How Elon Musk solves problems: First principles thinking explained | Lex Fridman Podcast Clips
Summary
TLDRThe speaker emphasizes the importance of first principles thinking in problem-solving, particularly in engineering and design. They advocate for a physics-based approach, ensuring solutions align with fundamental laws. By breaking down problems to their most basic elements and reasoning from there, one can identify inefficiencies and innovate. The transcript discusses applying this method to manufacturing, cost reduction, and supply chain optimization, highlighting the need to challenge conventional methods and strive for the 'platonic ideal' of a product.
Takeaways
- 🔬 **First Principles Thinking:** The speaker emphasizes the importance of first principles thinking in problem-solving, breaking down complex issues to their fundamental truths and reasoning up from there.
- 🚀 **Applying Physics:** The speaker suggests that any technology problem should be analyzed with respect to the laws of physics, ensuring that solutions do not violate fundamental principles like conservation of energy or momentum.
- 🔍 **Thinking in Limits:** The concept of thinking about problems in the limit, such as scaling to a very large or small number, is highlighted as a method to understand the underlying reasons for issues like cost or design inefficiencies.
- 🏭 **Manufacturing Challenges:** The speaker points out that bringing a product to volume manufacturing can be more difficult than designing it, highlighting the underrated complexity of manufacturing.
- 💰 **Cost Analysis:** The script discusses analyzing costs by considering the raw material value of a product and the theoretical minimum cost, which can help identify inefficiencies in the manufacturing process.
- 🔧 **Design for Manufacturing:** The speaker suggests that focusing on reducing complexity in design can lead to cost reductions, especially when unit volume is low, as is common in industries like rocketry.
- 🔬 **Material Considerations:** The importance of considering the weight and raw material value of the constituent elements in a product is mentioned to set an asymptotic limit for cost reduction.
- 🤖 **Innovative Manufacturing:** The script touches on the idea of innovating in manufacturing to approach the raw material value plus intellectual property licensing costs as the asymptotic cost of any product.
- 🛠️ **Tool and Method Dependency:** The speaker warns against the risk of relying too heavily on familiar tools and methods, which might not lead to the optimal product design.
- 💡 **Theoretical Perfect Product:** The concept of envisioning the 'platonic ideal' of a perfect product and then figuring out how to achieve it is presented as a powerful tool for innovation.
- 🔄 **Iterative Improvement:** The script suggests that the definition of the perfect product is dynamic and will evolve as more is learned, implying an iterative process of improvement.
Q & A
What is the fundamental approach to problem-solving as described in the script?
-The fundamental approach to problem-solving described in the script is first principles thinking, which involves breaking down a problem to its most basic, axiomatic truths and reasoning up from there.
What does the speaker mean by 'physics is law and everything else is a recommendation'?
-The speaker implies that the laws of physics are absolute and must be adhered to in any technology problem, whereas other guidelines or rules can be bent or broken.
How does the speaker suggest using physics in problem-solving?
-The speaker suggests using physics by ensuring that solutions do not violate fundamental principles such as the conservation of energy or momentum, and by thinking about problems in the limit, such as scaling up or down to understand the impact on the problem.
What is the significance of considering the cost of raw materials in the context of product design?
-Considering the cost of raw materials helps to establish an asymptotic limit for how low the cost of a product can be, which can guide the design process towards minimizing costs without changing the materials used.
What is the concept of 'thinking in the limit' as it applies to manufacturing?
-The concept of 'thinking in the limit' involves considering the extreme cases, such as scaling the production volume to a very high number, to understand the fundamental reasons behind the cost of a product and to identify if economies of scale are the issue.
Why is volume manufacturing considered more challenging than the initial design of a product?
-Volume manufacturing is more challenging because it requires not only a good design but also the ability to produce the product at scale efficiently, which involves overcoming complexities in supply chain, materials, and manufacturing processes.
What is the 'magic one number' mentioned in the script and what does it represent?
-The 'magic one number' represents the lowest possible cost of manufacturing a product if you had the raw materials and could rearrange the atoms into the final shape with a magic wand, ignoring all other costs.
How does the speaker suggest approaching the design of a complex system like TeslaBot?
-The speaker suggests using first principles thinking to simplify the design of a complex system, starting from the raw material value and intellectual property licensing costs, and then figuring out how to shape the atoms to achieve the desired product.
What is the 'platonic ideal' of a product according to the script?
-The 'platonic ideal' of a product refers to the theoretical perfect arrangement of atoms that would result in the best possible product, which serves as a target for the design process.
Why is it important to consider both the tools we have and the theoretical perfect product when designing?
-It is important to consider both because it allows for a balance between practical constraints and the pursuit of optimal solutions, preventing one from falling into the trap of inertia and using only familiar tools and methods.
