How powerful is Iran really? | Mapped Out

Summary

The video script delves into Iran's geopolitical strategies, highlighting its use of proxy militias, drones, and its nuclear program to assert regional power despite internal fragility. It examines Iran's alliances, particularly with Russia and China, and its 'Axis of Resistance' against the US and Israel. The script also discusses the regime's challenges, including economic sanctions, declining popular support, and the impact of its nuclear ambitions on domestic stability.

Takeaways

• 🌏 Iran is perceived as a regional power with involvement in numerous conflicts and support for militia groups across the region.
• 💥 Despite projecting an image of strength externally, Iran's internal situation is described as fragile, with the regime maintaining power through various strategies.
• 🤝 Iran's geopolitical position is advantageous, being situated between the Middle East and Asia, with Russia to the north and major trade routes to the south.
• 🏝️ Iran feels isolated due to its Shia Muslim majority, surrounded by Sunni-majority countries, including its main rival, Saudi Arabia.
• 📢 Iran's regime, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is anti-Western and considers the US and Israel as its main enemies.
• 🛡 Iran uses proxy militias, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, to destabilize the region and conduct attacks, including on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
• 💣 Iran's support for militias extends to providing intelligence, drones, and missiles, which have significant impacts on global maritime security.
• 🚁 Iran's drone technology, developed in response to international sanctions, is exported to various countries and has been used in conflicts, including in Ukraine.
• 🗡 Iran possesses a large and diverse missile arsenal, which it has used in attacks against Israel, demonstrating its military capabilities.
• ⚔️ Iran's nuclear program is a significant aspect of its strategy, serving as a deterrent and a bargaining chip in international negotiations.
• 🏛️ The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a key component of Iran's military and plays a central role in the country's external and internal strategies.
• 📉 Iran faces domestic challenges, including declining popular support for the regime, economic issues due to sanctions, and widespread protests against the government.

Q & A

What is the primary concern of Iran's involvement in various conflicts?

Iran's involvement in conflicts is primarily a projection of power externally, while internally it is extremely fragile, aiming to maintain its grip on power and influence in the region.

How does Iran's geographical position contribute to its strategic advantages?

Iran is strategically located between the Middle East and the rest of Asia, with Russia to its north and major global trading routes to its south, providing a good setup for an oil-rich country aspiring to be a regional power.

Why does Iran feel insecure despite its strategic location?

Iran feels insecure due to its isolation in the region, lacking strong regional alliances, and being surrounded by countries with a Sunni majority, contrasting its Shia Muslim population.

Who is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what is his role in Iran?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, holding this position for the last 35 years and playing a central role in ruling the country.

What is the significance of Iran's support for proxy militias?

Iran's support for proxy militias allows it to destabilize the region and attack its perceived enemies, such as Israel, while keeping the conflict away from its own borders.

How have the Houthi rebels impacted global maritime security?

The Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have attacked and sunk commercial ships in the Red Sea, leading to increased insurance costs and ships avoiding the Red Sea, which impacts global maritime security and can affect the cost of goods globally.

What role do drones play in Iran's military strategy?

Drones are a significant part of Iran's military strategy due to their low cost, low-tech nature, and effectiveness. They are barely detectable by radar and can carry warheads, making them a valuable tool for both domestic and international operations.

How has Iran's drone technology impacted international relations, particularly in Europe?

The use of Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine has been sobering for European policymakers, making Iran relevant to a region beyond its traditional sphere of influence and highlighting the need to address the implications of such technology.

What is the purpose of Iran's nuclear program from the regime's perspective?

From the regime's perspective, Iran's nuclear program serves multiple purposes: it projects an image of power, acts as a deterrent against perceived threats from the West, and serves as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Western powers.

How has the 'Turn to the East' strategy affected Iran's international relations?

The 'Turn to the East' strategy has led to a more strategic relationship with China and Russia, deepening Iran's ties with these non-Western powers and potentially positioning Iran as part of a new world order where non-Western powers are on the rise.

