WARNING... Time to Sell..?
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, the presenter discusses the stock market's recent record highs and the potential implications of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony. They highlight the NASDAQ's all-time high and the S&P's close approach to its target, pondering if it's time to sell. The video emphasizes the importance of market patterns and historical trends, suggesting that despite current bullish sentiment, investors should watch for specific indicators before making decisions. The presenter also previews upcoming economic data releases that could impact the market direction.
Takeaways
- 📈 The stock market has reached another record close, with the NASDAQ hitting an all-time high at $4.99 on QQQ.
- 🎯 The script discusses the significance of the number 500, as the market hit exactly 500 and then backed off, indicating a potential turning point.
- 🗣️ Jerome Powell's testimony did not significantly impact the markets, as there were no near-term policy signals, leading to a 'boring' but bullish market reaction.
- 📊 The S&P is close to reaching its target of 561, which is a critical level for the market's continuation of the uptrend.
- 📅 Historically, the first half of July has been a strong period for the stock market, but caution is advised as we approach July 17th.
- 🔍 The script emphasizes the importance of watching for patterns and signals in the NASDAQ, such as the formation of a full candle and repeated closing over the candle high.
- 📉 If the NASDAQ prints a daily lower low, it could signal a potential downturn back to support levels around 485.
- 📈 Conversely, maintaining a higher low and printing a higher high could push the market over the 500 area, confirming the uptrend.
- 🚫 The speaker advises against selling without waiting for confirmation of a downturn, such as a drop below the previous week's high.
- 💰 There is a significant amount of money in Money Market funds, indicating that many investors are on the sidelines, which could fuel further market gains if they decide to re-enter.
- 📊 The speaker expects positive economic data in the coming week, which could be bullish for the market, and is watching for the weekly chart to close over by Friday as a bullish sign.
Q & A
What is the significance of the stock market hitting an all-time high and what does the speaker refer to by 'Target hit'?
-The 'Target hit' refers to the NASDAQ reaching an all-time high at $4.99, which is a significant milestone in the market's performance. It suggests that the market has reached a new peak, and the speaker is considering whether this is a good time to sell based on this achievement.
What is the role of Jerome Powell's testimony in the context of the market's movement?
-Jerome Powell's testimony as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is significant because it can influence market expectations regarding monetary policy. However, in this case, the market did not react significantly to his first day of testimony, indicating that his statements did not provide any immediate policy signals.
What does the speaker mean by 'mathematical extension' in relation to the market?
-The 'mathematical extension' refers to a technical analysis tool used to project potential future price levels based on historical data and patterns. In this context, it was used to predict the all-time high of $4.99 on QQQ.
Why is the number 500 significant in the context of the NASDAQ's performance?
-The number 500 is significant because it represents a psychological and technical resistance level that the NASDAQ has hit and then backed off from. This could indicate a potential turning point or a pause in the market's upward trend.
What is the speaker's view on the S&P 500's potential to reach its target of 5600?
-The speaker suggests that the S&P 500 is within 1% of reaching its target of 5600, indicating a strong upward trend. However, they are also looking for confirmation from the NASDAQ and other market indicators to determine if this target will be achieved.
What historical pattern does the speaker refer to regarding the performance of the stock market in July?
-The speaker refers to a historical pattern where the first 15 days of July have been the best two-week trading period of the year. However, they caution that things might change around July 17th, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment or performance.
What is the importance of the pattern of 'low higher low higher' in the NASDAQ's candlestick chart?
-The pattern of 'low higher low higher' indicates an expansion in the market's uptrend. It shows that the market has been making higher lows and higher highs, which is typically a bullish signal. The speaker is looking for this pattern to continue for further confirmation of the uptrend.
What does the speaker mean by 'falling below last week's high' as a potential market signal?
-The speaker is suggesting that if the market falls below the high reached in the previous week, specifically at 496.6, it could be an early signal of a potential downturn or correction in the market.
What is the significance of the number 488 for the NASDAQ in the context of the speaker's analysis?
-The number 488 is significant as it represents a level above which the NASDAQ would need to remain to maintain the bullish pattern of 'higher over the candle high.' If the index falls below this number, it could indicate a bearish shift.
What is the speaker's stance on selling in the current market conditions?
-The speaker advises against selling immediately and suggests waiting for confirmation of a downturn, such as a drop below certain technical levels or the formation of a daily lower low. They seem to be in a 'buy the dip' mindset, anticipating further market gains.
What economic indicators and events does the speaker anticipate will influence the market in the coming week?
