Investment Expert Talks About Why 30-40 Crores Is Required For Decent Retirement

How Do I Invest? - The 1% Club Show
1 Jul 202421:35

Summary

TLDRIn this insightful financial discussion, a celebrity fund manager shares his investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of learning from the market's best practices. He discusses his journey from mechanical engineering to financial success, highlighting key strategies such as investing in undervalued stocks and avoiding the common pitfalls of chasing past winners. The conversation delves into market valuation, the significance of profit growth, and the manager's personal financial independence. He also addresses misconceptions about gold as an investment and provides guidance for young investors aiming for financial freedom by the age of 50.

Takeaways

  • 💡 Investing in gold may not always be the best strategy as it can be as volatile as the stock market and historically has not provided returns as high as the Nifty index in rupee terms.
  • 📈 The speaker emphasizes the importance of investing in undervalued stocks with a strong history of good governance, clean accounting, and a dominant franchise, especially if their profits grow faster than their share prices.
  • 📚 The impact of reading and learning from successful investors like the speaker can be transformative for one's financial journey, as it was for the person who started as a mechanical engineer.
  • 📊 The speaker's book 'Coffee Can Investing' has sold around 100,000 copies, indicating its influence and popularity in the field of personal finance.
  • 🏆 A significant investment success story is highlighted with GMM Foder, a company that saw a 4X return in 12 months due to increased demand for pharmaceuticals during the pandemic.
  • 💰 The concept of a 'fire number' is introduced, which represents the amount of money one needs to achieve financial independence and not work for money anymore.
  • 🏠 The speaker's experience with property investment in India is shared, noting that rental yield versus home loan rates can indicate overvaluation in the property market.
  • 📉 The interviewee discusses the difficulty of timing the market, suggesting that investing in fundamentally strong companies with consistent profit growth is a safer approach.
  • 🌐 The importance of global diversification is underscored, with the speaker allocating a portion of investments to the US market to hedge against domestic economic uncertainties.
  • 🔢 The interviewee provides a formula for calculating financial independence, taking into account expected retirement age, life expectancy, and inflation-adjusted living expenses.
  • 🚀 For those starting late, the concept of 'coffee can investing' is introduced, which involves investing in companies with strong compounding potential in the final years of one's career.

Q & A

  • What was the return on investment in gold last year according to the discussion?

    -The transcript mentions that gold gave upwards of 20% returns last year.

  • What is the speaker's financial independence number, and what does it signify?

    -The speaker's financial independence number is close to 50 crores, which signifies the amount of money needed to retire comfortably without having to work for money anymore.

  • What is the speaker's view on investing in gold as a long-term strategy?

    -The speaker does not favor investing in gold for the long term, citing that it lacks a real-world use or earnings to anchor its valuation and has shown to be as volatile as the stock market with lower returns.

  • How did the speaker's investment in GMM Foder perform over time?

    -The speaker's investment in GMM Foder initially did well, with a 20-30% return, and then quadrupled in value within 12 months due to increased demand for pharmaceuticals and their products.

  • What is the significance of the 'coffee can' investing approach mentioned in the script?

    -The 'coffee can' investing approach, as described in the speaker's book, is a long-term, buy-and-hold strategy that emphasizes investing in companies with strong fundamentals and a history of good governance.

  • What was the speaker's first significant investment in the stock market?

    -The speaker's first significant investment in the stock market was in 2012, when they invested in Templeton Small and Midcap Fund, which doubled their investment in the next couple of years.

  • How did the speaker identify an opportunity with Bajaj Finance during the COVID-19 pandemic?

    -The speaker identified an opportunity with Bajaj Finance when the stock dropped 65% due to negative narratives around the company during the COVID-19 pandemic. They believed in the company's financial backing and client base, leading them to triple their position in the stock, which later tripled in value.

  • What is the speaker's perspective on the correlation between gold and the Indian stock market?

    -The speaker believes that contrary to popular belief, gold is positively correlated with the Indian stock market and can be more volatile, making it a less attractive investment option for diversification.

  • What advice does the speaker give for a disciplined approach to saving and investing?

    -The speaker advises saving one-third of one's take-home pay consistently over a 30-year career and investing in companies that are expected to compound strongly, emphasizing the importance of starting early and playing the long game.

  • How did the speaker perform during the market downturn in 2020?

    -The speaker's portfolio was up 55-56% in the large cap portfolio for the year ending March 2021, recognizing the market panic as an opportunity to invest and load up on stocks.

  • What is the speaker's strategy for allocating investments between different types of companies and geographies?

