🚨 An Ominous Signal Just Flashed for Stocks!!

Summary

Das Skript des heutigen Finanzvideos deckt eine Vielzahl von Themen ab, darunter den Aktienmarkt, den Rückgang der Inflation, die jüngsten Trades von Milliardärsfondsmanagern und eine massive Cyberattacke auf den Iran. Es analysiert die Auswirkungen auf den S&P 500, die VIX-Indizes und die Währungsschwankungen, bietet Einblicke in die Portfolioentscheidungen von bekannten Investoren und präsentiert eine ominöse Signal für den Markt, die durch die Aussagen von Mike Wilson hervorgerufen wurde. Zudem werden geopolitische Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffe und Gold diskutiert.

Takeaways

• 📈 Der Aktienmarkt schließt höher, mit Nachweis eines abklingenden Inflationsdrucks.
• 💡 Ein massiver Cyberangriff auf den Iranischen Zentralbank und drohende Signale für den Aktienmarkt.
• 📊 Die S&P 500 ist wieder über ihrem 50-Tage-Volume-gewichteten Durchschnitt, während der NASDAQ-Index und der Russell 2000 noch nicht ganz diesen Schwellenwert erreicht haben.
• 📉 Die zwei schwächsten Sektoren auf dem Markt sind Energie und Verbraucherdiscretionary.
• 📉 Der VIX-Index hat sich beeindruckend zurückgebogen, was möglicherweise eine Kaufgelegenheit für Volatilität darstellt.
• 💰 Einige Hedge-Fund-Manager haben ihre Positionen im zweiten Quartal geändert, was auf interessante Strategien hindeutet.
• 💡 Die Inflationsraten sinken, was als positives Signal für den Aktienmarkt angesehen werden kann.
• 📊 Die S&P 500 hat sich über 45% in 4 Tagen erhöht, was historisch oft ein bullishes Signal ist.
• 🌐 Die globale Makroökonomie und die Geopoltik beeinflussen die Rohstoffmärkte und die Währungen.
• 🛡️ Es gibt eine drohende Cyberbedrohung und geopolitische Spannungen, die den Iran betreffen könnten.
• 🤔 Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley hat wieder eine Marktprognose gemacht, die einige Beobachter besorgt macht, da seine vorherigen Vorhersagen oft fehlgeschlagen sind.

Q & A

Was ist das Hauptthema des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?

Das Hauptthema ist die positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Aktienmarkt, einschließlich der abklingenden Inflation, Aktionen von Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Managern und einer massiven Cyberattacke auf den Iran.

Was zeigt der S&P 500 Index in Bezug auf die Marktentwicklung?

Der S&P 500 Index zeigt, dass der Markt weiterhin von seinem starken Verkauf im letzten Monat erholt und nun wieder über dem 50-Tage Volume Weighted Average liegt.

Welche Sektoren sind im aktuellen Marktzustande am schwächsten?

Die am schwächsten Sektoren auf dem Markt sind der Energiesektor und der Verbraucherdiscretionary-Sektor.

Was ist das beste Zeichen für den Aktienmarkt, basierend auf der VIX-Index-Entwicklung?

Der stärkste Rückgang der VIX-Index, der von 65 auf einen 16-Handle sinkt, könnte ein gutes Kaufsignal für Volatilität bieten, insbesondere wenn man auf einen Bullish Call Spread setzt.

Wie hat sich die Inflationserwartung im aktuellen Markt verändert?

Die Inflationserwartungen haben sich positiv verändert, mit einer besser als erwarteten monatlichen Inflation von 2,9%, was auf eine abklingende Inflation hindeutet.

Was bedeuten die jüngsten Aktionen von Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Managern?

Die Aktionen der Milliardärs-Hedge-Fund-Manager, die in ihren Form 13F eingereicht haben, zeigen, welche Aktien sie gekauft und verkauft haben, was auf ihre Marktprognosen hindeutet.

Was ist Warren Buffetts neueste Investition?

Warren Buffett hat eine neue Position in Ulta Beauty aufgebaut und hat seine Position in Snowflake verkauft.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Marktbewegungen für die zukünftige Fed-Politik?

Die abklingende Inflation und die stabilisierende Währung könnten ein Zeichen dafür sein, dass die Fed ihre Zinssenkungen in naher Zukunft überdenken könnte.

Welche Rolle spielt die Immigration in der aktuellen Inflation?

Die Immigration hat möglicherweise einen größeren Einfluss auf die Inflation als erkannt, da die Nachfrage in vielen Branchen stärker als die Angebotsseite reagiert hat.

Was ist das ominöse Signal für den Aktienmarkt, das in dem Bericht erwähnt wird?

Das ominöse Signal ist eine neue Marktprognose von Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley, der keine großen Aktienmarkt kollaps vorsieht, was einige Beobachter beunruhigen könnte, da er in den letzten Jahren eine Reihe von falschen Vorhersagen gemacht hat.

Was sind die möglichen Auswirkungen der Cyberattacke auf den Iran?

Die Cyberattacke auf den Iran könnte geopolitische Spannungen erhöhen und Auswirkungen auf den Rohstoffmarkt, insbesondere auf den Ölpreis, haben.