-The speaker anticipates that Jerome Powell's second day of testimony, the 10-year auction, inflation numbers, a 30-year bond auction, and PPI data will be influential. They believe these indicators could provide bullish signals for the market.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Analysis: Record Highs and Target Hits
The video discusses the stock market's bullish trend, with a focus on the NASDAQ hitting an all-time high and the potential implications of Jerome Powell's testimony. It highlights the significance of the market's reaction to Powell's first day of testimony and the anticipation of his second day. The speaker emphasizes the importance of the NASDAQ's 16,161 extension, which led to a target hit at $4.99 on QQQ, and the S&P's close proximity to its 5600 target. The video also touches on the historical performance of the stock market in the first half of July and the potential for a change in trend around July 17th. Key technical analysis points, such as the importance of maintaining over the candle high and the potential for a daily lower low, are discussed as indicators for market direction.
📊 Market Trends and Upcoming Economic Indicators
This paragraph delves into the current market trends, noting the cooling off of fear and greed indices, and the market's continued upward movement despite a significant amount of money being parked in Money Market funds. The speaker suggests that the market's performance could be influenced by upcoming economic indicators and events, such as Jerome Powell's second day of testimony, the 10-year auction, and the release of inflation numbers. The paragraph also mentions the potential bullish impact of these events and the importance of watching the weekly chart for market direction. The speaker expresses a personal bias towards buying if the market dips, based on historical trends and the anticipation of positive economic data. The video concludes with a brief mention of bank earnings and a technical analysis of the XLF, suggesting a potential for further market gains.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Stock Market Bulls
💡Record Close
💡Target Hit
💡Jerome Powell
💡All-Time High
💡Mathematical Extension
💡Iceberg
💡NASDAQ
💡S&P 500
💡Candlestick Chart
💡Money Market Funds
💡Fear and Greed Index
💡Inflation Numbers
💡Bank Earnings
Highlights
Stock market hits another record close, raising questions about potential selling opportunities.
Target hit on QQQ at an all-time high mathematical extension of $4.99.
Market reaction to Jerome Powell's testimony was muted with no significant policy signals.
NASDAQ and S&P are near their respective targets, with S&P close to 5600.
Historical data suggests the first half of July is typically a strong period for stock trading.
A potential change in market direction could be signaled by a daily lower low on NASDAQ.
Maintaining a higher low and higher high on NASDAQ could push the index over 500.
A fail breakout pattern on the monthly chart could be significant for NASDAQ.
NASDAQ's key number for continued bullish trend is over 488.
S&P's key resistance levels are 550 and 551, indicating a bullish trend if maintained.
A drop below last week's high at 4 96.6 could indicate a market downturn.
Historical patterns suggest buying the dip could be a profitable strategy.
Market sentiment has cooled, with fear and greed indicators showing neutrality.
There is over $6.1 trillion in Money Market funds, indicating potential for market growth.
Upcoming economic data releases, including inflation numbers, could influence market direction.
Bank earnings and economic indicators may provide further market direction cues.
XLF has digested gains and is back above its all-time high, suggesting potential for further growth.
Transcripts
oh my goodness what are these stock
market Bulls doing with yet another
record close and a Target hit is it time
to think about selling this will matter
because Jerome Powell finished his first
day of testimony today and he is going
to be speaking again tomorrow but the
title of today's video says Target hit
so what exactly am I talking about I'm
talking about the all-time high down to
the bare Market low and a mathematical
extension which it gets us to $4.99 on
QQQ here's the part that gets it a
little bit complicated look at the
number H up here what does it say
500. what does that mean it means we hit
exactly 500 and then backed off so if
the target's now been hit and we got
some ice up here or an iceberg what's
going to happen is it time for a crash
that's exactly what I want to talk about
today so Jerome Powell spoke markets
moved but basically uh the market didn't
really care why because nothing really
happened there's key takeaways from pow
today all I want to do is focus on one
bullet point though with this one here
markets uh basically had a muted move
why Jerome Powell did not give any
near-term signals on policy stocks
hovered at all-time highs blah blah blah
blah blah in this case here boring is
perfectly good and it's bullish we
talked about that yesterday and now
here's the important thing why well
because uh we talked about the NASDAQ
hitting its 16 161 extension and hitting
exactly $500.00
and now the S&P is within 1% of getting
to that 5600 Target so if chps lead tech
and Tech lead spy is S&P actually going
to be able to hit its number or is only
the NASDAQ going to make it there we're
looking for 561 on the S&P for that same
all-time high the bare Market low and
extension back up to 561 we're really
close and we've been talking about
exactly what feedback we want to see to
know the Market's going to go lower so
stay tuned if you want to see that at
the end of the show so Jerome Powell
spoke Market didn't really care but as
we know according to history over the
last roughly hundred years the first 15
days of July have been incredible right
the best two-e trading period all year
but on July 17th which we're now getting
closer to things might change so what
are we looking for I'll give you the
quick little preview here because I
