Impact of Budget on these 8 stocks | Akshat Shrivastava
Summary
TLDRThis video offers insights into how the budget may influence the stock market, advising against impulsive investment in sectors like defense and railways without data-backed analysis. The speaker highlights the potential of AI products for financial independence and promotes a masterclass for non-tech individuals. Emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure and job creation, the video suggests sectors like digital infrastructure, agriculture, and green energy as promising investment opportunities, with specific stock recommendations for each.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker advises against blindly investing in defense or railway stocks without understanding the data and facts presented in the budget.
- 💡 An alternative to traditional stock investments is building AI products, which the speaker suggests can be done by people without a tech background through education platforms like 'build school'.
- 🔢 The budget's meta data is crucial for understanding the government's financial plans, and the speaker emphasizes the importance of comparing actual expenditures with budgeted figures.
- 📉 The speaker predicts that if the government does not follow through on its promise to increase defense spending, related stocks may fall, and they personally avoid investing in this sector.
- 🇮🇳 The speaker highlights the Indian government's focus on addressing job scarcity and inflation, which are key pain points, and appreciates the government's focus on capital expenditure.
- 🏭 The speaker is bullish on sectors that will benefit from a shift towards digital infrastructure, citing companies like TCS and Geojith Finance as potential investments.
- 🚫 The speaker warns that the defense theme may have already reached its peak and advises looking for niche opportunities within the sector that align with indigenous manufacturing.
- 🚆 The speaker is not bullish on railway stocks due to the complexity and broad range of companies involved, suggesting a basket approach for those interested.
- ✈️ The speaker suggests that airlines could be a better investment than railways, as the middle class in India grows and air travel becomes more prevalent.
- 🌱 The speaker is bullish on the agricultural sector, citing government investment in agri R&D and recommending stocks like Pi Industries.
- 🌿 The speaker also sees potential in green energy, particularly companies involved in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) of renewable energy projects.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video?
-The main topic of the video is to help viewers understand how the budget might impact the stock market and to discuss some stocks that the speaker is bullish about.
What is the speaker's stance on defense stocks?
-The speaker is not bullish on defense stocks, suggesting that the market has already factored in the government's spending on defense and that these stocks might fall if the budget does not meet expectations.
What is the speaker's advice regarding railway stocks?
-The speaker advises caution with railway stocks, suggesting that it's complicated to analyze this sector and recommends creating a basket of 10-15 stocks in this category if one still wants to invest.
What is the speaker's view on the current state of the Indian economy?
-The speaker mentions that the Indian economy is currently facing issues like lack of jobs and high inflation, and that the government is focusing on capital expenditure to address these issues.
What is the speaker's opinion on the potential of AI products in achieving financial independence?
-The speaker believes that building AI products is a viable way to achieve financial independence, especially for those without a tech background, and mentions a master class offered by Build School for learning how to build and launch AI-related products.
What are the two key themes the speaker is bullish about in the Indian stock market?
-The speaker is bullish about the agricultural theme and the digital infrastructure theme, suggesting that these areas will see quality growth and capital expenditure.
What is the speaker's strategy for investing in the defense sector?
-The speaker suggests focusing on very niche themes within the defense segment that are required to be indigenized, rather than investing broadly in the defense sector.
What are the two stocks the speaker is bullish about and why?
-The speaker is bullish about Geo Finance and TCS. The speaker believes that Geo Finance is a stable stock with potential for growth in India's digital requirements, and TCS is expected to benefit from India's focus on digital infrastructure and a potential interest rate cut.
What is the speaker's view on the Indian government's focus on capital expenditure?
-The speaker appreciates the BJP government's focus on capital expenditure, as it is a good type of expenditure that can lead to quality growth and sensible results.
What is the speaker's advice on how to become a better investor?
-The speaker advises learning the fundamentals of investing, running a stock market course, and participating in a community like the Wisdom Community to learn and practice what has been taught.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Analysis Post-Budget
The speaker begins by addressing the audience and setting the context for the video, which is to analyze how the budget might impact the stock market. They caution against making impulsive stock purchases based on the budget and emphasize the importance of understanding data and facts. The speaker also introduces an AI product-building school, offering a free masterclass for the first 1,000 users, which is relevant for individuals from various professional backgrounds. The video then transitions to discussing the budget's meta data, comparing actual expenditures to budgeted amounts, and highlighting the changes from 2023 to 2024. The speaker also touches on the political implications of the budget, particularly the focus on nationalism and defense spending, and provides a personal analysis of the defense theme in the stock market.
