The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

Summary

The speaker discusses the evolution of global power dynamics, moving from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the USSR to a unipolar world led by the US post-Soviet collapse. However, recent shifts have led to a more complex, leaderless world with emerging powers challenging the status quo. The speaker predicts a future with three distinct orders: a unipolar security order led by the US, a multipolar economic order with shared power, and a digital order controlled by tech companies. These orders will shape global interactions and present challenges, especially as technology firms wield increasing influence over society and governance.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The world has shifted from a bipolar to a unipolar and now to a more complex structure due to the decline of the Soviet Union and the rise of other powers.
• 🇺🇸 The United States was the sole superpower post-Soviet collapse, but it has become less willing to act as the world's policeman, architect of global trade, or cheerleader for global values.
• 🤔 The script suggests that the world is currently leaderless, with geopolitical tensions and conflicts driven by three main reasons: Russia's decline, China's integration into US-led institutions without adopting American values, and the feeling of being left behind by globalization in wealthy democracies.
• 💥 The current global security order is unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, capable of projecting military power worldwide.
• 🌟 The global economic order is multipolar, with the United States, China, and other nations like the European Union and India playing significant roles and influencing economic policies.
• 🛡️ The US uses its national security power to influence global economies, while China attempts to use its commercial position to gain diplomatic alignment.
• 🔍 Tensions exist between the security and economic orders, with countries like Japan, Europe, and India striving to prevent either from dominating the other.
• 🌐 A new digital order is emerging, driven by technology companies rather than governments, which have significant influence over security, communication, and information dissemination.
• 🛑 The power of technology companies is immense, with the ability to shape identities, promote or suppress information, and even influence political outcomes.
• 🔑 The future could see a technology cold war, a digital global order, or a techno-polar world, depending on how technology companies and governments interact and exert influence.
• ⚠️ The speaker raises concerns about the accountability of technology companies, their use of data, and the potential societal impacts of their business models and the technologies they develop.

Q & A

What was the world order like when the speaker was growing up?

The speaker grew up in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union, each setting rules on their respective sides of the world.

What is the current global security order like according to the script?

The current global security order is unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, able to project military power globally.

Why did the world become more complicated about 15 years ago?

The world became more complicated as the United States started to withdraw from its roles as the world's policeman, architect of global trade, and cheerleader for global values, while other countries gained more power and began to ignore or set new rules.

What are the three main reasons for the current geopolitical tensions and conflicts?

The three main reasons are: 1) Russia's decline and anger due to not being integrated into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions but maintaining its distinct identity, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies.

What is the current state of the global economic order?

The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among different countries. The United States and China are economically interdependent, and other countries like the European Union and India also play significant roles.

How does the speaker describe the emerging digital order?

The digital order is not run by governments but by technology companies. It is increasingly influential in shaping global affairs, with the power to affect security, communication, and even political processes.

What role did technology companies play in the Ukraine conflict?

Technology companies provided tools that allowed Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attacks and enabled Ukrainian leaders to communicate with their military, which was crucial for their defense.

What is the potential impact of technology companies on our identities according to the script?

Technology companies, through algorithms, increasingly determine our identities alongside nature and nurture, shaping how we perceive ourselves and the world around us.

What are the possible outcomes for the digital order as described in the script?

The digital order could lead to a technology cold war, a new form of digital globalization, or a techno-polar order where technology companies become the dominant global actors, potentially impacting freedom and opportunity.

How does the speaker describe the current role of the United States in exporting democracy?

The speaker notes that the United States has shifted from being the principal exporter of democracy to becoming the principal exporter of tools that can destroy democracy.

What questions does the speaker pose regarding the actions of technology companies?

The speaker questions whether technology companies will act accountably with new artificial intelligence, how they will handle the unprecedented amount of data they collect, and if they will continue with advertising models that drive hate and misinformation.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Shifting Global Power Dynamics

The speaker begins by posing the question of who currently runs the world, reflecting on the historical dominance of the US and the Soviet Union during the bipolar era. Transitioning to the unipolar world post-Soviet collapse, the narrative then delves into the complexities that emerged around 15 years ago with the US stepping back from its global leadership roles. The speaker identifies three key factors contributing to this shift: Russia's decline and resentment, China's integration yet divergence from Western expectations, and the widespread feeling of being left behind by globalization in Western democracies. These factors, according to the speaker, are the primary drivers of today's geopolitical tensions, leading to a leaderless world. The speaker suggests that the future world order will not be bipolar, unipolar, or even multipolar, but rather a complex interplay of different orders.