Was sind die Erwartungen für die nächste Fed-Tagung in Bezug auf Zinssenkungen?

Die Märkte erwarten, dass die Fed bei ihrer nächsten Tagung in Jackson Hole Hinweise auf eine mögliche Zinssenkung geben wird, insbesondere wenn die Arbeitsmarktzahlen günstig sind.

Was sind die langfristigen Auswirkungen der aktuellen US-Regierungsschulden auf die Wirtschaft?

Die rapide steigenden US-Regierungsschulden könnten langfristig zu einer Unsicherheit führen und die Nachfrage nach sicheren Anlagen wie kurzfristigen US-Bundesanleihen erhöhen.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Aktienmarkt steigt - Hedge-Fund-Managers zeigen neue Trades

Der erste Absatz des Skripts fasst die aktuellen Entwicklungen auf dem Aktienmarkt zusammen, mit einem Schwerpunkt auf der Abkühlung der Inflation und den neuesten Handelsaktivitäten von Hedge-Fund-Managern. Der S&P 500 hat nach einem harten Verkaufssturz wieder zugeschlagen, und es wird auf eine massive Cyberattacke auf den Iran und ein ominöses Signal für den Aktienmarkt hingewiesen. Die Diskussion umfasst Marktstruktur, Volatilität, VIX-Index und Optionenstrategien, wie Bullish Call Spreads und die Nutzung von Volatilität, um Schutz oder Hedges zu erwerben. Zudem werden die aktuellen Marktfaktoren wie Schwächen in der Energie- und Verbrauchsdiscretionary-Branche, sowie die Stärke der Währung und Inflationserwartungen diskutiert.

05:01

📉 Analyse des Aktienmarkt-Rückgangs und saisonale Schwächen

Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die historischen Schwächen von Aktien im August und September und die Bedeutung, dass der S&P 500 über 5.000 Punkte bleibt. Es wird auf den Sam-Regel-Indikator eingegangen, der eine steigende Arbeitslosigkeit signalisiert, die oft mit einer kommenden Rezession assoziiert ist. Trotzdem zeigt die Historie, dass die US-Aktienmärkte oft stärker sind, wenn der Sam-Regel ausgelöst wird. Es wird auch auf die positiven Gewinnerwartungen und die Sektoren, die das Wachstum anführen, eingegangen, sowie auf die Chancen, dass Small-Cap-Anteile in der Zukunft wieder einen Durchbruch erleben könnten.

10:02

🌐 Einflüsse der Immigration auf Inflation und Wirtschaftszyklen

Der dritte Absatz diskutiert die Auswirkungen der Immigration auf die Inflation und die Versorgung mit Gütern und Dienstleistungen. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Zuwanderung in den letzten Jahren stärker als die Angebotsseite der Industrien zugenommen hat, was zu einer Verzerrung geführt hat. Es wird auch auf die mögliche Deflation und die Tendenz der Märkte und Volkswirtschaften, um das durchschnittliche Niveau zu schwanken, hingewiesen. Zudem werden die Prognosen von Nordia für die weitere Abkühlung der Kern-Inflation und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Zentralbankpolitik diskutiert.

15:03

💼 Aktionen von Hedge-Fund-Managern und ihre Portfolio-Strategien

In diesem Absatz werden die Handelsaktivitäten und Portfolio-Strategien einiger bekannter Hedge-Fund-Manager wie Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman und Michael Burry beschrieben. Buffett hat neue Positionen in Ulta Beauty aufgebaut und Snowflake verkauft, während seine beste Position bei Bank of America und American Express liegt. Ackman hat eine neue Position bei Nike aufgebaut und bei Hilton und Chipotle Restaurants gehalten. Burry hat seine Positionen in Alibaba und anderen chinesischen Aktien aufgestockt. Die Analyse zeigt, wie diese Manager ihre Positionen im Hinblick auf die Marktbewegungen und ihre eigenen Überzeugungen anpassen.

20:04

📊 Prognosen und Analysen von Hedge-Fund-Managern für den Markt

Der fünfte Absatz präsentiert die Meinungen und Analysen von Hedge-Fund-Managern wie David Einhorn und Stanley Druckenmiller. Einhorn hat seine Positionen in Green Brick Partners und anderen Unternehmen verringert, während Druckenmiller seine Positionen in Coupang und anderen Technologieunternehmen reduziert hat. Es wird auch auf die langfristigen Erfolge von Tabakunternehmen hingewiesen, die trotz der Unsicherheiten für die Zukunft als investitionswürdig angesehen werden. Zudem wird auf die schlechte Vorhersageleistung von Mike Wilson von Morgan Stanley eingegangen, der wieder eine Marktvorhersung abgegeben hat, obwohl er kürzlich davor gewarnt wurde, keine weiteren Vorhersagen zu machen.

25:05

🌍 Globale Makroökonomie, geopolitische Spannungen und Rohstoffe

Der letzte Absatz des Skripts behandelt die globale Makroökonomie, geopolitischen Spannungen und Einflüsse auf Rohstoffe. Es wird auf die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren wie dem Arbeitsmarktbericht und den Fed-Sitzungen eingegangen, die die Zentralbankpolitik beeinflussen könnten. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen von Cyberangriffen auf den Iran und die möglichen geopolitischen Auswirkungen auf den Ölmarkt diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die Rolle von Gold als Schutz in Zeiten von Unsicherheit und die bevorstehenden Marktveranstaltungen und -berichte hingewiesen.

