Tom Lee: “This Will be the LAST Opportunity of 2024”
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis video, Tom Lee's bold predictions for the year's end are highlighted, with a $150,000 target for Bitcoin and a 5800 S&P 500 index forecast. Morgan Stanley's price target for Nvidia is raised from $116 to $144, anticipating better-than-expected earnings. The video discusses market sentiment, the potential for a Bitcoin rebound post-Mt. Gox distributions, and emphasizes the importance of staying invested rather than timing the market, supported by historical data on earnings and market performance.
Takeaways
- 💡 Tom Lee predicts $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, despite its current price in the 60s.
- 📈 Tom Lee also forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 5800 by the end of the year.
- 🚀 Morgan Stanley raised Nvidia's price target from $116 to $144, a 24% increase.
- 📊 The new price target for Nvidia is based on an estimated 45% revenue growth over the next five years.
- 💼 Nvidia's market dominance and lack of strong competition are key factors supporting its projected growth.
- 🗣️ Tom Lee argues that $6 trillion in sidelined cash will drive market gains as investors seek to avoid missing out on returns.
- 📉 Lee emphasizes that missing the top 10 best days in the market significantly reduces investment returns.
- 💵 Tom Lee believes that the strong earnings and fundamentals of big companies will continue to support market growth.
- 🛑 Market crashes typically occur when there's widespread euphoria, not when there is cautious sentiment.
- 🔮 Bitcoin's potential sharp rebound in the second half of the year is partly due to the resolution of the Mt. Gox issue.
Q & A
What is the new price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year according to Tom Lee's prediction?
-Tom Lee predicts a new price target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year.
What is the new price target for Nvidia set by Morgan Stanley, and what is the percentage increase from the previous target?
-Morgan Stanley has set a new price target for Nvidia at $144, which is a 24% increase from their previous target of $116.
What is the basis for Morgan Stanley's increased price target for Nvidia?
-Morgan Stanley believes that Nvidia's earnings will be better than expected, which justifies the higher price target.
How does the video creator interpret the basis for the increased price target for Nvidia in terms of revenue growth?
-The video creator interprets the increased price target as a prediction of 45% revenue growth for Nvidia over the next five years, up from the previous estimate of 40%.
What is the key question regarding Nvidia's future according to the video?
-The key question is how long Nvidia will remain a quasi-monopoly in its industry, as this will affect its revenue growth and market position.
What is Tom Lee's prediction for the S&P 500 index by the end of the year?
-Tom Lee predicts that the S&P 500 index will reach 5,800 by the end of the year.
What does Tom Lee suggest about the performance of the stock market for the remainder of the year?
-Tom Lee suggests that the second half of the year will be good for stocks, though not as strong as the first half, and that the market will build upon the gains already made.
What is the significance of the '$6 trillion on the sideline' mentioned by Tom Lee?
-The '$6 trillion on the sideline' refers to a large amount of capital waiting to enter the market, which could exert upward pressure on stock prices as investors seek to avoid missing out on gains.
How does the video creator view the current market sentiment in relation to market crashes?
-The video creator believes that markets do not crash when people are expecting a crash; they crash when there is widespread euphoria and the belief that the market cannot go down.
What is the video creator's stance on the predictions for Bitcoin and the S&P 500?
-The video creator seems to agree with Tom Lee's predictions, citing the current market sentiment, strong earnings, and the potential for Bitcoin to be part of the monetary system as reasons to support these predictions.
What historical perspective does the video creator provide on the importance of staying invested in the market?
-The video creator emphasizes that timing the market is not a good idea and that staying invested is better, as missing the best 10 days in a year can significantly reduce investment returns.
