Short-Term Bullishness in a Bearish World: A Pro Trader's Perspective
Summary
TLDR本视频脚本讨论了交易策略和市场分析。演讲者强调了投机者在固定收益市场中的极端立场,以及如何利用市场确认来决定交易时机。他们提到了新闻失败的概念,即市场对新闻的反应与预期相反,这可以是一个转折点。此外,演讲者分享了自己的交易哲学,包括风险管理和对市场预测的怀疑态度,以及他们对黄金和欧元的交易观点。
Takeaways
- 📉 投机者在2022年对固定收益的做空在很大程度上是正确的,但并不是所有情况下反其道而行之都能获利,只有在极端情况下才有效。
- 🔄 投机者在3月份对固定收益的看空态度已经改变,这使得目前并不是一个看多固定收益的好时机。
- 📈 交易者强调市场确认的重要性,即使有交易想法,也需要市场给出相应的信号。
- 📊 “新闻失败”是一个重要的交易信号,即市场对重要新闻的反应与预期相反,这可能预示着市场趋势的转变。
- 🤔 交易者需要对市场新闻做出反应,而不是仅仅基于个人理论或预测,这涉及到对市场动态的深入理解和适应。
- 📊 交易者提到了股市在10月份的低点,CPI数据高于预期但股市并未下跌,这被视作是市场对看空者的失败信号。
- 📉 交易者对于纳斯达克和标普500的态度不同,他们认为尽管纳斯达克表现更好,但市场可能过于乐观,而标普500则被过度看空。
- 💰 交易者强调风险管理的重要性,认为长期盈利的关键在于合理的风险控制和止损策略。
- 📉 交易者目前最有信心的交易是做空黄金,并且他们根据市场极端情况和新闻反应来决定交易方向。
- 🚫 交易者不认为自己比市场更聪明,他们认为长期盈利的关键在于风险回报比,而不是预测市场的准确性。
- 💡 交易者提到了Stanley Druckenmiller的观点,即成功的交易者不是因为他们总是正确,而是因为他们知道如何在错误时控制损失,并在正确时让利润增长。
Q & A
投机者在2022年大部分时间里是如何操作固定收益产品的?
-投机者在2022年大部分时间里做空固定收益产品,特别是10年期国债,并在这一时期内他们的操作是正确的。
为什么说在极端情况下,与投机者反向操作效果最佳?
-在极端情况下,市场情绪往往过于一致,这时与大众情绪反向操作可能会取得更好的效果,因为市场往往在极端情绪后出现反转。
为什么说投机者目前不再做空固定收益产品?
-在3月份之后,小投机者已经不再做空固定收益产品,这使得市场对于固定收益产品的看法出现了变化,因此不再适合继续做空。
什么是'市场确认',为什么它在交易中很重要?
-市场确认是指市场的实际走势与交易者的预期相符,这是交易决策的重要依据。它确保交易者不是单凭个人预测而是根据市场的实际表现来做出交易决策。
如何理解'新闻失败'这个概念?
-'新闻失败'是指市场在出现预期之外的负面新闻后,并没有按照预期的方向下跌,这通常意味着市场上的空头或多头已经过度集中,市场可能即将反转。
为什么说风险管理是交易中最重要的概念?
-风险管理确保交易者在面对市场不确定性时能够有效控制损失,它是长期交易成功的关键,而不是简单地预测市场的涨跌。
为什么说大多数交易者无法长期准确预测市场?
-因为市场是由无数参与者的集体行为决定的,没有任何个体能够长期准确地预测这种集体行为的结果。
为什么交易者不应该只依赖于自己的预测来交易?
-依赖于个人预测来交易忽略了市场是由众多参与者共同决定的事实,而且个人的预测往往会受到认知偏差的影响,不如市场的实际表现可靠。
为什么说交易者应该关注风险回报比?
-风险回报比是衡量交易是否值得进行的关键指标,它帮助交易者评估每笔交易的潜在收益与潜在风险,从而做出更合理的交易决策。
为什么说交易者不应该只关注宏观经济因素?
-宏观经济因素虽然重要,但它们通常已经被市场所消化,而且每个人都能接触到这些信息,因此它们并不能为交易者提供独特的优势或'边缘'。
为什么交易者应该在市场出现极端情况时考虑反向操作?
-市场在达到极端情况时,往往意味着大多数人的预期已经过于一致,这可能导致市场出现反转,因此反向操作在这种情况下可能会取得成功。
为什么说交易者应该在市场确认自己的交易理论后再进行交易?
-市场确认可以验证交易者的预测是否正确,如果市场走势与交易者的预期不符,那么交易者应该重新评估自己的交易理论,并在必要时退出市场。
为什么说交易者在交易中不应该只追求正确?