Keywords

💡Inflation

Inflation bedeutet die allgemeine Steigerung der Preise von Gütern und Dienstleistungen im Zeitverlauf. Im Video wird die Abkühlung der Inflation als positiver Faktor für den Aktienmarkt dargestellt, da eine abnehmende Inflation die Aussicht auf eine Verlangsamung der Zinserhöhungen durch die Föderalreserven erhöht, was für eine bessere Rendite der Aktienmarkt zu führen droht. Beispielsweise wird erwähnt, dass die neuesten Inflationsergebnisse besser als erwartet waren, mit einem 'Zwei-Handle' für den ersten Mal in dieser Zyklus.

💡Hedgefondsmanager

Hedgefondsmanager sind professionelle Investoren, die Hedgefonds verwalten, die oft spekulative und komplexe Anlagestrategien umsetzen. Im Video werden die jüngsten Handelsaktivitäten von bekannten Hedgefondsmanagern wie Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman und Stanley Druckenmiller diskutiert, die ihre Positionen in verschiedenen Aktien geändert haben, was auf ihre Ansichten über die zukünftigen Marktbedingungen hindeutet.

💡VIX-Index

Der VIX-Index, auch bekannt als der 'Volatility Index', misst die Marktvolatilität und wird oft als 'Furcht-Index' bezeichnet. Im Video wird die starke Abnahme des VIX-Index nach dem plötzlichen Verkaufsdruck erwähnt, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Investoren den Aktienmarkt als stabiler wahrnehmen. Die Diskussion um den VIX-Index ist im Zusammenhang mit der Möglichkeit eines 'Buy the dip' in der Volatilität, insbesondere durch die Verwendung von Bullish Call Spreads in VIX-Optionen, relevant.

💡S&P 500

Die S&P 500 ist ein wichtiger Aktienmarktindex, der die 500 größten, liquidesten Unternehmen im amerikanischen Aktienmarkt repräsentiert. Im Video wird die Performance der S&P 500 nach einem starken Verkaufsdruck diskutiert, wobei sie wieder über ihre 50-Tage-Volumengewichtete Durchschnittslinie (50-day VWAP) geschlossen hat, was auf eine Verbesserung des Marktstimmungsbarometers hindeutet.

💡Russell 2000

Der Russell 2000 ist ein Index, der die 2000 kleinsten Unternehmen im Russell 3000 Index umfasst und als Indikator für den kleinen Kapitalmarkt verwendet wird. Im Video wird der Russell 2000 als lagging behind in this bounce beschrieben, was bedeutet, dass er im Vergleich zu anderen Index wie dem S&P 500 langsamer wieder zu seinen vorherigen Höchstständen zurückkehrt.

💡Bullish Call Spread

Ein Bullish Call Spread ist eine Optionsstrategie, bei der ein Anleger einen im Geld (in-the-money) Call-Option kauft und einen aus dem Geld (out-of-the-money) Call-Option mit einer höheren Ausübung Preis verkauft. Im Video wird diese Strategie als eine Möglichkeit vorgestellt, um auf eine zukünftige Steigerung der Volatilität zu spekulieren, ohne dass die Griechen (Optionsparameter) negativ beeinflusst werden.

💡Währungsindex

Ein Währungsindex ist ein Maß für den Wert einer Währung im Vergleich zu einer Gruppe von Währungen. Im Video wird der Dollar-Index erwähnt, der den Wert des US-Dollars gegenüber einer Mischung von sechs anderen großen Währungen misst. Ein Rückgang des Dollar-Index kann als Zeichen für eine Abschwächung des US-Dollars und eine Stärkung anderer Währungen interpretiert werden.

💡Billionaire

Ein Billionaire ist jemand, der mehr als eine Milliarde Dollar an Vermögen besitzt. Im Video werden die Handelsentscheidungen von reichen Hedgefondsmanagern, die als Billionaires bekannt sind, wie Warren Buffett und Stanley Druckenmiller, analysiert, um Einblicke in ihre Investitionsphilosophie und ihre Prognosen für den Markt zu erhalten.

💡CPI-Daten

CPI steht für Consumer Price Index und ist ein wichtiges Wirtschaftsindikator, der die Veränderungen im Preisniveau von Verbraucherwaren und -dienstleistungen misst. Im Video wird die Veröffentlichung der CPI-Inflationsergebnisse als ein positives Signal für den Aktienmarkt betrachtet, da sie auf eine abnehmende Inflation hinweisen, was die Aussicht auf eine Verlangsamung der Zinserhöhungen durch die Föderalreserven erhöht.

💡Immigrationspolitik

Die Immigrationspolitik bezieht sich auf die Regierungsmaßnahmen und -richtlinien, die die Einwanderung in ein Land regeln. Im Video wird die Immigrationspolitik als Faktor diskutiert, der möglicherweise zur Inflation beigetragen hat, indem sie die Nachfrage nach Produkten und Dienstleistungen erhöht hat, während die Versorgungskapazität langsamer wuchs.

