This is what sea level rise will do to coastal cities

Summary

The video script discusses the imminent threat of sea level rise due to climate change, with a focus on coastal cities like New York and Miami. It highlights the potential for four feet of sea level rise by 2100 and the economic and infrastructural challenges this poses. The script also covers New York's ambitious $10 billion plan to protect Lower Manhattan and the reality of climate migration, emphasizing the urgency and the need for proactive measures to safeguard coastal areas.

Takeaways

• 🌊 Rising sea levels are a significant concern for coastal cities, with some expected to experience dramatic changes within the next 100 years.
• 🧊 Melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are likened to unplugging freezers, indicating that the process of sea level rise is irreversible.
• 🌍 Climate Central predicts a minimum of four feet of sea level rise by 2100, based on current greenhouse gas emissions.
• 🏙️ Coastal cities like Miami are already experiencing the effects of sea level rise, with water regularly flooding city streets during high tides.
• 🏠 The impact of sea level rise is not only environmental but also economic, as property values in some areas have dropped due to increased flooding.
• 📊 The Surging Seas visualizer by Climate Central illustrates the potential impact of sea level rise on various coastal cities around the world.
• 🌉 New York City has unveiled an ambitious plan to fortify lower Manhattan against rising sea levels, with an estimated cost of 10 billion dollars.
• 🛡️ The plan includes building land out into the East River and installing flood gates to protect against storm surges and regular flooding.
• 💡 The urgency for climate adaptation measures is driven by the economic importance of areas like Lower Manhattan, which houses a significant portion of New York City's jobs and subway lines.
• 🏞️ Some communities in the U.S. are already relocating due to rapidly eroding coasts, highlighting the reality of climate migration.
• 📈 The threat of sea level rise is not distant; it is happening now and will continue to accelerate, affecting infrastructure, property values, and coastlines.

Q & A

What is the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal cities like Florida, New York, Venice, and Alexandria in the next 100 years?

Coastal cities are expected to undergo significant changes due to sea level rise. Florida's beaches and wetlands, as well as cities like New York, Venice, and Alexandria, which have watery boundaries, may look very different in 100 years as sea levels continue to rise.

What does Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central, describe as the inevitable outcome of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere?

Ben Strauss states that the world is guaranteed to see at least four feet of sea level rise by 2100, based on the greenhouse gases that have already been emitted into the atmosphere.

How does the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica relate to the sea level rise?

The melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is likened to unplugging rows of freezers. Once these 'freezers' are unplugged, they will continue to melt, contributing to the sea level rise.

According to the UN, how many people live in coastal areas less than 30 feet above sea level?

The UN reports that over 600 million people live in coastal areas that are less than 30 feet above sea level, making them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise.

What is the potential sea level rise expected by the end of this century according to some scientists?

Some scientists, including Ben Strauss, are expecting a sea level rise of 10 to 20 feet or more by the end of this century if further greenhouse gas emissions continue.

What is happening in Miami that indicates the current impact of rising sea levels?

In Miami, water is already sliding across city streets during high tides, which is a physical sign of the current impact of rising sea levels.

How has climate change affected real estate values in some neighborhoods in the United States?

In some neighborhoods in the United States, real estate values have evaporated due to the increased frequency of floods that were previously rare or non-existent.

What is the Surging Seas visualizer created by Climate Central, and what does it show?

The Surging Seas visualizer is a tool created by Climate Central to demonstrate how coastal cities will fare as the climate heats up. It shows how melting ice could push shorelines inland for cities like New York, New Orleans, Shanghai, and Lagos.

What is New York City's ambitious plan to protect Lower Manhattan from sea level rise?

New York City has unveiled a plan to fortify Lower Manhattan by building outland into the East River by 50 to 100 feet. This is a preventative measure to keep water away from residential and commercial areas.

How much is the estimated cost of New York City's plan to protect Lower Manhattan from sea level rise?

The estimated cost of New York City's plan to protect Lower Manhattan from sea level rise is 10 billion dollars.

What are some of the unique challenges that cities face due to sea level rise?

Cities face unique challenges such as regular flooding of streets during high tides, impacts on underground infrastructure, subway tunnel flooding, and building foundation corrosion due to sea level rise.

What is one of the strategies New York City is considering to protect against sea level rise, aside from building out into the river?

New York City is considering installing flood gates at critical places that would flip up during a flood to keep water out of low-lying land.

What is the economic significance of Lower Manhattan, and why is it a priority for protection against sea level rise?

