PHK dan Pengangguran Meningkat, Ekonomi Indonesia Tidak Baik-baik Saja?

Summary

Indonesia's economy faces significant challenges, including rising unemployment and layoffs, with the hotel and restaurant industry hit hard by declining occupancy and soaring operational costs. A recent survey shows 96.7% of business owners in Jakarta facing struggles. With economic growth slowing to 4.87% in early 2025, the government is stepping in with five economic stimulus packages aimed at boosting growth and addressing unemployment. These include increased social aid, food assistance, and wage subsidies. However, the underlying issues of unbalanced job market growth and poor aggregate demand remain, requiring immediate policy responses.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Indonesian economy is facing difficulties, with rising unemployment rates and ongoing layoffs expected to continue into 2025.
• 😀 The hotel and restaurant industry in Jakarta has been struggling due to declining occupancy rates, with 96.7% of surveyed businesses reporting reduced customer visits in early 2025.
• 😀 Increased operational costs, including higher water tariffs, gas prices, and provincial minimum wages, are exacerbating the challenges for businesses in Indonesia.
• 😀 In West Java, around 3,000 hotel workers have had their working hours reduced, and many hotels are facing an average occupancy rate of just 35%.
• 😀 If the government does not implement relaxation measures, the hotel industry may experience layoffs of 20-30% by mid-2025.
• 😀 Macroeconomic indicators show Indonesia's economy is under pressure, with a growth rate of only 4.87% in early 2025.
• 😀 The unemployment rate in Indonesia rose in early 2025, reaching 7.28 million people, reflecting the ongoing economic struggle.
• 😀 The increase in unemployment is attributed to both new entrants to the workforce and those affected by layoffs or PHK (termination).
• 😀 Experts point out that the real problem lies in the unbalanced labor market, where many people of working age cannot find employment despite a demographic bonus.
• 😀 To combat the economic downturn, the government has introduced five stimulus packages, including toll rate discounts, social assistance, food aid, wage subsidies, and reductions in unemployment insurance contributions.
• 😀 The government aims to maintain economic growth at around 5% in the second quarter of 2025 through these measures, urging accelerated implementation of the stimulus programs.

Q & A

What is the current economic situation in Indonesia as of 2025?

The Indonesian economy is facing challenges, with a growth rate of only 4.87% at the start of 2025. Unemployment is rising, and layoffs are expected to continue. The hotel and restaurant industry, in particular, is struggling due to declining customer visits and rising operational costs.

What specific issues are affecting the hotel and restaurant industry in Jakarta?

The industry in Jakarta is facing a significant decline in occupancy, with 96.7% of surveyed hotel and restaurant owners reporting a drop in customer visits. This is compounded by increased operational costs, including a 71% rise in water tariffs, a 20% increase in gas prices, and a 9% increase in provincial minimum wages.

What actions are hotel owners taking in response to these challenges?

Many hotel owners have begun implementing large-scale efficiency measures to cope with the declining revenues and rising costs. This includes reducing operational hours and, in some cases, reducing the workforce.

How have hotel workers been affected in West Java?

In West Java, around 3,000 hotel workers have been impacted by reduced working hours. This is primarily due to the increasing operational costs and a decrease in room occupancy, which averages only 35%.

What is the expected outcome for the hotel industry in Indonesia if conditions do not improve?

If the situation does not improve by the first semester of 2025, layoffs in the hotel sector could range from 20% to 30% of the workforce.

What macroeconomic indicators reflect the current state of the Indonesian economy?

Macroeconomic indicators show pressure on the Indonesian economy. Economic growth in early 2025 was only 4.87%, and the unemployment rate increased to 7.28 million in February 2025, a rise from the previous year.

How is the Indonesian government attempting to address the economic downturn?

The Indonesian government has introduced several measures, including five economic stimulus packages, such as discounts on toll rates, increased social assistance, food aid, wage subsidies, and reductions in unemployment insurance contributions.

What is the current state of inflation and deflation in Indonesia?

As of May 2025, Indonesia experienced 0.37% monthly deflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline from 108.47 in April 2025 to 108.07 in May 2025, reflecting decreased spending by the upper-middle class and financial constraints for the lower-middle class.

What is causing the increase in unemployment in Indonesia?

The increase in unemployment is partly due to a growing workforce, with an annual addition of 3.6 million people, as well as the rise in layoffs (PHK). The challenge lies in balancing the growth of the labor force with the available job opportunities, which is further exacerbated by weak demand in the economy.

How is the government planning to maintain economic growth despite the challenges?

The government aims to maintain a 5% economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 by accelerating and improving the implementation of its stimulus packages. This includes bolstering efforts in wage subsidies, social assistance, and unemployment insurance reforms.