What challenges does the Iranian regime face internally?

The Iranian regime faces challenges such as declining popular support, economic sanctions due to its nuclear program, and widespread protests sparked by issues like corruption, poverty, and a lack of freedom.

Outlines

00:00

🏖️ Geopolitical Positioning and Internal Fragility of Iran

The script discusses Iran's perceived power and its involvement in regional conflicts, including funding militias and direct attacks on Israel. It highlights the contrast between Iran's external projection of strength and its internal vulnerabilities. The country's strategic geographical position between the Middle East and Asia, with Russia to the north and major trade routes to the south, is contrasted with its feelings of isolation due to a lack of regional alliances and a predominantly Shia population surrounded by Sunni-majority nations. The rivalry with Saudi Arabia and the influence of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are underscored. The Iranian revolution's anti-Western sentiment and the current regime's rhetoric against the US and Israel are also covered, along with the use of proxy militias and disruptive tactics such as drones and the nuclear program.

05:03

🤝 Iran's Proxy Militias and Strategic Disruption

This paragraph delves into Iran's support of proxy militias, exemplified by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which have been responsible for attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea. The paragraph explains how Iran's provision of intelligence, drones, and missiles has enabled such groups to become significant destabilizing forces. The economic impact of these attacks, including increased insurance costs and rerouting of shipping, is also discussed. The paragraph further explores other militias supported by Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and their role in escalating conflicts with Israel. The narrative includes Iran's denial of direct involvement in specific attacks, yet its praise for Palestinian resistance, highlighting the regime's complex approach to maintaining influence and avoiding direct conflict.

10:03

🛰️ Iran's Military Arsenal and Nuclear Ambitions

The script examines Iran's military strategies, focusing on its drone technology and missile arsenal. Despite international sanctions, Iran has developed low-cost, low-tech drones that are effective and difficult to detect. The country's export of drones to various nations and their use by Russia in the war against Ukraine is noted. The paragraph also discusses Iran's missile launches towards Israel in 2024, marking the first direct attack and serving as a demonstration of power and determination. The ambiguity surrounding Iran's nuclear program is explored, with the country claiming peaceful intentions while the international community questions its true aims. The strategic value of the nuclear program as a deterrent and bargaining chip in negotiations with the West is highlighted.

🔄 Iran's International Relations and Domestic Challenges

This paragraph explores Iran's shifting international relations, particularly its 'Turn to the East' strategy, which involves strengthening ties with China and Russia. The role of China as a major buyer of Iranian oil and the strategic partnership with Russia are emphasized. Iran's participation in joint naval drills with Russia and China, and its recent joining of the BRICS economic bloc, indicate its vision for a new world order with declining US influence. However, the paragraph also notes that China and Russia maintain a cautious distance from Iran. Domestically, the regime faces declining popular support and widespread protests over issues such as corruption, poverty, and lack of freedom. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is identified as a key internal and external force supporting the regime's strategies. The paragraph concludes by questioning the sustainability of the regime's grip on power, given its complex international and domestic situation.

Keywords

💡Iran

Iran is a country in Western Asia known for its rich history and geopolitical significance. In the video, Iran is portrayed as a regional power with a complex relationship with its neighbors and the international community. It is involved in various conflicts and uses strategies such as proxy militias and a nuclear program to assert its influence and protect its interests.

💡Proxy militias

Proxy militias are armed groups that are supported and sometimes directed by another country to carry out actions on its behalf. In the context of the video, Iran is said to support proxy militias such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, using them to exert influence and destabilize the region while keeping conflict away from its own borders.

💡Nuclear program

A nuclear program refers to a country's development and maintenance of nuclear technology, which can be used for peaceful purposes such as energy production or for military purposes, including the creation of nuclear weapons. The video discusses Iran's nuclear program, suggesting that while it officially states the program is for research and energy, the international community is concerned about the potential development of nuclear weapons.