Lower Manhattan is an economic center of New York City, with one in ten jobs located there and 75% of subway lines passing through it. Protecting Lower Manhattan is crucial to maintaining the city's economic vitality.

What is the current reality of climate migration in the United States, and what does it indicate for the future?

Climate migration is already a reality in the United States, with two communities in Alaska and Louisiana relocating due to rapidly eroding coasts. A 2018 study indicates that as many as 311,000 houses in the U.S. will be vulnerable to chronic flooding by 2045.

Why is it unlikely that cities like Manhattan would be moved due to sea level rise?

Moving a city like Manhattan is not feasible due to the concentration of human lives and economic activity. Instead, it is expected that significant investments will be made in defending these areas against sea level rise.

How does the speed of sea level rise pose a danger, and what is the analogy used to explain this?

The speed of sea level rise is dangerous because it can quickly disrupt infrastructure, property values, and coastlines. The analogy used is that a bullet is not dangerous when held or thrown slowly, but its speed when fired makes it lethal, similarly, the rapid change in sea levels is what makes it a threat.

Outlines

00:00

🌊 Rising Sea Levels and Coastal Cities' Future

The first paragraph discusses the potential transformation of coastal cities like Florida, New York, Venice, and Alexandria due to rising sea levels caused by climate change. It emphasizes the inevitability of four feet of sea level rise by 2100, based on current greenhouse gas emissions, and the significant impact this will have on coastal populations, with over 600 million people living in areas less than 30 feet above sea level. The paragraph introduces Ben Strauss from Climate Central, who highlights the irreversible nature of melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. It also mentions the current issues faced by cities like Miami and the Surging Seas visualizer, which illustrates the potential effects of climate change on various coastal cities. The paragraph concludes with New York's ambitious and costly plan to protect Lower Manhattan from sea level rise, including land reclamation and flood gates.

05:02

🏙️ Economic Implications and Adaptation Strategies

The second paragraph delves into the economic significance of Lower Manhattan and the urgency to protect it from climate change, given its role as a major job center and transportation hub. It contrasts New York's proactive measures with the reality faced by other communities in the U.S., such as those in Alaska and Louisiana, which are already relocating due to coastal erosion. The paragraph cites a study predicting that over 311,000 houses will be at risk of chronic flooding by 2045, indicating that climate migration is an existing issue. It discusses the challenges of relocating large populations and the preference for investing in defending cities rather than moving them. The paragraph also touches on the gradual yet rapid nature of sea level rise and its potential to disrupt infrastructure, property values, and coastlines, emphasizing the need for swift and effective adaptation strategies.

Keywords

💡Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise refers to the increase in the volume of water in the world's oceans, which can be caused by the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, as well as the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In the video's context, sea level rise is a central theme, highlighting its impact on coastal cities and the urgent need for adaptation measures. The script mentions that researchers predict a guaranteed four feet of sea level rise by 2100 based on current greenhouse gas emissions.

💡Coastal Cities

Coastal cities are urban areas located along the shorelines of oceans, seas, or large bodies of water. They are particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise, such as flooding and erosion. The script discusses how cities like New York, Miami, Shanghai, and Lagos are at risk and are already experiencing the early signs of rising sea levels, necessitating significant adaptation efforts.

💡Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are gases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat, contributing to the greenhouse effect and global warming. The script emphasizes that the greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere have locked in a certain amount of sea level rise, illustrating the causal link between human activities and climate change impacts.

💡Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions on Earth. It is primarily driven by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, which increase greenhouse gas concentrations. The video script discusses the role of climate change in causing sea level rise and the subsequent effects on coastal regions and cities.

💡Melting Ice Sheets

Melting ice sheets describe the process by which massive ice formations, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica, lose mass due to rising temperatures. The script likens these ice sheets to 'giant banks of freezers' that are being unplugged, contributing to sea level rise and highlighting the irreversible nature of this process.

💡Climate Central

Climate Central is a non-profit organization mentioned in the script that conducts research and reports on climate change, including the impacts of sea level rise. The organization's work is crucial for understanding and communicating the science behind climate change and its effects on society and the environment.

💡Surge Barriers

Surge barriers, or flood gates, are structures designed to prevent water from entering certain areas during high tides or storm surges. The script discusses New York City's plan to install such barriers at critical locations to protect against sea level rise and flooding, illustrating the city's proactive approach to climate adaptation.

