France's Insane Election Results Explained

Summary

The French legislative elections' first round saw Marine Le Pen's National Rally leading and Macron's Ensemble a distant third. With a high turnout and an even vote split, the second round promises to be chaotic, with a record number of three-way and four-way runoffs. The outcome hinges on potential alliances to counter Le Pen, amid a generational divide and unprecedented high stakes for Macron's coalition.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ France held the first round of legislative elections with high voter turnout, setting the stage for a potentially chaotic second round.
• 🏆 The National Assembly elections utilize a two-round system where deputies are elected from single-member constituencies.
• 🥇 Marine Le Pen's National Rally led the first round, with Macron's Ensemble coming in third, indicating a significant shift in political dynamics.
• 🔄 The results shattered norms, with the National Rally winning more votes than any party in the first round of national elections.
• 👵👴 A generational divide is evident, with the National Rally favored by older voters and the New Popular Front Coalition by younger ones.
• 📊 The election saw an unprecedented number of 'triangular' runoffs due to the even split of votes and high turnout.
• 🤝 The final outcome may hinge on whether Macron and the left can form an anti-Le Pen alliance to prevent the National Rally from gaining a majority.
• 📉 Macron's Ensemble had its worst performance ever, raising questions about the decision to call snap elections.
• 📈 The polarizing nature of the election significantly boosted turnout to 67%, the highest since 1986.
• 🔍 The lack of a clear tactical voting coalition between Macron's Ensemble and the New Popular Front Coalition could benefit Le Pen.
• 📚 The script also promotes a magazine offering in-depth analysis of French and European elections, with a focus on the UK election.

Q & A

What event took place on Sunday in France as mentioned in the script?

The first round of the ongoing legislative elections took place in France.

Which party topped the polls in the first round of the legislative elections?

Marine Le Pen's National Rally came out on top in the first round.

How did Macron's party perform in the first round of the legislative elections?

Macron's party, En Marche, came a distant third in the first round.

What is the significance of the high turnout and even vote split in the first round?

The high turnout and even vote split set the stage for the most chaotic second round in the history of the Fifth Republic.

How many deputies are there in the National Assembly of the French Parliament?

There are 577 deputies in the National Assembly.

What is the minimum number of seats required for a majority in the National Assembly?

A majority requires 289 seats in the National Assembly.

What is the electoral system used for electing deputies in France?

Deputies are elected via a two-round system where if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two candidates go through to the second round.

What was the date for the second round of the legislative elections following the first round on Sunday?

The second round was due on July 7th, 2024.

How did the results of the first round reflect a generational divide in French politics?

The results showed that the New Popular Front is most popular with 18-34 year olds, the National Rally with 34-74 year olds, and Macron's Coalition with over 75s.

What was unprecedented about the number of triangular runoffs in the second round?

There were 306 three-way runoffs and even five four-way runoffs, which is unprecedented and the previous record for triangular runoffs was 105 in 1997.

What is the big question following the first round of elections according to the script?

The big question is whether Macron and the left will form an anti-Le Pen Alliance before the second round.

What was the turnout percentage in the first round of the legislative elections, and how does it compare to previous years?

The turnout was at 67%, which is up nearly 20 points from 2022 and the highest figure since 1986.

How did the National Rally's performance in the first round compare to historical results?

This was the National Rally's highest vote share in a national election and they actually won more votes than any party has received in the first round of either a presidential or legislative election.

What was the position of the New Popular Front (NFP) regarding the triangular runoffs?

The NFP vowed to pull out of any triangular runoff where they were in third place, not giving a single vote to the National Rally.

What is the potential impact of a lack of a tactical voting coalition between Macron's party and the NFP?

A lack of a tactical voting coalition could be good news for Le Pen, as it might lead to a more fragmented vote and potentially allow the National Rally to gain more seats.

What are the implications of the chaotic nature of the election for France's political landscape?

The chaotic nature of the election implies that the final result is very much up for grabs and could significantly alter France's political landscape.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ French Legislative Elections: A Chaotic Second Round Ahead

The first round of France's legislative elections saw the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen take the lead, with President Macron's Ensemble coming third. The high voter turnout and an even split of votes have set the stage for a potentially chaotic second round. The elections for the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament, require a majority of 289 seats out of 577. Deputies are elected through a two-round system, with a runoff if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The unusual outcome of the first round, with the National Rally winning 38 seats outright and a significant generational divide in political preferences, has led to a situation where Macron's coalition faces its worst performance ever. The high stakes of the second round, scheduled for July 7th, are underscored by the need for tactical alliances to prevent the National Rally from gaining an absolute majority.

05:02

🔍 Unprecedented Triangular Runoffs and Political Maneuvering

The second paragraph delves into the unprecedented nature of the current French legislative elections, with a record number of triangular runoffs—306—and even five four-way runoffs. The majority of these are between the National Rally, the New Popular Front (NFP), and Macron's Coalition, with some also involving the Republicans. The high voter turnout, the highest since 1986, has amplified the impact of the vote split. The NFP has pledged to avoid any runoffs where they are in third place, effectively refusing to support the National Rally. The focus now is on whether Macron will reciprocate with a tactical voting coalition against the National Rally. The lack of clarity on this front at the time of writing is advantageous for Le Pen. Even if an agreement is reached, it may not be effective due to potential preferences of Macron's right-leaning voters and NFP's anti-establishment voters for the National Rally over their respective coalitions. The outcome is highly uncertain, promising to be one of the most chaotic elections in France's modern history.

