Learn Where Traders are Positioned & Add an Extra Edge to Your Strategy - How to Read COT Charts

Summary

在这段视频中，Jason Shapiro 从 crowdedmarketreport.com 介绍了如何阅读和理解期货市场中的持仓报告（COT）图表。他解释了市场参与者分为商业对冲者、大投机者和小投机者三种类型，并强调了市场极端情况下投机者仓位的重要性。Shapiro 通过木材和铜的例子，展示了如何使用COT图表来发现交易机会，同时强调了市场确认的重要性以及风险管理在交易中的必要性。

Takeaways

• 📈 视频讲述了如何阅读和理解COT（持仓比率）图表，这对于那些新关注者来说可能是基础内容。
• 🏦 COT图表展示了期货市场中的三类参与者：商业对冲者、大投机者和小投机者，由CFTC分类。
• 📊 视频通过木材期货的例子，解释了在市场转折点如何使用COT图表来识别交易机会。
• 📉 作者强调，当大投机者极度看空时，可能是买入的好时机，但这需要市场确认，不能仅凭COT图表做交易决策。
• 📝 COT数据是免费的，可以从CFTC下载，但作者认为现有的图表可视化和功能性不足，因此创建了自己的图表。
• 💡 作者提到，COT图表可以帮助识别风险回报比高的交易，并帮助避免麻烦。
• 🔍 视频提到，COT图表不仅仅是短期的，还可以查看多年的历史数据，以更全面地评估市场极端情况。
• 🤔 作者提醒，没有完美的数据，COT图表也有局限性，需要结合市场确认和其他指标一起使用。
• 📊 视频还提到了其他商品如铜和NASDAQ的COT图表，展示了不同市场和不同时间的投机者持仓情况。
• 📉 NASDAQ的COT图表显示，当前投机者极度看空，与市场上涨趋势形成对比，这可能是一个值得关注的信号。
• 📈 作者最后强调，交易不仅仅是技术分析，还包括风险管理、止损设置等，没有万能的方法，需要综合考虑。

Q & A

什么是COT报告，它在交易中有什么作用？

COT报告，即持仓报告，由美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）发布，显示了期货市场中各类参与者的持仓情况。它帮助交易者了解市场结构，包括商业对冲者、大投机者和小投机者的持仓分布，从而分析市场情绪和可能的转折点。

COT报告中，红色、蓝色和黄色分别代表什么？

在COT报告中，红色代表商业对冲者的持仓，蓝色代表大投机者的持仓，黄色代表小投机者的持仓。

为什么商业对冲者和投机者的持仓加起来的净仓位可能是零？

因为期货市场中的每个多头仓位都有一个对应的空头仓位，所以当投机者持仓极度偏向空头时，商业对冲者则可能极度偏向多头，使得净仓位可能为零。

为什么说商业对冲者是'聪明钱'？

商业对冲者通常是基于实际的供需关系进行交易，比如农民为了对冲作物价格波动而进行期货交易。市场有时认为他们的交易行为能反映市场基本面，因此被称为'聪明钱'。

为什么说投机者进入市场是为了从对冲者那里赚取利润？

投机者利用市场的波动来获取利润，而对冲者通过期货市场来减少价格波动的风险。长期来看，对冲者可能因为对冲成本而亏损，投机者则试图通过预测市场走势来赚取这部分成本。

如何使用COT报告来判断市场转折点？

当大投机者的持仓达到极端水平时，比如极度做空，这可能预示着市场转折点的到来。交易者可以利用这一点来寻找买入机会，但需要结合市场确认信号，如基本面或技术指标的变化。

COT报告中的数据可以追溯到多久以前？

COT报告的数据可以根据需要追溯到不同的时间，比如一年、五年、十年甚至更久。这有助于交易者从不同时间尺度上分析市场行为。

为什么COT报告不能单独作为交易依据？

尽管COT报告提供了市场持仓的深入信息，但它不能单独作为交易依据，因为它不包含所有影响市场价格的因素。交易者需要结合其他市场信息和个人分析来做出交易决策。

如何结合COT报告和其他市场信息来提高交易效率？

交易者可以将COT报告中的持仓信息与其他市场分析工具结合使用，比如技术分析、基本面分析和宏观经济指标，以获得更全面的市场视角，从而提高交易决策的质量。

COT报告中的持仓数据如何帮助交易者管理风险？

通过了解市场持仓分布，交易者可以识别可能的风险区域，比如当大多数投机者都持有同一方向的仓位时，市场可能会出现剧烈波动。这有助于交易者设定合理的止损和风险管理策略。

