Janet Yellen on GDP Report, Bond Yields, China
Summary
TLDRYellen discusses the current economic outlook, arguing the data shows the US is not in recession despite high inflation. She cites strong GDP growth, job creation, and consumer spending as positives but recognizes Americans feel anxious about the economy. Yellen outlines administration policies aimed at boosting inclusive growth through infrastructure, R&D spending, and investments in places left behind. On global issues, she calls for focus on human impacts of Middle East violence and says supply chain 'friend-shoring' can balance security with globalization's benefits. Despite political divides, Yellen expresses confidence policymakers are advancing sound reforms.
Takeaways
- 😊 Yellen sees signs of a potential soft landing for the US economy with solid growth, low unemployment, and declining inflation.
- 📈 She believes there is a path to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, contrary to past recession predictions.
- 😕 While personal finances seem good, Yellen notes Americans feel more pessimistic about the overall US economy after a tough few years.
- 👷♂️ She highlights new investments and job opportunities aimed at helping communities that have seen decades of economic decline.
- 📉 On rising yields, Yellen sees it reflecting economic resilience and rates staying higher for longer rather than deficit concerns.
- ❤️ On Israel-Hamas, she stresses the human suffering and containing the conflict over economic impact for now.
- 🔒 Yellen affirms no Iranian oil proceeds have been released from frozen accounts for humanitarian needs.
- 🌍 On China relations, she supports competition in some areas but also mutually beneficial trade and working together on shared global issues.
- 🏭 Her 'modern supply-side economics' policy aims to sustainably increase US productive capacity and equitable growth.
- 😊 Despite political divides, Yellen sees competent professionals dedicated to sound policymaking across government.
Q & A
What was the GDP growth rate in Q3 that was discussed?
-The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.9%, which was described as a robust pace.
Does Secretary Yellen think the US has avoided a recession?
-Secretary Yellen believes there is now a path to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding a recession. She sees signs of a potential soft landing for the economy.
Why does Secretary Yellen think consumer sentiment on the economy is poor despite personal finances being good?
-She believes Americans have faced many difficulties recently with the pandemic, lockdowns, and inflation. Also, many have seen stagnant incomes and lost jobs over decades, so there is pessimism on if that will improve.
What is driving the rise in Treasury yields according to Secretary Yellen?
-She believes higher yields largely reflect resilience in the economy - that growth remains strong suggesting rates will stay high, rather than concerns about the deficit.
How concerned is Secretary Yellen about the level of real net interest costs?
-She says fiscal sustainability is critical. If rates stay high more deficit reduction is needed to keep real net interest costs well below 2% of GDP.
What are the next steps to restrict financing to Hamas?
-Secretary Yellen would not comment on specifics, but said further sanctions are being considered after recently added sanctions, and her team is engaging allies on joint sanctions.
What is the concept of 'friend-shoring' that Secretary Yellen discusses?
-It involves diversifying and reassuring supply chains to reduce over-reliance on certain countries, while still maintaining benefits of global trade with trusted partners.
How does Secretary Yellen describe the economic strategy towards China?
-She outlines an approach of risk diversification in some areas, protecting national security interests, while still promoting healthy competition and mutually beneficial trade.
How does Secretary Yellen's 'modern supply-side economics' differ from past Republican approaches?
-She sees it as investing in areas like infrastructure, R&D, and education to drive equitable growth, rather than tax cuts for the wealthy that have not created broad prosperity.
Does Secretary Yellen think there's still room for apolitical technocrats in policymaking?
-Yes, she believes much progress is still made by competent civil servants and professionals, citing examples like implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act that rely on non-partisan expertise.
Outlines
📈 Robust Economic Growth in Q3
The paragraph discusses the strong economic growth in the third quarter, with a 4.9% GDP growth rate. It talks about whether this growth rate is sustainable and avoids a recession given still high inflation. Yellen believes there is a path to reduce inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding a recession.
🏭 Investments Creating Economic Opportunities
The paragraph discusses how the Biden administration is investing in infrastructure, R&D, and clean energy that is creating economic opportunities and jobs, especially for lower income communities. Yellen believes this will lead to broader shared prosperity compared to past 'trickle down' approaches.
