SHOCKING ALASKA POLL: Donald Trump Leads by FOUR in SOLID Red State
Summary
TLDRA recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows a surprising five-point lead for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold. This shift, possibly influenced by the presidential debate and the state's changing political landscape, signals potential trouble for Republicans. The poll's accuracy in predicting past elections lends credibility to these findings, suggesting Alaska could become a battleground state in future elections.
Takeaways
- 📊 A recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by only 5 points among likely voters in Alaska, signaling a tighter race than expected.
- 🔍 The poll was conducted post-debate, suggesting that the debate may have influenced voter sentiment, with only 29% believing Trump won versus 52% for Harris.
- 🏳️🌈 Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has seen a shift away from the GOP since Sarah Palin's vice presidential run in 2008, possibly impacting Trump's numbers.
- 📉 Trump's lead of 48% to 44% is a significant drop from his double-digit victories in 2016 and 2020, indicating a potential vulnerability for Republicans.
- 🤔 The poll's accuracy is highlighted by its successful prediction of Mary Peltola's special election win in 2022, despite Alaska's challenging polling landscape.
- 🗳️ Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting system and the influence of Native American voters, who tend to lean Democratic, contribute to the state's changing political dynamics.
- 🔎 The poll's findings could be a microcosm of a larger national trend, with voters potentially turning away from Trump's 'Make America Great Again' style of politics.
- 🚨 For Republicans, the narrowing margins in Alaska are a warning sign that they cannot afford to lose any vote share from 2020 if they wish to win in 2024.
- 🌐 The implications of Alaska's shifting political landscape could extend beyond 2024, potentially making it a target for Democrats in future election cycles.
- 📈 The debate's impact and Alaska's changing political climate may be indicative of a broader rejection of Trump's policies and persona among voters.
Q & A
What is the current polling advantage of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in Alaska according to the new poll?
-The new poll shows Donald Trump with a five-point advantage over Kamala Harris in Alaska.
When was the poll conducted that shows the current standings between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Alaska?
-The poll was conducted after the debate on September 11th through September 12th.
What was the voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election in Alaska for Donald Trump?
-In the 2020 presidential election, Alaska voted for Donald Trump by double digits.
How has Alaska's political landscape shifted since Sarah Palin was on the ticket in 2008?
-Alaska has seen a unique change and shift away from the Republican party since Sarah Palin was on the ticket in 2008, with a closer race in recent elections.
What was the percentage of voters in Alaska who said they watched the presidential debate?
-67% of the surveyed voters in Alaska said they watched the presidential debate.
Which candidate did more voters in Alaska believe won the presidential debate, according to the poll?
-52% of voters said Kamala Harris won the debate, compared to 29% who said Donald Trump won.
What is the significance of the 2022 special election in Alaska for the state's political dynamics?
-The 2022 special election in Alaska, where Mary Peltola won, was significant as it showed a shift in the state's political dynamics and was accurately predicted by Alaska Survey Research.
How accurate was Alaska Survey Research's prediction in the 2022 special election for Alaska's House seat?
-Alaska Survey Research was highly accurate in predicting the 2022 special election results, with only minor differences in the predicted and actual percentages.
What is the historical significance of Alaska's House seat win by a Democrat in the 2022 special election?
-The 2022 special election was the first Democratic victory in Alaska since before Roe v. Wade was written into law, marking a significant change in the state's political landscape.
Why might Alaska become a target for Democrats in future election cycles?
-If Alaska continues to show a narrowing gap in favor of the Republican party, as indicated by the current polling data, it may become a target for Democrats in future election cycles, especially if it becomes a swing state.
What does the current polling data suggest about the potential for Alaska to be competitive in the 2024 election?
-The current polling data suggests that Alaska could be more competitive in the 2024 election than in previous years, with Donald Trump's lead being significantly narrower than in 2016 and 2020.
Outlines
📊 Alaska's Shifting Political Landscape
The script discusses a recent poll from Alaska Survey Research indicating a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Trump leads with a slim margin of 47% to 42% among 1,254 likely voters, which is a significant change from previous years where Alaska was a solidly Republican state. The poll was conducted post-debate, and the results suggest that Alaska, which voted for Trump by double digits in 2020, may be shifting. The script also notes that Alaska has seen a unique change since Sarah Palin's vice-presidential run in 2008, with Democrats like Mary Peltola making inroads. The debate's impact is evident, as only 29% of surveyed Alaskans felt Trump won, compared to 52% for Harris. This could signal a larger national trend of dissatisfaction with Trump's performance.