💼 Capital Expenditure and Infrastructure Focus
In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the government's focus on capital expenditure, appreciating the growth rate and its potential impact on sensible results. The speaker, who teaches economics and finance, presents data and analysis without political bias. They mention running a stock market course for beginners and the benefits of joining the Wisdom Community for further learning and practice. The speaker then delves into the distinction between physical and digital infrastructure, suggesting a shift in focus towards digital infrastructure. They express bullishness on two stocks, Geo Finance and TCS, due to their potential growth in the digital infrastructure space, and provide a brief analysis of the defense sector's opportunities and challenges.
🛫 Diversifying Investment Themes
The speaker moves on to discuss various investment themes, starting with the defense sector, where they express a cautious approach due to the sector's reliance on international relations and the potential for indigenous manufacturing. They suggest looking for niche themes within the defense segment that might offer growth opportunities. The speaker then shifts focus to railway stocks, advising against broad investment in this sector due to its complexity and suggesting a basket approach instead. They also touch on the potential of airline stocks as a better investment theme, given the growing middle class and the preference for air travel over railways.
🌱 Agricultural and Digital Themes for Growth
In the final paragraph, the speaker outlines their bullish stance on the agricultural theme, citing a statement by NAS Chief Investment in ag R&D and the potential for higher yields. They recommend Pi Industries as a stock to watch due to its consolidation and sensible P/E numbers. The speaker also discusses the potential of IT stocks like TCS and Infosys, highlighting technical patterns and the benefits of interest rate cuts for these companies. They conclude with a mention of green energy as a continuing theme, with a focus on EPC companies and the potential for growth in this sector.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Budget
💡Stock Market
💡Defense Stocks
💡Railway Stocks
💡AI Products
💡Capital Expenditure
💡Inflation
💡Physical Infrastructure
💡Digital Infrastructure
💡Geo Finance
💡TCS
Highlights
The video aims to help viewers understand the potential impact of the budget on the stock market and guide them on which stocks to consider.
The speaker warns against blindly investing in defense or railway stocks without analyzing data and facts.
An introduction to an alternative way to achieve financial independence through building AI products, even for those without a tech background.
A mention of a free masterclass for building AI-related products, available to the first 1,000 users through links in the description.
The importance of understanding the budget's metadata, including actual versus budgeted expenditures, is emphasized.
A detailed analysis of the defense budget, highlighting an 8% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating a positive development.
The speaker suggests that the market has already factored in increased defense spending, warning of potential falls if this does not materialize.
The government's focus on capital expenditure, which is seen as a positive move towards addressing job creation and inflation.
An appreciation of the BJP government's focus on capital expenditure and its potential impact on sensible results.
The speaker's personal stock market course is advertised, promising to teach everything from scratch for beginners.
A shift in focus from physical to digital infrastructure is predicted, with the speaker expressing bullishness on certain tech stocks.
Specific stocks that the speaker is bullish about are mentioned, including Geo Finance and TCS, due to their potential growth in digital infrastructure.
A discussion on India's defense sector opportunities and the potential for defense stocks to fall if the budget does not meet expectations.
The speaker advises caution in investing in railway stocks due to the complexity and the need for a niche focus within the sector.
An alternative suggestion to consider airline stocks due to the growing middle class and preference for air travel over railways.
The introduction of specific themes the speaker is bullish on, including agriculture, IT stocks, and green energy, with specific stock recommendations.
A final summary of the video's key points, encouraging viewers to analyze the budget and different themes carefully before investing.
