Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex

Summary

In this script, Archie Cochrane's story during WWII illustrates the pitfalls of the 'God complex'—the unwavering belief in one's infallible solutions. Cochrane, a POW doctor, discovered marmite's curative properties through trial and error, challenging the complex. The speaker advocates for humility, experimentation, and learning from failure as essential for solving complex problems, using examples from evolution to economics, emphasizing the need to abandon overconfidence in our understanding.

Takeaways

• 🕰️ The story is set during World War II in a German prison camp where Archie Cochrane, a prisoner and doctor, faces a medical mystery.
• 🤕 Archie is dealing with an unknown illness causing severe fluid retention among prisoners, and he himself is affected.
• 💡 In a resourceful move, Archie smuggles vitamin C into the camp and later acquires marmite, rich in vitamin B12, on the black market.
• 📚 Archie conducts an informal clinical trial by dividing prisoners into two groups, one receiving vitamin C and the other vitamin B12, meticulously documenting the results.
• 🔑 The trial reveals that marmite, with its vitamin B12 content, is the cure for the illness, and Archie confronts the German captors with this evidence.
• 🌏 A young German doctor recognizes the importance of Archie's evidence, leading to the provision of vitamin B12 and the recovery of the prisoners.
• 👨‍⚕️ Archie Cochrane's life work was a fight against the 'God complex' in professionals, which is the unwavering belief in one's own infallible solutions to complex problems.
• 🧠 The speaker emphasizes the importance of humility and the trial-and-error method in problem-solving, especially in the face of complex systems.
• 🌟 The speaker uses the example of the human body's evolution and industrial processes like detergent production to illustrate the effectiveness of trial and error.
• 📉 The U.S. economy's success is attributed to its high business failure rate, which paradoxically indicates rapid evolution and adaptation through trial and error.
• 🏫 The speaker calls for a change in educational practices to acknowledge that not all problems have definitive answers and to embrace the trial-and-error approach.
• 🗳️ The speaker challenges the idea of politicians and leaders who claim to have all the answers, advocating instead for those who embrace uncertainty and are willing to test and learn.

Q & A

What was the problem Archie Cochrane faced in the German prison camp during World War II?

Archie Cochrane, a prisoner of war and a doctor, faced the problem of prisoners suffering from a debilitating condition characterized by horrible swelling of fluids under the skin. He was unsure whether it was an infection or related to malnutrition, and he didn't know how to cure it.

What was Archie Cochrane's initial approach to treating the illness in the prison camp?

Archie Cochrane smuggled vitamin C into the camp and later managed to get supplies of marmite, a rich source of vitamin B12, on the black market. He divided the prisoners into two groups, giving one group vitamin C and the other vitamin B12, and meticulously noted the results.

How did Archie Cochrane's experiment with vitamins lead to the resolution of the illness?

After a few days of administering vitamins to the prisoners, it became clear that marmite, which was rich in vitamin B12, was the cure for the illness. Cochrane then approached the German camp authorities with his findings.

What was the turning point that led to the German camp authorities providing vitamin B12 to the prisoners?

A young German doctor reviewed Archie Cochrane's exercise book containing the evidence from his experiment. He convinced his colleagues that not supplying vitamins to the prisoners would be considered a war crime, leading to the delivery of vitamin B12 to the camp.

What is the 'God complex' as described in the script?

The 'God complex' refers to an overwhelming belief in one's infallibility in providing solutions to problems, regardless of their complexity. It is characterized by a conviction that one understands the workings of the world, even in the face of incredible complexity.

Why did the speaker choose to tell the story of Archie Cochrane?

The speaker chose to tell the story of Archie Cochrane not just to highlight his resourcefulness but also to illustrate the dangers of the 'God complex' and the importance of evidence-based problem-solving.

What is the significance of the graph produced by physicist Cesar Hidalgo mentioned in the script?

Cesar Hidalgo's graph, which analyzed over 5,000 different products using network analysis, is significant because it demonstrates the complex interconnections and relationships between different products, offering a more nuanced understanding of economic growth.

How does the speaker describe the complexity of modern economies in comparison to societies in which our brains evolved?

The speaker describes modern economies as incredibly complex, with billions of products and services, compared to the approximately 300 products and services in societies where our brains evolved, which could be counted in just a few minutes.

What is the alternative problem-solving approach the speaker suggests instead of relying on the 'God complex'?

The speaker suggests an approach based on humility, abandoning the 'God complex', and using trial and error as a problem-solving technique, which has been successful in various complex systems, including biological evolution and industrial processes.

Can you provide an example of how trial and error was used in an industrial context as described in the script?

The script provides the example of Unilever's process of designing a nozzle for their detergent production. They used a trial and error method, creating random variations of the nozzle, testing them, and keeping the one that worked best, iterating this process until they achieved an optimal design.

What is the role of failure in the success of the U.S. economy as presented in the script?

The script suggests that the high failure rate of American businesses, with 10% disappearing every year, indicates a rapid evolution and adaptation, contributing to the U.S. economy's status as the world's greatest economy.

What did Archie Cochrane's trial on heart attack recovery reveal about the biases of medical professionals?

Archie Cochrane's trial revealed that medical professionals, suffering from the 'God complex', were biased towards believing that hospitals were the best place for recovery. Cochrane's method of presenting preliminary results in a misleading way exposed their willingness to accept unchallenged opinions.

What lesson can be learned from the story of Japanese mathematician Yutaka Taniyama as mentioned in the script?

The story of Yutaka Taniyama teaches us about the difficulty of embracing uncertainty and the importance of making mistakes in a constructive direction. Despite his significant contributions, Taniyama's inability to prove his conjecture and the pressure of perceived failure led to his tragic end.