The way it ALL ENDS: the five endgames that all women face
Summary
TLDRDr. Orion Taraban discusses the modern sexual marketplace and its implications for women, highlighting the phenomenon of female hypergamy and the increasing difficulty for women to find partners as they age. The talk explores the traditional gender roles in courtship, the changing dynamics between men and women, and the potential outcomes for women based on their choices and societal trends. Dr. Taraban suggests that most women will end up with a suitable partner, but not necessarily their first choice, leading to potential marital dissatisfaction.
Takeaways
- 📉 The current sexual marketplace sees fewer people marrying, entering relationships, or even hooking up than ever before, with female hypergamy being a primary driver.
- 🎓 Childless women under 30 in the West are outperforming men in education and earnings, contributing to the trend of women 'dating up'.
- 💍 Traditional gender roles persist, with men expected to make the first move in relationships, a norm that has not evolved with changing societal views.
- 👩🦳 As women age, their sexual market value decreases, leading to a smaller pool of suitable partners and a potential mismatch with their expectations.
- 🔄 The dynamics of the sexual marketplace change at 30, when men's sexual market value typically exceeds women's for the first time.
- 🏆 High-performing men have more options and may be reluctant to commit to one person, creating a paradox where women's demands become more expensive over time.
- 🤔 There are five possible end games for women in the current sexual marketplace, ranging from securing a high-value man to remaining unpartnered.
- 🛍️ Women's reluctance to lower their 'price tags' (expectations) makes it less likely for them to secure a high-value man as time goes on.
- 👜 The analogy of designer bags suggests that most women are not in the 'one percent' and thus less likely to 'afford' or attract the top 10 percent of men.
- 🧍♀️ Approximately 25% of women are unmarried by 40, and the trend suggests that this figure may continue to rise, with many women unintentionally remaining childless.
- 🌟 The key to navigating the sexual marketplace is adaptability; women who adjust their expectations to the changing conditions are more likely to secure the relationship they desire.
Q & A
What is the main topic of Dr. Orion Taraban's talk?
-The main topic of Dr. Orion Taraban's talk is the current state of the sexual marketplace, focusing on the phenomenon of fewer people getting married, entering relationships, or even hooking up, and the implications of female hypergamy and the changing dynamics between men and women in the context of relationships.
What is the significance of the statement 'it all ends' in the title of the talk?
-The statement 'it all ends' refers to the potential outcomes or 'end games' for women in the context of the sexual marketplace, particularly as they age and face the consequences of the existing dynamics between men and women in relationships.
Why does the speaker mention that fewer people are getting married, entering into relationships, or hooking up than ever before?
-The speaker mentions this trend to highlight the unprecedented lows in relationship formation and to explore the reasons behind it, including female hypergamy and the success of young women relative to young men, which affects the dynamics of the sexual marketplace.
What is 'female hypergamy' as discussed in the script?
-Female hypergamy refers to the tendency of women to seek partners who are of a higher status, earning, or educational level than themselves. This is a significant factor in the current dynamics of the sexual marketplace, as it contributes to the challenge of finding suitable partners, especially for high-performing young women.
How does the speaker describe the role of women as 'gatekeepers of sex' and men as 'gatekeepers of commitment'?
-The speaker describes women as 'gatekeepers of sex' because, traditionally and in most cultures, women have more control over when and with whom they engage in sexual relationships. Men are referred to as 'gatekeepers of commitment' because they are typically expected to make the first move towards a more committed relationship, such as marriage.
What is the significance of the age of 30 in the context of the sexual marketplace value (SMV) for men and women?
-The age of 30 is significant because it is the point at which the average male's sexual marketplace value exceeds that of the average woman's for the first time. This shift in SMV affects the dynamics of relationship formation and the perceived 'cost' of the 'offer' men make to women.
What are the five possible 'end games' for women as discussed in the script?
-The five possible 'end games' for women are: (A) keeping their standards high and securing a high-value man, (B) lowering their standards to secure a high-value man, (C) keeping their standards high but settling for a lower-value man, (D) lowering their standards but still settling for a lower-value man, and (E) neither securing nor settling, resulting in remaining unpartnered.
Why does the speaker suggest that scenario A (keeping price tags high and securing a high-value man) is the least likely outcome?
-Scenario A is considered the least likely outcome because men with high sexual marketplace value have many options and are unlikely to 'settle' for one woman when they can have multiple potential partners. Additionally, as women age and their SMV decreases, the 'offer' from men remains the same, making it increasingly expensive and less attractive for high-value men to commit.