    -The speaker suggests allocating 30-40% of investments outside India (such as in the S&P 500), 35-40% in large cap, 20-30% in small cap, and the remaining in mid cap or as a safe harbor like FDs, emphasizing diversification and the importance of not being overly reliant on one type of investment.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Insights and Personal Investment Philosophy

The speaker discusses their skepticism about investing in gold, citing its lack of intrinsic value and volatility similar to the stock market. They share their experience as a celebrity fund manager, managing nearly a billion dollars, and their journey from reading about finance to becoming a successful investor. The speaker emphasizes the importance of investing in undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, using the example of GMM Foder, a company that saw a 4X return in a year due to increased demand during the pandemic. They also touch on the psychological aspects of investing, such as the tendency to chase past winners and ignore companies with stagnant stock prices despite growing profits.

05:01

🏠 Real Estate Valuation and Early Stock Market Investments

The speaker recounts their experience with real estate investment, noting the high rental yields and subsequent property price corrections in Mumbai. They describe their initial skepticism about the Indian property market in 2008 and how they capitalized on the market downturn. The speaker also shares their first foray into the stock market in 2012, driven by bonuses from their employer. They discuss the importance of investing during market downturns and the significant returns they achieved by investing in Templeton's small and midcap fund during India's economic slowdown.

10:02

🤑 Achieving Financial Independence Through Diversified Investments

The speaker outlines their approach to achieving financial independence, which includes a diversified portfolio with investments both within and outside India. They explain the rationale behind investing in the S&P 500 for diversification and the importance of investing in both large and small-cap stocks. The speaker also emphasizes the value of investing during market panics, as they did in March 2020, and the importance of knowing when to increase investments. They provide a breakdown of their personal investment allocation, suggesting a balanced approach to investing in different market segments.

15:03

💼 The Journey to Financial Independence and FIRE Number Calculation

The speaker discusses the concept of financial independence, defining it as not being reliant on a single source of income or employer. They share their personal journey to financial independence, which took approximately 20 years. The speaker also explains how they calculated their 'FIRE number,' which is the amount of money needed to retire comfortably without working for money. They consider factors such as living expenses, healthcare costs, and inflation to estimate a figure of 50 crores for a modest retirement lifestyle.

20:06

🚀 Strategies for Accumulating Wealth and Achieving FIRE Goals

The speaker provides advice for individuals looking to accumulate wealth and achieve financial independence. They suggest starting early, saving a significant portion of one's income, and investing in a disciplined manner. The speaker emphasizes the power of compounding, using the example of saving a small amount annually and watching it grow to a substantial sum over 30 years. They also address the challenges of starting late and offer strategies for making up for lost time, including increasing savings rates and focusing on high-growth investment opportunities in the latter part of one's career.

📚 Accessing Investment Wisdom Through Literature and Personal Finance

The speaker concludes the discussion by highlighting the importance of sharing investment knowledge through books and other mediums. They mention their own books, which are available online, as a resource for those who wish to learn more about investing. The speaker expresses hope that the audience has gained a deeper understanding of finance and investing through the conversation and encourages continued learning and application of these principles in personal finance.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Gold Investment

Gold investment refers to the act of buying gold as a store of value or as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. In the script, it is mentioned that gold has given upwards of 20% returns in the past year, but the speaker argues against investing in gold due to its lack of a real-world use or earnings to anchor its valuation, and its volatility compared to the stock market.

💡Returns

Returns in the context of the script refer to the profit or gain generated from an investment. The speaker discusses how gold has provided significant returns, but also emphasizes that the stock market, particularly through compounding, can offer higher returns over the long term.

💡Fire Number

Fire number, in the script, is used to denote the amount of money one needs to achieve financial independence, meaning the point at which one no longer needs to work for money. The speaker mentions that their fire number is close to 50 crores, indicating the financial goal they have set for themselves to retire comfortably.

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly traded companies are bought and sold. The script discusses the stock market's performance and the speaker's experience in investing in it, highlighting the importance of identifying undervalued and overvalued stocks for potential investment.

💡Compounding

Compounding is the process by which an investment's earnings are reinvested to generate additional earnings. The speaker emphasizes the power of compounding in growing wealth over time, especially in the context of stock market investments.

💡Rental Yield

Rental yield is the income generated from a property investment, expressed as a percentage of the property's value. In the script, the speaker uses rental yield as a method to evaluate property valuations, comparing it with home loan rates to predict market corrections.

💡Undervalued/Overvalued

Undervalued and overvalued are terms used to describe the relative worth of an investment compared to its market price. The speaker discusses the importance of identifying whether markets or specific stocks are undervalued or overvalued to make informed investment decisions.