🗳️ Historical Voting Patterns and Special Elections in Alaska
This paragraph delves into Alaska's historical voting patterns, noting that while Democrats haven't won the state in decades, recent elections show a closer race. It references the 2022 special election where Mary Peltola won with 39.7% of the vote against a combined Republican vote share of around 60%. The script highlights the accuracy of Alaska Survey Research's predictions during this special election, where they correctly forecasted Peltola's victory over Sarah Palin. It also discusses how Alaska's unique ranked-choice voting system and the influence of Native American voters might be contributing to these shifts. The paragraph suggests that Alaska's political climate is changing, with voters moving away from traditional Republican figures like Palin towards more moderate or Democratic candidates.
🔍 The Impact of National Figures on Alaskan Politics
The script explores how national figures like Donald Trump and Sarah Palin are impacting Alaskan politics. It suggests that Trump's association with Palin, who was once popular but has fallen out of favor, is driving voters away from the Republican party. The paragraph discusses how Alaska, which was once a safe Republican state, is now competitive due to these figures. It also mentions the 2022 special election where Peltola's win was the first Democratic victory in Alaska since before Roe v. Wade. The script suggests that if Alaska continues to narrow its margins for Republicans, it could become a target for Democrats in future elections, indicating a larger problem for the GOP nationally.
🌐 Broader Implications for US Politics
The final paragraph of the script discusses the broader implications of Alaska's changing political landscape for US politics. It notes that if Alaska becomes a swing state, it could signal a significant shift in the nation's political dynamics. The paragraph also mentions the importance of Native American voters and rural voters in Alaska, who tend to lean more Democratic. It suggests that if Democrats continue to make inroads in Alaska, it could become a model for future Democratic campaigns in other traditionally conservative states. The script concludes by emphasizing the importance of Alaska as a potential bellwether for national political trends and the need for Republicans to address the changing sentiments in the state.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Battleground state
💡Poll
💡Debate
💡Electorate
💡RFK Jr
💡Ranked Choice voting
💡Sarah Palin
💡Mary Peltola
💡Make America Great Again
💡Native American vote
Highlights
New poll shows Donald Trump with a five-point lead over Kamala Harris in Alaska.
Alaska, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is now a battleground state.
Alaska Survey Research's poll conducted post-debate shows a close race between Trump and Harris.
Trump's lead is seen as damaging due to Alaska's historical Republican support.
RFK Jr.'s 5% support post-dropout could be a factor in Trump's reduced lead.
Alaska has shifted away from the Republican party since 2008.
67% of surveyed Alaskans watched the presidential debate, influencing voter sentiment.
Only 29% of Alaskan viewers thought Trump won the debate, versus 52% for Harris.
Alaska Survey Research is known for its accuracy in predicting election outcomes.
In 2022, Alaska Survey Research accurately predicted Mary Peltola's victory in a special election.
Alaska's unique electoral dynamics are challenging for polling accuracy.
Trump's 2020 victory in Alaska was by double digits, a significant drop from 2016.
Alaska's Native American vote and rural voters' Democratic lean could impact election results.
Alaska's shift towards competitiveness could signal a larger national trend.
The 2024 Alaska poll results are a wake-up call for the Republican party.
Alaska could become a target for Democrats in future election cycles.
The debate's impact on Alaskan voters suggests a possible nationwide shift away from Trump.
