Sudan's conflict, explained
Summary
TLDRThe script recounts Sudan's political upheaval, beginning with the 2018 revolution against President Omar Bashir's military regime and the subsequent coup that saw military leaders Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemeti, rise to power. Initially united, their power struggle led to a violent conflict, undermining Sudan's hope for democracy. Despite international pressure for a power-sharing agreement, their disagreement over military integration escalated into a civil war, leaving the nation divided and its people betrayed.
Takeaways
- 🏳️🌈 Sudan experienced a revolution in 2018, with civilians demanding democracy after decades of military rule under President Omar Bashir.
- 🔄 The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have historically held significant power, leading multiple coups and maintaining control over the country.
- 🛡️ Bashir implemented 'coup proofing' strategies to secure his rule, including bolstering the army and creating protectors like the Janjaweed militias.
- 🔫 The Janjaweed, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), were instrumental in the brutal suppression of rebellions, particularly in Darfur.
- 💸 Economic struggles and a severe budget allocation towards the security sector sparked widespread protests against Bashir's regime.
- 🤝 In April 2019, a coup by SAF commanders and Hemeti led to Bashir's removal, but protesters remained skeptical of the new military leadership.
- 🔄 A power-sharing agreement was established between the military and civilian protesters, with a transitional council led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Hemeti.
- 🔄 Tensions between Hemeti and Burhan escalated, leading to Hemeti's push for a more extended timeline for integrating the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the army.
- 🔥 The disagreement over the power-sharing deal and the RSF's integration led to a rift, resulting in an ongoing conflict between Hemeti and Burhan.
- 🌍 International pressure and failed ceasefires have not resolved the conflict, leaving Sudan's path to democracy uncertain and its people feeling betrayed.
Q & A
What triggered the revolution in Sudan on December 19th, 2018?
-The revolution in Sudan was triggered by decades of living under President Omar Bashir’s brutal military regime, with civilians pushing back for democracy.
Who were the two men instrumental in the coup against President Omar Bashir?
-The two men instrumental in the coup against President Omar Bashir were Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, a former regional commander in Darfur.
What is the significance of the term 'coup proofing' in the context of Bashir's regime?
-Coup proofing refers to the strategy Bashir used to secure his power by surrounding himself with protectors while ensuring none had enough power to overthrow him, which included bolstering the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and maintaining a strong relationship with them.
How did the Janjaweed militias become a significant force in Sudan's political landscape?
-The Janjaweed militias became significant when President Bashir decided to rely on them instead of the SAF to counter the rebellion in Darfur. Later, they were given official status as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Bashir's direct command.
What economic factors contributed to the protests in Sudan in 2018?
-The economic crisis in Sudan, including the loss of oil resources to South Sudan and the government's budget allocating a large portion to the security sector while neglecting basic needs of the people, contributed to the widespread protests.
What was the role of Hemeti in the initial phase of the Sudanese revolution?
-Hemeti, as the leader of the RSF, was initially a protector of Bashir. However, as the protests intensified and it became clear that Bashir's leadership was no longer useful, Hemeti collaborated with SAF commanders to remove Bashir from power in a coup.
What was the power-sharing agreement that was reached after the coup against Bashir?
-The power-sharing agreement involved a transitional council with representatives from both the military and the protesters, where the military would have control for 21 months and civilians for 18 months, eventually leading to a civilian-led government.
Who was appointed as the prime minister following the power-sharing agreement?
-Abdallah Hamdok was appointed as the prime minister following the power-sharing agreement.
What event led to Abdallah Hamdok's resignation as prime minister?
-Abdallah Hamdok resigned following multiple military interventions by the leaders, including a staged coup in October 2021.
What was the disagreement between Burhan and Hemeti that led to their conflict?
-The disagreement was over the integration of the RSF into Burhan’s army, which would limit Hemeti’s power. Burhan wanted this to happen in two years, while Hemeti proposed a 10-year timeline.
How has the conflict between Burhan and Hemeti impacted Sudan's path to democracy?