💡Profit Compounding

Profit compounding is the growth of a company's profits over time, which can lead to an increase in the company's value if not immediately reflected in its share price. The script mentions a company where profits have continued to grow while the share price has remained stagnant, indicating an undervalued stock.

💡Behavioral Finance

Behavioral finance is the study of how psychological factors influence financial decisions. The speaker touches on common behavioral pitfalls such as chasing yesterday's winners and ignoring companies with stagnant share prices despite rising profits.

💡Financial Independence

Financial independence is the state of having enough wealth to live without the need for a regular job or salary. The speaker discusses achieving financial independence through a combination of savings, investments, and diversification of income sources.

💡Small Cap/Large Cap

Small cap and large cap refer to the market capitalization of companies, with small cap companies being smaller in size and large cap companies being more established. The script discusses the speaker's investment strategy, which includes a distribution of investments across small cap, large cap, and international markets.

Highlights

The speaker does not invest in gold and explains the reasoning behind it, including the lack of a fundamental barometer for valuation and the asset's volatility.

A discussion on the impressive returns of a stock that tripled in two years, demonstrating the potential of market investments.

The importance of investing in undervalued markets, as illustrated by the example of GMM Foder, which saw significant growth due to increased demand for pharmaceuticals.

The speaker's journey from being a mechanical engineer to a successful investor, emphasizing the value of continuous learning.

The impact of the book 'Coffee Can Investing' on the speaker's financial education and the influence it had on their investment philosophy.

The speaker's strategy for identifying profitable investment opportunities, focusing on companies with strong profit growth relative to their share price.

A detailed account of the speaker's first significant investment in the stock market, which led to substantial returns.

The concept of 'financial independence' and the speaker's personal journey to achieve it without reliance on a single source of income.

The speaker's perspective on the 'FIRE' (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement and their calculation of the financial number needed for retirement.

An analysis of market behaviors, such as the tendency of investors to chase past winners and ignore companies with consistent profit growth but stagnant share prices.

The speaker's experience with property investment in India, highlighting the importance of rental yield in property valuation.

A strategy for portfolio allocation, including the division between large-cap, small-cap, and international investments.

The speaker's advice for young investors on how to save and invest to achieve a financial goal of 10 crores by the age of 50.

The challenges of the speaker's toughest year in investing, which involved a significant market downturn and the importance of staying invested during such times.

The speaker's views on the role of narratives in the stock market and how they can lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of stocks.

A discussion on the importance of diversification in a portfolio, including the allocation to precious metals and their correlation with the stock market.

The speaker's experience with the COVID-19 market crash and the opportunities it presented for savvy investors to increase their positions.

The minimum investment requirement for the speaker's Portfolio Management Services (PMS) and advice for those who cannot meet this threshold.