Transcripts
Friday September 13th 2024 and today we
are going to be talking about the
Battleground state of Alaska a new poll
today showing Donald Trump with just a
five-point advantage over vice president
kamla Harris in the big group poll being
done in the state of Alaska entirely
conducted after the debate September
11th through September 12th released by
Alaska survey research the data they
provided showed that amongst a group of
100 uh sorry
1,254 likely voters here we find that
Donald Trump maintains an advantage 47
to 42 to over KLA Harris and when it
comes pushed 48 to 44 across the overall
electorate now 48 to 44 and 47 to 42 are
really damaging numbers for Donald Trump
RFK Jr getting a whopping 5% entirely
post Dropout and a big reason why we
might be seeing Donald Trump doing so
poorly against KLA Harris is because
Alaska is a state that has had a unique
change and shift away from the
Republican party ever since John McCain
and Sarah Palin ran together back in
2008 in 2008 Sarah Palin being on the
ticket being the incumbent governor of
the state of Alaska brought a massive
Victory across the state that has
largely been seen as solidly Republican
Democrats haven't been able to win the
state in decades and it looks like this
election cycle may not be the time at
which it changes but it does show a far
closer race and a shocking new poll from
one of the most accurate pollsters
across the state what they find is that
Donald Trump receiving 48% of the vote
to KLA Harris's 44% really bodess bad
news for Donald Trump on the national
level because Alaska is a state that
back in 2020 voted for Donald Trump by
double digits as well as in 2016 what's
interesting too is that the majority of
people in the state of Alaska that were
surveyed here had watched the
presidential debate 67% say yes they
watched this debate to 33% and just 29%
of them say Donald Trump won the debate
compared to 52% of Voters saying that
KLA Harris instead won that debate and
the reason why that matters is because
it is clear that this debate did in fact
change some people's minds around the
state of Alaska and across the country
we've seen recent polls on the National
head-to-head showing KLA Harris
expanding her lead to Five Points
Nationwide in the two released National
polls which shows again good news for
KLA Harris but I want us to understand a
bit more around the Alaska survey
research poll and why I believe it to be
possibly one of the best polls for any
Battleground State across the country
especially given that Alaska is a state
that receives very little resources from
both parties as well as very little
resources in actually understanding its
electoral Dynamic now if you've been
watching me for a while you remember
that I covered the 2022 special election
in the state of of Alaska that Mary pela
ended up winning in a shocking shocking
Victory she received just 39.7% of the
vote in the first round the combined
Republican vote share was just around
60% across the state and so it seemed as
if Democrats really had lost any and all
opportunity to win in this state they
thought that there wouldn't be an
opportunity for Democrats to end up
being in a position where they have the
majority of the vote in the state of
Alaska after all a combined Republican
vote share being nearly 60% is a really
hard thing to crack when you're looking
for a majority of the vote especially in
a ranked Choice voting system but Alaska
survey research had predicted right
before the election what ended up
actually happening and it was quite
interesting to see just how accurate
they were in 2022 now this is from one
of the posters I know it doesn't seem
too official but it's coming straightly
straight from Twitter because Alaska Sur
research again was one of the few
polling firms across the state that also
had not been receiving as much national
attention until this special election
where they nailed it what they found was
that in the first round of voting Mary
paler would receive 39.4% Sarah
26.9% Nick baggage 25.8 now we did see
that Sweeney would be eliminated she
ended up dropping out before the race
had been able to be cast but the round
one votes here were 39.4% for Mary POA
and the reason I bring that up is
because when you take a look at the
actual results it was 39.7% off by just
0.3% Sarah Palin went up slightly Nick
beit went up slightly but that is to be
expected as another candidate departs
from the race and overall Mary Pala was
nearly identical to what the margin had
actually said now here's where they went
wrong they said that begic would make it
through to the final round but what they
decided to do was do hypotheticals Nick
begic versus Mary Pala and Sarah Palin
versus Mary Pala now they found that
Nick begic who was long seen as the more
pragmatic and more traditional
conservative was going to defeat Mary
POA by roughly nine points this would be
a good result for Democrats given that
they don't really come that close in the
state of Alaska but against Sarah Palin
this was the big shock they predicted
that Mary POA would defeat Sarah Palin
by five points across this state now we
remember Sarah Palin was the governor in
this state she was arguably very popular
up until she ran for vice president when
she really fell out of The Graces not
only with the state of Alaska but also
we saw very much on the national level
but this fivepoint Advantage here Mary
POA had over Sarah Palin actually came
to fruition on Election Day when they
cast the ballots where Mary POA ended up
winning by roughly three points and so
it was a slight overestimation for
Democrats here but at large they really
made the Mark here they were able to
accurately gauge the electorate in a
state that really does not do well for
polling given how rural it is how sparse
it is uh how few voters there are in
