Israel - Iran: how 46 years of proxy war led to this conflict

Summary

The Israel-Iran conflict, which has spanned decades, is now intensifying with Israel launching significant strikes on Iran's nuclear program, resulting in missile and drone retaliation from Iran. The two nations have had a fraught relationship since the Iranian revolution of 1979, marked by shifting alliances, proxy wars, and nuclear ambitions. Israel’s strategic advantage is fueled by its alliances, especially with the U.S., and its ability to target key Iranian personnel. While a long-lasting peace remains uncertain, the conflict’s escalation could reshape the region, particularly if Iran’s clerical regime weakens due to internal pressures rather than foreign intervention.

Takeaways

• 😀 Israel's recent strikes on Iran, starting on June 13, have severely impacted Iran's nuclear program and key military personnel.
• 😀 Tensions between Israel and Iran have been escalating for decades, largely due to Iran's nuclear ambitions and hostile rhetoric towards Israel.
• 😀 The relationship between Israel and Iran was once amicable, with Iran recognizing Israel in 1948, but deteriorated after the Iranian Revolution of 1979.
• 😀 Despite animosity, Israel and Iran have cooperated in the past when it served their mutual interests, such as during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
• 😀 Iran's nuclear ambitions began after the Iran-Iraq war, with the country's leadership deciding nuclear weapons were essential for defense against perceived threats.
• 😀 Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it has never publicly acknowledged them, further escalating regional tensions.
• 😀 Over the years, Iran has developed a vast network of proxies in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and militias in Iraq, all of which Israel has targeted in its recent campaigns.
• 😀 The United States has long been Israel's key ally in confronting Iran, with the two nations collaborating on various covert operations, including cyberattacks and assassinations of Iranian scientists.
• 😀 The Iran nuclear deal, signed in 2015, was a point of contention between the US and Israel, with Israel strongly opposing the deal and Donald Trump withdrawing from it in 2018.
• 😀 Recent developments, including the weakening of Iran's proxies and the attack on Hamas in October 2023, have created a situation where Israel has an upper hand in its conflict with Iran.
• 😀 The potential for long-lasting peace in the region remains uncertain, with key factors including the future of Iran’s clerical regime and the broader political landscape in the Middle East.

Q & A

What triggered the recent wave of strikes between Israel and Iran?

The recent wave of strikes was initiated by Israel on June 13th, targeting Iran's nuclear weapons program and key military and scientific personnel. The strikes have continued for days, escalating tensions between the two countries.

How did Israel and Iran's relationship evolve after the creation of Israel in 1948?

Initially, Iran recognized the newly formed Israel in 1948, establishing diplomatic relations. They had a cooperative relationship with Israel importing Iranian oil and facilitating flights between Tel Aviv and Tehran. However, the relationship soured after the Iranian Revolution of 1979 when the Islamic Republic came to power.

What marked the shift in Iran's stance towards Israel after the 1979 revolution?

Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei and the new Islamic Republic government declared Israel an enemy of Islam, referring to it as the 'little Satan.' Iran also began supporting Palestinian causes and advocating for Muslim unity against Israel.

How did Israel and Iran cooperate during the 1980s despite being enemies?

Despite being adversaries, Israel provided military equipment to Iran during its long war with Iraq in the 1980s. Israel saw Iraq as a more immediate threat, and Iran, desperate for weapons, relied on Israel for support.

How did the Iran-Iraq War influence Iran's nuclear ambitions?

The Iran-Iraq War, especially Iraq's use of ballistic missiles against Iranian cities, led Iran to develop its own missile and nuclear capabilities for self-defense. This marked the beginning of Iran's nuclear ambitions, aiming to counter perceived threats from regional rivals like Israel.

What role did the US play in Israel's security concerns regarding Iran?

The United States has been Israel's most crucial ally, providing significant military support and diplomatic backing in the region. The US shares Israel's concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, which led to collaborative efforts, including cyberattacks and direct strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.

How did the 2015 Iran nuclear deal affect US-Israel relations?

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, caused tensions between the US and Israel. Israel, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, vehemently opposed the deal, arguing that it allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and would not prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons in the future.

What major action did President Trump take regarding the Iran nuclear deal?

In 2018, President Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal, calling it a 'horrible one-sided deal.' He reimposed sanctions on Iran and escalated tensions by ordering the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.

How has the October 7th Hamas attack influenced Israel's actions towards Iran?

The October 7th Hamas attack on Israeli soil prompted Israel to retaliate with military actions, including weakening Iran's proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and carrying out joint strikes with the US on Houthi targets in Yemen.

What does Sir Lawrence Freedman suggest is the potential outcome of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict?

Sir Lawrence Freedman suggests that while the current conflict is reshaping the region, it may lead to a weakening of Iran's power and influence in the Middle East. The fall of the Iranian clerical regime, potentially due to internal factors like economic hardship and repression, could result in significant changes in the region, but it would likely be driven by Iranian actions rather than external forces like Israel or the US.