Transcripts

play00:02

you do not invest in gold right and if

play00:04

you see last year gold has given upwards

play00:06

of 20% returns and you mentioned that

play00:09

your fire number is somewhere close to

play00:12

50 cror right it's not evident to me

play00:14

that anything less than 30 40 crores

play00:17

will allow you to have a decent

play00:18

retirement B Finance be backed up the

play00:20

truck the stock uh tripled in the next 2

play00:22

years right so how do you identify

play00:25

whether the markets are undervalued

play00:27

overvalued or do you not really care and

play00:28

you just invest whenever

play00:37

um most people know you you're a

play00:40

celebrity fund manager who is managing

play00:42

almost a billion dollars I myself began

play00:45

my financial Journey listening and

play00:47

learning from people like you I still

play00:49

remember reading your book coffee can

play00:50

investing 5 years back and that was a

play00:53

GameChanger in my entire journey of

play00:55

learning about Finance because see I was

play00:57

a mechanical engineer right most people

play00:59

assume that you know I was a CA or I was

play01:02

an MBA degree you know and people can't

play01:04

digest the fact that I just did

play01:06

mechanical engineering but the secret to

play01:08

that is listening and learning from

play01:10

people like you so thank you so much for

play01:12

pleas my pleasure so how many how many

play01:14

copies have has your book been sold I

play01:16

think officially the the publisher tells

play01:18

us something close to 100,000 but I

play01:20

100,000 copies yeah but in in Indian

play01:22

publishing if it's 10,000 10,000 is a

play01:24

best seller what is the most amount of

play01:27

money you've made in a single year right

play01:29

so was stock which quadrupled on us over

play01:32

the course of basically 12 months right

play01:34

so 4X in 12 months huh so I read an

play01:37

annual I started reading a few annual

play01:38

reports which were on my laptop and I

play01:40

read about a company called GMM foder

play01:44

right so I read that they make these

play01:46

ceramic vessels right much like a giant

play01:48

version of this coffee cup and in those

play01:50

vessels uh uh pharmaceutical products

play01:53

are made so I said this is insane I a

play01:56

world leader um and you know I looked on

play01:59

line they've been they've been making

play02:02

good good return on Capital return on

play02:04

capital is profits divided by how much

play02:07

money has been put in the company okay

play02:08

so I said not only World leading company

play02:10

highly profitable so so much like nobody

play02:12

ever got sacked for buying

play02:15

IBM nobody in the Pharma industry ever

play02:17

gets sacked for buying foder so we

play02:20

invested in GMM foder was one of our

play02:21

first stocks in our small cap portfolio

play02:24

um over the next 12 months GMM fer did

play02:27

all right right did all right I think we

play02:29

were up 20 or

play02:31

30% and then Co

play02:33

arrived right and then Co arrived and

play02:36

demand for pharmaceuticals obviously

play02:39

went through the roof demand for GMM

play02:40

fora went through the roof um and you

play02:43

made 4X on by by Autumn of 2020 by

play02:47

Autumn of 2020 uh the stock had gone

play02:50

into the stratosphere and once it went

play02:52

into the stratosphere we obviously cut

play02:54

the position back because if share

play02:56

prices are run up far more than profits

play02:57

you know it's time to pull the position

play02:59

back so we pulled the position back we

play03:00

still shareholders though and profit

play03:01

compounding has been Stell over the last

play03:03

3 years guess what the share price

play03:05

hasn't moved much in the last 3 years

play03:07

okay so perhaps time to remove no

play03:10

perhaps time to load up further profit

play03:12

profits have continued growing over the

play03:13

last three years but the share price has

play03:14

not share price hasn't moved because

play03:16

people people in the most people bought

play03:19

after the initial frenzy so people chase

play03:22

yesterday's winners right um so rather

play03:25

than buying HDFC bank today they will

play03:28

buy some stock which has gone up

play03:30

10x in the last two years like Nvidia or

play03:32

Tesla right absolutely right and that

play03:35

habit that human Habit to chase

play03:37

yesterday's winners where the winning

play03:40

has been out of all proportion with

play03:42

profit compounding right that habit is

play03:44

incredibly destructive as is the habit

play03:46

of ignoring companies where the share

play03:48

prices have the share prices have stayed

play03:51

constant or the share prices have indeed

play03:53

sunk even the profits are through the

play03:55

roof so at what age did you become a

play03:58

kodati and how did you do it yeah so we

play04:00

took our savings from from the UK we

play04:02

lived in the UK I lived in the UK for 17

play04:04

years we saved up some money created a

play04:06

company in London we sold that so we had

play04:08

a little bit more money we migrated to

play04:10

India and um and initially when I came

play04:14

to India this is 2008 May when I came to

play04:16

India I looked at property prices in

play04:18

Bombay and said this is just crazy it

play04:20

makes no sense right there easy way to

play04:22

figure out property valuation the world

play04:24

over right it works in New York Works

play04:25

can you can you elaborate so you

play04:27

basically take the rental yield of a of

play04:29