What is the speaker's perspective on the trend of women remaining unmarried and childless?
-The speaker acknowledges that the trend of women remaining unmarried and childless is increasing, especially among high-earning women with advanced degrees. However, they suggest that for many women, this outcome is unintentional and not necessarily desired, particularly as societal expectations and personal desires for family and commitment can change with age.
How does the speaker use the analogy of designer bags to explain women's choices in the sexual marketplace?
-The speaker uses the analogy of designer bags to illustrate how women may be willing to pay a high 'price tag' (high standards) for a product (partner) that they perceive as being of high value. However, they also point out that most women are not in the 'one percent' and may need to lower their standards (price tags) to find a suitable partner, similar to how a consumer might opt for a discounted or less expensive product if the high-value item is out of reach.
What advice does the speaker offer to women based on the discussion?
-The speaker advises women to be aware of the changing dynamics and potential outcomes in the sexual marketplace as they age. They suggest that women should consider their options and the likelihood of different outcomes, and that they may need to adjust their expectations or 'price tags' to secure a relationship that they desire.
Outlines
🌟 Introduction to the Sexual Marketplace and Female Hypergamy
Dr. Orion taraban introduces the topic of the video, which is the current state of the sexual marketplace and how it affects women. He notes that fewer people are getting married or entering relationships, and attributes this trend partly to female hypergamy. He discusses how childless women under 30 are outperforming men in various metrics, leading to a smaller pool of suitable partners due to women's tendency to 'mate up'. The video also touches on the traditional gender roles in courtship, where men are expected to make the first move, and questions why this custom persists despite changes in other gender norms.
📈 Possible Outcomes for Women in the Sexual Marketplace
The video outlines five potential outcomes for women in the sexual marketplace, based on their hypergamy and the dynamics of male-female interactions. These outcomes range from women successfully securing a high-value man to ending up unpartnered. The speaker emphasizes that the likelihood of each outcome varies, with some being more plausible than others. He uses the analogy of purchasing a designer bag to explain why women might opt for different strategies in the mating market, ultimately affecting their choices and the potential outcomes.
🎯 Analyzing the Dynamics of Mate Selection and Competition
This paragraph delves into the dynamics of mate selection, highlighting the competition among women for the top 10 percent of men and the paradox that arises from it. The speaker explains that the men who are most desirable are least likely to commit, as they have many options. He argues that most women will not end up with the 'Versace' of men, as they are not in the 'one percent' of women who can 'afford' such a high-value partner. The discussion also touches on the reality that many women will face the choice between settling for less or remaining single, and predicts that a significant portion will end up with lower-value men who are willing to pay a higher 'price tag'.
🕰️ The Changing Game for Women Over Time
The speaker discusses how the 'game' changes for women as they age, particularly after the age of 30, when the average male's sexual market value exceeds that of the average woman's for the first time. He emphasizes the importance of planning for the future, as many women unintentionally end up childless or in less desirable relationships. The speaker also notes that high-earning, highly educated women are more likely to face challenges in the mating market due to their age, career focus, and resistance to lowering their standards, leading to a higher likelihood of unintentional childlessness and settling for less in relationships.
💡 Final Thoughts on Relationship Dynamics and Choices
In the conclusion, the speaker reflects on the distribution of endgame likelihoods for women based on their strategies in the sexual marketplace. He suggests that most women will end up with a 'serviceable option' but may not secure their first choice of partner. The speaker encourages women to consider the value of their potential partners beyond their perceived 'market value' and to reframe their expectations to find happiness in their relationships. He also reminds viewers that the current odds are the most favorable they will face and encourages them to reflect on the discussion in the comments section.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Female Hypergamy
💡Sexual Marketplace Value (SMV)
💡Gatekeepers of Sex and Commitment
💡Intersexual Competition
💡End Games
💡Behavioral Economics
💡Unpartnered and Childless
💡Reproductive Window
💡Low-Grade Marital Dysfunction
💡Rational Decision-Making
💡Market Dynamics
Highlights
The current state of the sexual marketplace is at historically unprecedented lows with fewer people getting married, entering relationships, or even hooking up.
Female hypergamy, where women tend to mate and date up, is a primary driver for the decline in relationships and marriages.
Young women are outperforming men in almost every quantifiable metric, especially in education and earnings.
Despite modern views, the traditional gender role of men making the first move in relationships persists.