-The conflict has interrupted the hopeful revolution, leading to hundreds of civilian deaths, thousands fleeing Sudan, and a breakdown in ceasefires and peace talks, leaving protesters feeling betrayed by the country's de facto leaders and the international community.
Outlines
🏛️ Sudan's Struggle for Democracy and Military Coup
The script details the beginning of a revolution in Sudan on December 19th, 2018, against President Omar Bashir's brutal military regime. Civilians demanded democracy, leading to a coup that overthrew Bashir after decades of rule. However, the same two men who facilitated the coup ended up in conflict, causing further turmoil. The history of Sudan is marked by military coups, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) wielding significant power since independence. Bashir's strategy to maintain power involved 'coup proofing,' bolstering the army and using local Arab militias, the Janjaweed, to suppress rebellions, particularly in Darfur, leading to mass destruction and human rights abuses.
📈 Economic Crisis and the Fall of Bashir's Regime
This paragraph discusses how economic hardship and the misallocation of resources towards the security sector sparked widespread protests in Sudan in 2018. The government's budget prioritized security over basic needs, leading to the largest revolution in Sudan's history. Despite initial support for Bashir, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti), eventually ousted him in April 2019. The removal was celebrated but met with skepticism, as the new leaders were seen as complicit in past violence. The RSF, under Hemeti's command, cracked down on pro-democracy protests, leading to a significant loss of life. International intervention resulted in a power-sharing agreement between the military and civilians, with a transitional council led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Hemeti, who had personal and financial stakes in Sudan's industries.
🔄 Power Struggle and the Ongoing Conflict in Sudan
The final paragraph outlines the power struggle between Burhan and Hemeti, which has escalated into a conflict with severe consequences for Sudan. Disagreements over the integration of the RSF into Burhan's army and the timeline for this transition led to a rift between the two leaders. Despite international pressure and agreements for a civilian-led government, the power dynamics and personal ambitions of the military leaders have resulted in continued violence and instability. The conflict has led to civilian deaths, displacement, and a halt to the democratic aspirations that initially fueled the revolution. The international community, which had pledged support for democracy in Sudan, is perceived to have betrayed the protesters.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Revolution
💡Coup
💡Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
💡Janjaweed
💡Coup Proofing
💡Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
💡Economic Crisis
💡Protests
💡Power Sharing Agreement
Highlights
On December 19th, 2018, a revolution began in Sudan against President Omar Bashir's brutal military regime, with civilians demanding democracy.
Bashir was overthrown in a coup led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti) and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who then promised a democratic future.
Sudan's history is marked by military coups, with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) wielding significant power since independence.
Bashir employed a strategy called 'coup proofing' to maintain power, involving bolstering the army and using local militias like the Janjaweed.
The Janjaweed, led by Hemeti, were instrumental in suppressing rebellions and were later given official status as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Bashir's regime was marked by economic mismanagement, leading to widespread protests and a severe economic crisis in 2018.
The 2018 protests escalated into the largest revolution in Sudan's history, with protesters demanding an end to military rule and democracy.
In April 2019, Hemeti and al-Burhan removed Bashir from power, initially being celebrated but later distrusted by the protesters.
Following the coup, a power-sharing agreement was established between the military and civilians, with al-Burhan as chair and Hemeti as vice chair of the transitional council.
The power-sharing agreement was disrupted by Hemeti and al-Burhan's interventions, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok in 2022.
Hemeti and al-Burhan's disagreement over the integration of the RSF into the SAF and the timeline for this process caused a rift between them.
The conflict between Hemeti and al-Burhan escalated into an armed confrontation, leading to civilian deaths and displacement.
International pressure led to another agreement in December 2020, promising a civilian-led transitional government by April 2023.
Despite international support, the Sudanese people feel betrayed by their leaders and the international community's handling of the situation.
The once hopeful revolution has been derailed by the power struggle between Hemeti and al-Burhan, with ongoing violence and instability.
The conflict has highlighted the complexity of Sudan's political landscape and the challenges of transitioning from military to civilian rule.
