A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here

Summary

The video script discusses a potential bull market, drawing parallels between current economic indicators and the 1995 market boom. It highlights similarities in CPI inflation, GDP growth, and corporate earnings growth, suggesting a new era driven by AI and digital economy advancements. The speaker emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on business, comparing it to the internet revolution, and encourages investors to stay focused despite market volatility, anticipating significant growth ahead.

Takeaways

• 🚀 A massive bull market akin to 1995 is being predicted, with the potential to make many investors wealthy.
• 📈 Historical data from 1995 is being compared to current market conditions, highlighting similar economic indicators such as CPI inflation, FED interest rates, GDP growth, and corporate earnings growth.
• 💡 The speaker suggests that we are at the beginning of a new era driven by AI, similar to how the internet revolutionized business in the mid-90s.
• 🔢 Current economic indicators show a potential for growth, with inflation at 2.9%, FED interest rates at 5.25%, and GDP growth at 2.8%.
• 📊 The tech sector, particularly companies involved with AI, is expected to show strong earnings growth, mirroring the 14.5% growth seen in 1995.
• 🌐 The potential impact of AI on business operations is compared to the early days of the internet, suggesting a transformative effect on productivity and GDP growth.
• 📉 Despite the positive outlook, the speaker acknowledges that there will be market volatility, including crashes and pullbacks, which are normal in a bull market cycle.
• 💸 The script emphasizes the importance of staying invested during market dips, as they can shake out less informed investors and present opportunities for those with conviction.
• 📚 The parallels drawn between 1995 and the present suggest a 'soft landing' for the economy, with the potential for the FED to cut interest rates and stimulate further growth.
• 📉 The speaker mentions that despite the bullish setup, the market has not yet reached 'hyperdrive', indicating that there may still be significant upside potential.
• 🛑 The script concludes with a reminder to investors to stay focused and not be swayed by fear, as the fundamentals suggest a strong market ahead.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 1995 stock market numbers mentioned in the script?

The 1995 stock market numbers are significant because they mark the beginning of one of the biggest bull runs in the history of the stock market, which led to substantial wealth creation for many investors from 1995 to 1999.

What was the S&P 500's performance during the bull run from 1995 to 1999?

The S&P 500 performed exceptionally well, growing by 200% during this period, which equates to an average of 50% growth per year.

How did the NASDAQ perform compared to the S&P 500 during the same period?

The NASDAQ outperformed the S&P 500, with a growth of 440% during the same period, averaging 110% growth per year.

What is the potential impact of AI on the current market, as suggested in the script?

The script suggests that AI has the potential to revolutionize business operations, similar to how the internet did in the 1990s, and could lead to a new era of significant market growth.

What are the parallels drawn between the current market conditions and those of 1995?

The parallels include similar inflation rates, Federal interest rates, GDP growth, and corporate earnings growth, suggesting a potential for a similar bull market as seen in 1995.

What was the GDP growth rate in 1995, and how does it compare to the current rate mentioned in the script?

The GDP growth rate in 1995 was 2.7%, which is almost identical to the current rate of 2.8% mentioned in the script.

How did the script describe the potential impact of AI on business decision-making?

The script describes AI as a game-changer that can significantly speed up business decision-making processes, doing in milliseconds what used to take weeks.

What is the script's perspective on the current market's reaction to AI and its potential?

The script suggests that the market has not yet fully realized the potential of AI, and that the current growth is just the beginning of what could be a much larger bull market.

How does the script address concerns about potential market downturns or recessions?

The script acknowledges these concerns but argues that despite past downturns, the overall market has seen significant growth, and the current setup with AI and other factors could lead to substantial gains.

What advice does the script give to investors regarding market fluctuations and potential drops?

The script advises investors to stay focused on fundamentals, maintain conviction in their investments, and not be scared off by market drops, as these can shake out less informed investors.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Potential for a New Bull Market in Tech

The speaker introduces a comparison between the current market conditions and the booming bull market of 1995, which was driven by the internet revolution. They highlight similar economic indicators such as CPI inflation, FED interest rates, GDP growth, and corporate earnings growth on the S&P 500. The speaker suggests that we are on the brink of a massive bull run, driven by AI and tech advancements, similar to how the internet transformed businesses in the '90s. They emphasize the potential for significant wealth creation but caution about the volatility and market corrections that will likely occur, using the recent market drop on August 5th as an example of such events.

05:01

📈 Drawing Parallels Between 1995 and Current Market Dynamics

This paragraph delves deeper into the economic parallels between 1995 and the present, focusing on GDP growth, corporate earnings, and the impact of technological revolutions. The speaker points out that the GDP growth rates are nearly identical, and corporate earnings in the tech sector are showing strong growth, mirroring the patterns of the '90s. They discuss the transformative effect of AI on business operations, comparing it to the early days of the internet, and argue that this new digital economy and AI revolution are poised to drive significant GDP growth. Despite market skepticism and concerns about recessions or geopolitical issues, the speaker remains optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the market, especially with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected to stimulate further growth.