💡Climate Migration

Climate migration refers to the movement of people away from areas affected by climate change impacts, such as sea level rise, extreme weather events, or desertification. The script mentions communities in Alaska and Louisiana that are relocating due to coastal erosion, indicating that climate migration is already occurring and will likely increase in the future.

💡Economic Vitality

Economic vitality refers to the strength and health of an economy, often associated with factors like job creation, business activity, and infrastructure. The script emphasizes the importance of protecting Lower Manhattan, which is a significant economic center for New York City, to maintain the city's economic vitality in the face of climate change.

💡Infrastructure

Infrastructure encompasses the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, such as roads, bridges, and utilities. The video script discusses how sea level rise can disrupt infrastructure, such as by flooding subway tunnels or corroding building foundations, which poses a significant challenge for coastal cities.

💡Adaptation Measures

Adaptation measures are actions taken to reduce the vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change impacts. The script outlines various measures being considered by cities, such as building out into rivers and installing surge barriers, to adapt to the effects of sea level rise and protect against future climate change impacts.

Highlights

Florida's sandy beaches and wetlands, along with cities like New York, Venice, and Alexandria, are at risk of significant changes due to sea level rise in the next 100 years.

Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with sea levels expected to rise and erode coastlines.

Ben Strauss from Climate Central suggests that four feet of sea level rise by 2100 is inevitable due to current greenhouse gas emissions.

The irreversible melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is likened to unplugging freezers, emphasizing the permanence of climate change effects.

Over 600 million people live in coastal areas less than 30 feet above sea level, according to the UN, highlighting the scale of potential displacement.

Further greenhouse gas emissions could lead to a sea level rise of 10 to 20 feet or more by the end of the century, as predicted by scientists.

Miami is already experiencing regular flooding during high tides, indicating the current reality of rising sea levels.

Climate Central's Surging Seas visualizer demonstrates the potential impact of climate change on coastal cities worldwide.

The visualizer aims to make the abstract concept of climate change more tangible and personal for individuals.

New York City has unveiled an ambitious plan to protect Lower Manhattan from rising sea levels, including land reclamation and flood gates.

The cost of New York's plan to safeguard against sea level rise is estimated at 10 billion dollars, reflecting the economic implications of climate change mitigation.

Jainey Bavishi and her team conducted a comprehensive study on the climate risks faced by Lower Manhattan, including sea level rise, storm surge, and extreme heat.

The plan to protect Lower Manhattan is crucial for maintaining the economic vitality of New York City, as it is a major employment and transportation hub.

In contrast to New York, many communities in the U.S. are relocating due to the lack of resources for such extensive preventative measures.

A 2018 study predicts that by 2045, 311,000 houses in the U.S. will be vulnerable to chronic flooding, indicating the urgency of climate migration.

Policy makers in New York are focused on avoiding the chaos of displacing nearly nine million people, emphasizing the importance of proactive climate defense.

Sea levels are not expected to rise suddenly but will gradually seep into our lives, disrupting infrastructure and property values over time.

The speed of climate change and sea level rise is considered the most dangerous aspect, as it can quickly outpace our ability to adapt.

Transcripts

- Picture a map of Florida

with its long sandy beaches and wetlands,

or cities like New York, Venice, and Alexandria,

all metropolises with some pretty watery boundaries.

Now, try to picture what these might look like in 100 years.

The Sunshine State might look very different

than it does today.

The same goes for Manhattan Island or Mumbai.

This is our best guess of a warmer future,

one where sea levels are gnawing away

at the corners of our carefully drawn maps.

Coastal cities are first in line for big changes,

and some that can afford it are gearing up to spend billions

to make sure they survive.

- You might think of the great ice sheets

in Greenland and Antarctica as giant banks of freezers.

And we're running down

those rows of freezers unplugging them.

- That's Ben Strauss,

CEO and Chief Scientist of Climate Central.

They're a non-profit organization

that researches and reports on climate change

including sea level rise.

Researchers like Ben have concluded that the world

is guaranteed to see four feet of sea level rise by 2100

just based on greenhouse gases

we've already put into the atmosphere.

- Once we unplug a freezer, it's unplugged.

You can't plug it back in and it's going to melt.

- That's pretty scary, especially if you live on a coast.

And according to the UN,

more than 600 million people live in coastal areas

that are less than 30 feet above sea level.

And any amount of further emissions

will cause sea levels to rise higher,

with scientists like Ben expecting a rise

of 10 to 20 feet or more by the end of this century.

Some coastal areas are already struggling.