Outlines
🚀 Market Predictions and Nvidia's Price Target Increase
This paragraph discusses the recent financial market developments, including Tom Lee's bold predictions for Bitcoin and the S&P 500, and the new price target set by Morgan Stanley for Nvidia. Tom Lee, who appeared on CNBC, predicts that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year, a significant leap from its current value. Additionally, he forecasts a 5800 target for the S&P 500, indicating continued bullish sentiment. Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Nvidia from $116 to $144, a 24% increase, based on expected earnings growth. The analysis suggests that Nvidia's market dominance and potential for revenue growth justify the higher price target, although the sustainability of this dominance is a key consideration.
📉 Tom Lee's CNBC Insights and Market Sentiment
In this paragraph, the focus is on Tom Lee's insights shared during his CNBC appearance. He reiterated his bullish stance on the market, predicting a strong second half of the year for stocks, despite acknowledging it may not be as robust as the first half. Lee emphasized that the S&P 500 is on track to reach 5800 by year-end, which would represent a 20% total return. He also touched on the pressure faced by wealth managers who have missed out on significant gains in the past two years, highlighting the potential for a market rebound driven by these sidelined funds. Lee's comments on Bitcoin suggest an expectation of a sharp rebound in the second half of the year, supported by the resolution of the Mt. Gox distribution issue.
🤔 Reflections on Market Predictions and Investment Strategies
The final paragraph offers a personal reflection on the market predictions made by Tom Lee and the current state of the financial markets. It discusses the importance of considering market sentiment, earnings growth, and the potential for Bitcoin to become an established part of the monetary system. The speaker argues that while market timing is often challenging, staying invested in the market is generally more beneficial than attempting to time market movements. They also highlight the significance of earnings growth for major companies and the potential for the S&P 500 to continue its upward trajectory. The paragraph concludes with a reminder of the historical performance of the stock market and the importance of long-term investment strategies.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tom Lee
💡Bitcoin
💡S&P 500
💡Nvidia
💡Morgan Stanley
💡Price Target
💡DCF Calculator
💡Monopoly
💡Fear and Greed Index
💡Earnings
💡IPO Activity
Highlights
Tom Lee predicts a $150,000 Bitcoin price by the end of the year, a significant increase from its current value.
Morgan Stanley raises its price target for Nvidia from $116 to $144, a 24% increase based on expected earnings growth.
The new price target for Nvidia implies a 45% revenue growth over the next five years, up from the previous 40% estimate.
Nvidia's market position as a quasi-monopoly in its industry is a key factor in the revised price target.
The sustainability of Nvidia's market dominance against potential competitors is a critical question for its future growth.
Tom Lee's CNBC appearance discusses the S&P 500 reaching 5,800 by year-end, indicating a continued bullish market trend.
Lee's prediction of a strong second half for stocks, despite not being as explosive as the first half, builds on existing market gains.
The potential impact of $6 trillion in sidelined capital on market pressure and upward movement is highlighted.
The pressure on wealth managers to perform and not underperform the market benchmark is discussed in the context of market participation.
Tom Lee's historical accuracy with market predictions, including correctly forecasting the S&P 500 levels for 2023 and 2024, is noted.
The rarity of the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs simultaneously is mentioned as a market indicator.
The importance of staying invested rather than timing the market is emphasized, with historical data showing the risks of missing out on gains.
Tom Lee's bold Bitcoin prediction is analyzed in the context of the cryptocurrency's integration into the monetary system and Wall Street.
The potential for a sharp rebound in Bitcoin's value in the second half of the year is suggested, following the resolution of major overhangs.
The concept that markets typically do not crash when there is widespread fear, but rather during periods of euphoric sentiment, is discussed.
Strong earnings reports from major companies are presented as a fundamental factor supporting the market's all-time highs.
The comparison of current market conditions with the dot-com bubble, particularly regarding IPO activity, is used to assess market health.
A reminder of the long-term benefits of consistent investment in the market, rather than attempting to time market movements, concludes the video.