10:01

💡 Staying Convicted Amidst Market Volatility

The final paragraph addresses the psychological aspect of investing, encouraging investors to maintain conviction in their positions even during market pullbacks or drops. The speaker uses the example of a previous investment in 'paler' that dropped significantly but later recovered to illustrate the importance of staying the course. They acknowledge that the market may experience more 'scary events' ahead but emphasize the need to keep a level head and not be swayed by fear. The speaker concludes by reiterating the potential for significant market growth, especially with the backdrop of a new technological revolution and favorable economic conditions.

Keywords

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the context of the video, it's highlighted that the CPI inflation rate is at 2.8%, which is a key economic indicator. The script discusses how inflation rates in 1995 were similar to the present, setting the stage for a potential bull market in stocks.

💡FED Interest Rate

The FED Interest Rate, or Federal Funds Rate, is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. It's a critical tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence monetary policy. The script mentions the FED interest rate being at 5.7%, drawing a parallel to the rates in 1995, suggesting a potential easing of rates could stimulate economic growth and stock market performance.

💡GDP Growth

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is the rate of change of a country's total economic output. It's an important indicator of economic health. The script compares the GDP growth of 2.7% in 1995 to the current growth rate, indicating a stable economy and a potential for a similar growth trajectory as seen in the past.

💡Corporate Earnings

Corporate earnings refer to the profits that a company generates, which are often used to evaluate a firm's financial performance. The video script discusses the growth in corporate earnings on the S&P 500, which grew by 14.5% in 1995, and draws a comparison to the tech sector's growth in the current year, suggesting a bullish outlook for the stock market.

💡Bull Run

A bull run refers to a prolonged period of rising prices in a financial market, typically driven by investor optimism. The script uses the term to describe the significant increase in stock prices from 1995 to 1999, and suggests that a similar bull run may be on the horizon due to current economic conditions.

💡NASDAQ

The NASDAQ is a stock exchange platform that is home to many technology and internet-related companies. In the script, the NASDAQ's performance during the 1990s tech boom is compared to its current performance, with the implication that a similar surge could occur due to advancements in AI and technology.

💡AI Revolution

The AI Revolution refers to the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on various industries and society at large. The video script suggests that we are in the early stages of an AI-driven bull market, similar to the internet boom of the 1990s, with AI technologies like CH GPT having a significant impact on business operations and potentially driving economic growth.

💡R&D Investment Cycles

R&D Investment Cycles refer to periods of significant investment in research and development within an industry or economy. The script mentions that massive R&D investment cycles in 1995 led to the creation of companies like Microsoft and Intel, and draws a parallel to current investment in AI and technology, suggesting a similar wave of innovation and growth.

💡Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a current era characterized by a fusion of technologies that are blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres. The video script positions the AI boom as part of this revolution, indicating that the integration of AI into various sectors could lead to significant economic and market changes.

💡Rate Cut Cycle

A rate cut cycle refers to a series of reductions in interest rates by a central bank, typically aimed at stimulating economic activity. The script suggests that the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle could lead to a significant increase in the S&P 500's performance, as it historically has, and could further fuel a bull market.

💡Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is a measure of market sentiment that indicates the degree to which investors are feeling either fearful or greedy. The script mentions that the index is currently on the fear side, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its peak and that a shift to greed could signal further growth.

Highlights

A once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity is starting, with the potential to create many millionaires in the next few months.

Historical data from 1995 is being compared to the present, highlighting similarities in economic indicators such as CPI inflation, FED interest rate, GDP growth, and corporate earnings growth.

1995 marked the beginning of one of the biggest bull runs in stock market history, with the S&P 500 growing by 200% and the NASDAQ by 440%.

The speaker predicts a massive bull run for the next few years, with the caveat that it will not be a straight upward trajectory due to expected market volatility.

The summer low is most commonly in August, with the first week of August being the most common week for it, suggesting that the worst of the market downturn may be over.

Massive CAPEX and R&D investment cycles in 1995, with companies like Microsoft, Intel, and Netscape leading the charge, are being mirrored today with AI and tech companies.

The potential of AI, similar to the early internet, to revolutionize access to information and business operations is highlighted.

The speaker emphasizes that we are in the early stages of a bull market driven by AI and tech advancements, akin to the internet boom of the mid-90s.

Current economic conditions are compared to 1995, noting the potential for a soft landing of the economy with proactive Federal Reserve actions.

GDP growth rates are similar to those of 1995, suggesting a parallel in economic expansion driven by technological advancements.