this that are willing to pick up a phone
and actually answer a survey then we
move on to the special elections regular
election the same candidates had to run
and so was the top three running in the
state of Alaska what we found was that a
lot of these polls were really all over
the place but the most accurate one we
saw through the election was one that
they released back in October what they
found right at the end of October just
days before the election it was November
3rd uh or not November 3rd uh November
8th 2022 Mary POA in the first round
actually bumped up quite significant L
supposed to get 48.9% of the vote Sarah
Palin at 25.6 uh Nick begagit at 20.5
libertarian at 5 then you move over down
to the round two Mary pela would clear
and she would be able to win what we
found here was that Mary pela Not only
was able to win against Sarah Palin was
that she was already able to defeat her
by roughly the margin that Alaska survey
research had predicted and when it comes
down to that first round polling 48.9%
take a look at the actual
48.8% it was as if it was off by just a
fra of it which it was off by just 0.1%
so Alaska survey research ended up
nearly meeting the moment here and
predicting the final margin again
slightly overestimating Mary Pala but
only by a fraction and ultimately the
prediction ended up being correct and so
then came the new poll that they
released just today from the state of
Alaska showing Donald Trump with a five
and fourpoint advantage over KLA Harris
in what honestly should be a shell shock
to the Republican party because as I've
been saying Alaska is this state the
Republicans have been able to win in for
quite some time in 2016 Donald Trump won
it by 14 but then in 2020 it became a
10-point state Republicans have never
expected a state like Alaska to be a
Battleground state it had not voted for
a democrat in over 50 years and there
was no real reason to believe the
Democrats in 2016 2012 especially 2008
and also 2020 were going to come within
a point where Alaska could be
competitive but it is because of
Democrats like Mary Pala and Republicans
like Donald Trump who push away the
Republican electorate in the base people
like Sarah Palin who ended up making
voters who were ranking a republican
first ranking Mary Pala second because
they couldn't stomach the idea of a
representative Sarah Palin and they
couldn't stomach the idea of a president
Donald Trump you're finding that those
voters are the driving factor in making
Alaska more competitive and so Donald
Trump ended up getting 52% of the vote
back in Alaska 53% actually Joe Biden at
43% 42 43% rough running roughly even
with the data we're seeing now in the
state of Alaska it isn't necessarily
that Democrats are getting more and more
of the vote share but rather that the
Republicans at the top of the the ticket
are getting less of the vote share here
and it's because voters are turning away
from Donald Trump himself but a
six-point swing or a fivepoint swing
whether you want to look at it from the
positive or you know more negative lens
for Republicans either way it is a
really bad sign that Democrats are in a
position where they are within reach in
this state because it really shouldn't
be a Battleground state it has been long
heralded as this safe Republican state
that can rely on it for the Senate they
can rely on it for the governorship they
can rely on it for the house and
Democrats sometimes break through in
2008 Democrats won the senate election
in the state of Alaska only to be
completely defeated in 2014 Independence
have broken through in the governorship
only to be defeated in the next election
cycle it is very rare that Democrats do
well in Alaska and in fact Mary P's
victory in the special election was the
first Democratic victory in Alaska since
before roie Wade was written into law in
fact Alaska had the same representative
Don Young from 1972 a year before we saw
roie Wade put precedent into law by the
Supreme Court and he died passed away
unfortunately in 2022 prompting this
special election which Democrats were
able to win for the first time having
vacated the seat now with this
opportunity they were able to win for
the first time in over half a century
and so it was very very very important
for Democrats that they did well in
Alaska because it showed a larger
movement Across the Nation that voters
were in fact fed up with the make
America great again style of campaigning
the make America great against style of
Republican even in a state like Alaska
Sarah Palin again who had record High
approval when she was tapped to be John
McCain's VP in 2008 had fallen so far
from Grace not necessarily on her own
account because even after the 2008
election voters in Alaska didn't sour on
her immediately it was her association
with Donald Trump who does not hold a
high regard in the state voters do not
like him they don't want him they
begrudgingly vote for him and that shows
in the election results it's the only
reason why Alaska narrowed down from
2012 to 2016 why it even further
narrowed down from 2016 to 2020 and why
by all signs by the gold standard poll
Alaska survey research will narrow down
again from 2020 to
2024 there is reason for all of this and
voters clearly have been sending a
message in Alaska multiple multiple
times Donald Trump and his make America
grade again crew are not welcome in the
way the McCain family was the Palin
family was the Romney family was that is
the way that voters in Alaska have
really started to show their disdain for
Donald Trump and what is also unique to
the state of Alaska is the vote of
Native Americans the vote of Voters who
really don't Encompass a large portion
of the American population when it comes
down to voting percentage and also tend
to be the most democratic it also is a
state where rural voters tend to be more