Transcripts
it's July 1st you have a new Target for
the end of the year
um well folks we had an amazing weekend
I hope you had as well there's a lot
that happened in the meanwhile in the
stock market in the financial World Tom
Lee was on CNBC again leaving the entire
speechless panel speechless again and we
have Nvidia getting a new prize Target
from organ Stanley which is absolutely
out of the stratusphere now as always in
all my videos there's no BS which means
you get the bottom line first I know you
guys are busy not everybody has 15
minutes to watch the entire freaking
video so here is the bottom line for
those who are in a hurry number one Tom
Le predicts
$150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of this
year that is absolutely insane given the
fact that the Bitcoin price is now at
the 60s insane also predicting a 5800 on
the S&P 500 also a new priz Target for
NVIDIA from Morgan Stanley raising it
from $ 116 to
$144 that's a 24% increase that's just
the bottom line in case you needed that
you're free to go no hard feelings at
all as long as you enjoy the video I'm
good with that now for those who
actually want to watch the entire video
sit back relax don't click nothing don't
smash nothing don't buy nothing just
listen so let's start with the price
Target first now Morgan Stanley had $116
per share on Nvidia which is kind of
high it's not one of the lowest ones
months and they got it overweight but
now they have raised it to
$144 which is a 24% increase and the
basis for this assumption is not so much
Market sentiment they actually gave a
pretty good reason IR rationale that
makes sense to me they basically said
look the fact that the earnings are
estimated to be X and we think that the
earnings are going to be X Plus why
basically allow us to provide a higher
price Target essentially what Morgan
Stanley is here to tell
is that they feel that the earnings are
going to be better than expected for
NVIDIA and that's why the company and
the stock deserve a higher price Target
now I actually broke it down in my DCF
calculator in stock MVP and this is what
I found so the Curr price target of
Nvidia for Mor Stanley was
$116 that was based of a roughly 40%
Revenue growth for the next 5 years at a
10% weighted average cost of capital at
a 10% discount so given that that price
Target was based on these numbers we can
infer that that $144 is based on a 45%
Revenue growth for the next five years
so essentially what Morgan Stanley are
saying to us is that they feel that the
earnings of Nvidia will grow not at 40%
per year for the next 5 years but rather
at 45% now for a company like Nvidia
it's a very interesting debate but it
comes down to one simple question how
long will Nvidia Remain the quasa
Monopoly in this industry right now they
are literally the only shop in town
there's so much demand they don't have
enough Supply they can literally charge
whatever they want it's almost like this
drug trafficker you know what I mean
whatever the price is it's going to be
bought so this is the situation right
now and that's why you're seeing all
this Revenue Spike that's going
parabolically but the big question about
Nvidia is how long will this situation
continue how long until competitors come
in and take a bite out of nvidia's
Market it hasn't happened yet we don't
have anything on the radar that's about
to Dethrone the h200 or even the blackw
so right now it's not there the question
is does it happen in the next 5 years
because if it doesn't happen in the next
5 years the 45% Revenue growth for the
next 5 years actually makes sense but if
a competitor will come in and take a
bite out of nvidia's business then we
might not see 45% we might see 30% or
25% it all comes down to do you believe
that Nvidia is going to remain this
somewhat Monopoly in this market in 2020
9 yes or no if you believe that that's
the case Morgan Stanley actually makes a
lot of sense if you don't this is a
price Target that's not for you very
simple now Tomley was also in CNBC again
and he was talking about Bitcoin and the
S&P 500 two things that I think you're
all are interested in it's July 1st you
have a new Target for the end of the
year um 2025 earnings look a lot
stronger than we thought at the start of
the year I'd say between now and your
end stocks should be higher I mean we
we've had a strong first half already
and second half won't be as strong as
the first half but we should build upon
those gains so yeah it looks pretty good
so 5,800 for the year what would that be
the total return of it's 15 now so yeah
that's you know it's a little bit more
than 20% Which would be after last
year's 24 24 that's a couple years no