视频中提到的木材期货市场的例子说明了什么？

视频中的木材期货市场例子说明了COT报告如何帮助交易者识别市场转折点。当大投机者极度做空时，市场出现了底部，随后价格大幅上涨，这验证了COT报告在分析市场情绪和寻找交易机会方面的价值。

为什么说交易不仅仅是科学，也是艺术？

交易不仅仅是基于数据和分析的科学，它也涉及到直觉、经验和市场感知的艺术性。交易者需要将定量分析与定性判断相结合，以适应市场的不断变化。

视频中提到的NASDAQ的例子说明了什么？

NASDAQ的例子说明了即使在市场持续上涨的情况下，投机者也可能极度做空。这种情况可能预示着市场情绪的极端化，为交易者提供了潜在的交易机会。

如何通过COT报告识别市场的过度投机行为？

通过观察COT报告中投机者的持仓水平，如果发现他们在某一种资产上极度偏向多头或空头，这可能表明市场存在过度投机行为，交易者可以利用这一点来寻找可能的逆向交易机会。

Outlines

00:00

📊 期货市场分析入门

Jason Shapiro 介绍了期货市场中的三种参与者：商业对冲者、大型投机者和小型投机者，以及他们如何根据CFTC的分类被划分。他解释了如何通过COT（持仓报告）图表来分析市场，并强调了这种分析方法对于新关注者的价值。Jason还提到了crowdedmarketreport.com提供的COT图表，并解释了这些图表的制作初衷和它们如何帮助用户更好地理解市场动态。

05:02

📈 利用COT图表识别市场转折点

Jason Shapiro 通过木材期货市场的例子，展示了如何使用COT图表来识别市场转折点。他指出，当大型投机者极度做空时，可能是买入的好时机。同时，他也强调了市场确认的重要性，即在COT图表显示极端情况后，还需要市场的实际走势来确认交易决策。此外，Jason讨论了COT图表的局限性，并分享了如何通过历史数据来评估当前市场状况的方法。

10:05

📉 COT图表的深入分析与风险管理

Jason Shapiro 进一步深入分析了COT图表，通过铜和纳斯达克指数的例子，说明了如何将COT数据与历史数据进行比较，以及如何确定投机者的净仓位。他强调了在交易中风险管理和市场确认的重要性，并指出没有任何分析工具是完美无缺的。Jason还分享了他对COT报告的个人使用方法，以及如何结合其他市场信息来做出交易决策。

Keywords

💡COT图表

COT图表，即持仓量报告，是期货市场中的一种分析工具，显示了不同交易者群体的持仓情况。在视频中，COT图表被用来分析市场参与者的行为，如商业对冲者和投机者，以及他们的持仓变化如何可能影响市场趋势。例如，视频提到了木材期货的COT图表，展示了大投机者极度做空的情况，这可能是市场转折点的信号。

💡期货市场

期货市场是一个金融交易市场，允许交易者买卖标准化的期货合约，这些合约代表了在未来某一日期交割某种商品或金融资产的协议。视频中提到，期货市场最初是为了商业对冲者，如农民，通过期货合约来对冲其商品价格风险而设立的。

💡商业对冲者

商业对冲者是指那些在期货市场上进行交易以对冲其商业风险的参与者，如拥有即将收获的农作物的农民。视频中指出，如果能够证明自己是商业对冲者，他们可以享受到更低的保证金率，因为他们有实物商品作为支撑。

💡投机者

投机者是指那些在期货市场上进行交易以获取利润的参与者，他们不是基于商业需求，而是基于对未来市场走势的预测。视频中提到，除了商业对冲者之外，其他所有市场参与者都被归类为投机者，进一步细分为大投机者和小投机者。

💡报告和非报告头寸

在期货市场中，如果交易者的头寸超过了一定数量，他们必须报告自己的头寸，这被称为报告头寸。未超过这一数量的头寸则被称为非报告头寸。视频中解释说，这是为了防止市场操纵，确保市场的透明度。

💡市场转折点

市场转折点是指市场价格趋势发生重大变化的时刻。视频中，演讲者使用COT图表来识别这些转折点，特别是当大投机者的净头寸达到极端水平时，这可能预示着市场即将反转。

💡风险回报

风险回报是交易中一个重要的概念，指的是交易潜在收益与潜在风险的比率。视频中强调，COT图表可以帮助交易者识别风险回报较好的交易机会，并避免在市场极端情况下进行不利的交易。