The average male's sexual marketplace value exceeds the average woman's for the first time at age 30.
As women's sexual marketplace value decreases with age, the same offer from men becomes increasingly expensive over time.
There are five possible end games for women in the sexual marketplace, ranging from securing a high-value man to remaining unpartnered.
High-performing attractive young women set a high barrier to entry, leading to intense intersexual competition.
Men who have what women want are the least likely to commit, as they have more options available to them.
The least likely outcome for women is to keep their standards high and secure a high-value man, as this only happens about one percent of the time.
The most likely outcome for women is to end up with a lower value man who is willing to pay a higher price tag.
About one in four women will end up unpartnered and childless, a proportion that is rapidly growing.
Many women unintentionally end up childless, with the highest proportion being among high-earning women with advanced degrees.
The fear of missing out and societal pressure can lead women to settle for less desirable relationships.
Most women end up with the relationship they want but not with the man they would prefer, leading to low-grade marital dysfunction.
The key to a satisfying relationship may be reframing the value of what is attainable rather than focusing on what is out of reach.
The current odds ratios are skewed against women as they age, and their best chance to secure the desired relationship may be now.
Transcripts
I'm Dr Orion taraban and this is cycax
Better Living Through psychology and the
topic of today's short talk is the way
it all ends
so this is a long one but it's an
important one it's also one for the
ladies so guys forward this on to your
sisters and daughters they need to hear
this
all right let's start by taking a high
level look at the state of the sexual
Marketplace in the present day shall we
fewer people are getting married
entering into relationships or even
hooking up than ever before all three of
these things are at historically
unprecedented lows and there are many
many reasons for this however one of the
primary drivers of this phenomenon as
discussed in the previous episode is
female hypergamy
coupled with the reality that in the
west young women are doing very well
childless women under 30 are
outperforming men in that demographic in
almost every quantifiable metric and
most notably in education and earning
yay women
that said if women retain their tendency
to mate and date up and if young men are
underperforming relative to young women
then there will simply be a smaller and
smaller pool from which most women would
be willing to select a partner and since
women are The Gatekeepers of sex and Men
Are The Gatekeepers of commitment and
since sex precedes commitment in the
west we see the trickle-down effect
mentioned before less sex leads to fewer
relationships leads to fewer marriages
now this would actually be a much easier
problem to solve were it not for one
little thing namely women despite all
their modern ideas about gender sex and
power are still waiting for the offer
as discussed previously across all
cultures and throughout history the man
has been expected to proposition the
woman
this proposition can range from you up
to can I buy you a drink sometime to
will you marry me but it is always the
man who makes the offer to the woman
and this is peculiar because there
doesn't seem to be like a necessary
reason for this like if we can
collectively question the necessity of
pretty much every other traditional
gender role I'm not sure why this one
has survived to the present day and just
for the record I would love to be taken
out to dinner like if you want to make
all the plans and pay for everything or
if you want to invite me over for a
home-cooked meal I would be thrilled to
show up and look pretty
provided of course you are sufficiently
attractive you meet all of my criteria
and you don't assume I'm just going to
sleep with you because that would be
creepy and my eyes are up here
in any case and for whatever reason
women don't seem interested in occupying
this traditionally male role in the
courtship process at all ages and at all
levels of commitment they are still
waiting for the offer now on the surface
this doesn't seem to cause too many
problems for women in their 20s the
offers might be coming in hard and fast
and it may reasonably seem like it's
only a matter of time before an even
better offer comes in and they'll accept
when they're ready however this attitude
while understandable leads to a number
of Fairly predictable Downstream
consequences this is because the game
changes at 30.