one really expected I don't think that
that's right I mean that's painful for
people who've been sitting in cash for
years earning 5% because they missed out
on a 50% gain and that's 10 years worth
of sitting on cash so I think the end of
this year is a little bit of a Day of
Reckoning for those who said oh I'm I'm
happy with my Six Trillion in cash
earning 5% now he basically said look I
hit the target on my expectations
already twice you know back in the day
when it was 2022 and everybody said that
S&P 500 is going to just come down in
2023 it's going to be a horrible year
and it was 38 00 I said we're going to
hit 4,800 by the end of 2023 everybody
said I'm a permeable they laughed me out
of the Town etc etc etc lo and behold we
end the year at 4,800 I was right people
come back to me they ask me again and
they say well Tom what's going to be the
price target for 2024 on the S&P 500 how
much we going to end that year at and I
said 5200 that's another 400 points from
4,800 to 5200 people said that was too
high because we're already peing now
we're at 5,500 with 300 points past pass
my bullish prediction from January so
I'm here again to actually tell you what
I think is going on with the market and
he said look the second half of the
market is going to be good probably not
as good as the first half so don't
expect another explosion like we had in
the first half but it's going going to
be good it's not going to be bad now
what he actually said is this 5800 on
the S&P 500 by the end of the year which
means a 20% year on the S&P 500 after we
had a 25% year last year that's a
bullish cycle that a lot of people are
complaining about right now a lot of
people who have left this Market in 2022
thinking that we're headed down the hill
so to speak in the decline pattern
theyve missed out on 25% last year and
right now they're on track to miss
another 20% this year now this is the
point where I want to explain what
Tomley is talking about Tomley always
says this number and he said it in this
interview again there's $6 trillion
dollar part on the sideline and that's
going to put a lot of pressure out Wards
for the market to keep going up what
he's actually saying here it's a point
that was I think made very well by Josh
Brown which I also showed you a couple
weeks ago Josh Brown who actually
manages money for other people he came
on the show on CNBC and explained look
guys you have people who are very well
compensated you know they drive Bugattis
Ferraris you know porsa they have
beautiful homes in the Hampton so
they're very well compensated they're
very wealthy but they're employees at
the end of the day they manage very
ultim ultimately very rich people's
money and their only job is not to lag
the indicator not to lag The Benchmark
now if they're lagging it a little bit
that's fine but if you manage money for
somebody that's a billionaire and you
missed out on 25% last year because you
went out of the market and you got them
5% instead of
25% okay and now second year straight
you're about to miss a 20% year still
sitting at 5% what's going to happen to
your job people have a job to do and
that job is to earn a return on the
capital that's been entrusted with them
and that is a huge driver in the second
half of the year in both directions
right so so we saw a wash out in
September of October or October of 2022
this is the reverse version of that now
you have the Dow the NASDAQ and the S&P
500 as of noon today all making all-time
highs together it's a fairly rare
phenomenon but when it's taking place
and you're out of the market and or
underweight it's deafening you cannot
sit there and watch that go on and not
just because you feel a certain way but
there's an agency problem in investing
which is when you're running money for
other people they have expectations and
one of those expectations is you better
not Trail the SPX and obviously that
means that your head is literally on the
chopping block and as we go closer and
closer towards the end of the year when
it's going to be tested these people are
feeling the pressure and they're feeling
the urge to get back in this market to
minimize the losses they've caused to
their clients because missing out on 25
and 20% years consecutively is going to
be devastating for their careers and for
their clients now another thing that Tom
Lee talked about is Bitcoin going to
$150,000 by the end of the year it's
currently at
$63,000 that's a major increase he's
saying look it's going to be a sharp
Rebound in Bitcoin in the second half of
the Year Tom Le is going to be
absolutely right about the 5500 why is
he still saying 150 for Bitcoin why do
that why not just focus on stock don't