AI's impact on business efficiency and decision-making is presented as a game-changing event, with the potential to significantly boost GDP growth.

Despite market skepticism and fears of recession, the speaker argues that the fundamentals of the market remain strong, drawing parallels to the S&P 500's performance over the past 15 years.

Earnings growth in the tech sector of the S&P 500 is noted, with expectations for continued growth in 2024, mirroring the earnings growth of 1995.

The market's current performance is analyzed, showing a significant rally but not yet reaching the hyperdrive seen in 1995, indicating potential for further growth.

The introduction of CH GPT in 2022 is compared to the invention of the internet in 1994, suggesting a new era of technological advancement and market growth.

Recent economic data points such as CPI, retail sales, and job claims are presented as positive indicators, countering market fear.

The Fear and Greed index is mentioned to illustrate market sentiment, suggesting that the true upside potential is yet to be realized when sentiment shifts from fear to greed.

The speaker concludes by encouraging investors to stay focused and not be scared off by potential market drops, emphasizing the long-term potential of the current setup.

Transcripts

folks a once in A- lifetime opportunity

starts today and sadly most individual

investors are going to miss out on it

the next few months are going to make a

lot of millionaires but a lot of people

going to miss out now look I'm going to

read you some data and I want you to pay

attention we have CPI inflation at

2.8% the FED interest rate at

5.7% the GDP growth at

2.7% and corporate ear ings on the S&P

500 growing by 14 A5 per. the data I

just read to you the data is in 2024

this is

1995 numbers now why am I talking about

1995 numbers listen up 1995 marked one

of the biggest bull runs in the history

of the stock market it met a lot of

people Rich it me a lot of people

lifechanging money from 1995 to 1999 the

S&P 500 did 200% that's 50% a year now

the NASDAQ went even crazier the NASDAQ

did 440 per. that's

110% per year for four straight years

imagine if you own a company with a

three beta that's 1200% 1300% this is

insane this is lifechanging money this

is big now I want to show you some data

and then we'll talk about the current

setup of the market but I think I think

we're looking down the barrel of a

massive Bull Run for the next few years

of course of course it's not going to be

straight up now people think that when I

say these things I mean that from this

point on for the next four years we're

going to shoot up on the 45 degree angle

no there's going to be a lot of bumps

there's going to be a lot of crashes a

lot of pullbacks a lot of scare events

that are designed to shake out the

weekends and one of them was just a

preview the August 5th Monday was just a

preview for the bigger crashes the

biggest drops that are still in the

barrel and they're going to scare a lot

of people since 1928 the most common for

the summer low is August and the most

common week is the first week of August

so I think maybe the worst is behind us

but it doesn't mean we're straight up

from here we had massive massive CAPIC

investment Cycles massive R&D investment

Cycles in 1995 companies like Microsoft

like Intel like Netscape you know

Netscape in 1994 basically was

considered to this day kind of the

invention of broad use retail internet

imagine a world where every word ever

written every picture ever painted and

every film ever shot could be viewed

instantly in your home VI an information

Super Highway and in fact that's already

happening on something called the

internet that anyone in the world with a

computer and a modem connected to a

telephone line can subscribe to all of

this craziness that happened basically

is repeating itself today with the same

CICS investing cycles and R&D investing

Cycles with AI with Nvidia with

Microsoft and similar companies but you

know the times have changed but the

concept is pretty much the same just

like we had the internet pop in 1994 and

the massive Bull Run came for the next

five years the AI cycle is just in its

diapers it's just starting out we are

just in the early stages of a bull

market and if you look at what we've

seen from AI Revolution just from

broader Tech it's been strong from an

earnings perspective and the growth

scare that we saw it's just a bump in

the road to what I believe is really

this fourth Industrial Revolution

playing out and that's how we've

handheld investors through this this is

the time to own Tech and I believe it's

really just to start still 9900 p.m. in

an AI party that we believe goes to 4:00

a.m. in

1995 the inflation numbers were

2.8% the Fed was at

5.75% interest rate right now we're

literally at 2.9% inflation and

5.25 interest rate so it is almost an

identical setup now what happened in the

next few years is that the FED took the

interest rates from 5.75 to

4.75 for the next three years until 1998

and inflation dropped to

1.6% so we had a three-year cutting

cycle of 1% and inflation dropping from

2.8 to 1.6 what exactly are the

parallels between now and Circa 1995 the

main parallels are that we have

inflation that is lowering uh and an

economy that is not collapsing um you've

got the the labor market that's slowing

consumers hanging in there inflation

peaked two years ago and is now under 3%

uh so the FED is in a good position here

if they can be proactive enough with the

economy still showing some resilience

and inflation way past its peak you've