💡Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a branch of Iran's armed forces that was established after the Iranian Revolution in 1979. It operates parallel to the regular military and is known for its significant influence in Iran's military, political, and economic spheres. The video highlights the IRGC's role in Iran's strategies both domestically and internationally.

💡Drones

Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles, are aircraft without a human pilot aboard. They can be used for various purposes, including surveillance and carrying out attacks. The video mentions Iran's development and use of drones, which are low-cost and low-tech but effective, and their export to other countries, contributing to Iran's strategic influence.

💡Missiles

Missiles are self-propelled, guided weapons systems used to strike targets at a distance. In the video, Iran's missile arsenal is discussed as a part of its military capabilities, with the country and its proxies launching hundreds of missiles and drones towards Israel in 2024 as a demonstration of force.

💡Supreme Leader

In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the highest-ranking political and religious authority. The video refers to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has held this position for over 35 years, emphasizing his role in guiding the country's policies and strategies.

💡Strategic alliances

Strategic alliances are formal agreements between countries to cooperate on matters of mutual interest, often for security or economic purposes. The video notes Iran's strategic alliance with Russia and its position relative to major global trading routes, suggesting its potential as a regional power despite feeling insecure and isolated.

💡BRICS

BRICS is an acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The video mentions Iran's recent joining of BRICS, indicating its aspiration to be part of an economic bloc that offers an alternative to Western dominance and reflects Iran's vision for a new world order.

💡Deterrence

Deterrence in international relations is the theory and practice of preventing hostile actions by an enemy through the threat of retaliation. The video describes Iran's strategy as being based on deterrence, using its military capabilities and alliances to discourage aggression from perceived adversaries.

💡Internal fragility

Internal fragility refers to the vulnerability of a state due to factors such as economic instability, social unrest, or political dissent. The video suggests that despite projecting an image of power externally, Iran is internally fragile, with declining popular support and protests against the regime, which poses a challenge to its stability.

Highlights

Iran's projection of power externally while internally being fragile.

Strategies the Islamic Republic has mastered to maintain power.

Iran's geopolitical position between the Middle East and Asia with strategic allies and trading routes.

Iran's sense of insecurity and isolation due to lack of regional alliances.

Iran being the largest Shia Muslim country surrounded by Sunni majority neighbors.

Rivalry with Saudi Arabia for dominance in the Muslim world.

The role of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran.

Anti-Western sentiment rooted in the Iranian revolution and history of foreign meddling.

Use of proxy militias by Iran, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Impact of Houthi attacks on global maritime security and economic costs.

Support of various militias by Iran, including Hezbollah, as part of the 'Axis of Resistance'.

Iran's development and export of drones as a response to international sanctions.

International significance of Iran's drone use in the war in Ukraine.

Iran's missile arsenal and its use as a deterrent and bargaining chip.

Iran's nuclear program and its potential as a source of power and instability.

Shift in Iran's strategy with a 'Turn to the East', focusing on relationships with China and Russia.

Iran's participation in joint naval drills with Russia and China, signaling a new world order vision.

Reliance on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for internal and external strategies.

Decline in popular support for Iran's authoritarian regime and the impact of protests.

The regime's challenge to improve the economy under sanctions while maintaining the nuclear project.

Assessment of Iran's power and the effectiveness of its disruptive strategies.

Transcripts

Iran looks pretty powerful.

It’s somehow involved in a lot of conflicts.

The Iranian regime is funding militia groups across the region.

And even launched a direct attack on Israel –

something that used to be off-limits.

But how much of it is just for show?

It projects an image of power externally, whereas internally it

is extremely fragile.

Still Iran's leaders maintain their grip on power.

How?

We’ll look at key strategies the Islamic Republic has mastered.

And we’ll try to figure out: how powerful is it really?

Iran is sandwiched between the Middle East and the rest of Asia.

To its north, Russia – a strategic ally.

And to the south,

major global trading routes –

looks like a pretty good set-up

for an oil-rich country

pushing to be a regional power.

But...