How does the speaker view the relationship between manufacturing and the cost of a product?
-The speaker views manufacturing as a critical factor in determining the cost of a product, suggesting that with excellent manufacturing capabilities, it is possible to produce anything at a cost that approaches the raw material value plus necessary intellectual property licensing.
Outlines
🔬 First Principles Thinking in Engineering
The speaker emphasizes the importance of using first principles thinking to approach engineering problems, such as those encountered in the development of SpaceX's Starship. This method involves breaking down issues to their most fundamental truths and reasoning up from there, ensuring no violation of physics laws like conservation of energy or momentum. The speaker also discusses the value of thinking about problems in extremes, such as scaling production to a million units per year to understand the true drivers of cost. This approach helps identify if high costs are due to design inefficiencies rather than low production volumes.
🤖 Reducing Manufacturing Costs Through Innovation
The speaker discusses a conversation with Jim Keller about the potential for reducing the cost of manufacturing Tesla's humanoid robots, known as Teslabot. The focus is on applying first principles thinking to identify the most cost-effective manufacturing processes. The speaker suggests that by understanding the raw material value of a product and any necessary intellectual property costs, one can set an asymptotic limit for how low the cost can go. The challenge is then to innovate manufacturing processes to approach this limit, simplifying the assembly of components and rethinking traditional methods to achieve the 'platonic ideal' of the perfect product.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡First Principles Thinking
💡Physics
💡Manufacturing
💡Volume
💡Supply Chain
💡Cost of Materials
💡Asymptotic Limit
💡Platonic Ideal
💡Inertia
💡Economies of Scale
💡Intellectual Property
Highlights
The importance of adhering to the laws of physics when solving engineering problems.
Introduction of 'first principles thinking' as a fundamental approach to problem-solving.
The concept of breaking down problems to their most basic, axiomatic truths for foundational reasoning.
Using physics tools like conservation laws to establish the possibility of a solution.
The technique of thinking about problems in the limit to understand scalability and fundamental costs.
The manufacturing challenge of taking advanced technology products to volume production.
Analyzing cost drivers by considering hypothetical high-volume production scenarios.
The idea that design complexity often contributes to high costs in manufacturing.
The impact of unit volume on the cost of goods, especially in industries like rocketry.
The process of evaluating manufacturing costs beyond economies of scale.
Incorporating supply chain and material costs into first principles reasoning for manufacturing.
The strategy of calculating the raw material value of a product to set cost limits.
The 'magic one number' concept for determining the lowest possible cost of a product.
A discussion on the cost reduction potential of manufacturing Tesla's humanoid robot, Teslabot.
The value of manufacturing expertise in reducing costs to approach raw material values.
The approach of starting with the 'platonic ideal' of a product and working backward to achieve it.
The risk of falling into the trap of using familiar tools and methods instead of innovating.
The necessity of thinking in both directions: with existing tools and towards the theoretical perfect product.
The dynamic nature of the 'perfect product' concept as knowledge and understanding evolve.
The powerful tool of first principles thinking in approximating a more perfect product.
Transcripts
can you uh then zoom back in to specific
problems with starship or any
engineering problems you work on
can you try to introspect your
particular biological neural network
your thinking process and describe how
you think
through problems the different
engineering and design problems is there
like a systematic process you've spoken
about first principles thinking but is
there kind of process to it well um
you know i like saying like like physics
is law and everything else is a
recommendation
um like i've met a lot of people who can
break the law but i haven't met anyone
who could break physics
so
uh so first for you know any kind of
technology problem you have to sort of
just make sure you're not
violating
physics um
and
you know uh
first principles analysis i think is
something that can be applied to really
any walk of life uh anything really it's
just it's it's really just saying um
you know let's let's boil something down
to the most fundamental uh
principles the things that we are most
confident are true at a foundational
level
and that sets you at your sets your
axiomatic base and then you reason up
from there and then you cross check your
conclusion against the the axiomatic
truths
um
so
um you know some basics in physics would
be like are you violating conservation
of energy or momentum or something like
that you know then
you're it's not gonna work
um
so
uh that's you know so that's just to
establish is is it is it possible
and then another good physics tool is
thinking about things in the limit if
you if you take a particular thing and
you
uh
scale it to a very large number or to a
very small number how does how do things
change
um well it's like tempo like in number
of things you manufacture or something
like that and then in time
yeah like let's say say an example of
like um
like manufacturing which i think is just
a very underrated
problem um
and and
uh likes it it's it's much harder to
take
an advanced technology product and bring
it into volume manufacturing than it is
to design it in the first place my
orders magnitude so
um
so let's say you're trying to figure out
is
um like why is this
this uh
part or product
expensive is it um
because of something fundamentally
foolish that we're doing or is it
because our volume is too low and so
then you say okay well what if our