stick your neck out because it was
falling below 60,000 now it's back to
almost 63,000 so that Six Trillion we
just talked about that sort of plays
into your Bitcoin thesis that's right
bitcoin's probably suffering from the
mount gaau you know but starting
distributions in July that was a huge
overhang for many years but if I was
invest in crypto knowing that one of the
biggest overhangs is going to disappear
in July I think it's a reason to
actually expect a pretty sharp Rebound
in the second half so I think you know
150 is still within it's already July 1
so that's that's so you're not taking
that off the table that's still
possibility that's right and you know
one thing to keep in mind Bitcoin makes
most of its gains within with 10 days
every year if you take out the 10 best
days in a single year Bitcoin actually
has negative returns so Tomley is
basically saying here that Bitcoin is
literally going to double within the
next 6 months if that happens a lot of
people will make a lot of of money but
the ones who will try to guess the
bottom and try to guess the top and time
this thing they're going to miss out on
most of these profits the same thing
like they have in stocks time in the
market is way better than timing the
market now where do I stand on both
these predictions the Bitcoin prediction
and the S&P 500 prediction Bitcoin to
150k S&P 500 to 5800 by the end of the
year now look when I look at the fear
and greed index I'm seeing neutral
borderline fear markets don't crash when
people are expecting crash markets crash
when everybody's euphoric where the
sentiment is that the market that this
Market can't go down it's just too hot
when this happens when you have
exuberance when you have Euphoria you'll
see that I'm going to be fearful not
when everybody's anxious and worried
another thing is look we have great
earnings we have great earnings we don't
have an earnings decline the earnings of
these big companies are absolutely
insane look over the past 75 years I've
mentioned this before we had 1250 the
all-time highs in the market that's 16
times per year that we hit an all-time
high I'm not freaked out when I see the
market hit an all-time high especially
if the Baseline fundamentals like the
earnings are great now so far we had 20%
from November 20121 in this AI bull
cycle craziness 20% I mean the average
bull cycle in the US market is about
100% 110% we're not even close Nvidia
forward p is below 50 the Russell 2000
median p is 11 I mean really are we that
worried about it um look another 300
points on the S&P 500 which is what Tomy
is predicting is 5 and a half% now
that's 5 and a half% on the index when I
look at a stock like a paler which I own
that's a three beta stock which means
that he's predicting another 15% by the
end of the year on paler I'll take it
now look I get nervous when the
sentiment on the street is euphoric I
don't get nervous when everybody's
panicking and worried that the market is
going to CR Ash I just don't especially
when the forward PE ratio is actually
down on the S&P 500 last year we had 26
forward PE this year the 4p on the S&P
500 is 22 earnings went so up that the p
ratio actually went down in 1999 it was
33 especially when they look at IPO
activity and they see that in 1999 just
before the Doom crash we had 400 IPOs
per year in 2021 we had 1,500 or
something like that this year we're on
pce to do 150 IPOs that's it look the
top 1% of investors and I've showed this
in the previous video they take 12 years
to trade their entire portfolio to turn
over the entire thing there's no need
for you to be super active just stay the
course it's that simple if you put in
$15,000 in the s&p500 in 2010 not that
long ago and you added another $500 per
month you would be sitting on $200,000
right now about 880,000 of it will be
your money put in through those 500
15,000 but 120,000 is basically free
it's from the market it's not that
complicated and Tom Le is Right Bitcoin
is actually not that crazy to see at
150,000 maybe not by the end of the year
but it's definitely part of the monetary
system I don't know about the other
coins I will say nothing about the other
coins but Bitcoin is part of the
monetary system it's part of Wall Street
it's not going anywhere 150,000 at some
point it's going to get there probably
not 6 months but it will be there and by
the way Tom Le is actually 100% right
from 2003 to 2023 if you miss the best
10 days in 20 years the best 10 days in
20 years
your investment will be slashed by half
because timing the market is simply not
a good idea I hope you enjoyed this
video I'll see you the next
one later
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