-因为即使是最成功的交易者也无法总是做出正确的预测,关键在于如何管理风险和收益,即使在预测错误的情况下也能通过合理的风险管理获得盈利。
Outlines
📉 投机者极端情绪与市场转折点
第一段视频剧本讨论了投机者在2022年对固定收益的做空行为,并指出在极端情况下与投机者对立可能有效,但目前小投机者的情绪已改变,不再适合做多固定收益。此外,强调了市场确认交易的重要性,举例说明在股市低点时,尽管CPI数据高于预期,市场却未下跌,表明市场已对利空消息免疫,这是市场确认的信号,为做多提供了时机。
📈 风险管理与市场预测的局限性
第二段中,讨论了交易策略,特别是如何通过市场极端情况和新闻反应来确定交易方向。强调了风险管理的重要性,指出即使是顶尖交易者也不能总是准确预测市场,而是通过严格的止损和让盈利奔跑来实现盈利。提到了Stanley Druckenmiller的观点,即交易成功不在于总是正确,而在于当交易正确时能够获得足够的回报。
💶 欧元空头交易策略与市场分析
第三段讲述了基于市场参与者情绪和新闻反应的欧元空头交易策略。提到了欧洲央行会议结果比预期更为鹰派,本应利多欧元,但欧元却收跌,这成为了做空欧元的信号。讨论了在市场数据回归中性前保持空头头寸的计划,并强调了风险与回报的重要性,以及市场智慧的局限性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡投机者
💡极端情况
💡市场确认
💡新闻失败
💡多头和空头
💡风险管理
💡交易纪律
💡市场趋势
💡高贝塔股票
💡交易确认
💡止损点
Highlights
投机者在2022年做空固定收益资产,但市场极端情况出现时,逆向操作可能更有效。
市场确认是交易的重要方面,需要市场行为来验证交易策略。
新闻失败是市场对预期消息反应的失败,这可以作为交易信号。
纳斯达克和标普500指数之间的差异并不大,但市场行为表现出不同的偏好。
市场参与者对纳斯达克的看多情绪可能源于对高贝塔股票的追逐。
风险管理是交易的核心,预测市场走势并不总是有效的。
交易者应专注于风险收益比,而不是试图始终正确预测市场。
交易者应有纪律性,即使错过某些市场机会也要坚持自己的交易策略。
市场极端情况出现时,如小投机者不再看空,可能是市场转向的信号。
交易者应识别并退出那些与预期相反的市场走势。
Stanley Druckenmiller强调,交易成功不在于总是正确,而在于风险管理。
交易者应设置紧密的止损点,以控制每笔交易的风险。
银行股票的交易机会可能存在,但需要深入了解市场情况。
交易者应避免仅基于宏观经济因素做出交易决策。
市场参与者的集体智慧比任何个体都要强大,不应试图超越市场。
交易者应专注于寻找市场中的边缘优势,而不是普遍共识。
市场短期走势可能与长期基本面分析相悖,交易者应灵活应对。
Transcripts
and I see what you mean about the
turning point because speculators were
short fixed income to your notes 50
notes 10-year notes for throughout much
of 2022 and they were right so fading
the speculators doesn't always work but
you're saying it works best when it's at
an extreme and right now it is an
extreme well except the small
speculators are not right now in the
fixed income they were in March they're
not anymore which is keeping me from
from looking at getting long fixed
income now there's another level to this
okay because I always say to the people
like on my Discord and the people that
are get my newsletter the commitments of
Traders is not enough to make a trade
okay
and I would argue no matter how you're
trading no matter what your style of
trading is you need the market to
confirm what you want to do first that
is such an important aspect to trading
and including the trading that I do so
how so what do you mean confirmed well
everybody has to Define what confirm
means what it means for me because I'm a
turn picker right is okay so currency
Traders saying everybody's short I'm
looking to get long all right but I know
commitment to Traders isn't perfect so
I'm gonna wait I'm gonna wait for the
market to confirm that so what I mean by
confirm is the perfect example was the
low in stocks in October what you had at
the low in stocks in October right I
call it news failure what you had at the
low end stocks in October was CPI came
out and this was the main focus
obviously and still kind of is but
certainly last year was the main focus
of what was going on in stocks right
people were getting super bearish stocks
because inflation was not going away and
the Fed was going to have to keep
raising rates and yada yada right so in
October you had the CPI came out higher
than expected it was the highest CPI of
the year more importantly higher than
was even expected right and the stock
market of course went down on that news
that day and ended up closing up that
day that to me is news failure right it
gave the Bears every reason that they
wanted for the market to go down and the
market didn't go down and why is why is
that to me it's because everybody's
already short okay but I wait until I
get that news failure right and then
that's when I will get long because that
is the market now confirming that it's
time to go right and you um so a bearish
news item that fails to sink the stock
markets that's a failure for the Bears
in the same way a great news item and
the stock market goes down that's a
failure for the bull so it's those those
that's news failure that's really
interesting and so yeah Jason what do
you what do you think now I mean what
would have to happen for you to turn
bearish and also or even neutral and
also what is it why is everyone so long
the NASDAQ but then short the S P 500
that seems like a you know a basis trade
it's not that big the difference between
the NASDAQ and the S P 500 it's like you
know Apple's 11 instead of seven percent
it's it's different but if you look at
the correlations they're pretty similar
right the correlation's similar the
return certainly this year has not been
similar and as except like whatever the
number is 30 and the S P's up like eight
but they've chased it I mean look
they've chased it clearly a trend
follower doesn't necessarily have to be
long the s p here but it's trying to
follow our house will be long the NASDAQ
here all right there ain't no Trend
following system along the NASDAQ here
right so they've chased it from the
trend following point of view and I
think from a fundamental point of view
people have been so short
and underperforming in the hedge fund
world in the long short Equity world and
all that that they've probably had to
chase the high beta stock to try and
make up here is my guess I I'm making
that up I don't know but that would be
my guess as to why those people are
starting to get long NASDAQ I mean
people chase what's working that that's
just natural right and that NASDAQ is
working so they're chasing that one
Higher
right so NASDAQ doesn't have the energy