Keywords

💡Legislative Elections

Legislative elections are the process by which members of a legislative body are chosen. In the context of the video, it refers to the elections for the National Assembly of France, which is the lower house of the French Parliament. The video discusses the first round of these elections and the implications of the results for the second round.

💡National Rally

The National Rally, previously known as the National Front, is a political party in France led by Marine Le Pen. The video highlights the party's strong performance in the first round of the legislative elections, coming out on top and winning the most seats outright in the first round.

💡En Marche!

En Marche!, or 'On the Move!', is a centrist political party in France founded by Emmanuel Macron. The video describes how Macron's party performed poorly in the first round of the legislative elections, coming in a distant third, which raises questions about his political strategy.

💡Two-Round System

A two-round system is an electoral procedure used in many countries, including France, where two rounds of voting are held if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. The video explains how this system applies to the election of deputies to the National Assembly and the implications of the results for the second round.

💡Majority

In the context of the video, a majority refers to the requirement of winning more than half of the votes in an election. The script mentions that 289 out of 577 seats are needed for a majority in the National Assembly, and the implications of not achieving this in the first round of elections.

💡Turnout

Turnout refers to the percentage of eligible voters who cast their ballots in an election. The video notes the high turnout in the first round of the legislative elections, which was nearly 20 points higher than in 2022, contributing to the chaotic nature of the second round.

💡Triangular

In the French electoral context, a 'triangular' refers to a runoff election where three candidates are competing. The video discusses the rarity of such situations and the unprecedented number of triangulars resulting from the 2024 legislative elections.

💡Generational Divide

The term 'generational divide' in the video refers to the significant differences in political preferences among different age groups in France. Exit polls showed that the National Rally was most popular with older voters, while the New Popular Front was favored by younger voters, illustrating the generational split in French politics.

💡Snap Elections

Snap elections are elections that are called earlier than the scheduled date. The video mentions Macron's decision to call snap legislative elections, which has been questioned in light of the poor performance of his party in the first round.

💡Tactical Voting

Tactical voting is when voters choose to support a candidate they do not necessarily prefer in order to prevent another candidate from winning. The video discusses the possibility of Macron and the New Popular Front forming a tactical voting coalition against the National Rally in the second round of elections.

💡New Popular Front

The New Popular Front is a left-wing coalition in French politics. The video describes its strong performance in the first round of the legislative elections, winning a significant share of the vote and forming potential alliances or rivalries with other parties in the second round.

Highlights

France held the first round of legislative elections with the National Rally leading and Macron's Ensemble coming in third.

High voter turnout and an even vote split are setting the stage for a chaotic second round.

The National Assembly elections use a two-round system with 577 deputies and a majority threshold of 289 seats.

In the first round, if no candidate wins a majority, the top two and others with at least 12.5% of votes advance to the second round.

The second round of elections is scheduled for July 7th, with a potential for up to eight candidates to advance in a single constituency.

Three-candidate runoffs, known as 'triangulars,' are rare due to mathematical reasons and the typical low voter turnout.

Centrist parties traditionally benefit from the system as voters from eliminated parties often support them in the second round.

Macron's coalition and Mélenchon's left-wing alliance both had similar vote shares in the first round, but diverged in the second.

The National Rally won the highest vote share in a national election, shattering norms and signaling a generational divide.

Macron's coalition had its worst performance ever, questioning the decision to call snap elections.

The polarizing nature of the election significantly boosted turnout to 67%, the highest since 1986.

An unprecedented number of triangulars occurred, with 306 three-way runoffs and even five four-way runoffs.

Most triangulars are between the National Rally, NFP, and Macron's Coalition, with about 30 involving the Republicans.

The final result may depend on whether parties can form an alliance to counter the National Rally.

Mélenchon has stated the NFP would pull out of any triangular where they are third, not giving any votes to the National Rally.

Macron's stance on forming a tactical voting coalition against the National Rally remains vague.

A potential alliance between Macron and the NFP may not work due to voter preferences for the National Rally over either.

The election is set to be one of the most chaotic in France's modern history with an uncertain outcome.

The magazine 'Too Long' offers in-depth journalism on the French and European elections, with a focus on the UK election.

The magazine is available in standard and premium editions, with the latter offering additional perks like a behind-the-scenes podcast.

