

optimistic on expecting a stronger

economy the market can then pull back

and we really saw that in mid late 2022

there was really palpable pessimism in

the market lows F manager overall are

still really pessimistic especially when

it comes to China fact we're at

multi-year lows the amount of people

expecting a stronger Chinese economy

also interesting today to see a pop up

in Bitcoin really a bit of a political

football now it's acting like gold

anticipating a lot of rate environment

is beneficial for these anti- Fiat

currencies with it maybe pricing in a 50

basis point cut today maybe getting a

little excited and so I'd say Bitcoin is

more linked to liquidity and siment and

risk on kind of regimes in the market

than gold we've seen a lot of

correlation with Bitcoin the NASDAQ meme

stocks over last couple of years and so

if we do get that continued soft Landing

with rate cuts that could be maybe even

more beneficial to bitcoin instead of

gold even after adjusting for beta as

bitcoin's obviously a lot more volatile

than gold and just moving on to

something I've also just heard about

just hitting the news wise Hezbollah

accuses Israel as thousands hurt and

unusual pag blasts at least eight people

have been killed and a huge

2,750 have been injured as Israelis

Target the militant group of Hezbollah

and their key members causing pages to

belong to to them of actually just

blowing up right in their pocket or as

they hold it and just looking at some

social commentary coming out from this

attack from the open source intelligence

monitor if this attack was committed by

Israel it is beyond unprecedented and it

totally changes how asymmetric and

unconventional warfare will take place

across the middle east in the future we

also got open source Intel this is

possibly the largest military attack in

history with the least civilian damage

with them also going on to say a

Hezbollah intelligence official has

stated that the encrypted Pages were set

to beep beep several times before then

exploding near the head or abdomen of

the victim with the explosion believed

now to have originated from within the

lithium battery of the pager with

another person saying Israel managing to

hack Hezbollah Pages which the

terrorists used to communicate and avoid

being tracked as they got rid of all

their mobile phones as Israel was using

them to track and strike key officials

they all went under pages and

simultaneously explode all of them is

one of the baddest ass counterterrorism

moves of all time even billionaire hedge

fund manager chiming in on it saying go

going forward terorists will no longer

use devices that have chips and lithium

batteries that should be a hit to their

productivity and Effectiveness with the

intelligence monitor also going on if

this doesn't lead to fullscale war

between Israel and Hezbollah I don't

think anything ever will and so what a

clever way for the Israelis to attack

their enemy a lot of people

underestimate how technologically savvy

the Israelis are Head and Shoulders

above anyone else in the region and

they've just proven that once again

today with their precise and targeted

attack current admin's really hoping

things are cool down there going into

the election but once again the Israelis

are not willing to back down and this is

probably what's keeping a bit of a

geopolitical premium in gold and maybe

coming a little bit back to oil as this

still has the potential to blow up into

a fullscale regional War America still

has a record amount of military Assets

in the region ready to respond to a

large scale attack from Iran and all

definitely seems to have found support

on those mid-60s level which looking at

the weekly chart is a key area where the

market has turned a number of times

before we saw that early last year and

so before these Commodities bounce back

and the FED does cut by 50 basis points

we're just setting up for Resurgence and

inflation next year and in fact the 50

basis point cut would actually benefit

me the most in my portfolio probably

just the stock market in general but

also the potential Resurgence of

inflation popping up Commodities

weakening the US dollar that helps

International stocks which I'm also

invested in so don't get me wrong I

won't be upset if the FED cuts by 50

basis points I'm just going off the data

and giving you my honest opinion that I

think they'll most likely Go 25 and

there's a look at that agricultural

commodity fund actually tracking up to

52 we highs as well so surely I think J

Pal's got to be mindful of the risks to

inflation coming back that he has to

balance out with trying to get in front

of a potential recession like I said the

economy is not really diving off a cliff

right here and now there's no real

present emergency he started off the

whole rate hiking cycle with 25 basis

points why can't he start off easing the

same he didn't even blink in the

regional banking crisis early last year

as well looked like things were falling

off a cliff he actually kept on hiking

Shan that he does have some guts to stay

the path and like I said maybe it's just

the market really pricing and low

inflation and let's not forget no

markets right 100% of the time even

government bonds can be wrong we can see

Swift repricing and that's how you get

big moves in the market all markets are

pretty much trying to price in what's