Transcripts
hi everyone so on this video I'm going
to help you understand how the budget
might impact the stock market what are
some good bad stocks to purchase many of
you might be thinking you know what boss
I'll buy defense stocks or I'll buy
Railway stocks and and I'm going to get
like multimillionaire or whatever please
do not do it please understand data
facts so I'm going to present all the
data facts in pointwise manner I'll also
reveal some of the stocks that I am
bullish about but this is not a stock
recommendation video please do your own
analysis Financial Independence be built
through stocks but in 2024 there is
another way to do that which is to build
AI products there are a lot of people
who despite having no Tech background
are building AI products and making
money with it too if this sounds
interesting here's your chance to learn
how to do it in build school they teach
how to build and launch AI related
products they are offering a master
class usually this master class is paid
but by using the links in the
description and comment box the first
1,000 users can attend this master class
absolutely free of cost so whether you
are from a tech background HR background
Finance marketing design or sales
professional this master class will be
highly relevant for you you will learn
tools and techniques to come up with AI
related ideas how to use the no code
stack in order to build products and
finally how to acquire your first 100
customers 300,000 people have already
attended and benefited from this master
class so in case you are interested you
can definitely check out the links in
the description and comment box so back
to the video and the first key point
that I will help you understand stand is
the metad DAT of the
budget for example this is the table
please look at this actuals budgeted
revised
bued what was budgeted for example in
2023 593 538 was budgeted as a spent on
defense but the actual expenditure came
out to be little short
5739 right so on and so forth right so
this is point one point two that you
need to know from this data is that see
2024 budget has already been presented
in a way that was the interim budget now
it will be because there the ruling
party has come back to Power now they
will present the actual budget right so
they have already indicated where they
are going to spend money right so for
example they have already said defense
we are going to go and spend so how do
you analyze this data it's very
simple for example see the first key
thing that you should notice is that how
much has it changed from 2023 to
2024 already what has been budgeted so
for
example we went from 593 to
621 8% increase so this is already a
positive development second key point
that this was an election year right the
BJP government came back into power and
all good good things no doubt about that
but the fact is that see that
nationalism thing has played out now
there is no reason for the government to
keep on pushing these themes like
defense
Railways so this is a point that you
need to be careful this is not a buy or
not buy recommendation I'm simply
telling you facts third key point and
the more important point is the market
is already factoring in the fact that in
this new budget govern is going to spend
money on defense now in case that does
not
happen they are going to fall my
estimate is that these stocks are going
to fall so I'm not touching them this is
the type of analysis that you need to do
on other sectors I will give you my take
also on different themes that I'm
bullish about but I'm not really bullish
on defense theme now why am I saying
that so before I speak specifically
about the defense theme let me share
like very key important point and a
common sensical Point here
now budget is brought in order to
achieve some goal that the government
has and one of the key goals
is right now in India Hal is being made
for two things number one lack of jobs
and the number two Hal point is
inflation which
is insur 14 14 15 15% premium
so you know 5% 6% is the only growth no
that is not the case uh the inflation
growth has been fairly high so these are
two pain points now this was a pain
point last year also but in this in
these last 8 10 months what has changed
well election results even government
understands this is not working for us
so maybe we should start focusing on
jobs inflation
such so maybe they will focus on that
good thing is that government is
actually looking at it and this can be
understood by looking at this point this
is always good and I always appreciated
the BJP government for doing this that
they are focusing on capital expenditure
the growth rate of capital expenditure
which is the good type of expenditure is
picking up this is a good point right so
whenever any government is doing good
work we have to appreciate so I'm
appreciating
itom right I teach economics I teach
Finance I analyze the data I present it
in front of you right I have no interest
in becoming like Mont and all that stuff
so it's not as if that I'm during any
political party now back to the video
see this is happening right so this is
good point maybe this will now start
translating into sensible results if the
budgetary allocations make sense okay
now what do I mean by that let me help
you understand that point more and
please this is what allows you to make
money that is not the point right you
have to understand the fundamentals so
that you can realign your portfolio in
case you guys are interested I also run
stock market course a live batch is
coming up I will teach everything from
scratch so if you are a complete
beginner also this course will be very
helpful we study for full four days