think this will be important if we go to
the NASDAQ here QQQ I want you to pay
attention to one pattern here what is it
it's just a candle after we form a full
candle what do we do low higher low
higher low higher low higher low higher
low what does that mean expansion what
do we also do close over the candle High
one two three four five times in a row
you're probably going to recognize this
pattern because I talk about it
frequently but now we have a full candle
which means we closed lower than we
opened this does not really matter
because we're still in an uptrend but if
we print a daily lower low tomorrow we
could be heading back down to support at
roughly 485 on the flip side if we hold
a higher low and we print a higher high
we're going to be over that 500 area why
because today's high of the day is
500.0 if we form a daily higher high
we're going to be over that please
remember we also talked about the
potential for a fail breakout not only
on the weekly chart but we've been we've
been specifically looking at the monthly
chart so let's just go here to make the
story a little bit simpler we're going
to lose the weekly chart first but to
keep the story a little but simple all
we need to do is focus on one number
what is it for the NASDAQ it's 488 why
because if we're over 488 we have that
exact same pattern Hollow over the
candle High over the candle High
currently over the candle high if we
remain over that candle high it's
bullish so is it time to sell hey if you
want to try to top dig please go ahead
what I would do is wait for at least a
little bit of confirmation by what
falling back below last week's High
that's going to be here at 4 96.6 we
basically have to drop by just over a
dollar if we can't drop by a dollar how
are we going to come back down to 470s
or 20 points lower man I don't know so
weekly chart has to break first and then
we have to break the monthly chart so
488 is the only number that matters for
the NASDAQ for the S&P it's 550 and 551
if we're over
55029 I'm round rounding it up to 551 we
remain in a monthly higher high over
resistance
just like every previous time right over
the candle High over over over over get
a full candle little bit of a correction
or a dip and then right back to the same
thing Hollow candles over candle highs
extremely bullish people don't seem to
believe it but uh making Money's been
easy right now it's been a slow melt
higher and the market just doesn't seem
to want to stop so if it's time to sell
I would really suggest you wait for at
least a little bit of feedback what
would the earliest feedback be well like
I just said that would be falling below
last week's high at 555.com
have to drop by about $1 to start
cracking the daily and weekly charts
we're not going to fall on the monthly
time frame unless we crack those charts
first so before we go further I'm going
to ask you for a huge huge favor if you
could please consider smashing that
thumbs up or subscribing to the channel
I would greatly appreciate that please
also remember that if we do drop we're
probably going to want to buy the dip
why because history tells us so when the
S&P is higher by more than 10% at the
middle point of the year we have an 82%
chance we're going to be be higher we're
looking for roughly 600 look to the next
St it's basically the same thing after
we have more than 20 record closes so
far this here by the way today we had
another one at the end of the year
there's an 80% chance for higher and
basically the same thing 6% or almost
10% the market wants to go up and what's
really interesting is that we've
actually cooled off fear and greed a
month ago we were neutral a week ago we
were neutral yesterday we were neutral
but the Market's not neutral over the
last uh 30 days we're up by 2.4% right
the market just keeps going up and up
and up and there's more than $6.1
trillion in Money Market funds there was
actually an increase into the end of end
of June which means that people are
worried about the market they're like um
I don't know about the stock market
thing seems like a casino I'm taking my
money I'm going to money markets um I
don't know if they're going to regret
that but at least for now that is fuel
that could drive the market even higher
who are the gainers today well it's not
not the entire Market if we go to no
group it's Nvidia it's Tesla it's Eli
Lily and this is where it gets really
interesting because as we look forward
to the end of the week we got Jerome
Powell again tomorrow we got a 10-year
auction and then on Thursday we got
really important data we got the
inflation numbers coming in I think
these are going to be bullish why 0.2
was good um it's not great i' rather see
0.1 but hey we're going to take what
we're dealt this is getting closer to
two this is an important number Even If
the Fed doesn't track it why more
evidence that they can cut and then we
got a 30-year Bond auction along with a
10 and on Friday we got PPI so what that
basically means is that I told you that
we need to make sure we watch the weekly
chart I think right I'm confident at
least for me and again I'll flip I'll
flipflop like a flapjack if I get
evidence I'm wrong but I think we're
going to close over by Friday which
means if we do dip I'm likely gonna be
buying it I want to see what that Weekly
candle closes out because I think these
numbers are going to be really bullish
but remember we have Bank earnings
coming out on Friday so the plot
thickens there's always things to worry
about and if we look here just really
fast at XLF what do we doing well we're
not going to the Moon into earnings
we've actually done a digestion period
into what a cup with a handle and we're
currently back above our all-time high
which means it might actually be even
high easier for us to go higher with
that said thank you very much for tuning
in I wish you the best of luck if you
want to hang out with me tomorrow that's
at 9:15 if not click on the left or I'll
see you tomorrow thanks so much
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