💡Technologieaktien

Technologieaktien sind Aktien von Unternehmen, die im Technologiesektor tätig sind. Im Video werden Technologieaktien und speziell die Aktien von Nvidia und AMD als Marktführer aufgeführt, die nach einem Rückgang wieder zu ihren 50-Tage-VWAP zurückgekehrt sind, was auf eine Verbesserung des Marktstimmungsbarometers für den Technologiesektor hindeutet.

Highlights

Stocks closed higher with inflation continuing to cool.

Latest trade from billionaire hedge fund managers.

Massive cyber attack on Iran affecting the central bank and ATMs.

S&P 500 recovering and trading above its 50-day volume weighted average.

Energy and consumer discretionary are the weakest sectors.

Market breadth shows mixed readings with 2/3 of stocks above their long-term moving average.

VIX Index crush indicating potential buy the dip opportunity in volatility.

Bullish call spread in VIX options as a preferred method to play volatility.

Options volume data showing a majority of call options being traded.

2-year yield and 10-year bond yields indicating a good sign for risk-on sentiment.

Bitcoin and gold holding ground while crude oil continued its pullback.

Nvidia and other market leaders showing strong performance.

Warren Buffett's latest moves including a new stake in Ulta Beauty and sale of Snowflake.

Historical data suggesting a potential for the stock market to be higher after the Sam rule has been triggered.

Q2 earning season showing better than average results with 79% of companies beating expectations.

Russell 2000 reaching records in the number of days without surpassing its prior high, indicating potential for future outperformance.

S&P annual performance versus the VIX's yearly high suggesting a 50/50 chance for market performance.

CPI printing a two handle for the first time, indicating potential for the Federal Reserve to start trimming rates.

Immigration influx and its impact on inflation and potential future deflation.

Notable billionaire hedge fund managers' latest moves filed in their form 13Fs.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson's market call and its potential implications.

Geopolitical tensions and their impact on commodities and gold.

Transcripts

coming up today stocks close higher with

inflation continuing to cool the latest

trade from billionaire hedge fund

managers a massive Cyber attack on Iran

and we just got an ominous signal for

the stock market you don't want to miss

this one guys let's

[Music]