to companies doesn't have the materials
companies the real estate communication
or uh you know it's it's really big cap
Tech and Apple has been performing
incredibly well Nvidia ridiculously well
like you know 25 uh relative to the Past
day we're recording on uh May 25th so
okay NASDAQ has been outperforming the S
P 500 so are you short are you are you
embarrassed in NASDAQ because everyone
is so bullish no I don't think that
they're so bullish they're getting
bullish but when they are so bullish
then I will start to get bearish yeah
okay I think we're getting close but for
me we're not there yet the small
speculators are still short NASDAQ
that's why and the large speculars
aren't maximum long and again the market
can go down from here
it's just going down without me yeah I
mean like I trade a certain thing and I
I stay very disciplined to that certain
thing and I miss moves all the time okay
whatever is going on in you know
some other market today soybeans or
whatever I am not a part of right
because I am not in soybeans right now
there are times when I am in soybeans
but it's not now right so it can go down
but it's going down without me so what's
your highest conviction trade now short
gold a long s p short gold is my highest
conviction Trader and and that those are
just for CO2 reasons all of my trades
are exactly the same the cot shows
extremes the market fails on news that
should have made it go
I go the other way that's what every
single one of my boring trades looks
like got it it gets back to neutral I
get out or if I get short it takes out
the new high I get stopped you know I'm
picking a turn so by definition if I
short something and it makes a new high
then I didn't pick the turn did I so I'm
wrong I get out I think that's another
important concept for people to have
when they're trading not only I want to
be long this I should wait for the
market to confirm at first but where is
my theory wrong right whatever it is
because then I have to get out you know
my theory is this thing's breaking out
okay well where has that breakout failed
because then you got to get out you know
more important
to any of this crap is that risk
management is what this game really is
about people want to to believe that
it's about I can predict whether a
Market's going to go up or down right
I'm here to tell you you can't over time
and neither can I and neither can George
Soros and neither can Stanley
druckenmiller and Stanley druckenmiller
is the first one to admit it one of my
favorite quotes of all time Stanley
Drucker Miller is probably arguably the
greatest Trader alive okay if he's not
he's certainly pretty damn close right I
would argue he is but he has quotes
where he says I am wrong way too much to
count on being right to make money I had
to figure out another way to make money
other than being right and wrong and I
have a client who who has had money
would would stand for for many many
years and he tells me the guy writes up
these monthly reports and stuff and he
said he's a beautiful writer and he
makes these incredible arguments and
they're wrong 80 percent of the time
he's like if he were to read it and you
would say Stanley drucken Miller is
writing this and it's so well written
and he's so smart you would follow every
single thing that he did
he's like but it's wrong 80 of the time
but he still makes money because that's
what he's trying to do he's not trying
to be right he's not trying to predict
the future he's just trying to make
money by having a tight stop loss and
then when the trade Works he let it run
is that that's certainly one way to do
it yes is that how you do it that's how
I try to do it yeah I mean that's what
my my trades are right less than 40 of
the time somewhere between 35 and 40
percent of the time my trades work which
means I lose over 60 percent of the time
but my payout is like four to one so
I'll make four I'll lose one so make
four lose one make four lose one
make four thirty five percent of that
time lose one 65 percent of the time
do that over time let time pass and
you're gonna end up with positive
returns how tight do you run stops so
it's pretty tight because I I'm getting
like you take that s p for example trade
in October at the low my stop would have
been the lower that day so I know how
much I'm trying to risk per trade which
in my case is 70 basis points of trade I
know my entry I know my stop therefore I
size my trade so that if I'm stopped I
lose 70 basis points and I I use 70
basis points just because that gets me
to my my Vol Target which is around a
seven other people have higher of all
Targets than that so they can risk more
portrayed but that's how I do it
basically risking one day's worth of
volatility Jason what do you make about
the bank stocks I don't think there's
Futures on a bank ETF but you know the
individual Bank stocks they've been
moving up all day how much you know
trading pay attention do you pay
attention to individual stocks and then
yeah I mean what do you make about the
bank stocks do you see any opportunities
there I'm not an equity Trader you're a
future Trader yeah I don't really know
what the position in the bank stocks is
I personally would not be long Bank
stocks but that doesn't mean that they
