Why Can't Bitcoin Catch A Break?
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Nicholas Meron from DataDash addresses the current stagnation in Bitcoin's price, questioning the demand-side factors beyond recent macro events like the German government's sell-off. He expresses concern over the lack of significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which could signal a weakening trend. Meron warns viewers to be cautious, suggesting that the market may not see the same bullish momentum as before, and advises waiting for clear upward trends before investing.
Takeaways
- 🗓️ The video was published on September 4th, 2024, and discusses the current state of Bitcoin and the crypto market.
- 📉 Bitcoin is experiencing a downturn, with lower highs and a struggle to maintain short-term moving averages.
- 🌐 The demand for Bitcoin is a significant concern, with the video questioning who the next set of buyers might be.
- 🏦 The video discusses the impact of macro events, such as the German government's actions and the distribution from Mt. Gox, on Bitcoin's price.
- 🤔 The role of Bitcoin ETFs as a potential catalyst for a new bull market is examined, with a focus on recent inflow and outflow trends.
- 📊 Data from Hleb Trading shows a decrease in Bitcoin being added to ETFs, raising concerns about the demand-side support.
- 📉 The video highlights a potential price drop to the $50k range due to the weakening trend and lack of significant buying support.
- 🔄 The presenter suggests skepticism about the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market and the need for new catalysts.
- 📊 The presenter discusses the importance of cycle analysis and the potential for traditional cycle theories to become less reliable.
- 💡 The video concludes with advice on trading discipline, emphasizing the importance of not fighting the market trend and waiting for clear signals of a new uptrend.
Q & A
What is the main concern discussed by Nicholas Meron regarding Bitcoin's current market situation?
-Nicholas Meron expresses concern about the demand side of Bitcoin, questioning who the next set of buyers will be and whether the current market has enough demand to outweigh the selling pressure.
Why does Nicholas Meron consider the recent lack of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs as concerning?
-Nicholas Meron is concerned because the lack of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicates a potential decrease in institutional interest and demand, which could negatively impact Bitcoin's price in the long term.
What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market?
-Nicholas Meron suggests that the effectiveness of Bitcoin ETFs in driving the market is diminishing, as evidenced by the recent low inflows, which could signal a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin market.
How does Nicholas Meron view the current technical indicators for Bitcoin?
-Nicholas Meron views the current technical indicators for Bitcoin as bearish, pointing out lower highs and lower lows, as well as the inability to break above short-term moving averages.
What is Nicholas Meron's stance on the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will catalyze a new bull market?
-Nicholas Meron is skeptical about the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will catalyze a new bull market, urging viewers to remain cautious and to consider the actual data on ETF inflows.
Why does Nicholas Meron believe the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle may no longer be applicable?
-Nicholas Meron believes the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle may no longer be applicable due to changes in market dynamics, including the introduction of ETFs and other institutional investment vehicles, which could alter the asset's historical price patterns.
What advice does Nicholas Meron give to traders regarding entering the market during a dip?
-Nicholas Meron advises traders to wait for higher lows and higher highs before entering the market, suggesting that it's better to wait for a clear trend reversal rather than trying to catch a falling knife.
How does Nicholas Meron analyze the broader market implications for Bitcoin and other assets?
-Nicholas Meron analyzes the broader market implications by considering the performance of other assets like equities and noting a potential divergence from Bitcoin's performance, suggesting that a downturn in other markets could affect Bitcoin as well.
What is Nicholas Meron's opinion on the current state of Bitcoin technological advancement and user adoption?
-Nicholas Meron suggests that the technological advancement and user adoption of Bitcoin may not be expanding at the same pace as before, which could affect the asset's price momentum and overall market performance.
What is the Dash Report, and how does Nicholas Meron recommend it to his audience?
-The Dash Report is a newsletter service that Nicholas Meron recommends to his audience as a way to get in-depth market analysis, trade setups, and access to webinars, which can provide additional insights and support for trading decisions.
Outlines
📉 Bitcoin's Struggle and Market Demand Concerns
Nicholas Meron from DataDash addresses the current state of Bitcoin, noting its decline since late August and the struggle to maintain short-term 4-Hour moving averages. He discusses the importance of demand in the market, questioning who the next buyers will be and whether Bitcoin ETFs can act as a catalyst for a new bull market. Meron points out the lack of significant inflows into ETFs from July to August, contrasting this with the period of June to July where ETFs saw substantial demand. He emphasizes the need for skepticism regarding the potential of ETFs to drive Bitcoin's price and suggests that the market is weakening.