the property so in India most properties

play04:31

rental yield is two 2 to 3% right and

play04:33

you look at the home loan rate if the

play04:35

home loan rate is way above the rental

play04:36

yield you know there's going to be a

play04:38

correction a big correction reasonably

play04:40

quickly so when I came in May 2008 the

play04:43

rental yield was 2% rental yeld mean the

play04:45

total annual rent that you pay divided

play04:47

by the property Val absolutely bang on

play04:49

and I said this makes no sense so we

play04:50

waited Leman Brothers happened in

play04:52

America property prices fell by 40% in

play04:56

the next 8 n months in Mumbai okay so

play04:59

middle of was 2008 that's when you

play05:00

bought so rental Ys of 5% we bought uh

play05:04

we had some savings from the UK from

play05:05

selling that company we used that too by

play05:08

the by the flat so from that point in

play05:10

fortunately we've never had to pay a a

play05:12

mortgage so wait you had already a Cora

play05:15

before you came to in right yeah so but

play05:17

that went to buying a house no so you're

play05:19

not considering that yeah because so

play05:20

anything which goes into a business or a

play05:22

fixed asset it's not really money you

play05:24

can do much with right correct so the

play05:27

proper korti thing was when my uh first

play05:29

file employers started paying me nice

play05:31

bonuses and then I invested that in the

play05:34

stock market that's so 2012 is when I

play05:37

would say I started investing in the

play05:39

stock market properly so 2011 12 13 um

play05:43

we went through India went through an

play05:44

economic slowdown the RBI hiked rates

play05:46

some 10 or 11 times the uh the stock

play05:49

market tanked through 10 11 12 13 right

play05:52

all the way till uh Prime Minister Modi

play05:54

being declared the BJP candidate in the

play05:57

closing months of 13 the stock market

play05:58

was in a Downs swing so summer of 2012 I

play06:01

said was this economy to is is going to

play06:03

revive one day stock market is assuming

play06:06

that the economy will be tanked for a

play06:08

long time uh Temple tunel had a very

play06:10

good small and midcap fund at at that

play06:12

juncture so so I spoke to my better half

play06:16

and we put the best part of I think a

play06:18

couple of crores in Templeton small and

play06:20

midcap fund uh life being for it is it

play06:23

doubled in the next couple of years wow

play06:26

so two cres became four CR four cres in

play06:28

the space of a couple of years in a

play06:29

small and midcap fund so how do you how

play06:31

do you determine that like a lot of

play06:32

people when they invest in the stock

play06:34

market they're like you know is this the

play06:35

right time to invest which stock should

play06:37

I pick so how do you identify whether

play06:40

the markets are undervalued overvalued

play06:42

or do you not really care and you just

play06:43

invest whenever look at the growth in

play06:45

the company's profits if the profit

play06:47

growth is significantly faster than the

play06:51

share price growth for say 3 4 year

play06:53

period you know you're not going to go

play06:56

far wrong especially if it's a company

play06:57

with a strong history of good governance

play07:00

clean accounting dominant franchise if

play07:03

the profit growth is consistently faster

play07:06

than the share price growth you know

play07:07

that the stock is available cheap you

play07:09

load up as much as you can but is that

play07:11

possible that it's not it's it's so

play07:13

undiscovered that this company so let's

play07:14

take a company that everybody knows

play07:16

about where for four years profits have

play07:18

been compounding steadily at around 19

play07:21

20% the share price has done nothing

play07:23

over four years right what is this this

play07:24

is India's second largest company by

play07:26

market cap this is India's largest bank

play07:28

by market cap cap is called HDFC bank so

play07:31

on the one side people get OV excited so

play07:33

for example I would argue there's a good

play07:36

reason to believe people are over

play07:37

excited about Nvidia today why are they

play07:39

over excited because every man and their

play07:41

grandmother has heard about Ai and they

play07:44

believe boss AI

play07:47

NV right so so when people get into a

play07:50

narrative when they get into a narrative

play07:52

around a company then the stock loses

play07:55

all sight of profitability and the stock

play07:56

zooms into the stratosphere similarly

play07:59

there can a negative narrative so a lot

play08:00

of people for whatever reason right have

play08:03

got into negative narratives on HDFC

play08:04

bank right we what are the negative

play08:06

narrative negative narrative is about

play08:08

HDFC

play08:10

limited right so various negative

play08:12

narratives people have built most of the

play08:13

negative narratives haven't got any

play08:15

basis in fact similarly if I cast my

play08:18

mind back to May 2020 right in the early

play08:21

days of covid we first lockdown Bajaj

play08:24

finance stock down 65% in the preceding

play08:27

five months um and the whole world

play08:30

believing Bajaj Finance is going to get

play08:32

into a lot of trouble this is May 2020

play08:34

so we did the math we did the research

play08:36

and we said you know covid will end one

play08:38

day we don't know when it ends but given

play08:42

Bajaj finance's Financial backing given

play08:45

their the quality of their client base

play08:48

uh given their strength and underwriting