Iran feels extremely insecure,

isolated in that part of the world,

really doesn't have much

in terms of regional alliances.

This is political economist Sara Bazoobandi.

She grew up in Iran and has worked on Iranian issues for over 20 years.

A quick look at the map can explain

that feeling of isolation: Iran is

the country with the largest

Shia Muslim population in the world.

But all of these neighboring

countries have a Sunni majority –

which is another,

much larger, branch of Islam.

Among them is Iran’s

main rival, Saudi Arabia.

Both are vying for dominance

in the Muslim world.

Iran is even ruled by a cleric:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has been

the Islamic Republic’s “Supreme Leader” for the last 35 years.

The Iranian revolution created the Islamic Republic in 1979.

It was anti-Western at its core, after a history of British and US

meddling in the country.

That’s another story.

Today, we often see rallies like these in Tehran, transporting

the rhetoric of the Iranian regime.

Since the revolution, it has considered the US and Israel

its main enemies.

And both have targeted Iran.

Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, was assassinated in 2020 –

by the US.

He’s become a martyr for the Iranian regime.

And Israel is believed to be behind this attack.

Seven military officials were killed in an airstrike on

an Iranian consulate in Syria.

Iran is using these disruptive tactics:

proxy militias, drones and

its nuclear program.

A lot to unpack there.

But let’s start with

Iran’s support of proxy militias.

In recent months, Houthi rebels

have attacked and sunk commercial ships

in the Red Sea,

killing several crew members.

The Houthis are a militia group based in Yemen –

and they’re backed by Iran.

They reportedly use

Iranian intelligence – and

its drones and missiles.

Like Iran, the Houthis

consider Israel an enemy.

They say the attacks on ships are

a response to Israel’s war against

Hamas in Gaza.

With the help of Iranian drones,

a group like Houthis with very little

resources managed to become a

key instabilizing factor that really

brought the maritime, global maritime security to the brink of a crisis.

Before the attacks, around a third of the world’s container traffic passed

through the Red Sea.

Since the attacks started, insurance costs for ships have skyrocketed.

Many ships are now avoiding the Red Sea altogether.

And taking this – much longer – route to get to Europe.

An expensive detour – that could even drive up the cost of groceries in

your local supermarket.

Other militias include the powerful Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated at the border.

And there are other militant groups in Iraq, Syria, and Bahrain.

And Hamas in the Palestinian territories, which many analysts

don’t consider a proxy per se, but which gets funding, weapons and

training from Iran.

Hamas is considered a terrorist organization by the US and the EU.

The militant group launched an attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023, after

which Israel retaliated with a full-scale invasion and

bombardment of Gaza.

Iran denied being involved in the planning of

the October 7th attack.

But this is what its Supreme Leader said about it:

We kiss the foreheads

and upper arms of the intelligent

and brave Palestinians who planned

these attacks against the Zionist regime.

Iran describes these groups as the “Axis of Resistance” against

Israel, the US and the West as a whole.

But ultimately maintaining all of

these operations which requires

a lot of leadership and it

requires a lot of resources.

So, managing the proxies doesn't

come cheap – but for now,

it’s worth it for the Iranian regime.

Iran can attack Israel and

destabilize the region while keeping

conflict away from its own borders.

Drones are another part of Iran’s playbook.

Due to international sanctions,

Iran lacks access to advanced

technology available elsewhere.

So, it started designing and producing drones, which are

relatively low-cost and low-tech.

But they are effective – barely detectable by radar and

can carry warheads.

Iran says it is exporting drones and drone technology

to more than 20 countries,

including Tajikistan, Armenia, Sudan, Ethiopia,

Venezuela and Algeria.

…and Russia is using Iranian drones in its war against Ukraine.

It has put Iran on

the international map.

You know, use of Iranian drones in

Europe, in the war in Ukraine, was

quite sobering for many policymakers, especially in Europe.

It has made Iran relevant to a region beyond its traditional

realm of influence.

And then there is Iran’s large and diverse missile arsenal.