📉 Fiscal Sustainability and Deficit Reduction
The paragraph talks about the importance of fiscal sustainability and deficit reduction. It mentions measures taken already for deficit reduction and that more may be needed if interest rates stay high. The goal is to keep the deficit manageable and real net interest costs below 2% of GDP.
😢 Human Suffering the Priority in Israel-Hamas War
The paragraph discusses the Israel-Hamas war and the human suffering as the main concern. It talks about efforts to restrict financing to Hamas through sanctions. The economic consequences so far have been limited but they are monitoring risks if the conflict expands regionally.
❌ No Access by Iran to Blocked Funds
The paragraph states that Iran has not accessed any of the $6 billion in oil proceeds assets blocked by the US Treasury in a Korean bank account that can only be used for humanitarian purposes.
🌍 Resilient Global Supply Chains, Not Decoupling from China
The paragraph discusses the strategy of resilient global supply chains through diversification, not decoupling from China - maintaining competition and mutually beneficial trade while addressing national security concerns. Efforts are underway to deepen economic ties with China and other nations.
🏛 Bipartisan Policy Progress Despite Dysfunction
The paragraph states that despite political dysfunction, there has been meaningful bipartisan legislation passed under Biden-Harris. Yellen believes there is still plenty of scope for competent professionals dedicated to good policymaking to serve in government and make a difference.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Economic growth
💡Inflation
💡Recession
💡Labor market
💡Consumer spending
💡Infrastructure
💡Clean energy
💡Interest rates
💡Fiscal policy
💡Global economy
Highlights
GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3 shows a robust economy, but not expecting that pace to continue
See solid economic growth, low unemployment, increased labor participation - no signs of recession
Investing in America through infrastructure, R&D spending - opportunities for those lacking college education
Higher yields reflect global phenomenon and resilience of US economy - interest rates likely higher for longer
Fiscal sustainability is critical - Biden committed to show it through deficit reduction measures
Focus on Middle East is the human tragedy unfolding - monitoring economic consequences carefully
Taken many steps to sanction and reduce financing to Hamas - looking at further opportunities
Supply chain security realizing over-dependence on countries like China - need to diversify
Economic strategy with China - healthy competition, mutually beneficial trade and investment
Modern supply-side economics aims for equitable growth benefiting all Americans over long term
$600B+ new investments occurring in hurting parts of country - creating opportunities
Biden-Harris succeeded in bipartisan meaningful legislation despite difficult politics
IRS resources to serve taxpayers, collect estimated $7.7T in unpaid taxes over 10 years
Scope for good policy with competent, dedicated civil service despite political dysfunction
Hope we're in process of implementing good policy for US despite some apparent dysfunction
Transcripts
I think we'll start off with the
economic data that came out this morning
third quarter GDP showing a robust
4.9% growth rate Pace in the third
quarter when you look at those figures
do you think we've likely avoided a
recession or do you think it's too good
to be true because inflation is still so
high well it's a good strong number and
it shows an economy that's doing very
well um let's remember it is just one
quarters number and I'm not expecting
growth at that pace to continue but we
do have good solid growth um you know
probably the year will come in close to
two and a half I wouldn't be surprised
if we see that we have solid job
creation a low unemployment rate um
increased engagement in the labor force
labor force participation is strong more
people want to work and um inflation's
coming down and you don't really see um
any sign of recession here I I have to
say I've been saying for a long time
that I believed there was a path to
bring inflation down in the context of a
strong labor market frankly it's only
it's about a year ago since I believe a
Bloomberg model predicted that by
October of 2023
now namely that you saw the odds of
recession at
100% I don't think we have that um you
know what we have looks like a soft
Landing with very good outcomes for the
US economy so I think there's a lot to
be uh pleased about and you you see good
strong consumer spending um consumers
still have substantial wealth it's up
substantially since the pandemic I I
think it's supporting good strong
spending and the econom is doing well
and I think um you know us growth is
making a contribution to Stronger Global
outcomes as well so you just pointed to
a number of things that are positive
about the US economy but we've done a
lot of reporting in recent months at
here at Bloomberg we sent reporters out
all across the country and what we're
hearing from people on the ground is
that when you ask them about their
personal finances they feel pretty good
for a lot of the reasons you just
mentioned and the labor market their
ability as consumers to spend but when
you ask them about the direction of the
US economy the sentiment is much more
downbeat so what can you do to close the