📈 The Diminishing Role of ETFs in Bitcoin's Market Dynamics
Nicholas continues by analyzing the diminishing role of ETFs in supporting Bitcoin's price, highlighting a significant outflow in April followed by minimal inflows in May and June. He explains the rotation of funds fromGBTC to lower-cost ETFs and the implications this has on the market. Meron also discusses the broader market context, including the performance of equities and the potential for a divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. He advises viewers to be cautious, suggesting that the market may continue to face downward pressure unless new catalysts emerge.
🚀 Waiting for Market Trends Before Investing in Altcoins
In this section, Nicholas shifts the focus to altcoins, stating that he will be trading in them with the goal of making profits. He outlines the conditions necessary for altcoins to trend higher, such as Bitcoin establishing new highs and ETF inflows increasing. Meron emphasizes the importance of not fighting the market trend and waiting for clear signs of upward momentum before investing. He also touches on the recent downturn in the stock market, suggesting that a similar cautious approach should be taken with equities.
💡 Key Market Lessons and the Importance of Discipline
Nicholas concludes by sharing key lessons for successful trading and investing. He stresses the importance of not trying to catch falling knives in the market and the value of discipline in taking profits ahead of time. Meron encourages viewers to consider the Dash Report for more in-depth market analysis and to join the webinar for direct interaction. He reiterates the need to focus on market trends and velocity, rather than hoping for immediate recoveries or relying on past models that may no longer be applicable.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Crypto community
💡Price of Supply and Demand
💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)
💡Capital Inflows
💡Moving Averages
💡Market Cycles
💡Capitulation
💡Altcoins
💡Market Sentiment
💡FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
Highlights
Bitcoin's current struggle to maintain its price, despite recent positive developments.
Concerns about the demand side of Bitcoin, questioning who the next buyers will be.
Analysis of Bitcoin's price action, showing lower highs and a weakening trend.
The impact of macro events, such as government sales, on Bitcoin's price.
Discussion on Bitcoin ETFs and their role in driving the market.
Data on ETF inflows and outflows, indicating a potential slowing of demand.
The importance of new capital inflows for Bitcoin's future price movements.
Critique of the narrative that Bitcoin ETFs will automatically lead to a new bull market.
Comparison of Bitcoin's current market behavior with historical cycles.
The potential for diminished returns and a slower pace of Bitcoin's growth.
The need for higher lows and higher highs as a signal to enter the market.
The role of market trends in determining trading strategies for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Correlation between Bitcoin's price action and the broader stock market.
Advice on market discipline and not fighting the trend in investments.
The Dash Report as a resource for in-depth market analysis and trade setups.
Final thoughts on the importance of market velocity and inflows for Bitcoin's future.
Transcripts
what's going on everyone my name is
Nicholas meron here from dat to Dash and
today September 4th of 2024 well folks I
hope you all are having a fantastic day
wherever you are because in today's
video I want to have a blunt honest
one-on-one conversation with you guys
and try to answer a big question in the
minds of a lot of people in the Bitcoin
and crypto community and that is why is
it why does it seem that Bitcoin can't
cash a break now I know a lot of people
will probably jump to the conclusion
that a lot of people have been
discussing which is the recent cide
pressure that we had from the German
government from Mount Gau a lot of big
macro cell set events but I think
there's another important piece of the
puzzle it is not just a question when
you're determining price of Supply in
the market it's a matter of demand and I
think this is probably the more
concerning end that we have to discuss
we got a lot to unpack here in today's
video so if you haven't to enjoy it
consider dropping a like it's one of the
greatest ways you can support the
channel and let's go ahead and kick
things off I'm not here today to spread
a lot of fear guys I don't want to kind
of get straight to the point keep this
video relatively short since we last
spoke on Monday a Bitcoin has continued
to dwindle down here it's struggling on
its short-term 4-Hour time frame moving
averages after setting in a lower
significant high back here in late
August from its prior relative high in
Late July so coming up here on nearly a
month later we send lower highs and
we're still dwindling lower and spending
more and more time towards that lower
range now to mention as you all if you
watch the channel frequently there other
longer term moving averages the 21-day
pocket the 100 and 200 day we're
spending time much closer to those
long-term moving averages and it's a
signal that we are weakening in the
trend here now obviously there was a lot
of cide pressure here I'm not going to
negate that fact Mount distributions the
German government selling these are huge
salite events but the thing I want to
bring to you attention here is something
much more concerning and it is the much
more important part of the equation when
it comes to determining where price is
going to go long term and that is the
demand side who is going to be the next