Iran and its proxies launched hundreds of missiles and drones

towards Israel in 2024.

Iran’s first direct attack on Israel ever.

Iran said it was retaliation for the deadly airstrike on an Iranian

consulate in Syria that we mentioned earlier.

Israel and its partners intercepted almost all of the barrage.

In part because Iran clearly signaled its plans ahead of time.

So, the attack did little actual damage on the ground.

The principal matter is that Iran

and its armed forces have displayed

their power and determination in

an important international arena.

This display of force has happened and that is what matters.

Iran is maintaining a delicate balance: ttempting to show strength

while trying to avoid outright conflict.

This is Kamran Matin.

He’s an international relations lecturer and has

researched Iran extensively.

These strategies rather than being

intrinsically offensive, they are

supposedly defensive because Iran

thinks that the West is trying to

overthrow the regime at any, you know, opportune moment

so these are seen as deterrents.

And deterrence is at the core of Iran’s strategy.

Which leads us to Iran’s nuclear program.

These are Iran’s key nuclear facilities.

The Iranian regime has repeatedly

said they are used for research and

to produce energy.

But do they?

The Iranian nuclear project produces

more or less zero electricity and

energy at the moment.

So, is Iran building nuclear weapons?

The truth is: we don’t know.

But even the idea that Iran might become a nuclear power

is valuable for the regime.

It projects stability for Iranians’

military and security agenda.

And it makes it very difficult

to confront Iran.

The nuclear project becomes

a bargaining chip, if you like, in

Iran's negotiations with the West

aimed at removing the sanctions or

improve its standing in

the international arena.

And for a while, that’s what happened.

The nuclear deal between Iran and major world powers

offered sanctions relief.

In return, Iran had to limit its nuclear enrichment.

But then Donald Trump, as US president, withdrew

from the agreement.

A turning point.

Iran began a new strategy which Iranian political elite

call “Turn to the East”.

And this turn to the East means, or has meant, a much more strategic

relationship with China and Russia.

China is the top buyer of Iranian oil.

And Iran and Russia have

a deepening strategic partnership.

But it goes further:

this is Iran, Russia and China

conducting joint naval drills.

Iran has been very clear that it

has a vision for a new world order.

In that new world order,

the US power is declining.

Therefore, the non-Western powers

are on the rise.

Iran has recently joined BRICS – an economic bloc that aims to be

an alternative to major Western powers.

But Iran can’t fully rely on these countries.

China and Russia have cleverly kept Iran at the doorstep, you know, kept

Iran at the arm length, bring Iran when it serves their interest.

So, the Iranian regime pretty much only trusts itself.

It relies on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC

that exists in parallel to the conventional Iranian military and

is better resourced.

The IRGC is key to all the strategies we’ve looked at –

outside the country.

But also, inside.

And that’s where Iran’s repressive leadership starts to look weak.

Every authoritarian regime relies on a certain level of popular support,

and that level of popular support in Iran has been significantly declining

over the past decades.

And I think that is one of the most

dangerous issues that are going

against the stability of the regime.

In 2022, the death of Jina Mahsa Amini while she was in police custody

sparked protests across the country.

At first, protests focused on solidarity with Amini and demands

for women’s rights.

But they quickly became about more: corruption, poverty and

a lack of freedom.

The regime has crushed any dissent.

But the protests exposed cracks in its power.

In order to pacify this extremely angry society,

Islamic Republic needs

to improve the economic situation,

but it can't because it's under

sanctions, because of

its nuclear project.

But it doesn't want to give up

the nuclear project because it sees

it as an insurance for its survival.

This complex relationship with outside and inside has created

this endemic crisis in Iran.

So, what can we learn from all this?

Iran is not as powerful as it would like to be.

But as a whole, its strategies are effective.

Iran knows how to disrupt and destabilize for its own gains -- and

away from its own borders.

How long can the regime maintain its grip on both,

in the region and domestically?

As long as the country is led by religious hardliners,

things are unlikely to change.