the gap on the positive side in terms of
how people feel about the US economy
especially as we head into an election
year so I think Americans have been
through a lot with the pandemic and a
lockdown for almost two years then a
period of high inflation
and um as you say they do seem to feel
good about their own personal
finances surveys of job satisfaction
suggest people feel good about their
work too we've rarely seen higher
numbers um on job satisfaction but they
seem very worried about the economy and
that things are not doing well um you
know the US economy has suffered from
structural problems from a very long
time for a very long time a significant
share of the population particularly
those who haven't had a college
education have really not seen
meaningful growth in their real income
and have seen a decline in job
opportunities over really approaching 50
years and I think what Americans need to
know is that the Biden Harris
Administration is really decisively
changing that we are investing in
America we have passed um three a
trifecta of
legislation that people will
increasingly see who've been um
suffering from a shortage of job
opportunities I think they're really
going to see things change first of all
we're spending an enormous amount to
repair America's infrastructure and
increasingly people are going to see um
their roads um that uh they get hung up
on every day it's hard to commute with
potholes everywhere that's going to be
fixed bridges are going to be improved
um airports people will are going to um
within the next several years um
virtually every American will have
access to good good inter internet so
improving digital economy and we've seen
an enormous um set of Investments
announced um in response largely to the
chips and semiconductors act um and to
the inflation reduction act in clean
energy and jobs are being created what
we what we see in this past year is that
a disproportionate um share of the jobs
that are being created are in
communities that have had less Economic
Opportunity um communities with below
average incomes and with a below average
share of people who have a college
education so this means that opportunity
will increasingly come to people who um
really haven't in a sense gotten a fair
Shake over the last 50 years as they've
seen jobs disappear and you know
President Biden and and um vice
president Harris and I really believe
that you ought to have access to a good
job even if you don't have a college
education and um increasingly I think
people will see that good opportunities
are being created um certainly the
president um is trying to go out and
explain to people what this longer term
medium term agenda he would say it's a
matter of uh growing the economy from
the bottom up and the middle out um what
we've had is too much of trying to grow
the economy through trickle down from
going with gains going to the top with a
hope that it'll trickle down and I think
we're beginning to see um the fruits of
these Investments begin beginning to pay
off so I think Americans have um a lot
to um look look forward to and are
beginning to see this uh in their daily
lives so we were just talking about
Americans perception of the economy but
another thing we follow closely here at
Bloomberg globally is investors
perception of the economy so I want to
ask you a little bit about the rise and
yields that we've seen we've seen yields
surging over the last few weeks the
10year treasury Rose above 5% earlier
this week what's your view on what is
driving that surgeon yields and how much
of it is connected to investors concerns
about the US deficit well I don't think
much of it is um connected to that this
is a global phenomenon in advanced
countries we're seeing yields go up um
in most advanced countries of the world
and largely I think it's a reflection of
the resilience that people are seeing in
the US economy that um we're not having
a recession that consumer spending and
demand continue to be strong the economy
um is continuing continuing to show
tremendous
robustness and that suggests that
interest rates are likely to stay higher
for longer and so part of the increase
in yields uh I think is simply a
reflection of the strength of the
economy the notion that interest rates
will be higher for longer now whether or
not that's really true if we look at
five or 10 years what are interest rates
likely to do honestly for a very long
time we have felt that um interest rates
over decades had been coming down real
interest rates and that there were deep
structural reasons for that in part
relating to demographics and those
underlying Trends they're still there
they're still in force so um I think
it's perfectly possible that we will
see longer term yields come down but
nobody really knows for sure but I I see
the higher yields as certainly
importantly a reflection of a stronger
economy so when you think about the
deficit you know I think one of your
preferred metrics for assessing you know
us fiscal stability is to look at the
net interest outlay is adjusted for
inflation um and right now I think said
that those levels seem good to you but
there are in real terms it's about 1% a
little bit under that so that's helpful
in terms of kind of the next figure I
was going to mention is several
economists out there are forecasting
that that figure by 2030 could be well
north of 2% so at that level would you
be alarmed in terms of the sustain
fiscal sustainability well let me just