set of buyers the next wave of people
who will actually come in and Market buy
Bitcoin essentially what I mean by that
is they're going to buy Bitcoin at the
best available price and they're coming
in with sizable Capital enough to
outweigh saleside pressure right so
that's the question we have to have ask
and I know a lot of people probably say
well we've got the Bitcoin ETFs now
that's the new Catalyst that's the
narrative that's what's going to allow
Bitcoin to recover here and be able to
really kick off a new bull market maybe
going up to $100,000 or more if not and
whatever happens beyond that will happen
right whatever it's going to be but I
want you guys to remain a bit skeptical
that because there are a lot of people
telling you that that's going to happen
I want you to take a look at these
numbers here now this is from hle 15
capital good page you you should follow
them over on Twitter but essentially
like a couple other profiles on on X or
on Twitter essentially they compile all
of the data around the ETFs it's
publicly available knowledge but
sometimes it can be difficult to pull
the information off Chain by yourself so
it's good to use these nice graphs here
and I want to go ahead and get straight
to the point here that essentially from
the close of July to the close of August
just had it back a couple days ago we
saw less than a, new Bitcoin being added
to the ETFs during this period of time
now mind you this is a period of time
where us government's been selling some
there's been knock Ox distribution still
going through the driven government the
ETFs have not been accelerating
massively now between June to July we
did see again initially throughout that
month a good amount of Bitcoin demand
coming in the ETFs to match that sell
pressure that's why we haven't had a
significant collapse with one of the
biggest distribution events in crypto
which is this reimbursement of holders
of Bitcoin who were using the magic the
Gathering online exchange or Mount gox
as it more commonly known um during that
period of time we had buyers coming in
but the month following we've had
practically no inflows coming in here
and this is very concerning here guys
this is not again I really want to Echo
this here I understand some people have
disagreements of opinion some people are
more bullish some people more bearish
there is no way to cut it here guys this
is the last major final narrative that
really can drive crypto from what I can
see and I've been in crypto for many
years I've traded in financial markets
since 2011 I started investing in
cryptos in 2016
2017 and for me to see that this is the
ETF this is the moment where Bitcoin is
becoming that mature institutionalized
asset we finally have it and multiple
months down the line we're now getting
to a point where those inflows are
really trying up a good way to visualize
this here right to just show you I'm not
trying to like spread fud or focus on
one month's worth of data one month is
not the end of the world but the problem
is that while we had a very strong
quarter one from January February March
where we really saw those inflows coming
in a month where we had
116,000 even with people outflowing from
gbtc net overall we had new spot Bitcoin
being stored in these ETF products and
now we see an April an outflow of 6,000
and may a decent month around
29592 and June 8700 in July again coming
to that that cell side pressure that was
in the market definitely helped buoy
price it probably would have been a lot
worse right now here this month less
than a
thousand and I know a lot of people will
jump to the conclusion and they'll say
Nick gbtc is still outflowing we can't
really Factor these numbers in this just
doesn't really count and it absolutely
does and the reason why it does this and
I say this so importantly is because the
gbtc product had already existing SP
Bitcoin in there and the thing is that
so many people don't realize they'll say
but you know ibit is increasing its
numbers or they'll point to whatever ETF
is is generally going up to justify the
thing is that those Bitcoin that are
going in there are very likely coming
from gbtc because gbtc product is much
more expensive so people are slowly but
steadily month by month getting smart
rotating their money and getting it
essentially into a lower cost ETF with a
much smaller maintenance fee right and
that's essentially what's been happening
here with these outflows and a lot of
these supposed new inflows ibit it's why
we have to look at the entire
spreadsheet here this is the most honest
way we can do it and when I look at this
and I see net overall that we are seeing
less than a th000 Bitcoin being add in
the past month that is showing me that
the buoy of support that the ETF used to
provide here during the cellet event is
no longer and if we start getting a lot
of whales coming in here a lot of
long-term holders who want to sell that
is not going to be good for Bitcoin
price the price action is already
showing it this weekly candle here the
inability to get about those short-term
moving averages another engulfing candle
here I mean we've had multiple lower
lows and lower highs here this to me
makes me not only believe that you're
you're at a minimum probably going down
here to the 50k range to touch that
General line of Support over time but
beyond that as we could be going even
lower because the more fundamental
question that should be on your mind and
on the minds of everyone it's on my mind
and I know it's on the minds of many
long-term holders of Bitcoin who already
have stacked a ton of SATs a lot of
Bitcoin they're sitting there wondering
who who's going to buy Bitcoin next
