Rata Kanan : Arah Market Crypto di Balik Piala Dunia & Konflik Iran - Israel?!

Summary

In this engaging video, the hosts delve into two major topics: the impact of the World Cup on crypto liquidity and the macroeconomic update on the Israel-Iran war. They explore the 2022 World Cup’s minimal effect on the crypto market, illustrating that despite a surge in betting, it didn't influence Bitcoin or crypto prices. They also discuss geopolitical tensions, focusing on how oil prices and inflation could affect Bitcoin, and the potential scenarios of a war escalation. The session includes data insights and predictions, concluding that the World Cup had little to no impact on the market.

Takeaways

• 😀 The World Cup has no significant effect on crypto liquidity. Betting liquidity from the World Cup is only 3.5% of the crypto market cap, which is too small to impact the market.
• 😀 Historical data from the 2022 World Cup shows no substantial effect on Bitcoin's price or the broader crypto market. The market was already at a bottom during the event.
• 😀 Macroeconomic factors, such as the tightening of interest rates by central banks, have a much larger impact on crypto than events like the World Cup.
• 😀 Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets like the S&P 500 was high during 2022, and there was no clear price movement during the World Cup itself.
• 😀 Crypto market crashes are typically caused by internal industry issues, like the Luna crash, bankruptcies of firms like 3AC, Celsius, and FTX, rather than external events like the World Cup.
• 😀 Oil prices have a significant influence on inflation and subsequently affect assets like Bitcoin. A rise in oil prices tends to push inflation up, prompting central banks to increase interest rates.
• 😀 The ongoing war between Israel and Iran could influence global oil prices due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil passes.
• 😀 There are three potential scenarios for the Israel-Iran conflict based on how the US might respond, which could drastically affect oil prices, ranging from $65 to $130 per barrel.
• 😀 Institutional investors like MicroStrategy and BlackRock hold a significant portion of Bitcoin, with more than 9% of the circulating supply, meaning large price drops are unlikely unless geopolitical tensions escalate significantly.
• 😀 Despite the macroeconomic risks, institutions are still actively buying Bitcoin, and retail investors have already sold their positions. This cycle in the crypto market differs from previous ones due to new financial instruments available for institutions.

Q & A

Does the FIFA World Cup impact crypto liquidity?

Based on the data and analysis, the FIFA World Cup has no significant effect on crypto liquidity. Despite large betting flows during the event, these account for only a small percentage (around 3.5%) of the total crypto market cap, making it unlikely to move the market significantly.

How does the World Cup compare to other major events in terms of its effect on crypto markets?

Similar to previous World Cup events, such as in 2018 and 2022, the World Cup does not appear to have a lasting impact on crypto prices. Macro events like central bank actions or major crashes (e.g., Luna crash, FTX collapse) are much more significant drivers of market changes.

What was the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 during the 2022 World Cup?

During the 2022 World Cup, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 was notably high, with both markets reflecting broader macroeconomic trends rather than the World Cup itself. Bitcoin and the S&P 500 both showed little to no significant movements directly linked to the event.

Why was the 2022 FIFA World Cup not expected to impact Bitcoin prices?

The World Cup's betting liquidity accounted for only about 3.5% of the total crypto market cap, a small enough figure to not influence Bitcoin's price significantly. The broader macroeconomic environment, such as interest rate hikes, had a far greater effect on the market.

How does oil price influence the crypto market?

Oil prices have a strong influence on inflation, which in turn affects central bank policies like interest rate adjustments. Higher oil prices can lead to higher inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates, which negatively impacts risk assets like Bitcoin.

What potential scenarios exist for oil prices in the context of the Israel-Iran conflict?

Three scenarios were discussed for oil prices in relation to the Israel-Iran conflict. If the US strikes and then a ceasefire occurs, oil prices could rise to $130. If diplomacy leads to a ceasefire without strikes, prices could fall to $65. If the conflict continues without US involvement, it is unlikely to significantly impact oil prices.

How might a rise in oil prices lead to increased inflation and affect Bitcoin?

Rising oil prices typically lead to higher inflation, which triggers tighter monetary policies like quantitative tightening (QT). These policies raise interest rates, which negatively impact risk assets such as Bitcoin. As inflation rises, investors tend to shift away from risk assets, reducing demand for crypto.

What role do institutions play in Bitcoin price stability?

Institutional investors, such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock, hold a significant portion of Bitcoin (over 9% of circulating supply). Their purchases provide support for price floors, such as the $100,000 level, making it less likely for the price to fall below that level unless external factors like wars cause higher selling pressure.

What are the key support levels for Bitcoin based on recent data?

Based on the liquidation map and recent data, the strongest support level for Bitcoin is around $100,000. This level has been tested multiple times, and large institutional holders have also accumulated at this price, which further supports it as a key floor.

Do macroeconomic events like the war between Israel and Iran have a direct effect on crypto markets?

While geopolitical events like the Israel-Iran war can affect broader financial markets, their direct impact on crypto markets is often mediated by other macroeconomic factors like interest rates, inflation, and institutional buying/selling. The actual impact on crypto will depend on the war's progression and any potential disruptions in global supply chains or oil production.