democratic than not you can take a look
at some of the outskirts this looks like
a map that if Democrats were to take the
same Republican Playbook and say my
state is more blue than red by map why
don't I live in a blue state right all
of those arguments that have been made
and and clearly are articulated by many
members of the Trump Trump team Alaska
is not one of those States and so that's
why it really is in a position where
Democrats see a prime opportunity and
see a different style of campaigning
that might work for them unique to
Alaska and they have been able to do so
with representative Mary pela who right
now is in a position where she could
very well win re-election even though
she's in a head-to-head race what is
normally a rank Choice voting scenario
so essentially what happened was that
the top four the bottom two decided to
drop out of the race ultimately now it
is a two-way race and what is
interesting to is that up until this
election we're seeing Mary POA and Nick
begic are neck and neck this race should
not be neck and neck Republicans should
be able to win this race with ease
remember the last few election Cycles
Republicans have had no struggle or no
problem in the state of Alaska the
closest it got was a six-point margin in
2018 because Democrats ran a stellar
candidate and really caught Republicans
when they didn't even have the money to
focus on Alaska then they got their
things together they started to win
Alaska by more but then came 2022 where
Mary Pala as a Democrat changed the way
that Democrats campaign in this state
and Republicans started to realize that
maybe parts of their brand were toxic
now we're seeing that even more but
Alaska could also be really a point to a
larger problem for the nation where
voters here who are watching the debate
are turning more away from Donald Trump
it's no secret that Alaska is a state
that Republicans Should Have and Have
clearly relied on in the past and when
you take a look at their matchup against
Biden Donald Trump did double in terms
of margins eight points instead of four
points and that is something that really
reminds me that Alaska may not be this
state that is uh you know entirely for
the Republicans but against the right
Democrat rather necessarily the wrong
Democrat it does good results for the
GOP we saw that you know roughly a year
ago Donald Trump LED Joe Biden by eight
points across the state and again this
is a really strong poll this is a really
really accurate pollster that might
ultimately be slightly overestimating
Democrats but regardless it is a shift
nonetheless from the GOP which
Republicans cannot afford because any
shift from the 2020 election means they
lose this race right this isn't some
type of Republicans have a bench of
states that they can just go ahead and
freely lose without concern about uh
losing the election no they can't afford
to lose a single percentage of vote
share from the 2020 election otherwise
they will not be elected this coming
November and so Alaska is one of those
states where I think also too if this
state becomes more routinely pulled and
more routinely on the radar for National
Democrats it could become a republican
problem for the Republicans down the
line because it may not be this election
cycle but if Donald Trump wins the state
of Alaska by six points uh in 2024 that
will be a state of the Democrats Target
in 2028 another interesting way to look
at this too is that when you take a look
across the nation from the 2020 election
results Alaska went to Trump by just
10.1% I say just or actually just 10% I
say just 10% because there are other
states that are historically much more
competitive that voted more for either
side of the aisle than the state of
Alaska which should help put this into
context Colorado ended up voting for
Biden by 14 points that matters in New
Mexico Democrats ended up winning by 11
in Virginia Democrats ended up winning
by 10 right they're winning some of
these states that historically have been
3 2 1. States for Democrats Alaska voted
less for Trump than Democrats won in New
Mexico in Colorado in Virginia and even
in some cases the margins here in Alaska
rivaled that of states that are
traditionally you know more competitive
for Democrats and also too they rivaled
margins that Republicans really are
terrified about anything 10 points or
less in states that have historically
been so conservative are things that
they need to watch for and look for
States like Texas which in 2016 narrowed
down to being a single-digit state for
Republicans for the first time in
decades in 2016 when Trump swing swung
every single other Battleground state to
the right Texas swung to the left got on
the radar and the agenda for Democrat
Republicans in 2020 as well as Democrats
and then again it narrowed up again and
now they're doing protection in the
state for 2024 and years Beyond but
overall what I take away from this
Alaska poll isn't that democrats should
invest in it this cycle but that it
absolutely and may very well be a swing
state in the 2028 2032 even the off-ear
election Cycles because that is the
current state of the race the most
accurate pollster the gold standard
across the state of Alaska is showing
Donald Trump within five points in the
state and amongst different voters four
points that is a very different type of
Alaska that we we had worked with since
they started this YouTube channel in
2017 and Republicans should be really
worried because if Alaska is narrowing
down to four or five points it means a
larger swing away from the rest of the
nation especially in the aftermath of
the presidential debate where voters
very clearly even in a red State believe
KLA Harris won so thank you guys so much
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tomorrow
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