💡市场确认

市场确认是指市场的实际行为与交易者的预测或分析相一致的情况。视频中提到，即使COT图表显示了极端的投机者头寸，交易者也应该等待市场确认，如负面消息出现后市场没有下跌，这可能是一个买入信号。

💡趋势跟随

趋势跟随是一种交易策略，交易者根据市场趋势进行交易，通常是买入上涨趋势的市场，卖出下跌趋势的市场。视频中提到，投机者通过趋势跟随策略从对冲者那里获利，因为他们认为对冲是一种成本，而投机者可以捕捉这种成本。

💡NASDAQ

NASDAQ是美国的一个主要股票市场，也是视频中用来说明COT图表分析的一个例子。演讲者指出，根据COT图表，纳斯达克市场的投机者头寸达到了近年来的极端水平，这可能预示着市场的重大转折点。

💡铜

铜是一种广泛交易的工业金属，也是视频中用来展示COT图表分析的另一个例子。演讲者通过铜的COT图表展示了投机者头寸的变化，并讨论了这些变化如何与铜价的历史走势相比较。

Highlights

2023年1月28日，Jason Shapiro在crowdedmarketreport.com上讲解了如何阅读和理解COT（持仓比率）图表。

COT图表展示了期货市场中三类参与者：商业对冲者、大投机者和小投机者。

商业对冲者如农民，通过期货市场对冲其作物风险。

大投机者和小投机者是根据持仓量大小和是否需要报告来分类的。

COT数据可从CFTC免费下载，但Jason认为现有工具的可视化和功能不佳，因此创建了自己的图表。

COT图表中的红色代表商业持仓，蓝色代表大投机者持仓，黄色代表小投机者持仓。

Jason通过选择市场转折点来使用COT图表，结合市场定位和心理分析来发现交易机会。

COT图表可以帮助发现风险收益比较高的交易机会，并避免不利的交易。

市场极端情况下，投机者过度做空或做多，可能导致市场转向。

COT图表不是完美的，需要结合市场确认和其他指标来使用。

Jason展示了Lumber（木材）的COT图表和价格走势，说明如何利用COT图表进行交易。

COT图表可以显示不同年份的数据，帮助交易者从更长期的角度分析市场。

交易者应选择适合自己的回溯期来分析COT数据，并与其他指标结合使用。

Jason强调风险管理和止损的重要性，以及认识到没有任何交易策略总是有效。

COT图表在不同市场中的表现可能不同，如铜和NASDAQ的例子。

Jason提供了如何使用COT图表进行交易的详细解释，包括如何识别市场转折点和风险收益评估。

最后，Jason鼓励观众访问crowdedmarketreport.com，并提出问题或评论。

Transcripts

foreign

[Music]

[Applause]