right over two weekends so then you put
on the wisdom Community where you end up
learning and practicing whatever I've
taught you for over a year so that is
how you will become a better investor
there is no such course that is
currently being run by
anyone fundamental knowledge I'm doing
it people have really appreciated it so
in case you guys are interested do check
it out so okay plug lug now let me talk
about specific sectors in India there
are two types of things right one is
that you can create physical
infrastructure and second you can create
digital infrastructure both of the
infrastructures are important but one
could clearly see right that the focus
in the last one one and a half two years
was on physical
infrastructure and all that stuff now
the capital expenditure can happen here
also the capital expenditure can happen
here also now here when the capital
expenditure happens we were not focusing
on quality of
infrastructure for
example but do it really translate into
any sort of sensible results the short
answer is no right so I feel that the
government is going to do the right
thing now right it will move away from
this entire physical narrative it will
start focusing more on digital narrative
which brings us to very quick stocks
that I am two stocks that I'm bullish
about I'll explain in that also one is
Geo Finance I already have it I might
increase my positions second is TCS I
discussed this in community also roughly
20 25 odd days
back on TCS stock also why because I
feel that the digital infrastructure is
where a lot of capital expenditure will
lead to Quality growth right so this is
a very important Point quality everyone
understands all that
indigenous theme and all that stuff
right it's not as if that government is
forever going to play this theme only
they are going to keep on playing the
infrastructure physical theme only right
now this theme has been somewhat
neglected according to me so a lot of
support will be lent here that is my
estimate so let me Del deeper into
specific sections because I can already
hear clicking
noises and all that stuff okay so see
guys basically number one point is I
will show you the entire thing right so
the first key point is that India's
defense sector has opportunities for USD
138 billion over the next 10 years very
good news and this is the type of news
that actually has already propelled the
defense
stocks or bunch of different different
stocks have grown up by like four four
five five times okay so this theme has
already run this is point one point two
you can see from this graph that India's
defense budget in the last 10 years has
actually spiked quite a lot okay you
know this graph will be like this right
no it's not as if that in India we only
need defense budget only we need other
things also okay so please remember this
we are probably peing when it comes to
defense spending as per my understanding
or defense growth rate right now do you
guys know that who is the biggest arms
importer in the world well it's India
why because we have to extend favors to
countries like Russia countries like USA
why because India has strategic
importance and us also has a strategic
importance Russia also has a strategic
importance if India wants to maintain
its relationships it needs to give
business to these countries also and as
a
result so please don't miss that point
this is very very
important indigenous this that stuff
which is great no doubt about that but
please do not forget that indigenous
manufacturing of Defense product why
will Russia support us why will US
support us all that stuff so please
remember that this is a critical point I
feel that defense theme has played out I
am not putting any money on this theme
now in case this pinches you and you
disagree with me then what I would
recommend you is that take a look at
these stocks right and order book for
example H
order some stocks which is doing some
kind of very specific Niche work that
can't be outsourced to us or Russia for
example in say and you guys tell me in
the comment box that Ina if you feel
that for example India is working on
defense security Now
defense all
that now that is a critical challenge
for example defense security defense
security is what right that for example
there is certain critical piece of
information that we cannot give to us
and Russia and all all those countries
so is may say which of the companies do
you think will end up doing that type of
work so that is a sub segment of defense
that might grow H cannot keep on growing
that is tough according to my analysis
uh so I'm just giving you a high level
Viewpoint so far I've not been able to
figure out any specific Niche themes I'm
not an expert when it comes to defense
in case some of you are let me know I
will analyze these companies more but
the idea is to specifically figure out a
very Niche theme within the defense
segment which is required to be
indigenized so that's sub segment that
might play out okay so this is what I
would look for if I were to do defense
investing now let's talk quickly about
railway stocks now see guys basically
these type of headlines will come that
hey Indian railways to manufacture
10,000 AC
coaches now the problem is that here is
the universe of Railway stocks now right
for example will you buy bearings right
or will you buy forging companies or
will you buy Railway cables
wires everything will be there cables
wires will be there bearings will be
there forging will be done so many
different different things will be done
so it's impossible to analyze this
entire group of stocks sensibly right
it's complicated it's puning it's
gambling what I would recommend is that