play08:51

if Bajaj Finance gets into trouble boss

play08:53

there's huge Armageddon for the

play08:56

financial system it's too big to fail

play08:58

it's too big to fail plus one one day

play08:59

covid will end we don't know when it

play09:01

will end this is at that time early May

play09:02

2020 looked very dark cuz nobody knew

play09:05

anywhere in the world what on Earth was

play09:06

going to happen and the Western media

play09:08

loves uh spinning scare stories around

play09:10

India um so we said baj Finance down 65%

play09:14

this company is one of the most

play09:15

successful businesses across all

play09:17

Industries in India let's back up the

play09:19

truck and we tripled our position in baj

play09:21

finance we backed up the truck the stock

play09:24

uh tripled in the next two years okay

play09:26

right so so so this aspect of investing

play09:29

is the hardest part right the easier

play09:31

aspect sharan is the start early play

play09:33

the long game play the play the drait

play09:36

game right consistent patient long-term

play09:38

company you do not invest in gold right

play09:41

and if you see last year gold has given

play09:43

upwards of 20% Returns what is the

play09:45

reason for that gold over long periods

play09:47

of time Selden gives you more than 89%

play09:50

in rupe terms right the Nifty gives you

play09:53

13 14% in rupe terms at least with the

play09:55

stock market you have some barometer

play09:57

which is earnings correct to figure out

play10:00

broadly you know what what is which

play10:02

direction I I should look at gold to you

play10:05

don't even have that you don't even have

play10:07

a underlying be uh underlying

play10:09

fundamental that you can track right you

play10:10

might say hey it's less volatile but

play10:12

that's not true gold is just as volatile

play10:15

as the Indian stock market so that

play10:16

argument is out of the window as well

play10:17

and the final reason you could think

play10:19

about buying gold is maybe you say boss

play10:21

this can give me diversification correct

play10:23

because negatively correlated but that

play10:25

even that's not true really so gold is

play10:27

positively correlated to the Indian

play10:28

stock market is more volatile than the

play10:30

Indian stock market and gives me lower

play10:32

returns than the Indian stock market so

play10:33

therefore to my mind it's a fetish

play10:36

that's interesting because I think the

play10:37

conventional wisdom is that whenever the

play10:39

markets are not working well put in the

play10:40

gold because gold goes up yeah but

play10:42

you're saying that if you actually look

play10:43

at the data the correlation is positive

play10:45

that's right and think about it right if

play10:46

every if everybody knows that

play10:47

conventional wisdom it ain't going to

play10:49

work and at the moment China has

play10:51

destroyed the gold Hedge for everybody

play10:52

the Chinese because of the troubles in

play10:54

their own country have loaded up so

play10:55

heavily on gold that it can't possibly

play10:57

be a hedge for anything for anyone

play11:00

is it not possible to know that last

play11:01

year gold is undervalued so might as

play11:03

well put in that and then write that's a

play11:05

rely point right where asset has a real

play11:07

world use for example this real estate

play11:10

has a real world use so you can use the

play11:12

real world cash flows to form some sort

play11:15

of anchor on the valuation the rental

play11:17

yield right for this property correct

play11:19

stock market May the stock earnings or

play11:22

cash flows can be a real world anchor to

play11:24

the share price but with gold or with

play11:27

Platinum for that matter uh or with any

play11:29

precious metal that real world anchor is

play11:32

hard to find right like cryptocurrency

play11:35

so what is the highest cagr that you

play11:38

have generated in any given year by end

play11:40

of March when the stock market the

play11:42

Indian stock market was around I think

play11:44

25 or 30% by the end of March

play11:46

2020 uh several stocks in our portfolio

play11:49

were

play11:49

down uh down 30 40% that's when we

play11:52

realize this a huge opportunity to make

play11:54

money so we organized a conference call

play11:57

right for the whatever 300 400 people

play11:59

people we knew then and we told them uh

play12:02

that this is a great time to invest the

play12:03

market is overdoing the Panic the year

play12:06

ending march 21 I think we were up 55 or

play12:09

56% in the large cap portfolio one year

play12:13

one year yeah 55% yeah and perhaps a

play12:15

little bit more in the uh small cap

play12:18

portfolio wow um uh but then there were

play12:21

there were there's been the other side

play12:22

as well right and this is why uh knowing

play12:25

when to load up further is even more

play12:26

important than enjoying your successes M

play12:29

so so our toughest year was the 15

play12:33

months between Jan

play12:36

2022 till March 23 right that 15 months

play12:39

was the toughest year because we were

play12:41

down 15% almost all our portfolios fell

play12:43

15% in the space of 15 months and

play12:45

profits of the companies were going up

play12:48

okay but we broadly knew that that what

play12:50

was happening was the Federal Reserve

play12:52

kept hiking rates I think the hi rates

play12:54

4% in 15 months and the rupee kept

play12:58

falling so rupee fell from $ 72 to the

play13:00

do to $82 to the do in 12 months or so

play13:03

obviously as the rupee kept falling

play13:04

foreign investors kept pulling out we