go and welcome back click Capital

Community another day of higher highs

higher lows in S&P 500 as we continue to

grind back from that sharp sell-off

starting last week with Market color

turning very bullish across the board

red everywhere the bull want it to be

volatility bond yields oil the dollar

and inflation expectation all back to

trending down two weakest sectors out

there energy and consumer discretionary

now got the S&P 500 just back above its

50-day volume weighted average as is the

equal weight S&P Mega cap Tech composite

chart still not quite there as is the

NASDAQ index Dow Jones Industrial just

closed above its 50-day today midcaps

not quite there and lagging behind in

this bounce the Russell 2000 small caps

still a little bit below the 50-day and

just looking at Market structure in

terms of breadth we still have little

mixed readings good news is 2/3 of

stocks still above their long-term

moving average still not getting the

best readings on 52- WE highs versus 52e

lows and look at this Crush in the VIX

Index just truly impressive how hard it

can come down when it does crush 65 last

Monday here we are on the following

Wednesday down at a 16 handle and I'd

think around these levels and even lower

could be potentially offering bit of a

buy the dip opportunity in volatility

different ways to play it my prefer way

is with a bullish call spread in vix

options where you go long and in the

money call option and sell and out of

the money call option you kind of

neutralize the Greeks and even create

positive Theta on the trade that's one

way to do it cuz I can also see the

price of out of- the money put options

coming down and the put call ratio Dro

in as well and I can also see that in

options volume data today now getting

back to majority call options being

traded 58% calls versus 42% puts and

since most of the options Market is

trading near dated options 57% of the

expire in 5 days or less a lot of the

market just chases recent price action

so like I said anyone worried about any

further potential volatility the

election the Middle East the vix at 16

or even lower over the next couple of

days week or so may not be a bad time to

pick up a little Insurance a little

hedges for those that wish to do so one

thing's for sure it's a lot better to

buy insurance down here than it was last

Monday up here like many people were

doing jumping over each other to buy put

options you can see that in the

volatility of the volatility index

something you kind of want to watch for

the price of options as well it's a

great time early last week to sell puts

however coming up now may not be a bad

time to add a few puts if you're into

that sort of thing and stick with me

today cuz I've got a real interesting

one for you I'm going to cover inflation

then I'm going to show you the latest

moves from billionaire hedge fund

managers just had to file their second

quarter form 13 FS letting us know what

stocks they've bought and sold I think

you'll be interested to see some of the

moves they've made of late just looking

at the 2-year yield 396 had a little

Spike up after CPI inflation data came

in as expected today we just got a two

handle for the first time ever in this

cycle with a headline year-over-year

reading coming in a touch better than

expected 2.9% that is good news and as I

had been expecting as well there's a

10year 383 High old bonds creeping back

to yearly highs that's a good sign for

risk on siment and like I said last week

why didn't think it was a big riskof

structural change in the markets as the

dollar Index was trading down typically

if you see a real riskof move especially

with something like the Yang carry trade

apparently blowing up there'd be a

massive rush into Dollars we just didn't

see that so that's bullish for stocks

and there's the Yen stabilizing as well

coiling up and for sure we could get a

retest down like I said wouldn't be

surprised to see this candle retested

however be looking for support there we

should form a major bullish Divergence

if we have seen the worst of it with the

Yen carry trade Bitcoin still

consolidating here seems to be equal

forces of both bulls and bears keeping

the price in a bit of a gridlock gold

still holding ground and crude oil

continued its pullback today and we've

got Market leaders Nvidia reclaim cling

the 50-day vwap another nice move up and

some semis like ARM Holding started last

Monday $98 a share here we are $125 a

share and financials were quite strong

today birkshire Hathaway up 1.4% and

stick with me cuz I'll show you what

Warren Buffett's latest moves have been

as well first let me just share some

data research and news with you guys to

get you all updated here's a

visualization of the bounceback we've

had from last Monday low had a pretty

good bounce in Tech Nvidia up 30%

Bitcoin 20% meta 17% the Nick ey which

was leading all the fear has actually

reclaimed all those losses already along

with a lot of other big stocks having a

real sharp bounce back here one thing I

noticed recently as well there's an ETF

you may not have heard of the Invesco

S&P 500 top 50 owns the top 50 stocks

all of a sudden the last three sessions

especially after that Monday low it's

had a huge amount of volume come in

triple daily averages so it looks like a

lot of institutional money is still

betting on large cap growth and there's

the spread of the Russell 2000 versus

the S&P top 50 that t f xlg you can see

it's having quite a bit of a pullback

after we had a real blast off last month

so a bit of volatility in this small cap

rotation trade and so we're in the month

of August the last two August months we

had in 23 and 22 actually finished lower

September even worse the last four

septembers we actually finished lower on

the S&P 500 some of them pretty deep two

at 5% one at 99.6% so like I said if the

S&P doesn't go below 5,000 that's really

the best case scenario if we can make it

the election still holding a five handle

on the SP that would be the Market

showing a lot of resilience in an

otherwise seasonally weak period another

technical signal we just got S&P 500

surging over 45% in 4 days looking back

in history when it does that and it's

above its long-term moving average 84%

of the time it's higher a year later so

a bit of a momentum Burst when the

Market's already in uptrend is quite

often a bullish thing and all throughout

Financial media headlines a bit over a

week ago after the jobs report came in a

bit hot was a Sam rule being triggered

it's basically another way of measuring

unemployment trending up typically

associ iated with recessions around the

corner however just looking at history

US Stocks typically Trend down or go

sideways in the lead up to the

triggering of the S rule as they're kind

of pricing in a recession they see

what's happening however here in the red

line we've been trading a lot different

a lot more stronger going into the

triggering of the S Rule and in fact I

think a lot of people would be surprised

to know that on average the stock

market's higher 12 months later after

the S ru's been triggered of course we

can get those nasty recessions like we

did in 2008 in the red dotted line here

and in 2001 after the tech bubble

however there's even instances where the