Transcripts

on Sunday France went to the polls for

the first round of the ongoing

legislative elections and while the

results broadly reflected the polls with

the Pen's National rally coming out on

top and macron's ensom coming a distant

third the high turnout and relatively

even vote split means that we're now set

for the most chaotic second round in the

history of the fifth Republic so in this

video we're going to explain what

happened on Sunday why these results are

utterly insane and why the big question

now is whether macron and the left form

an anti- Leen

[Music]

Alliance before we start if you haven't

already please consider subscribing and

ringing the bell to stay in the loop and

be notified when we release new

videos so to understand quite how Wild

these results are you need to know how

these elections work the elections

happening now for the National Assembly

the lower House of the French Parliament

there are 577 deputies in the assembly

so 289 seats are required for a majority

and each Deputy represents a single

member constituency now importantly

deputies are elected via a two round

system If no candidate wins a majority

of votes in the first round the top two

candidates as well as anyone who receive

votes equivalent to at least 12.5% of

registered voters go through to the

second round where whoever gets the most

votes wins what happened on Sunday was

the first round and the second round is

due this Sunday on July 7th now in

theory eight candidates could go through

to the second round in a single

constituency if there was 100% turnout

and the vote was perfectly split between

the eight candidates with 12.5% each in

practice though most of the time only

two candidates go through the second

round and three candidate runoffs known

in France as a triangular are pretty

rare now this is for pretty obvious

mathematical reasons for the past few

elections turnout has hovered around 50

% which means that in the median

constituency three candidates all need

to get above 25% of the vote for a

triangular to occur and votes are rarely

this evenly distributed but on top of

this when three candidates do go through

the least well-placed candidate often

steps aside to stop the vote from being

split to give you a sense of quite how

rare these triangulars are in 2017 there

was one and in 2022 there were only

eight the other thing need to understand

about this system is that it's

traditionally benefited Centrist parties

because even if they don't win in the

first round they generally do better in

the second round as voters from the

parties that didn't make it through lend

their votes to the cists as their least

unpopular option for instance if you're

a right-wing voter whose party didn't

make it through the second round you

might vote for the centrists in order to

stop the left and if you're a leftwing

voter whose party didn't make it through

you also might vote for the cist to stop

the right

this is why in 2022 macron's Centrist

Coalition and John Luke melanson's

leftwing Alliance both won nearly

exactly the same fraction of the popular

vote in the first round 25.8% and

25.7% while in the second round macron's

Coalition won 39% of the votes and 245

seats while the left won just 32% of the

vote and 131 seats however on Sunday

both of these Norms were shattered

according to final results the vote was

relatively evenly split between Marine

leen's National rally Le Coalition who

won 33% of the vote the left-wing new

popular front coalition who won 28% of

the vote and macron's Coalition who won

21% the national rally came first in 51%

of constituencies the NFP came first in

26% and macron's Coalition came first in

just 10% furthermore the national rally

won 38 seats outright in the first round

the NFP 32 and macron's Coalition won

just two these results lay bare a

glaring generational divide in French

politics according to exit polls the NFP

is by far in away the most popular party

with 1834 year olds while the national

rally are the most popular with 34 to 74

year olds and macron's Coalition are the

most popular with the over 75s while

this is broadly in line with the

pre-election polls it's nonetheless both

a phenomenal result for the national

rally and a pretty terrible result for

macron's Coalition by historical

standards not only is this the national

Rally's highest vote share in a national

election but they actually won more

votes than any party has received in the

first round of either a presidential or

legislative election conversely it's

macron's worst performance ever and it

seriously calls into question his

decision to call Snap elections on top

of that it seems like the polarizing

nature of the election the left sphere

of the national rally and the right

sphere of the NFP significantly boosted

turnout which came in at

67% up nearly 20 points from 2022 and

the highest figure since 1986 this

combination of a three-way split in the

vote and high turnout has given way to

an unprecedented number of triangulares

with 306 three-way runoffs and even five

four-way runoffs the vast majority of

these triangulars are between the

national rally NFP and macron's

Coalition but about 30 year between the

national rally the the NFP and the

Republicans who won about 7% of the

popular vote this is utterly

unprecedented though the previous record

for triangular was 105 in 1997 which

fell to just 79 after 26 candidates

withdrew and the last time there was a

four-way runoff was way back in

1973 this also means that the final

result depends more than ever on whether

or not the various parties and

especially the NFP and macron can strike

a deal to squeeze out the national rally

in the immediate aftermath of the

results Shan L melanon came out and said

that the NFP would pel out of any

triangular where their third place

vowing not a single vote for the

national rally this means that the big

question is whether macron will return

the favor and form a tactical voting

coalition against the national rally but

so far they've been a bit vague on the

issue while the Prime Minister encourage

tactical voting in order to quote

prevent the national Rally from having

an absolute majority in the second round

macron himself only called for voters to

Rally behind candidates who are quote

clearly Republican and Democratic which

doesn't obviously include all of the NFP

and his Finance Minister said that melan

Sean's France unbowed one of the more

radical parties in the NFP are as

dangerous as the national rally while a

deal might be agreed by the time this

video goes out the lack of one at the

time of writing is good news for Le Pen

and even if macron and the NFP do come

to some sort of agreement it's not clear

it will necessarily work this is because

many more right-leaning macron voters

might actually prefer the national rally

to the NFP and many more

anti-establishment NFP voters might

actually prefer the national rally to

macron whatever happens this looks set

to be the most chaotic election in

perhaps France's modern history and

everything is very much up for grabs if

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