STS right and just create like a basket
of those 10 15 stocks
and right so that is the simple point
that you can do am I doing it no okay
I'm not very bullish on a railway like
physical themes right now so I not
putting in but if that is if you still
feel that Railway is going to grow
because announc then good luck please
you can do that but my advice to you
would be that hey pick like 10 15 stocks
within this category and and mostly try
to pick the stocks that have already not
gone
45xx okay so I hope that this is
sensible a better theme according to me
would be something like Airlines okay
now Airlines why because Airlines may be
right that for example this is the total
outlay or the budgetary allocation of
Airlines the India's middle class
segment is growing now mostly these days
I mean many of us are preferring to
travel by Airways compared to Railways
ac1 AC then the train ticket is almost
equivalent to Airlines
ticket so what I'm trying to tell you is
that from a cost perspective it's not as
if there's now a massive gap between
Airlines and Railways okay if you are in
Middle upper middle class segment then
the chances are that You' be using more
and more Airways so this might increase
I had done a video on spice jet a few
days
back I was just giving an analis audit
not an issue point I'm trying to make is
that companies like Indigo and some of
the end Airlines whichever you see value
in depending on how you want to
aggregate it in your portfolio you could
consider picking these type of companies
it might make more sense now let me
start speaking about specific themes
that I'm bullish on and why and I will
introduce some stocks to you also and
explain you the reason why but so far I
hope that you were able to understand
and appreciate the point overvalue
defense themes raway themes you should
pretty much avoid
it sensibly carefully that is the
precise input that I will have so the
First theme that I'm bullish about is
agricultural theme now there was a
statement that was issued by Nas
Chief investment
in ag R&D then 13 can be fetched now the
Agri R&D is mostly done by the
government or is supported by the
government right so
because for example
specials now it might make sense to pick
like slightly broader type of businesses
here I'm personally picking up something
called as Pi Industries I feel the stock
is good I had already built positions on
it I'll do a very quick analysis right
why Pi industry seems like an okay Bet
as of now
the stock has Consolidated it hasn't run
up like crazy in the last 2 3 years so
consolidate stock right that's one
second key thing it's available at a
sensible P numbers grow there is no
problem in terms of numbers so therefore
I feel that this is a good stock from a
mid to long-term Viewpoint so this is
the first key theme that I will be
bullish on now if you do not agree with
pi Industries you can go and check out
these stocks and Analysis and whichever
stocks you like you can go and pick
second is it stocks I feel that they are
going through a turnaround in fact when
TCS P not only I gave member Community
commentary I also made an open video few
maybe around a month
back have not removed this I had
estimated that the stock will go
something like this
but so this was like faster gain now
again this is a beautiful technical
pattern let me show it to you so right
this is reverse Head and Shoulder now
this is more like a cup with handle
pattern and techn tget this will come
out to be roughly 6,000 rupes ASP right
so there is good gains to be made and as
India starts focusing more on digital
infra right contracts ISS and TCS seems
like the top bidder TCS infosis worst is
over it looks like interest rate cut us
Advantage mea for these companies so
this is set to Rally so I will try to
max out my positions on TCS over the
next one month and a half two months
right so this seems like a good bit as
of now second stock is Gio fin right Gio
problem
right but it is a stable stock in the
sense that it is likely to survive the
next 5 10 years so if you're holding it
from a long-term perspective as India's
digital requirements keep on growing
it's going to do well and profit
making that they recently hiked the goo
plans right and were able to Mint like
very good money so game right and they
will become more and more profitable so
it makes sense to have a little bit of
Stak there right and not cut it and
don't be bother too much about it B Gio
finance stock check if you investing it
from a long-term Viewpoint it makes
sense if you are looking to make
short-term profit on it then no one can
guess it's a very volatile stock finally
I will talk about green energy I think
this is a theme that might still
continue to do well uh a lot of work has
already happened I have a stock called
as s SW solar that is already doing well
I will build more positions on it why
because India is going to reduce its
dependence on conventional sources of
energy but
all that stuff you have to be picky
right at what point certain theme is
playing out for example right now EPC
theme is likely to play out EPC
engineering procurement construction
so because a lot of infrastructure needs
to be built and well connected small Gap
company they are likely to do well
Solis I will revisit this stock tomorrow
on the member community so in case you
guys are interested you can definitely
check it out I hope that you enjoyed
this video I'll make a part two soon but
I hope that this gave give you an
introductory understanding of how to
analyze the budget how to analyze
different themes if you did do press the
like button and subscribe and I'll see
you soon
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