play13:06

kept telling our clients that look

play13:07

foreigners are leaving because the rupe

play13:08

is falling when the rupee stabilizes

play13:10

this will be fine the client who loads

play13:12

up at times like that obviously makes

play13:15

more money compared to the client who

play13:17

runs away right so this is the piece

play13:19

which is very hard to train right load

play13:21

up when everybody else is heading for

play13:23

the exit but load up rationally now when

play13:26

it comes to equity which is the stock

play13:28

market how how do I know how to divide

play13:30

the money between large companies

play13:31

mediumsized companies or maybe outside

play13:33

of India how do I decide that proportion

play13:35

right so let's do the outside India

play13:36

versus inside India first so the way

play13:39

we've done it for ourselves in the

play13:40

office and we've created something

play13:42

called Global Compounders because of

play13:44

this is and we' figured out between 30

play13:46

to 40% of our expenditure is on imported

play13:49

items right if you invest in let's take

play13:52

S&P 500 is to keep it simple right

play13:54

that's the Nifty of uh the Nifty of

play13:56

America if you invest in the Nifty of

play13:57

America there's a diversification

play13:59

benefit you get out of doing that so

play14:02

just to use 2020 for an example when we

play14:04

have elections in India the American

play14:05

Stock Market is not going to wubble

play14:07

right when they have elections in

play14:08

America in November the Trump versus

play14:10

Biden election our stock market is not

play14:12

going to wobble so in these two markets

play14:13

is where the real wealth is getting

play14:15

created then we come to large cap versus

play14:16

small cap so 66% is Left Right 66% is

play14:20

left out of this the majority close to

play14:22

35 40% is in our large cap product right

play14:25

okay I have roughly 20 20 rupees out of

play14:28

my 100 rupees of savings in our small

play14:30

cap product right so in I in my book

play14:32

coffee can investing I have said you

play14:34

should consider between 20 to 30% of

play14:36

your savings in in small cap in fact

play14:39

there's a chapter in coffee can

play14:40

investing called small is beautiful if

play14:42

you buy too much of this right this is

play14:44

more volatile than large caps of course

play14:47

right so so small caps rally more they

play14:49

correct more and most people will bail

play14:52

out of small cap Investments at the

play14:54

worst possible time and they will not

play14:56

top up their small cap Investments

play14:58

exactly when they should given those

play15:00

behavioral deficiencies I suggest keep

play15:03

your small cap allocation to 30 or below

play15:05

I have chosen 20 to 30 so 33% goes

play15:08

outside India which is the US right

play15:10

another 30% goes into large cap right

play15:14

another 20% goes into small cap so

play15:17

another the remaining 10 15% is M cap 10

play15:20

15% is the is the is the Safe Harbor

play15:22

right so so right so say remember thatd

play15:25

FD that are set aside so you didn't

play15:27

mention a midcap then a large cap

play15:28

portfol consistent compound is is large

play15:30

and mid so I'm just using large and mid

play15:32

as one area because the more bitty you

play15:33

have one large care fund one mid care

play15:35

fund one small care fund it ends up

play15:37

becoming harder and harder to keep track

play15:38

of it so would you call yourself

play15:41

financially independent there are two

play15:43

ways to think about financially

play15:44

Independence one is the the way you said

play15:46

right how much money do you need to say

play15:48

I can walk away from working I can walk

play15:50

away from working the other is to say

play15:52

that I can earn that money through a

play15:56

variety of means and I'm not independent

play15:58

I'm not dependent on one source of

play16:00

income one employer yeah right uh if you

play16:03

ask me it took me roughly 20 years to

play16:05

reach that stage in life you're not

play16:06

reliant on an employer to cut a salary

play16:09

bonus check for you yeah and say you

play16:12

know I am your uh Garden master I did a

play16:14

little bit of reading uh about your one

play16:17

of your previous interviews and you

play16:19

mentioned that your fire number is

play16:21

somewhere close to 50 cres right right

play16:24

and fire number for the audience meaning

play16:25

you don't have to work for money anymore

play16:27

so how do you you come across how do you

play16:30

calculate that 50 CR number um so if you

play16:32

sort of think about middle class Indian

play16:35

life right middle class I mean sort of

play16:36

holidays to UTI and Missouri rather than

play16:38

holidays to Dubai and London middle

play16:41

class Indian life is roughly 50 lakhs

play16:43

per anom gross right and net of tax say

play16:45

30 lakhs perom right you mean like

play16:47

expenditure expenditure but would you

play16:49

consider this as middle class like 50

play16:50

lakhs of earnings in a year if it brings

play16:53

me 35 lakhs grow you know we we try to

play16:56

live modestly but I think below 35 lakhs

play16:58

R is a little tough in a city like

play17:00

Bombay I agree that is true so so I

play17:02

think in a city like Bombay 35 lakhs

play17:04

especially if you have a family and all

play17:06

of that right now if you retire at 60

play17:08

and say survived till 85 you know live

play17:10

for 25 years then the maths is pretty

play17:12

clear then I need roughly 20 crores in

