TESLA Stock - Is TSLA Close To A Bottom?

Summary

In this Tesla stock update, the speaker analyzes the current market conditions, highlighting key resistance and support levels. Tesla recently faced a dip but saw a brief rally following Elon Musk’s tweet about a fully autonomous delivery. The speaker discusses both bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of the $316 support and the $330 resistance level. With delivery numbers and earnings on the horizon, the stock's future remains uncertain, and the speaker suggests a potential liquidity sweep or a minor dip before a recovery. The analysis also touches on the SMI and options flow, presenting a mixed outlook for the stock.

Takeaways

• 😀 The video discusses the current state of Tesla's stock, analyzing market movements and offering predictions about future trends.
• 😀 The presenter emphasizes that the video is not financial advice and encourages viewers to join his YouTube membership for stock analysis updates.
• 😀 Elon Musk's announcement about the first fully autonomous delivery of a Tesla Model Y is highlighted as a bullish factor for Tesla's stock.
• 😀 Tesla stock recently closed down 63% but found support at key price levels, creating interest in potential opportunities moving forward.
• 😀 The stock is in a 'limbo spot,' with major resistance around $333–$335 and support zones around $316 and $307.
• 😀 A potential bullish scenario suggests that if the stock holds above support levels, it could see a rally towards $400 per share.
• 😀 In a bearish scenario, if Tesla stock drops below $300, a possible decline to $240–$170 is considered, with the lowest scenario tied to poor delivery and earnings results.
• 😀 On the 4-hour chart, the presenter discusses a head and shoulders pattern and highlights a key demand zone around $316, where Tesla stock has bounced previously.
• 😀 A liquidity sweep could occur below $316, triggering stop losses and leading to a sharp recovery as part of a bullish setup.
• 😀 The weekly chart shows that despite some bearish signals, the presence of exponential moving averages (EMAs) and a potential MACD bullish crossover provide support for a possible uptrend.
• 😀 The presenter is cautiously optimistic about Tesla's potential, balancing both bullish and bearish perspectives while emphasizing the importance of key price levels like $307 for confirmation of the stock's direction.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The video discusses the current status of Tesla stock, including its recent movements, technical analysis, and predictions for the future.

What key event sparked a brief rally in Tesla's stock price?

A tweet by Elon Musk about the first fully autonomous delivery of a Tesla Model Y from the factory to a customer's home, which was completed a day ahead of schedule, sparked a brief rally in the stock.

What are the two major resistances identified in the analysis?

The two major resistances identified are: 1) the mid-330s range (around 333-335), and 2) two trend lines that have caused resistance twice in recent days.

What are the two key supports for Tesla stock mentioned in the video?

The two key supports are: 1) the range around 316, where the stock has bounced before, and 2) the rising trend channel support, which is around 307, give or take.

What does the analyst predict might happen if Tesla's stock falls below 300?

If Tesla's stock falls below 300, the analyst predicts that the stock could enter a more bearish scenario, potentially heading into the 200s with the ultra-bearish case being around 170.

What is the key bullish scenario the analyst hopes for?

The key bullish scenario is that Tesla's stock would drop slightly below 316, triggering a liquidity sweep that would cause a sharp rally, eventually breaking above the 330 resistance and potentially heading back towards 400.

What is the significance of the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) in this analysis?

The SMI is important because it indicates that the stock is close to reaching a potential bottom. When the SMI is low, it often signals that a reversal or rally could be coming, particularly when aligned with support levels.

What does the analyst think about the weekly chart of Tesla stock?

The weekly chart shows that Tesla is above all the exponential moving averages, and the stochastic indicator is above 60, which is a positive sign. However, the analyst is concerned about the appearance of a bearish weekly candle, despite these bullish signals.

What is the analyst’s concern regarding Tesla stock’s technical setup?

The analyst is concerned about the potential head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which could indicate a bearish trend, though the support levels and the SMI signal could help mitigate this risk.

What upcoming event is considered important for Tesla stock?

The upcoming event considered important is Tesla's delivery numbers, which will be released on Wednesday. These numbers are seen as a mini-earnings report and could significantly influence the stock's direction.