hi today's Saturday January 28 2023 I am

Jason Shapiro or crowdedmarketreport.com

today I wanted to go through a little

bit about the cot charts and I know this

is going to be a little bit basic for

some of the people in particular the

people that have been non-crowded market

report because we talk about this a lot

how to read the charts and how to look

at it but we have gotten quite a few new

followers on both Twitter and YouTube in

the last few weeks and I've gotten a lot

of requests when I post a cot chart like

what is this how do I read it what am I

looking at so I'm going to put a video

together here and try to explain it and

I'll start by saying just like just

about nhr you can read it and look at it

any way that you want so I'm going to

take you through how I read and look at

it and hopefully that helps so let's

just dig right into it let's start with

the cot chart itself so what you have

here is you have three types of people

involved in the Futures Market as

classified by the C FTC and basically

what the reason it happens is that if

you are a legitimate commercial hedger

like let's say a farmer and you have

wheat growing and you want to hedge your

wheat and this was the whole purpose of

why Futures markets existed to begin

with but you want to head your wheat

then you are considered a commercial you

can prove that

and you can it's just a check mark right

on your uh if you open a Futures account

you are a commercial and what that gives

you is lower margin rates because

obviously you have the the physical to

back it up so you want to classify

yourself as a commercial all right so

everybody who's not a commercial

then

is a Speculator and they break those up

into large speculators and small

speculators or what they call reportable

and unreportable and that's because in

the Futures markets as a way to stop

people from allowing them to corner a

market or something if you go over a

certain amount position size you have to

report that position size and each

market is a little bit different for

what size that is but if you are big

like that you are a reportable

or what I call a large Speculator and

everybody else me you and the rest of

everybody is considered a non-reportable

or what we call a small Speculator so

those are the three classifications I

want this chart shows the red as you can

see down here is the commercial position

the blue is the large Speculator

position and the yellow is the small

Speculator position that's how the chart

lays out and just for the record

um and for a little bit of

self-promotion these are charts of the

CO2 that we put together in crowded

market report and the reason that we did

this quite frankly was I didn't really

find any over the internet that I that I

thought were any good and this data is

free from the cftc

um you download it you can download it

to tradestation or whatever but I just

didn't like any of the visuals or any of

the um ability to sort of use it and

change dates and all that that I could

find anywhere on the internet so we

created this and it comes as part of the

package of what you get when um you join

crowded market report I think there's

also an option where if you don't want

to be involved in a crowded market

report

there's for a very low annual price so

we will send you these these charts as

well

um but like I say there are free places

to go to find community administrators

reports I just never found them very

functional and I never found them very

visual very good visually so we created

these just as an aside anyway let's get

back to enough of the self-promotion so

I'm going to use Lumber here first as an

example because it's been a good trade

so

what I like to do I I like to pick Major

Market turning points and I use

positioning and psychology as what is

going to highlight that for me so when I

see

the large specs getting very short I'm

looking to buy and again as an aside the

net position here is zero because for

every longers are short so if you're

going to find speculators very short

then you're going to find commercials

very long right and people like to argue

what all that means right commercials

well that's the smart money because if

I'm a farmer and I'm buying a bunch of

wheat in the Futures Market

it means that my wheat crop is not doing

very well

so therefore I have to buy it in the

Futures Market the Hedge

um

yes there's also an argument that

hedgers over time hedging is a cost

right so you lose money of the hedger

which is why speculators come into the

market

to capture that money from hackers and I

think that that's I think both are true

because I think in the second one where

the hedgers it's a cost and they're

losing money and the speculators are

capturing that money that is called to

me Trend following that is why Trend

following makes money over time but I

find that market extremes Market turning

points these speculators have gotten way

too short

um and therefore they get to squeezed

the other way right

so here's the lumber chart and there's a

few important things here right and

let's just take the easy one okay here

is the first week of January or

speculators as you can see on this chart

or the most short that they've that

they've been right

well lo and behold

if we go to the chart of Lumber in the

first week of January Lumber bottomed

right and it's gone up

in those four weeks about 30 percent so

it was sort of a pretty massive trade

that's the easy way to look at this I

would call it right that's when it works

and and let me highlight right there the

community Traders are not perfect data

just like no data is perfect data right

nothing works all the time nothing is

the magic wand right what I like to

think and what I have found is that what

commitments of Trader does is it helps

me to highlight where good risk reward

trades are and it also helps me to stay

out of trouble if I were short Lumber

and I would have looked at this

all right and I'm a short Lumber because

whatever fundamental reason or technical

reason or whatever and I want to look at

this I'd be like you know what I don't

want to be short at the very least I

don't want to be sure to Humber here

okay because people are way too short

excuse the risk reward because as I

personally believe the discounting

mechanism in markets is participation so

if everybody's discounting in bed you

know Lumber's going down the risk reward

is not as good so anyway

now let's get into the bad things about

this sure I just showed you hey at the

low at the place where speculators were

most short that ended up being the

bottom and lumber great but we have the

advantage now of seeing that right you

could have said the same thing over here

right because we didn't we haven't seen

this yet right if you're waking up you

know in the middle of September right

this is September 6th you're saying oh

gee this is the most speculative I've

been short right so we go back to our

chart September 6th was here well there

was a decent low in Lumber there

but it did make new lows again

um early October

a nice move up here but again came back

down

and then made the new low there

not perfect data okay doesn't work all

the time but truthfully since October

you know being short Lumber has not been