say fiscal sustainability is really
critical and President Biden is
committed to putting forward a fiscal
plan that um shows fiscal
sustainability and uncertainty about
interest rates interest rates do
influence what the path of that real net
interest uh is going to be um there's a
bigger challenge if the interest rate
path stays higher um President Biden has
already supported deficit reduction
measures um in the P pack raising the
debt sealing um and other legislation in
the inflation reduction act there's uh a
trillion dollars of deficit reduction
and he proposed a budget that both
invests in um America continues to do
that and also has
um Revenue raising measures that um
would result in another $25 trillion uh
because of deficit reduction over the
next decade so yes we have to put
forward fiscal plans that will keep the
uh deficit manageable and keep this real
net interest cost um you know I would I
would say well below 2% so um the higher
the interest rate path um the more that
we need to do so I want to take a moment
secretary and turn to the global Outlook
um with the Israel Hamas War happening
in the Middle East I think there's a
concern by some that the war could
spread or expand to broader in the
region I know that that's not your base
case but if that was to happen could you
walk us through your risk scenario for
what that might mean to the global
economy so I I guess I have to say my
focus as I look now at what's happening
to the Middle East really is is the
tragedy the human tragedy that's taking
place what the Israelis have suffered
and of course we're worried about um
casualties in Gaza as Israel um you know
pursues its war against Hamas and so
it's really the human suffering that I
think should be our our focus and
countering uh
terrorism um we're monitoring The
Economic Consequences is
carefully um I so far I would say we've
not yet seen um much that has Global
consequences oil prices um are largely
flat um what could happen if the war
expands of course there could be more
meaningful consequences but I I think
it's premature to specul ulate against
about those and I think our focus should
be keeping this contained and not
spreading so on Hamas I know the
treasury Department has taken further
moves in the last few weeks to restrict
financing to Hamas and your under
secretary Brian Nelson is actually in
the Middle East right
now do you think there's room for
further restricting or limiting
financing to Hamas and if so can you
tell us what might be some of the next
steps so I can't comment on any
specifics concerning sanctions we have
not yet put in place but what I can say
is we have taken a large number of steps
just over the last year to put in place
sanctions to try to reduce the aen for
financing of Hamas and in the aftermath
of this attack act last week we put
additional sanctions in place um my
under secretary as you mentioned will be
in the Middle East and deputy secretary
Ado is leaving tonight for a trip to
Europe to also discuss working with our
allies on sanctions and we are certainly
looking at further um opportunities we
see to try to reduce this flow of
um financing to himas we're all over
this and um are likely to do more so one
final question on the Middle East before
we turn to other topics on Iran can you
help us understand um are the $6 billion
in Iranian oil proceed assets blocked by
the US Treasury from access by Iran
right now as they sit in a qari account
I guess all I can really tell you
is that not a penny of that money has
been touched um the Trump
Administration agreed to allow Iran to
sell oil and um the sales were largely
to Korea and the proceeds were held in a
Korean bank account and only permitted
to be used for humanitarian
purposes um without any direct funding
for going to Iran and those proceeds
were moved from Korea to uh to
qar um they still sit there they can
only be used for humanitarian purposes
they have not been used and I don't feel
comfortable saying more about diplomatic
um conversations that are taking place
but Iran has not touched those phones
well you just me mentioned diplomacy and
so much of your role as secretary has
been actually traveling around the world
we often think of the Treasury
Department is so domestic but so much of
what you've done is international and
you're seen as a liberal Economist
supportive of free trade I wondered your
thoughts on um How concerned are you
that some of the Biden policies may be
sealing a mistrust of globalization that
was ramped up in the Trump
Administration and whether that's
actually good for the US economy well I
think that's a great question um I've
talked about a concept I call
furing um so I think as a consequence
partly of the
pandemic and um partly Russia's invasion
of
Ukraine we've come to the
realization that our supply chains
America's Supply chains are not secure
and in some cases we're overly dependent
on countries like
China and that what we need to do is to
take steps as a country to reduce our
vulnerability and to diversify our
supply chains and to some extent that
involves reassuring things to the United
States and doing more here and certainly
in the area of clean energy the
inflation reduction act has incentives
to do more in the United States and the
desire there in part is to create good
jobs in um industries that are likely to
be drivers of future growth whether it's
semiconductors or clean energy but we
don't want to forgo Global the benefits