volume was a million units a year is it
still expensive that's what i'm thinking
about things than the limit if it's
still expensive at a million units a
year then volume is not the reason why
your thing is expensive there's
something fundamental about design
and then you then can focus on the
reducing complexity or something like
that and change the design to change
changes apart to be something that is uh
not fundamentally expensive
but like that's a common thing in
rocketry because the the unit volume is
relatively low and so a common excuse
would be well it's expensive because our
unit volume is low
and if we were in like automotive or
something like that or consumer
electronics then our costs would be
lower and like i'm like okay so let's
say we skip now you're making a million
units a year is it still expensive if
the answer is yes
then
uh
economies of scale and not the issue
do you throw
into manufacturing do you throw like
supply chain you talked about resources
and materials and stuff like that do you
throw that into the calculation of
trying to reason from first principles
like how we're gonna make the supply
chain work here
yeah yeah and then the cost of materials
things like that or is that too much
exactly so um like another like a good
example of thinking about things uh in
the limit
is
um if you take any uh
you know any any
product any machine or whatever um
like take a rocket or whatever uh and
say
uh if you've got if you look at the room
raw materials in the rocket um so you're
gonna have like uh
aluminum steel titanium inconel
uh especially specialty alloys
um
copper and and you say what are the
how
what's the weight of the constituent
elements of each of these elements and
what is their raw material value
and that sets the
asymptotic limit for how
low the cost of the vehicle can be
unless you change the materials
so
and then when you do that i call it like
maybe the magic one number or something
like that so that would be like if you
had the
you know
like just a pile of these raw materials
here and you could wave magic wand and
rearrange the atoms into the final shape
that would be the
lowest possible cost that you could make
this thing for unless you change the
materials
so then and that is always a you're
almost always a very low number
so then the what's actually causing
things to be expensive is how you put
the atoms into the desired shape
yeah i actually if you don't mind me
taking a tiny tangent i had a i often
talked to jim keller who
that worked with you oh yeah
jim was uh yeah good did great work at
tesla
so
um i suppose he carries the flame with
the same kind of
thinking that you're you're talking
about now
um and i guess i see that same thing at
tesla and
and uh spacex folks who work there they
kind of learn this way of thinking and
it kind of becomes obvious almost
but anyway i had um argument not
argument
uh he educated me
about
how cheap it might be to manufacture
teslabot we just we had an argument what
is how can you reduce the cost the scale
of
producing a robot because if i gotten a
chance to interact quite a bit um
obviously in in the academic circles
with humanoid robots and then boston
dynamics and stuff like that and they're
very expensive to to build and then uh
jim kind of schooled me on saying like
okay like this kind of first principle
is thinking of how can we get the cost
of manufacturing down
um i suppose you do that you have done
uh that kind of thinking for teslabot
and for all kinds of
all kinds of complex systems that are
traditionally seen as complex and you
say okay how can we simplify everything
down
yeah
i mean i think if you are really good at
manufacturing
you can basically
make at high volume you can basically
make anything for a cost
that asymptotically approaches the raw
material value of the constituents plus
any intellectual property that you need
to license
anything right
but it's hard it's not like that's a
very hard thing to do but but it is
possible for anything
anything in volume can be made of like i
said for a class
that asymptotically approaches raw
material uh constituents
plus intellectual property license
rights
so what will often happen in trying to
design a product is people will start
with the tools and and parts and methods
that they are familiar with
and then
and try to create a product using their
existing tools and methods
the other way to think about it is
actually imagine the try to imagine the
platonic ideal of the perfect
product or technology whatever it might
be
and so what is this what what is the
perfect arrangement of atoms
that would be the the best possible
product
and now let us try to figure out how to
get the atoms in that shape
i mean it sounds um
and it's almost like a rick and morty
absurd until you start to really think
about it and
you really should
think about it in this way because
everything else is kind of uh
if if you think uh
you you might fall victim to the
momentum of the way things are done in
the past unless you think in this way
well just as a function of inertia
people will
want to use the same tools and methods
that they are familiar with
um
they just that's what they'll do by
default
yeah um and then that that will lead to
an outcome of things that can be made
with those tools and methods but it is
unlikely to be the um platonic idea of
the perfect product
um
so
then
so that's why it's good to think of
things in both directions they're like
what can we build with the tools that we
have but then but but also what is the
what is the perfect the theoretical
perfect product look like and that that
theoretical perfect part is going to be
a moving target because as you learn
more the
definition of or or for that perfect
product will change because you don't
actually know what the perfect product
is but you can successfully approximate
a a more perfect product
so the thing about it like that and then
saying okay now what tools methods
materials whatever do we need to
create in order to get the atoms in that
shape
but for people
rarely think about it that way
but it's a powerful tool
you
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