Transcripts
On December 19th, 2018...
a revolution started to spread throughout Sudan.
After decades of living under President Omar Bashir’s
brutal military regime...
civilians pushed back.
They wanted a democracy in their country.
A few months later,
this man and this man helped take down Bashir in a coup...
and then promised protesters the future they had demanded.
Four years later
the same two men are now at war with each other...
tearing Sudan apart, killing hundreds of civilians.
So how did Sudan go from this...
to this in such a short time?
And how did these two powerful men...
go from partners to enemies?
[overlapping] -Clashes in Sudan. -...a deadly coup...
... support forces...
Sudan has a long history of coups.
Leader after leader has been brought down by military officers.
The country's official military
now known as the Sudanese Armed Forces or SAF
has held tremendous power in the country for nearly a century.
And they started using that power
soon after Sudan gained independence from Anglo Egyptian rule.
“Sudanese flag now replacing the flags of those two nations.”
The first successful military coup happened in 1958.
Abdullah Kalil, a retired military officer
and sitting prime minister...
overthrew his own civilian government
to put Sudan under military rule.
About a decade later, Colonel Jaafar Nimeiry
carried out another successful coup...
bringing down a short lived democracy.
Then in 1985, Nimeiry was out.
This military officer took him down
and later installed a new democratic government.
Four years later, Colonel Omar Bashir took down
this government and appointed himself as the new head of state.
But Bashir ended up being different
from those that came before him.
Given the pattern of military takeovers...
Bashir knew he may suffer the same fate as previous leaders.
So he used a strategy called coup proofing...
where he'd surround himself with protectors
but would keep each one in check so they couldn't overthrow him.
It started with the SAF.
Throughout his regime, Bashir bolstered the army
and maintained a strong relationship with them.
He relied on them heavily to crack down
on an ongoing civil war in southern Sudan...
where SAF and allied militias
brutalized civilians on his command.
Then, with the army busy in the south
another war started taking shape in the West.
Darfur was in crisis.
People here were historically neglected.
Lack of medical supplies and necessary goods
and little representation in Sudan's government
left them feeling agitated for years.
So in 2003
while large portions of the army were tied up in the South.
Rebel groups attacked troops in this city in Darfur.
And Bashir in recognizing that this rebellion was taking place
instead of relying on the Sudan Armed Forces
or SAF, the conventional military
he instead decided to rely and arm
local Arab militias in the region
that were known as the Janjaweed.
This group was brutal
and focused on wiping out Darfuri rebels and civilians
at Bashir’s direction.
Satellite imagery shows that the Janjaweed is likely responsible
for destroying over 3000 villages.
SAF troops in Darfur were responsible for destruction there as well.
Both groups are accused of mass killing, rape
and the targeted displacement of civilians.
Together, they killed thousands of Darfuris.
The events in Darfur showed Bashir how to keep his power.
And he turned to the Janjaweed in search of another protector.
Among the Janjaweed militias
there were a couple of men Bashir trusted
and tried to bring into the central government.
But there is one particular Janjaweed leader
that Bashir trusted the most.
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo or Hemeti.
Bashir called him “my protection”.
A particular play on the Arabic word Hemmati
which is “my protection” versus Hemeti, which is his nickname.
By 2011, the long and gruesome civil war here ended
with South Sudan gaining independence...
leaving Bashir in a weak position.
And soon after, Sudan's economy tanked.
Many of the oil resources that sustain the country
were based in the South
which was no longer under Bashir's control.
To strengthen his power
Bashir gave Hemeti and the Janjaweed official status
as a paramilitary force called the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in 2013.
At first, the group was placed under the NISS
Sudan's intelligence agency, also one of Bashir's protectors.
Even though they were supporting the SAF
in the ongoing war in Darfur.
Then in 2017, he passed a law
placing Hemeti directly under his command...
making it clear that the RSF’s main purpose was to protect him.
To maintain the RSF’s loyalty
Bashir gave Hemeti financial autonomy and allowed him
to take control of some of Darfur's gold mines...
smuggle weapons and minerals into places like Chad and Libya...
and send troops into war torn regions in exchange for money.