previously discussed 30 is the age at
which the average male sexual
Marketplace value exceeds the average
woman's sexual Marketplace value for the
very first time
and since men are presumably expected to
make the same ultimate offer namely
marriage or a lifetime of commitment
protection and provision to a woman in
her 20s as to a woman in her 30s or
Beyond
and since women's sexual Marketplace
value decreases across the same timeline
all other things being equal the same
offer becomes increasingly expensive as
the woman ages
I'll say that again in a slightly
different way since the offer is the
same but a woman's sexual Marketplace
value decreases as she ages the same
offer becomes increasingly expensive as
a function of time
what this generally means is that if
women don't adapt to changing conditions
they may find themselves priced out of
the market especially since they seem
hell-bent against making the offer this
is why Mick Jagger crooned that time was
on his side
yes it is
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all right let's try to put this all
together shall we given all the factors
that we've discussed thus far female
hypergamy young women's success relative
to young men changing smv as a function
of time and the fact that women aren't
making offers to men there are actually
only a few different ways this can
possibly turn out in fact if we play the
chess out 20 moves we see that there are
only five possible end games here for
women
can't give the exact odd ratios but some
are much more plausible than others
let's briefly walk through all five
scenarios
remember
High performing attractive young women
set an extremely high barrier to entry
their success coupled with their
hypergamy means that there are fewer
potential mating and dating options for
them their price tags the value required
to overcome their entry barriers to a
sexual relationship are very very high
and since the majority of women are
gunning for the same top 10 percent of
men the intersexual competition is
astounding
now on the other hand while women are
doing very well the men to whom they are
hypergamously attracted are by
definition doing even better
these 10 percent of men have incredible
optionality and they may understandably
be reticent to forego the buffet for the
same meal for the rest of their lives
this creates the ironic Paradox that the
men who have what women want are the
least likely to give it to them
let me say that again the men who have
what women want are the least likely to
give it to them from their perspective
the women's demands are too expensive
and they only become more expensive as a
function of time
and this phenomenon will intensify as
the trends we've discussed continue
what this means is that given the
assumptions I've already mentioned there
are only five end games for women as
you'll see they logically cover all
possible outcomes here they are
a women keep their price tags High beat
out the intersexual competition and
secure the high value man
B women lower their price tags in order
to beat out the intersexual competition
and secure the high value man
C women keep their price tags High fail
to beat out the intersexual competition
and settle for a lower value man
D women lower their price tags still
fail to beat out the intersexual
competition and settle for a low value
man
and E women neither secure nor settle
and end up unpartnered there are
literally no other ways for the game to
end
so which outcome is most likely
feel free to pause the episode and take
a guess
now since we're talking about behavioral
economics and the exchange of value the
easiest way to approach an answer to
this question is to consider what you a
woman would do if you were shopping
to that end would you ever ever buy the
exact same product from one vendor if
you could get it more cheaply and easily
somewhere else
of course not
and that's why though this is going to
be hard for some women to appreciate the
most unlikely outcome by far
is scenario a
keeping your price tag high with men who
are Awash in optionality ain't gonna
lead to a sale
that's it do you sometimes pay much more
for a product from one vendor even
though you could get a similar product
more cheaply and easily elsewhere
you do
almost every woman I know owns a
designer bag which is a sack to hold
things
you don't need to spend thousands of
dollars on a sack but you do need to
spend thousands of dollars on a Versace
sack now Versace can charge thousands of
dollars for a sack because they have
demonstrated proof that women will pay
thousands of dollars they can beat out
all the other sacks they are the one
percent of sacks and a woman needs to be
a one percent woman
to have a Versace price tag By
definition most women are not one
percent women
they will lose to the intersexual
competition for the top 10 percent of
men
if they keep their price tags High
this is not because these men can't
afford the price tag but because like
you they are not going to spend more
than they need to for the exact same
product so scenario a is the least
likely it only happens about one percent
of the time
next appreciate the fact that even if
every one of these top 10 percent of men
wanted to get married and settle down
and they definitely don't that would
mean by definition a maximum of only 10
percent of women could possibly end up
with one of these high value men and
since one percent of women end up in
scenario a and since roughly one-third
of the remaining men in this category by
a conservative estimation will be
uninterested in settling down at any one
time this means that about six percent
of women can possibly end up in scenario
B making it the second least likely
outcome
and of course the cost of securing this
outcome is women lowering their price
tags women are you more likely to buy
the Versace sack at full retail or when
it's on sale even if you could afford
the full retail wouldn't you be more
motivated to act by the discount
of course you would because that's
rational and if Versace wants to reach a
clientele that would otherwise be priced
out of its regular product that is
exactly what Versace needs to do
excellent we've covered the first two
options and there are still 93 percent
of women left unaccounted for where are
they going to go
well since we know that 25 percent of
women are unmarried at 40. a figure
that's increased a whopping 25 in just