of
globalization and trade and so the idea
of French insuring is that we want to be
able to rely on a broader set of
countries to do trade and investment to
deepen our trade and investment
relationships with countries that we
feel are trustworthy that can be um
Reliable Parts of a global supply chain
that we take part in and part of what
I've been doing is traveling around the
world talking to countries about
developing our supply chain relations
and of course we're very close partners
with Europe with Canada Mexico uh other
countries with whom we have free trade
areas but many more countries we're
deepening our relationships with India
with Vietnam um so we want this to be
broad we understand that the
international division of labor with
countries taking advantage of the
benefits of comparative Advantage doing
what you're most um efficient at
relatively efficient at that this is a
great set of benefits both for the
United States and also countries that um
are given the opportunity to trade and
that contributes to their growth so we
don't want to forego that and um we do
want to maintain the benefits of
globalization but without the
vulnerability that comes from un due
Reliance on a few countries that may um
restrict trade for political or other
reasons so you mentioned broadening our
network of friends that we can have
Partnerships with but also China I know
you took a trip to China in B to Beijing
this summer you've been talking about
how our policy should really be around
drisking or diversifying rather than
decoupling but what do you think is the
current status of that do you think the
Chinese um have adopted that and feel
like they can trust us on that front or
do you think they still really think
that we're in a in a competition with
them first and foremost so I mean we've
articulated a strategy as you said it
involves drisking in some areas where
we're overly dependent on China and
clean energy is a a good
example
um we ALS so intend to focus on National
Security that's an area that we're not
willing to compromise on and so we have
we do have export controls we continue
to review them we have we're working on
a set of restrictions on outbound
investment to China we've discussed this
with them and put out a proposal that's
um in the public domain I think comments
just closed on it but our objective
there is to Target what we do as
narrowly as possible so that it really
focuses on National Security that it is
not an INT intention in that to harm the
prospects of Chinese Economic
Development and the welfare of the
Chinese people so we intend to have
healthy
competition and mutually beneficial
trade and investment with China in many
areas I've tried to make this clear and
then importantly the third prong of it
is we need to work together on on global
problems debt relief is one of those
problems climate change is another but
there are many examples so that's what
we're trying to do in terms of our
strategy you know President Biden and
president she met and Bali I guess it's
just over a year ago I was at that
meeting in more or less two over two
years almost no senior level contact had
taken place um during the pandemic
between China and the United States and
I think that was a dangerous situation
and especially when there are
disagreements it's actually important to
be able to discuss them to talk through
to see the other um country's point of
view and to discuss areas where you're
not in sync and it was recognized by
both sides that we needed to talk more
to um de deepen our discussions exchange
of
information and particularly in economic
areas macroeconomic performance
financial markets where our Behavior has
spillovers uh AC back and forth to one
another and also our decisions affect
the global Outlook as a whole and that's
what I tried to begin in my meetings
that I had in China and things have
continued very positively from there we
formed two working groups um they report
to me and my Chinese counterpart H
leang one concerns um economic matters
the other financial matters the working
groups met earlier this week both of
them met and and we now have a set of
very
constructive um and deepening
discussions about areas of mutual
concern and it's good to have um
contacts throughout our chain um it
levels below secretary uh staff level
discussions um and channels of
communication where when a problem
arises each side can pick up up the
phone and discuss it before it rises to
the level of a um real really serious
disagreement so I think this agenda is
working we certainly will continue to
deepen our uh economic relationship and
discussions and I'm feeling very good
about how things are going there turning
back to the US Secretary Yellen you've
described the Biden administration's
economic policies as um something you
referred to as modern supply side
economics and with those policies
they're aiming to increase the
productive capacity in the US that's
right that's a pretty good Big Goal so
can you talk to me a little bit about
how long do you think it's going to take
for some of those policies to become
entrenched enough that they stick and
have a real impact on people and the
reason I'm asking is because I'm looking
ahead to next year the elections coming
up what's at stake if the Democrats
don't retain the White House in terms of
the ability for some of those policies
to take hold so yes modern supply side
economics it's in part of growth