can't go up it's been dead money for a
very very long time I think Citibank is
probably trading at the same place it
was you know 18 years ago or something
you know it's not where I would be but I
I'm not informed enough or or smart
enough to really understand what's going
on with these Regional Banks
um I do have a friend a very good friend
of mine who's a a mortgage broker and
has been for 30 years and he's all into
it he tells me I talk to him every
weekend he tells me every weekend the
whole story and the whole problem and
then this and that and the other thing
and it doesn't sound very good to me but
I I don't trade him in nor nor would I
trade them got it so what are you seeing
in in the markets other than stocks and
bonds I mean yeah let's oil copper I
guess you said you're uh you're on the
dollar short the Euro yes sure yeah why
is that you tell me well I I'm starting
to find the chart here but uh look at
the Euro though commercial index was
Zero that means the commercials as short
as they could be large speculators as
long as they can be small speculators
just about as long as they can be all
right and we had that going in I got
short the year about three weeks ago
going in to the ECB meeting which was
more hawkish than people expected legard
came out and was more hawkish
Than People expect it which should be
bullish for the Euro which should be
bullish for the Euro and it closed down
that day and that's where I got short
and if it had taken out that day's high
or if it still does take out that day's
High I will get stopped otherwise I will
ride that Euro short until this data
goes back to 50. one of those three
things goes back to 50 which is neutral
and there I will take my profit
hopefully got it that that makes sense
all right so in your uh crowded market
report you use write that you're not
ignorant of underlying conditions in the
world or the market in that you you
don't disagree with the following points
an economy on the brink of a major
slowdown a banking situation that could
continue to get much uglier government
running up deficits with no Insight uh
that the debt ceiling Federal Reserve
paid into a corner um societal political
breakdown so all of these points are you
know medium term long term perhaps a
little somewhat bearish how do you
square that with your short-term bullish
view on on the market and I was being
nice when I wrote those things I could
come up with things like hello a lot
worse than that okay because I don't
care about that stuff you know
especially if everybody can see it what
am I seeing that other people aren't
seeing and therefore how do you make
money like if you don't have an edge
you're not going to make money right
what's the edge in saying those things
right now when every single person comes
on TV and says those things to me
there's no Edge there right when they
give up on those ideas there will be an
edge to those ideas okay but to me
there's there's there's absolutely no
Edge there so so I'm not saying I
disagree with that stuff that's sort of
the point I'm trying to make I see that
stuff just as clearly as everybody else
sees that stuff right but I don't care
what I care about is everybody's short
therefore I'm going to be long that
that's it and does that mean that my
thing is going to work no I could lose
money I could get stopped it happens all
the time right but it's risk reward
that's all that that's all this game is
to me and it should be to everybody else
too risk reward right and I hear people
talk about risk all the time oh I'm
buying this thing and to me it's a three
to one three to one based on what like
you're just making up some number you
know I mean like based on what so you
really have to focus on that this is
about you're not going to make money by
out thinking the market over time it's
impossible you could be the single
smartest person on earth and Jack you
might be you went to an Ivy League
school you might be the smartest person
on Earth for all I know but what I do
know what I do know is you are not
smarter than everybody combined because
that's impossible okay and market price
is everybody combined all these millions
of people that are involved in the
market and all these trillions and
trillions of dollars that are invested
in the market right is all of
everybody's thought processes combined
and you are not smarter than that nobody
is it's impossible Einstein whoever you
want it to be is not smarter than that
then everyone combined so you're not
going to make money playing the game of
I'm smarter right I know that the
economy is going to be therefore
I'm going to be short it's ridiculous
okay and it's it's just it's bad and
I've been there okay so I know how
ridiculous it is because I was
ridiculous as well and at a certain
point I decided I would rather start to
make money than try to prove that I'm
smart if I want to prove I'm smart I'll
I'll try to do it some other way you
know what I mean I'll go and read a
physics textbook and start doing physics
or something right I don't care about
that anymore I just want to make money
from my clients that that's it so that's
what you really have to focus on risk
reward of a trade and how you're going
to decide what are the risk reward is
good
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