right A lot of people probably hadn't
been thinking about that because Bitcoin
has always gone up and to the right it's
always been one of the best performing
assets but now we have the ETFs we have
international ETFs many of which are
neutral or negative uh we we have every
single kind of exchange you could think
of about there from you know consumer
exchanges like coinbase and binance OTC
desks you have families and hedge funds
who if they want exposure they can get
it Pension funds can now get exposure to
bitcoin what is going to be the next
wave of capital that's really going to
drive this and I'm not here to say that
over the absolute long term guys if we
really zoom out here that Bitcoin can't
go up into the right you know slowly but
steadily but it is going to be at a much
much slower Pace than I think what a lot
of people are expecting and I think the
more important thing to just keep in
mind here is that not only are those
returns diminishing and they could
really start to get much more flat here
in the near term but beyond that I think
cycle analysis is dead we talked about
this months ago but I really want to
Echo this point here which is that I
don't think the previous you know 4year
cycle or expanding Cycle Theory which
got kind of broken in the last cycle a
lot of these methods and even the data
science models and traditional means of
measuring cycle tops are going to start
breaking they're not going to be working
and maybe those systems in place will
still be good you're finding
capitulation events I'm all for buying
Bitcoin during capitulation events
because if you can do it at the right
time then in that case you know when
things start to go back on the up and up
Bitcoin usually is still one of the best
performing assets but buying here when
we're revisiting the prior highs of the
2021 cycle 3 years ago practically
speaking right and we are struggling no
sorry excuse me more than 3 years ago if
you consider the April range if you want
to use November that's fine it's only
slightly higher but we're coming up
there and it's almost been 3 years and
we can't really catch a break we set in
slightly new higher levels and since
that it's just been distribution and
stagnation so my point here at the end
of the day is I'm not even here to say
that we can't kick off a new bull Mark
I'm not saying we can't go up higher but
set standards don't try to buy uh so
supposedly the dip here so many people
will tell you to do because it could
just keep on dipping I think the smart
way to go about this as a Trader is to
finally wait until we start seeing
higher lows and higher highs who knows
maybe we get that here maybe we get
support at 53,000 and essentially we can
start to reverse higher and set higher
relative highs my Big Goal above all is
that I'm going to be trying to make
money in this market and be trading in
altcoins and that is going to require a
few things I one it's going to require
that allcoins are finally trending
higher which they aren't yet we're down
here in the 200 week where we should be
bouncing enough strongly like we were
back here right at the the lows we
expected for price to come down to it
hit that Target perfectly LLY then it
rolled back over again we weren't
bearish enough supposedly and it went
all the way down here to 151 billion we
got a bounce off there up to 229 billion
but we're getting shot down at those
daily moving averages and now we're
getting real cozy in these long-term
spots we need to start seeing that
change and I'm not trying to pick
absolute bottoms I'm trying to wait
until the trend is presenting itself and
that is not going to happen in my view
in any significant way until Bitcoin
gets up and establishes new highs
because once it does that and we can
really start trending a new bu Market
once those ETF inflows start picking up
or we have some new buyer a new Catalyst
that gets the markets optimistic then
you can start to see optimism return but
for now the only type of buyers who are
coming in are buying during capitulation
they are not buying at those long-term
daily moving averages which used to be
acting as a means of support we saw that
here with the purple lines here which is
the 100 day back here in January there
was the perfect low Point once we got
above the 21 day as a confirmation of
momentum boom acceleration here same
back here support on the 100 day and 200
day pocket I'll just zoom in it so you
guys can see it a little bit better
right I'll turn off the drawings we can
see very clearly here we established
nice steady support there break above
the 21 Day Break above that prior
resistance range of 125 boom clear Trend
that is when the Easy Money the
life-changing returns are made and until
that really happens we have no reason to
try to fight the trend or try to fight
the market on hopes that Michael sailor
going to buy more Bitcoin on hopes that
plan B's model is going to work and then
we're going to 500k um you know the the
model of yesterday may very well not be
working today and I want to Echo that
that's not any like uh me being negative
that's just true my markets go through
clear Cycles over time and I think
Bitcoin has been through a decade long
positive expansion now we're getting to
a very important crus Pier of like you
know where's the technological
advancement of Bitcoin how many new
users are coming to bitcoin is Bitcoin
really you know in need of essentially
are there more people who really need
Bitcoin nowaday uh than there were say
yesterday or last week or a month ago or
a year ago or more people getting access
to bitcoin and sure probably those
numbers are slightly moving up a little
bit over time but they are not as
expansionary as they used to be and that