around the corner 3 months out 6 months

out 12 months out however if what

materializes is different than what's

priced that's how you get those big

moves in the market the repricing

because one of these markets is wrong is

it High Yield Corporate bonds are we

already in a recession like Jeffrey

gunlock says cuz if so these should then

fall off a cliff just like they did back

in 2008 how your bonds got smashed and

so once again I'm hard pressed to find

any decent article to do with gold

across Financial media and this isn't

just a conspiracy of mine it's actually

backed up by data looking at a chart

here over the last 7 years price of gold

here in Blue Line as we all know sitting

at all-time highs however in the white

bars here is the amount of stories

across media about gold and it's

interesting isn't it currently sitting

near multi-year lows almost like an

inverse relationship gold was flat a lot

of the media was talking about it

however in general since early 2021

that's been downtrending the media is

talking less and less about gold these

last couple of years than prior to that

whereas it should be at all-time highs

big key market like gold breaking out

the media should be all over it like a

rash however not so much and another

bullish thing for a lot of commodity

markets is we're getting big Divergence

in the price of oil and these commodity

cuz a lot of miners use a lot of oil to

dig all their minerals and metals out of

the ground really energy intensive

operations so when you've got oil coming

down which pulls down a lot of things

the cost of digging goes down while the

price you can sell your Goods at goes up

that just increases profit margins and

so hopefully Ai and increased oil supply

keeps the price of oil really low for

years ahead while the infinite supply of

US Dollars helps to propel other

Commodities higher and higher that's

just going to further increase mining

margins and as they're coming off

multi-decade lows and valuation metrics

that just adds to my bullish thesis for

being invested in Commodities going

forward and just rounding out my market

market analysis today with a bit of

insight on the world's richest men seen

a big jump up lately of Larry Allison

from Oracle the guy's looking really

good for 80 years old at the top of his

game he owns a lot of Tesla shares he's

been a big believer in Elon Musk for a

long time and of course he founded the

number one database company in the world

Oracle getting in on the AI boom been a

large beneficiary of the cloud and his

stock ripping up to all-time highs

making him the fourth richest person in

the world only after Elon Musk Jeff

Bezos Mark Zuckerberg got Bernard ANL of

Louis faton Gates andama mic Larry Page

Sergio Brin alphabet Google Warren

Buffett Amano ortiga big retailer coming

out of Spain Muk shambani energy

conglomerate out of India Dell still up

there Jim Walton of Walmart coming in

number 15 Jensen hang Nvidia all worth

above 100 billion interesting out of the

top 15 richest men 10 of them come from

the technology sector also interesting

quite a few of these companies were only

created in the last 20 30 years look at

Mark Zuckerberg he only came onto the

market bit over 10 years ago

unfortunately I can't present the same

prosperity for younger people even

though over the last 20 30 years we've

seen the biggest expansion in capital

markets stock market real estate the 1%

never been as Rich the federal

government never spent as much never

been in as much debt Federal Reserve

never printed as much money all of that

stuff highly inflated the pie just not

for everybody and we can see that in the

share of us 30-y olds and again this is

not just in America this is largely

across the West you'll see the same

Trends who are living on their own going

down meaning they're still living with

their parents and looking over the last

40 years the percent that have ever

mared married now below half less and

less Millennials having children now

getting down to the low 30s 30y olds and

a percent that own their own home also

down towards 30% so have we seen the

bottom in these Trends or are they going

to keep going down towards zero while

the top 1% keep going up to 100 and will

something eventually break and cause

this to reverse or are we going to keep

living with corporate and government

socialism and capitalism for the rest of

us all right guys that pretty much wraps

it up for today on the eve of the First

Rate cut in this new easing cycle J

power going to start small 25 basis

points or is he going to go big with 50

basis points I've made it clear what my

opinion is unlike others I won't sit on

the fence and play it safe I'm going to

put my neck out there take the

contrarian bet go against the market go

against JP Morgan go against

billionaires Jeffrey gunlock and I'm

going to say 25 basis points of course I

could be wrong I'll be the first to

admit it tomorrow if I am however at

this stage I think the odds slightly

favor 25 basis points you're welcome to

disagree with me and offer some

constructive criticism let me know what

your thoughts are why you think they may

go 50 or why you may think they'll go 25

like I do thanks again for watching

click capital and I look forward to

diving in and breaking down all the

action and moves we get out of markets

tomorrow it's going to be a good one

guys I'll see you then cheers