Fim da Guerra na Ucrânia: Como Manter a Liderança dos EUA no Mundo

Summary

In this insightful conversation, Jeffrey Sax and Glen discuss the ongoing Russia-West conflict, highlighting NATO's role in exacerbating tensions and the missed opportunities for peace during the post-Cold War era. Sax emphasizes how the West’s failure to honor commitments regarding NATO expansion and its hegemonic security mindset led to the current war. He critiques the lack of meaningful diplomacy in Europe and argues for a peace agreement that addresses both Russian and Ukrainian security concerns, proposing neutrality as a viable solution for Ukraine. Sax also highlights the failure of Western leaders to engage in serious reflection on collective security.

Takeaways

• 😀 NATO's post-Cold War expansion contributed significantly to escalating tensions with Russia, contradicting earlier promises made to Moscow.
• 😀 The idea of Ukrainian neutrality, similar to Austria's status during the Cold War, could provide a long-term solution to the conflict in Ukraine.
• 😀 The West's refusal to consider Russia's security concerns and its failure to create a neutral, stable Europe have played a major role in the ongoing crisis.
• 😀 The collapse of the Soviet Union presented a historic opportunity to dismantle NATO, but Western leaders opted for expansion instead, leading to current geopolitical instability.
• 😀 Europe's failure to create an independent security framework post-WWII has left it dependent on U.S. protection, stifling the development of robust European diplomatic solutions.
• 😀 The lack of leadership in Europe today is evident, with figures like Macron and others failing to offer any structured ideas about European security and diplomacy.
• 😀 The U.S.'s role as a hegemonic power has perpetuated an unbalanced global order, sidelining multipolarity and creating tensions with Russia and other countries.
• 😀 The absence of serious diplomatic engagement with Russia—especially avoiding talks with key figures like Lavrov—has worsened the situation and closed potential avenues for peace.
• 😀 A multipolar world, where power is distributed more evenly, could offer a solution, but Western reluctance to consider this alternative has fueled global instability.
• 😀 The ongoing war and the lack of substantive peace talks are a result of Western governments prioritizing ideological competition over practical, diplomatic solutions.

Q & A

What is the main breakthrough in the U.S. and Russia's diplomatic approach to the war in Ukraine?

The main breakthrough is that Trump and American negotiators have explicitly stated that the goal is a peace agreement, not a ceasefire. This requires a deeper understanding of the conflict’s causes, especially the role NATO enlargement played, pushing both the U.S. and Russia to address these issues for a lasting peace.

How does Jeffrey Sax view NATO's role in the Ukraine conflict?

Jeffrey Sax argues that NATO’s enlargement, particularly eastward expansion, played a significant role in provoking the conflict. He suggests that NATO's actions, which were seen as hegemonic, contributed to Russia's security concerns, which ultimately led to the war.

What does Sax believe is the key to Ukraine's security moving forward?

Sax believes that Ukraine’s true security lies in neutrality. He points to countries like Finland and Austria, which remained neutral during the Cold War and faced little to no interference from the Soviet Union or Russia, as examples of how neutrality can serve as an effective security guarantee.

What does Sax propose as the solution to Ukraine’s security concerns?

Sax proposes that Russia itself could be one of the guarantors of Ukraine’s peace and security, alongside other major powers like the U.S., U.K., and France. He suggests that the UN Security Council should oversee any security agreement, offering independent monitoring and accountability.

Why does Sax criticize the U.S. approach to diplomacy in the current conflict?

Sax criticizes the U.S. approach for being disconnected from historical perspective and diplomacy. He describes the U.S. government as having 'amateurs' in charge of foreign policy, lacking the deep historical knowledge and perspective necessary for effective peacebuilding.

How does Sax describe the current state of European diplomacy regarding the Ukraine conflict?

Sax is highly critical of European diplomacy, describing it as unsophisticated and primitive. He laments the lack of leadership and structured ideas on European security, pointing out that European leaders are relying heavily on the U.S. and not engaging in direct dialogue with Russia.

What historical context does Sax believe is essential to understanding the Ukraine conflict?

Sax stresses the importance of understanding the historical backdrop, particularly the unfulfilled promises made by the West after the Cold War, such as NATO’s expansion despite assurances that it wouldn’t. He also highlights the missed opportunity in 1945 to create a neutral, demilitarized Germany, which could have prevented the Cold War.

What does Sax think is the role of NATO in the post-Cold War world?

Sax believes NATO’s expansion, especially its role in undermining a collective European security architecture, has contributed to tensions in the post-Cold War era. He suggests that a truly post-Cold War system should have prioritized collective security rather than the hegemonic approach represented by NATO.

How does Sax view the broader geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Russia?

Sax sees the conflict in Ukraine as symptomatic of a larger struggle between the U.S. and Russia, where the U.S. has sought to extend its influence through NATO, while Russia perceives this as an existential threat. He believes this is a result of a failure to establish a mutually acceptable post-Cold War order.

What is Sax's view on the potential for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict?

Sax believes that a peaceful resolution is possible, but it requires an acknowledgment of the root causes of the war, including the role of NATO and Western provocations. He advocates for a neutral, security-guaranteed Ukraine, with a security arrangement monitored by the UN Security Council to ensure peace.