During some high tides in Miami,

water already slides across city streets.

This is happening now

and it's a physical sign of rising sea levels.

- There are already neighborhoods in the United States

that I know about where real estate value has evaporated

because floods that used to be rare or non-existent

now happen multiple times a year.

It's a block here or a block there,

but it's really affecting people.

- Climate Central created a visualizer called Surging Seas

to drive this point home.

It shows how coastal cities will fare

as the climate heats up.

Look at New York, New Orleans, Shanghai or Lagos,

and you'll see how melting ice could push shorelines inland.

It's one of a few projects online

that are designed to make the threat feel immediate.

- I think climate change tends to be such an abstract

and distant seeming problem for most people.

We want to make it as real and personal as possible.

People being able to look up their own neighborhood,

their own home helps to do that.

- Here in New York, the sea level is actually rising faster

than in lots of other parts of the country.

We did a whole video about it.

Anyway, earlier this year,

the city unveiled an ambitious plan

to keep the lower part of Manhattan safe.

- I often said after Sandy, you don't find a lot

of climate change deniers in New York City.

- They plan to fortify the city.

It may actually build outland into the East River

by 50 to 100 feet.

It's not the first time

that New York has reclaimed land from water,

but prior expansions

were mostly done to increase living space,

this one will be to keep the water

away from our living rooms.

The plan will cost an estimated 10 billion dollars.

- We can't overstate the disruption that it would cause

to take no action, so we absolutely have to act.

- Jainey Bavishi is the Director

of the Mayor's Office of Resiliency.

Her team collaborated on a big study

that looked into the climate risks faced by Lower Manhattan.

- So we didn't just look at sea level rise and storm surge,

but we also looked at (mumbling) precipitation

and extreme heat.

And across the city,

we're taking steps to address these multiple hazards

and multiple risks that we face from climate change.

- For anyone living near the coast,

sea level rise presents problems.

But for cities, the issues are really unique.

- Imagine water pouring into the streets on a regular basis

just during high tide.

You open your door

and you walk into a street filled with water.

It would impact underground infrastructure that we rely on.

Imagine subway tunnels getting flooded on a regular basis

or the foundations of buildings corroding.

- In addition to building out into the river,

the city plans to install flood gates at critical places

that would flip up in a flood

to keep water out of low-lying land.

But for now, these plans are still just concepts.

They aren't even sure how they'll pay for it yet,

but private funding is still on the table.

- We're not planning for development,

but that also depends on whether or not

we're able to get funding from the federal government.

We'll have to figure out how to finance this.

If funding doesn't come from the federal government,

then development might be part of the solution.

- [Mary Beth] Wandering around Lower Manhattan,

it's spooky to think about how dramatically

climate change could redraw these city blocks.

And it's obvious that one threatened area here

is driving a lot of the urgency, Wall Street.

- So Lower Manhattan is an economic center of the city.

One in 10 jobs are located in Lower Manhattan.

75% of subway lines go through Lower Manhattan.

So we know that we need to protect Lower Manhattan

in order to protect the economic vitality of New York City.

- But in a lot of places in the U.S. alone,

extreme preventative measures

like New York's are out of reach.

Two communities, one in Alaska and another in Louisiana

are relocating to get away from rapidly eroding coasts.

And a 2018 study

found that as many as 311,000 houses in the United States

will be vulnerable to chronic flooding by 2045.

In other words, climate migration is already a reality.

And policy makers here in New York want to avoid the chaos

that could come from displacing a city

of almost nine million people.

- You can't just pick up and move a city very easily

and because cities are such important concentrations

of human lives and economic activity,

I think we will invest a great deal in defending them.

I don't expect us to be trying to move Manhattan.

I expect us to be defending it as vigorously as we can.

- We might not have as much time

to build out the barricades as you might think.

While most projections focus on 2100,

it's not like sea levels will wait

'til 2099 to suddenly attack.

Water will trickle in slowly, seeping into our lives

and disrupting infrastructure, property values,

and coastlines in the process.

It won't be sudden, but it will be fast.

- It's the speed of change

that I think is the most dangerous thing about it.

A bullet isn't dangerous if I'm holding it in my hand

or throwing it at you.

It's the speed of the bullet that makes it dangerous.

It's the speed of climate change and sea level rise

which are going to make them dangerous.

- If you want to learn more about sea level rise

including why it doesn't rise

at the same rate in all places,

check out our other video

and don't forget to subscribe.

Thanks.