great one way or the other so at the

very least it could have helped you get

out at the best you could have traded

these things and look

while it showed them very short here

by the time we got to October they had

gotten out of those shorts which was

what that move mop was and you're now

they're not short anymore so you're

getting out of that trade and then maybe

looking to put it on here but there's

what I'm trying to say is there's part

Art and Science to this and

I've said a million times c-o-t alone is

not reason enough to put on a trade okay

just because speculators are massively

short does not mean I'm going to get

long you have to look for marketing just

like any system to me or any process you

have to wait for Market confirmation

first

so I'm not going to get Lumber until I

see some bad news for lumber like bad

housing numbers or bad housing start

numbers or you know some kind of lumber

inventory numbers that are negative and

the market doesn't go down again and

that quite frankly is exactly what

happened on this day right here which

was the low in Lumber right this was on

January 6th and there was a housing

number that came out that was extremely

negative and lumber gapped down made in

a little closed up on the day that's

Market confirmation and that's Market

confirmation in a market that is showing

people massively short that's how I

trade okay and that's how I use the cot

now there's another thing about cot

we're looking at a chart here and it

goes back a year okay that's great and

it says oh well speculators are very

short looking at the past compared to

the past year

well here it is

going back all the way to 2015 and this

is one of the good things to think about

our charts is that you can go and you

can choose which years you want to show

on here right so I can go back all the

way back you know to 98 if I felt like

it I can also take different markets and

not just do them one at a time I can

look at sectors so I can take all of the

stock indices and put them into one

chart so

um I think that's where I charge it

pretty good but anyway so Lumber you can

see actually this was the shortest specs

have been going all the way back to 2015

so that's a pretty good thing but a lot

of times you get these charts that only

look back a year

and you find that well it looks good on

a year basis if you really look back

longer that may not be the case so how

do you get around that well again it's

part art and part science

um the classic way to get around it is

just like any other indicator out there

like let's say RSI I trade RSI okay what

RSI 14 day RSI 28 day RSI 100 day RSI I

trade moving averages 50-day moving

averages 100 day moving averages 200-day

moving areas there's what I call look

back period there so you have to do the

same thing with the cot it becomes an

oscillator of how long or short they are

but in that oscillator there has to be a

period that you're looking back do I

want to look back compared to a year

compared to two years compared to five

years compared to 10 years and sort of

the classic way to do that is you've

back test it all which can be very very

dangerous clearly that's sort of the art

part of it that you have to look at when

you do this and I have a look back

period that then gives me the levels of

how long or short people are

um and I I do put that in my report

every week what my look back periods are

but

there's no magic to my look back periods

either which is why the market

confirmation is as important if not more

important than just the cot alone okay

but that's how you read the CO2 charts

let me give you a couple other examples

randomly just to make a couple points

here's copper now if you look at Copper

here right so yes they are massively

short all through here right which is

when copper bottomed and now Copper's

gone up and now they're getting long it

looks like they're pretty getting pretty

long here right but if you go back to

this the longer term chart and you pick

copper you can see that are they really

long here compared to history I mean

there's been a number of times where

they're much longer look how much longer

they can get does that mean they're

going to get there no right but what I'm

saying is what looks long on the shorter

term chart is certainly nowhere near

where they possibly could get along in

Copper right and one would assume if

they're going to go from this long to

that long it's because copper is going

to go up because most people tend to be

Trend followers so that's the CO2 and I

think that

you know just as an interest the one

that has caused a lot of interest these

days

clearly is this bad boy right here which

is a NASDAQ this is the one-year chart

well this is the shortest that

speculators have been in one year and

the longest commercial has been and

that's very interesting considering what

the markets are doing they're actually

selling into this rally usually you find

them buying into the religions or either

getting stopped on those shorts or

they're getting squeezed or they're

getting bullish as the market starts to

go up

so just for the fun of it let's take a

look at uh

you know the long-term NASDAQ chart is a

long term so they were longer the

commercials were longer here

speculators were shorter here well you

know where that is that was September of

2020 which was the first pullback

after covet so covet hit bottom came

Market ran pulled back a little bit and

people got mega short there

and that's when the mount and that's

when the market kind of continued to

Rally but outside of that I don't see a

lot of periods here going back to 2015

or where speculators were a short NASDAQ

as they are now let's go back longer

just for the fun of it and this is kind

of how you can play with this stuff and

start to develop a feel for

what you think is good and what you

think is not good

and quite frankly just like anything out

there

sometimes it just doesn't work I mean

that's where the more important things

in trading come in such as risk

management you know stop losses sizing

and realizing that no matter what you do

not everything's going to work right

anyway this is them short they were

shorter that one time here and they

really haven't been shorter

going all the way back to it's funny

they were getting short in the early

2008

and they gave up into the summer and

then that's when everything crashed

right and then they got short

in 2010 here but there's not a lot of

places where they're as short as they

are now and I would argue that there's

not a lot of places where there are sure

as they are now in a market that's going

straight up which is what the NASDAQ has

been doing since this highlighted this

okay so anyway a little bit long-winded

but that's sort of how I look at the

commitments of Traders reports and

that's how I read the commitment to

Traders reports and that's how I use the

command subscribers reports and I think

that it can help a lot in your trading

in particular with risk reward which is

what it's all about so if there's any

questions on that please let me know

um or comments please let me know and uh

we hope to see you on

crowdedmarketreport.com and and I hope

everybody has a has a good week this

week thank you