lack of velocity and momentum is going
to Harper asset prices as a whole and
that brings me here to talking about not
just Bitcoin or altcoins it even talks
about the topic of equities yesterday we
had a pretty big Smackdown right we've
been talking and I I'll be fair to say
when I get things right when I get
things wrong I mean we were talking
pretty high about equities the other day
back on Monday and Equity prices were
doing quite good comparative to bitcoin
there's a kind of growing Divergence if
you will uh versus the performance of
the two however yesterday not only did
Bitcoin get Smackdown as well as
altcoins but the S&P 500 the Nasdaq all
the major indices in the stock market
got a pretty big slam down after we saw
a spike in volatility well of course the
move in the S&P caused the spike in
volatility getting us back above the 200
week um back here where we were back a
month ago in the early part of August
and that was mainly driven by Nvidia
coming down
9.53% brutal day here for NVIDIA back
down to $18 per share looking like it's
steadfast after closing below the 100
day so looking like it'll probably might
you bounce up a little bit here in the
short term but I would I would probably
bet money that that's going to come down
to the 200 day moving average and this
brings me to my point here you know a
lot of people see it by directionally
that if you're you're positive or
negative on bitcoin at any given moment
you know is that you hate it or you love
it you know and that's not true I I love
Bitcoin for what it stands for I love
the the rules and protocol are
established for Bitcoin it's trustless
it is disruptive it is something that
challenges the the world order when it
comes to the central bank monetary
policy as a potential money de basement
hedge over the long run um so I don't
I'm not against those things what I'm
here to say though is that my goal is to
make money my goal is to protect and
preserve my capital and if I don't see
assets as a whole performing
well whether that's big Tech whether
that's you know the broader stock market
uh and whether that's crypto whether it
be Bitcoin or
altcoins I'm not really going to be
making that risk and I honestly don't
think at the end of the day guys you
should be so urgent to want to fomo into
the market on every single dip because
it can very well be that you get one dip
and another dip and it just keeps on
rolling down until finally someone
accumulates enough and ships the
trend that's the key goal in markets
because you got to be willing to not
fight the trend and not try to catch
falling knives but also not try to sell
the absolute top take profits ahead of
time be disciplined that's the kind of
stuff that's going to help you wi out
long term and be able to make life
changing returns so I wanted to share
this important lesson with you guys I
hope this proved valuable and if you
like this kind of insights if you like
this kind of balanced approach to how to
analyze markets I definitely recommend
you guys check out the dash report this
is our newsletter here in the channel it
is one of the greatest ways you guys can
not only support the content we put out
but we send out a 20 Page Plus report we
just dropped one uh back a few days ago
covering some trade setups doing our
monthly article talking about uh you
know major potential Divergence scenario
in the the stock market you either a
euphoric Rally or a major collapse
coming and how you can essentially
predict which way it's going to go off
of certain Market signals that can
really help you to filter that out uh
and outside that as well we have our
midon webinar which will be coming up
later on Mid part of this month you guys
can ask me questions we'll dive through
the charts together uh it's a really
awesome experience people ask great
questions it's just a great way to get
really access to the greatest part of
our community some of the best members
some of the best content that I put out
as well as the content Russ puts out if
you really like his videos definitely
consider checking out the dashboard just
get some great trade setups and outside
of the as well if you haven't checked
out Russ's content definitely go watch
some of the videos on the channel but
that's it for today's video guys again
if you want to check it out link Down
Below in the description you can get 20%
off on an annualized subscription but I
hope this video proved valuable for you
guys when it comes to this main topic of
the ETF we cannot ignore these numbers
guys seeing the negative month we had in
April one off would be okay but if we're
seeing months that are getting away from
the average which is
37,45 Bitcoin per month that's the
according average year that we have have
across all these months if we cannot
start getting back above that average I
have a feeling that we are going to
struggle big time to be able to continue
moving up in price we need velocity we
need major acceleration of inflows to
really kick off that new bull market a
major catalist of New participants and
so far we are just not seeing it and in
the place especially where we should be
seeing it that's it for today's video
everyone thank you all so much for
tuning as always I'll see you guys in
the next video on Monday take care
everyone
تصفح المزيد من مقاطع الفيديو ذات الصلة
The Biggest Bitcoin Warning Yet | WTF Is Going On With The ETFs?
🦈BTC Apex Predator! Everyone FOMOing - New ATH soon🚀
The Ultimate Altcoin Trading Guide | How To Find 5-10X Opportunities In Crypto
Phân tích xu hướng bitcoin ngày 8/7/2024
🚨 HERE IS WHY BITCOIN IS CRASHING!!!!!!
THE 4 BULL RUN CRYPTO CATALYSTS: M2, PRESIDENCY, 13F & RE-ALLOCATION.
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)