still got a good chance to soft land

this economy that means slowing growth

enough that you the FED cuts and then

you begin to see credit prompt or

promote more growth so that's that's a

good sign a very strongr connection

between now and the summer of 95 the

crazy part about this that it doesn't

end there the GDP the gross domestic

product growth in 1995 was

2.7% right now right now it's a 2.8%

it's almost identical in 1996 we went up

to 3.8% then in 1998 to 4.5% and in 1999

we hit 4.8% GDP growth that cycle was

fueled by globalization by the internet

the the Baby Boomers were peing the

globalization was taking over and the

internet was basically creating a lot of

new business that created massive growth

to the economy right now we have a whole

new digital economy starting out and on

top of it we have the whole AI

Revolution basically changing the way

everybody does business we've seen

people at these penter events talk about

how this new system the AIP essentially

takes a thing that used to take weeks to

get done and it does it in seconds we're

on a model

we score our database we execute we wait

6 months to see what happens and then we

collate a lot of information we argue

amongst ourselves we used to have six

weeks to make those decisions now we've

got to make those decisions in

milliseconds so Foundry and AIP have

been terrific for us we actually

launched the first prototype within 45

days and that was just amazing from my

perspective this is a game-changing

event that we're seeing in front of us

right now with AI basically

revolutionizing how business is done and

that is going to translate into more GDP

growth now people are skeptic and I get

it people will always say oh recession

is coming up a crash is coming up

geopolitics is a mess you know over the

past 15 years you had a lot of reasons

to sell a lot of reasons to sell but at

the end of the day the S&P 500 went up

by 700% 15% per year despite all the

crashes and the collapses and all this

crap now look even if you look at

earnings

S&P 500 earnings in 1995 grew by

14.5% if you look right now at the tech

sector in the s&p500 which is Microsoft

Nvidia Google and all these companies

the tech sector essentially grew by 15%

in 2023 and is expected to do 12% in

2024 we have a cooling down inflation

GDP growth on the move up and corporate

earnings that are improving and are

staying strong because of this new cycle

then it was the internet and now it's

the AI boom and yet despite all these

similarities and despite all this great

setup the stock market hasn't really

gone to hyperdrive yet like it did in

1995 yes we've seen a 40% rally on the

S&P 500 but if you go back all the way

to December of 2021 from December of

2021 to now the S&P 500 did 16% that's

like five and a half percent per year

NASDAQ did 5.8% per year giving us

17.4% the iwm the Russ of 2000 the small

caps actually lost 12% and the market

gave us nothing nothing for the past

three years we've seen a bounce back but

not really that hyper Drive we've seen

in 1995 now look at the AI boom right

the invention of CH GPT in November of

2022 you know let's call it the

equivalent of the invention of the

internet in 1994 right well since the

introduction of Netscape in 1994 for the

first 700 days the market the NASDAQ was

up

120% since the invention of chat GPT we

have gone through about 630 days so

almost 700 days the NASDAQ is up 65% S&P

is up 44% we're still half way to where

we were in 1994 and CH GPT is actually a

lot bigger than the invention of

internet as far as the impact it's going

to have on businesses we've seen just

the beginning of it right now what we

have is a setup that's very interesting

the CPI is a 2.9% retail sales have just

doubled from 04 to 1% doubl than

expected

we have Walmart coming out saying hey

earnings are great people are buying

like crazy job claims actually better

than expected after the initial scare

we've seen from the unemployment stuff

we have Warren Buffett buying consumer

discretionary Ulta we have Bill Amman

buying up Nike GDP is at almost 3% and

everybody's still fearful if you look at

the fear and GD index it's on fear so if

it is on fear it means that the upside

isn't here yet because the upside will

be here when everybody's going to be at

Max greed not when everybody's at fear

so this setup is beautiful especially

with the FED starting a cutting cycle we

know one thing once the FED is going to

be done with the cutting cycle the S&P

500 on average gives you 26% in the

following year and that's just the S&P

500 with the rate cut cycle when you add

in good macroeconomic data good

corporate earnings and the invention

that reduction of AI into the business

world that just starting out you're

talking about massive cataclysmic impact

that hasn't been seen yet and when

people talk to me about a pullback or

drop yeah it may come sure but here's

the thing what happens if the market

drops is it shakes out a lot of people

who don't understand fundamentals who

don't have conviction the same thing

would happen with paler when paler

dropped from $35 to $7 a lot of people

got spooked because it's scary it's

scary I get it but the people who had

convictions like me basically stayed in

and we're back to $32 right now nothing

happened the same thing with this Market

me saying saying hey this is 1995 we're

going to go to 1999 it's not going to be

in the straight line there might be more

scary events ahead so make sure you keep

your head in the game stay focused and

make sure you don't get scared I'll see

you the next one