the last 10 years and seven percent of
women end up in the first two categories
that means that about two-thirds of
women will face endgames C and D
and since my impression is that women
reproductive window notwithstanding
would genuinely and understandably
prefer to remain unpartnered than resign
themselves to a less desirable
relationship with a lower value man I
don't think there's an equal split here
that said the desire for children and
commitment can be very powerful in women
especially as they age so there is a
split to be made
my hunch is that about 15 percent of
women end up in scenario D they lower
their price tags still fail to beat out
the intersexual competition and settle
for a lower value man making it the
third least likely outcome
and these women typically end up here
out of pressure necessity
women would you ever pay twenty dollars
for a mediocre sandwich probably if you
were at the airport and you didn't plan
properly
in this scenario the prospect of going
12 hours without food is more
distasteful than being gouged for a
disappointing meal you will be willing
to pay more for less if the prospect of
going entirely without is more painful
seen from the opposite perspective this
is why producers who create on a regular
Cadence everyone from car manufacturers
to fashion designers to local bakeries
radically discount their products right
before the newer fresher products are
released
this is designed to capture customers
who for whatever reason are unwilling or
unable to wait just a little bit longer
for a better option hence pressured
necessity if you need the sale and your
product is expiring this is how you
motivate action
now next up is scenario e
these are women who are unable to secure
and unwilling to settle and they
constitute a rapidly growing proportion
of the population as of right now about
one in Four Women will face this end
game and I think it will soon become one
in three making it the second most
likely outcome
it's too harsh to say that these women
end up alone after all there are people
everywhere with whom you can have
satisfying relationships but they end up
unpartnered and childless
in 2020 nearly 60 percent of women under
30 in the U.S were childless and frankly
this doesn't seem to bother most women
in this demographic many of them are
thriving making good money traveling the
world prioritizing their friends and
their interests and receiving lots of
offers however as I can apparently never
say enough the game changes at 30. just
like a lot changes between the ages of
19 and 29 A lot changes between the ages
of 29 and 39.
Windows shorten clocks wind down and the
fear of missing out rears its ugly head
failing to plan is planning to fail
according to a 2010 meta-analysis only
10 percent of ultimately childless women
actively chose not to become mothers and
about 10 percent of the remaining women
could not become mothers due to medical
reasons that means about 80 percent of
women who never have children arrived at
this outcome unintentionally
and this is not an even distribution
across all women the proportion of
unintentionally childless women is
significantly the highest among
high-earning women
with Advanced degrees
namely
with the women who were performing so
well in their 20s
men are typically not as interested in
making offers to these women not as is
commonly believed because they are
intimidated by successful women that is
a cope for the women in question but
because these successful women are older
it takes time to get an advanced degree
and build a career and as we've seen all
other things being equal the same offer
becomes more expensive as a function of
time
these women are also the least likely to
surrender their hypergamous Tendencies
after all they've worked very hard to
get to where they are so why would or
should they settle
it's an excellent question however the
upshot here is that these women tend to
price themselves out of the market more
frequently than their less educated
lower earning and younger competition
and that leaves scenario C since these
five end games cover all the mutually
exclusive outcomes we can estimate that
53 percent or roughly half of all women
will end up with lower value men willing
to pay a higher price tag
while a high value man with lots of
options may not be willing to offer say
sexual exclusivity or a lifetime
commitment a lower value man who might
not be able to access the same sexual
opportunity otherwise might
these men must offer more to compensate
for their lower attractiveness this
means that most women end up with the
relationship they want but not with the
man they would prefer
and this is what leads to a lot of
low-grade marital dysfunction as Chris
Rock put it the number one reason why
your woman's always mad is because you
ain't her first choice
link below
not all women can afford a Versace sack
but that typically doesn't stop them
from wanting one and this can make them
envious and unhappy especially if
they're scrolling
on the other hand some women can
successfully resolve this dissonance by
making a virtue out of a necessity which
all things being equal is actually a
very useful reframe that is rather than
focus on the sack they wanted but
couldn't afford they recast the knockoff
they bought at a significant discount as
just as good after all the knockoff sack
can hold at least as much as the Versace
sack and it may even be the more
practical accessory for most occasions
so what's the upshot at the end of the
day most women will end up with a
perfectly serviceable option so there's
no need to give in to Panic or dread
so this is the approximate distribution
of endgame likelihood when we look 20
moves ahead and this distribution hinges
on women's continued reticence to make
the offer whether it's for a date or for
a lifetime of provision the game will
change significantly if and when they
cross that threshold but this is how it
roughly looks under the current state of
play
just keep in mind that these are kind of
Ideal odds ratios they skew more
disadvantageously to the women as the
years go by
for most women they will never have a
better chance of securing the
relationship they want with the man they
prefer
than today
this has been real talk with psychics
what do you think let me know in the
comments below and if you've gotten this
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