strategy and this is something um
Republicans and Democrats um I think
share a desire to see real wages and
incomes increase to see uh economic
welfare for the broad um set of
Americans to improve over time and an
economic growth or quote supply side
strategy this isn't a matter of demand
management it's a matter of improving
our economy's ability to produce goods
and surfaces over the medium to long
term we I think agree on that it's
widely accepted um with the Republican
strategy has been as I said largely a
trickle down strategy of giving tax
breaks or deregulation to the rich and
to corporations in the expectation or
hope that benefits would trickle down
more broadly I see that as a failed
strategy and um one that is really not
been successful at creating broad shared
prosperity and I see modern supply side
economics is having the same objective
but proceeding in a different way and
there many factors that are inputs into
growth uh besides private investment um
for too long we ignored infrastructure
so investing in America's infrastructure
has a return produces benefits
R&D um you know we're now really after
having uh decades in which us spending
on research and development certainly at
the federal level had fallen to very low
levels we were no longer one of the
leading countries in terms of um the
resources we devote to R&D that we've
stepped that up um substantially in the
legislation that's been passed and what
we want is also growth that's Equitable
so addressing inequality is are saying
for over 50 years essentially um the
median American really saw very little
growth little or no growth in their real
income we want to change that we want to
make sure that opportunities are created
especially for those who don't have a
college education and live in places you
know we've had so much growth on the
coasts but many parts of the country
geographies um that it seems progress is
passed by and so if if you look at the
legislation that's been passed
and the investment plans that have been
announced we've seen over $600 billion
in new Investments that have been
announced now it takes a while to get
those in place but look at where are
those Investments occurring they're
occurring in parts of the country that
have not seen that kind of investment
and um you know we're seeing electric
vehicle production and Battery
production in many part parts of the
country that have been sorely hurting
for good jobs and so it will take a
while for Americans to see the benefits
of this but um even now I think many
Americans can see that jobs good jobs
are being created um in manufacturing
which is um not done well over decades
in the United States so I I believe that
opportunities will be cre created and
people will be able to see that over
time in their daily lives no matter what
secretary you've been in public service
nearly five decades now holding
the it's a long time uh it's a lot of
working years as you as a labor
Economist um I I will say that you've
held the the top economic post you know
across the ca fed and now
treasury but you're also known as a
technocrat and a policy maker rather
than a political animal per se um when
you look at the divisiveness in
Washington we've just seen the past few
weeks even just on Capitol Hill are you
concerned that there's less and less
room for a person like you to come into
government in Washington and make a
notable difference at the highest levels
um if you're not as politically driven
as policy
driven um you know I I guess I see that
we have a government that is filled with
people who are
professional technically
proficient and dedicated to good policy
and we are trying to um put in place
good sound technically solid government
policy in almost everything we do and in
spite of the
difficult political environment that
we're in President Biden and vice
president Harris in the time they've
been in office have succeeded in a
bipartisan way in um having a great deal
of meaningful legislation passed um the
treasury Department I spend a good share
of my time working with um very capable
people in our tax policy Department
we're uh charged with writing all of the
rules that are governing uh the tax
incentives in the inflation reduction
act those that will are really creating
enormous opportunities in connection
with clean energy and we've gotten an
allocation of funds to um restore the
Internal Revenue Service to restore
their ability to both Serve American
customers who deserve to have somebody
answered the phone when you when you
call and um have been missing that for a
long time and also to actually collect
the taxes that um our tax code says
people ow and when you think about the
fact that over a tril over um 10 years
the tax Gap namely the quantity of tax
revenue that's due but not paid is
estimated at 77
trillion um you know we're in the
process of restoring all of that and the
people who are doing this are a largely
a civil service that is um tremendously
competent professional and dedicated to
um making the United States function
well so I think there's plenty of scope
um for good policy and I hope we're in
the process of doing it in spite of some
of the what seems like political
dysfunction in our country well
secretary Ellen thank you so much for
joining us today and giving us so much
of your time and sharing your insights
it's a true pleasure thank you so much
thanks for having
me thank you
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