05:04

💼 The Interconnected Global Economic Order

This paragraph delves into the current state of the global economic order, highlighting the US as a robust economy but unable to dictate economic policies to other nations militarily. The US and China are described as economically interdependent, with trade relations at an all-time high, despite political tensions. The EU's significant common market and its rule-setting power, India's growing economic role, and Japan's continued relevance are also mentioned. The paragraph emphasizes the multipolar nature of the economic order and the tensions between economic and security interests, particularly as the US attempts to use its national security power to influence global economies, and China uses its commercial position to gain diplomatic alignment.

10:05

🌐 The Emergent Digital Order and Its Implications

The final paragraph introduces the concept of a digital order, distinct from traditional security and economic orders, and governed not by governments but by technology companies. The speaker illustrates the significant role these companies have played in supporting Ukraine during the war, providing tools to defend against cyber attacks and maintain communication. The paragraph discusses the influence of social media platforms on political discourse and the spread of disinformation, and how technology companies shape our identities and societal structures. The speaker raises concerns about the potential for a technology cold war, a digital global order, or a techno-polar world, where technology companies become the dominant global actors. The paragraph concludes with a call for accountability from these companies as they wield immense power over our futures.

Keywords

💡Bipolar World

A 'bipolar world' refers to a geopolitical scenario where two superpowers dominate global affairs, exerting significant influence over international relations and setting the rules for other nations. In the video, the speaker describes the world during the speaker's youth as being dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union, each controlling one side of the 'Wall', symbolizing the division during the Cold War era.

💡Unipolar World

A 'unipolar world' is characterized by a single superpower that dominates global affairs without a comparable rival. The script mentions the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving the United States as the sole superpower, exerting influence over global institutions and displaying raw power, shaping the world order during that time.

💡Global Security Order

The 'global security order' pertains to the arrangement of military power and alliances that determine the stability and security dynamics worldwide. The speaker explains that the current security order is unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most influential players, capable of projecting military power globally.

💡Economic Interdependence

'Economic interdependence' describes the situation where countries rely on each other for trade and economic stability. The script uses this term to describe the relationship between the US and China, highlighting that despite political tensions, their economies are deeply intertwined, influencing global economic policies and decisions.

💡Multipolar World

A 'multipolar world' is one where power is distributed among several nations, none of which has absolute dominance. The video script discusses the global economic order as being multipolar, with various countries, including the US, China, the European Union, and others, having significant influence and shaping economic policies.

💡Globalization

Globalization is the process of increased interconnectedness and interdependence of countries through trade, investment, and cultural exchange. The speaker mentions that many citizens in wealthy democracies felt 'left behind' by globalization, leading to a perception of illegitimate governments and contributing to geopolitical tensions.

💡Technology Companies

In the context of the video, 'technology companies' are entities that provide the infrastructure and tools shaping the digital landscape. They are highlighted as crucial in modern conflicts, such as providing cyber defense for Ukraine, and as having significant power in influencing public opinion and societal norms through their platforms.

💡Digital Order

The 'digital order' refers to the emerging global structure governed by digital technologies and the companies that create and control them. The script discusses the digital order as a separate and increasingly important domain that is not governed by traditional government structures but by tech companies, which have immense power over societal norms and global communication.

💡Algorithm

An 'algorithm' is a set of rules or processes used by computers to perform tasks. In the video, algorithms are depicted as a new factor determining human identities, alongside nature and nurture, through the way they curate and present information on social media and other digital platforms, thereby influencing perceptions and behaviors.

💡Techno-Polar Order

A 'techno-polar order' is a hypothetical scenario where technology companies become the dominant actors on the global stage, potentially surpassing the influence of nation-states. The script suggests this could occur if digital platforms become increasingly dominant and governments' capacities to govern are eroded, leading to a world where tech companies shape global policies and norms.