At the same time, Bashir continued
to let the SAF have a hand in major industries...
like weapon production and telecommunications.
While Bashir was busy making these two forces richer
civilians continue to struggle.
Protests broke out in 2018
in the middle of a really bad economic crisis.
That's when Bashir faced his biggest challenge...
putting his protection scheme to the test.
The ultimate trigger was the government's budget...
which allocated about 60 to 70% to the security sector...
which included Bashir's protectors.
While Sudanese people struggled for basic needs.
This led to the biggest revolution
in Sudan's history.
Spontaneous protests broke
out in different parts of the country.
And then they shifted to Khartoum in the capital city.
Bashir refused to leave office.
The RSF, SAF, and other security sectors backed him...
and cracked down on the protesters
who ultimately wanted democracy.
But protesters didn't back down for months...
and it became clear to the RSF and SAF...
that Bashir's leadership wouldn't be as useful to them anymore.
So on April 11th, 2019...
they made a move that surprised civilians and Bashir.
SAF commanders colluded with the RSF’s Hemeti
and removed Bashir from power.
Protesters celebrated Bashir's removal...
but they didn't trust the man who made it happen.
A day after the coup, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan...
a formal regional commander in Darfur
took charge of the South.
Together, the two men gained control of Sudan.
People saw them as complicit in the violence in Darfur
all those years ago, where they worked together.
One as a member of the Sudan Armed Forces.
One as a militia leader on the same side...
against large proportions of the population of Darfur.
And soon, the two men turned on protesters.
When pro-democracy protests kept intensifying in Khartoum...
Hemeti and his forces started cracking down.
On June 3rd, 2019...
the RSF killed over 100 people at a sit in protest.
And other massacres continued throughout the country.
After this...
these countries were forced to step in
to help put Sudan on a democratic path.
The United States, with its Arab allies
the United Kingdom, Ethiopia, and the African Union...
pressured Sudan's military and protesters...
to accept a power sharing agreement.
In this new deal
representatives from both the military and protesters...
would be part of a transitional council.
In this plan, the military would have control for 21 months
and civilians for 18.
That meant the military would eventually have to hand over power
to civilians who run the country.
The problem was, despite warnings from protesters...
these two military men were put in charge of the council
with Burhan as chair and Hemeti as vice chair.
At first, the council acted in line with the agreement...
and installed a new prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok.
But after multiple military interventions by these leaders...
like a staged coup in October 2021...
Hamdok resigned in January 2022.
That made Burhan, the de facto leader of Sudan...
and Hemeti as his number two again.
But Hemeti was never quite comfortable
with playing second fiddle.
Especially because he had amassed this fortune
and had positioned himself to play the role of statesman...
almost better than Burhan himself.
As Burhan developed personal alliances with leaders
in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia over the years.
Hemeti did the same using his riches from the gold mines...
to build relationships with powerful individuals
in those countries as well.
After another year of protests...
the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the UK
pressured Burhan, Hemeti, and protesters to sign another deal.
On December 5th, 2020
Burhan, Hemeti and political parties signed it...
promising a new civilian-led transitional government by April 2023.
But these two men disagreed on a key part of the deal.
The RSF would need to become part of Burhan’s army...
which would limit Hemeti’s power.
Burhan wanted that to happen in two years.
But Hemeti proposed 10.
That disagreement caused a big rift between Burhan and Hemeti...
which led to the current conflict between the two men.
They've placed hundreds of thousands of armed men across the country.
Burhan and his army have an air force
that's responsible for many of the casualties.
And Hemeti’s finances allow him to arm more and more men on the ground.
Hundreds of civilians have been killed already...
and thousands have fled Sudan.
Cease fires have routinely been broken.
And talks between the warring parties have gone nowhere.
What was once a hopeful revolution
has been interrupted by these two men.
No matter who wins this war
protesters are left feeling betrayed...
by the country's de facto leaders
and also by the international community
that claimed to support their hopes
for democracy.
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