play17:15

today's money right how old are you

play17:17

today so I'm 48 so you have 12 years

play17:20

yeah so assume I retired at 60 but the

play17:23

cost of living is going to go up in this

play17:25

12 years right for example my employer

play17:28

Mar we provide Health cover of 10 lakhs

play17:31

to our employees right so when we

play17:33

initially started providing this four

play17:34

years ago I thought was 10 lakhs though

play17:36

you know who will need 10 lakhs

play17:37

increasingly I'm see seeing every year

play17:39

out of say our 100 employees at least

play17:41

two to three hit that number right and

play17:44

when I talk to recently invested in a

play17:47

Bangalore based Hospital chain when I

play17:49

talk to the owners of that they're

play17:51

saying 10 lakhs is not a big deal you

play17:53

know if you get some serious illness

play17:54

today God forbid 10 lakhs is breach just

play17:56

like that so again keeping all of that

play17:58

in mind right keeping how quickly the

play18:00

cost of healthare is rising how quickly

play18:03

the cost of imported goods are rising um

play18:06

it's not evident to me that anything

play18:07

less than um anything less than 30 40

play18:11

crores will allow you to have a decent

play18:13

retirement for a comfortable retirement

play18:15

my number

play18:16

is 50 crores and I'm again I stress I'm

play18:19

not talking about some luxurious

play18:20

retirement I'm talking about a pretty

play18:22

modest retirement suppose you tell me

play18:24

sharan that n Boss 35 lakhs I don't need

play18:27

net of tax I only need 17 lakhs even

play18:31

then when you retire or when I retire

play18:33

you need something between 20 to 30

play18:35

crores now for most people watching the

play18:37

show are they don't even have one CR in

play18:39

their bank account right so if I were to

play18:41

ask you a question from their lens that

play18:44

let's say I'm a 25 early 30 year old

play18:48

person making about 1 lakh rupees a

play18:50

month and I want to achieve 10 crores by

play18:54

the time I turn let's say 50 how should

play18:57

I go about investing right so just to

play19:00

just to keep it simple suppose you earn

play19:02

6 lakhs a year and assume conservatively

play19:05

that you can only save one lakh right in

play19:08

a year one lakh in a year right for some

play19:10

reason assume you start work at 25 26

play19:13

right that first year you save a couple

play19:15

of laks that itself at the by the age of

play19:19

55 60 that Itself by the age of 55 60

play19:22

will be close to 30 uh close to 60 lakhs

play19:24

right two lakhs at the age of 25 become

play19:27

60 lakhs by the time you're hitting

play19:29

retirement because you've compounded at

play19:31

15% kagar 15% compounded over 30 years

play19:34

right now if a person keeps doing this

play19:37

in a disciplined fashion right say

play19:38

onethird of their take-home pay onethird

play19:41

of their take-home pay they keep saving

play19:43

through a 30-year career they will hit

play19:45

the 10 CR number quite comfortably right

play19:48

and and that's the hard part in savings

play19:50

right you got to play a long game which

play19:52

is why Rahul draid is my favorite

play19:54

cricketer and you got to be you got to

play19:57

be consistent in your savings

play19:59

now let's assume you haven't done that

play20:01

last 10 years you you're saying I'm not

play20:03

a drait I'm going to be a Dy I'm going

play20:05

to hit it out of the park in the last 10

play20:07

years I'm going to finish strong well if

play20:08

that's the case then in that last 10

play20:11

years you could have save 30 40% of your

play20:13

money and you got to do what I call

play20:16

coffee can investing aim for investing

play20:18

in companies that are going to compound

play20:20

for you strongly in that last 10 years

play20:22

of your life but the sooner you start

play20:24

the better it is if you start at the age

play20:26

sharan heg red coffee can investing

play20:28

perfect interesting but s before we end

play20:31

this conversation for someone to get the

play20:34

benefits of your investing skills they

play20:36

need to have minimum 50 lakhs to invest

play20:38

in one of your PMS it's se's rule it's

play20:40

not a marcela's rule SE rule that 50

play20:42

lakhs has to be the minimum for a PMS so

play20:44

but if somebody still wants to kind of

play20:47

uh you know um get the benefits of an

play20:49

investor like you what can they do like

play20:51

what can they do to invest look I mean

play20:53

we've tried to describe everything I

play20:55

know in the books that we write right so

play20:57

there are five books all available

play21:00

online fantastic thank you so much s it

play21:02

was wonderful wonderful discussing with

play21:04

thank you so much for inviting I hope um

play21:06

the audience were able to understand

play21:08

most of the things we're talking about I

play21:09

personally enjoyed it and it was quite a

play21:12

deep Finance discussion usually we don't

play21:14

go this deep you know because we think

play21:15

that you know will it be too technical

play21:17

for the audience I'm sure I'm sure given

play21:19

that you explained things in a much more

play21:21

Lucid manner than I did I'm sure it'll

play21:22

find an audience thank you for much

play21:23

thank you so much

play21:28

[Music]

Rate This

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

相关标签
Investment StrategiesMarket InsightsFund ManagerStock MarketFinancial AdviceWealth CreationRetirement PlanningPortfolio ManagementEconomic SlowdownProfit Compounding
您是否需要英文摘要?