💡Disinformation

'Disinformation' refers to false information that is intentionally spread to deceive or mislead. The speaker in the video implicates social media platforms in the spread of disinformation and conspiracy theories, which can lead to societal unrest and undermine democratic processes, as exemplified by the riots in various countries mentioned.

Highlights

The world has shifted from a bipolar system dominated by the US and Soviet Union to a unipolar world with the US as the sole superpower, and now to a more complex, leaderless world.

Three key factors have contributed to the current geopolitical landscape: Russia's decline and anger at not being integrated into Western institutions, China's integration into US-led institutions without adopting American values, and the feeling of being left behind by globalization in wealthy democracies.

Over 90% of current geopolitical tensions and conflicts stem from these three factors.

The world is moving towards a future where there will not be a single global order but rather three distinct, overlapping orders.

The global security order remains unipolar, with the US and its allies as the most powerful players, able to project military power worldwide.

China's military capabilities are growing in Asia, causing concern among American allies in the region who become more dependent on the US for security.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to increased concern and dependence on the US and NATO among US allies in Europe.

Despite having nuclear weapons, the use of such weapons is still considered suicide, maintaining the unipolar security order for the foreseeable future.

The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among the US, China, the European Union, India, and Japan, among others.

US-China trade relations are at an all-time high, highlighting the economic interdependence between the two countries.

Tensions exist between the security and economic orders, as the US uses its military power to influence global economies, while China uses its commercial position to gain diplomatic alignment.

A third, digital order is emerging, driven not by governments but by technology companies, which play a crucial role in global security and communication.

Technology companies have provided Ukraine with the tools to defend against cyber attacks and maintain communication during the war.

The power of technology companies extends to shaping political discourse and influencing elections, as seen with social media's role in promoting disinformation and conspiracy theories.

Technology companies increasingly determine our identities through algorithms, in addition to nature and nurture.

The future may see a technology cold war, a digital global order, or a techno-polar order, depending on how technology companies align with governments and use their power.

The unprecedented power of technology companies raises questions about their accountability, especially as they release new artificial intelligence and collect vast amounts of data.

The current state of technology companies as the principal exporters of tools that destroy democracy is a concern that needs to be addressed.

Transcripts

I have a big question.

Which is, who runs the world?

It used to be an easy question to answer.

If you're over 45 like me,

you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants.

The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall,

the Soviets set the rules on the other.

And that was a bipolar world.

It's very simple.

If you're under 45,

you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed,

and that left the United States as the sole superpower,

dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power.

And that was a unipolar world.

And then about 15 years ago,

things got a little more complicated.

The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman

or the architect of global trade

or even the cheerleader for global values.

Other countries were becoming more powerful,

and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like,

sometimes even setting new rules themselves.

What happened?

Three things.

Number one,

Russia was not integrated into Western institutions.

A former great power now in very serious decline

and they are angry about it.

We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.

Number two,

China was integrated into US-led institutions

on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful,

they would become Americans.

Turns out, they're still Chinese.

(Laughter)

And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.

Number three,

tens of millions of citizens in the United States

and other wealthy democracies

felt left behind by globalization.

This has been ignored for decades.

But as a consequence,

they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate.

Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today,

driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict,

over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons.

And that's why today we live in a leaderless world.

But as we know,

that's not going to be with us for long.

So what comes next?

What kind of a world order might we expect

over the next ten years?

Some of what I might say I think will surprise you.

Because we're not going to have

a bipolar or a unipolar or even a multipolar world.

If we don't have one or two superpowers,

we don't have a single global order.

No, instead, we will have three different orders,

a little overlapping,

and the third will have immense importance for how we live,

what we think,

what we want,

and what we're prepared to do to get it.

But first things first.

Today, we have a global security order.

And as you see from the map,

the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it.

The US is the only country in the world

that can send its soldiers

and its sailors and its military equipment to every corner of that world.

No one else is close.

China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia,

though nowhere else.

Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that.

And as a consequence, they're becoming more dependent

on the United States for a security umbrella.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and dependent

on the United States and a US-led NATO.