stock market's finished 2530 even 40%

higher a year later after the Sam rule

has been triggered and just keep in mind

the two big forces that drive the stock

market that's the economy GDP growth

which is still tracking around 3% for

the year and corporate earning that's

what stocks correlate with the most over

the long term just getting to the back

end of Q2 earning season we got better

than average 79% of companies beating

Wall Street expectations on how much

money they made with the absolute

year-over-year earnings grow grow

expected to come in at 11.2% that's

above expectations as well so just

imagine that you've got a business and

your latest quarterly earnings are up

11% year-over-year that's pretty Healthy

Growth double digits and the sectors

leading that growth is Technology Energy

communication Services real estate and

Healthcare with staples Industrials and

materials coming in the weakest and

apart from Emerging Markets we got EUR

stocks Japanese stocks and American

stocks the earning sediment that's

analyst upgrading versus downgrading is

actually trending higher and you can see

in the dark blue line that's been

trending up the last year and a half as

well what also gets me excited and why I

love investing in small caps is not only

do they have way more potential for

appreciation just in general being

smaller lower priced companies but the

fact is we're starting to Reach Records

in the number of consecutive days the

Russell 2000 has not surpassed its prior

high now getting towards 700 days

looking back in history we've only seen

two peaks above that 0809 in the early

2000s and after that time in the early

2000s small caps went on to outperform

large caps for another 10 years and so

small caps will eventually break out

again and I'm looking forward to when

that eventually happen contrasting all

that bullish research and data is

looking at this scatter plot chart of

the S&P annual performance versus the

vixx's yearly high so that's the highest

print we get in the vix for the year and

then what was their annual return for

that year in the S&P there's a 0%

negative territory and positive

territory up here you can see here in

the green 2024 we just printed a vix

high of 65 last Monday and like I said

on that day I'd put it about 80% %

chance probably higher that that was the

high for the year so far we're tracking

around 12% performance or so looking

back in history only two other years we

saw a high vix 2020 2008 one of them was

really down one of them was moderately

up have a looking back at all vix yearly

High prints above 45 we can see 1 2 3 4

5 6 they either finished flat or down

somewhat and then 1 2 3 4 5 6 that

finished moderately or very high did

really well so it's almost a 50/50 when

we get a really high vix print for the

year bit more tilted on the bullish side

just by the average Returns versus the

bare returns and this is a real outlier

2008 the odds of that happening anytime

soon are very low depending on who you

listen to of course and What markets

love is cooling inflation especially

when we've still got economic growth got

CPI printing a two handle for the first

time in this cycle and like I've been

saying for months and months soon as we

got that two handle on CPI I think that

could be the green light for JP to go

ahead and start trimming rates next

month cuz at 2.9% every year change

that's the lowest print we've had since

2021 before inflation really took off

and with that little bit of a scare in

the jobs Market a couple of weeks ago

that's another reason for them to maybe

dial risk back another thing that could

help inflation is something that's

probably contributed a lot more to it

than what people realize a huge influx

of immigrant into the United States over

the last couple of years in the light

blue there's authorized immigrants that

came illegally in the dark blue you can

see there since early 2021 when Biden

reversed a lot of Trump's policies at

the border unauthorized entry into the

United States skyrocketed that's been

pulling back a bit and especially if we

see a change in the White House that

could drop a lot as well and so

basically immigration spiked a lot more

than the supply side for many Industries

products and services it's a lot more

elastic than Supply is and so Supply

which is really lagging Investments

infrastructure Logistics has increased

to handle all that however like we see

in markets we can see in economies a lot

of symmetry big swings around an average

and wouldn't it surprise a lot of people

if in the next year or two we started

looking like deflation started getting

CPI in a one handle pretty sure no one's

expecting that have a like Goldman Sachs

expects that could really go low in the

next year or two and that's likely to

help inflation in the states as well

looking at another leading indicator

done by nordia and their aggression

model shows us core CPI continuing to

nose dive down towards the low twos over

the following 7 months and I'd put at 70

80% chance J pal is going to cut next

month of course we'll get a taste of

that in Jackson Hole when they all meet

up next Thursday Friday in which I would

expect him to hint towards that as well

getting a bit of volatility in fed fund

Futures as we quite often do now back to

63% chance fed will cut 25 basis points

however still pricing in a lot of cuts

over the next year still think we'll be

down in the low threes by next July and

we live in a synchronized world how

we're getting a few checkered reading on

CPI inflation the trend versus the prior

reading there's the states coming in

lower how we're still getting a number

of higher readings as well I wouldn't

say inflation's completely been put to

bed it's definitely trending in the

right direction but of course there's

always the risk of resurgence inflation

quite often looks like a S Wave up and

down up and down comes in waves spikes

Dives but for the here and now things

are looking pretty good okay as promised

at the start of this week I was going to

let you guys know the latest moves from

notable billionaire hedge fund managers

who've just filed their form 13 FS

they're required by the SEC any fund

that manages more than 100 million has

45 days at the end of each quarter to

file their form 13s with the SEC letting

them know what their trades have been

and what their positions are and so I'll

go over a few notable names I'll let you

know Stanley drer Miller at the end I'll

show you what moves he's made but first

we'll start off with the granddaddy of

investing Warren Buffett surprisingly

just started a new steak in Ulta beauty

and actually sold Snowflake and here's a

look at Mr Buffett's portfolio there's

that big trimmy did in apple chopped it

in half still owns 400 million shares

30% of his portfolio his current stock

portfolio is 280 billion he's always

operated burky Hathaway kind of like a

holding company and hedge fund he either

owns businesses completely outright or

he owns a share of them through publicly

traded security coming in number two

Bank of America 14% American Express 12%

Coca-Cola which he has a long-term

affinity for back when Buffett was a kid

he used to buy six packs of Coke cans

from Believe It or Not Charlie M's

father's store back in Omaha Nebraska

and reell them he bought his first stock

at 11 years old famously said he was

messing around for 10 years and since

then has been investing for almost 85

years sold shares and Coke for about 50

years and I'm pretty sure he'll never

ever sell them either coming to number

five Chevron oxy and some of his other

longtime fa

he still got in there he added big time

to sirius 262 and there's his new buy

alter and another small position in hio

but we don't know if that's done by his

two protes Ted and Todd or by Buffett

himself but overall as we know he was a

net seller in the quarter with almost as

much cash and short-term T bills and the

like that he does have in stock no doubt

he probably doesn't like the valuation

of a lot of stocks out there however he

could also be preparing for another

signature purchase maybe the signature

purchase of his career before he likely

retired in the next year two moving on

to the always colorful Bill Amman of

Persian Square Capital interesting to

note he started a new position in Nike

just a small one 2.2% of his portfolio

he also did a bit of trimming as well

top position still Hilton Chipotle

restaurant Brands and alphabet Charlie M

is pro toet and the only other money

manager that Charlie manga trusted with

his own money mang famously was an

extremist investor very concentrated

quite often only hold three four

positions most famously Burkshire

hathway Costco and a private partnership

with leelu himay Capital Management in

which he just reported one trade for the

quarter he bought ocidental petroleum

largest position still Bank of America

another prote of Charlie manga manich

PAB follows in the footsteps of Charlie

being a very concentrated High

conviction investor quite often focused

on deep value he added to his biggest

position Alpha metallurgical resources

Arch resources and Warrior met coal

interesting to note these are coal

mining companies pretty much been given

up on by the market they trade at very

deep discounts relative to their cash

flows he's obviously betting they'll

come back even if it is just a fair

value as Cole likely still has a few

more years left in it even more colorful

Michael Barry portrayed in the movie The

Big Short by Christian Bale made a few

moves in his portfolio for the second

quarter added to his largest position in

Alibaba bought Shift 4 Molina Healthcare

Hudson Pacific Properties a few other

small positions so along with ba and

jd.com you can see he's betting on

Chinese security another good hedge fund

manager with long-term track record

Daniel lob third Point larger position

still Amazon did reduce Microsoft meta

and alphabet but he bought apple and a

few other small positions here however

he runs a much more Diversified

portfolio as you can see David Einhorn

of green light Capital quite often see

in the financial media and all these

guys used to get so much more Spotlight

and attention in the financial media in

the mid- late 2000s when kind of hedge

funds peaked out around 2009 2010 a lot

of them are underperformed the S&P since

it's been very hard to keep up however

they still manag billions of dollars

David Einhorn largest position green

brick Partners 29% of his portfolio Head

and Shoulders above his other positions

he's also got some energy names also

interesting to note he reduced his

position in Gold still small part of his

portfolio and he bought pelaton which

has been beaten down for a long time now

and Capri and IAC just looking at his

larger position green brick Partners

Home Building Company coming out of

Texas it's actually a small cap 3

billion looks pretty good on my

fundamental indicators fair value as

well can't say the same for pelaton that

looks like it's been Beat to Death he's

obviously betting on a bit of a

turnaround situation here 1 billion

market cap anyone remember this back in

Co man how different it was back then

traded up to $170 a share wealthy

consumers stuck at home buying a

treadmill with an iPad attached to it

everyone thought it was the future how

often we see this in markets things

change $170 a share now at $280 another

great hedge fund manager with the

longterm track record of outperforming

David teer significantly trimming his

exposure to Mega cap Tech largest

position still alib babba like Michael

bar also owns pindur Duo I sharees China

large cap ETF Buu and jd.com he's

obviously betting on Chinese Securities

as well in which he increased his

position in fxi and kweb and jd.com and

the fundamentals are pretty good on

Chinese Securities especially looking at

valuations there's Alibaba jd.com my

indicators got it at 38% undervalued and

pendu Duo 45% David teer is bullish on

these stocks and finally one of the best

if not the best in hedge fund management

Stanley dra Miller in which he's quite

often known for doing a top down

strategy looking at the macro then

choosing his bets based on that instead

of bottom up analysis more like Buffett

just looks at companies he knows and

understands and can buy it a reasonable

valuation St driller decreased his

position at his largest holding coupang

increased in coherent NATA vistra

Seagate sold 64% of his shares in

Microsoft interesting new holding in

Philip Morris M America apartments and

also interesting to note he sold shares

in pal elto and 87% of his shares in

Nvidia it's now less than 1% of his

portfolio also interesting new holding

in palent and Adobe so there look at

Nvidia David teer Stanley draam Miller

significantly trimmed we are getting a

few mixed signals here in technicals

fundamentals are still trending up

valuation is not that bad 32% above fair

value Stanley Dr Miller has taken a

liking to Philip Morris kind of like

coal companies tobacco companies can

quite often trade at a discount as with

ESG investing a lot of big institutional

money is simply not allowed to touch

them and believe it or not alria group

another large tobacco company is

actually the all-time number one

performing stock ever in the stock

market and we can see that in this

article here from Investopedia list of

the best performing stocks of the past

Century recent study from Arizona State

University analyzed the price history of

more than 29,000 US stocks that traded

between 1925 and 2023 some of the best

performing stocks Abott Laboratories

Johnson and Johnson fisa General

Dynamics Boeing northrope Grumman Koke

Pepsi Hershey H the King was alria 265

million per return in less than 100

years no other asset comes close to that

even Dow Jones Industrial which is Head

and Shoulders above bonds gold

everything else to 24,000 and we've only

got data and trading View alria group

going back to 1968 however just looking

at the logarithmic chart here split

adjusted started at 11 C here we are at

$51 not including all the dividends and

if you reinvested all those dividends

that's how you create a compounding

machine however I'd say the future is a

bit more uncertain when it comes to

tobacco and nicotine products and so

You' need a bit of margin of safety to

account for that in my opinion however

just on principles I wouldn't invest in

tobacco stocks either okay to the title

of this video the ominous signal we just

got for the stock market and I hate to