The Russian military, of course, has been a greater global concern,

much less so today,

especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops

and all of that equipment

and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild.

Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons,

but thank God it is still suicide to use them.

And as a consequence,

our security order is a unipolar order

and it is likely to remain so for the next decade.

Now at the same time that there's a security order,

there's also a global economic order.

And here, power is shared.

The United States is still a very robust global economy.

But the US can't use its dominant position militarily

to tell other countries what to do economically.

The United States and China are enormously economically interdependent

and so they can't control each other.

You may be surprised to hear this,

but today US-China trade relations are actually at their highest level

in history.

Now, other countries in the world,

a lot of them want access to US military muscle,

but they also want access to the Chinese market,

soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world.

And you can't very well have a cold war

if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it.

Yes?

Yes.

So the European Union has the largest common market

and they set the rules.

And if you want to do profitable business there,

you listen to those rules.

India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage.

Japan still matters, too.

And over the next ten years,

there will be a rise and fall

of the relative capacities of these economies.

But the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order.

Now, between these two orders are tensions

because the United States will use its power in national security

to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it.

And we already see this starting to happen in semiconductors

and in critical minerals and maybe soon in TikTok.

The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position

to align more of the world diplomatically.

And Japan and Europe and India

and everyone else will do their damnedest

to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other.

And they will mostly succeed.

Now, so far I have spoken with you

about the two world orders we already see,

but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important.

And that is the digital order.

And the digital order is not run by governments

but by technology companies.

We all know how much military support

NATO countries have provided Ukraine

during the war.

But it's technology companies that provided the tools

allowing Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attack.

It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders

the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers on the front lines.

If it wasn't for those technology companies,

Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war.

And I don't believe President Zelensky would still be there today.

Technology companies determine whether Donald Trump is able,

in real time and without filter,

to speak with hundreds of millions of people

as he runs again for the presidency.

It's social media platforms

and their ability to promote disinformation

and conspiracy theory.

Without them, we do not have riots in the Capitol on January 6.

We do not have trucker riots in Ottawa.

We do not have a January 8 insurrection in Brazil.

Technology companies increasingly determine our identities.

When I was growing up, it's nature or nurture.

I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems

either come from how I was raised --

(Laughter)

Or some genetic failure.

(Laughter)

Could be both.

(Laughter)

But today,

our identities are determined by nature and nurture

and algorithm.

If you want to challenge the system,

you can't just question authority,

as we were all told when we were growing up.

Today, you have to question the algorithm,

and that is a staggering amount of power

in the hands of these technology companies.

What are they going to do with that power?

And that depends on who they want to be

when they grow up.

So if China and the United States work to exert much more power

over the digital world

and technology companies in those countries

align with those governments,

we will end up in a technology cold war.

And that means the digital order will be split in two.

If, on the other hand

technology companies persist with global business models,

and we retain competition between the digital and physical worlds,

we will have a new globalization, a digital global order.

Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant

and governments erode in their capacity to govern,

and we've already seen the beginning of this,

technology companies will become the dominant actors

on the global stage in every way

and we will have a techno-polar order.

And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity

or a world without freedom.

Now at this point in my speech,

I'm supposed to talk about the good news.

(Laughter)

But those of you that have heard this

know that that is not coming.

(Laughter)

There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.

I don't know if you know this,

there are over 100 people in the world today

with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus.

Honestly, I don't have answers,

but I have a few questions for the people that do.

Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 actors.

These technology titans are not just men worth 50 or 100 billion dollars or more.

They are increasingly the most powerful people on the planet

with influence over our futures.

And we need to know,

are they going to act accountably

as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence?

What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data

that they are collecting on us and our environment?

And the one that I think should concern us all right now the most:

Will they persist with these advertising models

driving so much revenues that are turning citizens into products

and driving hate and misinformation

and ripping apart our society?

(Applause)

When I was a student back in 1989,

and the Wall fell,

the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world.

Not always successfully.

Often hypocritically.

But number one, nonetheless.

Today, the United States has become the principal exporter of tools

that destroy democracy.

The technology leaders who create and control these tools,

are they OK with that?

Or are they going to do something about it?

We need to know.

Thank you.

(Cheers and applause)