Hate on a guy but he's making another

Market call again after he said he

wouldn't and he's had a pretty shocking

track record these last few years that's

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson who just

came out and said he doesn't see a major

stock market collapse despite the recent

sell-off and that just made me cringe

when I saw that and I'll show you why in

March last year he came out and said

sell any bounce on this government

intervention the next leg of the bare

Market has begun March 13 2023 and that

was right there where he pretty much

nailed the low when he said to sell any

bounce March 2013 S&P 500 was at 3900

then in May last year he said don't be

foed into thinking this year's stock

rally is the start of a new bull market

May 23 last year and there we are there

May 23 said it's not a new bull market

4100 on S&P then he comes out on July 26

and admits he was wrong about a Plunge

in US Stocks as the market was clearly

rallying up and there's July 26

where he admitted he was wrong and

started to turn bullish again Believe It

or Not Market made a high the next day

pulled back for another couple of months

until he made that low in late October

last year then at that period on October

31 he came out and warned investors not

to get their hopes up for a Santa Claus

rally and again he almost nailed the Low

by 2 Days by trying to warn investors to

stay out of the market of course we went

on for an epic Santa Claus rally into

2024 and we've continued to Rally up

since then he CED so much Flack for all

of this got demoted from Morgan Stanley

said he's done making calls on S&P 500

and now he's just coming out and said he

sees few signs of a bare Market doesn't

think they're going to plunge and as a

bull I wish he would just shut his mouth

he's really jinxing us here so hopefully

he's not wrong for the 10th time in 3

years as a broken clock is right twice a

day right hopefully that's one of those

times just moving on to the global macro

geopolitics and commodity didn't get a

huge move at a CPI today I think the

market was kind of already expecting it

B's hanging around the same levels I

think what we'll really be looking look

forward to is the jobs report first

Friday in September fed will get a look

at that before it meets on the 18th and

I'd say that will really cement their

view if that would have come in at 43 44

so they're very likely to cut maybe even

if we get a nice Improvement down to 42

they could still cut as well just

looking at Market implied probability of

a recession very low that we're

currently in a recession already like a

few Financial channels we'll try to have

you believe the Market's actually given

that about a 6% chance that we're

already in a recession however the

probability of recession starting in the

next year they've got it 41% that's

really skewed by the 12mth Ford implied

change in the FED funds rate as I just

showed you as pricing in a huge amount

of cuts pricing in a big recession over

the next year however you quite often

find fed fund Futures Ford pricing curve

can get quite a bit ahead of itself and

is quite often wrong looking at other

indications of the probability of a

recession MBS spreads high yield spreads

cyclical versus defensives 10e 2year and

not showing on here they're all giv a

lad to moderate or very low like high

bonds given a really low chance we're

going to see a recession and especially

the stock market doesn't look to be

pricing in a recession and like I said

don't place too much weight on that fed

fund Futures curve as it's almost always

wrong about what the FED will do in the

future quite sensitive and the fact is

it's very hard to predict what interest

rates will do in the near-term future

even though it seems like it's not don't

be fooled it is challenging and why a

lot of big investors Warren Buffett

included a shine away from long-term US

government bonds keeping pretty much all

of his liquidity in short short dated

tea bills it's cuz the exploding US

Government debt coming into the global

financial crisis 2008 was below 10

trillion and that 15 years is more than

tripled we're now sitting above 35

trillion and that's accelerated since

2020 as well the amount and pace of

current US federal government spending

is just simply unsustainable something

will have to change moving on to

Commodities got oil pulling back still

on edge with Iran and Israel do have

some soft signs of demand and demand

forecast going forward global economy

he's kind of in a flux got a bunch of

central banks cutting getting some mixed

data especially from China could really

go either way here and that could be

potentially affected in the coming days

with how Iran responds to Israel as

theyve vowed severe punishment for the

assassination of hamus political leader

and we've just got news that there's a

massive Cyber attack on the Central Bank

of Iran apparently ATMs around the

country are shut down computer systems

of the banks were paralyzed and this

level of attack is likely State done

probably by Israel maybe with the help

of the West maybe trying to stir the pot

and tip Iran into giving a response

maybe Israel wants to use this

opportunity to shut them down as they're

said to be on the cusp of developing a

nuclear weapon which poses a real risk

to Israel as Iran's expressed publicly

for years now they wish to wipe Israel

off the map however Israel is not going

anywhere there's only 16 million Jews in

the world Israel is their only home

state they're surrounded by 28 Arab

countries over half a billion Arabs and

even the Quran acknowledges Jews were in

Israel thousands of years ago that to

have come from some somewhere right so

they see Iran as an existential threat

and they have the capability to deal

with that like it looks like they're

already starting to do and we can see a

similar situation in Taiwan and the

years ahead we already got America

delivering Advanced artillery rocket

systems to Taiwan potentially looking to

deter a Chinese Invasion or respond to a

Chinese Invasion when that happens so

like I said elevated geopolitical

tensions is not going anywhere it's

luckily to remain for years ahead and

that should give a Tailwind to gold

which has been trading firm all year we

start it off just above $2,000 an ounce

and here we are we're already up 20% of

the Year outperforming S&P 500 and

that's pretty much a wrap for today guys

we got retail sales coming out tomorrow

few more earnings consumer sediment on

Friday we've just done a pretty good

bounce back from last Monday's low could

be in for a period of consolidation

especially going to Jackson Hole next

Thursday Market might be a little

worried going into that may see a little

bit of riskof and markets always trading

waves so we've had a pretty good upwave

here say a little down wve is just

around the corner and like I said I

really didn't like what heard from Mike

Wilson today that makes me want to buy

some portfolio insurance which luckily

looks to be getting Cheaper by the day

as well I'd be really surprised to see

the vix trade below 15 and if it did I'd

be inclined to take advantage of that

thanks very much for sticking with click

capital and I'll see you again tomorrow

night cheers